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IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE

ENERGY SECTOR IN KUWAIT

Thesis
submitted to

Departmentof Civil Engineering,


University of Petroleum
Dehradun
In Partial Fulfilment ofthe RequirementsoftheAward ofthe
Degreeof Doctor ofPhilosophy
Civil Engineering

by
Syed Mohammed
Shah e Alam

Under the Supervision


of

Prof. Mohammed Sharif Prof. Mohammad Shakeel


Department of Civil Engineering Department of Civil Engineering
Faculty of Engineering and Technology Faculty of Engineering and Technology
Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi

i
Abstract

During the past century, large amounts of greenhouse gases - primarily carbon dioxide,

nitrous oxide, and methane - have been added to the atmosphere. These gases are

generated due to the burning of fossilfuels, mainly to power vehicles, industries, utilities

and appliances. Evidence suggests that the increase in atmospheric concentration of

greenhouse gases has resulted in unprecedented warming of several parts of the world,

including India.More than half of the Indian population depends upon agriculture and

allied activities for their livelihood. Since monsoonal rainfall is the lifeline of agriculture,

any discernible changes in the precipitation patterns caused due to the warming of the

atmosphere are likely to adversely impact the economy of the country. Climate change,

therefore, represents an additional stress on socio-economic systems in India that are

already facing tremendous pressures due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and

economic development. The vulnerability of India to climate change is aggravated owing

to its huge and growing population, a 7500-km long, densely populated and low-lying

coastline, and an economy that is closely tied to its natural resource base.

The objective of the present research is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of

climate change impacts in Satluj river basin in India. The Satluj River originates from

Mansarowar lake in Tibet at an elevation of about 4572 m, and is a major tributary of the

River Indus. The entire Satluj basin lies between latitudes 30° and 33° N and longitudes

76° and 83°E. The Satluj River enters the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh at Shipkila at

an altitude of 6,608 meters, and flows in the south-westerly direction through Kinnaur,

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Shimla, Kullu, Solan, Mandi and Bilaspur districts. The total length of the river is 1,448

km. The Satluj leaves Himachal Pradesh to enter the plains of Punjab at Bhakra, where

the India's highest gravity dam has been constructed. The catchment area of the Satluj to

Bhakra dam is about 56,876 km² of which 36,900 km² lies in Tibet and 19,975 km² in

India.

A well acknowledged method of evaluating climate change impacts is through the

analysis of hydro-meteorological data. Analysis of trends in several hydroclimatic

variables was, therefore, carried out in the present research. The results clearly revealed a

greater number of increasing trends in most of the variables investigated than could be

expected to occur by chance. A clear warming pattern was observed in the basin with the

majority of the stations (six of eight) exhibiting increasing trends in annual average

maximum temperatures (TMX). None of the stations exhibited a statistically significant

decreasing trend in annual TMX. The trends in annual average minimum temperatures

(TMN) were, however, mixed with a bias towards increasing trends.The increased

warming in the basin could have implications for water availability in the basin as the

contribution of snow and glacier melt to annual runoff at Bhakra reservoir is about 60%.

The El- Niño southern oscillation (ENSO)driven by sea-surface temperature changes in

the tropical Pacific Ocean can have major effects on weather conditions around the

world. The ENSO has shown greater variability in recent decades, indicating that it may

strengthen under climate change. The present research investigated the linkages of both

warm and cool phases of ENSOwith the monsoonal precipitation in the Satluj River

iii
basin. The results indicated a negative association between the warm phase and

monsoonal precipitation at the majority of stations in the basin. During the cool phase of

ENSO, a positive association between the monsoonal precipitation was observed in the

majority of stations. It was concluded from the analysis of linkages of ENSO with

monsoonal precipitation in the basin that the warm phase of ENSO is associated with

weak Indian monsoon.

To evaluate the potential impact of climatic changes on the streamflow generation at

Bhakra - a major dam in the basin - a SWAT based hydrological model for the basin was

developed. The changes in seasonal and annual streamflows at Bhakra in response to

PRECIS generated outputs of climate variables for two future time slices of interest;

midcentury (2021-2050) and endcentury (2071-2098) were estimated under A1B, A2 and

B2 emission scenarios. Results indicate a substantial increase in average streamflows at

Bhakra under all the three scenarios. The increase observed in streamflows in the non-

monsoon seasons may be attributed to larger glacier melt contribution caused by

projected higher temperatures for both the future periods considered. Since more than

half of the annual streamflow volume at Bhakra is contributed by glacier melt (Singh and

Jain, 2002), increased streamflows at the reservoir site points towards enhanced melting

in the upper parts of the basin.With increased streamflow volume at Bhakra, the

vulnerability of the basin to high magnitude flooding events is likely to increase under

future scenarios of climate change in the basin.

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Major achievements of the present research include development and application of: (1) a

framework for the identification of trends in hydro-meteorological variables; (2)

methodology for the detection of linkages between large scale climate indices and climate

variables, and (3) SWAT model for evaluating the hydrological response of the basin to

projected changes in climate variables at future time scales of interest. Adaptations to

adverse impacts of climate change is critical for the sustainable development of the study

basin. Information related to streamflow projections should be incorporated into planning

activities by the policy makers.The results presented herein could provide valuable aid to

policy makers in formulating adaptation and mitigation strategies to counteract the

adverse impacts of climate change in Satluj river basin.

v
Declaration

I, Syed Shahe Alam, student of Ph.D. hereby declare that the thesis titled

“Implications of Climate Change for the Energy Sector in Kuwait” which is

submitted by me to the Faculty of Engineering and Technology/ Department of Civil

Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi in partial fulfilment of the requirement

for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy has not previously formed the

basis for the award of any Degree, Diploma Associateship, Fellowship or other

similar title or recognition. This is to declare further that I have also fulfilled the

requirements of para 8 (viii and ix) of the Ph.D. Ordinance, the details of which are

enclosed at the end of the thesis.

New Delhi Syed Shahe Alam

10 February 2016

vi
Certificate

On the basis of declaration submitted by Shah Alam student of Ph.D., we hereby


certify that the thesis titled “Implications of Climate Change for the Energy
Sector in Kuwait” which is submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and Technology
/ Department of Civil Engineering, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi in partial
fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, is an
original contribution with existing knowledge and faithful record of research carried
out by him under our guidance and supervision.

To the best of our knowledge this work has not been submitted in part or full for any
Degree or Diploma to this University or elsewhere.

(Mohammed Sharif, Ph.D) (Mohammad Shakeel, Ph.D)


Professor Professor (Dean)
Department of Civil Engineering Department of Civil Engineering
Faculty of Engineering and Technology Faculty of Engineering and Technology
Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi

New Delhi (Azhar Husain, Ph.D)


Dated: 19 January 2015 Assistant Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
Faculty of Engineering and Technology
Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi

Head of the Department /


Director of the Centre /
Dean of the Faculty

vii
Acknowledgements

First of all, I am thankful to ALLAH THE ALMIGHTY for helping me in every aspect of
life.

I wish to express sincere gratitude to mythesis supervisor Prof. Mohammed Sharif, for his
continued support throughout my study. His suggestions and comments have greatly
helped me throughout the course of this work.He has been benevolent enough to take
time out from his busy schedule for this project and supported me in every respect.I have
learned a lot from his broad and profound knowledge during the long hours that we have
spent together. It has been a pleasure working under his guidance.

I am deeply grateful to my revered project co-advisor Dr. Mohammad Shakeel, Professor,


Head, Department of Civil Engineering, and Dean, Faculty of Engineering and
Technology, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, for his continuous support, stimulating
suggestions and keen interest in my research. I am deeply grateful to my second co-
supervisor Dr. Azhar Husain, who helped me during this project.

I am thankful for the support provided by the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific
Research of Iraq, the university of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq.I would like to thank my donor
agency,the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR), India for providing me the fund
to pursue my studies, and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, for
providing us the data used in this research.

I am deeply indebted to my father, mother, my wife, brothers and sisters for their untiring
spiritual encouragement, patience and sacrifices. Finally, I thank all those who helped me
directly or indirectly in the completion of this thesis.

Ayman T. Hamid
Date : January 2015
Place: New Delhi

viii
Contents

Abstract ii
Declaration vi
Certificate vii
Acknowledgements viii
Contents ix
List of Figures xii
List of Tables xiii

1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 General 1
1.2 Background 5
1.3 Motivation for Work 7
1.4 Objectives of The Present Research 8
1.5 Thesis Contributions 9
1.6 Organisation of The Thesis 10
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 12
2.1 General 12
2.2 Global Climate Change Studies 13
2.3 Climate Change Studies in South-East Asia 15
2.4 Climate Change Studies in Himalayan Region 18
2.5 Hydro-Climatic Studies in Satluj River Basin Error! Bookmark not defined.
2.6 Climate Change Impact Studies in the Middle-east region 21
3. STUDY AREA AND DATA USED 25
3.1 Description of The Study Area 25
3.1.1 Satluj River in Himachal Pradesh Error! Bookmark not defined.
3.2 Data Used 28
3.3 Global Climate Models 28
3.4 Regional Climate Models 30
ix
3.5 Climatic Scenarios 33
3.6 RCPs 36
4. TREND ANALYSIS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA 41
4.1 General 41
4.2 Time Series Analysis 41
4.3 Mann-Kendall Nonparametric Test 42
4.4 Datasets Used 45
4.5 Trend Analysis of Temperature Data 46
4.5.1 Trends in Average Temperature 51
4.5.2 Seasonal Trends in TMX 53
4.5.3 Seasonal Trends in TMN 54
4.6 Precipitation Trends 56
4.6.1 Trends in Annual and Monsoon Rainfall 57
4.7 Discussion and Conclusions 58
5. PROJECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES
OVER KUWAIT 62
5.1 Introduction 62
5.2 Methodology 63
5.2.1 The Climate Wizard Tool 63
5.3 Methodology 64
5.3.1 Climate Change Knowledge Portal 65
5.4 Temperature Projections 66
5.5 Conclusions 67
6. ENERGY-TEMPERATURE MODELING USING R PACKAGE 68
7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 70
7.1 Summary of the Work Carried Out 70
7.2 Achievement of The Research 74
7.3 Limitations of The Research 75
7.4 Recommendations for Further Research 76
7.4.1 Trend Analysis 76
7.4.2 Linkages of Climate Indices 77
7.4.3 Hydrological Modelling 77

x
References 80

xi
List of Figures

Figure 1.1 Variation of CO2 concentration with time 3

Figure 1.2 Variation of CH4 concentration with time 4

Figure 1.3 Departure of temperatures from 1961-1990 average under different scenariosError! Bookmar

Figure 3.1 Location, stream network and DEM of Satluj River Basin 28

Figure 3.2 Image of Satluj Basin obtained using Google EarthError! Bookmark not defined.

Figure 3.3 A screen shot of the RCP on-line database showing RPC6.0 spatial data for
industry emissions for the year 2020. 37

Figure 3.4 RCP on-line database graphic showing RCP6 spatial data for industry
COe emissions for the year 2010 38

Figure 3.5 RCP on-line database graphic showing the projected RCP6 emissions
in the year 2100. 39

Figure 4.1 Average monthly TMX at 8 stations in Satluj River Basin 46

Figure 4.2Average monthly TMN at 8 stations in Satluj River Basin 47

Figure 4.3The spatial distribution of average TMX (°C) at Satluj Basin(1985-2010) 47

Figure 4.4 The spatial distribution of average TMN (°C) at Satluj Basin (1985-2010) 48

Figure 4.5Direction of trends in annual TMX and TMN 52

Figure 4.6 Seasonal trends in TMX Error! Bookmark not defined.

Figure 4.7 Seasonal trends in TMN 56

Figure 4.8 Barplots of average monthly rainfall at different stations in Satluj Basin 57

xii
List of Tables

Table 4.1 Availability of meteorological data at Satluj river basin 45

Table 4.2 List of variables 48

Table 4.3 Trends in average annual temperature 51

Table 4.4 Trends in seasonal maximum temperature 54

Table 4.5 Trends in seasonal minimum temperature 55

Table 4.7 Trends in annual, monsoon and winter precipitation 57

xiii
1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 General

During the past century, large amounts of greenhouse gases - primarily carbon dioxide,

nitrous oxide, and methane - have been added to the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases

are generated mainly due to the burning of fossils to power vehicles, industries, utilities

and appliances. Due to the rapid increase in industrial production and spur in economic

growth in many parts of the world, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere is exhibiting an increasing trend. The alarming fact is that emissions have not

stabilized despite efforts by several government and non-governmental agencies.

Presence of large amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is leading to the

enhanced greenhouse effect which is likely to lead to an upward trend in global average

temperature and associated climate changes (IPCC, 2007).The United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change defines climate change as "a change of

climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the

composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate

variability observed over comparable time periods". According to IPCC (IPCC 2007a),

warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of

increases in global average air and water temperatures, widespread melting of snow and

ice, and rising global average sea level.

Climate change is perceived to be the biggest challenge facing the mankind today. Many

aspects of the natural environment are likely to be impacted due to change in the climate.
1
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) defines

climate change as "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human

activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to

natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods." Warming of the

climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global

average air and water temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising

global average sea level” (IPCC 2007a, Working Group I Summary for Policymakers, p.

5). During the past century, humans have substantially added huge amount of gases in the

atmosphere by burning fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas, oil and gasoline to power

cars, factories, utilities and appliances. These gases -primarily carbon dioxide, nitrous

oxide, and methane -are known as green house gases.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted naturally during respiration by plants and by all

animals, fungi, and micro-organisms that depend either directly or indirectly on plants for

food. It is also generated as a by-product of the combustion of fossil fuels or the burning

of vegetable matter, among other chemical processes. Other sources of CO2 include

volcanoes, geothermal processes such as hot springs and geysers and dissolution of

carbonates in crustal rocks. Methane (CH4) is another major greenhouse gas and can lead

to more rapid global warming than CO2. It is emitted from burning of fuel in vehicles.

Cattle ranching are another major source of methane emissions. Demand for dairy

products has shown a rapid growth in recent years leading to huge increase in methane

emissions. Flooded rice cultivation produces methane by the fermentation of the organic

matter in the soil. It is released from submerged soils through the roots and stems of rice

2
plants. The variation of concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere is

shown in Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2 respectively. It can be seen from Figure 1.1 and

Figure 1.2 that the concentration of CO2 and CH4 began to increase in the atmosphere

around 1760 – the time when the first industrial revolution began. Further increase in the

concentration of greenhouses can be noticed during the Second Industrial Revolution,

also known as the Technological Revolution - a phase of the larger industrial revolution

corresponding to the latter half of the 19th century until World War I. During the 20th

century the rate of increase of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has

been rapid.

Figure 1.1 Variation of CO2 concentration with time

3
Figure 1.2 Variation of CH4 concentration with time

Due to huge emissions, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely

to double by 2050 (Jenkins and Derwint, 1990). In most developing countries, climate

change represents an additional stress on ecological and socioeconomic systems that are

already facing tremendous pressures due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and

economic development. Results of several recent studies have confirmed that the Asian

region is indeed warming, and the trend of warming is broadly consistent with the global

warming trend (Singh et al. 2008). As a consequence, many aspects of the natural

environment, including energy sector, are anticipated to experience potentially serious

climatic impacts in the middle-east region.

Global warming is responsible for the ongoing change in climate being experienced in

almost all parts of the world including the middle-east. The problems caused by climate

change are amplified for regions that are likely to be impacted economically. Most of the
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middle-east is economically strong and therefore highly vulnerable to the impacts of

climate change. The phenomenon of climate change has a cascading effect which means

a problem in one part of the world gets transported to other parts of the world in a slow

but steady manner. In the middle-east which has a hot climate, the impact of global

warming will be significant. Adaptation to changing climate is therefore crucial for the

countries in the middle-east region. A significant impact of the ongoing climate change is

likely also on the bio-diversity of the Middle East region. Many world organizations have

established strategic plans for climate change such as the Global Strategy for Plant

Conservation which was adopted in 2002 by the conference of the Parties of the

convention on biological diversity. Most middle-east countries are under tremendous

stress due to natural and anthropogenic factors. Kuwait being a prominent country of the

middle-east region is vulnerable to the degrading effects and risks of climate change.

1.2 Background
There is ample evidence to suggest that global climate is changing in an unprecedented

manner largely due to increase in global mean temperatures (Folland et al. 2001a, b;

Jones and Moberg, 2003) and perceptible changes in precipitation patterns in different

parts of the world. Global mean temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.07 °C per

decade over the last century, but the warming has not been uniform everywhere with high

northern latitudes particularly affected (Jones and Moberg 2003). A large percentage of

the warming during the late period of record is likely due to anthropogenic activities

resulting in the increase of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This is

difficult to explain solely by our understanding of the natural variability of the climate

5
system. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC 2007) showed a global warming of about 0.2°C decade-1 for a range of

emission scenarios outlined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) over

the next 2 decades. An alarming fact is that the rate at which greenhouse gas emissions in

the atmosphere are increasing in the atmosphere is unlikely to decrease in the near term.

Even if the greenhouse gases and aerosols were to stabilize around year 2000 levels, a

0.1°C per decade global increase in temperatures is projected (IPCC 2007). The impacts

at regional levels are likely to be more variable.

Global climate models (GCMs) predict a near-surface warming trend under rising levels

of atmospheric greenhouse gases, which may be enhanced at high elevations. In general,

it is perceived that global warming will lead to an increased vigour in the hydrological

cycle, and, therefore, increased water availability. However, more complex impacts may

be experienced in snow and glacier dominated regions, where annual water availability is

closely linked to winter snowfall and summer melt. Carbon dioxide is a major greenhouse

house emitted in huge quantities from vehicular emissions - a major source of global

warming. Currently, CO2 emissions from the transportation sector in India are at 15%, but

it is projected to increase to 25 % in the next decade mainly due to rapid growth in the

transportation sector. Consequently, average temperatures in several parts of India are

likely to exhibit increasing trends, which makes India highly vulnerable to the impacts of

climate change.

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1.3 Motivation for Work

Carbon dioxide emissions from countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates

(UAE) are high compared with Europe. In Qatar and UAE it is 59.56 and 29.2 metric

tonne per capita respectively. By comparison the figures for the European Union (EU)

and the United States of America (USA) are 8.09 and 17.82 respectively. Temperatures in

the Gulf region have increased 50 percent faster than the global average. This was

revealed in a World Bank report presented alongside the Doha summit in Qatar in

November 2012. Kuwait, for example, measured temperatures in excess of 52 °C. Kuwait

has been blessed with oil and gas but unfortunately does not have adequate fresh water,

and also have a hot climate. The ability to grow food is limited as well. Many climate

change issues are exclusive to Kuwait. Due to hot and humid climate, the demand for

electricity is very high. A significant amount of electricity consumption is for

desalination of water. Both the air-conditioning and desalination are highly energy

intensive processes. Burning fossil fuels (primarily gas) to produce electricity and water

releases greenhouse gases, mainly Carbon di oxide. In fact, approximately 90% of the

CO2 that Kuwait emits is caused by the process of burning fossil fuels to provide energy.

As a result, large amount of CO2 emissions are released in the atmosphere. Undoubtedly

climate change will impact Kuwait as well as other middle-east countries significantly in

the future.

Temperature is an important climatic parameter that drives the energy demand. Analysis

of these changes is considered significant for electricity demand evaluation. Due to

7
increased temperatures, the demand of electricity is expected to increase. Any major

changes in the electricity demnad arising out of changes in temperature may have a

devastating impact on te economoy of a country. From an engineering perspective, it is of

utmost importance to understand and identify the changes that have taken place in the

past in order to be able to consider their impact in future planning and design activities.

Therefore, it is important to analyze trends in histrorical temperature data for the Kuwait

region. Also, projections of temperature change shall constitute an important component

of future energy planning for Kuwait. Therefore, projections of temperature changes

under different global climate models shall be obtained and analyzed in order to be able

to arrive at meaningful forecasts of energy demands in future.

1.4 Objectives of The Present Research

Global warming coupled with changing weather patterns and extreme weather events is

likely to affect energy demand and impact energy production and transmission in many

parts of the world, including Kuwait. Therefore, the major objective of the proposed

research is to analyze the impacts of climate change on the energy sector in Kuwait. The

energy sector produces the largest share of greenhouse gases, and is directly responsible

for surface air temperature increases. The aim of the proposed research is to develop

policies that would assist in meeting the internationally agreed 2°C target for global

warming. For reliable assessment of future energy demands, it is important to evaluate

projected temperature changes over Kuwait for different combinations of global

circulation models and emission scenarios. The specific objectives of the proposed

8
research are as follows.

 To carry out a review of literature related to studies aimed at assessment of climate

change impacts on the energy sector in various parts of the world

 To analyze projected temperature changes over Kuwait for different combinations of

GCMs and emission scenarios

 To analyze spatial patterns of projected temperature changes over Kuwait

 To develop relationships between energy demand with average temperatures on daily,

monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales

 To explore and recommend various options which would enable the energy sector to

improve its resilience to climate change

 To explore and recommend options that can result in substantial mitigation of greenhouse

gas emissions from the energy sector

1.5 Thesis Contributions


The proposed research has the potential to contribute towards modelling efforts aimed at

understanding energy issues in Kuwait. A comprehensive analysis of projected

temperature changes for the two future time periods, namely mid century (2050) and end

century (2100) will be carried out. A major output of the proposed research will be a

predictive statistical model for energy demand in Kuwait under different scenarios of

climate change. Based upon the derived relationships, it would be possible to forecast

future energy demands under different combinations of global circulation models and

9
emission scenarios. A number of strategies through which the energy sector could

improve its resilience to climate change will be recommended. Several steps that could be

taken by the government of Kuwait to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change

shall be suggested. Strategies for effective utilization of available energy and reduction of

energy demands shall also be recommended. Finally, the research shall make

recommendations that could facilitate an increased use of emission reduction options by

the stakeholders in the energy sector. The findings of the proposed research would assist

the decision makers in Kuwait to devise strategies to curtail greenhouse gas emissions

while meeting increased energy demands in the future.

1.6 Organisation of The Thesis


The thesis is organized into eight chapters.

Chapter 1 describes the fundamentals of climate change, discusses the background

information, motivation for work and provides the objectives and contributions of the

present research. It brings to focus the problems experienced in the Kuwait region in light

of the changing environment and climate.

Chapter 2 provides a review of studies conducted in different regions of the world to

analyze trends in hydro-meteorological variables. Also, a review of literature describing

climate change impact studies in the middle-east region has been presented.

Chapter 3 presents a description of the Kuwait city - the study area for the region. The

climate and topography of the study area has been described in this chapter. The details

10
of data used in the present study have been described in this chapter.

Chapter 4 describes the methodology for the analysis of trends in the hydro-

meteorological variables, including streamflows. An analysis of trends has been

presented in the chapter.

Chapter 5 presents the analysis of projected temperature changes in the Kuwait region

under new emission scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

for different combinations of global climate models (GCMs) and future time scales.

Chapter 6 describes the methodology for the development of relationship between energy

demand and average temperature for the city of Kuwait.

Chapter 7 presents the provides the conclusions of the research. The chapter lists the

achievement of the research and outlines the limitations of the work carried out. Several

recommendetions to improve the resilience of energy sector to climate change have been

made in this chapter. A number of strategies that can result in substantial mitigation of

greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector have been described in this chapter.

Recommendations for future research are also provided in this chapter.

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2. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 General
This chapter presents a review of literature relevant to the present research. The review of

literature presented in this chapter was considered essential in order to put the work

carried out in this thesis in context.The rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere due to human activities such as land use changes and dependence upon fossil

fuels has led to global warming and global energy unbalance (Huang et al., 2011; Rashid

and Babel, 2012). A major impact of climate change is on the occurrence of extreme

precipitation events leading to increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events

such as floods and droughts (IPPC, 2007). Changes in the total amount of precipitation -

its frequency and intensity - when on the surplus side may affect the magnitude and

timing of runoff, but would create drought like situations when on the deficit side

(Gosain et al. 2006). As a result, hydrological systems are anticipated to experience not

only the changes in the average availability of water but also changes in the climate

extremes(Simonovic and Li, 2003; Klein et al. 2003). One of the most important and

immediate effects of global warming would be the changes in local and regional water

availability (Jiang et al., 2007). The occurrence of droughts or floods and water resources

management practices are likely to be impacted as well, particularly at regional scales

(Bronstert et al., 2007). Understanding the potential effects of climate change on

hydrological regimes has thus become a priority area, both for process research and for

water and catchment management strategies (Jones and Woo, 2002).

12
2.2 Global Climate Change Studies
Temperature is an important climatic variable that affects the climate system (Sang

2012). Increase in temperature alters energy balance and tends to warm the atmosphere

resulting in changes in the climate (Dibike and Coulibaly 2005;Li et al. 2011). The fourth

Assessment Report (4AR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had

reported a 0.74°C increase in the global mean surface temperature during the last hundred

years (1906-2005). In the last 50 years, a significant increasing trend with a rate of

0.13°C every 10 years has been reported. The average global temperature increased by

approximately 0.6±0.20C during the 20th century, which was greater than in any other

century in the last 1,000 years. The warming rate became even more pronounced during

the second half of the last century, which was predominantly due to the increase in

anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2001;Graedel and

Crutzen, 1993). During the 21st century, the global mean surface temperature is projected

to increase approximately from 1.1 to 6.4°C (IPCC, 2007b).

Streamflow records provide indications of the extent of the climate change impacts on

water resources. The effects of climate change on streamflow and related variables are

important for water resource systems managers. Hydro-meteorological measures based

on streamflows could be used to detect possible impacts of climate change (Westmacott

and Burn 1997). Numerous studies have been carried out in various regions of the world

to investigate trends in hydro-meteorological variables, including streamflows with a

view to detect impacts of climate change. Burns et al. (2007) analyzed recent climate

trends and its implications for water resources in the Catskill region of United States of

13
America using 9 temperature, 12 precipitation and 8 hydrometric sites. Fleming and

Clarke (2003) investigated trends in annual streamflow volume in northern British

Columbia and the Yukon.Déry and Wood (2005) found a decreasing trend in streamflow

in the Canadian Arctic, and attributed it to various large scale atmospheric phenomena.

Novontny and Stefan (2007) examined stream flow records from 36 gauging stations in

five major river basins of Minnesota, USA for trend and correlations using Mann-Kendal

test and moving averages method. Andrea and Depetris (2007) present an overview of

discharge trends and flow dynamics of South American rivers draining the southern

Atlantic seaboard. Lindstrom and Bergstrom (2004) analyzed time series of annual runoff

volumes and annual as well as seasonal flood peaks in Sweden. Zhang et al. (2001),

Hodgkins et al. (2003), and Hodgkins and Dudley (2006) used the centre of volume date

to define the timing of runoff. Burn (1994) and Westmacott & Burn (1997) examined the

impacts of climate change on the timings of spring runoff. Burn et al. (2004a, b)

investigated trends and variability in hydrological variables for natural streamflow

gauging stations for the Liard and Mackenzie River Basin in northern Canada. Both

basins exhibited an increase in winter flows and some increase in spring runoff. Aziz and

Burn (2006) and Burn (2008) noted earlier onset of the spring freshet over Mackenzie

River Basin. Novotny and Stefan (2007) observed that the threat of flooding has

increased due to rainfall events than snow melt in five major river Basins of Minnesota,

USA. It was concluded that the threat of flooding has increased due to rainfall events than

due to snow melt.A brief overview of techniques used for trend detection has been

presented by Kundzewicz and Robson (2004).

14
2.3 Climate Change Studies in South-East Asia
Impacts of climate change on hydrological systems may vary from region to region. Most

rivers in this region originate from the Himalayas, and therefore a significant impact on

hydrological regime cannot be ruled out. In south Asia, the melting of Himalayan glaciers

is the major concern arising out of the changed climate in the region, which would have

serious implications for water availability in the region. Several studies have reported that

warming has taken place over India (Arora et al. 2005, Singh et al. 2008), Bangladesh

(Ahmad and Warrick 1996), and Nepal (Shrestha et al. 1999). Shrestha et al. (1999)

reported increases of 0.61°C, 0.90°C and 1.24°C per decade in winter maximum

temperatures for Nepal, Himalayan and trans-Himalayan climate stations respectively.

Arora et al. (2005) investigated temperature trend all over India. The results showed that

mean temperature has increased by 0.94°C per 100 years for the post monsoon season

and 1.1°C per 100 years for the winter season. Singh et al. (2008) analysed temperature

records of nine river basins in northwest and central India using Mann-Kendall non-

parametric test. Results of analysis revealed that 7 of 9 basins have a warming trend.

Singh et al. (2007) indicated an increasing trend of annual rainfall and relative humidity

in northwest and central Indian river basins. The minimum variation was observed in

monsoon rainfall. Dash and Hunt (2007) investigated the temperature and precipitation

trends over north and south Indian parts. Jhajharia et al. (2009) reported that in yearly and

seasonal rainfall of northeast India, no significant trends at eight sites, increasing trend at

two sites while decreasing trend at one site were observed in winter rainfall out of a total

of eleven sites.

15
Marco et al. (2003) analyzed temperature data of 160 climate stations in China using

Mann-Kendall and inverse distance methods. An increasing temperature trend was

detected all over the country; however the negative trend was detected in high latitude

regions during summer. Winter period showed a warming trend with 95% significant

level in southwest of Xinjiang and southwest of Tibet region.CICERO (2000) estimated a

temperature rise of 0.9°C for Pakistan by 2020 and predicted that the temperature rise

could double by 2050. Overall, increasing temperature trend was reported in China and

negative trend was detected in high latitude regions during summer. Fowler & Archer

(2005) examined temperature data (1961-99) of seven climate stations in the Karakoram

and Hindukush mountains using regression techniques, and detected a winter warming

and a summer cooling trend. Immerzeel (2007) studied the monthly high-resolution

temperature and precipitation data from 1900-2002 for three physiographic zones viz.,

the Tibetan Plateau, the Himalayan belt and floodplains. Throughout the basin a warming

trend at an average rate of 0.6 °C per 100 years was revealed. All zones showed a larger

warming trend in spring and smallest trend in summer. However, the study did not reveal

any trend in the precipitation and suggested that the annual precipitation is primarily

controlled by monsoon dynamics.

Many precipitation trend studies have also been carried out in the South Asia region

(e.g.Zhang et al. 2005, Huang 2009). Changes in the total amount of precipitation, its

frequency and intensity when on the surplus side may affect the magnitude and timing of

runoff, but shall create drought-like situations when these are on the deficit side

(Gosainet al. 2006). On the contrary, Raziei et al. (2005) concluded that precipitation in

16
Iran has a decreasing trend. Kezer and Matsuyama (2006) investigated runoff trends for

Ili and East rivers in central Asia. No statistically significant change was observed except

for runoff. Chen et al. (2007) investigated temporal (1951-2003) trends of annual and

seasonal precipitation, temperature and runoff in the Hanjiang basin in China using

Mann-Kendall and the linear regression methods. Results indicated that precipitation has

no significant trend, but a significant increasing trend for temperature was seen in most

parts of the basin. Further, decreasing trend was seen in mean annual, spring, and winter

runoffs in the Danjiangkou reservoir basin. Hua et al. (2007) analysed temporal trends of

annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature in the Hanjiang basin in China using

Mann-Kendall and linear regression techniques. It was observed that temperature has a

significant upward trend, but precipitation has no trend. Analysis of temporal trends of

runoff in Danjiangkou reservoir basin indicated an increasing trend. Zhang et al. (2006)

investigated trends in water levels and streamflow in Yangtze river basin in China.

Results of several recent studies have confirmed that the South Asia region is indeed

warming and the trend of warming is broadly consistent with the global warming trend.

As a consequence, many aspects of the natural environment, including water resources,

are anticipated to experience potentially serious climate impacts in the South Asia region.

Recent IPCC report (IPCC, 2007a) clearly indicates the likelihood of considerable

warming over sub-regions of South Asia with greater warming in winter than in summer.

Results of multimodel GCM runs under Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)

B1 and A1F1 project an increase in average temperature over the whole of South Asia

with the greatest increase being projected for winter months. The projected rise in

17
temperature for the winter months is particularly alarming as it exceeds the limit of global

mean surface temperature rise of 1.8 to 4°C reported by IPCC (IPCC, 2007b).

2.4 Climate Change Studies in Himalayan Region


The Himalayan region has the largest snow and ice cover in the world outside the polar

region, and is therefore known as the third pole (Schild 2008). The Himalayan mountain

system is the source of one of the world’s largest supplies of fresh water. All the major

South Asian rivers originate in the Himalayas and their upper catchments are covered

with snow and glaciers. Global climate models (GCMs) for the region predict a near-

surface warming trend under rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, which may

be enhanced at higher elevations (Sharif et al. 2012). The now-refuted statements (IPCC,

2007) concerning the predicted rapid retreat and disappearance of Himalayan glaciers and

consequent drastic reduction in downstream river flows has spurred vigorous debate on

changes in glacier mass balance (Berthier et al., 2007) and river flow, and the nature and

role of climate trends and variability (Immerzeel et al., 2008; Jain et al. 2009;Bookhagen

and Burbank, 2010) in the region. Climate change concerns in the Himalayan region are

diverse and range from floods, droughts, landslides (Barnett et al. 2005), human health,

biodiversity, endangered species, agriculture livelihood, and food security (Xu et al.

2005). Owing to difficulties in ground-based high-altitude climate measurement,

understanding of links between climate, glacier mass balance and river flow for the

region remains weak (Stahl et al., 2008) both for direct analysis and for validation of

satellite remotely sensed data.

18
A limited number of studies have been carried out in the Himalayan region to analyze

available temperature and precipitation data in the basin. Bhutiyani et al. (2007) found a

significant rise in air temperature in the northwest Himalayan (NWH) region by about

1.6°C in the last century, with winters warming at a faster rate. The diurnal temperature

range (DTR) also showed a significantly increasing trend. This appears to be due to a rise

in both the maximum as well as minimum temperatures, with the maximum increasing

much more rapidly. In general, it is thought that global warming will cause an

intensification of the hydrological cycle and thus, increased water availability. However,

in snow and glacier dominated regions, where annual water availability is closely related

to winter snowfall and summer melt, changes in temperature may have more complex

impacts.Dash et al. (2007) report that during the last few decades, the Himalayan and

Tibetan Plateau region have been warming at a rate higher than that in the last century.

An increase of 0.5 C in annual average maximum temperature during 1971-2005 was

reported compared to 1901-1960.Immerzeel (2008) found a basin wide warming trend of

0.6 °C/ 100 year for the 1901-2002 gridded dataset for the Brahmaputra basin in the

eastern Indian Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau.

Fowler and Archer (2006) examined temperature data of seven climate stations in the

Karakoram and Hindu Kush mountains of the upper region of Upper Indus Basin for

seasonal and annual trends using regression techniques. Mean and maximum winter

temperatures showed significant increase while mean and minimum summer

temperatures showed consistent decline. Fowler and Archer (2006) found a consistent

increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) in all seasons and annual dataset, which is in

19
direct contrast to studies in most parts of the world that show a narrowing of DTR (Karl

et al. 1993; Jones, 1999). Khattak et al. (2011) investigated trends in several hydro-

meteorological variables in the Indus River basin. Shrestha et al. (1999) analysed

maximum temperature data from 49 stations in Nepal for the period 1971–94 revealing

warming trends after 1977 ranging from 0.06° to 0.12°C per year in most of the Middle

Mountain and Himalayan regions, while the Siwalik and Terai (southern plains) regions

showed warming trends of less than 0.03°C per year.

The Himalayan region has more than 12000 glaciers (ICIMOD, 2001), and the

contribution of snow and glacier melt to streamflow at Bhakra, the major reservoir in the

Satluj basin - the study area for the research - is around 59%. Any discernible trends in

temperature are likely to have an adverse impact on the availability of water in the basin.

Jain et al. (2008b) conducted a study to assess the accuracy of MODIS, NOAA and IRS

data in snow cover mapping under Himalayan conditions. The total snow cover area was

estimated using these three datasets for 15 dates spread over 4 years. The results were

compared with ground-based estimation of snow cover. A good agreement was observed

between satellite-based estimation and groundbased estimation. The influence of aspect

in snow cover area estimation was analysed for the three satellite datasets and it was

observed that MODIS produced better results. It was concluded that MODIS data could

be effectively used for snow cover area estimation under Himalayan conditions, which is

a vital parameter for snowmelt runoff estimation. Jain et al. (2008a) identified the

relationship between snow accumulation with elevation and aspect in rugged terrain in

the Himalayan region. The river basins of four tributaries of the River Indus i.e. Satluj,

20
Chenab, Ravi and Beas located in the western Himalaya were considered for the study.

Snow covered area was estimated for a period of 2 years (01 Jan 2003 to 17 Dec 2004)

using MODIS 8 days’ maximum snow cover products. A two-year average showed that

Satluj has the minimum snow covered area 23%, while Chenab has the highest snow

covered area, i.e. 42%, Ravi and Beas has 33% and 38% respectively. The minimum

elevation from where the snow covered area begins to appear has been calculated. It was

observed that in the case of Satluj, snow appears at a higher elevation (1,369 m)

compared to Chenab, Ravi and Beas where it appears at elevations of 834 m, 1058 m,

and 1264 m, respectively. It was found that the aspect variable has a major impact on

snow accumulation in the lower elevations in all the basins as compared to higher

elevations.

2.5 Climate Change Impact Studies in the Middle-east region

Climate change impacts are already visible in the Kingdom. A World Bank report
presented alongside the Doha summit in Qatar in November 2012 revealed that the rate of
increase of temperatures in the middle-east region is more than 50 percent higher than the
global average. This has resulted in an alarming situation for the region that is already
seeing temperatures in excess of 50 °C in some areas. The summer of 2010 was
exceptionally warm in the Arab region with temperatures reaching upto 52.0 °C in
Jeddah (WMO 2011). Gulf News reported that unprecedented heat in the summer of 2010
resulted in huge demand for electricity, forcing eight power plants to close down and
leaving several Saudi cities without power (Gulf News 2010). Contrastingly, Hail
(27.44◦N, 41.69◦E), a station located in the northern part of the country recorded a
minimum temperature of −10 ◦C on the 16th of January 2008. Such temperature extremes
could pose a serious impact on the socio-economic aspects such as agriculture, water
resources, power generation, human health, urbanization, drought, and cold- and heat-

21
wave extremes (Almazroui 2012 b).

Due to the scarcity of fresh water resources and uncertainty associated with rainfall, the
ability to grow food in Saudi Arabia is limited. Around half of the irrigation system in the
country depend on aquifers in the valley basins that are depleted occasionally due to low
precipitation (Alkolibi 2002). During the last decade, groundwater has extensively been
used for agriculture, which has caused groundwater depletion to alarming levels (Al
Zawad and Aksakal 2010, Alkolibi 2002). Surface and groundwater withdrawal as a
percentage of the total renewable water resources was estimated at 943% in 2007 and
92% of that is used by the agricultural sector (FAO 2009). At the same time, 100% of the
land under cultivation of wheat was in full or partial control irrigation schemes.
Regardless of climate change, the problem of unsustainable water use is so significant
that in January 2008 Saudi Arabia announced to halt wheat self-sufficiency policy and
phase out domestic wheat production entirely by 2016 (Souhail Karam (Reuters) 2008).

Understanding climate change issues require analysis of time series of climate data. In the
recent past, several studies have focussed on the analysis of climate data for Saudi
Arabia. Almazroui et al. (2013) analyzed trends in temperature extremes over Saudi
Arabia, and found that the temperature extremes in Saudi Arabia have increased
significantly in the recent-past (1996–2010) compared to the 1981–1995 period.
Almazroui et al. (2012a) found that the mean temperature in Saudi Arabia increased at
0.60 °C per decade for the period 1978−2010. Further findings of Almazroui et al.
(2012b) indicated that the warming rate is greater for the dry season (June to September)
compared to the wet season (November to April). Rehman (2010) analyzed temperature
data from a station in Dehran and found a warming trend of 0.5 °C per decade. ElNesr et
al. (2010) analyzed evapo-transpiration data from 29 weather stations in Saudi Arabia
over the period 1980-2008, and found a significant increase in the evapo-transpiration
over the study period, probably caused by an increase in temperature during the summer
months. Even though crops are predominantly grown on irrigated land, crop yield
(metric ton/ha) may decline due to increase in evapo-transpiration - a function of
22
temperature (FAO 2009). Chowdhury and Al-Zahrani (2013) investigated the
implications of climate change on water resources in Saudi Arabia. However, the grid
size considered by them was coarse (2.5 latitude and 3.75 longitude). Temperature
increases in the range of 1.8 °C to 4.1 °C were estimated which, the authors claim, would
increase the agricultural water demands by 5-15% to sustain current agricultural
production levels. Alkolibi (2002) assessed possible impacts of climate change on
agriculture and water resources in Saudi Arabia through the analysis of outputs from
global circulation models (GCMs). It was concluded that the increase in temperature
accompanied by a reduction in precipitation could have a major adverse impact on
agriculture and water supplies in Saudi Arabia.

Several researchers from around the world have investigated future changes in climatic
variables using different techniques. Yinlong et al. (2006) analyzed changes of surface air
temperature and precipitation in three time slices of the 21st century under A2 and B2
scenarios using PRECIS – a regional climate model system. It was demonstrated that the
extreme maximum temperature and precipitation events would increase, while the
extreme minimum temperature events would decrease during 2071 - 2100 under B2
scenario over China relative to baseline (1961 -1990) average. Serrat-Capdevela et al. (
2007) studied climate change impacts on the water budget and dynamics of aquifer in
south-eastern Arizona and northern Sonora in the USA using outputs from 17 GCMs.
The data from the GCMs were obtained by Serrat-Capdevela et al. ( 2007) using
MAGICC (The Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change).
Alam and Sharif (2013) carried out an assessment of climate change scenario in the
middle-east region with particular emphasis on the state of Kuwait. Al Zawad (2008)
studied the impact of climate change over Saudi Arabia using PRECIS. Analysis showed
warmer temperature, greater precipitation, less evaporation, and greater runoff with A2
scenario compared to B2. An average increase of 4.2 °C and 3 °C in the daily surface
average temperature over Saudi Arabia was estimated under A2 and B2 scenarios
respectively. Saudi Arabia is expected to experience mainly decreases in precipitation, in
common with the majority of the Middle East (UKMO 2011). Reductions of up to 20%

23
or higher are projected in the northwest of the country, with a strong ensemble
agreement. Smaller decreases are projected towards the south and east, while increases of
up to 20% or more projected for the far southeast (UKMO 2011).

24
3. STUDY AREA AND DATA USED

3.1 Description of The Study Area

The study area for the present research is the State of Kuwait in the middle-east region.
Kuwait lies on the Arabian Gulf; its geography is made up of mostly flat desert on the
mainland, and nine islands off the coast, some marshy and uninhabited. The climate of
Kuwait can be extreme, with temperatures ranging from very cold to very hot,
although the average annual temperature is 33 °C. The long and dry summer extends May
through October. The August is the the hottest month with an average temperature of 44
°C. The winters are mild, with January the coolest month, with an average temperature of
7 °C. Rain storms may occur, and the wind may cause dust storms. The contribution of
water to the carbon footprint of the region is something peculiar to the Gulf states
including Kuwait because most of their drinking water comes from desalinated seawater.
Kuwait experienced the effects of human-induced climate change following the Gulf
War; Iraqis set oil wells on fire while retreating. The fires burned an average of 5 million
barrels of oil, and 70 million cubic meters of gas per day, producing emissions of carbon
dioxide (500,000 tons per day) and sulfur dioxide (40,000 tons per day). In addition to
emissions, the regional climate impact from smoke caused the surrounding areas to cool
(between 10 and 20 C) and damage to the land allowed the wind to blow away eroded
soil.

 The rainy season begins in October and goes through May


 Kuwait receives virtually no rain between June and September
 High-speed northeastern winds dominate in May and June

The rainy season in Kuwait begins in October and lasts till May. Virtually no rain is

25
received between June and September. During the last two decades, Kuwait has been
experiencing a sharp drop in rainfall during the last two decades. The long-term average
rainfall in Kuwait is of the order of 125 mm. However, the distribution has shown erratic
patterns during the recent years. Conventionally, Kuwait gets rain during late fall or early
winter. But since the 80’s, it has been experiencing some rain in November and then a
spell of dryness followed by some showers in late March. The spatial and temporal
distribution of rainfall in Kuwait has thus shown a marked change with the present
rainfall patterns being characterized by sudden spells and long periods of dryness.
Globally, sea levels could rise by up to 59 cm within the next century. In the UAE,
studies show that a rise in sea level by 1 meter would affect 1,155 square kilometer of
land. Even if the actual rise is lower than these estimates, it would still result in disastrous
impacts on infrastructure, marine life and wildlife, health and, of course, businesses and
economy. Clearly, no business can survive without energy and water. But genuine efforts
must be made to use less, and make that effort a priority.

Kuwait experienced floods in 1993 and 1997. In 2011, the weather conditions in Kuwait
reached tornado levels with wind speeds exceeding 160 km/h and touching 180 km/h.
These changes are indications of change in climate in Kuwait. Moreover, dust storms
have shown a marked increase in the state. The conditions of drought created in the
neighboring regions due to climate change are creating dry beds, which become the
source of dust storms blowing into Kuwait. Specifically the region between Syria, Jordan
and Iraq known as the dust triangle is considered responsible for most of the dust storms
in Kuwait. Despite the harsh environment, Kuwait supports more than 2 million people.
With 10% of the world oil reserves aggregating to 99 billion barrels, Kuwait has a vibrant
economy. Major industries including refining, marketing, and distribution revolve around
oil economy of Kuwait. The poor and dry soil means less than 1 percent can be used for
farmland. Kuwait is one of at least 11 countries consuming more than 100 percent of
their renewable water resources, though the water is reportedly free of water-borne
pathogens. Limited fresh water means desalination plants are needed to supply fresh
water. These plants require energy to heat the salt water to boiling and energy to provide

26
cooling to condense the steam into fresh water droplets. Kuwait contributes to large scale
carbon dioxide emissions mainly because oil exploration, production and refining are
energy intensive process.

Several countries in the middle-east region have already taken steps towards combating
adverse impacts of climate change. For example, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has
taken major steps towards sustainability through raising awareness, forming partnerships
with innovators and sharing information. The government of KSA is also introducing
initiatives such as Estidama Pearl Rating System and developing new ideas like high
efficiency district cooling systems, solar and wind parks for energy generation, rooftop
solar systems, standards for efficient air conditioners and lighting, solar powered
desalinisation plants and increasing public transportation.

The UAE is the fifth highest consumer of energy per capita in the world. The UAE is
now putting more effort into reducing its footprint. In February, Abu Dhabi announced
Masdar, which is being labelled as the world's greenest city. Once ready it will be a
carbon neutral place to live where cars will not be allowed. Additionally, new laws are in
discussion in Dubai to improve the environmental standards of buildings in the emirate.
This would look at reducing water usage and improving power consumption required for
cooling properties in the hot summers.

The State of Kuwait ratified the UNFCCC on 28 March 1995 and ratified the Kyoto
Protocol on 11 March 2005. As a participant in the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, Kuwait is responsible for providing national
communication, including assessment of potential impacts of climate change. To meet
this challenge, the Environment Public Authority (EPA), with an administrator appointed
by the Council of Ministers, oversees environmental testing and education for voluntary
programs. In addition, the EPA acts in a resource capacity. It advises federal and
governmental policy makers on developing regulations and has authority to enforce the
regulations provided within Kuwait’s environmental laws through monitoring and
27
compliance enforcement.

Figure 3.1 Location, stream network and DEM of Satluj River Basin

3.2 Data Used


The observed daily minimum and maximum temperature data were available from 8

climate stations, whereas the daily rainfall data from 10 climate stations in the basin.

Both the data have been obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), and

Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB), India. The observed streamflow data at five

gauge stations were obtained from the Central Water Commission (CWC), Government

of India. All data are available for the Indian part of the Satluj basin.

3.3 Global Climate Models


Global circulation models (GCMs) are the most sophisticated process based models that

are used to simulate and quantify the climate response to present and future

anthropogenic activities. GCMs use a three dimensional grid overlaying the surface of the

earth with grid points 300-500 kilometers per side, within which cells are stacked 20

layers deep. (Hadley Centre 1999). Within each grid point, simulations of key climatic

components, including temperature, precipitation, wind, air pressure, temperature,

humidity and ice-coverage, and land surface processes are carried out. To validate GCM

simulations, they are run for extended time periods, typically many decades, under

present conditions without any change in external climate forcing. The simulated output

is compared with the observed data to assess the quality of the model. Once the quality of

28
the model is established, two different methods are used to make projections of future

climate change. In the first method, known as the equilibrium method, a climate change

scenario corresponding to, for example, doubling of carbon dioxide concentration is

considered and the model is run again to achieve an equilibrium state. The projected

climate change corresponding to the emission scenario considered is obtained by

computing the difference between the climate statistics of the two simulations. The

second method, known as transient method, involves forcing the model with a

greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario. The difference between such a simulation and the

baseline simulation provides an estimate of the climate change. The transient method

requires a time-dependent profile of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations that are

derived from emission scenarios developed, among others by the IPCC. The most recent

IPCC emission scenarios are described in the IPCC special report on Emission Scenarios

(Nakicenovic et al. 2000). Major factors affecting the emission scenarios include growth

of world population, energy intensity and efficiency, and rate of economic growth.

Different assumptions regarding these factors lead to different emission scenarios.

Empirical climate models make use of historical observations to identify trends in

important climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall and changes in important

weather patterns such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Empirical

models can be applied for estimating climate change impacts using two different

approaches. In the first approach, models can be built using observed data and the

impacts estimated using GCM projections as input to the model. The accuracy of GCMs

is, however, questionable due to their relatively large spatial resolution, which is of the

29
order of 2°×2.5° (latitude × longitude). The second approach involves relating regional-

scale variables to global scale atmospheric fields using empirical downscaling models

(Landman et al., 2001). Multiple linear regression (Klein, 1983), canonical correlation

analysis (Landman et al., 2001), nearest neighbour (Sharif and Burn, 2007) and artificial

neural network models (Crane and Hewitson, 1998; Cannon and Whitfield, 2002) are

some of the models that have been used in empirical downscaling studies. These models

can account for variability in the surface variables to an acceptable level but extrapolation

beyond the historical conditions may be unreliable. The ability of the downscaling

models to predict climate change impacts is greatly reduced due to the coarse spatial

resolution of GCMs. Such a resolution is unsatisfactory for catchment level hydrologic

processes and gives rise to uncertainties when downscaling is carried out using the GCM

outputs. Regional Climate models (RCMs) can overcome the spatial resolution problem

associated with the GCMs.

3.4 Regional Climate Models


RCMs are characterized by higher resolution than the GCMs and are developed for

limited areas. A regional climate model is a comprehensive physical high resolution

(~50km) climate model covering a limited area of the globe. The local climate is greatly

impacted by local topographical features such as mountains. GCMs are unable to

represent these features adequately, whereas RCMs can incorporate topographical

features to a large extent. An important advantage of RCMs is that they account for local

conditions, which may include changes in land-surface vegetation or atmospheric

chemistry in physically consistent ways.The climate information provided by RCMs

30
generally includes useful local details, especially in regions with very heterogeneous

terrain. However, RCMs still contain the uncertainties inherent in GCMs because they are

constrained by boundary conditions of GCMs in which they are nested. RCMs require

considerable computing resources as they require initial conditions, time dependent

lateral meteorological conditions and surface boundary conditions to drive the models.

The driving data is obtained from GCMs (or analyses of observations) and can include

GHG and aerosol forcing (IPCC, 2001). They can provide high resolution (up to 10 to 20

km or less) and multi-decadal simulations and are capable of describing climate feedback

mechanisms acting at the regional scale.

RCMs can be effectively utilized for generating different climate change scenarios. A

common method is to compute annual or seasonal change fields for precipitation and

temperature, and then use these to modify the observed time series of precipitation and

temperature. Hypothetical scenarios using personal estimates or historical measurements

of change, instead of GCM or RCM results, can also be generated using this procedure. A

major disadvantage of this approach is that it accounts for the change in the mean of the

meteorological time series but does not account for the change in the variance. Changes

in variability are important in determining the frequency of extreme climate events (Katz

and Brown, 1992). Precipitation and temperature change fields imposed on the historical

time series is one of the approaches used by the IPCC for impact assessment (IPCC,

2001). Other methods of creating climate change scenarios include downscaling GCM

outputs using techniques as regression, weather pattern-based approaches (e.g., Wilby,

1995) and stochastic weather generators (Sharif and Burn 2006, Sharif and Burn 2007).

31
An important RCM that has been successfully utilized in the simulation of climate data is

PRECIS (Jones et al. 2004). It is a regional climate modeling system based on the third

generation of the Hadley Centre’s regional climate model (HadRM3). PRECIS has a

user-friendly data processing and a visualization interface. Due to its flexible design and

versatility, it has been applied to simulate climate data in several regions of the world.

Like any other regional climate model, PRECIS is driven by boundary conditions

simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). The dynamical flow, the atmospheric

sulphur cycle, clouds and precipitation, radiative processes, the land surface and the deep

soil are all formulated, while the boundary conditions at the limits of the model’s domain

are required to be specified in PRECIS. The model is forced at its lateral boundaries by

the simulations of a high-resolution GCM, namely HadAM3H) having a horizontal

resolution of 150 km × 150 km. HadAM3H is an atmosphere-only GCM which has been

derived from the atmospheric component of HadCM3, the Hadley Centre’s state-of-the-

art coupled model which has a horizontal resolution of 3.75° longitude by 2.5° latitude

(Gordon et al. 2000).

PRECIS has been configured for a domain extending from about 1.5°N to 38°N and 56°E

to 103°E. Ensembles of three baseline simulations for the period 1961–1990, three

simulations for the A2 future scenario (2071–2100) and one simulation for the B2 future

scenario (2071– 2100) have been run with HadAM3H and assessed (Hudson and Jones

2002). In the choice of an RCM domain, it is desirable to select a domain that is both

large enough so that the regional model can develop its own internal regional-scale

circulations, but not too large that the climate of the RCM deviates significantly from the

32
GCM in the centre of the domain. The horizontal resolution of the driving GCM

(HadAM3H) is 1.24° latitude × 1.88° longitude, whereas it is 0.44° × 0.44° in the

PRECIS. Simulations from a seventeen-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE)

produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions

(QUMP) project of the Met Office Hadley Centre have been used as Lower Boundary

Conditions (LBCs) for 138 year simulations of PRECIS. The QUMP simulations

comprise 17 versions of the fully coupled version of HadCM3, one with the standard

parameter setting and 16 versions in which 29 of the atmosphere component parameters

are simultaneously perturbed (Collins et al. 2006). Simulations using PRECIS have been

performed for the Indian domain by the IITM, Pune to generate the climate for present

(1961–1990) and two future periods, namely midcentury (2021 to 2050) and endcentury

(2071–2098) for A1B scenario.The PRECIS was demonstrated to provide a realistic

representation of the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon, responding

to both the global forcing via the lateral boundary conditions and independent internal

dynamics (Bhaskaran et al. 1998).

3.5 Climatic Scenarios

A climate scenario is a plausible representation of future climate conditions (temperature,


precipitation and other climatological phenomena) that has been constructed for explicit
use in investigating the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change (IPCC, 2001).
Climate scenario represents future concentrations of greenhouse gases and other
pollutants in the atmosphere based upon factors such as demographic development,
socio-economic development, and technological change (IPCC, 2000). A scenario is an
alternative images of how the future might unfold. The possibility that any single

33
emissions path will occur in the future is highly uncertain.Such scenarios are developed
to give coherent, internally consistent and plausible descriptions of the future state of the
world (IPCC, 1999). Use of climate scenario is often made in climate change analysis,
including climate modeling and the assessment of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation.
However, there are a few problems associated with use of scenarios in impact
assessment. For example, there are many climate modelling teams around the world. If
they all used different metrics, made different assumptions about baselines and starting
points, then it would be very difficult to compare one study to another. In the same way,
models could not be validated against other different, independent models, and
communication between climate modelling groups would be made more complex and
time-consuming. Another problem is the cost of running models. The powerful
computers required are in short supply and great demand. Simulation programming that
had to start from scratch for each experiment would be wholly impractical. Scenarios
provide a framework by which the process of building experiments can be streamlined.

To address these issues, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)


published the first set of climate change scenarios in 1992, called IS92. In year 2000 the
IPCC released a second generation of projections, collectively referred to as the Special
Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). These were used in two subsequent reports; the
Third Assessment Report (TAR) and Assessment Report Four (AR4) and have provided
common reference points for a great deal of climate science research in the last decade.
The SRES team defined four narrative storylines labelled A1, A2, B1 and B2, describing
the relationships between the forces driving greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and
their evolution during the 21st century for large world regions and globally. Each
storyline represents different demographic, social, economic, technological, and
environmental developments that diverge in increasingly irreversible ways. The set of
scenarios consists of six scenario groups drawn from the four families: one group each in
A2, B1, B2, and three groups within the A1 family, characterizing alternative
developments of energy technologies: A1FI (fossil fuel intensive), A1B (balanced), and
A1T (predominantly non-fossil fuel).

34
Each storyline assumes a distinctly different direction for future developments, such that
the four storylines differ in increasingly irreversible ways. Together they describe
divergent futures that encompass a significant portion of the underlying uncertainties in
the main driving forces. The four storylines combine two sets of divergent tendencies:
one set varying between strong economic values and strong environmental values, the
other set between increasing globalization and increasing regionalization. The storylines
are summarized as follows (Nakicenovic et al., 2000):

 The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid

economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines

thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.

Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and

increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional

differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three

groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy

system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis:

fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all

sources (A1B) .

 The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The

underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility

patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously

increasing global population. Economic development is primarily regionally

oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more

fragmented and slower than in other storylines.

35
 The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same

global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1

storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and

information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction

of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions

to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity,

but without additional climate initiatives.

 The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is

on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a

world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2,

intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse

technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also

oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local

and regional levels.

3.6 RCPs

In 2007, the IPCC responded to calls for improvements to SRES by catalysing the
process that produced the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The RCPs are
the latest iteration of the scenario process, and are used in the IPCC report - Assessment
Report Five (AR5) in preference to SRES. The fifth assesment report (AR5) of IPCC
describes the scenarios as follows:

“In climate change research, scenarios describe plausible trajectories of different aspects
of the future that are constructed to investigate the potential consequences of

36
anthropogenic climate change. Scenarios represent many of the major driving forces -
including processes, impacts (physical, ecological, and socioeconomic), and potential
responses that are important for informing climate change policy. They are used to hand
off information from one area of research to another (e.g., from research on energy
systems and greenhouse gas emissions to climate modeling). They are also used to
explore the implications of climate change for decision making (e.g., exploring whether
plans to develop water management infrastructure are robust to a range of uncertain
future climate conditions). The goal of working with scenarios is not to predict the future
but to better understand uncertainties and alternative futures, in order to consider how
robust different decisions or options may be under a wide range of possible futures”.
(Source: IPCC Scenario Process for AR5)

Figure 3.2 A screen shot of the RCP on-line database showing RPC6.0 spatial data for
industry emissions for the year 2020.

A RCP scenario basically consists of numbers - in a format similar to that of a


spreadsheet. For each category of emissions, an RCP contains a set of starting values and
the estimated emissions up to 2100, based on assumptions about economic activity,

37
energy sources, population growth and other socio-economic factors. (The data also
contain historic, real-world information). While socio-economic projections were drawn
from the literature in order to develop the emission pathways, the database does not
include socio-economic data. High-resolution data is generated for a world divided into
‘cells’ measuring half a degree of latitude and longitude - 518,400 cells in total. The RCP
database web interface provides only a preview of the data, which can comprise far more
detail than a graphic can show. It is, however, a starting point for researchers, who can
evaluate the data graphically before downloading it. (As an alternative, the Compare
option allows researchers to plot a graph of trajectories for all four RCPs, namely
RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP8.5. For example, Figure 3.3 and Figure 3.4 show
graphic representations of RCP6 spatial COe emissions for the years 2010 and 2100,
respectively.

Figure 3.3 RCP on-line database graphic showing RCP6 spatial data for industry COe emissions
for the year 2010

38
Figure 3.4 RCP on-line database graphic showing the projected RCP6 emissions in the year
2100.

By using the all the data available for the intervening years, a trajectory can be given for
any specific emissions. Each RCP plots a different emissions trajectory (pathway) and
cumulative emission concentration in 2100. The deliverable is a download from a central
repository. The database is also open to the public and can be accessed from the
following website.

http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome

Scientists can preview and download data on emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing
and land use, in regional and gridded form, following different trajectories over similar

39
timescales. These data sets can then be incorporated into any modelling exercise,
providing consistent parameters for each emissions trajectory, and a consistent
foundation for all climate modelling teams anywhere in the world.

Four design criteria were agreed for the RCPs, as described in Moss et.al. 2008 and Van
Vuuren 2011:

1. The RCPs should be based on scenarios published in the existing literature, developed
independently by different modeling groups and, as a set, be ‘representative’ of the total
literature, in terms of emissions and concentrations (see further in this section); At the
same time, each of the RCPs should provide a plausible and internally consistent
description of the future;

2. The RCPs should provide information on all components of radiative forcing that are
needed as input for climate modeling and atmospheric chemistry modeling (emissions of
greenhouse gases, air pollutants and land use). Moreover, they should make such
information available in a geographically explicit way;

3. The RCPs should have harmonized base year assumptions for emissions and land use
and allow for a smooth transition between analyses of historical and future periods;

4. The RCPs should cover the time period up to 2100, but information also needs to be
made available for the centuries thereafter.

40
4. TREND ANALYSIS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
DATA

4.1 General
The last century has been a period of rapid climate change, mainly in response to human

influences. Social, economic, industrial, and land use developments all contribute to

human impact on our climate, locally, nationally and globally. The changes already

observed have had, and continue to have, impacts on many aspects of society, including

health, agriculture, water resources and energy demand. In order to plan for adaptation to

climate change there is a need to know the degree of change already experienced in a

region over a period of time. Areliable data set is an important prerequisite to quantify

and understand changes in climatic variables over a given time period in a region.

Identification of long-term trends in climatic variables allows decision-makers and water

resource managers to better anticipate and plan for the potential impacts of climate

variability and change. Analysis for trends in hydro-meteorological variables provides a

valuable indicator to the impacts of climate change, particularly on a regional scale.

4.2 Time Series Analysis


A time series is a sequence of measurements in chronological order. Time series analysis

is a major tool in hydrology; it is used for building mathematical models to generate

synthetic hydrologic record to forecast hydrologic events, detect trends and shifts in

hydrologic records and to fill-in missing data and extend records. Unlike the analyses of

random samples of observations that are discussed in the context of most other statistics,

41
the analysis of time series is based on the assumption that successive values in the data

series represent consecutive measurements taken at equally spaced time intervals. In time

series analysis, it is assumed that the data consists of a systematic pattern (usually a set of

identifiable components) and random noise (error) which usually makes the pattern

difficult to identify. There are two main goals of time series analysis: (i) identifying the

nature of the phenomenon represented by the sequence of observations, and (ii)

forecasting future values of the time series variable. Both of these goals require that the

pattern of observed time series data is identified and more or less formally described.

Once the pattern is established, extrapolation can be used to predict future events.

In hydro-climatological studies,analysis of meteorological as well as hydrological data is

required to be carried out. In general, hydrologic processes such as precipitation and

runoff evolve on a continuous time scale.A plot of flow hydrograph versus time

constitutes a streamflow time series in a continuous time. However, most hydrologic

process of practical interest are defined in a distance time scale. A distance-time series

may be derived by sampling the continuous process at discrete points in time, or by

integrating the continuous time series over successive time intervals. For example, a daily

stream-flow may be derived by sampling the flow of the stream once daily or by

integrating the continuous flow hydrograph on a daily basis. Most hydrologic series are

defined on hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, bimonthly, and annual time intervals.

4.3 Mann-Kendall Nonparametric Test


The analysis of trends can be carried out either using the parametric or the nonparametric

42
test. Parametric tests are more powerful than the non-parametric ones, but the application

of parametric tests requires that the data must be normally distributed.When the data are

not normally distributed, nonparametric tests are considered more robust compared to

their parametric counterparts. The most widely used nonparametric test for the

investigation of trends is the Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975). A major

advantage of the Mann-Kendall test is that it allows missing data and can tolerate

outliers. Several researchers have employed Mann-Kendall test to identify trends in the

hydrometeorological variables due to climate change (Singh et al., 2008; Burn et al.,

2010). The Mann Kendall test is a ranked based approach that consists of comparing each

value of the time series with the remaining in a sequential order. The statistic S is the sum

of all the counting as given in Equation 4.1.

S= Sgn(x − x ) Eq. 4.1

Where

1 if ( x − x ) > 0
Sgn x − x = 0 if ( x − x ) = 0 Eq. 4.2
−1 if ( x − x ) < 0

and xj and xk are the sequential data values, n is the length of the data set. A positive

value of S indicates an upward and a negative value indicates a downward trend. For

43
samples greater than 10, the test is conducted using normal distribution with the mean

and variance as follows.

E S =0 Eq. 4.3

1
Var(S) = n(n − 1)(2n + 5) − t t − 1 (2t + 5) Eq. 4.4
18

where, tp is the number of data points in the pth tied group and q is the number of tied

groups in the data set. The standardized test statistic (Zmk ) is calculated by:

S−1
if S > 0
Var(S)
Z = S+1 Eq. 4.5
if S < 0
Var(S)
0 if S = 0

where the value of Zmk is the Mann- Kendall test statistics that follows standard normal

distribution with mean of zero and variance of one.

Trend evaluation using Mann-Kendall test relies on two important statistical metrics - the

trend significance level or the p-value, and the trend slope β. The p-value is an indicator

of the trend significance – the lower the p-value the stronger is the trend. The metric β

provides the rate of change in the variable allowing determination of the total change

during the analysis period. Using Sen’s slope method (Sen, 1968), the value of β can be

44
estimated. The method involves computing slopes for all the pairs of ordinal time points

and then using the median of these slopes as an estimate of the overall slope. The Sen’s

slope method is insensitive to outliers and can be effectively used to quantify a trend in

the data. The presence of a positive serial correlation in a data set can increase the

expected number of false positive outcomes for the Mann–Kendall test. A version of the

Mann-Kendall test that incorporates the correction for serial correlation (Yue et al., 2002)

has been used in this research.

4.4 Datasets Used

The datasets used in this study have been obtained from the website of the climatic
research unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia The CRUTS3.0 data used in this
study comprise of monthly average maximum temperature and precipitation data on 0.5 x
0.5 grids available from 1901-2013. Using the gridded data sets produced by the CRU,
the analysis of trends projected by the CRU has been carried out. The montly data used in
the study has been presented in Appendix A of the present thesis.

Table 4.1 Availability of meteorological data at Satluj river basin

Latitude Longitude Masl Data Availability


S. No. Station (m) Temperatur Streamflow
Degree Minute Second Degree Minute Second Rainfall
1966-2010 e
1974- 2010 1963-2010
1 Bhakra 31 24 56 76 26 5 554
2 Kalpa 31 31 60 78 15 0 2662 1984-2010 1984- 2010 -
3 Kasol 31 30 0 77 19 0 2614 1962-2010 1964- 2008 1964-2010
4 Kaza 32 13 25 78 4 11 3618 1984-2010 1984- 2010 -
5 Namgia 31 48 0 78 39 0 2910 1984-2010 1985- 2010 -
6 Raksham 31 17 0 78 32 0 3130 1985-2010 1985- 2010 -
7 Rampur 31 26 24 77 37 40 987 1962-2010 1972- 2010 1963-2010
8 Suni 31 14 43 77 6 53 701 1961-2010 1970- 2008 1963-2010
9 Kahu 31 12 43 76 46 52 526 1966-2010 - 1962-2010
10 Berthin 31 25 11 76 38 55 668 1962-2010 - -

45
4.5 Trend Analysis of Temperature Data
Analysis of temperature trends can provide critical evidence for evaluating impacts of

anthropogenic climate change. The focus in this section is on the analysis of time series

of surface air temperature, and various temperature indices for several stations in the

basin. Daily minimum temperature (TMN) and maximum temperature (TMX) data were

available from 8 climate stations in the basin. Figure 4.1and Figure 4.2show the average

monthly TMX and TMN, respectively at 8 stations in Satluj River Basin. The spatial

distribution of the total average maximum and minimum temperature for the period

(1985-2010) are shown in Figure 4.3 and Figure 4.4.

Bhakra Kalpa
0 10 20 30 40

25
Temperature (C°)

15
0 5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Kasol Kaza
25
0 10 20 30 40
Temperature (C°)

15
5
-5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Namgia Raksham
5 10 15 20
Temperature (C°)

25
15
0 5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rampur Suni
0 10 20 30 40

0 10 20 30 40
Temperature (C°)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 4.1 Average monthly TMX at 8 stations in Satluj River Basin

46
Bhakra Kalpa

10 15
25
Temperature (C°)

15

5
0
0 5

-5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Kasol Kaza
25
Temperature (C°)

10
15

0
-20 -10
0 5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Namgia Raksham

15
Temperature (C°)

15

0 5
-5 0 5

-10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rampur Suni
25

25
Temperature (C°)

15

15
0 5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 4.2Average monthly TMN at 8 stations in Satluj River Basin

Figure 4.3The spatial distribution of average TMX (°C) at Satluj Basin(1985-2010)

47
Figure 4.4 The spatial distribution of average TMN (°C) at Satluj Basin (1985-2010)

The analysis of trends has been carried out for a total number of 17 variables grouped in

three sets (Table 4.2). Set A comprises variables based on annual values, whereas set B

comprises variables based on seasonal values. Set C comprises variables describing the

percentage of days when TMX and TMN are less than a predefined percentile (e.g, 10 th

and 90th percentile).

Table 4.2 List of variables


Description
Set A
TMX Annual average maximum temperature
TMN Annual average minimum temperature
DTR Annual average diurnal temperature range
WITMX Maximum temperature averaged over winter
SPTMX Maximum temperature averaged over spring
SUTMX Maximum temperature averaged over summer
AUTMX Maximum temperature averaged over autumn
WITMN Minimum temperature averaged over winter
SPTMN Minimum temperature averaged over spring

48
SUTMN Minimum temperature averaged over summer
AUTMN Minimum temperature averaged over autumn
Set B
LTMX Annual largest maximum temperature
LTMN Annual largest minimum temperature
Set C
TMX10 percentage of days when TMX < 10th percentile
TMX90 percentage of days when TMX > 90th percentile
TMX10 percentage of days when TMN < 10th percentile
TMX90 percentage of days when TMN > 90th percentile

The available daily surface air temperature data were used to derive the mean monthly

data. The mean seasonal and annual series of all the variables for each station were then

derived using the mean monthly data. The annual values of TMX in set A have been

computed through averaging the mean monthly values of maximum temperature. The

annual values of TMN have been computed by averaging the minimum temperature

values over each year of the available data. The daily DTR has been computed by taking

the difference between the daily TMX and TMN values. Using the daily DTR values, the

annual values of DTR have been computed. The annual series of variables in set B

(LTMX and LTMN) have been computed by extracting the largest and the smallest

values of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature respectively for each year of

the analysis period.

In most land regions the frequency of warm days and warm nights will likely increase in

the next decades, while that on cold days and cold nights will decrease (Kirtman et al.

2013). To investigate the trends in the frequency of warm days, warm nights, cold days,

and cold nights in the Satluj River Basin, four temperature indices have been computed

using the daily temperature data for each of the eight stations. A description of the

49
temperature indices is provided in Table 4.2. TMN10 represents the percentage of days in

a year when the TMN was less than the 10th percentile and is, therefore, an indicator of

cold nights. TMX10 represents the percentage of days when TMX was less than the 10th

percentile, and is, therefore, an indicator of cold days. Likewise, the variables TMN90

and TMX90 corresponds to the 90th percentile and were similarly defined, and are

indicators of warm nights and warm days respectively. To compute the annual series of

variables in set C, the following procedure was adopted. For each year of the analysis

period, the 10th and 90th percentiles of TMN were computed using 365 daily TMN

values. Each of these 365 daily values was then compared with the 10th percentile value

to determine the percentage of days when the daily TMN was less than the 10th

percentile. Using this procedure, an annual time series of TMN10 was obtained. A similar

procedure was adopted for TMN90. The procedure was repeated for TMX to obtain

annual series of TMX10 and TMX90.

The analysis of trends for the three sets of variables described in Table 4.2 has been

carried out using Mann-Kendall nonparametric test (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975). The

statistical significance of trends is indicated by the p-value, and the magnitude and the

direction of the trend has been computed using the Sen’s slope method. A value of 0.05

was chosen as a significance level for a two-sided test. Based upon this significance level,

Zmk values greater than 1.96 or smaller than 1.96, respectively, indicate a significant

positive or negative trend. A p-value of less than 0.05 indicates that the trend is

statistically significant at 5% significance level. The bold values in the following tables

indicate trends that are statistically significant at 5% significance level.

50
4.5.1 Trends in Average Temperature

A summary of trends in mean annual TMX, TMN, LTMX, LTMN, and DTR is presented

in Table 4.3, where the bold values indicate statistically significant trends.

Table 4.3 Trends in average annual temperature


TMX TMN LTMX LTMN DTR
Station Slope p Slope p Slope p Slope p Slope p
Bhakra 0.021 0.289 -0.022 0.024 0.036 0.089 -0.091 0.001 0.042 0.102
Kalpa 0.040 0.073 0.032 0.070 0.000 0.866 0.000 0.521 0.015 0.307
Kasol -0.008 0.632 -0.018 0.002 0.000 0.512 -0.012 0.163 0.011 0.244
Kaza 0.091 0.067 0.096 0.027 0.042 0.187 0.056 0.661 0.017 0.739
Namgia 0.068 0.008 0.040 0.123 0.000 0.461 0.000 0.422 0.027 0.053
Raksham 0.059 0.026 0.077 0.001 0.000 0.964 0.000 0.799 -0.010 0.523
Rampur 0.013 0.446 0.011 0.105 0.061 0.019 0.000 0.951 0.008 0.620
Suni -0.003 0.828 -0.041 0.003 0.085 0.009 0.000 0.412 0.034 0.124
No. + 6 5 8 6 7
No. - 2 3 0 2 1
No.Sig+ 2 2 2 0 0
No.Sig - 0 3 0 1 0
Notes:1. Bold values indicate statistically significant trends at 5% significance level
2. Slope is in C/year

51
Figure 4.5Direction of trends in annual TMX and TMN

The spatial distribution of trends in TMX and TMN is shown in Figure 4.5. Results

presented in Table 4.3 clearly indicate that the positive trends outnumber the negative

trends for all the variables. Of eight stations, six showed increasing trends in TMX with

two exhibiting statistically significant trends. None of the stations showed statistically

significant decreasing trends in TMX.

52
Mean annual TMN has shown a greater number of increasing trends than decreasing

trends. Increasing trends were observed at five stations with two stations showing

statistically significant trends. Bhakra showed an increasing trend in TMX (p=0.024) but

it is not statistically significant (p=0.289). A statistically significant decreasing trend in

TMN was, however, observed at Bhakra. In addition to Bhakra, Kasol (p=0.002) and

Suni (p=0.003) exhibited strongly decreasing trends in TMN. The trends in the time

series of LTMX and LTMN were also investigated. For LTMX, all eight stations

exhibited an increasing trend out of which two (Rampur and Suni) were statistically

significant. The variable LTMN exhibited an increasing trend at six stations, but none of

these were statistically significant. The decreasing trends in LTMN were observed at two

stations, of which one was statistically significant (Bhakra, p=0. 001). The variable DTR

showed an increasing trend at seven of the eight stations; none of the stations exhibited a

statistically significant trend. The widening of DTR was expected due to an increasing

trend in TMX and a decreasing trend in TMN observed at some stations.

4.5.2 Seasonal Trends in TMX

Seasonal analysis of temperature data was carried out for the four seasons: winter

(December-February), spring (March-May), summer (June-August), and autumn

(September-November). The results of trend analysis of seasonal TMX are presented in

Table 4.4, and the spatial distribution of the trend of the seasonal TMX for all stations are

shown in Error! Reference source not found.. The trends in TMX for the winter season

are predominantly increasing with six out of eight stations showing increasing trends with

those at Kalpa and Namgia, being statistically significant. For the spring season,

53
significantly increasing trend in TMX was found at four stations (Table 4.4; Error!

Reference source not found.).

None of the stations exhibited a statistically significant decreasing trend. For the summer

season, increasing trend was found at six stations, and decreasing trend at two stations.

None of the stations exhibited a statistically significant trend in the summer season. The

autumn season, however, exhibited a greater number of decreasing trends than increasing

trends, but an equal number of statistically significant decreasing and increasing trend

(one each).

Table 4.4 Trends in seasonal maximum temperature

Winter Spring Summer Autumn


Station Slope P Slope P Slope p Slope p
Bhakra 0.012 0.666 0.066 0.028 0.030 0.327 -0.010 0.685
Kalpa 0.113 0.012 0.101 0.035 -0.032 0.066 0.011 0.707
Kasol -0.024 0.153 0.030 0.180 0.006 0.487 -0.030 0.050
Kaza 0.026 0.835 0.220 0.169 0.014 0.754 0.048 0.617
Namgia 0.127 0.045 0.184 0.006 0.018 0.350 -0.002 1.000
Raksham 0.061 0.152 0.139 0.009 -0.007 0.643 0.057 0.050
Rampur 0.028 0.143 0.051 0.066 0.019 0.384 -0.030 0.217
Suni -0.023 0.276 -0.006 0.681 0.051 0.093 -0.029 0.204
No. + 6 7 6 3
No. - 2 1 2 5
No.Sig+ 2 4 0 1
No.Sig - 0 0 0 1
Notes: 1. Bold values indicate statistically significant trends at 5% significance level
2. Slope is in C/year

4.5.3 Seasonal Trends in TMN

Seasonal trends in TMN are shown in Table 4.5 and Figure 4.6 shows the spatial

54
distribution of the trend of the seasonal minimum temperature for all stations. For the

winter season, three statistically significant decreasing trends for TMN were found,

although no significant decreasing trends were found for TMX. For the spring season,

three stations exhibited statistically significant increasing trend, whereas one exhibited

statistically significant decreasing trend. There were an equal number of stations

exhibiting increasing and decreasing trends for the summer season. However, the number

of stations exhibiting statistically significant decreasing trend is more than the number of

stations with an increasing trend. For the autumn season, although there were five

stations with increasing trends, but none with a statistically significant trend. Out of three

decreasing trends, only one (Bhakra) was statistically significant.

Table 4.5 Trends in seasonal minimum temperature

Winter Spring Summer Autumn


Station Slope p Slope P Slope p Slope p
Bhakra -0.033 0.002 0.012 0.685 -0.024 0.015 -0.024 0.024
Kalpa 0.062 0.055 0.062 0.017 -0.012 0.532 0.003 0.770
Kasol -0.031 0.001 -0.008 0.653 -0.012 0.018 -0.013 0.132
Kaza 0.035 0.359 0.185 0.175 0.010 0.934 0.088 0.416
Namgia 0.047 0.272 0.062 0.076 0.046 0.019 0.027 0.224
Raksham 0.153 0.001 0.101 0.004 0.023 0.179 0.032 0.094
Rampur 0.008 0.377 0.022 0.157 0.023 0.075 0.005 0.594
Suni -0.062 0.005 -0.060 0.005 -0.022 0.045 -0.027 0.147
No. + 5 6 4 5
No. - 3 2 4 3
No.Sig+ 1 2 1 0
No.Sig - 3 1 3 1
Notes:1. Bold values indicate statistically significant trends at 5% significance level
2. Slope is in C/year

55
Figure 4.6 Seasonal trends in TMN

4.6 Precipitation Trends


Runoff production in a basin is directly dependent upon precipitation received. The

spatial and temporal availability of water is, therefore, related to the trends in rainfall in

the basin. The precipitation data in the Satluj basin is available from 10 stations. Daily

precipitation records from different stations were summed to provide monthly, seasonal

and annual totals for each station. The barplots of average monthly rainfall at different

stations is shown in Figure 4.7. Monsoonal and annual precipitation at each station were

analyzed using the Mann-Kendall non parametric test. The summaries of trends in

monsoonal and annual rainfall at different stations are shown in Table 4.6.

56
Bhakra Berthin

400

400
Rainfall (mm)

200

200
0

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Kahu Kalpa
Rainfall (mm)

150 300

60
0 20
0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Kaza Kasol

400
Rainfall (mm)

30

200
0 10

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Namgia Raksham
30

20 40 60
Rainfall (mm)

10 20
0

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rampur Suni
150

100 200
Rainfall (mm)

0 50

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 4.7 Barplots of average monthly rainfall at different stations in Satluj Basin

4.6.1 Trends in Annual and Monsoon Rainfall

Trend analysis of rainfall data revealed that the increasing was more pronounced in

monsoon than the annual rainfall as shown in Table 4.6. Half of the stations (5) exhibited

increasing trends, and another half exhibited decreasing trends in annual rainfall in the

basin. However, Raksham was the only station that exhibited a statistically significant

increasing trend. None of the stations exhibited statistically significant decreasing trend.

Six out of ten stations exhibited increasing trend in the monsoon rainfall with three

stations (Kalpa, Raksham and Rampur) exhibiting statistically significant increasing

trends. None of the stations showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in

monsoonal rainfall as well.

Table 4.6 Trends in annual, monsoon and winter precipitation

57
Annual Monsoon Winter
Station Slope p Slope p Slope p
Bhakra -0.814 0.764 1.300 0.824 -0.970 0.209
Berthin -0.835 0.737 -0.333 0.904 -0.052 0.959
Kahu 5.703 0.150 3.170 0.221 0.227 0.769
Kalpa 1.609 0.723 5.700 0.022 0.001 0.221
Kaza -0.625 0.835 -0.950 0.739 0.001 1.000
Kasol -2.600 0.451 -2.224 0.512 -0.388 0.389
Namgia -2.023 0.314 0.532 0.650 0.001 0.620
Raksham 8.900 0.001 7.680 0.001 0.001 0.142
Rampur 3.154 0.321 4.673 0.040 -0.444 0.586
Suni -3.343 0.384 -2.035 0.578 -0.889 0.213
No. + 5 6 5
No. - 5 4 5
No. Sig+ 1 3 0
No. Sig- 0 0 0
Notes: 1. Bold values indicate statistically significant trends at 10% significance level;

4.7 Discussion and Conclusions


The focus of the present chapter was on the analysis of trends in TMX, TMN,

precipitation and hydrological measures of extreme flows. Long term trends of seasonal

and annual temperatures, both maximum and minimum, were investigated using Mann-

Kendall nonparametric test. Additionally, trends in DTR, LTMX, LTMN, and four

temperature indices have been investigated for eight stations in the Satluj River Basin.

Trend analysis of seasonal temperature data revealed that the warming was more

pronounced in winter and spring seasons than in summer and autumn seasons. The

glacier melt during the spring months may be especially enhanced, but may be less

serious during the summer months. Trends in all four temperature indices considered in

this study were predominantly increasing. For TMX90, there were six increasing trends

whereas TMN90 exhibited four increasing trends. At four stations, TMN90 exhibited

increasing trends with very low p-values. The lower the p-values the stronger is the trend,

58
and; therefore, a clear warming trend in night-time temperature represented by TMN90

was found from the analysis.

A clear warming pattern was observed in the basin with the majority of the stations (six

of eight) exhibiting increasing trends in annual TMX. None of the stations exhibited a

statistically significant decreasing trend in annual TMX. The trends in annual TMN were,

however, mixed with a bias towards increasing trends. However, three stations showed

statistically significant decreasing trends in TMN. The observed cooling trend at these

stations in the basin corresponds with results for minimum temperature reported by

Fowler and Archer (2006) for the upper Indus Basin. The predominantly increasing trend

in diurnal temperature range owing to the asymmetrical trends in TMX and TMN is also

shared with upper Indus stations (Forsythe et al, 2012) and has also been reported in parts

of India (Kumar et al. 1994). This contradicts general global patterns whereby faster

increases in TMX than TMN yield decreasing DTR (Karl et al 1993; Easterling et al.

1997).

Some higher elevation stations (for example, Raksham, Kaza, and Namgia) showed clear

warming trends both in TMX and TMN. Similar findings have been reported in some

studies on the Himalayas in Xizang province of China, which found higher warming rates

at higher altitudes (e.g. Liu et al., 2009; Liu and Chen, 2000; Qin et al., 2009; Thompson

et al., 2003; Yang et al., 2011). Increased warming in the higher elevation stations is

likely to result in increased melting of glaciers and snowfields. This could have a serious

impact on water availability in the basin as higher volume of water would be available

59
downstream during the first half of this century, but acute shortages may occur in water

availability during the second half of the current century with diminished glacier and

snowfield extent. The underlying assumption for this plausible scenario is that the current

temperature trends will continue in the future.

An increasing pattern was observed in the annual, monsoonal and winter precipitation

data in the basin. However, only a few stations exhibited statistically significant

increasing trends. More importantly, none of the stations exhibited statistically significant

decreasing trends in annual or monsoonal precipitation. Analysis of trends indicated that

precipitation characteristics of the basin are undergoing a significant change in the basin.

Although the temperature trend points towards a clear warming trend in the basin, but the

precipitation trends are unclear. The findings of the present research are in line with the

study conducted by Khattak et al. (2011) who found inconsistent trends in precipitation in

the Upper Indus basin in Pakistan. Several other researchers have concluded that

precipitation processes are highly complex and do not generally exhibit consistent

patterns.

Results of trend analysis of monthly and annual flow as well as annual proportions of

monthly flows at five gauging stations in the basin clearly indicated there were a large

number of statistically significant trends. It is important to note that the monthly

proportions of annual flow have shown a reversal of trends when compared to the

monthly flows at three out of five stations. Analysis of trends in flow and timing

measures has clearly shown that the changes are occurring in the hydrological regime for

60
the sites examined, both in terms of peak magnitudes albeit weak indication, and the

timings of peak events. Changes are occurring in the low flow regime as well with a

strong indication of increase in LFM events at Bhakra. The trends in LFT have been

found to be generally weak at all the sites. The CoV timings exhibited no definite trends

in either direction. Most of the analyses have led to the conclusion that there were a

significant number of significant trends in the variables. It is concluded that given the

potential changes in the flow regime, it is critical to revise reservoir operating policy at

Bhakra to be able to cope with the changing climatic conditions in the basin. The analysis

of streamflow data conducted here has revealed that changes are occurring in the

hydrological regime of the Satluj river basin, part of which may be attributed to warming

in the basin, which is evident from the analysis of temperature trends.The direction of the

trends is, however, inconsistent between the stations, notably between the increasing

trend in annual flow at Bhakra and the decreasing trend upstream.The possible reasons

for this could be a big input from the lower part of the catchment to Bhakra or a poor

quality of the flow data.

61
5. Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over
Kuwait

5.1 Introduction

Temperature is a critical parameter that affects the behavior of the climatic systems (Sang
2012). Any increase in future temperatures in Saudi Arabia will likely stimulate demand
for air conditioning leading to increased peak demand on generation and distribution
systems. This would result in an increase in per unit cost of generation. Saudi Arabia is
particularly vulnerable to enhanced warming mainly due to its limited water resources
and heavy reliance on fossil fuel – a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions – for
electricity generation. Additionally, significant demographic pressures continue to affect
the government’s ability to provide energy and potable water to the people. The situation
is likely to worsen due to adverse impacts of climate change. Therefore, the overarching
aim of the present research is to evaluate projected changes in futures temperature over
Saudi Arabia. The intent is to aid in the formulation of adaptation strategies and
mitigation measures to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the Kingdom. The
analysis of future temperature changes over Saudi Arabia is critical from the viewpoint of
agricultural production as well. Future emissions depend on anthropogenic factors and
are inherently unpredictable. Therefore, changes in temperature over Saudi Arabia have
been evaluated for twelve different combinations of GCMs and emission scenarios.
Climate variables, especially temperature and precipitation, generally vary both spatially
and temporally. To gain an insight in the spatial pattern of expected warming, analysis of
temperature departures at four different locations has been presented in this study. An
ensemble analysis was conducted to quantify the range of plausible future temperature
changes under different emission scenarios. The Climate Wizard toolbox (Girvetz et al.
2009) has been used to conduct different analyses.

62
5.2 Methodology

5.2.1 The Climate Wizard Tool

The Climate Wizard Tool is available at www.climatewizard.org as an interactive


website that produces climate-change maps, graphs, and tables (Girvetz et al. 2009). The
Climate Wizard Tool provides access to climate change information for different
geographical locations around the world. The Tool provides a data analysis framework
that can be effectively used for climate change impact and adaptation planning. It can
also be applied to extract other useful information such as downscaled future projections
of hydrology, soil moisture conditions, vegetation, marine conditions, and agricultural
productivity. The two common approaches for representing climate-change data using
Climate Wizard Tool are: (1) comparing climate data for a given time period to a baseline
period to compute climatic departures or anomalies; and (2) using trend analysis to
compute statistics of interest for a specified time period.

With the Climate Wizard Tool both the observed and future projected climate data can be
analyzed for pre-defined geographical areas. The Climate Wizard can perform custom
analyses after drawing or uploading analysis boundaries. The analysis of observed
(historical) climate data is relatively straight forward whereas future climate projections
of GCMs are more complex to analyze. The complexity stems from the fact that there
are multiple future projections of GCMs to consider rather than one GCM projection. To
take into account the uncertainties associated with GCM outputs, ensemble studies are
often undertaken. The ensemble median provides an efficient means to improve the
reliability of climate simulations obtained through multiple models (Reicher and Kim,
2008). Ensemble studies are often aimed at quantifying the range of plausible future
climates under different combinations of GCMs and emission scenarios. Approaches to
doing ensemble studies range from simple averaging of different projections to more
complex probability estimation procedures (Araújo and New 2007). Also, GCMs
simulate simulate climate at a spatial resolution (e.g., 2.5–3.5 degree grid cells), which is
too coarse for hydrological modelling on a basin scale. A distinct practical advantage of
63
Climate Wizard Tool is that it provides high resolution climate data sets created using
downscaling techniques that utilize information from finer resolution climate data sets of
past observations.

To perform analyses of observed and projected climate data, the Climate Wizard Tool
requires (1) delineated geographic boundaries over which the analyses are to be
conducted; (2) a specified time period over which to conduct a trend analysis or two time
periods to conduct a departure analysis; (3) a list of climate variables of interest (for
example, precipitation, temperature), and (4) a specified time period (s) over which data
are to be analyzed (monthly, seasonal or annual). The historical datasets available
through climatewizard.org are based on the datasets produced by the climatic research
unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. To generate CRU data set for land regions
of the world, monthly temperature, time series from over 4800 stations are used. During
the 1850s the number of available stations was small but has increased to over 4500
stations during the 1951-2010 period. Stations on land are situated at different
elevations, and the measurement techniques followed by different countries vary. To
avoid biases resulting from these problems, monthly mean temperatures are reduced to
anomalies for the period with better coverage, namely 1961-90. Many stations around
the world, however, do not have complete data for the period 1961-1990. Several
methods have been described by Jones et al. (2012) to estimate 1961-1990 averages. The
issue of homogeneity and consistency of measurements through time as well as the
procedures used to remove all non-climatic inconsistencies have been described by
Kennedy et al. (2011) and Jones et al. 2012.

5.3 Methodology

To facilitate assessment of future climate change impacts, large scale climate data are
available for several combinations of global circulation models (GCMs) and emission
scenarios on climatewizard.org. However, the climate data available on
climatewizard.org corresponds to older SRES scenarios, namely A1B, A2, and B1. These

64
scenarios now have been superceded by newer scenarios based on representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) described in the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. The
projections of climate data under RCPs are available for different regions of the world on
Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) 2.0, which can assessed through
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal.

5.3.1 Climate Change Knowledge Portal

The CCKP2.0 provides a comprehensive set of climate-related information, data, and


tools. The portal has been created by the World Bank with the support of the Global
Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and others. The Portal provides an online
tool for access to comprehensive global, regional, and country data related to climate
change and development. The successful integration of scientific information in decision
making often depends on the use of flexible frameworks, data, and tools that can provide
comprehensive information to a wide range of users, allowing them to evaluate how to
apply the scientific information to the design of a project or policy. The CCKP provides a
web-based platform to assist in capacity building and knowledge development. The aim
of the portal is to help provide development practitioners with a resource to explore,
evaluate, synthesize, and learn about climate related vulnerabilities and risks at multiple
levels of details. Using climate science research results to inform the decision making
process concerning policies or specific measures needed to tackle climate impacts, or
even to understand low carbon development processes, is often a difficult, yet crucial,
undertaking.

The CCKP contains environmental, disaster risk, and socio-economic datasets, as well as
synthesis products, such as the Climate Adaptation Country Profiles, which are built and
packaged for specific user-focused functions such as climate change indices for a
particular country. The portal also provides intelligent links to other resources and tools.
The CCKP consists of spatially referenced data visualized on a Google Maps interface.
Users are able to evaluate climate-related vulnerabilities, risks, and actions for a

65
particular location on the globe by interpreting climate and climate-related data at
different levels of details. In the context of the present study, the CCKP provides
temperature and precipitation data for different times scales under all the four RCPs,
namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Data from a total of 16 GCMs is
available at the CCKP. GCMa are sophisticated computer models that can be used to
simulate the climate response to present and future anthropogenic activities. GCMs use a
three dimensional grid overlaying the surface of the earth with grid points 300-500
kilometers per side, within which cells are stacked several layers deep. Within each grid
point, simulations of key climatic components are carried out. The state-of-the art GCMs
can simulate important atmospheric processes and predict future climate under different
emission scenarios (Chu et al, 2010).

To obtain weather data for any time-slice, the coordinates of the point of interest, or the
region as a whole are chosen along with the GCM and the RCP. The climate data at the
CCKP may be obtained for the baseline period (1961-1990) and for four future time time
scales, each corresponding to some future time period. In the present study, outputs from
four different GCMs developed in Canada, Australia, Germany, and the United Kingdom,
respectively have been used. Since the effects of changing emissions on climate are too
complex to understand and model with confidence, climate change projections are
described as scenarios rather than predictions (Mearns et al. 2003). For the present study,
four RCPs - RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 have been chosen, representing
average projections of various future developments. These scenarios cover a wide
spectrum of driving forces from demographic to social and economic developments,
encompassing numerous possibilities of future greenhouse gas emissions. Four future
time scales chosen for the present study are: 2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079, and
2080-2099.

5.4 Temperature Projections

The projections of

66
5.5 Conclusions

67
6. ENERGY-TEMPERATURE MODELING USING R
PACKAGE

Hydrologic models are widely used to simulate and predict behaviour of complex

environmental systems. Hydrological modeling is concerned with accurate simulation of

the partitioning of water among the various pathways of the hydrological cycle (Dooge,

1992). In the most general sense, a model is a simplified representation of a system,

where a system consists of entities and relationships between entities. Wurbs (1998)

highlighted the availability and role of generalized computer-modeling packages and

outlined the institutional setting within which the models are disseminated throughout the

water community.In the context of resource management, the hydrologic model can be

used as a planning tool to guide decision making for management practices of both land

and water resources (Easton et al. 2008; Faramarzi et al. 2009; Yu et al. 2011; Koch et al.

2012). The evaluation of hydrologic model behaviour and performance is commonly

made and reported through comparisons of simulated and observed variables. Frequently,

comparisons are made between simulated and measured streamflow at the catchment

outlet. Hydrological models provide valuable tool for assessing the potential impacts of

changes in land use or climate. Due to the rapid advancement in the computing

technology over the past decade, the computer models have become efficient, both in

terms of execution time and memory requirements. The catchment-level hydrologic

models are often employed to evaluate the response of a basin to a given set of input

parameters. There are two main objectives that are fulfilled by the catchment-level

hydrological models. The first objective of catchment-level hydrological modeling is to

68
gain a better understanding of the hydrologic phenomena operating in a catchment and of

how changes in the catchment may affect these phenomena. Another objective of

catchment-level modeling is the generation of synthetic sequences of hydrologic data for

facility design or for use in forecasting.

69
7. Conclusions and Recommendations
This chapter summarizes the research reported in this thesis, outlining the limitations of

the research and providing recommendations for future research.The present thesis is

organized into 8 chapters. The first chapter provides an overview of the climate change

issues relevant to India. The objectives of the present study are outlined in chapter 1.

Chapter 2 of the thesis presents the literature relevant to the present research. In chapter

3, a detailed description of the study area, namely, the Satluj River basin has been

presented. Chapter 4 describes the application of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test for

the detection of trends in several hydro meteorological variables at a number of stations

in the basin. A detailed analysis and interpretation of the trends is presented in this

chapter. The investigation of linkages of El-Nino Southern Oscillation with monsoonal

precipitation in the basin is presented in chapter 5. Chapter 6 describes the procedure for

hydological modelling using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Application of

the calibrated and validated SWAT model to the simulation of future streamflows in the

basin is described in chapter 7. Following this introduction, section 7.1 presents the

summary of the research carried out in this thesis. The achievements of the research are

presented in 7.2. Section 7.3 describes the limitations and section 7.4 presents a few

pointers towards the future work.

7.1 Summary of the Work Carried Out


The research carried out in this thesis was aimed at evaluating the hydrological impacts

of climate change in Satluj River basin, India. The research presented in this thesis

comprise of three salient parts. The first part of the thesis presents the analysis of trends

70
in hydrometerological variables at several stations in Satluj River basin.Analysis of trend

results clearly revealed a greater number of increasing trends in most of the variables

investigated than could be expected to occur by chance. A clear warming pattern was

observed in the basin with the majority of the stations (six of eight) exhibiting increasing

trends in annual TMX. None of the stations exhibited a statistically significant decreasing

trend in annual TMX. The trends in annual TMN were, however, mixed with a bias

towards increasing trends. However, three stations showed statistically significant

decreasing trends in TMN. The observed cooling trend at these stations in the basin

corresponds with results for minimum temperature reported by Fowler and Archer

(Fowler and Archer, 2006) for the upper Indus Basin. The predominantly increasing trend

in diurnal temperature range owing to the asymmetrical trends in TMX and TMN is also

shared with upper Indus stations (Forsythe et al. 2012) and has also been reported in parts

of India (Kumar et al. 1994). This contradicts general global patterns whereby faster

increases in TMX than TMN yield decreasing DTR (Easterling et al. 1997).The increased

warming in the basin could have implications for water availability in the basin as the

contribution of snow and glacier melt to annual runoff at Bhakra reservoir is about 60%.

If the current trends in temperature continue in the future, the magnitude and timings of

water availability at Bhakra reservoir could be significantly impacted thereby putting

drinking water supplies of millions of people at risk. It can be concluded that the analysis

of historic temperature data in India indicates predominantly increasing trend, but not

uniformly so by season, by region or between the maximum and minimum temperature.

The second part of the thesis describes the investigation of linkages of El-Nino Southern

71
Oscillation Index (ENSO) with the precipitation in the basin. The ENSO is a natural

pheonomenon that causes fluctuations in sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial

Pacific. Several weather events around the world are believed to be impacted by the

ENSO. The linkages of monsoonal precipitation in the basin with the warm as well as

cool phases of ENSO were investigated. The results indicated a negative association

between the warm phase and monsoonal precipitation at the majority of stations in the

basin. During the cool phase of ENSO, a positive association between the monsoonal

precipitation was observed in the majority of situations. It can be concluded from the

analysis of linkages of ENSO with monsoonal precipitation in the basin that the warm

phase of ENSO is associated with weak Indian monsoon.

The third part of the thesis describes the development and application of SWAT-based

hydrological model for the basin. The intent was to simulate the potential impact of

climatic changes on the streamflow generation at Bhakra - a major dam in the basin. The

calibration of the SWAT model was carried out using the historical climate data and the

validation was carried out by comparing simulated streamflows with observed

streamflows at Bhakra. The changes in the seasonal and annual streamflows at Bhakra in

response to PRECIS generated outputs of climate variables for two future time slices of

interest; midcentury (2021-2050) and endcentury (2071-2098) were estimated. Outputs of

climate variables under three different emission scenarios, namely, A1B, A2 and B2 were

used to simulate future streamflows at Bhakra. The values of streamflow during the

baseline period near the vicinity of the Bhakra dam ranged from 1892 to 2160 cumec

compared to 1623 to 1891 cumec for the base period. Lower rates of streamflow could

72
occur in some sub-watersheds located in the northern and southeastern parts of the

watershed for both midcentury and endcentury periods. Results of simulations clearly

indicated that the average streamflows at the outlet of the basin are likely to increase

substantially in the future periods considered in this study.

Overall, there would be significant increases in the streamflow in all the three scenarios

for the future periods considered. The substantial increase in streamflows for the future

periods of the A1B, A2, and B2 scenarios in the non-monsoon seasons may be attributed

to larger glacier melt contribution caused by projected higher temperatures. The results

presented herein clearly indicate that projected changes in the climate would alter the

streamflow patterns in the basin, which in turn is likely to impact future water availability

at Bhakra. Since more than half of the annual streamflow volume at Bhakra is contributed

by glacier melt (Singh and Jain, 2002), increased streamflows at the reservoir site points

towards enhanced melting in the basin. With increased streamflow volume at Bhakra, the

vulnerability of the basin to high magnitude flooding events is likely to increase under

future scenarios of climate change in the basin.

SWAT is a potentially useful tool for planning and management of water resources, and

it provides a comprehensive, robust and user-friendly framework for evaluation of water

management strategies. The practicality of the application of SWAT in simulating future

streamflows was clearly demonstrated. The results presented herein indicate that the

SWAT model can be an effective tool for simulating monthly streamflows even for a

basin with complex hydrology. The results of the present study can be profitably utilized

73
by the water managers and policy makers involved with the development of mitigation

and adaptation strategies in the basin.

7.2 Achievement of The Research


The achievements of the research presented in this thesis can be briefly outlined as

follows.

 To put the research carried out in thesis in context, a comprehensive review of the

relevant literature has been carried out

 A detailed description of the study area has been presented. The details of the

study area available in the present thesis could be effectively utilized for future

studies in the basin

 Trend analysis for several hydro-meteorological variables was carried out for a

number of stations in the basin

 A methodologyto analyze linkages of warm and cool phases of ENSO with the

monsoonal precipitation in the basin has been developed

 Application of results obtained from the analysis of linkages of ENSO with

monsoonal precipitation could improve the monsoon forecasting skills in India

through incorporation of sea-surface temperature information in the statistical

forecasting models.

 A hydrological model based on Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has

74
been developed and applied to the simulation of streamflows at Bhakra - the

major reservoir in the basin - under A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios. The practicality of

the model in simulating future streamflows in the basin has been adequately

demonstrated. With the developed SWAT model, evaluation of streamflows under

different combinations of emission scenarios and time slices can be carried out.

 A comprehensive assessment of climate change for the Satluj river basin has been

carried out. The results of the analysis presented herein would provide impetus for

recent climate change modelling and impact assessment efforts in India.

7.3 Limitations of The Research


This section presents the limitations of the research presented in this thesis.

A limitation of the present research is that the hydro-meteorological data used in the trend

analysis are available up to 2010. More recent data are not available. The trend analysis

carried out in this research would have been more reliable had the recent data been

available from a greater number of stations as climate change impacts are believed to be

more pronounced during the recent period. Because of the limitation in the climate data

availability, this study considered the output of SRES A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios as

simulated by a single RCM, namely PRECIS. However, there is a significant variability

in the prediction of future climate scenario among different RCM models. The reliability

of simulated streamflows can be enhanced if output from a larger number of RCMs is

used. A likely source of uncertainty in this study is from the future development plans in

the basin. Several hydropower schemes in the basin are likely to be operational in the

75
future, which can substantially alter the hydrology of the region. These future

developments are not explicitly taken into account. However, emission scenarios used in

the present study did take future developments into account. The linkages of monsoonal

precipitation have been investigated with ENSO and not with other climate indices.

7.4 Recommendations for Further Research


To conclude the thesis, the following recommendations are made for further research

which could lead to further development of knowledge in the area of climate change

impact assessment and mitigation.

7.4.1 Trend Analysis

The first suggested area in which the research can be undertaken follows from the

limitation of the trend analysis. A well known limitation of trend analysis of historical

data is that the analysis is, by its nature, retrospective. of greater concern from an

engineering design perspective is what conditions can be expected to occur in the future,

particularly within the design life of a given piece of infrastructure. A purely

retrospective analysis of the available data may not be a good indicator of future

conditions. Obtaining a more comprehensive view of the present and plausible future

conditions in the basin requires combining trend analysis of historical data with analysis

of climate data obtained from modelling climate change projections using downscaled

results from Global Climate Models (GCMs) in conjunction with an appropriate

hydrological model.

76
7.4.2 Linkages of Climate Indices

The linkages of El-Nino Southern Oscillation Index with the precipitation in the basin

have been investigated in the present work. Some future work may investigate the

linkages of other large scale climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,

which has been shown to have strong connections with hydrological variables,

particularly in the Pacific Northwest (Neal et al., 2002). The linkages of other climate

indices such as those related to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean with the hydrological

variables in the Satluj River basin may be investigated in the future work.

7.4.3 Hydrological Modelling

The reliability of the simulated streamflow outputs of SWAT model can be improved by

considering the inputs from a larger number of RCMs, rather than considering a single

model. An ensemble analysis may then be carried out to determine the range of

streamflow changes, thus improving the reliability of streamflow simulations. Depending

upon the availability of the data, the future studies should aim to employ a larger

ensemble of RCMs and development scenarios for understanding the range of climate

change impacts on the hydrologic regime in the Satluj River basin.Adaptations to adverse

impacts of climate change is critical for the sustainable development of the study basin.

Information related to streamflow projections should be incorporated into planning

activities. The results presented herein could provide valuable aid to policy makers in

formulating effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to counteract the adverse

impacts of climate change in the Satluj River basin.

77
By providing information on lessons learned and insights gained

on adaptation to climate change from global, country, and sector-

level analyses, the hope is to help policymakers worldwide

prioritize actions, along with developing a robust, integrated

approach for greater resilience to climate risks

The onus to aggressively tackle the problem of climate change is with the developed countries that are
historically responsible for high levels of emissions rather than countries such as the Kuwait, which may
have high per-capita emissions, but is responsible for only a fraction of global emissions. Kuwait is not
responsible for global warming on a large scale but it must be a part of the solution of the problem of
climate change. There are several steps that could be taken by the government of Kuwait to mitigate the
impacts of climate change. Some solutions for mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change in Kuwait
are recommended here.
 Development of solar and wind parks for energy generation
 Development of solar powered de-salination plants
 Measures to reduce electricity and water consumption
 Development and enforcement of legally binding emission standards for vehicles
 Development and enforcement of legally binding standard for green buildings
 Research for development of innovative products with the aim to reduce footprints
 Greater emphasis on research towards development of cleaner technologies
 Better Public transportation system
 Greater emphasis on water reuse and recycling practices
Human impact on the planet has accelerated over the last hundred years, with the composition of the Earth's

atmosphere being radically altered by burning fossil fuels. Understanding climate change impacts and

agreeing to take steps forward are critical imperative for the future. In Kuwait, future impacts from climate

change may include: changes in the coastline, a decline in the water supply that is already poor, and an

increase in temperatures causing higher incidence of heat stress. It may also impair air quality, primarily

through increases in ground-level ozone pollution in heavily populated urban areas. Therefore, the need of

78
the hour is the pledge by middle-east countries including Kuwait that could help in closing the ambition

gap between the actions that countries have committed to and the actions required to save the planet from

catastrophic climate change impact.

79
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Brief Bio-data of the Author

Name: Ayman T. Hamid


Date of Birth: May – 01 – 1976
Place of Birth: Mosul – IRAQ
Nationality: Iraqi
Religion: Muslim
Sex: Male
Marital Status: Married
Address: Iraq - Mosul – Al-Thawra Quarter
Work Address: Department of Civil Engineering – Engineering
College- University of Mosul – Mosul - IRAQ
E-Mail: ath_hamid76@yahoo.com
Iraq-Mobile Phone: 00964 (0) 7701894778
India-Mobile Phone: 00911-9891106762

Educational Background:

1. 1988: Primary school (6 year) Mosul – IRAQ

2. 1991: Intermediate school (3 years) Mosul – IRAQ

3. 1995: Secondary School (3 years) Mosul – IRAQ

4. 1999 B.Sc. Civil Engineering - Department of Civil Engineering / College of


Engineering / University of Mosul / Iraq.

5. 2002 M.Sc. Hydraulic Structures - Department of Environmental


Engineering / College of Engineering / Al-Mustansiriyah University/
Baghdad - Iraq.

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Thesis title: Experimental Investigation on the Hydraulic Performance of
Duckbill Weirs.

Supervised by: Professor Dr. Alaa H. Kadoury (Supervisor), Expert. Dr. Putrus
K. Putrus (Co. Supervisor)

Employment:

Lecturer in Civil Engineering Department since 2003 / College of Engineering /


University of Mosul / Mosul / Iraq .

Membership:Member of Iraqi Engineers Association. No. (89027)

Publications(During PhD Research)

1. Hamid, A. T., Sharif, M., and Archer, D. (2014). Analysis of temperature


trends in Sutluj river basin, India. Journal of Earth Science & Climatic
Change, 5(8), ISSN:2157-7617 JESCC, doi:10.4172/2157-7617.1000222

2. Hamid, A. T., Shakeel, M., Sharif, M., and Husain, A. (2014). Analysis of
relationship between meteorological variables for the Satluj river basin,
National Conference on “Water Resources Management – Achievements &
Challenges” (WRM-AC 2014), 22nd March, 2014, Jamia Millia Islamia
University, New Delhi, 262-272.

3. Sharif, M., Hamid, A. T. and Hasan, M.A. (2014). Analysis of projected


temperature and precipitation changes over Satluj river basin, National
Conference on “Water Resources Management – Achievements &
Challenges” (WRM-AC 2014), 22nd March, 2014, Jamia Millia Islamia
University, New Delhi, 10-22.

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4. Hamid, A. T, Ahmed, M. L., and Sharif, M. (2013). Analysis of relationship
between meteorological variables for the city of Delhi, Int'l Journal of
Research in Chemical, Metallurgical and Civil Engg. (IJRCMCE), 1(1), 16-22,
ISSN 2349-1442 EISSN 2349-1450.

5. Othman, k. I. and Hamid, A. T. (2013). Properties of Tigris River bed


material at Mosul city, Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences, 20,(5), 30-44.

6. Sharif, M., Mohammed, S., Alam, S., Lateef, M., and Hamid, A. T. (2013).
Extreme Precipitation Events Simulation Using An Improved K-Nearest
Neighbour Weather Generating Model, International Journal of Emerging
Technology and Advanced Engineering Website: www.ijetae.com, ISSN,
Vol. 3 (8), 2250-2459.

7. Hamid, A. T, Sharif, M., Ahmed, M. L. (2013). Evaluation of trends in


meteorological data of Delhi, Special Issue of International Journal of
Sustainable Development and Green Economics (IJSDGE), 2(1), 117-124,
ISSN No.: 2315-4721, V-2, I-1, 2, 2013

8. Sharif, M. , Hamid, A. T, and Husain, A. (2012). Analysis of extreme


precipitation events in Satluj river Basin, National Conference on Hydraulic
and Water Resources (HYDRO 2012), IIT Bombay, India. 7 & 8 December
2012, 907-916.

9. Husain, A. and Hamid A. T. (2012). Climate change impact on hydro-


meterological variables: A Review, International Journal of Emerging
Technology and Advanced Engineering Website: www.ijetae.com
,ISSN,2250-2459, Vol. 2 (9), 48-54.

10. Sharif, M., Hamid, A.T. and Husain, A. (2013). Simulation of Karangkates
reservoir operation, International Journal of Innovative Research in Science,
Engineering and Technology , 2(5), pp.1850–1857.

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11. Hamid, A. T., and Sharif, M. (2012). Temperature Trends in Satluj River
Basin. Global Conference on Global Warming (GCGW-2012) July 8 – 12,
2012 Istanbul,Turkey , pp 500-509.

12. Sharif, M., Archer, D., and Hamid, A. T. (2012). Trends in streamflow
magnitude and timings in Satluj River Basin. Proc. American Society of Civil
Engineers, World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, 2012, 20-
24 May, New Mexico, USA.

Accepted Papers

1. Hamid, A. T., Shakeel, m. and Sharif, M (2015) Relationship between ENSO


and precipitation in Satluj piver pasin. Bangkok International Conference on
Engineering & Applied Science (BICEAS 2015), 26-28 February, 2015,
Bangkok, Thailand

Submitted Papers

1. Hamid, A. T., Sharif, M and Narsimlu, B.(2015)Assessment of Climate


Change Impacts on Streamflows in Satluj River Basin, India Using SWAT
Model, International Journal of River Basin Management, Taylor & Francis
Group

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