CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSIONS
Landslides are dangerous, disruptive to the development and costly to repair. Hence they
should be accurately assessed. The most common approach used in the deterministic
analysis of slope stability problem is based on the limit equilibrium method. The factor of
safety is calculated comparing the shear stress mobilized along the trial failure surface
and the shear strength . The same factor of safety value is assumed to be exist along the
failure surface and it does not provide any information regarding the magnitude of strain.
In deciding appropriate value for a factor of safety due consideration should be given to
reliability of parameters and consequences of failure.

The uncertainties associated with the design values of soil strength , ground water
condition and other input data used in the analysis are not taken in to account
systematically in the usual stability analysis with the limit equilibrium approach.

In principal, it would be possible to estimate the probability of failure of a slope by

regarding all parameters as random variables and assessing the reliability in terms of
probability of failure. This is the approach adopted in the probabilistic analysis.

The shallow translational mode of failure is an important mode of slope failure in infinite
slopes, specially as a result of heavy rainfall. This research has been concentrated on the
shallow translational mode of slope failures.

A large portion of the soil surface cover exists in nature is in an unsaturated state and to
deal with slope stability problems in such soil regions it is not sufficient to apply the
theories based on saturated soil mechanics. Thus the unsaturated soil mechanics theories
are also applied in stability analysis. Finally, the effects of rainfall on stability of slope
was analysed based on the wetting band approach. Two hypothetical examples
representative of natural lateritic slopes in Sri Lanka have been analysed both in a
deterministic framework and a probabilistic framework.

Deterministic analysis of saturated hypothetical lateritic slopes shows that the factor of
safety decreases with the rise of water table. The lateritic soil strength parameter set one
with higherfinecontent and lower gravel content has high factor of safety values against

92
failure for each and every water table and trial failure surface condition. Thus, the results
illustrated that the contribution of the cohesion is more significant in this mode of failure.

The same hypothetical examples used for the saturated analysis were used for the
unsaturated slope analysis. The factor of safety value increased considerably for all trial
failure surfaces with the increase of depth to the water table for trial failure surface, in the
unsaturated analysis. Similarly, as the percentage value of suction profile increased the
factor of safety increased. As in the analysis of saturated case, the soil parameter setl has
higher factor of safety values than soil parameter set 2 for all cases for all water table
levels and for all percentage suction profiles.

In all analysis it was seen that the factor of safety decreases and the probability of failure
increases with the increase of the depth to the assumed trial failure surface. It could be
said generally that for trial failure surfaces greater than 4 m the shallow translational
analysis is not appropriate and another form of non-circular analysis which could account
for end effects of failure surface, should be used.

In all the analysis it could be seen that as the factor of safety decreased with the changes
of variables, the probability of failure increases. However, the computed probability of
failure has more information than the factor of safety, as it has accounted for the
uncertainties in the parameters used. Acceptable values for probability of failure can be
adopted based on the consequences of failure.

The simple study of the propagation of wettingfrontwith the rainfall indicated that with
the increase of the length of the duration of the rainfall, the depth the wettingfronthas
propagated increased. Accordingly, the factor of safety decreased and the probability of
failure increased.

Due to the limitation in time only a very simple basic study could be done in this context.
It would be very useful if a much morerigorousmodel can be used after obtaining the
necessary data.
If the rainfall pattern of the area is accurately known and the wetting front propagation
can be accurately modeled through an appropriate model, the annual indicative
probability, could be estimated. This would be the final outcome of a probabilistic
analysis of the stability of a slope.

93
 REFFERENCES
1. Dwight, A., Sangrey, M., Kingsley, 0.,Harrop-Williams, and Jeffrey, A.
Klaiber ; Predicting ground-water response to precipitation; Journal of
Geotechnical Engineering; Volume 110; No: 07; July 1984; pp 957-975.
2. Fredlund, D.G.; Chapter 12; Slope stability analysis incorporating the
effect of soil suction; Geotechnical Engineering and Geomorphology,
Slope stability; Edited by Anderson, M. G., and Richards, K.S.
3. Geotechnical Manual for Slopes; Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil
^ Engineering Department, Hong Kong.
4. Gasmo, J.M., Rahardjo, H., Leong, E.C.; Infiltration effects on stability of
a residual soil slope; Computers and Geotechnics; 2000; pp 145-165.
5. Harianto Rahardjo,Leong Eng Choon,Michael S. Deutscher, Jason M.
Gasmo,Tang Sek Kwan; Rainfall-Induced Slope Failures; Geotechnical
Engineering Monograph 3; N T U - P W D Geotechnical Research
Centre,Nanyang Technological University, Singapore;2000.
6. Lim, T. T., Rahardjo, M. F.,Chang, M.F. and Fredlund, D. G.; Effect of
Rainfall on Matric Suctions in a residual soil slope; Canada Geotechnical
Journal 33;1996; pp 618-628.
7. Michael Duncan, J.; Factor of Safety and Reliability in Geotechnical
Engineering; Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering;
April 2000; pp 307-316.
8. Scott A. Anderson, and Nicholas Sitar; Analysis of rainfall - Induced
Debris Flows; Journal of Geotechnical Engineering;July 1995;
pp 544 - 552.
9. Walker, B.; Landslide Risk Management Concepts and Guide line.
Journal and News of the Australian Geomechanics Society (AGS);
Volume 35; Nomber 1; March 200; pp 49-92.
10. Yip, C. P.; A simplified approach to predict groundwater responses to
0t rainfall;Slope Engineering in Hong Kong; 1998; pp 111-128.

94