Professor, EEE, BUET: A H Chowdhury

  EEE 6906
  Reliability of Power System

  Power System Reliability Analysis -
Preliminaries
  October 2017
A H Chowdhury
Professor, EEE, BUET
Power System Reliability Analysis - Preliminaries
Table of Contents
 Planning for reliability

 Outage definitions
 Construction of Reliability Model
 Deterministic and probabilistic approaches
 System hierarchical levels
 Reliability cost and reliability worth
 Data collection
2
2
Planning for Reliability
 Major parts of a power system are generation, transmission, and distribution

systems
 Number of components and their numerous and complex interrelations would

require analytical models that are far too complicated to be solved without
excessive computing time and effort
 At present state of development, reliability evaluations are conducted separately

for each major part of the system
 This also ensures more flexibility in selecting failure criteria and making
appropriate assumptions
3
 Power system reliability studies conducted for two purposes
a) Long-term reliability evaluations to assist in long range system planning
b) Short-term reliability predictions to assist in day-to-day operating decisions

– Included are assessments of system security where effects of sudden disturbances are
evaluated
 Two types of studies may require very different models and mathematical
approaches
4
 Improvement in system reliability can be effected by using

a) better components, or
b) system design incorporating more redundancy
 Redundancy in generating system means installation of more generating capacity

than normally required
 excess capacity is a reserve needed only in emergencies
 Redundancy in transmission system means ties between stations that are stronger
than would be warranted by normal loads, or links where none are required in basic
design
 extra transmission capacity may be needed to avoid overloading under unusual operating
conditions
5
 Redundancy in stations and in distribution systems means duplication of certain

components and application of more sophisticated bus schemes to reduce chances
of load interruptions
 Close relation between

 Reliability and reserves
 Reliability and costs of installing additional components and operating the system
 However, no one-to-one relationships between these quantities
 Since in an emergency there is not always enough time available for a cold start, some
reserve units are kept spinning to provide service immediately
6
 To assess reliability of a power system, aspects of multiple disciplines have to be

considered
 An analysis framework needs to be specified, consisting of

– Identification of which aspect of reliability to consider
– Definition of system boundaries to limit the extent of analysis
– Selection of the level of modeling detail and analysis method, in order to be able to study
the correct phenomena
– Selection of proper reliability indices to compute
7
Table of Contents

 Data collection
8
8
Outage Definitions
U1 D1 U2 D2 U3 D3 U4 D4
Up
status
Failed
Time
 Power systems are repairable; they consist of repairable components
 In repairable systems, durations and effects of component and system failure states
are of particular interest
 An IEEE Committee classify these failures
IEEE Committee Report, ‘Proposed Definitions of Terms for Reporting and Analyzing Outages of Electrical
Transmission and Distribution Facilities and Interruptions,’ IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and
Systems, Vol. 87, pp. 1318-1323, May 1968.
9
Outage Definitions
Outages and interruptions
 An outage describes state of a component when it is not available to perform its

intended function due to some event directly associated with that component
 An outage may or may not cause an interruption of service to consumers depending

on system configuration
 An interruption is the loss of service to one or more consumers or other facilities

and is the result of one or more component outages, depending on system
configuration
10
Outage Definitions
Outage classification by effect
 A partial outage describes a component state where capacity of component to

perform its function is reduced but not completely eliminated
 A total outage is an outage where component is completely incapable of performing

its function
11
Outage Definitions
Outage classification by cause
Forced outage
 An outage that results from emergency conditions directly associated with a
component, requiring that component be taken out of service immediately,
either automatically or as soon as switching operations can be performed, or an
outage caused by improper operation of equipment or human error
Scheduled outage
 An outage that results when a component is deliberately taken out of service at a
selected time, usually for purposes of construction, preventive maintenance, or
repair
12
Outage Definitions
 Key test to determine if an outage should be classified as forced or

scheduled
 If it is possible to defer outage when such deferment is desirable, the outage is a
scheduled outage; otherwise, outage is a forced outage
 Deferring an outage may be desirable for example to prevent overload of

facilities or an interruption of service to consumers
13
Outage Definitions
Classification of forced outages by duration
Transient forced outage
 A transient forced outage is a component outage whose cause is immediately self-

clearing so that the affected component can be restored to service either
automatically or as soon as a switch or a circuit breaker can be reclosed or a fuse
replaced
 Example: a lightning flashover which does not permanently disable the flashed
component
14
Outage Definitions
Persistent forced outage
 A persistent forced outage is a component outage whose cause is not immediately

self-clearing, but must be corrected by eliminating the hazard or by repairing or
replacing the affected component before it can be returned to service
 Example a lightning flashover which shatters an insulator, thereby disabling the
component until repair or replacement can be made
15
Outage Definitions
Interruption classification by cause
Forced interruption
 An interruption caused by a forced outage
 Scheduled interruption
 An interruption caused by a scheduled outage.
16
Outage Definitions
Interruption classification by duration

Momentary interruption
– has a duration limited to the period required to restore service by automatic or
supervisory-controlled switching operations or by manual switching at locations where an
operator is immediately available
– Switching operations are typically completed in a few minutes
Temporary interruption
– has a duration limited to the period required to restore service by manual switching at
locations where an operator is not immediately available
– Such switching operations are typically completed within 1-2 hr
Sustained interruption
– Any interruption not classified as momentary or temporary
17
Table of Contents

 Data collection
18
18
Construction of Reliability Model
 Factors considered when an analytical model is developed reliability evaluation of

power system
 Composition of the system
– Model chosen will depend on the number and variety of components and their possible
states of operation and failure
 System failure criteria
– These depend on portion of power system that is under study
– The criteria determine method of failure effect analysis (FEA) to be applied
– A system has failed by one of the criteria does not necessarily mean that it has 'collapsed‘
– System failure merely indicates an arbitrary (but judiciously) selected condition based on
which numerical values can be established for system reliability indices
19
 Assumptions in modeling
– These to a large extent establish the 'rules of the game‘
– Assumptions are made in such diverse areas as the representations of weather effects,
system load, planned maintenance, common-mode failures, and derated component states
– Assumptions are also required as to what effects, quantities or states can be neglected
 Selection of the analytical method
– Based on number of considerations
• system structure and size
• component independence
• reparability
• failure and repair time distributions
• component failure modes
• effects of operating routines
• environmental effects etc.
20
 Building the model

– Particular care must be taken to properly account for
• all the interactions between components
• environmental factors as weather and load
– Dependent relations must be recognized and appropriately incorporated
21
 Main steps in an actual study

1. Define the system: list the components to be included, assemble necessary
component failure data
2. Define the criteria for system failure
3. List the assumptions to be used in constructing a model
4. Develop the system model
5. Perform failure effects analysis and compute system reliability indices
6. Analyze and evaluate the results
22
Table of Contents

 Data collection
23
23
Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches
• The most common deterministic method for assessing power system reliability
is the N-1 criterion
– a considered reliable if it is able to withstand any prescribed outage situations or
contingencies within acceptable constraints
• Situation considered is only a state condition for a specific combination of bus

loads and generating unit outages
• Uncertainties
– Failures of components, plant, and systems occur randomly
– Uncertainties of new power generation projects,
– Uncertainties of future power demand and scope
– Uncertainties of regulatory constraints and external rules
24
• Deterministic approach does not recognize unequal probabilities of events that lead
to potential operating security limit violations
• Probabilistic based approaches offer much more information regarding system

behaviors
– enable better allocation of economic and technical resources s
• Probabilistic evaluations model random nature of the problem
– can efficiently handle a numerous sets of possible alternatives, with different outcomes
and chances of occurrence, for which individual evaluations could be unfeasible
25
• Five analysis criteria of Probabilistic Reliability Analysis (PRA)

1. Interaction Analysis
2. Situation Analysis
3. Root Cause Analysis
4. Weak Point Analysis
5. Probabilistic Margin Analysis
26
• Interaction Analysis
– Reveals cause and effect relationship
among user defined zones
– Zone interaction is defined by a zone
“cause” where outage is located and
a zone “affected” where violations
are experienced
• Situation Analysis
– Analyses events or situations that
have high probabilities or higher
impacts on system
– analysis results can be revealed in Probabilistic risk indices in
the impact/probability space impact/probability space
27
• Root Cause Analysis

– Indicates key components that may cause critical situations
– A root cause facility is a facility that experiences an outage and creates a

violation, whether or not it is combined with other outages
• Weak Point Analysis

– Identifies buses and branches which are sensitive to disturbances
– These system components at least experience one violation
28
• Probabilistic Margin Analysis

– Reveals relationship between reliability
indices with system stress level
– Stress level is a criterion of system
robustness and a measure of distance to
system danger zones
– Direction could be load level, transfer
level, or generation output etc.
– Normally deterministic margin
corresponds to maximum level of load
increase that system can withstand
without any reliability problems
– Probabilistic margin extended the PRA method expresses reliability margin as a
concepts of deterministic margin by function of load/transfer increment
adopting a tolerance criterion
29
• Slow development in probabilistic approach
– Concept-difficulties associated with clearly defining goals and purposes of reliability

evaluations, and selecting appropriate indices and failure criteria
– Modeling-difficulties associated with finding mathematical models that describe failure

and repair processes, load and weather effects, remedial actions, and generation
scheduling in hulk systems with acceptable fidelity
– Computation-difficulties associated with finding solution methods whose accuracy and

computational efficiency can be considered acceptable
– Data Collecting-difficulties due to the unavailability of sufficient observed failures
30
 Failures of components, plant, and systems occur randomly
 Frequency, duration, impact of failures vary from one year to next
 Utilities record events and produce set of performance measures

– system availability
– estimated unsupplied energy
– number of incidents
– number of hours of interruption
– excursions beyond set voltage limits
– excursions beyond set frequency limits
31
 Performance measures valuable because:

– Identify weak areas needing reinforcement or modifications
– Establish chronological trends in reliability performance
– Establish existing indices which serve as a guide for acceptable values in future reliability
assessments
– Enable previous predictions to be compared with actual operating experience
– Monitor response to system design changes
 Performance measures are statistical indices, not deterministic values

– At best average or expected values of a probability distribution
32
Table of Contents
 Data collection
33
33
System Hierarchical Levels
 Power system is complex, highly integrated, and very large
 Analysis in a completely realistic and exhaustive manner all of a power system as a

single entity not realistic
 System divided using its main functional zones which can be analyzed separately
– Generation systems
– Composite generation and transmission systems
– Distribution systems
 Main functional zones subdivided to study a subset of problem
 Particular subzones include individual generating stations, substations, and

protection systems
34
 Hierarchical levels (HL) establish means of

identifying and grouping functional zones
Generation
 HL-I refers to generation facilities and their HL-I
ability on a pooled basis to satisfy pooled system
demand
Transmission
 HL-II refers to composite generation and system
HL-II
transmission system and its ability to deliver
energy to bulk supply points
Distribution
 HL-III refers to complete system including
system
distribution and its ability to satisfy capacity and HL-III
energy demands of individual consumers
35
• Reliability study of HL II evaluates generation and transmission capacity to supply

system load distributed in bulk load points
• Reliability study of HL III typically only practical for small systems
• A common solution is to utilise results from a HL II evaluation as input for a

separate evaluation of a specific distribution system
– effects that the distribution system may have on reliability of the transmission and
generation systems are neglected
36
Main subsystems
 Generating stations
– Each station or each unit in station analyzed separately
– Form input to both HL-I and HL-II assessments
 Generating capacity
– Reliability of generating capacity evaluated by pooling all sources of generation and all
loads (i.e., HLI assessment studies)
 Interconnected systems
– Generation of each system and tie lines between systems modeled, but network in each
system not considered
– Assessments are HLI studies
 Composite generation/transmission
– Network limited to bulk transmission; integrated effect of generation and transmission
assessed (i.e., HLII studies)
37
 Distribution networks
– Reliability of distribution evaluated by considering ability of network fed from bulk supply
points in supplying load demands
 Substations and switching stations

– These systems are complicated
– Analyzed separately rather than including them as complete systems in network reliability
evaluation
– Indices obtained used as measures of substation performance itself or
– as input in evaluating reliability of transmission (HL-II) or distribution (HL-III) systems
38
 Protection systems
– Reliability of protection systems analyzed separately
– Indices used to represent these systems as equivalent components in network

(transmission and distribution) reliability evaluation, or
– As an assessment of substation itself
39
Table of Contents

 Data collection
40
40
Reliability Cost and Reliability Worth
 Failures in any part of power system can cause interruptions

 Economic impact of outages include
– loss of revenue by utility
– loss of energy utilization by customer
– indirect costs imposed on customers, society, environment
Case: 1977 New Year blackout
 Total costs of blackouts were attributed as:
– utility direct costs 3.5%
– other direct costs 12.5%
– indirect costs 84.0%
41
 To reduce frequency and duration of outages and to ameliorate their effect invest
either in design phase, operating phase, or both
 Questions
– How much should be spent?
– Is it worth spending any money?
– Should reliability be increased, maintained at existing levels, or allowed to degrade?
– Who should decide— utility, a regulator, customer?
– On what basis should decision be made?
 Underlying trend in all questions is the need to determine
– Worth of reliability in a power system
– Who should contribute to this worth
– Who should decide levels of reliability and investment required to achieve them
42
• Costs and economics play major role in application of

reliability concepts and its physical attainment
• Question: "Where or on what should next dollar be
1.0
invested to achieve maximum reliability benefit?"
• Reliability and economics play a major integrated ΔR
Reliability, R
role in decision-making process ΔC
• Incremental cost C increases as reliability level

increases
• Increase in investment produces decreasing Investment cost, C
increment in reliability as reliability is increased
• High reliability is expensive to achieve
43
 Incremental cost of reliability (C/R) is one

way of deciding whether an investment is
1.0
worth it
 Does not adequately reflect benefits seen by ΔR
Reliability, R
utility, customer, or society ΔC
 Better way to assess an investment is to

compare reliability cost with reliability worth
(benefit derived by customer and society) Investment cost, C
44
 Basic concept of cost and worth evaluation shown

by cost/reliability curves
 Curves show
– Investment cost increases with higher reliability
– Customer costs associated with failures decrease as
reliability increases
 Total costs  sum of two individual costs
 Total cost exhibits a minimum, so an "optimum”
reliability is achieved
 Difficulties
– Indices derived from approximate models
– Problems in assessing customer perceptions of
system failure costs
45
Table of Contents

 Data collection
46
46
Data Collection
 Meaningful reliability evaluation requires reasonable and acceptable data
 Data not easy to obtain, degree of uncertainty associated with data

– Relative assessments more realistic than absolute ones
 Unlimited data can be collected

– Inefficient and undesirable to collect, analyze, and store more data than required
 Essential to identify how, for what purposes data will be used
47
Data Collection
 Processing of this data occurs in two distinct stages

 Field data first obtained by documenting details of failures as they occur and various
outage durations associated with these failures
 Collected field data analyzed to create statistical indices
 Indices are updated by entry of subsequent new data
48
Data Collection
 Quality of data depends on two important factors: confidence and relevance
 Quality of data, and confidence that can be placed in it, dependent on accuracy
and completeness of compiled information
 Quality of statistical indices also dependent on

– How data is processed
– How much pooling is done
– Age of data currently stored
49
Data Collection
 Two main bases for collecting data

– Component approach
– unit approach
 Unit approach useful for assessing chronological changes in reliability of existing systems
 Unit approach less amenable to the
 Predictive assessment of future system performance
 Effect of various alternative reinforcements schemes
 Reliability characteristics of individual pieces of equipment
 Component approach preferable in these cases
50

Professor, EEE, BUET: A H Chowdhury

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EEE 6906

Reliability of Power System

 Planning for reliability

Planning for Reliability

 Major parts of a power system are generation, transmission, and distribution

 Number of components and their numerous and complex interrelations would

 At present state of development, reliability evaluations are conducted separately

Planning for Reliability

 Power system reliability studies conducted for two purposes

a) Long-term reliability evaluations to assist in long range system planning

b) Short-term reliability predictions to assist in day-to-day operating decisions

Planning for Reliability

 Improvement in system reliability can be effected by using

 Redundancy in generating system means installation of more generating capacity

Planning for Reliability

 Redundancy in stations and in distribution systems means duplication of certain

 Close relation between

 However, no one-to-one relationships between these quantities

Planning for Reliability

 To assess reliability of a power system, aspects of multiple disciplines have to be

 An analysis framework needs to be specified, consisting of

– Definition of system boundaries to limit the extent of analysis

– Selection of proper reliability indices to compute

 Planning for reliability

 Power systems are repairable; they consist of repairable components

 An IEEE Committee classify these failures

Outages and interruptions

 An outage describes state of a component when it is not available to perform its

 An outage may or may not cause an interruption of service to consumers depending

 An interruption is the loss of service to one or more consumers or other facilities

Outage classification by effect

 A partial outage describes a component state where capacity of component to

 A total outage is an outage where component is completely incapable of performing

Outage classification by cause

 Key test to determine if an outage should be classified as forced or

 Deferring an outage may be desirable for example to prevent overload of

Classification of forced outages by duration

Transient forced outage

 A transient forced outage is a component outage whose cause is immediately self-

Persistent forced outage

 A persistent forced outage is a component outage whose cause is not immediately

Interruption classification by cause

Interruption classification by duration

 Planning for reliability

 Construction of Reliability Model

 Deterministic and probabilistic approaches

Construction of Reliability Model

 Factors considered when an analytical model is developed reliability evaluation of

Construction of Reliability Model

Construction of Reliability Model

 Building the model

• all the interactions between components

• environmental factors as weather and load

– Dependent relations must be recognized and appropriately incorporated

Construction of Reliability Model

 Main steps in an actual study

2. Define the criteria for system failure

3. List the assumptions to be used in constructing a model

4. Develop the system model

5. Perform failure effects analysis and compute system reliability indices

6. Analyze and evaluate the results

 Planning for reliability

 Construction of Reliability Model

  EEE 6906

  Reliability of Power System