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August 28, 2018

To: Interested Parties


Fr: Kevin Akins, Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
Re: Summary of Recent Polling in Florida’s 16th Congressional District
A recent survey in Florida’s 16th Congressional District finds that Democratic nominee David
Shapiro and six-term Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan are running neck-and-neck, with
Shapiro acquiring 44% of the initial vote compared to Buchanan’s 48%. With the general
election less than 10 weeks away, Shapiro has a real path to victory due to his compelling
background and values, which become apparent as the race tightens to a 1-point margin in a
balanced positive informed vote.

This race – which has earned a spot on the DCCC’s competitive Red to Blue program – is a
strong pickup opportunity this cycle. Despite Buchanan spending nearly $1 million on cable and
broadcast advertisements since April of this year, Shapiro has narrowed the race and can flip
this seat if he continues to have the resources to communicate in a crowded, expensive media
market.

Key Findings:
• Shapiro within striking distance of incumbent Congressman Buchanan.
Overall, Shapiro trails by a very narrow margin (44% Shapiro / 48% Buchanan / 8%
undecided). However, Shapiro holds a substantial +22 point lead among registered NPA
voters and a +7 point lead among voters who personally identify Independent voters.

• Buchanan is underwater among his voters. Vern Buchanan has a net-negative


personal rating, with 36% rating Buchanan as favorable and 39% rating him as
unfavorable. Buchanan’s personal brand is even worse among registered NPAs (29%
favorable / 45% unfavorable). Buchanan is on dangerous footing, as an incumbent who
is underwater in his personal rating and as he fails to hold 50% of the vote share in the
current vote. Buchanan is clearly vulnerable in 2018.
• Following balanced, positive bio information, the race is statistically tied. After
voters hear positive information on both candidates’ biographies and priorities (language
on the following page), the race further tightens and Shapiro and Buchanan are tied well
within the survey’s margin of error (48% Shapiro / 49% Buchanan/ 4% undecided). And
even with reinforced positives, Buchanan fails to receive a majority vote share.

David Shapiro is a strong candidate who is well positioned to unseat incumbent Vern Buchanan
– if he can effectively communicate his story to voters. This is a prime opportunity for Democrats
to help replace an entrenched Washington-insider with a common sense, independent leader.

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted N=400 live telephone interviews with likely November 2018 voters in
Florida’s 16th Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between August 22-26, 2018. Respondents were
selected at random and interviews were apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of
sampling error is 4.9% with a 95% confidence level.
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research 2

APPENDIX A – PROFILES READ IN THE INFORMED VOTE

Democrat David Shapiro is an attorney, mediator, and local business owner. He is tired of the
dysfunction in Congress and says it's time for common sense, independent leadership. Shapiro
will work across party lines to protect Social Security and Medicare, will stand up for our
veterans, fight for lower healthcare costs, and promises to protect our way of life by fighting
environmental disasters like Red Tide.

Republican Vern Buchanan is the current Congressman and a self-made businessman who
grew up in a blue-collar household. He is a champion for small businesses and knows how to
create jobs. Buchanan is an independent leader who has taken on the Washington
establishment to lower taxes, protect our coasts, and tackle the opioid crisis. Buchanan will
always fight to protect Southwest Florida.