Theor Appl Climatol (2012) 107:73–85
DOI 10.1007/s00704-011-0465-1
ORIGINAL PAPER
Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin
Climatological and hydrological context of recent floods
Jose Antonio Marengo & Javier Tomasella &
Wagner R. Soares & Lincoln M. Alves & Carlos A. Nobre
Received: 16 December 2010 / Accepted: 25 May 2011 / Published online: 7 June 2011
# Springer-Verlag 2011
Abstract During 2009 the Amazon basin was hit by a heavy
flooding with a magnitude and duration few times observed in
several decades. Torrential rain in northern and eastern
Amazonia during the austral summer of 2008–2009 swelled
the Amazon River and its tributaries. By July 2009, water
levels of the Rio Negro, a major Amazon tributary, reached at
Manaus harbor a new record, the highest mark of the last
107 years. During the 2008–2009 hydrological year, the rainy
season on northern and northwestern Amazonia started
prematurely, and was followed by a longer-than-normal rainy
season. An anomalously southward migration of the ITCZ
during May–June 2009, due to the warmer than normal
surface waters in the tropical South Atlantic, was responsible
for abundant rainfall in large regions of eastern Amazonia and
Northeast Brazil from May to July 2009. We also compared
the flood of 2009 with other major events recorded in 1989
and 1999. The hydrological consequences of this pattern were
earlier than normal floods in Amazon northern tributaries,
which peak discharges at their confluences with the main stem
almost coincided with the peaks of southern tributaries. Since
the time displacement of the contribution to the main stem of
northern and southern Amazon tributaries is fundamental for
damping flood waves in the main stem, the simultaneous
combinations of peak discharges of tributaries resulted in an
extreme flood.
J. A. Marengo (*) : J. Tomasella : W. R. Soares : L. M. Alves :
C. A. Nobre
Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre/Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais CCST/INPE,
Rodovia Dutra km 39,
12630–000 Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil
e-mail: jose.marengo@inpe.br
1 Introduction
The Amazon River, with a length of 6,992.15 km from its
source in the Peruvian Andes to its mouth in the Atlantic
Ocean (Martini et al. 2008), is the longest of the world. Its
drainage area covers about 6,200,000 km2, almost 5% of all
continental masses. With an average discharge of
209,000 m3 s−1 and a sediment load of 3 million tons near
its mouth (Molinier et al. 1996), the Amazon is one of the
most impressive hydrological basins of the world. At its
widest point, the Amazon River can be 11 km wide during
the dry season, while during the rainy season can be up to
40 km wide.
During 2005, vast areas of the mighty Amazon River
were hammered by a historic drought, which destroyed
trees, severely impacted the livelihoods of riverine pop-
ulations, and provided scientists a rare opportunity to
investigate the world’s largest rainforest in extreme distress
(see reviews by Tomasella et al. 2010; Marengo et al.
2008a, b). In contrast, during 2009 the Amazon basin was
hit by a heavy flooding, which resulted in water levels and
river discharges with a magnitude and duration few times
observed in several decades. Torrential rains in northern and
eastern Amazonia from November 2008 to March 2009
swelled the Amazon River and its tributaries, including the
Rio Negro on which Manaus locates (Marengo 2010). In
2010, a drought has struck again (Marengo et al. 2011),
reinforcing the hypothesis that such extremes may become
more frequent and intense in a future climate change (Cox
et al. 2008).
The Amazon flood-pulse, related to the strong seasonality
of the basin rainfall regimes, divides the main stem hydrolog-
ical year in a period of low water levels known as the terrestrial
phase, which is followed by a period of high water known as
the aquatic phase (Junk et al. 1989). The flood-pulse triggers
74
crucial ecological processes of the floodplain systems such as
trees growth rates, modulates key biogeochemical cycles, and
determines the pace of socioeconomic activities of the local
population (e.g., fishery, timber extraction, agriculture,
transportation, human health) (Schöngart and Junk 2007).
The contrasting seasonal hydrological stages of the
Amazon Basin are also affected by interannual and long-
term variability of both the tropical Pacific and northern
Atlantic Tropical Oceans (Ropelewski and Halpert 1987,
1989; Aceituno 1988; Nobre et al. 1989; Marengo 1992,
2004; Moron et al. 1995; De Souza and Ambrizzi 2002;
Ronchail et al. 2002, 2005; Espinoza et al. 2009, among
others). Rainfall reductions and droughts in Amazonia have
been associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
events, and with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
in the tropical Atlantic as well (Richey et al. 1989; Uvo et
al. 1998; De Souza and Ambrizzi 2002; De Souza et al.
2005; Marengo et al. 2008a, b). On the other hand, excess
rainfall occurs during La Niña in the north and northeast of
the Amazon region (Marengo 1992; Poveda and Mesa
1993; Ronchail et al. 2002; Espinoza et al. 2009).
The 2009 flooding came just 4 years after a severe
drought stranded river boats, isolated communities, and
contributed to massive forest fires (Brown et al. 2006;
Aragão et al. 2007; Marengo et al. 2008a, b; Zeng et al.
2008; Cox et al. 2008; Tomasella et al. 2010; Tomasella et
al., The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia:
hydrological, ecological and human impacts in the main
stem floodplain, 2010, unpublished), and 1 year before
another extreme drought in 2010 (CPRM 2009; Lewis et al.
2011; Marengo et al. 2011). According to the CPRM-SGB-
Companhia de Pesquisa de Recursos Minerais/Serviço
Geológico do Brasil (Mineral Resources Research Company/
Brazilian Geological Survey), the rise of the Amazon Rivers
started to intensify since March 2009. By July 2009, the water
level of the Rio Negro at Manaus harbor reached 29.75 m, the
highest mark in 107 years of stage data available. The five
previous record highs observed in Manaus were: 1953
(29.69 m), 1976 (29.61 m), 1989 (29.42 m), 1922 (29.35 m)
and 1999 (29.30 m) (CPRM 2009). Discharges of the
Amazon River at Óbidos reached 814 cm in 26 May 2009,
which was higher than the previous record of 810 cm
measured in 31 May 2006.
The main characteristics of the 2009 flood were its intensity
(abundant rainfall early in the austral summer and high river
levels during autumn, in many cases higher than previous
stage records at several Amazon tributaries), and the geo-
graphical extension of the phenomena. Various reports from
the meteorological services of Peru (www.senamhi.gob.pe),
Colombia (www.ideam.gob.co), the Brazilian National Water
Agency (www.ana.gov), and the Geological Survey of
Brazil-CPRM (www.cprm.gov.br/) indicated that the flood
affected a large region of the Amazon basin.
J.A. Marengo et al.
The flood of 2009 occurred during a season wherein
warming in the tropical South Atlantic and cooling La Niña
conditions in the equatorial Pacific were present, and these
large-scale patterns were responsible for changes in the
large-scale circulation, leading to extreme rainfall during
the austral summer and autumn of 2008–2009.
The present study focuses on the observational large-
scale atmospheric characteristics in the Amazon region
during the hydrological year 2008–2009, which resulted in
the most extensive flood episode in recent Amazon
hydrologic history. Based on the classification of major
floods in Amazonia of CPRM (2009) at the Manaus harbor,
this study investigated the flood of 2009 in comparison
with two previous flood events in the recent past: 1989 and
1999. We use river data from the Amazon River and the Rio
Negro to verify the coherence of rainfall anomalies patterns
and river flow extreme discharges.
2 Data and methodology
2.1 Precipitation
The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)
(orias.dwd.de/GPCC/) gauge-based gridded precipitation
data set is available for global land surface only. Data was
quality-controlled in relation to outliers and homogeneity
(both test and removal); while interpolation and gridding
was done as thoroughly as possible to obtain optimal results
(Rudolf et al. 1994, 2005; Beck et al. 2005). The GPCC
data sets are available in the spatial resolutions of 1.0°
latitude by 1.0° longitude, as mean monthly precipitation
totals, anomalies, and percentages of the long-term mean
(LTM) for 1951–2000.
Other rainfall analyses used on this study include: (a) the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate
Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) rainfall data set, that is
part of the CPC Unified Precipitation Products Suite (Silva
et al. 2007; Shi et al. 2000; www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
products/precip/realtime/retro.shtml); (b) the Climate Pre-
diction Center-Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP)
(Xie and Arkin 1997); (c) the Chen et al. (2002) dataset
derived from rain gauge observations collected in the
Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), version
2, (d) the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System (CAMS)
datasets; (e) and daily gauge observations from the National
Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and the Brazilian
National Water Agency (ANA).
2.2 River data
Main stem river discharge and levels data sets from gauging
sites in the Brazilian Amazonia were provided by the ANA.
Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin 75

To characterize the incremental discharge during the floods temperature derived from Geostationary Operational Envi-
events, stations located in the main stem were selected ronmental Satellites (GOES).
(Table 1). All river data (both water levels and streamflow) A statistical analysis of those three extremes events was
since 1978 are available, with the exception of the levels of carried out using the historical rank rainfall method, applied
the Rio Negro at Manaus, which have been available since to monthly mean precipitation values of the GPCC database
1903. Discharge data is presented on the “hydrological for the period 1978–2009. The rank was calculated via
year” base, which is defined to begin in November and computing monthly rainfall amounts in millimeters for each
conclude in October the following year. Further details basin grid box; the resulting rainfall amounts of each grid
about the hydrological stations can be found in the work of box were ranked in increasing order, and the maximum
(J. Tomasella, Personal communication). values in each grid box were highlighted. The ranking map
of a certain year indicates in which grid box of the Amazon
2.3 Large-scale circulation and SST data fields Basin monthly rainfall amounts were maximum for the
period 1978–2009. Maps were produced for the three
Circulation fields were extracted from the National hydrological years under study.
Center for Environmental Predictions/National Center
for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) global rean-
alyses (Kalnay et al. 1996), with a resolution of 2.5° 3 Results and discussions
latitude/longitude grid that are available from 1958 to the
present. SST data are derived by the NOAA Optimum 3.1 Large-scale patterns of the ocean and atmospheric
Interpolation (OI) Version 2 using both in situ and satellite patterns during 1989, 1999 and 2009 flood events
data from November 1981 to the present (Reynolds et al.
2002). The circulation field anomalies were calculated Large-scale circulation patterns during the austral summer and
from the 1971 to 2000 LTM. autumn of the hydrological years 1998–1989, 1989–1999 and
2008–2009 are shown in Fig. 1a–f. This figure should be
2.4 Analyses analyzed together with rainfall anomalies from November–
April 1988–1989, 1998–1999 and 2008–2009 (Figs. 2, 3 and
Seasonal large-scale fields were analyzed for the 1988– 4) and with the mean ITCZ position in the 3 years from
1989, 1998–1999 and 2008–2009 hydrological years, Fig. 5. A close examination of these figures shows that the
including 850-hPa low lever circulation fields from the 2008–2009 austral summer period is dominated by La Niña.
NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Together with monthly rainfall Various studies (see Zeng et al. 2008; Espinoza et al. 2009
anomaly maps from GPCC rainfall, they provide an and references quoted therein) suggest that cold SST
integrated picture of the climatic situation during these anomalies in the eastern Pacific toward the end of the year
flood events. Time series of rainfall anomalies in Central are generally associated with a wetter Amazon: Rainier
Amazonia from various data sets were also constructed for conditions and flood events in 1908, 1976, 1989, and 2009
January–March (peak of the rainy season) for the last were associated with La Niña event. However, the 1922 and
30 years. Seasonal Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) 1953 floods were not, indicating that sometimes Amazon
position was identified using minimum outgoing longwave floods are not associated to cooler than normal SST in the
radiation (OLR) values from NCEP/NCAR data sets tropical Pacific, as described below.
(Kalnay et al. 1996) and from thermal infrared brightness In 1989 and 1999 floods, cooling in the central
equatorial Pacific was about 2–3°C in summer, while in
2009 the cooling was barely below 1°C. In the austral
Table 1 Geographical locations of the main-stem river discharge summer of 2008–2009, warm surface waters were detected
stations used to characterize the floods, including the drainage area off the east coast of Venezuela, a feature that was not
Station River Latitude Longitude Station drainage noticed in the other wet years in Amazonia. This warming
(S) (W) area (1,000 km2) intensified and expanded by the fall of 2009. Since the
meridional tropical Atlantic SST gradient influences the
São Paulo de Solimões −3.45 −68.75 990,781 ITCZ migration and consequently rainfall in Amazonia
Olivença
Itapéua Solimões −4.05 −63.03 1,769,000 (Marengo 1992; Ronchail et al. 2002), large positive SST
Manacapuru Solimões −3.31 −60.48 2,147,736 anomalies in the tropical South Atlantic, especially in late
Jatuarana Amazonas −3.05 −59.12 2,854,286
summer and autumn, were responsible for the abundant
Óbidos Amazonas −1.95 −55.51 4,680,000
rainfall that generated the 2009 flood.
Therefore, the hydrological years of 1988–1989 and 1998–
Source: Tomasella et al. (2010a) 1999 coincided with strong La Nina events, when significant
76
Fig. 1 Seasonal SST anomalies (°C), 850 hPa level pressure anomalies
(hPa), and low-level (850 hPa) moisture flux anomalies in South America
during summer (DJF) and autumn (MAM) in 1988–1989, 1998–1999
cooling in the central equatorial Pacific during the austral
summer and autumn was observed: during La Niña of 1988–
1989, cooling started in June 1988 (−0.7°C) and reached the
maximum by January 1989 (−1.7°C); whereas in 1998–1999,
cooling started in July 1998 (−0.5°C) immediately after the El
Niño 1998, and reached a maximum of −1.4°C in December
1998 and January 1999 and lasted until June 2000. On the
other hand, in 2008–2009, La Niña started relatively late
(NOAA, www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov), by November 2008
(−0.3°C), and the most intense cooling in the central Pacific
occurred in January 2009 (−0.8°C).
In addition, during the austral summer, the tropical
North Atlantic off the coast of Venezuela and Guiana was
about +1.5°C warmer than normal. In the tropical South
Atlantic, warming during the austral summer and autumn
reached a maximum of +0.4°C during November 1988, and
maintained this warming until February 1989. During 1998–
1999, warming started to increase in September 1998 (+0.7°C)
and reached a maximum of +1.5°C by January 1999. In
comparison, by September 2008, warming in the tropical
South Atlantic was about +1.1°C. Meanwhile, during austral
summer warming was strong over the tropical Atlantic off the
coast of Africa, and then started to get warm again from May
to July 2009 (about +1.5°C).
J.A. Marengo et al.
and 2008–2009. SST and circulation anomalies correspond to 1979–2009
long-term mean (LTM). The vector at the bottom-right side of the panel
shows the scale of the moisture flux (g kg−1 m s−1)
Changes in the low-level atmospheric circulation are
consistent with the notion of a warmer tropical North
Atlantic and above-normal moisture transport into northern
and western Amazonia during early summer. In addition,
circulation and sea level pressure anomalies show a low-
level cyclonic anomaly at around 12°S, suggesting an
intensification of the Chaco thermal low by about 1 hPa
mostly during austral summer and fall. This favors an
acceleration of the trade winds and moisture transport from
off the coast of Venezuela–Guiana into western Amazonia.
The increased moisture fuels organized convection, and
thus favors intense rainfall over the eastern section of
Amazonia during austral summer.
Moreover, warmer-than-normal SST in the Tropical
South Atlantic Ocean induced an anomalously southward
position of the ITCZ that occurred from December 2008 to
March 2009, and remained about 5° to the south of its
climatological position (Fig. 5). Although in normal years
the ITCZ moves northward by April, it remained in its
southern position through May–June 2009, causing abun-
dant rainfall in eastern Amazonia–Northeast Brazil during
that period. In 1988 and 1989, the ITCZ was slightly to the
south of its climatological position over the tropical
Atlantic, but not as southward as in 2009 especially near
Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin
Fig. 2 Seasonal rainfall anomaly maps for the 1988–1989 hydrological year (November–October) based on GPCC data. Anomalies based on the
1951–2000 LTM are in millimeters
the South American continent. Thus, while La Niña has
been considered a major factor in the 1989 and 1999 flood
events, La Niña was weaker and began later during the
2009 flood, and the most important factor responsible for
the heavy rainfall in Amazonia was the warmer-than-
normal SSTs in the tropical Atlantic off the coasts of
Venezuela–Guiana during austral summer, and on the
tropical South Atlantic during autumn.
An analysis of the GPCC monthly rainfall anomaly maps
from Figs. 2, 3 and 4 shows that rainfall in central
Amazonia during the austral summer season in 2008–
2009 was somewhat different to the other wet years. In
1988–1989 most of Amazonia was wetter than normal,
whereas in 1998–1999 rainfall was above normal in
northern, central and western Amazonia while southern
Amazonia was drier than normal in the summer. During
fall, the entire region between 0° and 10°S from the
77
Peruvian Amazon to the mouth of the Amazon River was
wetter than normal, contrasting with negative rainfall
anomalies in southern Amazonia between 10° and 15°S.
Consistent with the circulation anomalies, above average
rainfall was observed over the northern Amazon Basin in
the summer of 2009, with excesses larger than 200 mm
over the climatology. Heavy rain began to fall over northern
and northwestern Amazonia in November and December
2008, becoming more abundant over northern and central
Amazonia in January 2009, when rainfall was about
150 mm above normal. With the tropical South Atlantic
about 2°C warmer than normal (Fig. 1) during autumn and
at the beginning of austral winter, the ITCZ remained fairly
stationary over eastern Amazonia and northeastern Brazil
(Fig. 5) instead of migrating northward over French
Guiana, Suriname, and Guyana, producing heavy rainfall
during a climatologically dry season.
78
Fig. 3 Seasonal rainfall anomaly maps for the 1998–1999 hydrological year (November–October) based on GPCC data. Anomalies based on the
1951–2000 LTM are in millimeters
3.2 Interannual rainfall variability in Amazonia
during the floods of 1989, 1999 and 2009
Figure 6 highlights the 1989, 1999 and 2009 flood events, and
indicates that rainfall was well below normal during 1980;
during the El Niño related events of 1983, 1991 and 1998;
and with a minimum for the whole period during the drought
of 2005. On the contrary, rainfall was well above normal
during the La Niña events in 1989, 1999 and in 2009, with the
highest positive anomalies in 1989 and 1999. A preliminary
analysis indicates that rainfall anomalies during the 2009
flood were not as high as those associated to the other two
flood events. Indeed, although rainfall was well above normal
in few areas of the Amazon basin, the spatial coverage was
lower compared with the 1988 and 1999 floods.
Figure 7 shows the annual rainfall cycle from November
to October for the LTM of the period 1978–2009 and for the
three flood events analyzed. In fact, all three cases show
J.A. Marengo et al.
rainfall well above the climatological normal during the peak
season (January through March). Moreover, in 1989 and
1999, positive rainfall anomalies persisted during austral
autumn and winter. During the 2008–2009 floods, however,
rainfall was above normal only from November 2008
through April 2009.
Ranking maps of extreme monthly rainfall amount in the
Amazon basin for the period 1978–2009 are shown in Fig. 8
for the hydrological years 1988/1989 (orange), 1998/1999
(red) and 2008/2009 (blue). As can be seen in the figure, grid
boxes for the 2009 event (indicated by blue color) show that
rainfall was highest (for the period 1978–2009) in north and
eastern Amazonia in December 2008. It is interesting to note
that in all three events, the wettest months do not exhibit an
organized spatial pattern, since rainfall was maxima in
isolated areas of Amazonia. From the meteorological point
of view, the 2009 event was more extreme as compared
to1989 or 1999 during austral summer.
Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin
Fig. 4 Seasonal rainfall anomaly maps for the 2008–2009 hydrological year (November–October) based on GPCC data. Anomalies based on the
1951–2000 LTM are in millimeters
3.3 Hydrological analysis of the floods of 1989, 1999
and 2009
Figure 6 suggests that the magnitude of annual rainfall
anomalies during the 1989 flood were the greatest of the
three events, followed by the 1999, and finally rainfall
anomalies during 2009. Statistical data from the Manaus
Harbor (CPRM 2009), on the other hand, indicates that the
floods of 1989, 1999, and 2009 ranked fourth, sixth and
first, respectively, of the last 107 years. Therefore, it is
interesting to analyze why the flood of 2009, which was
associated to the lowest annual positive rainfall anomalies
of the three events, was responsible for the largest flood of
the century; while the flood of 1989, related to the highest
rainfall anomalies as shown in Fig. 6, resulted in the lowest
flood of all three analyzed events.
In a recent paper, Tomasella et al. (2010) compared the
drought of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia and concluded that
79
the time of contribution of main-stem tributaries is extremely
important for shaping main-stem flood waves. In this section,
we will briefly analyze the main hydrological aspects that
defined the extreme characteristic of the three floods, while
in a forthcoming paper we will present an in deep discussion
of all hydrological aspects of the three events.
The Amazon Basin can be divided in three main regions:
the main-stem river, which flows west to east in the
Brazilian territory; the northern tributaries (such as the
Rio Negro); and the southern tributaries (such as the
Madeira River). Since rainfall regimes are different in the
northern and southern part of the basin, the onset of the wet
season varies across latitudes, and hence the contribution
time of the tributaries to the river main stem. Further details
regarding the hydrological regime of the Amazon Basin are
summarized by Tomasella et al. (2010).
Figure 9 shows river discharges for the 1989, 1999 and
2009 events at São Paulo Olivença Station (listed in
80 J.A. Marengo et al.

Fig. 5 Seasonal migration of

the Intertropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ) axis for
December–May during the
three flood case studies:
red line 2009, blue line
1999, green line 1989, over
the Tropical Atlantic. Black
line indicates the climatological
position during 1980–2009,
determined using OLR values
(www.cptec.inpe.br/clima)

Table 1), located in the upper Amazon; incremental
discharges in the Middle Amazon Basin between the
stations of Itapéua, Manacapuru, Jatuarana and Óbidos;
and finally river discharges in the station of Óbidos, in the
lower Amazon. It also includes the LTM discharges of the
period 1978–2009. The hydrological analysis is comple-
mented by monthly rainfall anomalies maps presented in
Figs. 2, 3 and 4 for the 1988–1989, 1998–1999 and 2008–
2009 hydrological years.
River records showed that the discharges in São Paulo de
Olivença were above the mean most of the time during the
three events. The flood of 1989 showed the lowest
discharges at the high water season, while the flood of
2009, on the other hand, presented the highest discharges,
expect during June when the highest discharges were
recorded in 1999. Indeed, during the 2009 flood, discharges
were above the mean from the beginning of the year,
indicating that the Andean sub-catchments contributions
were higher in the most recent event.
As shown in Figs. 2, 3 and 4, positive rainfall anomalies
were observed in most of northwestern and western
Amazonia from December 2008 through March 2009.
During the flood of 1999, positive rainfall in that part of
the basin occurred for a shorter period, between January
though February 1999; whilst during the 1989 event,
generalized higher than normal rainfall appeared only in
January 1989 and spatially constrained to the west of
Amazonia. Therefore, during 2009 positive rainfall anoma-

Fig. 6 Time series of rainfall

indices for north-central Amazo-
nia during the peak season
NDJFM from 1978 to 2009.
Rainfall datasets are from Chen et
al. (2002), CAMS OPI (Xie and
Arkin 1997), NCEP CPC
NOAA, and the indices were
derived from INMET and ANA
rainfall stations, and are pre-
sented as anomalies from the
LTM, whose period depend on
the data set considered. Anoma-
lies are in mm day−1
Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin 81

Fig. 7 Annual cycle of rainfall

during three wet years in
Amazonia (same domain as in
Fig. 6) for 1988–1989
(orange), 1998–1999 (red) and
2008–2009 (blue), compared to
the 1978–2009 LTM (black).
Rainfall values are derived from
the CPCC dataset

lies in northwestern and western Amazonia were verified
on a larger area and persisted for a longer period compared
to the other events, which provides an explanation for the
observed hydrological behavior at São Paulo de Olivença
Station.
Between São Paulo de Olivença and Itapéua, the main-
stem river received the contribution of the Japurá River,
which drains the Colombian Andes, and the Juruá River,
which drains the southwestern part of the Basin. Figure 9
indicates that both the floods of 1999 and 2009 have a

Fig. 8 Maps of historical rank rainfall monthly mean values in rainfall values for each grid box. Color scale highlights the grid box for
Amazonia for the period 1978–2009 derived from the CPCC dataset. three flood case studies: 1988/1989, 1998/1999 and 2008/2009
Extremes events (highest) are defined as the maximum total monthly
82
Fig. 9 Incremental discharges along the river main-stem during the 1988–1989, 1998–1999 and 2008–2009 hydrological years. Station locations
are listed in Table 1
similar behavior during high water; however, water dis-
charges at recession were lower during both events
compared to the flood of 1989. Since this part of the river
receives contributions of both hemispheres, the signal on
discharges is a mixed and difficult to interpret for the three
events.
Between Itapéua and Manacapuru, where the main
tributary is the Purus River, which drains southwestern
areas of Amazonia, the flood of 2009 presented the
highest river discharges at high waters of all events. In
agreement with this behavior, rainfall maps indicate that
positive rainfall anomalies were generalized in the Purus
drainage area from December 2008 through April 2009
(Fig. 4); meanwhile, in 1999 this region was affected by
higher-than-normal rainfall only in January, February and
April 1999.
Between Manacapuru and Jatuarana, where the main
contributor is the Rio Negro, large difference between all
three events can be seen: remarkably higher-than-normal
discharges where recorded from March through August
2009; discharges were also higher than normal through all
1989, although slightly above the mean. During 1999, on
the other hand, discharges were surprisingly below the
J.A. Marengo et al.
mean during the high water season, probably related to
significant negative rainfall anomalies in Central Amazonia
during November and December 1998 and March 1999
(Fig. 2). In the case of the 1989 flood, on the other hand,
rainfall anomalies in Central Amazonia were positive in
November and December 1998, and February 1999;
however, they were negative on January and March 1999
(Fig. 3), which explains why discharges of the Rio Negro
were above the LTM but not as significantly as in the 2009
high water period.
As previously noted, most of the wet season of 2009,
December 2008 through March 2009, higher-than-normal
rainfall rates affected the Rio Negro drainage basins (Figs. 4
and 9). Most importantly, the peak of the rainy season in
most of the northern part of the catchment lasts from
February through March (Marengo 1992), and Fig. 4
indicates that in 2009 the wet season began earlier than
normal, which explains why the peak discharges between
Mancapuru and Jatuarana occurred in June (Fig. 9),
2 months earlier than in normal years.
Between Jatuarana and Óbidos, the main contributor to
the main stem is the Madeira River, the most important
among the southern tributaries, highest discharges among
Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin
the three events occurred during the event of 1989,
followed by the 2009 flood. Since most of the catchment
area of the Madeira River is located in Bolivian Amazonia,
this behavior was caused by rainier-than-normal conditions
that were verified particularly between December, January
and April 1989. During the 2009 flood, positive rainfall
anomalies were recorded in December 2008 and between
February and April 2009, late in the austral wet season,
which explains why the peak discharge of the Madeira
during 2009 occurred in July, a month later than in normal
years. In the case of the 1999 flood, positive rainfall
anomalies in the Bolivian Amazonia can be seen observed
in January and March 1999. Figures 2, 3 and 4 indicates
that rainfall in the Madeira Basin were exceptionally high
during April 1989, March 1999, and December 2008.
Finally, Fig. 9 indicates that, among the three events, the
peak discharges in Óbidos station during 2009 occurred in
May 2009, a month before the usual peak discharges
occurred during the other two events and in normal years.
In normal years, the Madeira River peaks 2–3 month earlier
than the Rio Negro, and this time displacement is crucial
for damping main-stem flood waves (Meade et al. 1991)
because the Rio Negro is still rising while the Madeira is
already receding. Moreover, Tomasella et al. (2010) have
shown that a premature reduction of river discharges of
northern tributaries during the 2005 drought, which put “in
phase” the recession of northern and southern tributaries,
was directly responsible for a rapid decline of main-stem
river water levels, producing an abrupt recession which
culminated at the end of October 2005.
It is clear from the analysis in Fig. 9 that an equivalent
behavior was also verified during the 2009 flood. In this
case, the premature onset of the wet season in Northern and
western Amazonia caused earlier-than-normal peak dis-
charges in northern tributaries, in particular, the Rio Negro
basin. Previous studies (Marengo et al. 2001) showed that
the onset of the rainy season in central Amazon begins in
the middle of December. Liebmann and Marengo (2001)
showed that lower-than-normal SST in the eastern equato-
rial Pacific are associated with an early onset of the rainy
season in eastern and central Amazonia. Figures 4 and
8 show that rainfall in November 2008 was well above
normal, suggesting that the onset of the rainy season was
1 month earlier than in “climatological normal years,”
consistent with the development of La Niña. Moreover, the
onset of the rainy season in 1988–1989 was also about 1–
2 months earlier than the climatology in central Amazonia,
although with less intensity than in 2008–2009.
Therefore, the peak of the flood wave of northern
tributaries during 2009 were in phase with the peak
discharges of southern tributaries such as the Madeira
River, maximizing the effect of the floods coming from the
northern and southern Amazon Basin. Indeed, this explains
83
why the flood of 2009 peaked in Óbidos in May 2009, a
month earlier than in normal years and in the same month
with the Madeira river peak. During the 1989 and 1999
floods, the peak at Óbidos occurred between the peaks
observed in the Madeira and Negro, which indicates a
condition closer to that in “normal years.”
4 Conclusions
The record-breaking flood of 2009 made international news
and severely affected floodplain population livelihood. The
Associated Press reported on 9 May 9 2009: “Floods and
mudslides from months of heavy rains in northern Brazil
have driven more than 186,000 from their homes, killed at
least 19 people and cut off shipments from a huge Amazon
iron mine, according to officials. Television footage showed
the rooftops of houses poking out of inundated towns and
people using boats to move around in their cities.
Mudslides swamped homes and forced residents to move
in with relatives and pack into emergency shelters. At least
seven states, most in the Amazon region, have been
affected by the rains, which have battered the region for
several months, regional civil defense departments said.”
The La Niña event in 2008–2009 did not have a strong
impact on rainfall as in 1988–1989 or 1998–1999, since it
was relatively weak and started later compared to 1988–
1989 and 1998–1999. The main characteristic of the 2008–
2009 hydrological year was a premature onset of the rainy
season on northern and northwestern Amazonia, and a
longer rainy season compared to the other two case studies.
This was due to the combinations of several meteorological
factors: (i) enhanced moisture transport from the tropical
North Atlantic off the coast of Venezuela–Guiana into
western Amazonia by summer of 2008–2009; (ii) a more
intense Chaco low during summer of 2008–2009 that
favored the enhanced trades winds and moisture transport
into western Amazonia; (iii) an anomalously southward
migration of the ITCZ during May–June 2009, due to the
warmer-than-normal surface waters in the tropical South
Atlantic, which was responsible for the abundant rainfall in
large regions of eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil
from May to July 2009.
The hydrological consequences of this pattern occurred
earlier than in normal floods in Amazon northern tributar-
ies, in which peak discharges at their confluences with the
main stem almost coincided with the peaks of southern
tributaries. In contrast to what occurred during normal
years, when the time displacement of peak discharges
between northern and southern tributaries attenuate the
main-stem flood waves, the superposition of tributaries
flood waves during the flood of 2009 produced an
exceptional significant flood in the main stem. During the
84
1999 flood, most of the contributions to the flood came
from the Andes and Purus River, in response to positive
rainfall anomalies in northwestern to western Amazonia. In
the case of the 1989 flood, higher-than-normal discharges
occurred in the Rio Negro and the Madeira Rivers, as a
consequence of rainier-than-normal conditions in central
and in the Bolivian Amazonia.
From this analysis and based on the hydrological studies
on the droughts of 1997 and 2005 (Tomasella et al. 2010),
floods and droughts in the Amazon river are not only
related to positive/negative rainfall anomalies, but more
importantly the timing when those extreme rainfall events
occurred. If the onset of the wet season in the northern and
southern parts of the basin is such that it puts “in phase”
river discharges of northern and southern tributaries of the
main stem, the damping effect produced by the differences
in contribution times of northern and southern tributaries is
suppressed, and such conditions generally result in extreme
discharges (either floods or droughts) in the main-stem.
Acknowledgements José A. Marengo, Javier Tomasella and Carlos
Nobre were funded by the Brazilian National Research Council CNPq.
Additional funding were provided by the projects Rede-CLIMA, the
National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change
(INCT-CC), the FAPESP–Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to
Climate Change in Brazil and strategies for Adaptation options project
(Ref. 2008/58161-1), and from the European Community’s Seventh
Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreement no.
212492 (CLARIS LPB — A Europe-South America Network for
Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin).
We thank the Brazilian Water Agency (ANA) for providing hydrolog-
ical data.
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