The Week Ahead
October 4-8, 2010
The Golden Rule
by Avery Shenfeld
Economics What has the gold bugs so excited these
days? Everything and anything. So many
of the traditional correlations to the gold
price are breaking down, that it’s hard to
Avery Shenfeld discern what’s moving the yellow metal to
(416) 594-7356
avery.shenfeld@cibc.ca
new heights. Even we’ve caught the fever,
having recently nudged our 2011 target a
Benjamin Tal bit higher to US $1,400.
(416) 956-3698
benjamin.tal@cibc.ca
The golden rule used to be that inflation, or
Peter Buchanan fear of inflation, was the prime driver for the
(416) 594-7354
peter.buchanan@cibc.ca gold price, with its value in US dollars then
presumably tied to prospects for inflation
Warren Lovely
(416) 594-8041
stateside. My colleague Peter Gibson, CIBC’s
warren.lovely@cibc.ca equity strategist, pointed out that in real
terms some of the best runs for gold were
Krishen Rangasamy
(416) 956-3219
in periods of deflation, when gold held up
krishen.rangasamy@cibc.ca while prices for other goods and services
dropped. Certainly, it’s hard to see how gold
could be soaring on fears of US inflation,
given where the CPI now sits, and with rock
bottom long Treasury yields suggesting bond
market players are counting on low inflation
“the key is to
forever. Although hotter in some emerging
discern what could
break the back
markets, few other major countries in the
of what looks to world are fighting a serious battle against
simply be a join- inflation.
the-bandwagon
run.” Gold’s latest jump was tied to chatter about
US quantitative easing. Gold bugs speak in
hushed tones about secret plans to debase
the US currency, making gold the safe
refuge from Ben Bernanke’s greenback
printing press. QE talk did take the dollar
weaker against other majors, so if gold is
just another reserve asset, it presumably
should rally. But gold’s correlation with the
US$ hasn’t been a consistent relationship in
the past six months (Chart).
http://research.cibcwm.com/res/Eco/EcoResearch.html
CIBC World Markets Inc. • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ WGEC1 • (416) 594-7000
C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p • 3 0 0 M a d i s o n A v e n u e , N e w Yo r k , N Y 1 0 0 1 7 • ( 2 1 2 ) 8 5 6 - 4 0 0 0 , ( 8 0 0 ) 9 9 9 - 6 7 2 6
That’s in part because, earlier on, the dollar’s
fate was tied inversely to equity market
sentiment, with the greenback being seen
as a safe haven. Then the gold bugs argued
that its low beta made gold an alternative
investment, along with toll roads, woodlands,
and Beatles memorabilia. That golden rule
was then broken in September, when both
stocks and bullion prices did well.
Maybe the new golden rule is simply to buy
gold willy nilly, because everyone else is. If
that’s the only real logic, gold risks becoming
a bubble that will burst down the road. So
for investors piling in today, the key is to
discern what could break the back of what
looks to simply be a join-the-bandwagon
run.
The greatest threat would be rising interest
rates. The cost of a position in gold is the
interest foregone, which in US dollar terms
is getting close to zero. Short rates look to
stay that way, and there’s only so far the
curve will steepen until prospects for Fed
rate hikes are at least in distant sight. If so,
gold has room to run for now, but look for
a swift retreat, perhaps in the latter half of
2012 if America’s economy is on a better
track by then.
US$ and Gold: No Link
90 US$/oz 1350
Trade-weighted
88 US$ index (L) Gold price
1300
(R)
86
1250
84
1200
82
80
1150
78 1100
Apr10 May10 Jul10 Sep10
 Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast
` CANADA UNITED STATES
CIBC Consensus Prior CIBC Consensus Prior
Monday AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $29B, 6-M BILLS $29B
October 4

10:00 AM
FACTORY ORDERS M/M (Aug) (H) -0.2% -0.4% 0.1%
PENDING HOME SALES M/M (Aug) (M) 3.8% 3.3% 5.2%

Speaker(s):
3:00 PM and 7:30 PM: Ben Bernanke (Chairman)

Tuesday CASH MANAGEMENT BUYBACK (Dec '10 - Dec '11) - $500MM AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $25B (prev)
October 5
Speaker(s): 10:00 AM
1:00 PM Tiff Macklem (Deputy) ISM - NON-MANUFACTURING (Sep) (L) 52.0 51.5

Wednesday AUCTION: 10-YR CANADAS $3B 7:00 AM

October 6 MBA-APPLICATIONS Oct-1 (L) -0.8%
10:00 AM
IVEY PMI (Sep) (L) 62.5 65.9 8:15 AM
ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (Sep) (L) 20K -10K

Thursday 8:30 AM 8:30 AM

October 7 BUILDING PERMITS M/M (Aug) (L) -2.0% -3.3% CONTINUING CLAIMS Sep-25 (L) 4448K 4457K
INITIAL CLAIMS Oct-2 (L) 455K 453K

10:30 AM
ICSC CHAIN STORE SALES Y/Y (Sep) (H) 3.2%

3:00 PM
CONSUMER CREDIT (Aug) (L) -3.3B -3.6B

Speaker(s):
1:30 PM Richard W. Fisher (Dallas)

Friday 7:00 AM 8:30 AM

October 8 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Sep) (H) 8.1% 8.0% 8.1% NON-FARM PAYROLLS (Sep) (H) -8K 5K -54K
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (Sep) (H) 10K 15K 35.8K UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Sep) (H) 9.7% 9.7% 9.6%
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ALL EMPLOYEES M/M
(Sep) (H) 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
8:15AM AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS ALL EMPLOYEES (Sep) (H) 34.2 34.2 34.2
HOUSING STARTS SAAR (Sep) (M) 178K 180K 183K MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS (Sep) (H) 20K 6K -27K

10:30 AM 10:00 AM
BANK OF CANADA BUSINESS OUTLOOK AND SENIOR LOAN OFFICER SURVEYS WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M (Aug) (H) 0.5% 1.3%

H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Consensus Source: Reuters (Canada), Bloomberg (US)
CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—October 4-8, 2010

Week Ahead’s Market Call

by Avery Shenfeld

In the US, Friday’s jobs figures will take centre stage, and while a negative print will be
chalked up to the final leg down for census employment, private sector hiring should still
below 100K — not the makings of a recession, but a hallmark of sluggish growth. Otherwise,
the week is filled with secondary indicators that we doubt will do much to move markets.

In Canada, the jobs data are the last major news before the Bank of Canada has to make its
next decision on rates, and we see a somewhat subdued 10K employment gain as the final
evidence that Carney will leave rates at 1% this month. The Bank also pays some attention
to its business outlook survey, where we expect businesses will be less enthusiastic on sales
volume growth ahead than in the summer edition. Housing starts have been declining since
April and we expect to see a continuation of that trend in the September report.


CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—October 4-8, 2010

Week Ahead’s Key Canadian Number: Canadian Employment

Labour Force Survey—September 150 000s % 9.0
(Friday, 7:00 a.m.) 100 8.5

50 8.0
Krishen Rangasamy (416) 956-3219 0 7.5

-50 7.0

-100 6.5

-150 6.0
CIBC Mkt Prior Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep10F

Employment 10K 15K 35.8K Month/Month Chg (L) Jobless Rate (R)
Unemployment Rate 8.1% 8.0% 8.1%
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC

Canada’s labour market has looked quite healthy in
this recovery, having recouped all jobs lost during the
recession. However, beneath the surface, the latest
employment data were far from impressive.
The cutbacks and then addition of teaching positions in
the last two months, had somewhat muddied the labour
market picture. But excluding teachers, employment was
actually down in August, for the first time this year. And
putting July and August together, full-time employment
fell over the period. More importantly with regards to the
sustainability of job creation, private sector payrolls were
trimmed for the second month in a row in August.
10,000 net new jobs in September reflects such caution
and should keep the unemployment rate unchanged at
8.1%.
Forecast Implications — Canada’s labour market
boom seems to be over. While that does not mean that
massive job cuts are on the horizon, the slow growth
picture will result in a deceleration in the pace of hiring,
particularly in the services sector (eg. government). We’re,
therefore, unlikely to see a major improvement in the
unemployment rate over the next few quarters, which
warrants an extended pause in the Bank of Canada’s
tightening cycle.

The added uncertainty in light of recent economic Market Impact — We are too close to consensus to
developments may have convinced businesses to exercise cause any market reaction if our call is on the mark.
more caution in extending payrolls. Our call for only


CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—October 4-8, 2010

Week Ahead’s Key US Number: US Payroll Employment

000s %
Non-Farm Payrolls—September 500 12
400
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.) 300 11
200 10
100
0 9
Peter Buchanan (416) 594-7354 -100 8
-200
-300 7
-400
-500 6
-600 5
-700
CIBC Mkt Prior -800 4
Sep08 Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 Sep10F
Non-Farm Payrolls -8K 5K -54K Monthly Payroll Chg (L)
Unemployment Rate 9.7% 9.7% 9.6%
Unemployment Rate (R)

Payrolls likely fell by about 8K in September, coming
in a bit below the consensus, as layoffs by the Census
Bureau and construction industry took a toll. Declines
there should offset a better print in manufacturing, that
was affected in August by unusual seasonal employment
patterns in the auto sector.
The legions of temporary workers the Census Bureau
employed earlier in the year are now almost all gone. A
78K hit to the non-farm payrolls, based on the Census
Bureau’s weekly tracking report, will be the last sizeable
impact from that source. Excluding the changes at the
Census Bureau, government employment should be little
changed on the month as in August.
Private sector payrolls likely rose by 70K on the month,
not much different from August. The health care industry
has generated about 20K jobs on average per month this
year, and further gains there should help to lift services
employment. Automakers also put fewer people on
temporary furlough early in the summer, translating into
a smaller than usual number of rehires in August. That
contributed centrally to a 27K drop in manufacturing
employment after seven straight gains. Other indicators
like the ISM employment component’s 56.5 reading
suggest that manufacturing is one sector that is in fact
adding jobs. We consequently expect the job count to
return to the positive column with a 20K net factory hires
in September.
Gains in those sectors should be countered by a sharp 30-
40K loss in construction, as employment in the industry
reacts with a lag to the freefall in new homebuilding
activity in the wake of the home tax credit’s expiry.
The sector has shed few jobs in recent months despite
renewed woes in the residential sector and actually
posted an increase in August due to the end of a major
strike.
The unemployment rate is expected to inch up by a
further tick this month to 9.7% as hiring once again fails
to offset labor market growth. Average hourly earnings
are expected to post a 0.2% increase.
Forecast Implications: While Q3 employment growth
will likely come in a bit above Q2’s revised 1.7% pace, GDP
would have to be expanding at rate of 3.0% or more to
bring unemployment down materially. We don’t see that
happening for quite some time. While employment has
risen by over 700K since the start of the year even with
recent declines in the headline due to Census layoffs, that
reverses only a tenth of the recession’s extraordinarily
heavy toll.
Market Impact: Investors will as always be paying close
attention to the report. Our slightly below consensus
forecast creates a slight downside risks for equities and
the US dollar, upside for fixed income.


CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—October 4-8, 2010

Equity Insights
Peter Buchanan

Materials and Staples Lift TSX Back to Spring Peak Third Quarter Performance of TSX Components

It’s taken a while but the TSX Composite regained its high TSX Composite
for the year this week, taking out the previous peak set Materials
back on April 26th. The most energized performances of Consumer Staples
late have come from the materials and consumer staples Utilities
groups. While record gold prices have helped lift the Health Care
materials sector, the fertilizer and base metals segments Industrials
strong performance underscores the broad basis of the Telecoms
recent rally. A jackrabbit start by no means ensures a Cons Disc
race-winning performance. The infotech and financial Financials
group, which has been hampered by insurance segment, Energy
have both been unable to maintain market-beating pace Info Tech % change

seen early in the year. -5 0 5 10 15 20

Short Covering Not a Factor in the Summer Rally

Short Interest Ratio by Global Equity Sector
Stocks may be up but short sellers aren’t throwing in
the towel as yet. Indicating that short covering hasn’t Financials
been a factor in the rally, short interest in the S&P 500 Con. Staples
has actually risen since mid-year when the US large cap Comm.
index tested its most recent lows to 4.6%. That’s the Utilities
most since November 2009. Globally, the data suggests
Con. Cyclicals
financial institutions continued to top short-sellers’ list.
Energy
That likely attests to the belief that Europe’s ongoing debt
woes create risks at the institutional level, as do renewed Industrials

housing troubles stateside. The telecoms have been the Technology

S&P 500 top performers in the last quarter. That sector’s Diversified
high ranking suggests some participants are betting that Basic Materials %
the rally there has now seen its best days.
0 1 2 3 4 5

Retailers, if Not Consumers, Are Feeling Festive Source: Data Explorers

A Better Though Not Great Picture for Retail Holiday

US consumers glum mood hasn’t so far caused retailers Hiring
to shelve their holiday hiring plans. Figures released this
week by Challenger Gray suggest the sector will hire 800
chg, Sept-Dec, NSA ('000)
600,000 additional workers in the last three months of 700
2010. Our estimates suggest that’s likely to translate into +600K
600
a modest increase of 30,000 in payrolls for the quarter as
500
a whole after seasonal adjustment, although the effect
400
could be more visible in November, when most temporary
300
hiring occurs. Whether any cheer this sales season carries
into 2011 will depend on what Congress does about 200
extending tax cuts. While last week’s vote by the Senate 100
dims hopes for pre-election action, we still think Congress 0
will act in due course to lessen what would otherwise be 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
a near-record level of fiscal drag in 2011. [Challenger
Gray]


CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—October 4-8, 2010

Currency Currents
Krishen Rangasamy

The C$ Diverges From Trade and Everything Else Canadian Dollar and Terms of Trade
reverse
Prior to the recession, the terms of trade (ratio of export 1.35 axis 0.90
to import prices) and the Canadian dollar were more 1.30 1.00
closely related than they are today. The terms of trade in 1.25 1.10
Q3 2010 would have been more in line with a loonie near 1.20
1.20
1.12 C$/US$. The divergence between the C$ and trade 1.15
have widened during the recovery as foreign portfolio 1.30
1.10
inflows into Canadian bonds have offset trade-related 1.05 1.40
net outflows. But bond-related inflows may have been 1.50
1.00
stronger than what’s implied by interest rate differentials
0.95 1.60
with the US. Our error-correction model, which takes into
00Q3 02Q3 04Q3 06Q3 08Q3 10Q3
account the Canada-US spread in addition to commodity
prices, suggests a fair value of around 1.10 for the loonie, Terms of trade (L) C $/US$ (R)

a far-cry from today’s heady level. No wonder we’re Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
running a large current account deficit.
Euro Ignoring Sovereign Risks For Now

Euro Buyers Looking the Other Way 500 negative 1.45

correlation
450
breaks down 1.40
The euro’s strength this past week was more a story of 400
US$ weakness than anything else. Note that the common 350
1.35
currency advanced almost 2% against the greenback in
300 1.30
a week when Spain was downgraded by a rating agency
250
and Ireland fessed up to a massive deficit. Factoring in the 1.25
200
cost of the recent bank bailout, the Irish budget deficit 1.20
will be a shocking 32% of GDP, which explains why Irish 150

CDS spreads have rocketed and bond auctions, slated for 100 1.15
Jan10 Mar10 Jun10 Sep10
the next two months, have been cancelled. But there’s
also a limit to how far the euro and its fundamentals can Irish C DS spread (L) US$/€ (R)
diverge.
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC

Tankan Survey Participants Hopeful (L), But Seem Too

Japanese Growth to Moderate Optimistic About Yen (R)
yen/US$ expectations
Japan’s Tankan index of large manufacturers (measuring 15 % 30 91 for H2 vs. current pace
favorable minus unfavorable responses) rose further in 10 20
89
Q3, albeit at a slower pace. The index, which tends to 5 10
track GDP, posted a 7 point increase suggesting GDP may 0 0 87
?
have grown further in the quarter. Of note, however, was -5 -10
85
the expectation among survey participants that the index
-10 -20
would worsen in Q4. And that, despite expecting a more 83
-15 -30
competitive 90 yen/US$ exchange rate in the second half
-20 -40 81
of the year. It is going to take a much more aggressive 04Q3 06Q3 08Q3 10Q3
survey

September

average

intervention stance, and likely more time, to weaken

June

so far
survey

GDP growth annualized (L)

H2

the yen that far suggesting that Japanese exporters will

Tankan Large Manuf. index,
continue to be challenged by yen strength. chg (R)

Source: Bank of Japan, CIBC


CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—October 4-8, 2010

CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES

September/October 2010
MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY

27 28 29 GDP BY
30 1
INDUSTRY
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM (2002$)
8:30 AM M (NSA) Y
GDP IND.PROD.
JUN -0.9 0.2
M M
JUL 0.0 0.8
MAY 0.1 1.0
AUG 0.4 0.6
JUN 0.2 0.6
JUL -0.1 0.0

4 5 6 7 LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8
INTERNATIONAL BUILDING 7:00 AM AVG
RESERVES IVEY PURCHASING
PERMITS ($) EMPLOY UNEMP HRLY
8:15 AM $BN $BN MANAGERS’ INDEX
8:30 AM M M (HOUSE) RATE EARN
CHANGE LEVEL 10:00 AM
(RES) (NON-RES) M Y % Y
JUL 1.918 57.3 JUN -4.0 23.8 JUL -0.1 2.3 8.0 2.6
AUG 0.589 57.9 JUL -2.4 -4.3 AUG 0.2 2.4 8.1 2.3
SEP AUG SEP
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM 000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
JUL 189 67
AUG 183 65
SEP
Bank of Canada
Business Outlook Survey

11 12 13 14 15
SURVEY OF
MERCHANDISE TRADE MANUFACTURING
NEW HOUSING PRICE 8:30 AM SHIPMENTS
8:30 AM $MN 12 MO.
INDEX M Y
BALANCE
8:30 AM JUN -0.1 13.5
JUN -1,814 -4,083
JUL -2,735 -5,914 JUL -0.9 6.8
AUG AUG
THANKSGIVING DAY CAR & TRUCK SALES
(HOLIDAY) 8:30 AM 000’s (AR)
(MarketS Closed) TOTAL DOM.BUILT CAR
SALE
JUN 1,588 379
JUL 1,626 391
AUG
WAGE SETTLEMENTS
10:00 AM (%)
PVT. PUB. TOT.
JUN 2.5 2.0 2.2
JUL 2.2 1.3 1.8
AUG

18 19 20 21 CONSUMER 22
INT’L TRANSACTIONS LEADING INDICATOR PRICE INDEX
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET 8:30 AM 7:00 AM
WHOLESALE TRADE M (NSA) Y
8:30 AM
8:30 AM JUL 0.5 1.8
BONDS MONEY S TOCKS TOT Bank of Canada Bank of Canada
MARKET Interest Rate Announcement Monetary Policy Report AUG -0.1 1.7
JUN 7.0 -1.6 0.0 5.4 SEP
JUL 5.2 1.0 -0.7 5.5 RETAIL TRADE
AUG 8:30 AM (Current$)
M Y
JUN 0.0 3.7
JUL -0.1 3.3
AUG

25 26 27 28 GDP BY
29
INDUSTRY
8:30 AM (2002$)
Payroll employment, GDP IND.PROD.
Earnings & Hours M M
8:30 AM JUN 0.2 0.6
JUL -0.1 0.0
AUG
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM M (NSA) Y
JUL 0.0 0.8
AUG 0.4 0.7
SEP

All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for histori-
cal data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.


CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—October 4-8, 2010

U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES

September/October 2010
MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
27 28 29 30 PERS. INCOME 1
& OUTLAYS
GDP 8:30 AM SAVING
8:30 AM (AR) INCOME CONS RATE
REAL IMPLICIT M M AR
S&P/CASE-SHILLER GDP DEFLATOR JUN 0.0 0.0 6.0
HOUSE PRICE INDEX 10:Q1(F) 3.7 1.1 JUL 0.2 0.4 5.9
9:00 AM 10:Q2(F) 1.7 2.0 AUG 0.5 0.4 5.8
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP. PRICES
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CORPORATE PROFITS INDEX INDEX
10:00 AM 8:30 AM JUL 55.5 57.5
AUG 56.3 61.5
CHICAGO PMI SEP 54.4 70.5
9:45 AM MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F)
10:00 AM
2-Yr NOTE AUCTION 5-Yr NOTE AUCTION 7-Yr NOTE AUCTION 2-, 5-, 7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR) Y
JUL 11.527 2.2
AUG 11.439 -19.1
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (10:40) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30) SEP

EMPLOY.
4 5 6 3, 10-Yr NOTE
7 SITUATION 8
FACTORY ORDERS 8:30 AM
ADP SURVEY ANNOUNCEMENT
10:00 AM M Y NON- CIV AVG
8:15 AM
JUN -0.6 11.9 ISM NON-MFG SURVEY 30-Yr BOND FARM UNEMP HRLY
JUL 0.3 9.4 10:00 AM ANNOUNCEMENT PAYROLL RATE EARN
AUG (000s) M % Y
CONSUMER CREDIT
Chairman Bernanke JUL -54 9.5 2.3
3:00PM
speaks in Rhode Island @ AUG -54 9.6 2.1
3:00 PM ET BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (10:40) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30) SEP

PRODUCER
11 12 13 PRICE INDEX 14 RETAIL
SALES 15
8:30 AM M (SA) Y (NSA)
8:30 AM M Y
JUL 0.2 4.2
JUL 0.3 5.4
COLUMBUS DAY AUG 0.4 3.1
AUG 0.4 3.6
(HOLIDAY) SEP
SEP
(Bond Market Closed) GOODS & SERVICES CPI
BALANCE (BOP) $B 8:30 AM M(SA) Y (NSA)
FOMC Minutes 8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT JUL 0.3 1.2
JUN -62.2 12.5 -49.9 AUG 0.3 1.1
JUL -55.2 12.5 -42.8 SEP
AUG
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION 10-Yr NOTE AUCTION 30-Yr BOND AUCTION 10:00 AM
MONEY SUPPLY M-2
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
4:30 PM M Y
TREASURY BUDGET 10:00 AM
JUL 0.0 2.0
2:00 PM AUG 0.5 2.8 3-, 10-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
SEP
30-Yr BOND SETTLEMENT
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (10:40) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)

NET CAPITAL
18 HOUSING
19 20 21 22
LEADING INDICATOR
INFLOWS TICS STARTS
10:00 AM
9:00 AM 8:30 AM MIL (AR) M
CAPACITY UTIL/IND. PROD. JUL 0.541 0.4 PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
9:15 AM LEV M Y AUG 0.598 10.5 10:00 AM
JUL 74.6 0.6 7.4 SEP
Beige Book 2, 5, 7-Yr NOTE
AUG 74.7 0.2 6.2
ANNOUNCEMENT
SEP
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (10:40) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)

25 26 27 28 8:30 AM (AR)
GDP
29
DURABLE
REAL IMPLICIT
GOODS ORDERS
GDP DEFLATOR
S&P/CASE-SHILLER 8:30 AM M Y
10:Q1(F) 3.7 1.1
HOUSE PRICE INDEX JUL 0.7 9.7
10:Q2(F) 1.7 2.0
9:00 AM AUG -1.3 11.2
SEP
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX
8:30 AM WAGES &
EXISTING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE NEW HOME SALES TOTAL SALARY BEN.
HOME SALES 10:00 AM 10:00 AM 10:Q1 0.6 0.4 1.1
10:00 AM 10:Q2 0.5 0.4 1.6
10:Q3
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
2-Yr NOTE AUCTION 5-Yr NOTE AUCTION 7-Yr NOTE AUCTION
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F)
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (10:40) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30) 10:00 AM

All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for histori-
cal data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.

CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead—October 4-8, 2010

Conflicts of Interest: CIBC World Markets’ analysts and economists are compensated from revenues generated by various CIBC World Markets businesses, including CIBC World Markets’ Investment Banking
Department. CIBC World Markets may have a long or short position or deal as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. The
reader should not rely solely on this report in evaluating whether or not to buy or sell the securities of the subject company.
Legal Matters: This report is issued and approved for distribution by (i) in Canada by CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the IIROC and CIPF, (ii) in the UK, CIBC World Markets plc, which is regulated by
the FSA, and (iii) in Australia, CIBC World Markets Australia Limited, a member of the Australian Stock Exchange and regulated by the ASIC (collectively, “CIBC World Markets”). This report is distributed in the
Unites States by CIBC World Markets Inc. and has not been reviewed or approved by CIBC World Markets Corp., a member of the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”), NASD and SIPC. This report is intended for
distribution in the United States only to Major Institutional Investors (as such term is defined in SEC 15a-6 and Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) and is not intended for the use of
any person or entity that is not a major institutional investor. Major Institutional Investors receiving this report should effect transactions in securities discussed in the report through CIBC World Markets Corp. This
report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional investor and retail clients of CIBC World Markets in Canada, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed
herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. This document and any of the products and information contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors in the United
Kingdom. Such investors will not be able to enter into agreements or purchase products mentioned herein from CIBC World Markets plc. The comments and views expressed in this document are meant for the
general interests of clients of CIBC World Markets Australia Limited.
This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of CIBC World Markets Inc. Before making an investment decision on the basis of any
information contained in this report, the recipient should consider whether such information is appropriate given the recipient’s particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. CIBC World
Markets Inc. suggests that, prior to acting on any information contained herein, you contact one of our client advisers in your jurisdiction to discuss your particular circumstances. Since the levels and bases of
taxation can change, any reference in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice; as with any transaction having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their
own tax advisors. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The information and any statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that they are accurate or complete, and they should not be relied upon
as such. All estimates and opinions expressed herein constitute judgements as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
Although each company issuing this report is a wholly owned subsidiary of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (“CIBC”), each is solely responsible for its contractual obligations and commitments, and any
securities products offered or recommended to or purchased or sold in any client accounts (i) will not be insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”), the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation
or other similar deposit insurance, (ii) will not be deposits or other obligations of CIBC, (iii) will not be endorsed or guaranteed by CIBC, and (iv) will be subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the
principal invested. The CIBC trademark is used under license.
(c) 2010 CIBC World Markets Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized use, distribution, duplication or disclosure without the prior written permission of CIBC World Markets Inc. is prohibited by law and may result
in prosecution.

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