Geonor Digital

Geopolitics in
the High North

Multiple Actors
Norwegian Interests
A five-year (2008–2012) research programme financed

through the Norwegian Research Council and conducted by
the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies with partners and
associates
BROSJYRE med bilder.indd 1 30-09-08 15:13:57

Geopolitics in the High North
The High North stands out as an area of great possibilities in the decades to
come. High energy prices and technological advances have made it possible to
exploit petroleum resources in areas that have hitherto been inaccessible. Due
to climate change, new sea transportation routes may open up – considerably
shortening the distance from Europe and North America to Asia. The demand
for high-quality white fish from the Barents Sea is steadily rising on interna-
tional markets, making Barents Sea fishing a multi-billion dollar industry.
Two decades after the end of the Cold War, cross-border commercial and cul-
tural exchanges between Russia and its Arctic neighbours finally seem to be
experiencing a robust upswing, after a slow and spasmodic beginning. Many
actors on the international scene, both states and private interests, including
emerging economies in Asia, now show a keen interest in the Arctic and the
European High North. Thus, there is more to the Northern euphoria than
just political rhetoric. The region has a considerable potential for economic
growth in several sectors.
At the same time, there are numerous challenges. Environmental risks have
moved high up on the agenda. The effects of climate change threaten the tra-
ditional livelihoods of indigenous populations. Changes in sea temperatures
might lead to fish stocks changing their pattern of migration, creating new
challenges for multinational fishery management. Conflicting interests create a
potential for rivalry between various actors – a potential aggravated by impor-
tant, unsolved jurisdictional issues. Moreover, security in a military-strategic
sense is about to experience a renaissance. As with the expansion of economic
activities in the region, Russia’s renewed self-assertiveness and intention of
rebuilding and modernising its armed forces, including its strategically impor-
tant Northern Fleet, will likely also serve to revive states’ interest and involve-
ment in the region.

Through cooperation between Norwegian and international partners, this
programme aims to develop new knowledge about the complex interaction
of actors in the High North. The Norwegian discourse on High North issues
has tended to be myopic and self-centred, and there is a profound lack of un-
derstanding of how academic experts and decision-makers in other countries
view these questions.
Most of the challenges facing Norway in the High North transcend a narrow,
national framework. Thus, the programme aims to create an international
arena for research and debate in the field. With an improved understanding of
international perspectives on the High North, Norwegian actors will be in a
better position to make well-founded decisions.

Partners and Associates
The research programme includes a group of cooperating institutions and
individuals led by the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (Institutt for
forsvarsstudier – IFS). In line with the suggestions of the Norwegian Research
Council Evaluation Committee, the programme consists of a core group of
Norwegian and international partners, supplemented by associated institu-
tions and associated individuals. IFS notes the Chair of the committee’s em-
phasis on IFS’ responsibility in terms of ensuring that the academic level and
focus of the programme – its aims and purposes – are being fully respected and
adhered to throughout the wide programme.
Partners
The Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS)
specialises in the fields of geopolitics, as well as Norwegian and international
security, including Russian, American and High North security. IFS has priori-
tised the northern region in its research activities, with more than ten scholars
holding High North research competence. In the autumn of 2007, the insti-
tute was responsible for organising two international conferences on the High
North: one pertaining to Cold War issues, the second dealing with current and
future challenges in the High North.
The Department of Political Science of the University of Oslo (UiO)

is the leading academic institution in Norway concerning geopolitics, interna-
tional organisations and regimes, and energy and environmental issues. The
professors taking part in the programme include Dag Harald Claes, Arild Un-
derdal and Øyvind Østerud.
The Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI)

is an independent foundation engaging in social science research on interna-
tional energy, resource and environmental policy, including international law.
It is a leading institute internationally on regime effectiveness and institutional

interplay, on Arctic politics related to marine resource management, climate
and environment, energy development and law of the sea issues. It has also a
major research agenda on Russian politics and interests in the High North.
The Departments of History and Political Science and the Faculty of

Law of
��
the University of Tromsø ��
(UiTØ)
represent one of the major academic research environments for international
relations in the High North. Key research areas include international ocean
law and governance, and the history of the Arctic. Alf Håkon Hoel, Tore
Henriksen, Hallvard Tjelmeland, Torbjørn Pedersen and Per Christiansen
will be the main contributors.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

in Washington DC is one of the world’s most prominent research institutes.
It ranks among the leading institutes within the fields of geopolitics, global
security, defence policy and international security, and energy security. CSIS
specialists seek to anticipate changes in key countries and regions, including
Europe.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin

is an independent research institute, and the leading German centre for inter-
national and security studies. Apart from participating in the scholarly dis-
course in Germany and internationally, it produces policy papers for the use
of the German government and parliament. SWP’s research agenda is directed
towards current issues of public and policy interests.
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)

is one of the major Russian research institutions on international and security
issues. Apart from conducting research, MGIMO offers a full spectrum of
higher education in the field. MGIMO hosts the Norwegian-Russian Institute
of Energy Cooperation, established in 2004 in cooperation with the Graduate
School of Business and Bodø University College.

The Institute of Universal History of the Russian Academy of
Sciences (IUH), Moscow
is the major Russian research institute on international history. The institute
specialises in Cold War studies, and is an active participant in international
networks in the field. IFS has been cooperating closely with the IUH since the
early 1990s.
Associated Institutions
The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment
is a leading research institution focusing on a broad range of defence related
areas, with a main focus on defence technology. In this programme it supple-
ments IFS’ research portfolio in security studies, with a particular focus on
Russian security policy and regional military affairs.
Econ Pöyry
is a Nordic research institute and consulting company working primarily at
the crossroads between markets, policies and technology. Econ Pöyry conducts
research across a wide spectrum of topics and issues, most notably energy-re-
lated questions.
Associated Individuals
Apart from the institutions listed above, a number of individual Norwegian
and foreign researchers have agreed to participate in some form with the pro-
gramme. Among these the following researchers are the most central:
Professor Clive Archer, Manchester Metropolitan University

Dr Rob Huebert, University of Calgary
Professor Valur Ingimundarson, University of Iceland
Dr Eirik Mikkelsen, Northern Research Institute (NORUT)
Dr Erik Molenaar, Netherlands Institute for the Law of the Sea (NILOS)
Dr Susanne Nies, Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI), Brussels
Professor David VanderZwaag, Dalhousie University�
Professor Oran R. Young, University of California Santa Barbara (UCSB)

Terminology
Before developing further the research agenda of this programme outline, three
basic concepts need clarification.
The High North (in Norwegian: “nordområdene”) and related concepts are
widely open to interpretation. Their geographical delimitation varies from one
country to the other and according to the agenda of the user. The term “High
North” as used in this programme outline is confined to the European High
North and is guided by practioners’ usage rather than by theoretical consid-
erations. It includes those parts of the Nordic countries and Russia that par-
ticipate in the Barents Euro-Arctic Region, the Norwegian Sea, the Barents
Sea, and the southern parts of the Polar Sea. The totality of the areas north of
the polar circle (the whole circumpolar region) will be referred to by the term
the Arctic.
The term geopolitics reflects the connection between power and interests, stra-
tegic decision-making, and geographic space. Its contemporary use deviates
radically from its origin in the late 19th century, when the term reflected an
understanding of international affairs strongly influenced by Social Darwin-
ism. It also signalled a cynical realist view of international affairs, with limited
belief in the significance of multilateralism, global norms or international law.
As used in this programme outline, geopolitics denotes the interplay of natural
resources, strategic dominance and geographic space on the one hand, and
the various state and non-state actors pursuing individual as well as collective
interests on the other. However, the linkage to earlier usage of the term is not
entirely broken. Growing use of the concept in the present public debate sig-
nals a need for a term that reflects the renaissance of great power rivalry and
the rise of multipolarity in the early 21st century.
Geopolitics is often paired with national interest, a term closely associated with
the school of realism in international affairs. In its classical form, this tradition
holds that all states must pursue their objective interests, of which the survival

of its sovereign status is the most essential. Such a view of interests has been
widely rejected as reductionist and rudely determinist. The interesting question
is how such interests are formulated and revised through processes involving
various pressure groups, media, experts and decision makers, all within a set-
ting of determinants such as a political and strategic culture. Moreover, schol-
ars and politicians alike realise that whereas some interests may lead to rivalry
(i.e., territorial disputes or access to markets), other interests are in fact shared
(i.e. peace, stability, predictable rules of international interaction).

Programme focus and projects
Within a geopolitical framework as suggested above, the programme will fo-
cus on the following clusters of issues and determinants:
• Actors and patterns of cooperation and conflict (Work Package 1)

• The role of traditional state actors and the most relevant regional group-
ing: Russia, the USA, Germany, the European Union (Work Packages 2,
3, 4)
• Energy, jurisdiction and governance, and climate change and environment
(Work Packages 5, 6, 7)
• Security (element in all packages)
Moreover, IFS will conduct a separate package (no. 8) that aims to synthesise
consequences and lessons for Norwegian interest emanating from the seven
first work packages. Below is a description of the eight Work Packages includ-
ed in the programme, together with a preliminary list of researchers involved.
There may be changes to this list, and additional researchers may be included
at a later stage.

Work Package 1
Actors and Patterns of Cooperation and Conflict
Responsible: Professor Rolf Tamnes, IFS

Participants: IFS, UiO, FNI, UiTø, CSIS, SWP, MGIMO
This Work Package will identify the various categories of actors in the High
North and analyse the interplay between them. The Work Package is envis-
aged as having an over-arching character, covering the entire project period,
and it will draw extensively on the findings from the other Work Packages. It
will involve representatives of all partners, and be run by senior scholars from
partner institutions.
The following research problems will be covered:
• Which actors are the most important in the High North? What are the
main interests and the impact of the various actors?
• How and where do the interests of various actors clash, giving rise to
conflict or rivalry? To what degree are there perceived common interests
among important actors? What alliances or common understandings (tacit
or official) exist between them?
• How can the complex web of interests be managed through cooperation,
dialogue and negotiation, so that constructive and mutually acceptable
compromises can be reached?
There is a number of unsolved issues in the High North which will be more
pressing in the near future, as economic activities expand. For example, there
are eight bilateral boundary issues involving all states in the region. Of par-
ticular importance to Norway are the issues of the maritime delimitation line
between Russia and Norway and the disagreement on various aspects of the
Svalbard Treaty. Moreover, the northernmost extension of the continental
shelves in the Arctic is not yet decided.

States, particularly the traditional great powers, will play a key role in the
region. However, local and regional authorities, NGOs promoting environ-
mental protection, as well as indigenous populations, have their own agen-
das. Commercial interests will grow dramatically in importance. These include
large energy companies, many with state ownership, fishing interests, shipping
companies and tourist business. The complex interplay among all these actors
will have decisive impact on the geopolitics of the High North in the decades
to come.
Among multilateral organisations, the Arctic Council and the Barents Re-
gional Cooperation will probably remain important arenas for discussion. The
European Union will most likely function as a stabiliser and contribute to
promoting norms and rules. However, it is more questionable whether the EU
can be seen as a unified actor in the High North in a geopolitical perspective,
as the interests of its member states are not uniform. NATO might as a collec-
tive defence organisation be given a role in energy security in the High North.
Moreover, areas under the jurisdiction of NATO member states are covered by
NATO’s collective security guarantee under Article 5 of the treaty.
Furthermore, the whole Arctic is marked by a tight web of international
agreements and regimes that both regulate activity and provide procedures for
solving disagreements. Examples are the UN Convention of the Law of the
Sea, the UN Fish Stock Agreement, the North East Atlantic Fisheries Com-
mission and the International Maritime Organisation, as well as a number of
principles of international law.
Policies towards activities in the region vary among key actors. Some argue
in favour of more international governance, while others demand freedom of
action. Some promote openness and international cooperation, whereas others
aim for exclusive zones, spheres of interest and national privileges.
The programme will investigate the High North policies of the Nordic
countries, with a particular view to the potential for cooperation and joint
policy formulation in selected areas. The developing Nordic security and de-
fence cooperation is one natural focus for this effort.
Status of research: There is a profound lack of research on the totality of actor

constellations in the High North. There are a few studies on individual coun-

tries, on the role of local authorities and the ability of indigenous populations
to influence the development. Similarly, there is a need for scholarly works that
look at the relations between the layers of actors and how they interact. Such
an overall analysis would be a major contribution to our understanding of the
geopolitical dynamics of the region.
Timeframe: 2008–2012
Activities: workshops/seminars
Participating researchers: Professor Rolf Tamnes and Senior Fellow Paal S. Hilde,
IFS; Professor Øyvind Østerud, UiO; Professor Alf Håkon Hoel, UiTø; Senior
Fellow Olav Schram Stokke, FNI; Senior Fellow Julianne Smith, CSIS; Dr An-
dreas Maurer, SWP; Professor Lev Voronkov, MGIMO
Output: One major synthesising monograph; occasional papers with policy
relevance, three per year in 2009–2012

Work Package 2
Russia, Norway and the High North
Past, Present, Future
Responsible: Senior Fellow Sven G. Holtsmark, IFS

Participants: IFS, FFI, UiTø, Econ Pöyry, IUH, MGIMO
In the European High North, Russia is by far the largest state and a crucial
player. In recent years Russia has become more stable and has experienced
fast economic growth due to high energy prices. Russia appears with renewed
self-assertiveness on the international stage, and is once again flexing military
muscles in the High North. Relations between Russia and Western powers
– particularly the United States and Britain – have become more strained. At
the same time, Norway has so far managed to keep a good and fruitful rela-
tionship with its eastern neighbour. For Norwegian decision-makers, under-
standing the rationale of Russian past, present and future policies is of crucial
importance.
Russia is changing rapidly as a result of a complex interaction of economic,
political, socio-cultural and technological forces, both from within and out-
side the country. The only certainty is that relations between Norway and
Russia in the High North will to a large degree depend on how Russia devel-
ops internally. To shed some more light on future perspectives, a driving force
analysis will be conducted and implications for Russo-Norwegian relations
will be drawn.
A central interest for Norway has been to handle relations with Russia
successfully – keeping a good relationship, while at the same time avoiding
potential pitfalls. During the later years, Norway has also tried energetically
to engage Russia in a positive sense in as many arenas as possible. Apart from
the general aim of building a robust relationship, this engagement policy also
has a quite substantial economic dimension – there is a great potential for
Norwegian companies on the expanding Russian markets.

The Work Package will explore Russian interests in the High North and
relations with Norway with particular attention to identifying trends of conti-
nuity as well as new traits.
The Work Package will include the following major projects:
• A broad synthesising monograph on Russian-Norwegian relations, 1917–

2014, with particular focus on High North questions within a geopolitical
context. The project will look at issues like the evolution of Russian High
North policies, including jurisdictional issues in the Barents Sea; Russian
discourse on the country’s interests vis-à-vis Norway; Russian perceptions
of Norwegian foreign and security policies in general and High North
policies in particular; the role of various Russian actors, including the
evolution of the role of non-state actors.
• A comprehensive survey will be conducted of contemporary Russian High
North policies in a geopolitical perspective, with focus on the interaction
between the utilisation of natural resources and the evolution of Russian
military and security structures in the area. This part of the project will re-
sult in a post-doctoral project, and a number of articles in listed journals.
• Protection of Russia’s economic interests seems to figure highly on the
agenda of the military, including the Northern Fleet. At the same time, the
Fleet’s traditional main function – nuclear deterrence – is still a fundamen-
tal priority. This means that the country’s political and military leaders
have to strike a balance between the two functions.
Activities: one workshop/seminar in Moscow, one in Norway
Researchers involved: Senior Fellow Sven G. Holtsmark and Senior Research
Fellow Katarzyna Zysk, IFS; Dr Aleksej Komarov and Ms Anastasia Kasiyan,
IUH; Professor Lev Voronkov, MGIMO; Senior Analyst Kristian Åtland, FFI;
Senior Advisor Morten Anker, Econ Pöyry; Professor Jens Petter Nielsen and
Senior Research Fellow Stian Bones, UiTø.
Output: Monograph, post-doctoral project, three articles in listed journals

Work Package 3
The United States in the 21 Century Arctic
Responsible: Senior Fellow Julianne Smith, CSIS

Participating institutions: CSIS, IFS
This project will examine US policies towards the Arctic region, with special
attention to the European High North.
The following main research problems will be addressed:
• What are the interests of the United States in the Arctic, and how will they
change as the area becomes more accessible for economic exploitation and
transport?
• What are potential meeting-points and areas of cooperation between the
United States, Norway and other nations in the High North? Are there ar-
eas for more extensive cooperation? Are there areas of potential conflict?
• How does the United States view the High North within a global strategic
security framework? How does the United States view the significance of
multilateral security cooperation in the region, especially with respect to
NATO, and, in this connection, Norway? To what extent can we expect
major changes in US policy on these issues in the future?
Until 1990 the High North played an important role in the geopolitics of the
United States, but American interests in the region fell steeply after the end of
the Cold War. However, this may change. The US National Security Council
is now preparing a review of US policy in the Arctic, and that might lead to a
reappraisal of US interests in the region.

Some possible trends could influence on US policies:
• Secure access to energy is of vital importance to the United States. In the

future, the role of Arctic petroleum extraction might become even more
important. Most of the remaining petroleum resources are located in re-
gions that are highly volatile, compared to the Arctic. Moreover, high en-
ergy prices, and technological advances open up opportunities to exploit
the Arctic petroleum reserves.
• The reduction of Arctic sea ice might exacerbate a number of sovereignty
issues. From a US perspective, the most imminent dispute involves the
legal status of the Northwest Passage. Moreover, along with the other Arc-
tic states, the United States is laying claims to parts of the northernmost
extension of the continental shelves in the Arctic. Should the United States
ratify the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea, the US administration
will be in a stronger position to influence on the UN deliberations on the
issue.
• There are a number of security issues in the region. In the future, the
increasingly ice-free waterways could serve as conduits for illegal immi-
grants and terrorists, and as transit routes for weapons of mass destruc-
tion. The latter threat forms some of the background for the plans for
establishing a missile defence system covering the region. Moreover, in the
possible multipolar power system of the future, important Asian countries
will have far stronger footprints in the north. China is especially keen to
open the northern route with giant container ships. These developments
are mentioned in the new US maritime strategy of October 2007.
• However, in a short and medium term perspective, we might assume that
US ambitions to contain the resurgent Russia will be the most decisive fac-
tor in shaping US geopolitics of the Arctic in general, and the European
High North in particular.
US relations with NATO are crucial, especially from a European and a Nor-
wegian point of view. Seeing US interests in the High North within US global
strategic assessments form the background for understanding US policies in
the region.

This Work Package will draw on relevant findings in Work Package 7 (Cli-
mate Change and Environmental Protection), and when appropriate, individ-
ual projects in the two Work Packages will be closely coordinated.
There is a substantial body of research on US policies in the High North
during the Cold War, e.g. Rolf Tamnes’ seminal study on US geopolitics in the
High North from 1991. However, after the end of the Cold War, the scholarly
interest for US strategic interests in the High North has been limited. Thus,
there is a need for new studies, taking recent developments into account.
Activities: four workshops/seminars
Researchers involved: Senior Fellow Julianne Smith and Senior Fellow Steve
Flanagan, CSIS; Fellow Svein Melby and Research Fellow Ingrid Lundestad,
IFS
Output: PhD-dissertation, 4 occasional papers

Work Package 4
Defining an Interest
The European Union and the High North
Responsible: Dr Andreas Maurer, SWP

Participants: SWP, IFS, UiO, UiTø
The European Union is not a unified actor in the High North in a geopolitical
perspective. The development of a coherent foreign and security policy is a
gradual process, and so far the EU lacks a unified stance on the High North.
The interests of those member states showing any involvement often point in
different directions. The existence of the Northern Dimension does not alter
this general picture. Until now, the Northern Dimension has been constricted
to regional developments in the Baltic region, although there are elements that
point to a wider role, including the importance attached to energy and envi-
ronmental issues in recent projects.
The Work Package will focus on the potential for a more unified and inte-
grated European Union High North policy. Emphasis will be on the manage-
ment and exploitation of natural resources, on traditional security and on
issues of jurisdiction. Due to its key role in European processes relevant to this
programme, special attention will be paid to the evolution of German attitudes
and policies. Some Norwegian observers have claimed that Germany is the sole
major European power that can be expected to sympathise with Norway were
unsolved issues of jurisdiction to become acute. This being said, other Euro-
pean countries have also declared their interests in the High North. French
companies are already involved in the petroleum sector, while the British in
recent years have asserted their views on legal aspects related to the Svalbard
treaty. Other European countries are involved in fishing in the Barents Sea.
By inviting a German partner to join the programme, the aim is not only to
involve established German experts in specified research projects. An equally
important ambition is to boost the interest in High North issues in the German
research community. The German partner will therefore make particular ef-

forts to attract senior students and young researchers to the field. Similarly, the
programme has established contacts with Professor Clive Archer, who works
on British-Norwegian relations in the High North at Manchester Metropoli-
tan University, and Dr Susanne Nies at the Institut français des relations inter-
nationales.
With the major exception of energy relations with Russia, research on EU,
German, French and British High North policies is limited both in Norway
and internationally. A recent research topic has been the political impact of
the planned gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea. Thus, building on established
research on Russia and security issues in general, the projects of this Work
Package will include questions which up to now has been almost absent from
the research agenda in continental EU member states.
The Work Package will include three major projects:
• Research report: The potential role for EU energy policy of the High North
as an energy province, bearing in mind the current preponderance of na-
tional interests of individual EU states over common Union position
• Research report: EU member states’ policy on legal issues in the High
North, and the prospects for the establishment of a common EU position.
Particular focus will be paid to the fishery protection zone and the con-
tinental shelf around Svalbard. This project will be closely linked to the
work undertaken in Work Package 6.
• Research report: The evolution of EU and individual EU member states’
perception of the military security relevance of the High North, and the
potential for dialogue between Norway and the EU and individual mem-
ber states.
Activities: two workshops/seminars
Participants: Dr Andreas Maurer, SWP; Professor Dag Harald Claes, UiO; Pro-
fessor Per Christiansen, UiTø; Senior Fellow Kåre Dahl Martinsen and Re-
search Fellow Kristine Offerdal, IFS
Output: three research reports, 4 occasional papers

Work Package 5
The Power of Energy
Responsible: Professor Dag Harald Claes, UiO

Participants: UiO, FNI, Econ Pöyry, IFS, CSIS
The volume of petroleum extraction in the High North might rise substantially
in the course of the next decades. Russia is first in line to develop major new
resources, but the estimates for other regions – in Canadian, US, Danish, and
Norwegian waters – are significant, if still highly uncertain. At the same time,
increasing demand for energy worldwide, especially in developing economies,
and threats to the stability and security of existing supplies of energy, make
exploration of Arctic energy resources important. This project will study the
geopolitical significance of the energy resources in the High North. There is
reason to assume that the energy resources in the Arctic are significant even
seen in a global perspective, and many politicians and observers are of the
opinion that the region will assume great importance in global thinking on
energy security.
The project will start by analysing how the concept of “energy security” is
perceived by important actors in a High North setting, and what implications
a quest for such security might have. The various aspects of the security dimen-
sions include security of delivery, security of demand, security of transporta-
tion, security of infrastructure against terrorism, and environmental security.
Energy security also has to do with energy prices – at some price levels, impor-
tant actors will feel that their security of consumption is under threat. Finally,
the conceptualisation of energy security, and the role of fossil fuels in energy
security, might change as climate challenges rise across the globe. We foresee a
smaller separate study on this topic in the early stages of the project.
So far, too little analysis has been made on the geopolitical significance of
the Arctic resources. There is a need for a better grasp of how significant these
resources actually are, and how they could profitably be brought to markets.
What is clear is that the perceived degree of global petroleum scarcity consti-
tutes a fundamental economic condition for development of energy resources
in the High North. A small study of the changing characteristics of the external

energy policy of the European Union will be made early in the program period
to understand the European energy context of the High North resources.
Two following sets of questions will be of particular interest to the Work Pack-
age:
• We need a better understanding of how the Arctic compares with other

energy regions both politically and economically. Extraction costs, infra-
structure, transportation and environmental and climate impacts are all
important factors. The Work Package will thus include comparative eco-
nomic studies related to such indicators. There is also a need to relate the
region to features of the global oil market. What oil prices are needed to
make extraction of these resources viable? What are the comparative ad-
vantages and disadvantages of the energy resources of the High North? To
what extent can economic disadvantages be compensated by skilful use of
political and diplomatic instruments?
• The same institutions will cooperate on a separate study of oil companies’
interests and attitudes towards the energy resources in the High North.
We foresee vivid participation and dialogue with commercial actors in this
project.
• Energy rich regions are usually seen as infused with political conflicts.
However, recent studies suggest a high level of international cooperation
in oil rich regions. Building on findings from research within other parts
of the Work Package, an empirical comparison of the High North oil re-
gion with political cooperation and conflict in other energy regions will be
conducted. We will relate this study to similar studies of other energy-rich
regions.
• Natural gas is not yet a global commodity in the same way as oil. The
extensive network of pipelines tends to isolate the European gas market
from other regional markets. However, the falling costs of liquefied natu-
ral gas (LNG) transportation shows signs of integrating different regional
gas markets. This structural change of gas markets is of vital importance
for the economic viability of gas resources in the High North. Gas consti-
tutes a significant part of the proven and estimated petroleum resources
in the Arctic, especially in the Russian Barents and Kara Seas. Presently,
Russian gas is mostly piped to Europe in pipelines that not only have lim-

ited capacity, but also find a limited market. To sell gas profitably, this gas
would either need to displace existing gas deliveries to Europe, or find new
market, presumably using LNG tankers to transport gas overseas. The
study of the geopolitical aspects of the gas resources of the High North
will have to be related to this strategic condition.
Activities: four workshops/seminars
Researchers involved: Professor Dag Harald Claes, UiO; Deputy Director Arild
Moe��
and Research Fellow Lars Gulbrandsen��
, FNI; Senior Advisor Morten
Anker, Econ Pöyry; Professor Rolf Tamnes, Fellow Ingerid M. Opdahl and
Research Fellow Kristine Offerdal, IFS; Senior Fellow David Pumphrey, CSIS
Output: 5 separate studies, partly overlapping with 3 articles for listed jour-
nals.

Work Package 6
Law of the Sea and Ocean Governance
Responsible: Professor Alf Håkon Hoel, UiTø

Participants: UiTø, FNI, NORUT, Netherlands Institute for the Law of the Sea,
Dalhousie University, University of California Santa Barbara (UCSB)
With its more than 2 mill. sq. km exclusive economic zone, and its marine
industries one of the main pillars of the economy, Norway is a major ocean
power. Most of these areas are in the High North; Norway is one of five
countries with waters and continental shelf areas bordering the Arctic Ocean.
Norway’s Arctic waters share borders with Denmark/Greenland, Iceland and
Russia. The latter boundary, in the Barents Sea, is currently unresolved. Also
Norway’s exercise of jurisdiction beyond the territorial waters of the Svalbard
archipelago is subject to debate. Under this Work Package, we will address
three inter-related questions, the first and second circumpolar in scope and the
third centring on the Barents Sea.
• The adequacy of the law of the sea and international environmental law to the
Arctic Ocean. The prospects for increased access to the Arctic Ocean in
terms of amongst other navigation, fishing and petroleum activities, raises
research questions on the adequacies of the existing international legal re-
gimes for regional maritime governance. First addressed are the legal ques-
tions concerning the fixing of the outer limits of the continental shelf and
the delimitation of the Arctic maritime zones; thus also the identification
of areas of global commons. The second question are possible models for
the governance of these global commons and the Arctic marine environ-
ment under the Law of the Sea and international environmental law.
• Great-power policies towards the Barents Sea (post-doc project). This study
will analyse the interests and policies of the USA, the UK and the EU to-
wards jurisdictional issues in the Barents Sea, including Svalbard. These
actors have traditionally been Norway’s major allies in high politics. Little
systematic knowledge exists, however, about their interests and positions

regarding the delimitation issues in the Barents Sea and jurisdiction in the
waters and on the shelf off Svalbard. The study will draw on a combina-
tion of policy and legal analysis, drawing on unique empirical material
currently being collected from archives in the USA and UK.
• The history of Norwegian jurisdictional expansion (PhD project). Norway
has been one of the major beneficiaries of the developments in interna-
tional ocean law. This project will explore Norway’s efforts to influence
these developments in the post WWII era and in the UNCLOS III-process
(1974–1982) in particular. It will examine how Norway has implemented
the rules emanating from global agreements into domestic legislation. Par-
ticular attention will be paid to the issues the developments have raised in
the Arctic, in terms of jurisdiction over maritime zones and in the manage-
ment of natural resources.
The Work Package will also include a PhD course on Arctic Ocean Govern-
ance, thereby contribute to the training of a future generation of researchers.
Activities: workshops/seminars, PhD course
Researchers involved: Professor Alf Håkon Hoel, Professor Tore Henriksen,
Professor Hallvard Tjelmeland and Dr Torbjørn Pedersen, UiTø; Senior Fellow
Olav Schram Stokke, FNI; Dr Eirik Mikkelsen, NORUT; Dr Erik Molenaar,
Netherlands Institute for the Law of the Sea; Professor David VanderZwaag,
Dalhousie University; Professor Oran R. Young, UCSB
Output: one PhD dissertation; post-doctoral project; 6–7 acticles in listed jour-
nals

Work Package 7
Climate Change and Environmental Protection
Responsible: Senior Fellow Olav Schram Stokke, FNI

Participants: FNI, UiTø, UiO, UCSB
Global environmental change affects the Arctic with particular force, nota-
bly with respect to temperature change and bioaccumulation of pollutants
that pose severe health threats. The ‘Arctic eight’ include two pivotal states
in global climate politics, the USA and Russia. Moreover, China has recently
applied for observer status in the Arctic Council, today a major institution
for pinpointing Arctic consequences of global warming and for generating
Arctic premises in broader policy debates on mitigation and adaptation. This
Work Package examines the adequacy of the Arctic institutional architecture
and its interplay with broader institutions as a means of dealing with pressing
environmental challenges. These challenges concern i) climate change; ii) long-
range transport of hazardous waste; iii) regional oil and gas development; and
iv) nuclear safety.
The assessment rests on three pillars:
• One is to examine the interests major actors have in the Arctic region
within these four issue areas, with emphasis on Norway, Russia, the EU,
and the USA, attending also to the industry and civil-society groups that
participate in interest definition. What are the patterns of common and
competing interests in these issue areas and to what extent, if any, do the
recent and upcoming changes in Russian and US administrations affect
such patterns?
• A second pillar evaluates the problem-solving adequacy of the activities
that regional Arctic institutions specialise in. At present, the focus of those
institutions rests on knowledge generation, soft-norm promulgation and
to some extent capacity enhancement.

• The third pillar builds on the other two and clarifies the political room
for, and desirability of, modifying the division of labour between Arctic
international institutions and broader organisations and decision-making
venues in the four issue areas. Among the issues is the question of whether
the framework the Law of the Sea Convention offers for Arctic govern-
ance needs region-specific contributions, beyond the soft-law approach
that the Arctic Council has opted for.
Throughout the studies, implications for Norwegian interests are discussed.

Whenever feasible, close cooperation is envisaged with projects under Work
Packages 1 (Actors and Interests), 3 (US Interests and Policy), 4 (EU Interest
and Policy) and 6 (Law of the Sea and Ocean Governance).
Activities: workshops/seminars, conference panels.
Researchers involved: Senior Fellow Olav Schram Stokke, Research Fellow
Lars Gulbrandsen, Research Fellow Øystein Jensen and Research Fellow Svein
Vigeland Rottem, FNI; Professor Alf Håkon Hoel, UiTø; Professor Arild Un-
derdal, UiO; Professor Oran R. Young, UCSB.
Output: 5–6 articles in listed journals; conference and seminar papers and pres-
entations; short feature articles aiming at specific users or the wider public.

Work Package 8
Deep Seas, Dire Straits:
Norwegian High North Interests Revisited
Responsible: Senior Fellow Paal Sigurd Hilde, IFS

Participant: IFS
All above described Work Packages deal with the issue of Norwegian interest.
This notwithstanding, there is a need to synthesise the consequences and les-
sons generated by the findings of the above packages. This work package will
in its entirety be self-financed by IFS.
The following main research problems will be addressed, based on findings

from the other Work Packages:
• What are the perceived interests of Norway in the High North, as seen
from main Norwegian decision makers? What kinds of traditions guide
these perceptions?
• How does Norway pursue national interests in the complex geopolitical
environment of the High North today? How are Norwegian interests per-
ceived by other main players in the region?
• Should Norwegian interests and priorities be adjusted in view of current
geopolitical developments? Is there a potential for new thinking concern-
ing political tools, cooperative architecture and strategic alliances?
Traditionally, Norwegian authorities have emphasised the following catego-

ries of interests in the High North:
• Protection of national sovereignty, jurisdiction and exclusive rights. Norwe-

gian authorities have emphasised clear and unequivocal manifestations of
Norwegian sovereignty or sovereign rights when these can be seen to be
actively challenged. At the same time, there has been a tendency to avoid

unnecessary clashes of opinion. The rationale seems to be that Norway is
better served with a gradual development of habitual legitimacy.
• Stability, low tension. Norwegian authorities have tried to contribute to eas-
ing geopolitical tension and promote stability and predictability in the
region. Thus, Norway avoids allied military activity that can provoke the
Russians and promotes common PfP exercises.
• Economic growth. The promotion of Norwegian commercial interests and
improvement of the livelihoods of Norwegians, particularly in Northern
Norway, have been important aims for Norwegian policies in the High
North. Norwegian authorities encourage economic exchange cross the
border.
• Sustainable resource management. A sound and sustainable management of
both marine harvesting and petroleum activities have been considered as
important.
• Energy security. It is seen as a Norwegian interest that Norway stands out
as a predictable, reliable and responsible energy producer, with commer-
cial practices marked by transparency and respect for the mechanisms of
the free market. Norway has fended off all pressure to distribute petro-
leum products on other terms than commercial ones.
• Environmental concerns, climate change. Norway promotes international
cooperation on high standards on health, safety and the environment in
the High North. Lately Norway has also taken an active role in reducing
global CO2 emissions in order to halt climate change.
• Managing the relationship with Russia. A central interest for Norway has
been to handle the relations to Russia successfully. Harsh criticism of the
eastern neighbour has not been considered to be in Norwegian interest.
During the later years, Norway has tried to engage Russia in a positive
sense. Apart from the general aim of building a good relationship, this
engagement policy also has an economic dimension. The greatest success
so far is the agreement to let StatoilHydro in as one of the partners in de-
veloping the Stockman gas field – although the long-term outcome of this
deal remains to be seen.

• Involving Western countries. While Russia has often been eager to promote
cooperation with Norway on a bilateral basis, because of the asymmetry
between the two parties, a central dictum in Norwegian policies towards
Russia has been to handle vital issues within multilateral frameworks and
in close conjunction with traditional allies. Bilateral arrangements have
been avoided, particularly arrangements based on condominium, joint
venture, shared responsibility, common zones, and the like.
The work package will give a critical assessment of all these traditional percep-
tions of national interest and the priorities between them.
Status of research: There is a substantial body of research on how these inter-

ests have been pursued in a contemporary historical perspective, i.e. Norsk
utenrikspolitikks historie (History of Norwegian Foreign Relations), volumes
5 and 6. There is a need for an updated analysis of how traditions meet with
the new challenges arising from the growing importance of energy in the High
North, as well as recent development of Russian policies. Such a project will
constitute a very valuable contribution to the existing research on Norwegian
national interests in today’s world.

Activities and Relevance
The research programme will give the highest priority to user value. A primary
aim of the programme is to create an updated body of knowledge on High
North policies that can be used by foreign policy decision makers in relevant
ministries, particularly the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as
other research establishments, commercial actors, NGOs and the media.
The programme will contribute to:
• New knowledge, new approaches and scholarly based policy recommen-

dations
• The development of research competence in Norway and abroad
• The involvement of international academic centres of excellence, as a sup-
plement to the outreach activities of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign
Affairs.
• Dialogue with primary users on issues of direct policy relevance.
Listed below are major activities for dissemination, networking and consulta-
tion:
• International conferences The programme will organise four internation-

al conferences, one in Tromsø, one in Washington, DC, one in Berlin and
one in Moscow. The venues will aim to gather experts, decision-makers,
business representatives and military leaders.
• Workshops and seminars A number of smaller workshops and seminars
will be organised in order to discuss themes from the various projects.
One venue will seek to engage interested actors in Asia, possibly through
a workshop in Beijing. IFS have several China-experts and a research net-
work that can be involved in this effort.
• North Site A continuously updated internet site will serve to disseminate
results from ongoing research, announce venues, and invite external views

and opinions. This website will also supply relevant graphic material, sta-
tistics and maps. The North Site will contain a guide to the media on
experts that can comment on relevant topics.
• Network North There is a lack of an international network for experts
working on High North issues in various fields of research and develop-
ment. The programme will take steps to establish such an interdisciplinary
network. In practice it will consist of a list of e-mail addresses, a regular
e-mail newsletter with links to news on the North Site.
• Annual meetings with partners Meetings to be organised in connection
with the international conferences.
• Advisory Board The research programme will establish an Advisory Board
drawing its members from government administration, industry (energy
and fisheries) and the military.
• Reference Group The programme will establish close cooperation with
the Norwegian Research Council’s Reference Group and present yearly
results of the programme activities.
Overall, the programme will put energy into establishing a pool of competence
on a wide spectrum of High North issues that can serve Norwegian authori-
ties and other interested groups. The website, the international network, the
Advisory Board and the Reference Group will all be part of this effort. The aim
is not only to produce new knowledge, but to establish arenas and channels to
make this information available to interested groups and the society at large.
The researchers will write articles for the daily press, supply media comments
on demand, participate in the general public debate, teach at colleges and uni-
versities, and participate in conferences organised by other actors. The pool of
expertise and the international network garnered by the programme will be of
value for many years to come.


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Geopolitics in

the High North

A five-year (2008–2012) research programme financed

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The Department of Political Science of the University of Oslo (UiO)

The Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI)

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The Departments of History and Political Science and the Faculty of

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin

Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)

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Professor Clive Archer, Manchester Metropolitan University

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• Actors and patterns of cooperation and conflict (Work Package 1)

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Responsible: Professor Rolf Tamnes, IFS

The following research problems will be covered:

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Status of research: There is a profound lack of research on the totality of actor

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Responsible: Senior Fellow Sven G. Holtsmark, IFS

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The Work Package will include the following major projects:

• A broad synthesising monograph on Russian-Norwegian relations, 1917–

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Responsible: Senior Fellow Julianne Smith, CSIS

The following main research problems will be addressed:

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• Secure access to energy is of vital importance to the United States. In the

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Responsible: Dr Andreas Maurer, SWP

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The Work Package will include three major projects:

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Responsible: Professor Dag Harald Claes, UiO

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• We need a better understanding of how the Arctic compares with other

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Responsible: Professor Alf Håkon Hoel, UiTø

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Responsible: Senior Fellow Olav Schram Stokke, FNI

The assessment rests on three pillars:

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Throughout the studies, implications for Norwegian interests are discussed.

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Responsible: Senior Fellow Paal Sigurd Hilde, IFS

The following main research problems will be addressed, based on findings

Traditionally, Norwegian authorities have emphasised the following catego-

• Protection of national sovereignty, jurisdiction and exclusive rights. Norwe-

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Status of research: There is a substantial body of research on how these inter-

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The programme will contribute to: