HOME Survey

Housing Opportunities and

Market Experience
September 2018

National Association of REALTORS® Research Group

 Introduction
The Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) report was created
to monitor consumer sentiment about the housing market. This report covers
core topics that will be tracked on a monthly basis such as views on if now is a
good time to buy or sell a home, the perception of home price changes, perceived
ability to qualify for a mortgage, and the outlook on the U.S. economy.

Additionally, current topical trends are covered in the HOME survey. In Q3 2018,
respondents were asked about neighborhood considerations when purchasing a
home, importance of having good schools, and the number of homes available for
sale in their community.

On a monthly basis renters and homeowners are asked about their personal
financial outlook which is indexed on a scale of 0 to 100. Data will be reported
not only on ownership status, but by age, income, and type of geographic location.

Additional topics are examined in depth on

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/ including whether housing as a good
financial investment, whether homeownership is part of the American Dream, and
if renters want to become homeowners.

This HOME survey is released on a quarterly basis.

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Good Time to Buy a
Home
 In the third quarter of 2018, 63 percent of people believe that now is a good time
to buy a home, which is the lowest percent recorded, since the collection started
in 2015. Thirty-nine percent believe that strongly and 24 percent believe that
moderately.
 Only 37 percent of people believe that now is not a good time to buy a home.
 Across all groups surveyed, the majority feel that now is a good time to buy a
home. Not surprisingly with rapid home price acceleration, those who are
currently renting or living with someone else, those who are under 34 years of
age, and those who live in urban areas are less confident that now is a good time
to buy.

Good Time to Buy a Home, Strongly or Moderately

80%
75% 74%
71% 70% 71% 72% 72%
70% 68% 68%
63%
60% 31% 23%
32% 28% 25% 28% 31% 29%
30% 29%
24%

40%

44% 45% 47%

20% 42% 43% 43% 41% 43%
38% 39% 39%

%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018
Strongly Moderately

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Good Time to Buy a
Home
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
A Good 52% 58% 65% 73% 70%
Time
Not a Good 48% 43% 35% 27% 30%
Time

Household $50,000 to More than

Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
A Good Time 59% 64% 68%

Not a Good Time 41% 36% 32%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West

A Good Time 64% 67% 66% 55%

Not a Good Time 36% 33% 34% 45%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban

A Good Time 71% 63% 57%

Not a Good Time 29% 38% 43%

Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone

A Good Time 73% 45% 49%

Not a Good Time 27% 55% 51%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Good Time to Sell a
Home
 Seventy-seven percent of people believe that now is a good time to sell a home,
which is the highest percent recorded, since the collection started in 2015. This is
over a 10 percentage point increase from 63 percent in Q3 2016.
 Twenty-two percent believe that now is not a good time to sell a home.
 Those who are in the West (85 percent) are most likely to think that now is a
good time to sell a home, which is also the least likely region to think that now is a
good time to buy a home.

Now is Good Time To Sell, Strongly or Moderately

100%

80% 77%
75% 71% 74% 75%
69% 71%
63% 62%
61% 27%
60% 30% 29%
56% 29% 28% 32%
30%
26% 27%
40% 29%
28%

50%
42% 45% 43% 42% 46%
20% 37% 39%
32% 35%
28%

%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018

Strongly Moderately
2018 NAR HOME Survey
 Good Time to Sell a
Home
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
A Good 71% 83% 73% 83% 78%
Time
Not a Good 29% 17% 27% 17% 22%
Time

Household $50,000 to More than

Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
A Good Time 65% 81% 86%

Not a Good Time 35% 19% 14%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West

A Good Time 72% 78% 76% 85%

Not a Good Time 28% 22% 24% 15%

Location:
Rural Suburban Urban
A Good Time 79% 79% 74%

Not a Good Time 21% 21% 26%

Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone

A Good Time 82% 70% 69%

Not a Good Time 18% 30% 31%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Home Prices in the
Past 12 Months
 Seventy percent of people believe that prices have gone up within their
communities in the last 12 months, which is an increase from Q2 2018 at 68
percent. Twenty-five percent believe prices have stayed the same and five percent
believe prices have gone down.
 Those who are in the West, those with incomes over $100,000, and those 55 to
64 years in age are most likely to report that prices have increased in their
communities.

Home Prices in the Last 12 Months In Local

Community
100%
7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%
11% 11% 9% 10%

28% 25%
80% 30% 30% 31%
33% 33%
36% 34% 35%
39%
60%

40%
64% 68% 70%
63% 63%
55% 60% 60%
50% 53% 56%
20%

0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018
Gone Up Stayed the Same Gone Down

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Home Prices in the
Past 12 Months
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
Gone Up 69% 73% 67% 75% 69%

Gone 10% 3% 6% 3% 4%
Down
Stayed the 21% 23% 29% 23% 26%
Same

Household $50,000 to More than

Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
Gone Up 64% 71% 78%

Gone Down 5% 5% 4%

Stayed the Same 30% 23% 18%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West

Gone Up 68% 66% 67% 80%

Gone Down 6% 5% 7% 4%

Stayed the Same 27% 29% 27% 16%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban

Gone Up 65% 73% 70%

Gone Down 4% 6% 6%

Stayed the Same 31% 22% 24%

Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone

Gone Up 71% 68% 66%

Gone Down 4% 9% 9%

Stayed the Same 25% 23% 25%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Home Prices in the
Next Six Months
 Forty-one percent of respondents believe that prices will stay the same in their
communities in the next six months, which is a slight increase from the previous
quarter. Fifty-three percent believe prices will increase in the next six months and
six percent believe prices will go down in the next six months.
 Those who live in the West, earn $100,000 or more, and rent are most likely to
believe prices will go up in their communities.

Home Prices in the Next 6 Months In Local Community

100%
9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6%

80%
41% 42% 40% 41%
42% 41% 43%
47% 48% 47% 47%
60%

40%

52% 53% 51% 53% 55% 53%

51%
20% 44% 45% 44% 44%

0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018
Will Go Up Stay the Same Will Go Down

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Home Prices in the
Next Six Months
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
Will Go Up 52% 55% 52% 52% 54%

Will Go 7% 5% 7% 5% 6%
Down
Stay the 41% 40% 41% 42% 41%
Same

Household $50,000 to More than

Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
Will Go Up 52% 54% 58%

Will Go Down 7% 5% 7%

Stay the Same 42% 42% 36%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West

Will Go Up 49% 49% 52% 59%

Will Go Down 5% 5% 7% 5%

Stay the Same 45% 45% 41% 36%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban

Will Go Up 51% 54% 54%

Will Go Down 5% 6% 7%

Stay the Same 44% 40% 39%

Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone

Will Go Up 52% 56% 49%

Will Go Down 6% 7% 5%

Stay the Same 42% 37% 46%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Qualify for a Mortgage
 Among those who currently do not own a home, 28 percent believe it would be
very difficult (up from 26 percent last quarter) and 31 percent believe it would be
somewhat difficult to qualify for a mortgage given their current financial situation.
 Seventy-four percent of those who earn under $50,000 believe it would be at least
somewhat difficult to qualify for a mortgage compared to 29 percent of those
earning over $100,000.

With Household’s Current Financial Situation, Non-

Owners’ Perceived Difficulty Qualifying for a Mortgage

100%
14% 16% 15% 16% 17% 20% 20% 20%
21% 19% 21%

80%
23% 20%
25% 23% 23% 19% 21% 17%
22%
23% 25%
60%

36% 30%
33% 30% 31% 30% 31% 28%
29% 31%
40% 28%

20%
30% 30% 30% 31% 31% 32% 34%
29% 27% 26% 28%

0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018
Very Difficult Somewhat Difficult Not Very Difficult Not At All Difficult
2018 NAR HOME Survey
 Qualify for a Mortgage
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
Very Difficult 20% 29% 32% 26% 49%

Somewhat Difficult 33% 34% 30% 30% 15%

Not Very Difficult 32% 15% 12% 15% 12%

Not At All Difficult 15% 22% 27% 29% 24%

Household $50,000 to More than

Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
Very Difficult 38% 17% 10%

Somewhat Difficult 36% 31% 19%

Not Very Difficult 18% 30% 23%

Not At All Difficult 8% 22% 48%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West

Very Difficult 25% 27% 27% 32%

Somewhat Difficult 35% 27% 29% 32%

Not Very Difficult 15% 29% 26% 15%

Not At All Difficult 25% 18% 19% 22%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban

Very Difficult 28% 27% 29%

Somewhat Difficult 28% 31% 32%

Not Very Difficult 17% 24% 20%

Not At All Difficult 28% 18% 19%

Tenure: Rent Live with someone

Very Difficult 27% 30%

Somewhat Difficult 31% 28%

Not Very Difficult 22% 21%

Not At All Difficult 20% 21%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Outlook on
U.S. Economy
 Sixty percent of people believe the U.S. economy is improving, an increase from 58
percent in Q2 2018.
 Optimism is highest in the West, among those who live with someone, and those
who earn $100,000 or more.
 Fifty-seven percent of those 34 years of age or younger believe the economy is
improving, the lowest of all age groups.
 Fifty-two percent of those in urban areas believe the economy is improving
compared to 67 percent in rural areas.

Outlook on the U.S. Economy

100%

80% 38% 40% 42% 40%

46% 46% 47% 48%
52% 51%
52%

60%

40%
62% 60% 58% 60%
54% 54% 53% 52%
48% 49%
20% 48%

0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018
Improving Not Improving

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Outlook on
U.S. Economy
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
Improving 57% 62% 62% 58% 58%
Not Improving 43% 38% 39% 42% 42%

Household
Income: Under $50,000 $50,000 to $100,000 More than $100,000
Improving 49% 64% 67%

Not Improving 51% 36% 33%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West

Improving 57% 60% 60% 62%

Not Improving 43% 40% 41% 39%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban

Improving 67% 60% 52%

Not Improving 33% 40% 46%

Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone

Improving 64% 47% 65%

Not Improving 36% 53% 35%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Considerations When Choosing
A Neighborhood
 In Q3 2018, respondents were asked about considerations when choosing a
new neighborhood, the importance of highly ranked schools, and the number of
homes available for sale in their neighborhood.
 Proximity to friends and family (25 percent), jobs (24 percent) and schools of
choice (20 percent) were considered the most important when choosing a
new neighborhood.

Considerations When Choosing A Neighborhood

Proximity to friends and family 25%

Proximity to job and short

24%
commute

Proximity to schools of choice 20%

Close to parks, trails, and dog

6%
parks
Close to entertainment, activities,
6%
restaurant and shopping

Walkability 3%

Access to public transportation 3%

None/Other 14%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Considerations When Choosing
A Neighborhood
Under $50,000 to More than
Household Income: $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
Proximity to friends and family 30% 24% 21%
Proximity to job and short commute 23% 27% 22%
Proximity to schools of choice 14% 21% 27%
Close to parks, trails and dog parks 6% 6% 6%
Close to entertainment activities, restaurant, and shopping 7% 6% 7%
Walkability 3% 2% 3%
Access to public transportation 4% 1% 3%

None/Other 13% 14% 12%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban

31% 25% 21%
Proximity to friends and family
20% 25% 25%
Proximity to job and short commute
15% 25% 15%
Proximity to schools of choice
8% 5% 5%
Close to parks, trails and dog parks
3% 5% 12%
Close to entertainment activities, restaurant, and shopping
2% 3% 4%
Walkability
Access to public transportation 2% 2% 5%
21% 10% 14%
None/Other

Live with
Tenure: Own Rent Someone
26% 22% 32%
Proximity to friends and family
21% 29% 29%
Proximity to job and short commute
23% 14% 16%
Proximity to schools of choice
5% 8% 4%
Close to parks, trails and dog parks
6% 8% 5%
Close to entertainment activities, restaurant, and shopping
2% 4% 3%
Walkability
Access to public transportation 2% 5% 2%
15% 12% 9%
None/Other

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Importance of Highly
Rated Schools
 Over two-thirds of respondents reported that highly rated schools are
important.
 Over three-quarters of those who are 34 or under and those between 35-44
expressed importance of having highly rated schools.
 Fifty-eight percent of those who earn $100,000 or more find it very important
to have high rated schools.

Importance of Highly Rated Schools

Not at all
important
19%

Very important
Not very 47%
important
11%

Somewhat
important
23%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Importance of Highly
Rated Schools
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
Very important 43% 56% 49% 45% 46%
Somewhat 33% 22% 20% 21% 16%
important
Not very 13% 10% 7% 11% 11%
important
Not at all 11% 13% 23% 23% 25%
important

Not sure 1% * 36% 39% 33%

$50,000 to
Household Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 More than $100,000
Very important 41% 46% 58%
Somewhat important 25% 24% 19%
Not very important 12% 11% 8%

Not at all important 21% 20% 15%

Not sure 1% * *

Tenure: Rural Suburban Urban

Very important 48% 35% 44%
Somewhat important 23% 25% 26%
Not very important 8% 15% 10%
Not at all important 20% 25% 33%

Not sure * 1% 43%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Home Available for Sale
Over the Past Six Months
 Fifty-six percent of respondents observed that the number of homes available
for sale in their neighborhood has remained the same over the past six months.
Twenty-three percent reported more than usual number of homes on the
market and 15 percent reported a less than usual number of homes on the
market.
 Close to a quarter (24 percent) of those who live in a suburban communities
observed more homes available and 14 percent observed a decrease in
availability.

Homes Available for Sale Over the Past Six Months

Not
sure
6%

More than usual

23%

Less than usual

About the same 15%
amount
56%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Homes Available in the
Past Six Months

Region: Northeast Midwest South West

More than usual 22% 23% 22% 24%
Less than usual 12% 16% 14% 17%
About the same 59% 55% 58% 55%
Not sure 7% 6% 6% 4%

$50,000 to
Household Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 More than $100,000
More than usual 23% 23% 22%
Less than usual 14% 15% 15%
About the same 56% 57% 60%

Not sure 7% 5% 4%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban

More than usual 21% 24% 23%
Less than usual 16% 14% 16%
About the same 57% 56% 57%
Not sure 7% 5% 5%

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Personal Financial
Outlook Index
Index ranges between 0 and 100: 0 = all respondents believe their personal
financial situation will be worse in 6 months; 50 = all respondents believe their
personal financial situation will be about the same in 6 months; 100 = all
respondents believe their personal situation will be better in 6 months.

Personal Financial Outlook by Tenure

75

70

65
62.7
62.6
60 62.1

55

50

All U.S. Households Own Rent

Personal Financial Outlook by Age of Household Head

80

70.6
70
63.4
62.6
60
62

54.1
50

40

All U.S. Households 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Personal Financial
Outlook Index
Index ranges between 0 and 100: 0 = all respondents believe their personal
financial situation will be worse in 6 months; 50 = all respondents believe their
personal financial situation will be about the same in 6 months; 100 = all
respondents believe their personal situation will be better in 6 months.

Personal Financial Outlook by Income

75

70
67.2
65 64.1
62.6
60
57.4
56.6
55

50

45

All U.S. Households Under 30K 30K-50K 50-75K 75K+

Personal Financial Outlook by Area

75

70

65 64.5
63.8
60 62.6
58.6
55

50

45

All U.S. Households Urban Suburban Rural

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 Methodology
The survey was conducted by an established survey research firm, TechnoMetrica
Market Intelligence. Each month, July through September 2018, a sample of U.S.
households was surveyed via random-digit dial, including cell phones and land
lines. Using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system,
TechnoMetrica conducts interviews from their call center in Ramsey, NJ.

Regional quotas are used, based on four census regions and nine census divisions.

Each month approximately 900 qualified households responded to the survey.

The data compiled for this report and is based on 2,731 completed telephone
interviews. For monthly results, the margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3
percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

©2018 National Association of REALTORS®

All Rights Reserved.
May not be reprinted in whole or in part without permission of the
National Association of REALTORS®.
For reprint information, contact data@realtors.org.

2018 NAR HOME Survey

 The National Association of REALTORS®, is America’s largest trade association, representing
1.3 million members, including NAR’s institutes, societies and councils, involved in all aspects of
the real estate industry. NAR membership includes brokers, salespeople, property managers,
appraisers, counselors and others engaged in both residential and commercial real estate.

The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a

real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS®
and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

Working for America’s property owners, the National Association provides a facility for
professional development, research and exchange of information among its members
and to the public and government for the purpose of preserving the free enterprise
system and the right to own real property.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

RESEARCH GROUP
The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS® Research Group is to collect
and disseminate timely, accurate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct
economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policymakers
and the media in a professional and accessible manner.

To find out about other products from NAR’s Research Group, visit
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Research Group
500 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
202-383-1000
data@realtors.org

2018 NAR HOME Survey