Instructions

Decision Analysis Add-in Demonstration

http://www.me.utexas.edu/~jensen/ORMM/computation/unit/decision/index.html

Instructions
To use this workbook, you must first load the Decision Analysis add-in. See the Excel help file
• topic "About add-ins" before continuing.
This workbook comes without control buttons. To make the buttons choose Add Buttons from
• the Decision Analysis menu. This adds buttons to all the worksheets.
The add-in also uses user-defined functions for some of the problems. This will cause a link error
• message.
When you The problemaisworkbook
are moving solved with the Add computer,
to another Button command.
use the Remove Buttons command.
This simplifies opening the workbook on the other computer. Buttons are removed from all
• worksheets.

Decision Analysis Add-in

Description
Repair Computer Repair Example used in the add-in description
Repair_Graphics Graphical Decision tree for the Repair Example
Econ1 A simple decision problem: To make a new design or stick to the current one.
Econ1_U The Econ1 problem problem with a utility function
Econ1_U_Graphics Econ1_U Decision Tree
Econ2 The Econ problem with tests - Bayes' rule determines probabilities
Econ2_Graphics Econ2 Decision Tree
Cola A cola marketing problem - Uses utility functions
Cola_Graphics Cola Decision Tree

Page 1
 Instructions

Add-ins Used
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis

Page 2
Decision Analysis Model Name: Repair Titles: No Arc Params: No
Type: DA All Links: No Arc Values: Yes
Change Structure Solver:Functions Autoplace: Yes Node Params: No
Goal: Min Node Values: Yes
Change Node/Arc Term. Values: No
Arc Data
Solve Arc From To Arc Arc From To Arc Arc
Index Index Index Cost Prob. Name Name Name Total
Graphics 1 1 2 0 1 D1 Repl1 Repl1 Err:511
2 1 3 50 1 D1 X X Err:511
Sort Network 3 3 4 0 0.298 X D2 D2 Err:511
4 3 5 0 0.478 X D3 D3 Err:511
5 3 6 0 0.225 X Repl2 Repl2 Err:511
6 4 7 0 1 D2 Repl3 Repl3 Err:511
7 4 8 70 1 D2 Y Y Err:511
8 5 9 0 1 D3 Repl4 Repl4 Err:511
9 5 10 80 1 D3 Z Z Err:511
10 8 11 0 0.303 Y A A Err:511
11 8 12 0 0.471 Y B B Err:511
12 8 13 0 0.227 Y C,D,E C,D,E Err:511
13 10 14 0 0.346 Z C C Err:511
14 10 15 0 0.445 Z D D Err:511
15 10 16 0 0.209 Z A,B,E A,B,E Err:511
Utility: None
Tree: No Replace Mother Board 500 Repair A 100
Test X 50 Repair B 200
Test Y 70 Repair C 30
Test Z 80 Repair D 80
Node Data
Node Node Node Node OptimumOptimumOptimum Node Node
Index Name Type Cost Value Arc Decision Level Depth
1 D1 D 0 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
2 Repl1 T 500 Err:511 Err:511 1 0
3 X C 0 Err:511 Err:511 1 1
4 D2 D 0 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 2 0
5 D3 D 0 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 2 1
6 Repl2 T 500 Err:511 Err:511 2 2
7 Repl3 T 500 Err:511 Err:511 3 0
8 Y C 0 Err:511 Err:511 3 1
9 Repl4 T 500 Err:511 Err:511 3 2
10 Z C 0 Err:511 Err:511 3 3
11 A T 100 Err:511 Err:511 4 0
12 B T 200 Err:511 Err:511 4 1
13 C,D,E T 500 Err:511 Err:511 4 2
14 C T 30 Err:511 Err:511 4 3
15 D T 80 Err:511 Err:511 4 4
16 A,B,E T 500 Err:511 Err:511 4 5
Bayes (Repair_Test)
Likelihood Exp(Test) Prior Posterior
P(Test|Comp) x1 x2 x3 P(Comp) P(Comp|Test) x1 x2
World(Comp) A 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.15 A 0.30252 0.06283
B 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 B 0.47059 0.08377
C 0.15 0.55 0.3 0.3 C 0.15126 0.34555
D 0.05 0.85 0.1 0.25 D 0.04202 0.44503
E 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 E 0.03361 0.06283
Marginal P(Test) 0.2975 0.4775 0.225

Bayes (Repair_Test1) World(Comp) Marginal

Likelihood P(Test|Comp) A B C D E P(Test)
Exp(Test) x1 0.6 0.7 0.15 0.05 0.1 0.2975
x2 0.2 0.2 0.55 0.85 0.3 0.4775
x3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.225
Prior P(Comp) 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.25 0.1
Posterior P(Comp|Test) A B C D E
x1 0.30252 0.47059 0.15126 0.04202 0.03361
x2 0.06283 0.08377 0.34555 0.44503 0.06283
x3 0.13333 0.08889 0.4 0.11111 0.26667
 x3
0.13333
0.08889
0.4
0.11111
0.26667
Decision Tree for problem Repair

Change Node/Arc

Node Decision Value D1(1) 0 Repl1(2) 0 D2(4)

D1 X 364.225 0 500 0.2975 0
D2 Y 307.8151 364.225 307.815
D3 Z 230.6806 X Y

50 X(3) 0 D3(5)
0 0.4775 0
314.225 230.681
Z

0 Repl2(6)
0.225 500
0 Repl3(7) 0 A(11)
500 0.3025 100

70 Y(8) 0 B(12)
0 0.4706 200
237.815

0 Repl4(9) 0 C,D,E(13)
500 0.2269 500

80 Z(10) 0 C(14)
0 0.3455 30
150.681

0 D(15)
0.445 80

0 A,B,E(16)
0.2094 500
Decision Analysis Model Name: Econ1 Titles: Yes Arc Params: No
Type: DA All Links: No Arc Values: No
Change Structure Solver:Algorithm Auto Place: Yes Node Params: No
Goal: Max Node Values: Yes
Change Node/Arc Term. Values: Yes
Arc Data
Solve Arc From To Arc From To Arc Arc
Index Index Index Prob. Name Name Name Total
Graphics 1 1 2 1 Design New New 1085.8
2 1 3 0 Design Current Current 0
Sort Network 3 2 4 0.25 New S_90 S_90 884.5
4 2 5 0.4 New S_70 S_70 645.6
5 2 6 0.25 New S_50 S_50 -130
6 2 7 0.1 New S_30 S_30 -314.3
 Utility: None
Tree: No

Node Data
Node Node Node Node OptimumOptimumOptimum Node Node
Index Name Type Value Value Arc Decision Level Depth
1 Design D 0 1085.8 1 New 0 0
2 New C 0 1085.8 1 0
3 Current T 0 0 1 0
4 S_90 T 3538 3538 2 0
5 S_70 T 1614 1614 2 0
6 S_50 T -520 -520 2 0
7 S_30 T -3143 -3143 2 0
Decision Analysis Model Name: Econ1_U Titles: Yes Arc Params: No
Type: DA All Links: No Arc Values: No
Change Structure Solver:Functions Auto Place: Yes Node Params: No
Goal: Max Node Values: Yes
Change Node/Arc Term. Values: Yes
Arc Data
Solve Arc From To Arc From To Arc Arc
Index Index Index Prob. Name Name Name Utility
Graphics 1 1 2 1 Design New New Err:511
2 1 3 1 Design Current Current Err:511
Sort Network 3 2 4 0.25 New S_90 S_90 Err:511
4 2 5 0.4 New S_70 S_70 Err:511
5 2 6 0.25 New S_50 S_50 Err:511
6 2 7 0.1 New S_30 S_30 Err:511
 Utility: Power Utility Param. Min. Max. Norm.
Tree: No 0.25 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Value Function Inverse
10 Err:511 Err:511 Update Utility

Node Data
Node Node Node Node Node Optimum Cert. OptimumOptimum Node Node
Index Name Type Value Utility Utility Equiv. Arc Decision Level Depth
1 Design D 0 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
2 New C 0 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 1 0
3 Current T 0 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 1 1
4 S_90 T 3538 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 2 0
5 S_70 T 1614 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 2 1
6 S_50 T -520 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 2 2
7 S_30 T -3143 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 2 3
Decision Tree for problem Econ1_U

Change Node/Arc

Node Decision Value Decision Design(1) Chance

Design Current 0.828182 Opt. Util. 0.828181886 Exp. Util.
Opt. Dec. Current

Terminal
Utility
 New(2) Terminal S_90(4)
0.815329471 Prob. 0.25 Utility 1

Current(3) Terminal S_70(5)

0.828181886 Prob. 0.4 Utility 0.918592552

Terminal S_50(6)
Prob. 0.25 Utility 0.791569778

Terminal S_30(7)
Prob. 0.1 Utility 0
Decision Analysis Model Name: Econ2 Titles: No
Type: DA All Links: No
Change Structure Solver:Algorithm Auto Place: Yes
Goal: Max
Change Node/Arc
Arc Data
Solve Arc From To Arc Arc From To
Index Index Index Param. Prob. Name Name
Graphics 1 1 2 0 1 Decide to Test Do Test
2 1 3 0 0 Decide to Test No Test
Sort Network 3 2 6 1 0.6575 Do Test Test Fav.
4 2 7 2 0.3425 Do Test Test Not Fav.
5 3 4 0 0 No Test NT Current
6 3 5 0 1 No Test NT New
7 5 12 1 0.25 NT New Z1_90
8 5 13 2 0.4 NT New Z2_70
9 5 14 3 0.25 NT New Z3_50
10 5 15 4 0.1 NT New Z4_30
11 6 8 0 0 Test Fav. T Fav. Curr.
12 6 9 0 1 Test Fav. T Fav. New
13 7 10 0 1 Test Not Fav. T Not Fav. Curr.
14 7 11 0 0 Test Not Fav. T Not Fav. New
15 9 12 1 0.361217 T Fav. New Z1_90
16 9 13 2 0.51711 T Fav. New Z2_70
17 9 14 3 0.114068 T Fav. New Z3_50
18 9 15 4 0.007605 T Fav. New Z4_30
19 11 12 1 0.036496 T Not Fav. New Z1_90
20 11 13 2 0.175182 T Not Fav. New Z2_70
21 11 14 3 0.510949 T Not Fav. New Z3_50
22 11 15 4 0.277372 T Not Fav. New Z4_30
 Arc Params: Yes Utility: Exp Utility Param. Min. Max.
Arc Values: No Tree: No 10000 -3143 3538
Node Params: No Value Function Inverse
Node Values: Yes 790 0.6673 790
Term. Values: Yes
Node Data
Arc Arc Node Node Node Node Node Optimum Cert.
Name Utility Index Name Type Value Utility Utility Equiv.
Do Test 0.7267 1 Decide to Test D 0 0.7267 1228.4
No Test 0 2 Do Test C 0 0.7267 1228.4
Test Fav. 0.5371 3 No Test D 0 0.6791 875.66
Test Not Fav. 0.1896 4 NT Current T 0 0.5534 0.5534 0
NT Current 0 5 NT New C 0 0.6791 875.66
NT New 0.6791 6 Test Fav. D 0 0.8169 1933.6
Z1_90 0.25 7 Test Not Fav. D 0 0.5534 0
Z2_70 0.3107 8 T Fav. Curr. T 0 0.5534 0.5534 0
Z3_50 0.1184 9 T Fav. New C 0 0.8169 1933.6
Z4_30 0 10 T Not Fav. Curr. T 0 0.5534 0.5534 0
T Fav. Curr. 0 11 T Not Fav. New C 0 0.4145 -886.7
T Fav. New 0.8169 12 Z1_90 T 3538 1 1 3538
T Not Fav. Curr. 0.5534 13 Z2_70 T 1614 0.7768 0.7768 1614
T Not Fav. New 0 14 Z3_50 T -520 0.4734 0.4734 -520
Z1_90 0.3612 15 Z4_30 T -3143 0 0 -3143
Z2_70 0.4017
Z3_50 0.054
Z4_30 0
Z1_90 0.0365
Z2_70 0.1361
Z3_50 0.2419
Z4_30 0
 Norm.
0.4873

Update Utility

OptimumOptimum Node Node Bayes (Econ2_B) World(S)

Arc Decision Level Depth Likelihood P(Test|S) S_90 S_70 S_50
1 Do Test 0 0 Exp(Test) F 0.95 0.85 0.3
1 0 NF 0.05 0.15 0.7
6 NT New 1 1 Prior P(S) 0.25 0.4 0.25
2 2 Posterior P(S|Test) S_90 S_70 S_50
2 3 F 0.36122 0.51711 0.11407
12T Fav. New 2 0 NF 0.0365 0.17518 0.51095
T13Not Fav. Curr. 2 1
3 0
3 1
3 2
3 3
4 0
4 1
4 2
4 3
 Marginal Bayes (Econ2_B2)
S_30 P(Test) Likelihood Exp(Test) Prior Posterior
0.05 0.6575 P(Test|S) F NF P(S) P(S|Test)
0.95 0.3425 World(S) S_90 0.95 0.05 0.25 S_90
0.1 S_70 0.85 0.15 0.4 S_70
S_30 S_50 0.3 0.7 0.25 S_50
0.0076 S_30 0.05 0.95 0.1 S_30
0.27737 Marginal P(Test) 0.6575 0.3425
 F NF
0.36122 0.0365
0.51711 0.17518
0.11407 0.51095
0.0076 0.27737
 Decision Tree for problem Econ2

Change Node/Arc

Node Decision Value Decide to Test(1) Do Test(2)

Decide to Test Do Test 0.726674 0.7266737666 0.726673767 0.6575
No Test NT New 0.679083 Do Test
Test Fav. T Fav. New 0.816915
Test Not Fav.
T Not Fav. Curr.0.553437

No Test(3)
0.679083032 0.3425
NT New
 Test Fav.(6) T Fav. Curr.(8) Z1_90(12)
0.8169148187 0.5534372943 Multiple 1
T Fav. New

Test Not Fav.(7) T Fav. New(9) Z2_70(13)

0.5534372943 0.8169148187 Multiple 0.776802653
T Not Fav. Curr.

NT Current(4) T Not Fav. Curr.(10) Z3_50(14)

0.5534372943 0.5534372943 Multiple 0.473447884

NT New(5) T Not Fav. New(11) Z4_30(15)

0.6790830321 0.4144862448 Multiple 0
Decision Analysis Model Name: Cola Titles: No
Type: DA All Links: No
Change Structure Solver:Algorithm Auto Place: Yes
Goal: Max
Change Node/Arc
Arc Data
Solve Arc From To Arc From To
Index Index Index Prob. Name Name
Graphics 1 1 2 1 Decide Test Do Test
2 2 4 0.6 Do Test Market Decision
Sort Network 3 2 5 0.4 Do Test Market Decision
4 1 3 0 Decide Test Don't Test
5 4 6 0 Market Decision Market Locally
6 4 7 1 Market Decision Market Nationally
7 7 8 0.85 Market Nationally National Success
8 7 9 0.15 Market Nationally National Failure
9 5 10 1 Market Decision Market Locally
10 5 11 0 Market Decision Market Nationally
11 11 12 0.1 Market Nationally National Success
12 11 13 0.9 Market Nationally National Failure
13 3 14 1 Don't Test Market Nationally
14 3 15 0 Don't Test Market Locally
15 14 16 0.55 Market Nationally National Success
16 14 17 0.45 Market Nationally National Failure
 Arc Params: No Utility: Power Utility Param. Min. Max.
Arc Values: No Tree: No 0.5 0 450000
Node Params: No Value Function Inverse
Node Values: Yes 10 0.0047 10
Term. Values: Yes
Node Data
Arc Arc Node Node Node Node Node Optimum Cert.
Name Utility Index Name Type Value Utility Utility Equiv.
Do Test 0.7182 1 Decide Test D 0 0.7182 232141
Local Success 0.5117 2 Do Test C 0 0.7182 232141
Local Failure 0.2066 3 Don't Test D 0 0.7 220500
Don't Test 0 4 Market Decision D 0 0.8528 327271
Market Locally 0 5 Market Decision D 0 0.5164 120000
Market Nationally 0.8528 6 Market Locally T 120000 0.5164 0.5164 120000
National Success 0.8212 7 Market Nationally C 0 0.8528 327271
National Failure 0.0316 8 National Success T 420000 0.9661 0.9661 420000
Market Locally 0.5164 9 National Failure T 20000 0.2108 0.2108 20000
Market Nationally 0 10 Market Locally T 120000 0.5164 0.5164 120000
National Success 0.0966 11 Market Nationally C 0 0.2863 36897.3
National Failure 0.1897 12 National Success T 420000 0.9661 0.9661 420000
Market Natioinally 0.7 13 National Failure T 20000 0.2108 0.2108 20000
Market Locally 0 14 Market Nationally C 0 0.7 220500
National Success 0.55 15 Market Locally T 150000 0.5774 0.5774 150000
National Failure 0.15 16 National Success T 450000 1 1 450000
17 National Failure T 50000 0.3333 0.3333 50000
Norm.
670.82

Update Utility

Optimum Optimum Node Node

Arc Decision Level Depth
1 Do Test 0 0
1 0
13 Market Natioinally 1 1
6 Market Nationally 2 0
9 Market Locally 2 1
3 0
3 1
4 0
4 1
3 2
3 3
4 2
4 3
2 2
2 3
3 4
3 5
 Decision Tree for problem Cola

Change Node/Arc

Node Decision Value Decide Test(1) Do Test(2)

Decide Test Do Test 0.71824 0.718239625 0.7182396251
Market Decision
Market Nationally
0.852801 Do Test
Market Decision
Market Locally0.516398
Don't Test
Market Natioinally 0.7

Don't Test(3)
0.7000000079
Market Natioinally
 Market Decision(4) Market Locally(6) National Success(8)
0.6 0.8528008165 0.5163977795 0.85 0.9660917831
Market Nationally

Market Decision(5) Market Nationally(7) National Failure(9)

0.4 0.5163977795 0.8528008165 0.15 0.2108185107
Market Locally

Market Nationally(14) Market Locally(10) National Success(12)

0.7000000079 0.5163977795 0.1 0.9660917831

Market Locally(15) Market Nationally(11) National Failure(13)

0.5773502692 0.2863458343 0.9 0.2108185107

National Success(16)
0.55 1

National Failure(17)
0.45 0.3333333333
Success(12)
Decision Analysis Model Name: Dec1 Titles: Yes Arc Params: No
Type: DA All Links: No Arc Values: No
Change Structure Solver:Algorithm Autoplace: Yes Node Params: No
Goal: Max Node Values: Yes
Change Node/Arc Term. Values: Yes
Arc Data
Solve Arc From To Arc From To Arc Arc
Index Index Index Prob. Name Name Name Utility
Graphics 1 1 2 1 D_1 C_1 C_1 Err:511
2 1 3 1 D_1 C_2 C_2 Err:511
Sort Network 3 2 4 0.7 C_1 D_2 D_2 Err:511
4 2 5 0.3 C_1 D_3 D_3 Err:511
5 3 6 0.2 C_2 D_4 D_4 Err:511
6 3 7 0.8 C_2 D_5 D_5 Err:511
7 4 8 1 D_2 C_3 C_3 Err:511
8 4 9 1 D_2 C_4 C_4 Err:511
9 5 10 1 D_3 C_5 C_5 0
10 5 11 1 D_3 T_1 T_1 Err:511
11 6 12 1 D_4 T_2 T_2 Err:511
12 6 13 1 D_4 T_3 T_3 Err:511
13 7 14 1 D_5 T_4 T_4 Err:511
14 7 15 1 D_5 T_5 T_5 Err:511
15 8 16 0.5 C_3 T_6 T_6 Err:511
16 8 17 0.5 C_3 T_7 T_7 Err:511
17 9 18 0.6 C_4 T_8 T_8 Err:511
18 9 19 0.4 C_4 T_9 T_9 Err:511
19 10 20 1 C_5 T_10 T_10 0
 Utility: Linear Utility Param. Min. Max. Norm.
Tree: Yes 1 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511
Value Function Inverse
10 Err:511 Err:511 Update Utility

Node Data
Node Node Node Node Node Optimum Cert. OptimumOptimum Node Node
Index Name Type Value Utility Utility Equiv. Arc Decision Level Depth
1 D_1 D 0 Err:511 Err:511 #N/A 0 0
2 C_1 C 0 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
3 C_2 C 0 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
4 D_2 D 0 Err:511 Err:511 #N/A 0 0
5 D_3 D 0 Err:511 Err:511 #N/A 0 0
6 D_4 D 0 Err:511 Err:511 #N/A 0 0
7 D_5 D 0 Err:511 Err:511 #N/A 0 0
8 C_3 C 0 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
9 C_4 C 0 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
10 C_5 C 0 0 Err:511 0 0
11 T_1 T 10 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
12 T_2 T 2 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
13 T_3 T 12 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
14 T_4 T 7 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
15 T_5 T 2 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
16 T_6 T 5 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
17 T_7 T 3 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
18 T_8 T 2 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
19 T_9 T 4 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
20 T_10 T 3 0 0 Err:511 0 0
Decision Analysis Model Name: Dec2 Titles: Yes Arc Params: No
Type: DA All Links: No Arc Values: No
Change Structure Solver:Functions Autoplace: Yes Node Params: No
Goal: Max Node Values: Yes
Change Node/Arc Term. Values: Yes
Arc Data
Solve Arc From To Arc From To Arc Arc
Index Index Index Prob. Name Name Name Utility
Graphics 1 1 2 1 D_1 C_1 C_1 Err:511
2 1 3 1 D_1 T_1 T_1 Err:511
Sort Network 3 2 4 0.5 C_1 T_2 T_2 Err:511
4 2 5 0.5 C_1 T_3 T_3 Err:511
 Utility: Exp Utility Param. Min. Max. Norm.
Tree: Yes 10000 1000 10000 0.5934303
Value Function Inverse
5500 0.6106392 5500 Update Utility

Node Data
Node Node Node Node Node Optimum Cert. Optimum Optimum Node Node
Index Name Type Value Utility Utility Equiv. Arc Decision Level Depth
1 D_1 D 0 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 0 0
2 C_1 C 0 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 1 0
3 T_1 T 0 -0.1772 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 1 0
4 T_2 T 1000 0 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 2 0
5 T_3 T 10000 1 Err:511 Err:511 Err:511 2 0

U(x) x
1000 0 1000
1500 0.0821842 1500
2000 0.1603602 2000
2500 0.2347235 2500
3000 0.30546 3000
3500 0.3727467 3500
4000 0.4367518 4000
4500 0.4976353 4500
5000 0.5555495 5000
5500 0.6106392 5500
6000 0.6630422 6000
6500 0.7128894 6500
7000 0.7603055 7000
7500 0.8054091 7500
8000 0.848313 8000
8500 0.8891245 8500
9000 0.9279455 9000
9500 0.9648733 9500
10000 1 10000