Ekonomie 144 / Economics 144

Makro-ekonomie / Macroeconomics

1
 Welkom / Welcome
• Admin
• Rekenaartoetse op WebStudies / Computer tests
on WebStudies
• Ekonomie 144 tutoriale / Economics 144 tutorials
• Jong Ekonoom kompetisie / Young economist
competition
• Inleiding tot Makro-ekonomie / Introduction to
Macroeconomics
• Arnold, Hfst 6 / Arnold, Ch 6
2
 Admin
• Ekonomie 144 module sameroeper /
Economics 144 module coordinator:
Me / Ms Liezl Nieuwoudt
Schumann 514
Lnieuw@sun.ac.za

• Dosent / Lecturer:

Schumann
@sun.ac.za
3
 Admin (vervolg / continues)
• Die Ekonomie departement se Geelboekie is beskikbaar op
WebStudies (http://webstudies2.sun.ac.za). Maak asseblief
seker dat u kennis neem van die eksamentoelatingsvereistes
van hierdie module. / The Economics department’s Yellow
booklet is available on WebStudies
(http://webstudies2.sun.ac.za). Please make sure that you
familiarise yourself with the examination admission
requirements for this module.

• Voorgeskrewe handboek / Prescribed textbook

Arnold, R.A. (2012). Macroeconomics. Stellenbosch University
Second Custom Edition. Hampshire: Cengage Learning EMEA
4
 Admin (vervolg / continues)
• Arnold, Hoofstukke 1 en 2 is vir selfstudie. Beide
hoofstukke is ingesluit in Toets 1 (word geskryf op
Maandag, 19 Augustus 2013). / Arnold, Chapters 1 and
2 are for self study. Both chapters are included in Test 1
(written on Monday, 19 August 2013).

5
 Rekenaartoetse op WebStudies /
Computer tests on WebStudies
• Vorm deel van hersiening en self-assessering. / Forms
part of revision and self-assessment.
• Nie verpligtend nie, maar dosente kan wel sien watter
studente die rekenaartoetse voltooi het. / Not
compulsory, but lecturers can see which students
completed the computer tests.
• Help met voorbereiding vir multikeuse vrae in toetse en
eksamens. / Helps to prepare for multiple choice
questions in tests and examinations.

6
 Ekonomie 144 tutoriale
Tutoriaalklasse begin op Maandag 5 Augustus 2013

• Tutoriaalbywoning is aanvanklik vrywillig, totdat Toets 1

(wat op Maandag, 19 Augustus 2013 geskryf word) se
uitslae bekend gemaak word. Daarna word
tutoriaalbywoning verpligtend vir sekere studente.

7
 Verpligte tutoriale
• Alle studente wat:

– nie Toets 1 skryf nie, OF

– Toets 1 skryf, maar minder as 50% kry vir die toets,
moet verpligte tutoriale bywoon.

• Daar is sewe weke van verpligte tutoriale en studente

moet al sewe verpligte tutoriale bywoon om te voldoen
aan die verpligte tutoriaalbywoningsvereiste.

8
 Ekonomie 144 tutoriale (vervolg)
• Registrasie vir ’n tutoriaalgroep
Woon asseblief dieselfde tutoriaalklas by as die een waarvoor u in die eerste
semester geregistreer was (m.a.w. u woon die klas by waar u naam en
besonderhede op die tutor se bywoningslys gedruk is).

Let asseblief op dat die meeste tutoriaalklasse se lokale verander het. Die
tweede semester se lokaalinligting is reeds gelaai op die Ekonomie departement
se webblad (www.ekon.sun.ac.za) (waar u vir ’n tutoriaalklas geregistreer het) en
ook op die Ekonomie 144 bladsy op WebStudies (onder die “Tutoriale/Tutorials”
opskrif) (http://webstudies2.sun.ac.za).

• Indien u weens ’n roosterbotsing nie meer die tutoriaalklas kan bywoon

waarvoor u in die eerste semester geregistreer was nie, stuur asseblief u rooster
aan ekontuts@sun.ac.za met ’n versoek om verskuif te word na ’n ander
tutoriaalgroep.

9
 Ekonomie 144 tutoriale (vervolg)
• Indien u nie in die eerste semester geregistreer was vir ’n
tutoriaalgroep nie, moet u asseblief eers registreer vir ’n
tutoriaalgroep voordat u begin om die tutoriaalklasse by te
woon.

• Stap-vir-stap instruksies oor die registrasieproses is

beskikbaar op WebStudies (http://webstudies2.sun.ac.za) op
die Ekonomie 144 bladsy onder die “Tutoriale/Tutorials”
opskrif. Studente registreer vir ’n tutoriaalgroep op die
Ekonomie departement se webblad (www.ekon.sun.ac.za).

10
 Ekonomie 144 tutoriale (vervolg)
• Navrae oor die tutoriaalprogram? Raadpleeg asseblief:

– Die Ekonomie departement se Geelboekie.

– Die inligtingstuk oor die tutoriaalprogram onder die
“Tutoriale/Tutorials” opskrif op die Ekonomie 144 bladsy op
WebStudies (http://webstudies2.sun.ac.za).
– Die dokument met stap-vir-stap instruksies om vir ’n
tutoriaalgroep te registreer.

Indien u verdere navrae het wat nie deur die Geelboekie of

inligtingstukke beantwoord word nie, stuur asseblief ’n e-
pos met u navraag aan ekontuts@sun.ac.za
11
 Economics 144 tutorials
Tutorial classes commence on Monday 5 August 2013

• Tutorial attendance is initially voluntary, until the results

of Test 1 (that is written on Monday, 19 August 2013) are
released. Thereafter, tutorial attendance become
compulsory for certain students.

12
 Compulsory tutorials
• All students that:

– do not write Test 1, OR

– writes Test 1, but obtains less than 50% in the test,
must attend compulsory tutorials.

• There are seven weeks of compulsory tutorials and

students must attend all seven compulsory tutorials to
meet the compulsory tutorial attendance requirement.

13
 Economics 144 tutorials (continues)
• Registration for a tutorial group
Please attend the same tutorial class that you were registered for in the
first semester (i.e. you must attend the class where your name and details
are printed on the tutor’s attendance register).

Please note that most of the tutorial classes’ venues have changed. The
second semester venue information has already been uploaded onto the
Economics department’s website (www.ekon.sun.ac.za) where you
registered for a tutorial class and also on the Economics 144 page on
WebStudies (under the “Tutoriale/Tutorials” heading.

• If you are unable to attend the tutorial class you were registered for in the
first semester due to a timetable clash, please e-mail your timetable to
ekontuts@sun.ac.za with a request to be moved to a different tutorial
group.
14
 Economics 144 tutorials (continues)
• If you were not registered for a tutorial group in the first
semester, you must please register for a tutorial group
before you start attending tutorial classes.

• Step-by-step instructions of the registration process are

available on WebStudies (http://webstudies2.sun.ac.za) on
the Economics 144 page under the “Tutoriale/Tutorials”
heading. Students register for a tutorial group on the
Economics department’s website (www.ekon.sun.ac.za).

15
 Economics 144 tutorials (continues)
• Enquiries about the tutorial programme? Please consult:

– The Economics department’s Yellow booklet.

– The information document on the tutorial programme
under the “Tutoriale/Tutorials” heading on the Economics
144 page on WebStudies (http://webstudies2.sun.ac.za).
– The document with step-by-step instructions to register for
a tutorial group.

If you have further enquiries that are not answered by the

Yellow booklet or information documents, please send an e-
mail with your enquiry to ekontuts@sun.ac.za
16
Die Burger Young Economist
of the Year Competition
Explore the world of the economist and test your
skills at predicting key economic variables
• Choose a team of 2

• Register as soon as possible!

• Do the 4 forecasts: 16 Aug, 23 Aug,13 Sept & 20 Sept

by 14:00

• For each forecast write a short motivation

Maties forecasters
VS
Ikeys forecasters
Forecast and WIN
Prizes

Plus trophies

Maties forecasters
VS
Ikeys forecasters
Do I need ‘inside info’?

"In a classic study some years ago, the Economist

magazine found that refuse collectors were consistently
the best forecasters in the UK. This may be due to the fact
that refuse collectors can easily tell whether times are
good or bad by what people throw away. In that respect
they are far more ‘hands on’ than either fund managers
or economists”
 Submission
Variables date

Rand/Dollar exchange rate on 23 August 2013 at 16:00

Rand/Euro exchange rate on 23 August 2013 at 16:00

First 16 August
submission Year-on-year CPI inflation for July 2013 2013 at 14:00

Rand/Dollar exchange rate on 30 August 2013 at 16:00

Rand/Euro exchange rate on 30 August 2013 at 16:00

Real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2013, expressed on an annualised
rate
Second 23 August
submission Year-on-year PPI inflation for July 2013 2013 at 14:00

Rand/Dollar exchange rate on 20 September 2013 at 16:00

Rand/Euro exchange rate on 20 September 2013 at 16:00

13
Repo rate to be announced on 19 September 2013
Third September
submission Year-on-year CPI inflation for August 2013 2013 at 14:00

Rand/Dollar exchange rate on 27 September 2013 at 16:00

20
Rand/Euro exchange rate on 27 September 2013 at 16:00
Fourth September
submission Year-on-year PPI inflation for August 2013 2013 at 14:00
But where do I start?

Get ‘hands on’…

Maties forecasters
VS
Ikeys forecasters
 Inleiding tot Makro-ekonomie /
Introduction to Macroeconomics

24
 Makro-ekonomie? / Macroeconomics?
In die 1ste semester: Mikroekonomie / NOU / NOW:
In the 1st semester: Microeconomics

Fokus op ondernemings, individue, spesifieke Fokus op prysvlak en reële BBP. / Focus on price
markte en ewewigsprys en -hoeveelheid van een level and real GDP.
produk op ’n slag. / Focus on firms, individuals,
specific markets and equilibrium price and
quantity of one good at a time.
25
 Wat is die prysvlak? /
What is the price level?
• Geweegde gemiddelde van • Weighted average of the
die pryse van alle goedere en prices of all goods and
dienste … services …

• Hoe dink julle meet ons • How do you think we

die prysvlak? measure the price level?
– Dink bietjie hieroor na … – Think about this …

26
 Wat is reële BBP? /
What is real GDP?
• Totale markwaarde van alle • Total market value of all final
finale goedere en dienste wat goods and services produced
binne ’n sekere tydperk within a specific period
(gewoonlik 1 jaar) binne die (usually 1 year) within the
grense van ’n land borders of a country.
geproduseer is.
• Real GDP is measured in
• Reële BBP word in konstante constant prices.
pryse gemeet.
• What does this mean?
• Wat beteken dit?

27
Dink so daaroor …
Gestel ons ekonomie produseer slegs fietse. In jaar 1 word daar 3 fietse geproduseer wat elk
R1 000 werd is.
Die totale waarde van produksie is:

Gestel in jaar 2, styg nominale BBP na R3 600. Beteken dit noodwendig dat daar meer fietse
geproduseer is in jaar 2?
’n Ontleding van die produksiesyfers toon dat daar in jaar 2 slegs 3 fietse geproduseer is,
maar dat die prys per fiets gestyg het na R1 200 elk.
Dus:

Wat het dus in werklikheid gebeur?

Om reële BBP te bereken, moet ons die waarde van totale produksie meet in basisperiode
pryse (of konstante pryse). Deur dit te doen, verwyder ons die effek van prysstygings
(inflasie) en enige toename in reële BBP dui dan slegs op ’n toename in hoeveelheid
geproduseer. Veronderstel jaar 1 is ons basisperiode.
Reële BBP in jaar 1 =
Reële BBP in jaar 2 =

28
Think about it …
Suppose our economy produces only bicycles. In year 1, a total of 3 bicycles are produced
that is worth R1 000 each.
The total value of production is:

Suppose in year 2, nominal GDP rises to R3 600. Does this necessarily mean that more
bicycles were produced in year 2?
An analysis of the production figures show that in year 2, only 3 bicycles were produced, but
that the price of bicycles increased to R1 200 each.
Therefore:
What therefore happened in reality?
To calculate real GDP, we must measure the value of total production in base period prices
(or constant prices). By doing this, we remove the effect of price increases (inflation) and any
increase in real GDP then only indicates an increase in the quantity produced. Suppose year
1 is our base period.
Real GDP in year 1 =
Real GDP in year 2 =

29
 Waaroor handel Arnold, Hfst 6? /
What is Arnold, Ch 6 about?
• Hfst 6 stel twee belangrike • Ch 6 introduces two important
ekonomiese maatstawwe economic measurements, i.e.
bekend, nl.
– Prices (and the price level)
– Pryse (en die prysvlak) – The unemployment rate (to
– Die werkloosheidskoers (om die determine the extent of
omvang van werkloosheid in die unemployment in the economy)
ekonomie te bepaal)

Waarom wil ekonome hierdie maatstawwe gebruik? /

Why do economists want to use these measurements?

30
 Ekonome gebruik hierdie maatstawwe om … /
Economists use these measurements to …
• te bepaal hoe gesond die • determine how healthy the
ekonomie is en of die makro- economy is and whether the
ekonomiese doelstellings macroeconomic goals are
bereik word. achieved.

Makro-ekonomiese doelstellings? /
Macroeconomic goals?

31
 5 makro-ekonomiese doelstellings

Volle
Ekonomiese Prys-
indiens- Betalings- Regverdige
groei stabiliteit
name balans- en verdeling
(lae
(lae wisselkoers- van
BBP, BNP, inflasie-
werkloos- stabiliteit inkome
ens. koers)
heidskoers)

Hoofstuk 7 Hoofstuk 6 32
 5 macroeconomic goals

Balance of
Full Price
Economic Payments
employ- stability Fair
growth &
ment (low (low distribution
exchange
unemploy- inflation of income
GDP, GNP, etc. rate
ment rate) rate)
stability

Chapter 7 Chapter 6 33
 “Sterk groei sal verder versnel”
(http://www.dieburger.com/sake/2013-05-06-sterk-groei-sal-verder-versnel: 6 Mei 2013)

“Werksyfers wek kommer”

(http://www.dieburger.com/sake/2013-05-06-werksyfers-wek-kommer: 6 Mei 2013)

“Inflasieverwagting bly 6% vir 2013”

(http://www.dieburger.com/sake/2013-04-23-inflasieverwagting-bly-6-vir-2013: 23 April 2013)

“Rand sink tot swakste vlak sedert 2009”

(http://www.dieburger.com/sake/2013-05-20-rand-bly-diep-in-die-moeilikheid: 20 Mei 2013 )

“SA moet nóú hervorm, maan IMF-hoë”

(http://www.dieburger.com/sake/2013-05-08-sa-moet-n-hervorm-maan-imf-ho: 8 Mei 2013 )
34
“SA economic growth lagging behind: IMF”
(http://www.timeslive.co.za/local/2013/04/17/sa-economic-growth-lagging-behind-imf: 17 April 2013 )

“Cosatu shocked by jobless rate”

(http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Cosatu-shocked-by-jobless-rate-20130508: 8 May 2013 )

“Inflation may breach target, says Cassim”

(http://www.bdlive.co.za/economy/2013/04/10/inflation-may-breach-target-says-cassim: 10 April 2013 )

“Rand continues to slide on labour outlook”

(http://www.fin24.com/Markets/Currencies/Rand-continues-to-slide-on-labour-outlook-20130521: 21 May 2013)

“SA must fight inequality, warns analyst ”

(http://www.fin24.com/Economy/SA-must-fight-inequality-warns-analyst-20130225: 25 February 2013)
35
 ’n Vraag … Dink solank hieroor na /
A question … Think about this so long
• Waarom dink u het lande “prysstabiliteit” (’n lae
inflasiekoers) as een van hulle makro-ekonomiese
doelstellings? M.a.w. waarom behoort lande
bekommerd te wees indien hulle gekonfronteer
word deur relatief hoë inflasie? / Why do you think
countries have “price stability” (a low inflation
rate) as one of their macroeconomic goals? In
other words, why should countries be concerned
when they are faced with relatively high inflation?

36
 Nog ’n vraag / Another question
Star Wars Episode IV – A new hope (1977) Avatar (2009)

Totale inkome verdien in die VSA: Totale inkome verdien in die VSA:
$460 935 665 (1977) $760 505 847 (2009)

Van watter fliek sou u graag die direkteur wou wees? /

Which movie would you have liked to be the director of?37
 Makro-ekonomiese meting, Deel I:
Pryse en werkloosheid /
Macroeconomic measurements, Part I:
Prices and unemployment

Arnold, Hfst 6 pp. 117-131

Arnold, Ch 6 pp. 117-131
38
 Pryse (en die prysvlak) /
Prices (and the price level)

Arnold, Hfst 6 pp. 117-123

Arnold, Ch 6 pp. 117-123
39
 Hoe word die prysvlak gemeet? /
How is the price level measured? p. 117
• Prysindeks • Price index
– Een van die belangrikste – One of the major price indices is the
prysindekse is die consumer price index (CPI)
verbruikersprysindeks (VPI)

Based on a representative group of

Gebaseer op goods and services (market basket)
verteenwoordigende groep van purchased by a typical household.
goedere en dienste
(markmandjie) wat deur tipiese
In SA: The official CPI is the headline
huishouding gekoop word. CPI for all urban areas (estimated
and published on a monthly basis by

In SA: Die amptelike VPI is die StatsSA).
hooflyn VPI vir alle stedelike
gebiede (beraam en maandeliks
gepubliseer deur StatsSA).

Die VPI markmandjie in SA /

The CPI market basket in SA:
40
 Die VPI markmandjie /
The CPI market basket
• Hoe bepaal StatsSA die inhoud van
die markmandjie en die gewig van
elke komponent in die mandjie?

Hulle gebruik die Inkomste-en-
uitgawe peiling (tans word die
2010/2011 peiling gebruik).

Die peiling gee ’n aanduiding van
watter goedere en dienste tipies
gekoop word en ook watter goedere
en dienste as die belangrikste beskou
word (belangriker goedere en dienste
moet ’n groter gewig dra in die
mandjie).

In 2013 word daar 393 goedere en
dienste ingesluit in die nasionale VPI
markmandjie (die VPI word ook vir
groot dorpe en stede, kleiner dorpe
en vir landelike gebiede in provinsies
bereken).
• How does StatsSA determine the
content of the market basket and the
weight of each component in the
basket?

They use the Income & Expenditure
survey (currently the 2010/2011 survey
is used).

The survey gives an indication of which
goods and services are typically bought
and also which goods and services are
regarded as being most important (the
more important goods and services
should carry a bigger weight in the
basket).

In 2013, a total of 393 goods and
services are included in the national CPI
market basket (the CPI is also calculated
for large towns and cities, smaller towns
and for rural areas in provinces). 41
 ’n Ander belangrike prysindeks in SA /
Another important price index in SA
• Die produsenteprysindeks (PPI) • The producer price index (PPI)
– Die PPI word gedefinieer as “’n maatstaf – The PPI is defined as “A measure of the
van die verandering in die pryse van change in the prices of goods either as
goedere soos wat hulle hul plek van they leave their place of production or
produksie verlaat of soos wat hulle die as they enter the production process
produksieproses binnekom” (OECD). (OECD).”
• Bv. ingevoerde goedere se pryse word • E.g. imported goods’ prices are
gemeet wanneer dit die land binnekom, measured when they enter the country,
vervaardigde goedere se pryse word manufactured goods’ prices are
gemeet wanneer dit die fabriek verlaat. measured when they leave the factory).
– Sluit kapitaal- en intermediêre goedere – Includes capital and intermediate goods
in (uitgesluit by VPI), sluit BTW uit (excluded from CPI), excludes VAT
(ingesluit by VPI) en sluit dienste uit (included in CPI) and excludes services
(ingesluit by VPI). (included in CPI).

• Gestel daar is ’n skerp styging in die • Suppose there is a sharp increase in

PPI, ceteris paribus. Wat verwag u sal the PPI, ceteris paribus. What do you
waarskynlik met die VPI gebeur oor expect will probably happen to the
’n paar maande? CPI in a few months’ time?
42
43
Berekening van die prysvlak (m.b.v. die VPI) & belangrikheid van die
basisperiode / Computing the price level (by using the CPI) & the
importance of the base period pp117-119

• Pryse word gemeet relatief • Prices are measured relative to

tot pryse in ’n basisperiode prices in a base period (p. 118).
(p.118).

Wat is die waarde van die VPI in die basisperiode? Verduidelik u

antwoord. Wat beteken dit indien die VPI in daaropvolgende
periodes hoër is as in die basisperiode? / What is the value of the CPI
in the base period? Explain your answer. What does it mean if the CPI
in the following periods is higher than in the base period? 44
45
 VPI in SA / CPI in SA

Tans is die basisperiode
Currently the base period is
Desember 2012 December 2012

VPI data word uitgereik in die
CPI data is released in SARB’s
SARB se Kwartaalblad Quarterly Bulletin

Algehele prysvlak (soos
General price level (as measured
gemeet deur ’n prysindeks, die by a price index, the CPI) has
VPI) het elke jaar gestyg. risen every year.

46
Bron / Source: Consumer price index – Headline index values – December 2012 = 100. StatsSA (www.statssa.gov.za)
 Van pryse na inflasie … Wat is inflasie? /
From prices to inflation … What is inflation?

47
 Van pryse na inflasie … Wat is inflasie? /
From prices to inflation … What is inflation?

Inflasie is ’n volgehoue
Inflation is a continued
styging in die algehele increase in the general
prysvlak. price level.

Hoe meet ons nou weer
How do we measure the
die prysvlak? price level again?

Met behulp van ’n
With a price index.
prysindeks.
For example?

Byvoorbeeld? o The CPI
o Die VPI

So if the CPI continually

So indien die VPI aanhou increases, it indicates
styg, dui dit op inflasie. inflation.
48
 Berekening van die VPI inflasiekoers /
Computing the CPI inflation rate

• Inflasiekoers is die groeikoers van ’n prysindeks (p. 119)

• Inflation rate is the growth rate of a price index (pg. 119)

49
 VPI: Indekssyfers en jaar-op-jaar koerse /
CPI: Index numbers and year-on-year rates

Bron / Source: Consumer Price Index. Stats SA. April 2013, p. 4

• Belangrik: verskil tussen jaar-op-jaar koerse en maand-op-maand koerse. /

Important: the difference between year-on-year rates and month-on-month rates.

50
 Maand-op-maand vs jaar-op-jaar VPI inflasiekoerse /
Month-on-month vs year-on-year CPI inflation rates
• Maand-op-maand koers / Month-on-month rate
Bereken die VPI inflasiekoers deur die VPI in een maand te vergelyk
met die VPI in die vorige maand. Bv. bereken met hoeveel die VPI
gestyg het vanaf Maart 2013 tot April 2013. / Calculate the CPI
inflation rate by comparing the CPI in one month with the CPI in the
previous month. E.g. calculate by how much the CPI increased from
March 2013 to April 2013.

• Jaar-op-jaar koers / Year-on-year rate

Bereken die VPI inflasiekoers deur die VPI in een maand te vergelyk
met die VPI in dieselfde maand in die vorige jaar. Bv. bereken met
hoeveel die VPI gestyg het vanaf Maart 2012 tot Maart 2013. /
Calculate the CPI inflation rate by comparing the CPI in one month
with the CPI in the same month in the previous year. E.g. calculate by
how much the CPI increased from March 2012 to March 2013. 51
 Waar word data oor SA se inflasiekoers en
werkloosheidsvlak gepubliseer? / Where are data on SA’s
inflation rate and unemployment level published?

Statistiek Suid-Africa (o.a. inflasie & werkloosheidsinligting) /

Statistics South Africa (amongst others inflation & unemployment info)
www.statssa.gov.za

Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank (SARB) (o.a. inflasie inligting) /

South African Reserve Bank (SARB) (amongst others inflation info)
www.reservebank.co.za

52
 Die VPI inflasiekoers: ’n Voorbeeld /
The CPI inflation rate: An example

• Indien die jaar-op-jaar VPI inflasiekoers in April 2013

5,9% was, wat beteken dit? Beteken dit dat al die items in
die VPI markmandjie se pryse met 5,9% gestyg het van
April 2012 tot April 2013? / If the year-on-year CPI inflation
rate was 5,9% in April 2013, what does this mean? Does it
mean that the prices of all the items in the CPI market
basket increased by 5,9% from April 2012 to April 2013?

53
Bron / Source: Consumer Price Index. StatsSA. April 2013, p. 5

54
 SA VPI inflasiekoers (1947-1997): jaar-op-jaar % verandering in die
gemiddelde jaarlikse VPI / SA CPI inflation rate (1947-1997): year-on-
year % change in the average annual CPI

Bron / Source: Smal, M.M. (1998). The cost of inflation. 55

http://www.resbank.co.za/Lists/News%20and%20Publications/Attachments/4802/Article%20-%20The%20cost%20of%20inflation.pdf
 SA VPI inflasiekoerstendense (2003-Sep 2012) /
SA CPI inflation rate trends (2003-Sept 2012)

Bron / Source: Monetary Policy Review. SARB. May 2012 56

 Hooflyn VPI indekssyfers en –inflasiekoers: 2008 – Apr 2012 /
Headline CPI index numbers and inflation rate: 2010 – Apr 2012

Waarom dink u het inflasiedruk in so ’n mate toegeneem in SA dat die VPI

inflasiekoers teen einde 2011 tot bokant die teikenband van 3-6% gestyg het? / Why
do you think inflation pressure in SA has increased to such an extent that the CPI
inflation rate has increased to above the target band of 3-6% at the end of 2011?

57
Bron / Source: Consumer Price Index. Stats SA. April 2013, p. 4
 Waarom dink u het lande “prysstabiliteit” as een van die makro-
ekonomiese doelstellings? Watter impak het inflasie op mense se
lewenspeil? / Why do you think countries have “price stability” as one of
their macroeconomic goals? What is the impact of inflation on people’s
standard of living?

58
 Nominale inkome vs reële inkome /
Nominal income vs real income
• Nominale inkome verwys na • Nominal income refers to the
daardie inkome bedrag wat bv. op income amount that is printed on
jou loon- of salarisstrokie verskyn your wage or salary slip or that is
of in jou bankrekening in betaal paid into your bank account (i.e.
word (m.a.w. die fisiese bedrag the physical amount of money that
geld wat jy ontvang). you receive).
• Dit gee geensins ’n aanduiding • This does not give an indication of
van wat u alles kan koop met what you afford to buy with the
hierdie geld nie (m.a.w. die money (i.e. the purchasing power
koopkrag van die geld nie). of the money).
• Om dus te bepaal of u lewenspeil • Therefore, to determine whether
styg, daal of onveranderd bly na your standard of living has
’n loon- of salarisverhoging, moet increased, decreased or remain
u u reële inkome bereken. unchanged after a wage or salary
increase, you must calculate your
59
real income.
 Reële inkome / Real income
• Indien nominale inkome vinniger
styg as die VPI, styg reële inkome en
styg u lewenspeil, ceteris paribus.
• Indien die VPI vinniger styg as
nominale inkome, daal reële
inkome en daal u lewenspeil, ceteris
paribus.
• Indien nominale inkome en die VPI
met dieselfde % styg, bly reële
inkome onveranderd en u
lewenspeil word gehandhaaf, ceteris
paribus.
pp 119-120
• If nominal income increases faster
than the CPI, real income increases
and your standard of living rises,
ceteris paribus.
• If the CPI increases faster than
nominal income, real income
decreases and your standard of living
falls, ceteris paribus.
• If nominal income and the CPI
increases by the same %, real income
remains unchanged and your
standard of living is maintained,
ceteris paribus. 60
 Oefening
• Gestel u het in 2011 ’n jaarlikse salaris van R300 000 verdien en
einde 2011 is u in kennis gestel dat u in 2012 ’n jaarlikse salaris van
R360 000 sou verdien. In 2011 was die gemiddelde VPI 92,6 en in
2012 was dit 97,8.
Sou u tevrede gewees het met hierdie salarisverhoging? M.a.w.
sou u in 2012 beter af wees in reële terme?

61
U kon ook die volgende berekening doen as alternatief:

62
 Exercise
• Suppose your earned an annual salary of R300 000 in 2011 and at
the end of 2011 you were informed that in 2012 you would earn an
annual salary of R360 000. In 2011 the average CPI was 92,6 and in
2012 it was 97,8.
Would you have been satisfied with this salary increase? In other
words, would you have been better off (in real terms) in 2012?

63
You could also do the following calculation as alternative:

64
 Die vergelykbaarheid van twee verskillende jare se
inkome: ’n Illustrasie van die impak van inflasie oor tyd
(Lees asb. “economics 24/7” op p. 121) /
The comparability of two different years’ income: An
illustration of the impact of inflation over time (Please
read “economics 24/7” on p. 121)

• Volgens die VSA se ‘Box • According to the USA’s Box

Office’, beklee Avatar
(uitgereik in 2009) die
eerste posisie as die fliek
wat die hoogste totale
inkome in die VSA verdien
het, nl. $760 505 847.
Office, Avatar (that was
released in 2009) ranks in
the top position as the
movie that earned the
highest total income in the
USA, i.e. $760 505 847.
65
 Die vergelykbaarheid van twee verskillende jare se
inkome: ’n Illustrasie van die impak van inflasie oor tyd /
The comparability of two different years’ income: An
illustration of the impact of inflation over time p.121-123
• Aan die ander kant het Star • On the other hand, Star
Wars Episode IV – A new Wars Episode IV – A new
hope, wat in 1977 uitgereik hope, that was released in
is, ’n totale inkome van 1977, earned a total income
$460 935 665 verdien. of $460 935 665.
Van watter een van hierdie twee flieks sou u graag die
direkteur wou wees? (M.a.w. watter fliek sou vir u die
grootste inkome gee?) / Which one of these two movies
would you have preferred to be the director of? (I.e. which
movie would have earned you the highest income?) 66
 Die vergelykbaarheid van twee verskillende jare se
inkome: ’n Illustrasie van die impak van inflasie oor tyd /
The comparability of two different years’ income: An
illustration of the impact of inflation over time p.121-123
• Star Wars (1977) het • Star Wars (1977) earned
$460 935 665 verdien, terwyl $460 935 665, while Avatar
Avatar (2009) (2009) earned
$760 505 847 verdien het. $760 505 847.
• Dan maak dit mos sin om te • Then it surely makes sense to
kies om die direkteur van choose to be the director of
Avatar te wees (wat die meeste Avatar (that made the most
geld gemaak het). Reg? money). Right?

67
 Die vergelykbaarheid van twee verskillende jare se
inkome: ’n Illustrasie van die impak van inflasie oor tyd /
The comparability of two different years’ income: An
illustration of the impact of inflation over time p.121-123
• Onthou dat Star Wars se totale • Remember that Star Wars’s
inkome in 1977 dollarpryse total income is measured in
gemeet is, terwyl Avatar se 1977 dollar prices, whilst
totale inkome in 2009 Avatar’s total income is
dollarpryse gemeet is - dus kan measured in 2009 dollar prices –
ons nie die twee bedrae direk therefore we cannot directly
met mekaar vergelyk nie. compare these two figures.
• Ons moet die twee syfers in • We have to measure the two
dieselfde jaar se pryse meet om figures in the same year’s prices
hulle te vergelyk. to compare them.

68
Die vergelykbaarheid van twee verskillende jare se inkome: ’n
Illustrasie van die impak van inflasie oor tyd /
The comparability of two different years’ income: An
illustration of the impact of inflation over time pp.121-123
• Hoe om Star Wars se inkome • How to translate Star Wars’s
(wat in 1977 dollarpryse gemeet income (that is measured in 1977
is) om te skakel in 2009 dollar prices) into 2009 dollar
dollarpryse: prices:

69
 Inflasie / Inflation
19

-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
31
19
33
19
35
19
37
19
39
19
41
19
43
19
45
19
47
19
49
19
51
19
53

Deflasie / Deflation
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
Inflasie / Inflation

19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71

Jaartal / Years
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
Disinflasie / Disinflation

19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
Inflasie tendense / Inflation trends

19
97
19
99
20
01
70

20
03
 Werkloosheid /
Unemployment

Arnold, Hfst 6 pp. 123-129

Arnold, Ch 6 pp. 123-129
71
PMK / PPF

Enige punt OP die PMK =

Any point ON the PPF =

Waarom mik vir volle

indiensname? / Why
aim for full
employment?

72
 In die nuus: Werkloosheid /
In the news: Unemployment
Unemployment rises in first quarter
7 Mei/May 2013
Bron / Source: SAnews.gov.za (http://www.southafrica.info/business/economy/employment-070513.htm)

South Africa's unemployment rate rose to 25.2% in the first quarter of 2013 following a
decline in the fourth quarter of 2012, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported on Monday.

"Unemployment increased by 100 000 to 4.6-million resulting in an increase in the

unemployment rate to 25.2%," Stats SA's Kefiloe Masiteng said at the release of the latest
quarterly labour force survey …

The expanded unemployment rate stood at 36.7% in the first quarter, the highest it has been
since 2008 …

South Africa's economy lost about one-million jobs in the global recession; the country's
highest level of employment (before the recession), at 14-million, was seen in the fourth
quarter of 2008 …

73
Vraag: Wat is die negatiewe gevolge van hoë vlakke
van werkloosheid? /
Question: What are the negative consequences of
high levels of unemployment?

74
 Meting van werkloosheid (in Suid-Afrika) /
Measurement of unemployment (in South Africa)
• LW: Ons vervang pp. 123-125 • NB: We replace pp. 123-125
(tot net voor “Reasons for (to just before “Reasons for
unemployment”) met die Suid- unemployment”) with the
Afrikaanse definisies soos South African definitions, as
weergegee in hierdie given in this presentation.
aanbieding.
• In SA, unemployment (and other
• In SA word werkloosheid- (en relevant labour market statistics)
ander relevante are measured and published by
arbeidsmarkstatistieke) gemeet en Statistics SA.
gepubliseer deur Statistiek SA. – The data is collected by using the
Quarterly Labour force Survey.
– Hierdie data word ingevorder deur
gebruik te maak van die Kwartaalikse
Arbeidsmagpeiling (Quarterly Labour
force Survey).
75
Skematiese voorstelling: Meting van werkloosheid in SA

76
Breë arbeidsmag = Almal wat deel vorm van die werkende
ouderdomsbevolking (15-64 jr) wat WIL en KAN werk (dus word
ontmoedigde werksoekers ingesluit).

Wie is dan ekonomies onaktief volgens die breë definisie van die
arbeidsmag?
• Almal wat te jonk (<15jr) of te oud (>64jr) is om deel te wees van die werkende
ouderdomsbevolking + almal wat deel is van die werkende ouderdomsbevolking, maar wat
NIE WIL/NIE KAN werk nie.

Eng arbeidsmag = Almal wat deel vorm van die werkende

ouderdomsbevolking (15-64 jr) wat WIL en KAN werk en NIE ONTMOEDIG IS
NIE (dus word ontmoedigde werksoekers uitgesluit).

Wie is dan ekonomies onaktief volgens die eng definisie van die
arbeidsmag?
• Almal wat te jonk (<15jr) of te oud (>64jr) is om deel te wees van die werkende
ouderdomsbevolking + almal wat deel is van die werkende ouderdomsbevolking, maar wat
NIE WIL/NIE KAN werk nie + ontmoedigde werksoekers.
77
 Waar pas die volgende persone in?
• Huisvrouens
• Studente

78
Schematic presentation: Measurement of unemployment in SA

79
Broad labour force = Everyone who forms part of the working-age
population (aged 15-64 years) who are WILLING and ABLE to work
(discouraged work-seekers are therefore included).

Who are economically inactive according to the broad definition of the

labour force?
• Everyone who is either too young (<15 years) or too old (>64 years) to form part of the
working-age population + everyone who forms part of the working-age population but are
NOT WILLING/NOT ABLE to work.

Narrow labour force = Everyone who forms part of the working-age

population (aged 15-64 years) who are WILLING and ABLE to work and who
are NOT DISCOURAGED (discouraged work-seekers are therefore excluded).

Who are economically inactive according to the narrow definition of the

labour force?
• Everyone who is either too young (<15 years) or too old (>64 years) to form part of the
working-age population + everyone who forms part of the working-age population, but are
NOT WILLING/NOT ABLE to work + discouraged work-seekers.
80
 Where do the following persons fit in?
• Home-makers
• Students

81
 Meting van werkloosheid (in Suid-Afrika) /
Measurement of unemployment (in South Africa)

Wie word getel as werkend?
Who is counted as being
 Persone van die ouderdom 15-64 jr, wat employed?
deel vorm van die breë arbeidsmag  Persons aged 15-64 years, that form
(m.a.w. wil en kan werk) … part of the broad labour force (i.e.
 … wat vir ten minste 1 uur in die week that are willing and able to work) …
voor die onderhoud (die  … who performed work for pay,
“verwysingsweek”)… profit or family (e.g. subsistence
 … enige werk (vir betaling, wins of tot farming) …
voordeel van die huishouding – bv.  … for at least 1 hour in the week
boerdery vir eie gebruik) gedoen het … prior to the interview (called the
 … of wat afwesig was van werk tydens “reference week”) …
die verwysingsweek, maar ten minste  … or who were absent from work
’n vorm van betalende werk het om na during the reference week, but did
toe terug te keer – dus net tydelik have some form of paid work to
afwesig van werk. return to – therefore, only
temporarily absent from work.
82
 Meting van werkloosheid (in Suid-Afrika) /
Measurement of unemployment (in South Africa)

Wie is die ontmoedigde
Who are the discouraged work-
werksoekers? seekers?
 Persone van die ouderdom 15-64 jr  Persons aged 15-64 years that are
wat wil en kan werk (m.a.w. deel van willing and able to work (i.e. part of
breë arbeidsmag). broad labour force).
 Was nie indiensgeneem tydens die  Was not employed during the
verwysingsperiode nie. reference period.
 Was beskikbaar om te werk of om ’n  Was available to work/start a
besigheid te begin, maar het nie business but did not take active steps
aktief stappe geneem om werk te kry to find work during the last 4 weeks
gedurende die laaste 4 weke voor die before the interview (certain
onderhoud nie (hier geld sekere conditions apply).
voorwaardes).

83
 Meting van werkloosheid (in Suid-Afrika) /
Measurement of unemployment (in South Africa)

Wie is die ontmoedigde
Who are the discouraged work-
werksoekers? (vervolg) seekers? (continues)
 Op voorwaarde dat een van die  On condition that one of the
volgende redes hoofsaaklik die rede following reasons should explain why
moet wees waarom die persoon nie the person did not search for work
aktief werk gesoek het nie: actively:

Geen werk beskikbaar in area.
No jobs available in the area.

Kan nie werk kry wat die vaardighede
Unable to find work requiring his/her
vereis waaroor die persoon beskik skills.
nie.
Lost hope of finding any kind of job.

Het moed verloor om enige werk te
kry.

84
 Meting van werkloosheid (in Suid-Afrika) /
Measurement of unemployment (in South Africa)

Wie is dan werkloos?
Amptelike (eng) definisie van
werkloosheid: Persone 15-64 jr wat
wil en kan werk, wat:
a. nie indiensgeneem was in die
verwysingsweek nie en;
b. aktief werk gesoek het of probeer
het om ’n besigheid te begin in die 4
weke voor die onderhoud en;
c. beskikbaar was vir werk, m.a.w. kon
in die verwysingsweek begin werk of
’n besigheid begin, of;
d. het nie aktief werk gesoek in die 4
weke voor die onderhoud nie, maar
het ’n werk of besigheid wat op ’n
definitiewe datum in die toekoms
begin en was ook beskikbaar.

So, who is then unemployed?
Official (narrow) definition of
unemployment: Persons aged 15-64
years who are willing and able to work,
who:
a. were not employed in the reference
week and;
b. actively looked for work or tried to
start a business in the 4 weeks
preceding the interview and;
c. were available for work, i.e. would
have been able to start work or a
business in the reference week or;
d. had not actively looked for work in the
past 4 weeks but had a job or business
to start at a definite date in the future
and were available. 85
 Meting van werkloosheid (in Suid-Afrika) /
Measurement of unemployment (in South Africa)

Wie is dan werkloos? (vervolg)
So, who is then unemployed?

Breë definisie van werkloosheid:
Geen vereiste dat persoon aktief moes
werk soek nie.
Aantal mense werkloos volgens breë
definisie van werkloosheid = werkloses
(volgens eng definisie van
werkloosheid) + ontmoedigde
werksoekers.
(continues)
Broad definition of unemployment:
No prerequisite that person had to actively
search for work.
Number of people unemployed according
to broad definition of unemployment =
unemployed persons (according to narrow
definition of unemployment) +
discouraged work-seekers.

86
 Die stand van sake in Suid-Afrika /
The state of affairs in South Africa

87
Bron / Source: Quarterly Labour Force Survey (first quarter, 2012)
 Formules / Formulae
Werkloosheidskoers (U)
Getal werklose mense
U = x 100
Getal mense in arbeidsmag
Om die breë werkloosheidskoers te
bereken, gebruik die getal werklose
mense (volgens die breë definisie
van werkloosheid) en die getal
mense in die breë arbeidsmag.
Om die amptelike (eng)
werkloosheidskoers te bereken,
gebruik die getal werkloses (volgens
die eng definisie van werkloosheid)
en die getal mense in die eng
arbeidsmag.
Unemployment rate (U)
Number of unemployed people
U = x 100
Number of people in labour force
To calculate the broad unemployment
rate, use the number of unemployed
people (according to the broad definition
of unemployment) and the number of
people in the broad labour force.
To calculate the official (narrow)
unemployment rate, use the number of
unemployed people (according to the
narrow definition of unemployment) and
the number of people in the narrow labour
force.
88
 Formules / Formulae

Indiensnamekoers E

Getal mense indiensgeneem

= x 100
Getal mense in die werkende ouderdomsbevolking

Employment Absorption rate E

Number of employed people

= x 100
Number of people in the working − age population

89
 Formules / Formulae
Arbeidsmagdeelnamekoers LFPR

Aantal mense in arbeidsmag

= x 100
Aantal mense in werkende ouderdomsbevolking

Vir breë LFPR, gebruik *+,ë -+*,./01-2034,+;

vir eng LFPR, gebruik ,62 -+*,./01-2034,+.

Labour force participation rate (LFPR)

Number of people in the labour force

= x 100
Number of people in the working − age population

For broad LFPR, use *+:-/ ;-*:<+ 4:+=, 6<1*,+;

for narrow LFPR, use 6-++:> ;-*:<+ 4:+=, 6<1*,+.

90
 Oefening
Veronderstel Macau het in 2012 ’n bevolking van 80 miljoen
mense gehad. Die land gebruik dieselfde arbeidsmag- en
werkloosheidsdefinisies as Suid-Afrika.

In 2012 was daar 10 miljoen mense ekonomies onaktief volgens

die breë definisie van die arbeidsmag, terwyl 8 miljoen mense
jonger as 15 jaar of ouer as 64 jaar was. In totaal was 45 miljoen
mense indiensgeneem.

Indien daar in totaal 15 miljoen mense was wat ekonomies

onaktief was volgens die eng definisie van die arbeidsmag,
bereken die eng werkloosheidskoers vir 2012. Rond u antwoord
af tot een desimale syfer.
91
Antwoord

92
Antwoord

93
 Exercise
Suppose Macau had a population of 80 million people in 2012. The
country uses the same labour force and unemployment definitions of
South Africa.

In 2012, there were 10 million people that were economically inactive

according to the broad definition of the labour force, while 8 million
people were either younger than 15 years or older than 64 years. In
total, 45 million people were employed.

If a total of 15 million people were economically inactive according to

the narrow definition of the labour force, calculate the narrow
unemployment rate for 2012. Round your answer to one decimal
number.

94
Solution

95
Solution

96
Bron / Source: 2010/2011 South Africa survey. South African
Institute of Race Relations.
http://www.sairr.org.za/services/publications/south-africa-
survey/south-africa-survey-online-2010-2011/economy
Changing economic structure
Veranderende ekonomiese struktuur /

97
 Redes vir werkloosheid (p. 125) /
Reasons for unemployment (p. 125)

Afgedankte werker
 Afgedank, maar wil steeds werk.

Werk verlater
 Verlaat werk, maar wil steeds werk.
Soek na ’n beter geleentheid.

Her-toetreder
 Persoon wat voorheen
indiensgeneem was, wat vir ’n tyd
lank nie gewerk het nie en dan weer
die arbeidsmag betree en werk soek.

Nuwe toetreder
 Persoon wat voorheen nie
ekonomies aktief was nie, maar nou
wil werk.

Job loser
 Fired or laid off, but still wants to
work.

Job leaver
 Leaves job, but still wants to work.
Looking for a better job.

Re-entrant
 Person was previously employed, did
not work for a while, but then re-
enters the labour force and looks for
a job.

New entrant
 Person who was previously
economically inactive, but now wants
to work.

98
 Tipes werkloosheid (pp. 126-127) /
Types of unemployment (pp. 126-127)

Wrywingswerkloosheid (UF)
 Werkloosheid a.g.v. verandering in
vraagtoestande in spesifieke mark(te)
wat veroorsaak dat werkers met
oordraagbare vaardighede beweeg van
een werk na ’n ander (sien voorbeeld
op p. 126).
 “tussen werke”, tydelik werkloos

Strukturele Werkloosheid (US)
 Werkloosheid a.g.v. struktuur-
veranderinge in ekonomie.
 Individue moet nuwe vaardighede
aanleer om weer werk te kry.

Natuurlike Werkloosheid (UN)
 UN =UF + US
 Volle indiensname:
 U = UN > 0%!

Frictional Unemployment (UF)
 Unemployment as a result of changing
demand conditions in specific market(s)
that cause workers with transferable
skills to move from one job to another
(see example on p. 126).
 “between jobs”, temporarily
unemployed

Structural Unemployment (US)
 Unemployment as a result of structural
changes in economy.
 Individuals need to learn new skills to
find a new job.

Natural Unemployment (UN)
 UN =UF + US
 Full employment:
 U = UN > 0%!
99
 Nog tipes werkloosheid /
More types of unemployment

Sikliese Werkloosheid (UC)
Cyclical Unemployment (UC)

 Fluktuasies in sakesiklus.
 Stel werkers aan in opswaaifase,
dank werkers af in afswaaifase.
 Natuurlike koers dui langtermyn
tendens aan, siklies is afwyking
van die langtermyn tendens.
 U = UN + UC
 UC = U – UN

Seisoenale Werkloosheid
 Bv. buite die oestydperk sal
sommige plaaswerkers tydelik
werkloos wees.
 Business cycle fluctuations.
 Hire workers in upswing, shed
workers in downswing.
 Natural rate signifies trend
unemployment, cyclical is
deviation from long-run trend.
 U = UN + UC
 UC = U – UN

Seasonal Unemployment
 E.g. outside of harvesting season
some farm workers may be
temporarily unemployed.

100