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Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam’s President Tran Dai
Quang Dies - 2
Carlyle A. Thayer
September 21, 2018

Q1. How will Vietnam’s government change, in any way, its political system or
economic strategy following the death of President Tran Dai Quang? If no change is
expected, why not?
ANSWER: There will be no major change in Vietnam's economic strategy or political
system as a result of the passing of President Tran Dai Quang. Vietnam will
follow constitutional procedures. The Vice President will become acting president.
The Politburo will recommend a nominee from among its senior ranks to the party
Central Committee. Once this nominee is approved at a plenum likely to be held next
month, his/her name will be put to the National Assembly for a vote.
Current rumours suggest it is likely Defense Minister Ngo Xuan Lich will become
president later this year, and Sen. Lt. Gen. Luong Cuong, Secretary of the Communist
Party of Vietnam Central Committee, member of the Central Military Commission’s
standing board and Chairman of the Political General Department, will become
defense minister.
Q2. What is Tran Dai Quang's legacy, or what will people in and outside Vietnam
remember him for in the years ahead?
ANSWER: Tran Dai Quang passed away just after serving half of his fire-year term. He
supported the present party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong in blocking former
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung's unprecedented attempt at the last party
national congress in 2016 to shift from prime minister to party Secretary General.
Quang was a supporter of collective leadership under Secretary General Trong, He
also supported Trong's anti-corruption campaign, even including cutting down the
bloated upper ranks of the Ministry of Public Security that he headed
before becoming state president.
The office of state president is largely symbolic and carries little substantive power in
Vietnam's political system. As state president Quang met with presidents Barack
Obama and Donald Trump to advance the comprehensive partnership between
Vietnam and the United States.
Summing up Quang's legacy is difficult because he was discrete as Minister of Public
Security. He was also diagnosed with cancer fifteen months after taking office and
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travelled to Japan six times to seek treatment. Quang was the quintessential "grey
man" who blended into the background of Vietnam's collective leadership.
Large sections of Vietnam's population will remember him for his empathy to anti-
China protests that swept Vietnam in mid-year in reaction to a draft law that could
have allowed Chinese business interests to take out 99 year leases in three proposes
special economic zones.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam’s President Tran Dai Quang Dies – 2,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 21, 2018. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.