Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Definitions
Flood: Floods occur when a
drainage basin experiences an
unusually intense or prolonged water
input. Flood is usually viewed as an
event in which the streamflow
exceeds the channel capacity,
resulting on overland flow (the
floodplain is inundated), but the http://www.11terra.com/rising_seas
terms is also often applied more
generally to unusually high
discharge events.
http://www.ceh.ac.uk/data/nrfa/data/timeseries_plots.html
Getting exceedence probability
Exceedence probability EP(Q) is the probability of discharge Q exceeding a
specified value of discharge Qsp
http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda362.htm
Return period
If EP(Q) stays constant with time, then the interval between
occurrences of the event Q > Qsp is 1/EP(Q). Thus
exceedance probability can be expressed in terms of a return
period TR(Q), also know as a recurrence interval.
TR(Q) = 1/EP(Q)
TR(Q) = 1/0.01 = 100 years
Z-score transformation
Assume for the moment that the largest discharge events for each year are drawn from
a normal distribution hence having the characteristics depicted in the figure below. For
each discharge value, we can compute a Z-score:
Z = [Q - <Q>]/SD
Where <Q> is the average of all of the largest annual discharge values, Q is the largest
discharge for a given year, and SD is the standard deviation of <Q>.
http://www.thefullwiki.org/Z_scores
Dealing with non-normal distributions
Problem: The distribution of highest annual flows will
probably not be a normal distribution. It is more
likely to be log normal distribution (example at right).
A log normal distribution is probability distribution
whose logarithm is normally distributed.
Solution 2: Parametric - fit an appropriate PDF to The log Pearson III distribution is
the discharge data (e.g., a log normal distribution). used by federal agencies to
The advantage of this approach is that one can model flood flows.
extrapolate beyond the bounds of the actual data to
estimate the high (floods) and low (droughts)
exceedence probability values. However, one must
be sure that the assumed distribution is the correct
one (see Section C-5 in Dingman, 2002).
Flow frequency curve
http://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/wri974073/report.html
Front Range Colorado: Mixed Population Floods
Source: USGS
Predicting flow at un-gauged sites
Source: USGS
Floodplain management
http://www.hurricanekatrina.com/
Floodplain management (cont.)
Channelization: This involves straightening,
deepening or lining a stream channel to enable
the channel to carry larger discharge without
overtopping its banks. Channelization turns out
to have only temporary beneficial effects and
environmental impacts can be severe.
http://www.streamteamok.net/projects/Pictures%20113.jpg
http://www.wbdg.org/resources/env_flood.php
Floodplain management (cont.)
http://www.co.washington.wi.us/departments.iml?Detail=147
Boulder Creek, 1894
Bridge at 4th St.
http://www.boulderfloods.org/Mapviewer/bo
ulder_centrall_floodhazardzone.htm
http://bcn.boulder.co.us/basin/history/1938flood.html
The flood was set off by a severe rainstorm (convection with easterly flow) that stalled
between Estes Park and Loveland on July 31, 1976. The storm dumped nearly 8 inches of
rain in one hour, and up to 12 inches of rain in four hours . The flood claimed 144 lives and
destroyed more than 400 homes. The peak flood flow on the Big Thompson was computed
to be just over 30,000 cfs. A 100 year flood? 1000 year? 10,000 year? There is debate.
Source:
USGS
Source:
USGS
Water Resources Research
Bijou Creek
Big
Thompson
http://www.nwcreation.net/articles/missoulaflood.htm
Lake Bonneville flood, 15,000 BP
http://imnh.isu.edu/digitalatlas/
Lake Bonneville was the precursor of the Great Salt Lake
hydr/lkbflood/lbf.htm
and once covered an area of more than 19,000 square
miles. Approximately 15,000 years ago, the lake suddenly
discharged to the north. This flood is thought to be caused
by capture of the Bear River which greatly increased the
supply of water to the Bonneville Basin. The flood waters
flowed over Red Rock Pass (where the failure occurred) in
southeastern Idaho and continued westward, following the
approximate path of the present Snake River. Peak flow
may have been 15 million cfs. The Melon Gravels
deposited by the flood average three feet in diameter, but
some well-rounded boulders range up to 10 feet in
diameter. Boulders were dumped in unsorted deposits up
to 300 feet thick.
(http://imnh.isu.edu/digitalatlas/hydr/lkbflood/lbf.htm)
http://travellogs.us/Miscellaneous/Geology/Melon%20R
ocks/Melon%20Rocks.htm
The Younger Dryas, 11,500 BP, initiated by a massive flood?
Q = U.Y.B (Eq. 1)
Where U is the average flow velocity (m s-1), Y is the average depth of the flow (m) and
B is the water surface width (m).
U = (um.Y2/3.S1/2)/n (Eq. 2)
Dignman (1984) has shown that the velocity of a flood wave UF is:
UF = 1/B.∂Q/∂Y (Eq. 3)
Where B is the water surface width (channel width), Q is the discharge, and Y is the
average depth of the flow.
Open channel flow and flood waves (cont.)
Q = U.Y.B (Eq. 1)
U = (um.Y2/3.S1/2)/n (Eq. 2)
U = Q/(Y.B)
U = (um.Y2/3.S1/2)/n
Q/(Y.B) = (um.Y2/3.S1/2)/n
Q = Y3/3.B.(um.Y2/3.S1/2)/n
Q = B.(um.Y5/3.S1/2)/n (Eq. 4)
Substitute the Manning Equation (Eq. 2) and Eq. 4 into the equation for flood wave
velocity (Eq. 3) and we get
UF = 5/3.U
Meaning that the flood wave moves faster (1.67 times) the the water itself!
Open channel flow and flood waves (cont.)
Q = B.(um.Y5/3.S1/2)/n
UF = 5/3.U
These two equation work for flood waves that remain within the river channel. The
relationship between flow velocity and flood wave velocity may be altered of the stream
overtops the channel banks and inundates the flood plain.
Velocities tend to be lower in the overbank
portion of the flood because they the water is
shallower and encounters higher resistance due
to vegetation (e.g., trees get in the way). The
flood wave velocity equation can be adjusted to
account for such effects.
http://www.glencanyon.org/library/bureauhistory.php
http://www.grandcanyonairlines.com/gca/gcaimg/fulls/glencanyon4.jpg
Glen Canyon example (cont.)
UF = 1/B.∂Q/∂Y (Eq. 3)
290 ft/415 ft = 70%, i.e., Grand Canyon channel width is 70% of the
channel width at Lee’s Ferry
http://streamflow.engr.oregonstate.edu/analysis/flow/tutorial.htm
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
The CAFEC-P can be obtained from the basic terms of the water balance equation,
which deducts the expected supply from the expected demand factors to get the
water demand that must be met by precipitation.
Finally, dryness or wetness severity is deduced from the moisture anomaly index and
the PDSI of the previous month. Theoretically, PDSI is a standardized measure,
ranging from about −6.0 to +6.0”
From: Spatial Variation and Trends in PDSI and SPI Indices and Their Relation to
Streamflow in 10 Large Regions of China, Jianqing Zhai, Journal of Climate, 23,
649-663.
Palmer Drought Severity Index (cont.)
The figure above shows observed, standardized 4-year–averaged SST anomalies for June
1998 through May 2002 (top), and monthly anomalies for the climatological warm pool region of
the tropical Indian and west Pacific (left) and the climatological cold tongue region of the
equatorial east Pacific (right)
Modeling temperature and precipitation anomalies
Global climate models (GCMs) driven by the observed monthly varying anomalies in sea
surface temperature were able to reproduce the basic pattern of annual averaged surface
temperature (left) and precipitation (right) anomalies observed over the 4-year period June
1998–May 2002. Conclusion: the drought was largely driven by ocean conditions.
Atmospheric circulation anomalies
The observed pressure height anomaly field at the 200 hPa level over the 4-year period June
1998–May 2002 (left) shows an almost uninterrupted zonal belt of unusually high pressure
spanning the middle latitudes. The anomaly field as simulated by atmospheric GCMs forced
with the observed, monthly varying SST and sea ice anomalies of the period is similar. Drying
of the lower atmosphere is consistent with this pattern.
Drought feedback processes
http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7t.html http://severe-wx.pbworks.com/w/page/
15957990/Thunderstorms
Rain follows the plow?
P = Total precipitation
PL = Precipitation of local origin
ET = Evapotranspiration
A = Area of watershed
F+ = Vertically integrated vapor flux
directed into the watershed (advective
moisture term)
http://www.bopmyspace.com/image_50/thunderstorm
F+
From the formulation of
Brubaker et al. (2003): P E
T
PL/P = 1/(1+ 2.F+/ET.A)
The problem: For most regions, including the American west, the bulk of precipitation is
“imported” in that the water vapor associated with the precipitation comes from outside
of the region.
Hence:
http://memory.loc.gov/award/nbhips/lca/107/10785r.jpg