18 septembre 2018 www.silatendancesemaintient.

ca
www.tooclosetocall.ca
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
% 30.5 21.0 28.9 15.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 -
sièges 50 20 49 6 0 0 0 0
Chances de gagner* 45.2% 0.3% 51.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chances d'une majorité 1.2% 0.0% 3.7% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
Abitibi-Est 30.5% 26.2% 26.0% 15.3% 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 60% 20% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 27.9% 30.6% 23.4% 17.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 33% 58% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Acadie 61.0% 7.6% 14.5% 12.7% 2.9% 0.9% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 40.3% 17.2% 20.9% 18.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 27.2% 27.6% 31.3% 10.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.5% 22% 23% 55% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 23.5% 11.1% 50.5% 10.4% 1.4% 2.8% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 28.9% 3.5% 55.7% 8.0% 0.3% 3.2% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Sud 44.3% 1.4% 42.6% 7.2% 0.3% 3.9% 0.4% 59% 0% 41% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauharnois 18.9% 34.2% 30.1% 12.9% 1.8% 1.7% 0.4% 1% 70% 29% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 40.2% 9.9% 38.3% 8.0% 0.3% 3.0% 0.4% 59% 0% 41% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Berthier 9.2% 33.8% 38.8% 15.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 27% 73% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bertrand 14.5% 31.5% 35.1% 16.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 32% 68% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Blainville 20.4% 23.9% 41.0% 12.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0% 1% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 32.9% 40.6% 10.1% 15.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 17% 83% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Borduas 13.3% 27.5% 40.7% 16.2% 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0% 4% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 50.1% 13.3% 16.6% 17.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget 19.8% 31.1% 23.6% 22.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.5% 3% 78% 12% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 29.7% 16.1% 36.9% 15.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 19% 0% 81% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 12.9% 28.6% 41.8% 13.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 26.9% 24.5% 35.2% 11.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 12% 5% 83% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 44.3% 13.3% 23.4% 15.6% 2.8% 0.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 30.9% 16.2% 38.0% 11.6% 0.5% 2.5% 0.4% 17% 0% 83% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 25.0% 31.1% 29.9% 11.0% 0.5% 2.2% 0.4% 9% 52% 39% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 39.7% 18.6% 27.4% 11.8% 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 94% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 29.7% 5.4% 47.8% 7.4% 0.5% 8.7% 0.4% 1% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chicoutimi 23.5% 32.5% 23.7% 17.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 9% 81% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 65.4% 7.6% 18.6% 6.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 22.4% 11.6% 52.4% 9.8% 0.3% 3.2% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 34.0% 17.8% 32.4% 12.1% 0.3% 3.0% 0.4% 57% 0% 43% 0% 0% 0% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 77.0% 0.0% 8.6% 9.5% 3.4% 1.0% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 15.3% 27.6% 42.3% 12.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 16.2% 22.0% 46.7% 12.8% 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 30.9% 28.1% 26.2% 13.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 55% 28% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 28.5% 35.2% 19.9% 15.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 18% 81% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 44.7% 17.3% 25.2% 9.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 24.3% 47.3% 12.1% 15.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gatineau 45.8% 13.5% 23.6% 16.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 8.5% 13.7% 9.4% 64.4% 3.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Granby 9.5% 16.8% 59.5% 12.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 20.1% 25.8% 38.8% 13.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1% 4% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 9.4% 28.8% 16.5% 42.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0% 7% 0% 93% 0% 0% 0%
Hull 43.0% 16.9% 18.7% 20.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Huntingdon 37.3% 15.4% 31.3% 13.1% 0.8% 1.5% 0.4% 78% 0% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 16.4% 25.8% 41.3% 14.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 39.8% 35.1% 8.9% 15.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 72% 28% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 69.9% 0.0% 13.3% 9.3% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 23.9% 22.5% 29.9% 20.5% 0.6% 2.3% 0.4% 15% 9% 73% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 67.3% 3.0% 12.5% 14.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 36.1% 21.1% 23.5% 15.2% 1.7% 1.9% 0.4% 96% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Johnson 15.8% 26.4% 41.4% 14.2% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 9.1% 38.4% 34.4% 15.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0% 68% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 17.7% 35.3% 32.0% 14.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 66% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 14.1% 39.1% 28.9% 15.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 19.5% 36.7% 26.7% 15.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.5% 1% 90% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 62.3% 5.2% 15.0% 15.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 24.2% 8.5% 53.8% 10.1% 0.5% 2.6% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 51.0% 7.7% 27.7% 11.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 40.3% 17.0% 25.0% 13.8% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Prairie 23.9% 21.9% 39.8% 12.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 2% 1% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 0.8% 26.6% 58.2% 12.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 32.8% 10.7% 12.3% 40.8% 2.4% 0.3% 0.6% 20% 0% 0% 80% 0% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 35.1% 28.1% 24.9% 9.2% 2.1% 0.2% 0.4% 76% 17% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 28.7% 24.9% 31.7% 12.4% 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 30% 10% 60% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 7.8% 30.8% 44.8% 13.9% 1.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 4% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 25.6% 13.0% 46.6% 11.1% 1.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 33.6% 13.6% 39.1% 9.9% 0.3% 3.2% 0.4% 25% 0% 75% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Louis-Hébert 24.3% 16.5% 46.0% 8.9% 1.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 56.9% 11.1% 16.4% 10.6% 3.6% 0.9% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 16.0% 36.2% 25.4% 17.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0% 92% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marquette 42.5% 13.5% 23.0% 14.2% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 28.6% 22.1% 35.4% 12.4% 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 18% 1% 80% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 7.6% 29.3% 48.3% 12.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 12.8% 55.8% 16.1% 14.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 28.8% 25.4% 17.9% 24.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.5% 56% 25% 1% 17% 0% 0% 0%
Mégantic 31.6% 25.0% 28.0% 13.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 63% 11% 27% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercier 17.3% 13.5% 12.2% 54.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 41.7% 22.1% 25.3% 8.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 97% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 8.7% 29.7% 47.1% 12.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 21.8% 21.6% 42.1% 12.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 1% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 26.4% 16.3% 39.5% 12.0% 1.6% 3.9% 0.4% 3% 0% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 53.6% 8.2% 15.3% 17.3% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 67.7% 3.6% 16.2% 6.4% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 18.7% 18.1% 45.4% 15.2% 0.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 65.2% 1.6% 11.6% 13.6% 6.6% 0.9% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 31.5% 22.8% 27.6% 16.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 68% 6% 26% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Papineau 39.6% 19.4% 24.0% 15.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 97% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 14.2% 33.2% 29.5% 20.1% 2.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0% 68% 31% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 61.5% 3.8% 17.7% 15.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 32.9% 10.9% 42.3% 10.5% 0.5% 2.5% 0.4% 11% 0% 89% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Prévost 13.7% 29.0% 40.6% 14.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 21.2% 44.8% 19.6% 13.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 12.2% 29.0% 43.9% 12.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0% 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 16.9% 31.2% 36.0% 12.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0% 27% 73% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 27.0% 23.0% 32.0% 14.6% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 22% 5% 72% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rimouski 20.6% 35.8% 21.2% 21.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2% 94% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 41.9% 18.7% 22.9% 15.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 75.2% 0.0% 11.4% 8.3% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 44.8% 29.0% 13.8% 11.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 97% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 20.8% 32.3% 14.3% 29.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.5% 2% 67% 0% 31% 0% 0% 0%
Rousseau 4.4% 34.0% 45.9% 13.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0% 8% 92% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue27.4% 27.8% 24.2% 19.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 40% 42% 16% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-François 29.7% 28.5% 22.5% 16.1% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 54% 40% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 41.3% 18.3% 16.1% 18.1% 4.5% 1.3% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 18.7% 24.1% 39.9% 14.7% 0.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 18.5% 26.6% 38.1% 14.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0% 6% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 9.7% 33.9% 39.9% 13.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 24% 76% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 63.7% 0.7% 17.0% 12.5% 3.5% 2.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 20.1% 20.4% 12.2% 44.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 33.0% 24.1% 32.2% 9.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 52% 4% 44% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 16.1% 30.3% 38.9% 12.0% 0.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0% 14% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 27.5% 26.5% 22.1% 21.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.4% 49% 37% 9% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Soulanges 40.8% 19.2% 26.6% 11.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 20.7% 29.0% 31.2% 17.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 3% 37% 60% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 26.4% 21.6% 17.8% 31.1% 0.6% 2.0% 0.4% 26% 5% 1% 68% 0% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 11.7% 31.6% 42.0% 12.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0% 10% 90% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 29.0% 23.6% 30.4% 14.8% 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 39% 7% 53% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ungava 32.3% 29.1% 23.9% 13.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 63% 30% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vachon 23.5% 28.5% 32.6% 13.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 6% 27% 66% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 33.3% 13.5% 38.2% 11.4% 0.5% 2.6% 0.4% 26% 0% 75% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vaudreuil 49.0% 12.7% 23.7% 10.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 9.7% 37.8% 37.4% 13.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0% 52% 48% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 39.4% 19.6% 17.3% 17.6% 4.4% 1.2% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Viau 52.0% 9.1% 13.7% 22.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vimont 41.9% 20.0% 27.0% 8.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 64.3% 0.0% 15.4% 13.5% 5.4% 0.9% 0.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges

Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)