CBS NEWS POLL

For release: Thursday, October 7, 2010

6:30 PM EDT

THE MID-TERM ELECTIONS AND THE PRESIDENT: LESS THAN FOUR WEEKS OUT
October 1-5, 2010

• Republicans hold an eight point lead over Democrats in the race for the House of
Representatives. Independents now favor Republicans by a twenty point margin, but
most wish there were other choices on the ballot.

• President Barack Obama may have a negative influence on voters’ choice in November;
they are more to likely say they would vote against rather than for a candidate supported
by the President.

• The President’s overall approval rating remains steady but mixed: 44% approve, and
45% disapprove. But his rating on handling the economy has dropped to its lowest level
since he took office; just 38% now approve.

• Just 40% approve of the job their own representative in Congress is doing, the lowest
ever recorded in this poll since 1978. Overall Congressional approval is just 18%.

The Elections

Republicans continue to hold the lead in the generic ballot for the House of Representatives.
45% of likely voters say they would support the Republican candidate, while fewer -- 37% --
would back the Democrat. Still, with less than four weeks to go until Election Day, many voters
remain open-minded: 16% say they don’t know who they would vote for or it depends.

2010 Congressional Vote

(Among likely voters)
Now 9/2010
Republican 45% 40%
Democrat 37 38
Don’t know/depends 16 19

When likely voters who lean toward a candidate are included, there is little change. 49% of likely
voters support the Republican, while 40% support the Democratic candidate.

Both parties do well with their base, but among the key swing group of independents, 44% say
they will vote for the Republican, while 24% plan to vote for the Democratic candidate. A quarter
remains undecided at this point.

2010 Congressional Vote

(Among likely voters)
Reps Dems Inds
Republican 85% 3% 44%
Democrat 3 88 24
Don’t know/depends 11 9 27
There is also some dissatisfaction with the choices voters have on the ballot this election: just
over half - 51% - wish there were other candidate choices, while 43% are satisfied. Satisfaction
with this year’s candidates is higher among Republicans than Democrats, and is particularly low
among independents.

Satisfied With Choices This Election

(Among likely voters)
All Reps Dems Inds
Yes, satisfied 43% 54% 43% 34%
No, wish there were other choices 51 40 51 61

Half of likely voters (50%) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this
election, but this poll finds the “enthusiasm gap” still exists. 60% of Republicans are more
enthusiastic about voting this year, compared to just 40% of Democrats. At 49%, independents
are now more enthusiastic than Democrats.

More Enthusiastic About Voting

(Among likely voters)
Now 9/2010
All voters 50% 47%
Republicans 60% 58%
Democrats 40% 47%
Independents 49% 37%

Each party’s voters say they think of their vote as mainly for their party rather than against the
opposing party. Pluralities, however, say their vote will be about something other than the
political parties.
Is Your Vote for Congress Mainly…
(Among likely voters)
House vote for:
Republican Democrat
For your party 34% 39%
Against other party 18 22
Something else 45 36

Evaluating the President

In assessing Barack Obama’s presidency so far, a third of Americans think he has been a very good or
a good president. 39% say he’s been average, while 27% think he has been a poor president.

But expectations for Barack Obama’s presidency were much higher when he took office. In
January 2009, two in three Americans expected Barack Obama to be a good or very good
president. Just 4% thought he would be a poor president.

Type Of President Obama Is/Will Be:

Barack Obama
Now 1/2009
Very good 11% 28%
Good 22 40
Average 39 20
Poor 27 4
The American public is divided in their approval of the job President Obama is doing: 44%
approve, while 45% disapprove, similar to last month.

President Obama’s Overall Job Rating

Now 9/2010 8/2010 7/2010 6/2010 4/2010
Approve 44% 45% 48% 44% 47% 51%
Disapprove 45 47 44 44 43 39

The President’s rating on the economy – the nation’s number one problem for many months - remains
negative. 38% approve of the job he is doing handling the issue – his lowest rating since assuming
office. 50% disapprove.

President Obama’s Job Approval Handling the Economy…

Now 9/2010 8/2010 7/2010 6/2010
Approve 38% 41% 44 40 45
Disapprove 50 51 48 54 48

Congress

Disapproval of Congress remains high – 71% disapprove, while 18% approve. The public’s
approval of their own Representative in Congress is higher (40% approve), but that figure is the
lowest since 1978, when CBS News started asking the question.

Rating of Congress
Overall Own Representative
Approve 18% 40%
Disapprove 71 40
Don’t know 11 20

The Impact of Obama, Pelosi and Boehner

The poll asked voters’ opinions of three political figures who may factor into their choice in
November - President Barack Obama, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Minority Leader John
Boehner. Among the three, the President is viewed most favorably by voters; he is also the
most widely-known. Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader Boehner both receive net negative
ratings from voters. 76% of voters are undecided or don’t know enough about Representative
Boehner to haven an opinion of him. Speaker Pelosi is more familiar to voters, but four in 10 are
still unable to offer an opinion of her.

Views of …
(Among registered voters)
Obama Pelosi Boehner
Favorable 42% 15% 8%
Unfavorable 39 44 15
Undecided 15 18 17
Haven’t heard enough 3 22 59

President Obama may not be much help to candidates this November; just 15% of likely voters
say the President’s support for a candidate would make them more likely to vote for him or her.
Twice as many voters – 31% - say his support would make them less likely to back that
candidate. But 52% say the President’s support of a candidate would not impact their vote.

There are differences along party lines. 59% of Republicans say President Obama’s support of
a candidate would them less likely to back him or her, while 33% of Democrats say it would
make them more likely to support the candidate.

Impact of Pres. Obama’s Support for a Candidate on Your Vote

(Among likely voters)
All Reps Dems Inds
More likely 15% 5% 33% 8%
Less likely 31 59 4 30
Wouldn’t affect vote 52 33 61 61

In addition, a third of likely voters say their vote this November will be against the Speaker,
including 56% of Republicans who say that. Few - 11% of likely voters - say their vote will be in
support of her. Still, 47% of likely voters say their vote will not be about Speaker Pelosi.

Vote for Congress this Fall is…

(Among likely voters)
All Reps Dems Inds
Support of Pelosi 11% 5% 24% 5%
Against Pelosi 35 56 14 35
Not about Pelosi 47 37 54 49

The Pledge to America

The Republicans in Congress recently unveiled an agenda called “Pledge to America”, and
while most voters haven’t heard about it, 37% have, including 38% of Republicans. More voters
are aware of the “Pledge to America” than were aware of the Republicans’ “Contract with
America” in October 1994.

Heard or Read About…

(among registered voters)
“Pledge to America” “Contract with America”
Yes 37% 29%
No 61 70

Among the overall electorate, support for the ideas in the “Pledge to America” is mixed, but
among Republicans who have heard about the plan, a majority - 58%- says they support most
of its ideas.

Support Ideas in the “Pledge to America”

(among registered voters who have heard about the Pledge to America)
All Reps
Most 28% 58%
Some 26 29
Few 23 7
None 16 1
_________________________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,129 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone
October 1-5, 2010. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell
phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three
percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of
Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
CBS News Poll
The Midterm Elections and the President: Less than Four Weeks out
October 1-5, 2010

q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
*** Party ID ***
Total Rep Dem Ind Sep10b
% % % % %
Approve 44 14 72 42 45
Disapprove 45 80 16 45 47
DK/NA 11 6 12 13 8

q2 SEPARATE RELEASE

q3 What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?

Economy/Jobs 54 56 52 54 60
Health Care 7 6 7 7 3
Budget Deficit/National Debt 3 5 2 4 3
Immigration 3 2 5 2 2
Education 2 2 2 3 2
Moral Values/Family Values 2 2 0 3 2
The President/Barack Obama 2 3 3 1 2
Other 22 18 13 23 22
DK/NA 5 6 6 3 4

q4 BLANK

q5 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?

Approve 38 10 65 37 41
Disapprove 50 82 22 50 51
DK/NA 12 8 13 13 8

q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

Approve 18 8 24 19 5 21
Disapprove 71 78 64 72 93 70
DK/NA 11 14 12 9 2 9

q7 How about the representative in Congress from your district? Do you approve or
disapprove of the way your representative is handling his or her job?

May10c
Approve 40 37 42 41 35 47
Disapprove 40 47 33 41 56 39
DK/NA 20 16 25 18 9 14

q8 – q9 HELD FOR RELEASE

q10 What kind of President do you think Barack Obama has been so far -- a very good
President, a good President, an average President, or a poor President?

** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
*** Party ID ***
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Very good 11 3 21 8
Good 22 6 39 18
Average 39 33 34 47
Poor 27 57 6 25
DK/NA 1 1 0 2

q11 BLANK

q12 How likely is it that you will vote in the 2010 election for Congress in November --
would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely
not vote in the election for Congress?

** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Sep10b

%
Definitely vote 74 80 68 73 76
Probably vote 20 17 24 18 18
Probably not vote 4 1 6 6 5
Definitely not vote 2 2 1 2 1
Already voted (vol.) 0 0 0 0 0
DK/NA 0 0 1 1 0

q13 SEPARATE RELEASE

q14 If the 2010 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would
you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?

***** LIKELY VOTERS *****

Republican 45 85 3 44 40
Democratic 37 3 88 24 38
Other (vol.) 2 1 0 5 1
Won't vote (vol.) 0 0 0 0 2
Depends (vol.) 7 3 3 13 11
DK/NA 9 8 6 14 8

q15 Well, as of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic
candidate in your district?

Republican 49 91 4 50
Democratic 40 4 91 29
Other (vol) 2 1 0 5
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 0 0 0 0
Depends (vol.) 2 1 1 5
DK/NA 7 3 4 11

q16 Compared to previous Congressional elections, this year are you more enthusiastic
about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic?

More enthusiastic 50 60 40 49 47
Less enthusiastic 30 20 38 31 36
Same (vol.) 18 18 20 17 16
DK/NA 2 2 2 3 1
q17 Do you think of your vote this fall mainly as a vote for the Republican Party, a vote
against the Democratic Party, or will your vote be about something else?

* LIKELY HOUSE REPUBLICAN VOTERS *

%
For Republican Party 34
Against Democratic Party 18
Something else 45
DK/NA 3

q18 Do you think of your vote this fall mainly as a vote for the Democratic Party, a vote
against the Republican Party, or will your vote be about something else?

* LIKELY HOUSE DEMOCRAT VOTERS *

For Democratic Party 39
Against Republican Party 22
Something else 36
DK/NA 3

q19 Generally, are you satisfied with the choices you have in the elections this year in
your state, or do you wish there were other choices?

***** LIKELY VOTERS *****

Total Rep Dem Ind Oct06d
% % % %
Satisfied 43 54 43 34 55
Wish other choices 51 40 51 61 42
Depends on race (vol.) 2 2 3 2 1
DK/NA 4 4 3 3 2

q20 Do you think of your vote for Congress this fall as a vote for Speaker of the House
Nancy Pelosi, a vote against Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, or don't you think of
your vote this fall as being about Nancy Pelosi?

Support of Pelosi 11 5 24 5
Against Pelosi 35 56 14 35
Not about Pelosi 47 37 54 49
DK/NA 7 2 8 11

q21 If Barack Obama supported a candidate for political office in your area, would that
make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate,
or couldn't it affect how you voted one way or another?

More likely 15 5 33 8
Less likely 31 59 4 30
No effect 52 33 61 61
DK/NA 2 3 2 1

q22-q37 SEPARATE RELEASE

q38 Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you
heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion?

** REGISTERED VOTERS **
*** Party ID ***
Total Rep Dem Ind Apr10a
% % % % %
Favorable 42 11 74 36 42
Not favorable 39 72 11 40 37
Undecided 15 12 12 19 15
Haven't heard enough 3 5 2 3 6
Refused 1 0 1 2 0

q39 Is your opinion of Nancy Pelosi favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you
heard enough about Nancy Pelosi yet to have an opinion?

Mar10b
Favorable 15 3 30 11 13
Not favorable 44 71 20 45 42
Undecided 18 10 25 19 16
Haven't heard enough 22 16 24 25 29
Refused 1 0 1 0 0

q40 Is your opinion of John Boehner favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you
heard enough about John Boehner yet to have an opinion?

Favorable 8 15 4 7
Not favorable 15 13 17 15
Undecided 17 17 14 20
Haven't heard enough 59 55 64 57
Refused 1 0 1 1

Q41-q42 SEPARATE RELEASE

q43 Have you heard or read anything about the Republican 'Pledge to America', which
outlines a set of goals the Republicans in Congress have promised to promote, or haven't
you heard or read anything about it?

Have heard or read 37 38 30 42

Have not heard or read 61 59 68 56
Don't know/no answer 2 3 2 2

q44 In general do you support most of the ideas in the Republican 'Pledge to America',
some of the ideas, a few of the ideas, or none of the ideas?

Most 28 58 3 22
Some 26 29 16 30
Few 23 7 39 25
None 16 1 40 11
Don't know/No answer 7 5 2 12
Sample sizes:

UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED
Total Respondents 1129
Total registered voters 1018 899
Total likely voters 991
Effective likely voters 397

Total Republicans 388 308 (27%)

Total Democrats 301 370 (33%)
Total Independents 440 451 (40%)

Total Registered Republicans 372 265 (30%)

Total Registered Democrats 273 305 (34%)
Total Registered Independents 373 329 (36%)