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In which one of the following circumstances will the prevalence of a disease in the
population increase, all else being constant?
Your answer:
b) If survival time with the disease increases.
Feedback:
The prevalence of disease is the proportion of the population that has a given disease.
This proportion is determined by how many people get the disease and how long they are
ill, which is linked to how fast they either recover or die. If fewer people get the disease
or they recover faster, the prevalence of the disease will go down. However, if survival
time with the disease increases without any change in recovery rate, the prevalence will
increase. This is a common challenge for may chronic diseases, such as diabetes. Patient
care improves so survival time increases, but the disease is not cured and patients may
develop complications. The total burden of disease may increase.
Page reference: 597
Question 4
In a cohort study, the risk ratio of developing diabetes was 0.86 when comparing
consumers of tea (the exposed) to those who did not drink tea (the unexposed). Which
one statement is correct?
Your answer:
a) The tea drinkers have lower risk of developing diabetes.
Correct answer:
c) Based on the information given we cannot tell if the observed difference in disease risk
is the result of chance.
Feedback:
A risk ratio (RR) below the value of one suggests lower disease risk among the exposed
(the exposure is protective of the disease), a RR above one suggests a higher disease rate
among the exposed (the exposure is harmful). A RR of exactly one indicates no
difference in disease risk between the two groups. However, all estimates of association
will be somewhat uncertain. It is important to assess this uncertainty. One of the preferred
measures of uncertainty is the confidence interval. The confidence interval give an upper
and lower confidence limit for our estimate with a given probability. For example, if the
95 % confidence interval for a RR of 0.86 has a range of 0.70 to 1.06, then a lower risk of
disease (RR of 0.70), no difference in disease risk (RR of 1) and higher disease risk (RR
of 1.06) are all likely RR-values in the underlying population with 95 % probability.
Page reference: 598-599
Question 8
When epidemiologists judge the evidence to establish possible causes of a health
outcome, they consider
Your answer:
d) All of the options given.
Feedback:
Epidemiologists continuously debate the strategies used to establish that an exposure
causes a specific disease. Philosophers would say that causes can never really be proven.
However, through a broad evaluation of the evidence, using specified criteria and
definitions, the scientific community can build a consensus that a factor most likely is
causal. The options given here are three of several considerations used to establish such
consensus.
Page reference: 604
Question 9
Randomised, controlled trials provide strong evidence that an observed effect is due to
the intervention (the assigned exposure). One reason is because
Your answer:
a) when the participants are randomised, many characteristics and possible confounding
factors are likely to be evenly distributed in the groups.
Feedback:
Chapter 30 highlights that bias, chance and confounding are three influences that may
create flawed study results. An epidemiologist will seek to eliminate these influences as
much as possible when designing a study, as well as taking these influences into account
when interpreting the results. A key feature of the randomised, controlled trial study
design is the random allocation into study groups. The purpose of the random allocation
is to produce comparable groups. If done correctly and the study sample is large enough,
both known and unknown confounding factors that may alter disease risk are likely to be
equally distributed between the groups. In other study designs, we depend on
measurement of known or suspected confounding factors in order to adjust for possible
distortions of the effect of interest.
Page reference: 603
Question 10