33 rd INTERNATIONAL COTTON CONFERENCE BREMEN, MARCH 16 - 18, 2016

PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS IN MANMADE FIBRES: IS COTTON ABLE TO

COMPETE?
Bruna Angel
Fibres Consultant
PCI Fibres, a Wood Mackenzie business

ABSTRACT

In the last 25 years global demand for fibres has increased more rapidly than population.
Population rose by 37% to 7.3 billion people while fibres grew by 124% to 88 million tonnes.
While population is an obvious driver of fibre demand there have been other reasons for the high
growth of fibre volumes. These include rising incomes, more affordable fibre, textiles and
apparel products as well as changing attitudes to traditional textile products – used increasingly
as disposable fashion.
Equally as important has been:
• The development of fibres to meet aesthetic and performance challenges in traditional
textile products (such as intrinsic chemical properties, cross-section, diameter, texturing
and bonding).
• Product and process innovation in both traditional and non- traditional textile product
areas where the use of fibres has facilitated market growth. These include woven and
non-woven products in markets as diverse as medical, hygiene, transport, construction
and agricultural.
Manmade fibres contributed 90% of the growth in fibre consumption in the last 25 years with
volumes rising from 19 million tonnes in 1990 to 63 million tonnes in 2015. Consumption of
cotton increased from 19 million tons to 24 million tons in this period.
This presentation explores key fibre and product developments behind the extraordinary volume
growth in manmade fibres as well as future challenges and opportunities.

1/1
 Product
P d t developments
d l t in
i MMF:
MMF
is cotton able to compete?

33rd International Cotton Conference Bremen

March 16 2016

Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
Agenda

 Textile fibre volumes:

» Fibre shares over the last 25 years, today, and a view of the next 15 years.
Cotton’s share slides as polyester grows towards 60% of fibre consumption.
» Cotton still dominant in the staple fibre market, but under pressure from polyester
p
filament and viscose staple.
 As population grows, will cotton keep up with additional fibre demand?
 The challenge of polyester filament to all staple fibres.
 The growth of textile applications: MMF in apparel, home textiles and industrial
products.
 Sustainability: a challenge for MMF
MMF.

2 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
Polyester continues to dominate textile fibre consumption

100 World – Fibre Mill Consumption

80
Million tonnes

60

40

20

0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Polyester F+S Cotton Cellulosic F+S Nylon F+S Polypropylene F+S Acrylic Wool

3 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
The vast majority of MMF production growth has been in China

90
World – MMF Production by Region
80

70

60
Million tonnes
s

50

40

30

20

10

Americas EE/WE/T AME/Aus S Asia India China/HK JKT

4 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
 Excess capacity at polyester filament and staple 2015

50

45

40

35
Million tonnes
s

30

25

20

15

10

0
Filament Staple
Capacty Production

5 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
Asia cotton and polyester staple prices

600 3.0

500 25
2.5

400 2.0

Price ratio
USc/kg

300 1.5

200 1.0

100 0.5

0 0.0
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
n-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan
Cotlook A Index PSF 1.4/1.5x38mm den CFR Asia cotton/PSF price ratio (RHS)

6 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
China cotton and polyester staple prices

600 2.5

500
2.0

400
15
1.5

Price ratio
o
USc/kg

300

1.0
200

0.5
100

0 0.0

Jan--11
Jul--11
Jan--05
Jul--05
Jan--06
Jul--06
Jan--07
Jul--07
Jan--08
Jul--08
Jan--09
Jul--09
Jan--10
Jul--10

Jan--12
Jul--12
Jan--13
Jul--13
Jan--14
Jul--14
Jan--15
Jul--15
Jan--16
CCI Type 3128B China PSF 1.4/1.5x38mm den China cotton/PSF price ratio (RHS)

7 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
Cotton losing share and volume to MMF in women’s dresses

14,000 Annual US Imports of Womens' or Girls' Dresses, Not Knitted '000 DOZ 25,000

11,200 20,000

8,400 15,000

5,600 10,000

2 800
2,800 5 000
5,000

0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mainly cotton Mainly synthetic Mainly artificial Other Total (RHS)

Source: GTIS/PCI Wood Mackenzie

8 Trusted commercial intelligence
www.woodmac.com
Incremental growth in fibre textile mill consumption and
population

40 1.4

35 1.2

30
1.0
25
0.8

n people
n tonnes

20
0.6

Billioin
Million

15
0.4
10
0.2
5

0 0.0
1985 2000
1985-2000 2000 2015
2000-2015 2015 2030
2015-2030
-5 -0.2
Wool Cotton MMF Population (RHS)

9 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
Final demand for MMF now exceeds that for cotton in all
regions
20 Final Demand by Region, Total Volumes - 2015
18
16
14
Million Tonnes

12
10
8
M

6
4
2
0

Wool Cotton MMF

10 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
Is there potential for higher cotton demand in China?

45 Final Demand by Region, kg per Capita - 2015

40

35

30

25
kg/capita

20

15

10

Wool Cotton MMF

11 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
 End-use mix - % share global all-fibres demand 1990-2025
Global all-fibres demand by end-use share (%)

100%
90%
A
Apparel
l H
Household
h ld I d ti l
Industrial
80%
70%
are

60%
% sha

50%
40%
30%
%
20%
10%
0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

% share 1990 2025

Apparel 69.4% 53.4%
Industrial 14.9% 26.1%
Household 15.7% 20.5%

12 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
MMF filament growing faster than staple fibres

60 World – Fibre Mill Consumption

50

40
es
Million tonne

30
M

20

10

0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Cotton Polyester S Cellulosic S Acrylic S
Wool Polypropylene S Nylon S MMF filament

13 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
 Polyester staple fibre – macro end-use applications
Million mt Global PSF macro end-use
end use shares % spinning share

20 90
Spinning Nonwovens

Filling % spinning share ((RHS)

S)
80

70

10 60

50

40

0 30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
14 Trusted commercial intelligence
www.woodmac.com
 Key PSF market segments (ktes) 2015

Market segment % share

Hygiene / wipes 15%

Fillings / waddings 27%

T h i l
Technical 2%

Carpets 4%

Home furnishings 16%

Auto 2%

Activewear 3%

Apparel 33%

Volume total ktes 15868

15 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
 End-use definitions – Apparel Textile Product Format
Knitting Weaving Nonwovens Other
Intimate apparel Textile filament Textile filament Staple nonwovens Textile filament
PE, PA, viscose, cotton, Spun yarns (minority) PE, viscose, minor PP Spun yarns (minority)
wool PE, PA, viscose, cotton PE, PA, viscose
Swimwear Textile filament Textile filament
PE PA,
PE, PA cotton Spun yarns (minority)
PE, PA, cotton
Sportswear Textile filament Textile filament Staple nonwovens Textile filament
Spun yarns Spun yarns Membranes Spun yarns (minority)
PE, PA, cotton, wool, PE, PA, viscose, cotton PE / others PE, PA, viscose, cotton
viscose ACR
viscose,
Hosiery Textile filament
Spun yarns
PA, PE, cotton, ACR, wool
Outerwear Textile filament Textile filament Staple nonwovens Textile filament
Spun yarns Spun yarns Spunbond nonwovens Spun yarns
PE, PA, viscose, cotton, Minor IF yarns PA, PE PE, PA, viscose, cotton,
ACR PE, PA, viscose, cotton, ACR, ACR
wool

Career apparel
pp / Textile filament Textile filament Staple
p nonwovens Textile filament
uniforms Spun yarns Spun yarns Spunbond nonwovens Spun yarns
PE, PA, viscose, cotton, Minor IF yarns PA, PE, PP, viscose PE, PA, viscose, cotton,
ACR PE, PA, viscose, cotton, ACR, ACR
wool

Ethnic costumes Textile filament Textile filament

Spun yarns Spun yarns
PE, PA, cotton PE, PA, viscose, cotton
Diapers and Staple nonwovens
personal Spunbonded nonwovens
.
hygiene
yg PE,, PP,, viscose

*PE=polyester, PA=polyamide, PP=polypropylene, ACR=acrylic. Viscose includes other cellulosic variants.

16 Trusted commercial intelligence
www.woodmac.com
 End-use definitions – Household Textile Product Format

Knitting Weaving Nonwovens Other

Curtains / Textile filament Textile filament Staple nonwovens Textile filament

upholstery Spun yarns Spun yarns Spunbond Spun yarns
PE, PA, viscose, PE, PA, viscose, nonwovens PE, PA, viscose,
cotton, ACR cotton, ACR PE, PP, PA, viscose cotton
Carpets / Filament yarns Staple nonwovens BCF filament
floorcoverings Spun yarns Spunbond Spun yarns
PE, PP, cotton, ACR, nonwovens PE, PP, PA, wool
wool PE, PP, PA
Linen Textile filament Textile filament Staple nonwovens
Spun yarns Spun yarns Spunbond
PE, viscose, cotton PE, PA, viscose, nonwovens
cotton
tt PE PP,
PE, PP viscose
i
Towels Textile filament Spun yarns Staple nonwovens
Spun yarns PE, viscose, cotton PE, PP, viscose
PE, viscose, cotton
Wipes/ Staple nonwovens
cleaning Spunbonded
PE, PP, viscose
All other Textile filament Textile filament Staple nonwovens Textile filament
Spun yarns Spun yarns Spunbond Spun yarns
PE, PP, cotton, ACR PE, PP, cotton, ACR nonwovens PE, PA, viscose,
PE, PP, viscose cotton

*PE=polyester, PA=polyamide, PP=polypropylene, ACR=acrylic. Viscose includes other cellulosic variants

17 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
 End-use definitions – Industrial Textile Product Format
Knitting Weaving Nonwovens Other
Automotive Textile filament Textile filament Staple nonwovens Industrial filament
textiles Spun yarns (minor) Spun yarns (minor) PE, PA, PP PE, PA
PE, PA PE, PA
Light denier Industrial filament Industrial filament
industrial PE, PA PE, PA
Heavy denier Weft insertion / warp knit Industrial filament Industrial filament
industrial PE PE, PA, rayon PE, PA, rayon

Airbags Industrial filament

PE, PA
Geotextiles Industrial filament Staple nonwovens
PE, PP Spunbond nonwovens
PE,, PP
Filtration Textile filament Staple nonwovens
Industrial filament Spunbond nonwovens
PE, PA, high performance PE, PA, PP, high
yarns performance
Composites / Staple, filament
Concrete / PP, glass fibre,
Reinforcement steel etc.

Paper Staple
reinforcement PP
All other Textile filament Textile filament Staple nonwovens Textile filament
Industrial filament Industrial filament Spunbond nonwovens Industrial filament
Spun yarns (minor) Spun yarns (minor) PE, PP, PA, rayon Spun yarns (minor)
PE PP,
PE, PP cotton,
cotton ACR PE PP,
PE, PP cotton,
cotton ACR PE PP
PE, PP, rayon
rayon, ACR
*PE=polyester, PA=polyamide, PP=polypropylene, ACR=acrylic. Viscose includes other cellulosic variants
18 Trusted commercial intelligence
www.woodmac.com
Polyester filament functionalities

Yarn functionality can be modified by various methods….

filament/fibre thickness touch/softness, brushability, drape
bright/dullness level appearance (lustre, shine, matt)
filament/fibre cross section shape appearance & functionality
dye-uptake levels standard dye, deep dye
shrinkage
stretch/recovery
strength/tenacity
bulk

19 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
Adjusting fibre cross-section is the first step to differentiated
product
Very broadly speaking, cross sections are used as follows:
Trilobal, octolobal, tape, diabolo (ie different solid shapes) alter the lustre (and to a
lesser degree handle) of the fabric.
A channelled
h ll d surface
f ((eg Coolmax,
C l G
Gcool)l) iis generally
ll about
b moisture
i transportation,
i
wicking, etc.
Hollow cross sections are used to regulate thermal properties (often to store heat) .
Certain cross sections are used in bicomponent yarns to alter the differential
shrinkage of the two polymer components and so achieve properties like stretch,
different colour values, etc.

20 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
Challenge: marine litter. Plastic waste to the oceans, persistent
macro particles as well as micro and nano particles

Macro plastics in fishing

nets with catch.

Source: ECOALF

21 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
One solution: recycling

Bale of PET bottles ready

for recycling

Source: ECOALF

22 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
 Polyester filament / staple in rPET

million mt Share of polyester variants in rPET

50

45
Virgin rPET
40

35

30
85.6%
25

20

15 95.8%

10 63.1%

5
14.4% 36.9%
98.4% 1.6%
0 4.2%

Total PET PTF PSF PIF

23 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
Polyester in apparel - rPET

100% rPET

Source: http://www.nike.com/

20 denier recycled polyester

p
Source: http://www.eddiebauer.com/

24 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
MMF end-product examples addressing product innovation and
sustainability

 Nike’s Fyknit athletic footwear: Nike Vapor Untouchable: http://news.nike.com/news/nike-vapor-

untouchable-cleat-merges-speed-strength-and-sustainability
g p g y

 Adidas/Parley for the Oceans footwear/Primeknit technology:

http://news.adidas.com/US/Latest-News/ALL/ADIDAS-AND-PARLEY-FOR-THE-OCEANS-SHOWCASE-SUSTAINABILITY-
INNOVATION-AT-UN-CLIMATE-CHANGE-EVENT/s/f66a1b3e-8a9f-48b5-825f-63ddc72c09e7

 Aquafil ECONYL ® http://www.econyl.com/

 Unifi REPREVE http://repreve.com/

 RadiciGroup
G MERMAIDS S challenge – mitigation off the migration off micro and
nano-particles from synthetic textiles during laundering http://www.radicigroup.com/en/news-
media/news/radicigroup-and-cnr_ismac-biella-take-up-the-mermaids-challenge-commitment-to-environmental-sustainability-
30413

 ECOALF http://ecoalf.com/us_en/about/

 Tamicare http://www.tamicare.com/

 Bio-raw materials for MMF.

25 Trusted commercial intelligence

www.woodmac.com
 Thank you

Europe +44 131 243 4400

Americas +1 713 470 1600
Asia Pacific +65 6518 0800
Email bangel@pcifibres.com
Website www.woodmac.com

Wood Mackenzie™, a Verisk Analytics business, is a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's
natural resources sector. We empower clients to make better strategic decisions, providing objective analysis
and advice on assets, companies and markets. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
WOOD MACKENZIE is a trade mark of Wood Mackenzie Limited and is the subject of trade mark registrations and/or applications in
the European Community, the USA and other countries around the world.