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The probability you wil guess the first question of a true/false test
correctly is one half. This is first “trial.” The probability that you will
guess correctly on the second question (second trial) is also one half.
The probability of success on the third trial is also one half, and so on.
There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh via US Airways into the
Bradford, Pennsylvaia Regional Airport. Suppose the probability that
any flight arrives late is 0.2.
What is the probability that none of the flights are late today? What is
the probability theat exactly one of the flights is late today?
The probability that exactly two of the five flights will arrive late today is:
x
P(2) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
2
= 5 C2 (0.2) (1 − 0.2)5−2 = (10)(0.04)(0.5120) = 0.2048
The probability that exactly three of the five flights will arrive late today
is:
x
P(3) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
3
= 5 C3 (0.2) (1 − 0.2)5−3 = (10)(0.008)(0.64) = 0.0512
The probability that exactly five of the five flights will arrive late today is:
x
P(5) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
5
= 5 C5 (0.2) (1 − 0.2)5−5 = (1)(0.0003)(1) = 0.0003
Hospital records show that the patients suffering from a certain disease,
75% die of it. What is the probability that of 6 randomly selected
patients, 4 will recover?
In this case, n = 6, π = 0.25 if you let “x” equal the number of recover
patients
The probability of 4 from 6 patients will recover is:
x
P(4) = n Cx π (1 − π)n−x
4
= 6 C4 (0.25) (1 − 0.25)6−4 = (15)(0.0039)(0.5625) = 0.0329
µ=n·π (5)
σ 2 = n · π · (1 − π) (6)
µ = nπ = (5)(0.2) = 1
σ 2 = nπ(1 − π) = 5(0.2)(1 − 0.2) = 0.8
µ = nπ = (6)(0.05) = 0.30
σ 2 = nπ(1 − π) = 6(0.05)(0.95) = 0.285
(1) If n remains the same but π increase from 0.05 to 0.95, for example,
the shape of the distribution changes.
2. What is the probability that 7 or fewer of the drivers are wearing seat
belts?
E (X ) = µ (8)
2
V (X ) = σ = µ (9)
(0.3)0 (e −0.3 )
P(0) = = 0.7408
0!
74 percent of the flights will have no lost baggage.
(0.3)1 (e −0.3 )
P(1) = = 0.2222
1!
We would expect to find exactly one lost bag on 22 percent of the flights.
(0.3)2 (e −0.3 )
P(2) = = 0.0333
2!
We would expect to find exactly two lost bag only 3.33 percent of the
flights.
A life insurance salesman sells on the average 3 life insurance policies per
week. Use Poisson’s law to calculate the probability that in a given week
he will sell...
(a) Some policies
(b) 2 or more policies but less that 5 policies
(c) Assuming that there are 5 working days per week, what is the
probability that in a given day he will sell one policy?
In this case µ = 3
“some policies” means “1 or more policies.” So,
(b) The probability of selling 2 or more, but less that 5 policies is:
0.61 e −0.6
P(1) = = 0.3293
1!
Example:
Twenty sheets of aluminum alloy were examined for surface flaws. The
frequency of the number of sheets with a given number of flaws per sheet
was as follows:
Number of flaws Frequency
0 4
1 3
2 5
3 2
4 4
5 1
6 1
September 10, 2016 55 / 62
What is the probability of finding a sheet chosen at random which
contains 3 or more surface flaws?
The average number of flaws for the 20 sheets is:
46
µ= = 2.3
20
The probability of finding 3 or more surface flaws is:
0.81 e −0.8
P(1) = = 0.3595
1!
In you use Binomial distribution formulas, in this case
n = 4, 000, π = 0.0002 and x = die then,
1
P(1) = 4,000 C1 (0.0002) (1 − 0.0002)4,000−1
= 3, 999(0.0002)(0.4494) = 0.3594
Example:
1. A typist makes on average 2 mistake per page. What is the propbability
of a particular page having no error on it?
2. A computer crashes once every 2 days on average. What is the
probability of there being 2 crashes in one week?