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WDIV/DETROIT NEWS
600 SAMPLE
SEPTEMBER 9, 2018
Page Topic
2 Methodology
3 Key Findings
35 Cross-tabulation Report
METHODOLOGY
The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a Michigan statewide survey of November 2018 likely general election voters. The 600
sample, live operator telephone survey was conducted on September 5-7, 2018 and has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level
of confidence. 64.0% of respondents were contacted via landline telephone. 36.0% of respondents were contacted via cell phone
telephone. This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4 and the Detroit News.
By a margin of 38.2% right – 48.2% wrong, Michigan voters believe the nation is on the wrong track by a 10-point margin.
o Independent voters believe the nation is on the wrong track by a margin of 28.5% right track/ 46.3% wrong track.
o 78% of Republican voters believe the nation is on the right track. 80.0% of Democratic voters believe Michigan is on
the wrong track.
o In January 2018, voters said the nation was on the wrong track by a margin of 33%-54%.
But by a margin of 46.0%-40.0%, Michigan voters believe the state is on the right track.
o Independent voters believe Michigan is on the right track by a margin of 50.4%-34.1%, a 16.3% margin.
o In January 2018, voters said Michigan was on the right track by a narrow margin of 41.0%-37.3%.
49.8% of Michigan voters continue to believe Detroit is on the right track, while only 20.1% believe Detroit is on the wrong
track.
Voters were asked if they approve or disapprove of the job being done by Governor Rick Snyder. Voters are split 46.0%
approve to 46.6% disapprove of his performance.
Voters were asked to think back to 2010 and asked if things in Michigan had gotten better, worse, or stayed the same.
Voters were asked on a one to ten scale, how motivated they were to cast a ballot in the November election. The higher the
number, the greater the motivation. Voters are motivated at a historically high 9.4 on a 10.0 point scale. Voters across all
demographic groups are extremely motivated to vote.
The chart below provides context into how unusual this motivation to vote is. We compared motivation to vote by party for
the past three elections compared to this November. Voters are substantially more motivated to vote than even during the
October 2012 period. Their motivation is in stark contrast to the particularly low levels of motivation in the 2016 election – of
particular note is the motivation compared to 2016 of Independents and Leaning Democratic voters.
Party Affiliation October 2012 October 2014 October 2016 September 2018
Strong Democratic 8.3 7.0 6.7 9.5
Lean Democratic 7.7 6.4 4.7 9.5
Independent 7.0 5.9 5.6 9.1
Lean Republican 7.5 6.2 6.2 9.2
Strong Republican 8.5 6.9 6.5 9.4
Voters were asked if the election were held today, would they generally vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic
candidate for State Representative. By a margin of 46.1%-33.9%, voters chose the generic Democratic candidate over the
generic Republican candidate – a lead of 12.2% for the Democratic candidate. In January 2018, the generic Democratic
candidate had a 10.8% lead in the generic ballot test. [NOTE: The survey was +6.1% Democratic. Democrats are over-
performing their base vote by 6.1%.]
o Independent voters chose the generic Democratic candidate over the Republican by a margin of 28.5%-11.4% -- a
17.1% lead for the Democratic candidate. In January 2018, Independents gave the generic Democratic candidate a
9.6% lead. Independent voters are breaking sharply for the Democratic candidate. (In October 2016, the generic GOP
candidate had a six-point lead among Independents on the generic ballot test.)
But women choose the generic Democratic candidate by a margin of 48.7%-28.0% -- a 20.7% lead among women. This is a
four-point increase since January 2018.
The chart below compares the generic ballot test by gender and outstate vs Metro Detroit. Republicans hold a lead among out
state men, but hold large leads among all other voters. In particular, Democrats hold a 33.7% advantage among Metro
Detroit women. College educated women give Democrats a 25.3% advantage on the generic ballot test.
Voters view Donald Trump unfavorably by a margin of 37.0% favorable to 56.6% unfavorable. These numbers remain
unchanged from January 2018.
The chart below compares Trump favorable/unfavorable by gender and outstate vs Metro Detroit. Only outstate men hold
Trump narrowly favorable. All other groups view Trump unfavorably. But 68.3% of Metro Detroit women view Trump
unfavorably.
But while voters view Trump unfavorably, voters disapprove of the job he is doing by a margin of 44.3% approve to 51.1%
disapprove.
o While 25.5% strongly approve of Donald Trump’s performance, 44.2% strongly disapprove of Trump’s
performance.
While President Trump’s favorable/unfavorable has remain unchanged, his job approval has climbed from 39.5% to 44.3%
since January 2018 – an improvement of 4.8% points.
Voters were asked if President Trump’s performance would or would not be a major factor in how they vote this November.
67.9% of voters said President Trump WOULD play a major factor in how they voted this November.
But when you compare how people view Donald Trump compared to how they plan to vote in the generic ballot test, it is clear
that how voters view Donald Trump drives their position on the generic ballot test. The problem for Republicans is that far
more voters have an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump.
Democrats are using Betsy Devos in their messaging. Republicans are using Jennifer Granholm in their messaging. Voters
were asked their opinions of both women.
Jennifer Granholm has 95% name identification breaking 41.1% favorable to 41.0% unfavorable.
Betsy DeVos has 90.5% name identification breaking 22.4% favorable to 50.7% unfavorable.
Voters were asked if they approve or disapprove of the job being done by Betsy Devos as US Secretary of Education. Voters
disapprove of Betsy Devos’ performance by a margin of 24.4% approve to 60.2% disapprove. 50.3% of Michigan voters
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE of Betsy Devos’ performance.
o Independent voters disapprove of Betsy Devos’ performance by a margin of 17.0%-62.6%. 51.2% of Independents
strongly disapprove of Betsy Devos’ performance.
Bill Schuette has 88.4% name identification breaking 26.2% favorable to 41.3% unfavorable. Bill Schuette’s name
identification is under water by 14.1%.
o Independents have an unfavorable opinion of Bill Schuette with only 18.7% viewing him favorably while 37.4% view
him unfavorably. Schuette is viewed unfavorably by independent voters by a 2-1 margin.
Gretchen Whitmer has 80.9% name identification breaking 39.3% favorable to 19.1% unfavorable.
o Independents have a favorable opinion of Gretchen Whitmer with 35.0% viewing her favorably and 14.6% viewing her
unfavorably.
When asked which candidate they would support for Governor, Whitmer leads Schuette 49.8%-36.1%. 4.1% of voters would
go to Third Party candidates. Only 10.0% of voters remain undecided.
o With a 13.7%-point lead, Whitmer could afford to lose the remaining 10% of undecided voters and still win if she holds
her current voters.
o The race is tied in out-state with Whitmer at 42.8% and Schuette at 42.5%. But in Metro Detroit, Whitmer wallops
Schuette by a margin of 56.6%-29.8% -- a 26.8% lead.
o Whitmer leads among Independent voters by a margin of 39.0%-25.2% -- a 13.8% lead.
o Whitmer leads among men 46.3%-39.8% -- a 6.5% lead. But Whitmer holds a lead of 53.2%-32.5% among women –
a lead of 20.7%. The chart below compares genders by region showing Whitmer leading by 33% among Metro Detroit
women. Schuette only leads among out state men.
o Whitmer leads women of all education levels. Whitmer leads among women with a high school education 52.1%-
36.7%. She leads among women with some post high school education by a margin of 47.7%-36.3%. But she holds a
lead among college educated women 56.5%-28.6%.
o Among voters over 65 years old, Whitmer leads 52.9%-35.0% -- a 27.9% lead.
Debbie Stabenow has 97.7% name identification breaking 54.3% favorable to 31.1% unfavorable.
John James has 54.3% name identification breaking 20.9% favorable to 15.5% unfavorable.
o Independent voters have an unfavorable view of James by a margin of 8.9% favorable to 13.0% unfavorable.
Voters were asked if they approve or disapprove of the job being done by Debbie Stabenow as United States Senator. Voters
approve of Stabenow’s performance by a margin of 54.0% approve to 30.9% disapprove.
o Independent voters approve of her performance by a margin of 56.1% approve to 17.1% disapprove.
In a head to head matchup, Stabenow is cruising to re-election with 55.5% of voters supporting Stabenow compared to only
32.6% supporting James. Stabenow holds a 22.9% lead. More importantly, incumbent Stabenow appears well above the
50% threshold against James.
Dana Nessel has 17.1% name identification breaking 5.1% favorable to 3.0% unfavorable. Nessel has minimal name
identification.
Tom Leonard has 23.0% name identification breaking 3.3% favorable to 5.1% unfavorable. Leonard also has minimal name
identification.
In a head to head matchup, Nessel leads 42.3%-29.4% -- a lead of 12.9%. Third party candidates get 4.6% and 23.7% of
voters remain undecided.
The chart below compares the race by party affiliation. Nessel has nearly united support of Strong and Leaning Democratic
voters, while Leonard appears to have more work to do among Leaning Republican voters.
Perhaps most noticeable is that Nessel holds a 15.5% lead among Independent voters with a large 55.3% of Independents
undecided.
When you look at Trump favorable/unfavorable, the generic ballot test, the Governor’s Race, and the US Senate race, it is clear
the Republican candidate faces the same challenge of Independent voters automatically shifting to the Democratic column.
Jocelyn Benson has 18.7% name identification breaking 5.3% favorable to 2.5% unfavorable. Benson has minimal name
identification.
Mary Treder Lang has 14.3% name identification breaking 2.6% favorable to 2.5% unfavorable. Like Benson, Lang has
minimal name identification.
In a head to head matchup, Benson leads 43.7%-28.5% -- a lead of 15.2%. Third party candidates get 5.2%. 22.5% of voters
remain undecided.
The chart below compares the race by party affiliation. As with the Attorney General race, Strong and Leaning Democratic
voters are united behind their candidate. Strong Republicans are behind their nominee. But 37.0% of leaning Republican
voters remain undecided. And Benson holds a 12.9% lead among Independent voters.
Ballot Proposals: Pot Positioned for Win; Redistricting Proposal Muddled Support
By a margin of 56.2%-38.0%, Michigan voters support legalizing recreational marijuana. Only 5.8% of voters remain
undecided. These numbers have remained consistent for the past two years. [Note: Official ballot language was not yet
available.]
o The chart below compares the proposal’s support by party affiliation. Unlike other proposals, there is no sharp
opposition by party affiliation. Republicans and Independents are split on the proposal, while Democratic voters
strongly support it.
o The more statistically significant demographic appears to be age. Only voters over the age of 65 are sharply opposed to
the marijuana proposal.
By a margin of 37.8%-31.4%, a plurality of Michigan voters narrowly support a constitutional amendment that would create an
Independent Redistricting Commission to handle redrawing legislative and congressional district boundaries. 30.8% of voters
remain undecided. [Note: Official ballot language was not yet available.]
o There are stark differences on the redistricting proposal by party affiliation. Strong Republican voters are sharply
opposed to the constitutional amendment. Leaning Republican and Independent voters are split, with Democratic
voters in support of the proposal But this constitutional amendment is NOT in the upper fifties as is historically
required at the start of a campaign to be positioned for passage.
By a margin of 36.3%-38.8%, Michigan voters are statistically split on the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme
Court. 24.8% of voters remain undecided.
o The chart below compares support for the Kavanaugh appointment by party affiliation.
By a margin of 62.7%-31.3%, Michigan voters support the Mueller investigation – 46.4% of Michigan voters strongly support
the Mueller investigation.
51.3% say the Mueller investigation is fair. 31.9% say the investigation is rigged. 16.9% do not know.
o The chart below compares this question by party affiliation. Only Republican voters believe the investigation is rigged.
Voters who get their primary news from FOX disproportionately believe the Mueller investigation is rigged. The chart below
compares positions by primary source of news.
Voters were asked if they support or oppose regulating search engines to make sure positive stories about the Trump
Administration are more highly placed on searches. Voters reject this idea by a margin of 24.5% support to 55.4% oppose.
47.0% of voters strongly oppose this idea.
o The chart below compares this question by party affiliation. Only Strong Republican voters support this idea.
The chart below compares positions on this issue by primary source of news. Again, Fox News viewers are disproportionately
in support of this idea compared to those that watch other sources of news.
Regulation of Search
Engines Local TV FOX CNN/MSNBC Networks Radio Newspapers
Support 28.3% 41.8% 23.8% 6.2% 13.3% 15.9%
Oppose 44.7% 31.4% 65.1% 79.5% 64.5% 66.6%
Voters were asked if they support or oppose President Trump’s imposition of trade sanctions on other countries. By a margin
of 40.8%-50.0%, Michigan voters oppose the trade sanctions. While 26.5% strongly support the sanctions, 38.2% strongly
oppose the sanctions.
By a margin of 29.8% agree to 64.4% disagree, Michigan voters sharply disagree with President Trump that the media is the
enemy of the people.
The chart below breaks down the question by party affiliation. Strong Republican voters overwhelmingly agree that the
media is the enemy of the people.
By a margin of 40.8%-49.1%, Michigan voters oppose impeachment hearings against President Trump. But 40.8% of voters
now support impeachment hearings.
o Independent voters are opposed to impeachment hearings by a margin of 33.5% support to 49.6% opposed.
Hello, my name is __________. I’m not selling anything. I’m doing a survey of voters in our community. It should take
approximately ten minutes.
1. Yes…..CONTINUE 100.0%
2. No….TERMINATE
B. Thinking about the General Election on November 6th of this year, would you say are definitely going to vote, probably going
to vote, probably not going to vote, or definitely not going to vote?
1. UP/North 13.0%
2. West 11.2%
3. Southwest 8.3%
4. Mid Michigan 8.7%
5. East Central 7.7%
6. Oakland 13.2%
7. Macomb 8.5%
8. Wayne 11.7%
9. City of Detroit 6.7%
10. Remainder of Detroit MSA 11.2%
2. Generally speaking, do you think the nation is on the right track of would you say the nation is on the wrong track?
3. And what about Michigan, do you think things in Michigan are on the right track or would you say they have gotten off on the
wrong track?
4. And do you think things in Detroit are on the right track or would you say they have gotten off on the wrong track?
And what would you say is the most important issue facing
our community right now? Number Percent
Jobs and the Economy 101 16.8 %
Roads and Bridges 77 12.8 %
Water and Sewer Infrastructure 26 4.3 %
Government Spending 14 2.3 %
High Taxes 13 2.2 %
Education Quality 29 4.8 %
Education Funding 25 4.2 %
Auto Insurance Rates 14 2.3 %
Crime and Drugs 49 8.2 %
Poor Leadership/ Divided Politics 37 6.2 %
Immigration 16 2.7 %
Community Development 9 1.5 %
Availability of Health Care 31 5.2 %
Environmental Issues 15 2.5 %
Morality and Social issues 21 3.5 %
Racism/ Racial Inequality 5 0.8 %
High Cost of Living/ Homelessness 22 3.7 %
Poor Public Transportation 3 0.5 %
Misc 0 0.0 %
Don't know/ Refused/ Nothing 93 15.5 %
Total 600 100.0 %
6. If the election for State House was held today, generally speaking would you say you would vote for the [ROTATE]
Democratic candidate or would you vote for the Republican candidate?
1. Democratic 46.1%
2. Republican 33.9%
3. Don’t Know/ Depends…DO NOT OFFER 19.2%
4. Refused…DO NOT OFFER 0.8%
I am going to read you the names of several people you might have heard of. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or
unfavorable impression of that person.
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Donald Trump as President of the United States? ASK: WOULD
THAT BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Debbie Stabenow as United States Senator? ASK: WOULD THAT
BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
24. Do you approve or disapprove the job being done by Betsy DeVos as US Secretary of Education? ASK: WOULD THAT
BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
25. Thinking back eight years to 2010, do you think things in Michigan have gotten better than they were eight years ago, things
have gotten worse than they were eight years ago, or would you say things are about the same as they were eight years ago?
1. Better 55.9%
2. Worse 18.6%
3. About the same 22.5%
4. Don’t Know/ Refused….DO NOT OFFER 3.0%
27. If the election for Michigan Governor were held today and [ROTATE] Gretchen Whitmer was the Democratic candidate, Bill
Schuette was the Republican candidate, Bill Gelineau was the Libertarian candidate, Todd Schleiger was the US Taxpayers
candidate, Jennifer Kurland was the Green candidate, and Keith Butkovich was the Natural Law candidate, who would you
vote for to be Governor? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN?
29. If the election for Secretary of State were held today and [ROTATE] Jocelyn Benson was the Democratic candidate, Mary
Treder Lang was the Republican candidate, Gregory Scott Stempfle was the Libertarian candidate, and Robert Gale was the
US Taxpayers candidate, who would you vote for to be Michigan’s Secretary of State? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH
WAY DO YOU LEAN?
31. And would you say you support or oppose an amendment to Michigan’s Constitution that would create an Independent
Redistricting Commission to be in charge of redrawing Michigan’s legislative and congressional district boundaries. ASK:
WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST SOMEWHAT SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
32. Do you support or oppose the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court? ASK: WOULD THAT
BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST SOMEWHAT SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
34. And would you say the investigation is fair or would you say the investigation is rigged?
1. Fair 51.3%
2. Rigged 31.9%
3. Don’t Know/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 16.9%
35. Do you support or oppose regulating internet search engines like Google to make sure that positive stories about the Trump
Administration are more highly placed in internet searches?
ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST SOMEWHAT SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
37. Would you agree or disagree with President Trump that the media are the enemy of the people? ASK: WOULD THAT BE
STRONGLY AGREE/DISAGREE OR JUST SOMEWHAT AGREE/DISAGREE?
38. Would you say that President Trump’s performance in office will or will not be a major factor in how you vote this November?
IF YES, ASK: AND WILL YOU BE VOTING TO SUPPORT PRESIDENT TRUMP OR WILL YOU BE VOTING TO
OPPOSE PRESIDENT TRUMP?
40. Generally speaking, would you say you tend to vote mostly for Republican candidates, do you vote mostly for Democratic
candidates, or would you say that you vote equally for both Republican and Democratic candidates? IF VOTE EQUALLY
ASK: WOULD YOU SAY YOU LEAN MORE TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR MORE TO THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY, OR WOULD YOU SAY YOU ARE AN INDEPENDENT VOTER?
41. And would you say you are more a support of Donald Trump or more a supporter of the Republican Party?
43. Do you or does any member of your family belong to a labor union or teachers association?
1. Yes 35.0%
2. No 64.0%
3. Don’t Know/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 1.0%
44. And on a scale of one to ten, with one being very low and ten being very high, how motivated are you to vote in this
November’s election? You can name any number from one to ten.
SCORE: 9.4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 DK/Ref
0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.0% 1.8% 4.8% 9.9% 7.1% 73.7% 0.0%
47. And where would you say you primarily get your POLITICAL news?
1. Caucasian 77.8%
2. African American 11.3%
3. Hispanic/Puerto Rican/ Mexican American 1.6%
4. Asian 1.5%
5. Mixed Race…DO NOT OFFER 2.3%
6. Native American 1.3%
7. Other/ Don’t Know/ Refused…DO NOT OFFER 4.1%
1. Male 48.0%
2. Female 52.0%
50. TELEPHONE
1. Cell 36.3%
2. Landline 63.7%
51. This survey was commissioned by the news media. Occasionally, they choose to talk to several participants of the survey.
Can we release your name and telephone to them if they want to talk to you? Or would you prefer that your opinions remain
confidential? IF YES, ASK:
AND CAN WE RELEASE YOUR RESPONSES OR WOULD YOU PREFER THAT YOUR RESPONSES REMAIN
CONFIDENTIAL?
Right Wrong
Metro 33.7% 55.7%
Out State 42.8% 40.5%
Right Wrong
Metro 44.0% 41.7%
Out State 48.2% 38.1%
Right Wrong
Metro 68.3% 15.9%
Out State 30.8% 24.4%
Dem GOP
Metro 53.4% 26.9%
Out State 38.5% 41.1%
Fair Rigged
Metro 55.0% 26.9%
Out State 47.5% 37.1%
SCORE
Metro 9.5
Out State 9.3
Male 9.2
Female 9.5
Union 9.3
Non Union 9.4
18-29 8.8
30-39 9.0
40-49 9.2
50-64 9.5
65+ 9.8