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TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Matt Langston, VP Axiom Strategies;


RE: CA-CD-16 Elizabeth Heng for Congress Campaign
DATE: September 25, 2018
Polling
According to a survey conducted on August 14-16 among 405 registered likely voters in CD-16, voters are engaged about
the 2018 elections. The ballot results indicate that this will be a tough race for a Republican to win, but Heng is
outperforming her name identification, and both the issue matrix and message testing suggest that there are good issues
and impactful messaging to move persuadable voters and define Jim Costa as unfit for Congress.
Political Environment
Ø Voters are engaged about the 2018 elections. Fully sixty-four percent (64%) of them indicate that they are extremely
likely to vote in November, which is a four-point increase since the June survey. Heng voters (66% extremely likely)
and Costa voters (65% extremely likely) are at near parity in terms of enthusiasm.
Ø Democrats have a 15-point advantage (38%-53%) over Republicans on the generic ballot. However, fully 93% of
Republicans select the GOP on the generic ballot while just 86% of Democrats select Democrat on the generic ballot.
Ø A summary of voter responses on the most important issue question is below. As seen below, this issue matrix remains
quite diverse with every issue offered being selected by at least three percent of the electorate.

Ø There is a stark contrast between Heng voters and Costa voters on their issues of concern. For Heng voters, immigration
(37%) and water issues (25%) are the top tier concerns while for Costa voters, health care (29%) and immigration (25%)
are the top tier concerns.
Name Identification
Ø Four names were tested in the name identification series. Voter responses are summarized in the chart below.

Ø As seen above, President Trump will not be asset for the Heng campaign beyond base mobilization. He has a majority
unfavorable rating with all voters as well as Democrats (83% unfavorable) and decline to state voters (52% unfavorable).
Ø However, Nancy Pelosi will not be an asset for the Costa campaign. She has a majority unfavorable rating with
Republicans (88%) and more than one-third (36%) of decline to state voters have an unfavorable view of her.

U.S. Congressional Ballot


Ø On the initial ballot, Costa has an 18-point lead (55%-37%) with just 7% of voters undecided. Among those voters who
have made a definite decision, Costa has a 13-point lead (34%-21%).
Ø Heng has her strongest levels of support among Madera County voters, Republicans, conservatives, and those who name
water issues as their top concern.
Ø Costa is strongest with his base voters – Democrats, liberals, and those whose top issue is healthcare. As one would
expect, younger voters, decline to state voters, and moderates tend to be more undecided.
Informed Ballot
Ø Following substantial message testing, the informed ballot finds Heng with a 10-point lead (52%-42%) over Costa
with just 6% of voters undecided. Definite support on this informed ballot has Heng with a 3-point advantage (31%-
28%).
Ø Overall:
• 16% of voters switch to Heng;
• 36% remain with Heng;
• 6% of voters switch to undecided or remain undecided
• 40% of voters remain with Costa; and
• 2% of voters switch to Costa.
Ø This notable growth in support for Heng is driven by strong movement among younger voters and moderates.

Media
In order to define Jim Costa as a career politician with a sorry record and bump Elizabeth’s name ID with as many voters
as possible, the campaign focus heavily on TV advertising. We’ve filmed and will release our second TV ad in October to
combat the additional attack ads that, without a doubt, Jim Costa has loaded up and ready. We also have a good amount of
digital advertising planned to contrast Costa and aim messaging at voters in a more targeted way.

State of The Race


This race will play out largely on TV, which means we need as much funding behind our media operation as possible. The
path to victory in this race will be about painting Costa as a career failure and undermining his self-acclaimed
“accomplishments,” rather than a job interview for Elizabeth.
On the ground, we’ve continued to talk to voters at local events and via door-to-door and phone efforts. As Elizabeth’s
name ID increases, positive responses of support from voters have also grown among both Republican and Democrat
voters, so much so that the Cook’s Political Report downgraded its rating in the traditionally Democratic district in favor
of Elizabeth.
The campaign will continue to tap into general feeling in the district among voters is that they are being underrepresented
and taken advantage in various important issues based on polling, including the lack of water, the resistance to an
immigration plan that works for the district, and an expensive healthcare system. Elizabeth will be the best option for
voters who resonate with the feeling of deep dissatisfaction in liberal Washington elite and career politicians like Jim
Costa who have failed to produce results for the Valley.

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