Predicting house mouse outbreaks

Models developed in Pech et al (1999) and by Kenney et al (2003) and Singleton et al (in press)

This spreadsheet includes six models for the possible prediction of house mouse outbreaks.

1. Qualitative model (Kenney): this model requires data on MAY-SEPTEMBER RAINFALL and NOVEMBER RAINFALL.
It will then predict the probability of a mouse outbreak in the next autumn months.

2 and 3. Quantitative model (Kenney): two models require data on APRIL-OCTOBER RAINFALL and DECEMBER RAINFALL
as well as the ABUNDANCE OF MICE IN SEPTEMBER.
These two models differ slightly in their fit to past data and we do not yet know which one might be better in the future.
These two models predict the absolute abundance of mice in the autumn of the year. Severe damage can be expected when abundance exceeds 100.

4. Minimalist quantitative model (Kenney): this model requires data on APRIL-OCTOBER RAINFALL
and the ABUNDANCE OF MICE IN SEPTEMBER. As such, it can make predictions earlier in the year.
This model also predicts the absolute abundance of mice in the autumn of the year. Severe damage can be expected when abundance exceeds 100.

5. Quantitative model (Pech-Hood Model 2): this model requires data on APRIL-OCTOBER RAINFALL, NOVEMBER RAINFALL, and the
ABUNDANCE OF MICE IN SEPTEMBER or OCTOBER.
This model differs only slightly from the following model and we do not yet know which one might be better in the future.
This model predicts the sequence of change in mouse abundance from spring to autumn of the year.

6. Quantitative model (Pech-Hood Model 4): this model requires data on APRIL-OCTOBER RAINFALL, NOVEMBER RAINFALL, and the
ABUNDANCE OF MICE IN SEPTEMBER or OCTOBER.
This model differs only slightly from the preceding model (including a density dependence term) and we do not yet know which one might be better in the future.

To use these models, obtain the necessary rainfall data (in mm) and (if needed) the abundance of mice in September (% trap success) and go to
the next sheets in this spreadsheet to enter the data.
We do not yet know how accurate these models are for future predictions, so they should be used with caution.

Kenney AJ, Krebs CJ, Davis S, Pech R, Mutze G, Singleton GR. 2003. Predicting house mouse outbreaks in the wheat-growing areas of south-eastern
Australia. In: Singleton GR, Hinds LA, Krebs CJ, and Spratt DM, editors. Rats, mice and people: rodent biology and management. Canberra (Australia):
Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research. p 325-328.
Pech RP, Hood GM, Singleton GR, Salmon E, Forrester RI, Brown PR. 1999. Models for predicting plagues of house mice (Mus domesticus ) in
Australia. In: Singleton GR, Hinds LA, Leirs H, Zhang Z, editors. Ecologically-based management of rodent pests. Canberra (Australia):
Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research. p 81-112.
 Mouse_Plague_Prediction_Models.xls

Estimated logistic regression model—house mouse outbreaks

Model for an outbreak occurring June 28, 2002 version Model used in Kenney et al (2003) paper

For Year (t-1)

Area Year of November May-September Logit (Y) Probability of an Did outbreak Outbreaks occur when November rainfall
harvest rainfall (mm) rainfall (mm) outbreak occurring occur? is high and winter rainfall (May to September)
(t) (t – 1) (t – 1) in harvest year (t) 1 = yes is high as well.

Mildura 2002 12.20 151.60 1.21 0.23 0

Walpeup 2004 55 162.4 -0.06 0.51 0

Walpeup 2004 16 162.4 1.02 0.26 0 To use this model:
Walpeup 2005 51.8 127.7 0.30 0.43 Fill in the boxes in the dark green area
2.73 0.06 with the observed data and
2.73 0.06 the prediction will be calculated
2.73 0.06 in the dark blue printing (column F).
2.73 0.06 One example is shown for illustration.
2.73 0.06
2.73 0.06
2.73 0.06
2.73 0.06
2.73 0.06
2.73 0.06
2.73 0.06

2010/10/089:02 AM
 Mouse_Plague_Prediction_Models.xls

Estimated robust multiple regression model—house mouse outbreaks

Model for predicting the maximum adjusted trap success in autumn November 2002 version used in paper
Least absolute deviation with C = 1.0
For Year (t-1)
Area Year of Year December April-October September Predicted (%) Predicted Observed Outbreaks occur when December rainfall
harvest of rainfall (mm) rainfall (mm) adj. trap maximal autumn absolute density maximal autumn is high and winter rainfall (April to October)
(t) Rainfall (t – 1) (t – 1) success abundance (t) per ha abundance is high as well, and September mouse

Beulah 2000 1999 22 257 1.71 23.3 5.13 numbers are moderate to high.

Walpeup 2004 2003 33.4 204.6 3.60 28.0 176

Walpeup 2005 2004 75.8 136.9 9.10 58.6 370 To use this model:
-23.5 Fill in the boxes in the dark green area
-23.5 with the observed data and
-23.5 the prediction will be calculated
-23.5 in the dark blue printing (column G).
-23.5 One example is shown for illustration.
-23.5
-23.5
-23.5 Serious damage will probably
-23.5 occur when the predicted autumn
-23.5 abundance is 100% or more
-23.5 (635 mice per ha).
-23.5
-23.5
-23.5
-23.5
-23.5
-23.5

2010/10/089:03 AM
 Mouse_Plague_Prediction_Models.xls

Estimated robust multiple regression model—house mouse outbreaks

Model for predicting the maximum adjusted trap success in autumn May 2002 version
Tukey biweight model with C = 4.685
For Year (t-1)
Area Year of Year December April-October September Predicted (%) Predicted Observed Outbreaks occur when December rainfall
harvest of rainfall (mm) rainfall (mm) adj. trap maximal autumn absolute density maximal autumn is high and winter rainfall (April to October)
(t) rainfall (t – 1) (t – 1) success abundance (t) per ha abundance is high as well, and September mouse

Beulah 2000 1999 22 257 1.71 24.5 5.13 numbers are moderate to high.

Walpeup 2004 2003 33.4 204.6 3.60 24.9 156

Walpeup 2005 2004 75.8 136.9 9.1 43.9 277 To use this model:
-27.2 Fill in the boxes in the dark green area
-27.2 with the observed data and
-27.2 the prediction will be calculated
-27.2 in the dark blue printing (column G).
-27.2 One example is shown for illustration.
-27.2
-27.2
-27.2 Serious damage will probably
-27.2 occur when the predicted autumn
-27.2 abundance is 100% or more
-27.2 (635 mice per ha).
-27.2
-27.2
-27.2
-27.2
-27.2
-27.2

2010/10/089:04 AM
Estimated robust multiple regression minimal model—house mouse outbreaks
Model for predicting the maximum adjusted trap success in autumn 21 November 2002 version
Least absolute deviation with C = 1.0 No December rain used in model
For year (t – 1)
Area Year of Year April-October September Predicted Predicted Observed Outbreaks occur when November rainfall
harvest of rainfall (mm) adj. trap maximal autumn absolute density maximal autumn is high and winter rainfall (April to October)
(t) rainfall (t – 1) success abundance (t) per ha abundance is high as well, and September mouse

Beulah 1960 1959 188.2 11.4 numbers are moderate to high.

Walpeup 2004 2003 204.6 3.60 19.8 124

Walpeup 2004 2003 240.1 3.60 28.1 176 To use this model:
Walpeup 2005 2004 136.9 9.10 10.8 67 Fill in the boxes in the dark green area
-32.9 with the observed data and
-32.9 the prediction will be calculated
-32.9 in the dark blue printing (column G).
-32.9 One example is shown for illustration.
-32.9
-32.9
-32.9 Serious damage will probably
-32.9 occur when the predicted autumn
-32.9 abundance is 100% or more
(635 mice per ha).
Roger Pech-Greg Hood Model 2 to predict house mouse population outbreaks
This model differs from Pech-Hood Model 4 in that it does not includes a density-dependent term. It was found to be nearly as good as Model 4 in the analysis by Pech et al (1999).
April to
October November
rain rainfall
an 0.24 April May June July Aug Sept October
cn 1.08 Rain (mm) 2004 1.6 11.8 25.8 25.8 44 20.3 7.6 136.9 51.8 188.7
dn 23.7
u 9.4 Enter RAINFALL in the boxes above
to obtain the model predictions.
Predicted mouse abundance-Model 2
Enter spring trapping success
Spring data in the box to the left. 10.00%
trap
success 9.10% 9.00%

Predicted mouse abundance

8.00%

(adjusted trap success)

Date Time Wheat r Density 7.00%
10-Oct 7 9.11707E-05 -0.237669 9.10% Wheat r
19-Nov 8 0.000137189 -0.236494 7.18% 0 -0.24 6.00%
30-Dec 9 0.000155363 -0.236031 5.66% 0.01 -0.012111
08-Feb 10 0.000137189 -0.236494 4.47% 0.02 0.167692 5.00%
21-Mar 11 9.11707E-05 -0.237669 3.53% 0.03 0.309555
30-Apr 12 3.88407E-05 -0.239006 2.78% 0.04 0.421483 4.00%
10-Jun 13 4.68477E-06 -0.23988 2.19% 0.05 0.509794
1.72% 0.06 0.57947 3.00%
0.07 0.634444
0.08 0.677818 2.00%
0.00018 0.09 0.71204
1.00%
0.00016
0.1 0.739041
0.11 0.760344 0.00%
0.00014
0.12 0.777152
0.00012
0.13 0.790414 20-Sep 09-Nov 29-Dec 17-Feb 08-Apr 28-May 17-Jul
Wheat

0.0001 0.14 0.800877 Date

0.00008 0.15 0.809132
0.00006 0.16 0.815646
0.00004
0.17 0.820785
0.18 0.824839
0.00002
0.19 0.828038
0 0.2 0.830562
38250 38300 38350 38400 38450 38500 38550 0.21 0.832554
Date 0.22 0.834125
0.23 0.835365
0.24 0.836343
0.25 0.837114
0.26 0.837723
1 0.27 0.838204
0.28 0.838583
0.5
0.29 0.838882
0.3 0.839118
0
0.31 0.839304
r 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
0.32 0.839451
-0.5
0.33 0.839567
0.34 0.839658
-1
0.35 0.83973
0.36 0.839787
-1.5
0.37 0.839832
Wheat 0.38 0.839868
0.39 0.839895
 0.4 0.839918
0.41 0.839935
0.42 0.839949
0.43 0.839959
0.44 0.839968
0.45 0.839975
0.46 0.83998
0.47 0.839984
0.48 0.839988
0.49 0.83999
0.5 0.839992
Roger Pech-Greg Hood Model 4 to predict house mouse population outbreaks
This model includes a density-dependent term (g) and was found to be the best model in the analysis by Pech et al (1999).
April to
October November
rain rainfall
an 0.22 April May June July Aug Sept October
cn 0.74 Rain (mm) 2004 1.6 11.8 25.8 25.8 44 20.3 7.6 136.9 51.8 188.7
dn 102.5
u 11.3 Enter RAINFALL data in the boxes above
g -0.3 to obtain the model predictions.
Predicted mouse abundance-Model 4
Enter spring trapping success 10.0%
Oct trap data in the box to the left.
success 9.10% 9.0%

Predicted mouse abundance

8.0%

(adjusted trap success)

Date Time Wheat r Density 7.0%
10-Oct 7 1.54889E-05 -0.246126 9.10% Wheat r
19-Nov 8 2.33069E-05 -0.239578 7.11% 0 -0.2197 6.0%
30-Dec 9 2.63945E-05 -0.234797 5.60% 0.01 0.254791 5.0%
08-Feb 10 2.33069E-05 -0.231516 4.43% 0.02 0.425036
21-Mar 11 1.54889E-05 -0.229363 3.51% 0.03 0.48612 4.0%
30-Apr 12 6.59863E-06 -0.227877 2.79% 0.04 0.508036
10-Jun 13 7.95892E-07 -0.22661 2.22% 0.05 0.5159 3.0%
20-Jul 14 7.95892E-07 -0.225257 1.77% 0.06 0.518721 2.0%
0.07 0.519734
0.08 0.520097 1.0%
0.00003 0.09 0.520227
0.1 0.520274
0.0%
0.000025 0.11 0.520291 20-Sep 09-Nov 29-Dec 17-Feb 08-Apr 28-May 17-Jul
0.12 0.520297 Date
0.00002
0.13 0.520299
Wheat

0.14 0.5203
0.000015
0.15 0.5203
0.00001 0.16 0.5203
0.17 0.5203
0.000005 0.18 0.5203
0.19 0.5203
0 0.2 0.5203
38250 38300 38350 38400 38450 38500 38550
0.21 0.5203
Date 0.22 0.5203
0.23 0.5203
0.24 0.5203
0.25 0.5203
0.26 0.5203
1
0.27 0.5203
0.28 0.5203
0.5
0.29 0.5203
0.3 0.5203
0
0.31 0.5203
r 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
0.32 0.5203
-0.5
0.33 0.5203
0.34 0.5203
-1
0.35 0.5203
0.36 0.5203
-1.5
0.37 0.5203
Wheat
0.38 0.5203
0.39 0.5203
0.4 0.5203
0.41 0.5203
0.42 0.5203
0.43 0.5203
0.44 0.5203
0.45 0.5203
0.46 0.5203
0.47 0.5203
0.48 0.5203
0.49 0.5203
0.5 0.5203