3.

HAZARDS

Accra faces a number of natural and man-made hazards such as floods, earthquakes,
droughts, beach erosion (accelerated by sea-level rise due to global warming), fires,
diseases, and epidemics. Effective risk management and good governance could
minimize loss of lives and property. Poverty and lack of resources, awareness and
determination to manage these risks increase the vulnerability of Accra and its citizens.
Current inaction will only defer these risks unfairly to future generations.

For the assessment of these hazards and risks, it is important to have an objective
means for analyzing the threats posed by different risks. The governing equation for
risk is:

Risk = Regional Sum of the Local Products of (Hazard * Assets * Fragility)

Through quantification of each of the three risk factors (hazard, assets, fragility) it is
possible to determine an objective, plan-oriented system for managing risk within the
context of the municipal infrastructure and the city’s built environment, both public and
private.

In Accra, the natural hazards that are most likely to inflict large losses are floods and
earthquakes. For this reason, the following sections discuss these two hazards in detail.
Other chapters of this report focus on man-made hazards such as fire, epidemics, and
public health.

Natural Hazards and Risks

Assets at risk can be persons and/or privately or publicly-owned property. Hazardous
events can inflict financially and socially quantifiable damage to them. The government
has significant investment in municipal infrastructure. Examples of exposed assets are
roads, hydraulic structures (such as bridges across rivers, culverts, or dams), water
supply and distribution systems, sanitary sewer facilities, and others. Electrical power

66
lines often traverse floodplains since floodplains conveniently provide open space for the
rights of way of such infrastructure systems.

In terms of private assets, Accra has thousands of residential and commercial

developments along the banks of both natural streams and concrete-lined waterways.
In developed countries (like the United States) it has become practice to prohibit new
development within the limits of the 100-year floodplain. This can be waived in the US if
the owner shows proof of insurance through the Federal Emergency Management
Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program, and complies with construction codes that
vertically move the essential portions of a building and its utilities above the 100-year
flood level. No such program currently exists in Ghana. Furthermore, exact demarcation
of the 100-year floodplain does not exist. For this reason, it is difficult to quantify the
amount of private assets at risk from flooding or prevent new construction in
floodplains. Reports of flooding and earthquake damage in past decades clearly indicate
that significant assets and investments in Accra are exposed to natural hazards, both in
the public and private sectors.

Municipal, commercial, and residential assets can be rated in terms of their fragility to
the different hazards. All aspects of physical construction can be assessed in terms of
durability and resistance to destruction by hazardous events. Different structures differ
in their fragility in response to different hazards. For instance, overhead power lines
with properly anchored pylons exhibit little or no fragility toward the threat of floods.
However, the same power line pylons may still be constructed in a manner that could
make them fragile to earthquake hazards. Conversely, any built system could exhibit
extreme durability with respect to the earthquake threat, but its landscape could be at
risk of denudation, or severe erosion. Impact damage may occur by floating debris in
high-velocity floodwaters. To incorporate fragility into the risk management equation, it
is necessary to assess individual structures or groups of structures with respect to their
specific fragilities as a function of type and level of hazard.

Once fragility, assets, and hazards are quantified, then it is possible to have an objective
system of value-based decision making within the concept of risk management. Steps
can be taken to minimize risk, and priorities can be set to achieve this minimization.

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Practices such as land use planning, implementation of zoning laws, and watershed
management can be used to minimize risk by lowering the above defined, risk-
contributing product of hazard times assets in the risk equation. Manipulation of the
combinations of fragility and assets, on the other hand, is achieved by developing
proper building codes and - equally important - by enforcement of these codes at all
phases of design and construction. This requires training, personnel, and good
governance with tenacity and political willpower.

Another form of risk minimization occurs through disaster preparedness. It does not
avoid the initial damage, but prevents secondary losses after an event has occurred.
There are two basic elements to preparation for impending disasters. The first is of
long-term nature, the second of short-term nature, but both involve disaster education
and communication. Information plays an important public role before, during, and after
hazard events. In the time long before a disaster, public education is an effective
source of reducing risk and vulnerabilities. Education can be provided by the
government to the people by many means, including radio and television broadcasts
newspaper advertisements, billboards, and government-funded publications. Ghana has
demonstrated its ability to educate its citizens on issues related to public health, and
similar strategies could succeed for other types of issues. Broadcasts of warnings in
advance of forecastable disasters, like imminent rain, and flooding, can deal with short-
term issues of ‘preventative maintenance’ (removing debris, moving essential goods and
people to higher grounds). Informed and effective communication during the hours
immediately preceding or during ongoing disasters can save lives and property.

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FLOODING AND DRAINAGE

The City of Accra is subject to flooding on an almost yearly basis, and there has been
only limited academic discourse on the pressing social issues resulting from the
inadequate drainage infrastructure. For a city to develop both commercially and
culturally, a functional system of infrastructure must be in place. It is important to
devote fiscal resources for construction of adequate drainage facilities with sufficient
capacity to hold runoff.

A sound system of storm drains and waterways benefits to the population in two main
ways. First, it leads to a more hygienic and healthier community. Standing water leads
to breeding grounds for mosquitoes, in addition to harboring fecal coliform bacteria, and
other bacterial pathogens. In a drainage system that does not allow the ponding of
water, free-flowing water prevents mosquito breeding and stagnant conditions
associated with bacterial breeding. Second, an established drainage network allows for
more-developable property and road networks. (United States drainage design allows
for open transportation on arterial roadways during 100 year flooding events, which
provides access for emergency vehicles that are often needed during flooding crises).
Furthermore, efficient drainage design that maximizes the available conveyance area of
drainage channels allows for more real estate to be developed in areas that are free
from flood hazard. Again, drawing on the American model, this is similar to the practice
of reclamation of land along the floodway fringe, within specifications of the National
Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The benefits of having property that is outside the
bounds of a studied floodplain are its being conducive for commercial enterprises, but
also its role as a haven for the citizens of Accra, many of whom make their homes along
the bounds of these waterways.

Existing Conditions
Accra lies on a coastal plain along the Gulf of Guinea, and has a tropical climate. Both
of these factors create an environment in which flooding is likely to occur. There is a
yearly rainy season, in the months of late spring and early summer, generally peaking in
June. The storms during this time of year are not necessarily of long duration, but they

69
can be of high intensity. It is these storms that need to be accounted for in flood
planning. These storms provide a large amount of flow over a short time, and
consistently overwhelm existing drainage structures.

The generally gentle topography does not provide for significant hydraulic gradient,
which is the slope that the water feels as it moves downhill. Since the majority of the
city is low-lying, and close to coastal elevations, water needs considerable unimpeded
room to travel, en route to the sea. Simply stated, the City of Accra will always be
subject to flooding, and the best defense against this is to allow adequate room for
floodwaters to drain to the Gulf of Guinea. The Hydrological Services Department is
charged with planning, building, and maintaining all of the waterways in the City of
Accra.

Analysis and Evaluation

The government currently has made offsets along the banks of streams in order to
prohibit development. The Hydrological Services Department allows for a 20 ft no-build
easement for ‘small streams’, and a 100 ft. easement for ‘large rivers.’ This serves to
fulfill the basic concept of drainage infrastructure. Land must be allotted for flooding,
and larger swaths of land should be allowed for larger drainage basins. Academic
methods are available to further quantify the limits of flood-prone areas. Determining
the extent of the floodplain, however, is only the first step. It is difficult to enforce, yet
it is imperative development be kept out of the floodplain, where it flourishes today.

The waterways of Accra are fronted by dense residential development. Land near the
commercial center of the city has long been heavily developed; thus settlement
continues on the only remaining space near the city - within floodplains on the banks of
the streams of Accra. This puts intense pressure on both human settlements (at risk of
flood damage) and the national environment, as increased population and ground cover
decrease absorptive surface area, and the waste produced by human communities
infiltrates the watershed. In Accra, this is most noticeable in the form of garbage
choking drainage channels, contributing to poor health and increased flood severity.

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Goals and Objectives
The City of Accra lies on a flood-prone coastal area due to both heavy rainstorms and
flat topography. Several problems have historically worsened this flooding. Heavy
development along floodplains, increasing urbanization, and rubbish in watercourses
have been the three biggest determinants of recent flooding.

These problems can be solved, or at least mitigated, and the city is in the process of
taking some mitigating measures to lessen the harm of flooding. In addition to existing
capital improvements and government/citizen partnerships to clean the channels, there
are steps that Accra can take to insure a healthier, safer standard of living for all. This
includes the incorporation of objective floodplain analysis and mapping. The
government and citizens can then use the maps to determine a rational outline of flood
zone priorities and policies. After these are set, the difficult task of implementation and
enforcement begins.

The government must dedicate resources to four aspects of flood control. The first two
aspects – routine channel maintenance and drainage education – must be developed
and perpetuated. These continuous processes are vital to the minimization of flood
damage. Citizen participation must be incorporated throughout to guarantee local
activism and support. The third aspect, capital improvements, must continue so that all
areas of Accra can benefit from the improved drainage infrastructure currently exhibited
on selected areas of the Odaw River. The fourth element is land use zoning and
watershed protection. This involves strict controls on upstream development and
consideration of drainage impacts throughout the entire watershed. Additionally,
downstream channel improvements can lessen upstream flooding.

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However, channel improvements require additional right-of-way, which can be difficult
to secure. This enters the complex issues of land ownership and land title, the right of
landowners to freely sell land to developers, and the government to intervene by
“eminent domain,” albeit with fair remuneration to the rightful landowners and their
constituencies. However, these measures and improvements, coupled with drainage
mapping, prioritizing, education, maintenance, can lead to a better, cleaner and safer
Accra.

Aside from channel engineering, there are certain measurable goals that the city should
strive for to limit the harm caused by flood events. It is imperative that there be a
continuous effort to monitor and maintain the existing channels. Trash must not be
allowed to be deposited or to accumulate in the existing streams or channels. There
must be regular dredging of the channels to insure that these streams meet their design
capacity throughout the duration of the rainy season. To reach this ultimate goal, the
city must come up with, and find the resources for, a realistic and effective drainage
maintenance plan. This plan should be crafted in cooperation with residents living near
each of the streams in Accra. For successful implementation, the city should commit to
use of capital equipment (such as backhoes, front-end loaders, and dump trucks), and
the neighboring citizens should commit to regular cleanup dates. Dredging once before
the rainy season may be adequate for the governmental portion of the program, while
monthly cleanup on the part of the citizens is a reasonable amount of effort for channel
cleaning. An enforceable system of penalties for non-compliance, or – conversely - of
incentives for effective compliance (e.g.: community credits for other civic community
projects) should be considered.

In order to maintain the drainage waterways, there is a need for budgetary commitment
on the part of the government. Financing is needed not only for periodic drainage
maintenance, but also for capital improvement projects that increase the capacity and
durability of existing waterways. An example of one such project is the current
improvements on the Odaw River, downstream of the neighborhood of Alajo. The
government has hired a private contractor to dredge the channel, expand the width of
the channel bottom, and shore the sides of the river with concrete lining. Outlays such

72
as this are needed at selected points across the city, and it is imperative that the
government judiciously spend its money on such projects.

To maximize Ghana’s limited budget for flood control and drainage, responsible parties
should devise a ranking system of drainage needs in Accra. Formulation of this plan
need not be expensive. The main components should include an objective system of
accounting, in which a combination of technical expertise, citizen feedback, and
available government expenditure would lead to a prioritized listing of needed drainage
projects, coupled with preliminary cost estimates and a time frame for completion.

Finally, there are two goals that the city must strive for. The first is that of prohibition
of development in the floodplains. Once Accra has delineated floodplains, the next step
is that of declaring (and enforcing) a no-build area on the banks of the streams of Accra.
This can be a difficult problem socially and politically, given the land tenure system, the
demand for living space near and in Accra and the history of free development along
stream banks. One effort to discourage floodplain development, and the second and
final goal of this section, is governmental programs to further floodplain education. In
Accra (and other parts of sub-Saharan Africa), there are large government campaigns to
control the spread of HIV/AIDS through citizen education. The government has
sponsored public literature, advertising billboards, and radio and television campaigns to
educate the population. Similar concepts can be expanded to the realm of drainage
infrastructure and flooding hazards. Active campaigning against disposal of trash in
waterways, coupled with government commitment to solid waste collection, can lead to
cleaner channels, which is the single greatest need of floodplain management for Accra.

Current Efforts
In conjunction with donor organizations, the government is currently spending money
on selected capital improvements across the city. It is important for the future of Accra
that these efforts continue, provided they are based on sound scientific and technical
information for increased future run-off from urban development farther upstream.
Some in Accra have designated clean-up days, in which residents come together to
remove litter from local streams that front their neighborhoods.

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Methodology / Definition of Terms
Removal of the rubbish in the channels that is mentioned above is just one aspect of the
overall drainage design process. The following steps outline the process for hydrologic
and hydraulic drainage engineering, based on the rational method for hydrology and
backwater hydraulic modeling. The steps explained below are customized to meet the
parameters of the existing conditions in Accra.

The governing equation for the rational hydraulic method is:

Q=C*I*A

Q is the water discharge, in ft3 per second

C is a coefficient of absorption for the watershed (dimensionless)
I is the storm intensity, in inches per hour
A is the area of the watershed, in acres

This equation must be used in accordance with U.S. Customary units, as it is not
dimensionally consistent (i.e., the units on the left side of the equation are in ft3 per
second, but the units on the right side of the equation are in acre-inches per hour).
The rational method is often rightly criticized for being an oversimplification of a
complex physical process, especially when used on a large scale. With larger
watersheds (approaching 300 acres or above, which is the case in some of the Accra
drainage basins), it is customary to determine storm volume by means of a unit
hydrograph. However, these methods depend on field-determined coefficients
(generated in the United States by the Soil Conservation Service). There is not, at the
present time, sufficient information available for Accra to correlate data with U.S.
equations that predict absorption for watersheds of various characteristics. Therefore,
drainage analysis of Accra is currently limited to the rational method.

It is first necessary to outline the drainage area in a watershed (A in the above

equation). This is done using topographic data, by determining the land area from
which flows downhill to a given river bottom. Accra currently has sufficient topographic

74
maps to determine areas. The area that is outlined is then scaled or entered into a
spatial software program to determine the total numerical area of the watershed.

The next factor in the rational method is the rainfall intensity, I (in inches / hour). The
Meteorological Services Department of Ghana has compiled plots of intensity in the form
of Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves. These plots list the amount of rainfall
against time for storms of varying frequencies for various geographic areas. For
watersheds within the City of Accra, the Meteorological Services Department studied 24
years of storm data, and made a ranking of storms and their return period based on a
Gumbel distribution process (further explained by Dankwa). In order to determine the
intensity, it is necessary to calculate the time of concentration of the watershed.

The time of concentration is the travel time for surface flow from the most hydraulically
remote point in the watershed to reach the most downstream extremity of the
watershed. Several assumptions can be made in order to calculate this time. First, in
the case of Accra, it is assumed that it will take an initial 15 minutes for the ground to
become saturated, creating conditions leading to runoff. Then the path of water from
the farthest point in the watershed to the downstream edge of the watershed is plotted.
For areas of this path that are undeveloped, it is assumed that the water travels 1.5 – 2
feet per second based on a 1% ground slope, and 2 – 2.5 ft/sec based on a 2 – 3%
ground slope. Once water reaches a paved area (in the form of a street gutter or storm
drain), its velocity is increased by approximately 1 ft/sec, again taking into consideration
the ground slope of the gutter or storm drain. Finally, once water reaches a natural
channel, it is necessary to make an estimate of the flow velocity in the stream, based on
slope and cross-sectional area. In the waterways that traverse Accra, a flow ranging
from 5 -10 ft/sec can be assumed.

After the flow time is determined, then the intensity is read off the IDF curve for the
storm frequency desired. In the U.S., the Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA) considers the value of the 100 year storm (the probability of such a storm
occurring in a particular year is 1%) for its National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). It
is suggested that a 100-year storm provides an appropriate logical return period for use
in Ghana as well. Therefore, the value of I (100) is taken from the IDF Curve.

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The last factor in the rational method equation is that of C, the runoff coefficient.
Values of C range from 0 to 1 (C =1 would mean that all water runs off, whereas C =0
would mean that all water is absorbed). Typically, non-developed areas use C =0.3,
residential C =0.5, and built-up commercial uses C =0.9. Most watersheds in Accra are
heavily urbanized, yet contain undeveloped areas in the upstream reaches, so the runoff
coefficient will be somewhere in between these three values. C can be estimated by pro-
rating its value, based on the percent of land that is undeveloped, residential, or
commercial. In the case of Accra, the value of C is approximately equal to 0.6, which is
then multiplied by 1.25 as a correction factor used in high frequency storms (such as the
100-year storm).

At this point, C * I * A yields a 100-year flow.

Next, the governing equation for stream hydraulics, Manning’s Equation, is applied.
Manning’s equation is:
Q = (1.49 / N) * A * (R0.66)* (S0.5)
Q is the water discharge, in cubic feet per second
N is a dimensionless coefficient, used to estimate roughness in the channel
A is the cross-sectional area of the channel, in square feet
R is the hydraulic radius, in feet, of the channel, which is the cross-sectional channel
area divided by the wetted perimeter (the distance across the channel in which water is
touching the surface of the channel).
S is the longitudinal slope of the channel, in feet / feet

The governing principle of stream hydraulics is that of conservation of energy. Simply

stated, water maintains its flow based on elevation, pressure, and velocity energy, and
is slowed by friction losses in the channel, which are described by Manning’s equation.
Therefore, in order to plot the water surface for the 100-year floodplain, it is necessary
to use Manning’s equation to generate the elevation of the water against its location on
the stream. The downstream extent of the stream (at the Gulf of Guinea) is station
0+00 (this is 0 feet), and the length proceeds upstream along the centerline of the

76
channel. The elevation at length 0 is equal to mean sea level + 4.5 ft, the elevation of
high tide. Manning’s equation is used to solve for the hydraulic slope.

Since Q has already been solved for, the watershed can now be divided into sections,
and Q can be prorated accordingly (i.e. the downstream section of the watershed
receives the entire Q, but the top fourth of the watershed only receives about one-
fourth of the Q). The channel’s cross sectional area and wetted perimeter are
traditionally determined by on-the-ground land surveys at selected intervals along the
channel, and the roughness coefficient is obtained by visual inspection of the channel.
In the case of Accra, the roughness coefficient must be amplified significantly to account
for debris and rubbish in the channel.

Given all of the previous inputs into Manning’s equation, the slope is then solved for in
an iterative manner, based on a changing cross section to the stream. The slope, S, is
not the slope of the ground, but a “hydraulic” slope, based on the downstream water
surface elevation. Adjustments to this slope need to be made throughout the course of
the stream, based on friction losses at bridges and culverts, and based on transitions in
flow from super to sub-critical flow. (Such transitions are not likely in Accra, due to the
flat topography and relatively slow flow velocities). In such fashion, water surface of
the channel is profiled, based on the iterative constraints of hydraulic slope and
changing channel geometry. The US Army Corps of Engineers uses a backwater
software-modeling program (HEC-2) to ease the degree of computation. The final step
in the process is to superimpose the water surface profile on a topographic map, thus
developing a map of the floodplain. These results have been used in this project to
develop metropolitan concepts and suggestions for Alajo, one of Accra’s most flood-
prone communities.

77
SEISMIC HAZARD

On a global scale, seismic hazard in Accra is low to moderate but is not negligible.

(GSHAP, 1999)
Seismic hazard for Africa and portions of the Alpine-Himalayan Seismic Belt

In the figure above, the darker the color the higher the seismic hazard, expressed as
peak ground acceleration (PGA, expressed in m/s2) with an exceedance probability of
10% in 50 years. Accra is located near Latitude 5.5o N and Longitude 0, and shows only
a moderate PGA of about 1.2 m/s2 or 12%g.

This hazard is comparable to that of New York and other stable continental regions far
from seismically active plate boundaries. Accra’s readiness to cope with its earthquake
hazard is currently less developed than New York City. After decades of procrastination,
New York City implemented seismic mitigation measures in 1996. Lack of such a
strategy in Accra will likely lead to extensive loss of life and property when the next
significant earthquake strikes. Destructive earthquakes have hit Accra before, but the

78
population and built assets were only a fraction of what they are today. The potential for
loss today is considerable and will increase as Accra becomes more affluent.

Existing Conditions
Accra is located on a “passive continental margin” along the West-African, Atlantic coast
of the African continent. This margin was formed in the Mesozoic epoch, first by
continental rifting of a cratonic assembly of mostly northeasterly striking terrains that
are generally more than a billion years old. Less than 200 million years ago, during the
Jurassic epoch, the continental rift system progressed into open ocean floor spreading
separating Africa from South America. This process created Jurassic, Cretaceous and
some Tertiary to the present Atlantic Ocean floor along the mid-Atlantic ridge system.
Segments of the generally north-south-striking mid-ocean ridge system are offset by
east-west striking “transform faults”. Only the segments of transform faults between the
now still-spreading ridges in the mid-Atlantic are active faults.

Today, inactive lineaments extend east and west, beyond the active segments of
transform faults, from the ocean floor into the American and African continents.
Generally, they mark east-west striking coastal recesses in the otherwise northerly
striking continental margins of Africa and the Americas.

Both Accra and New York City are located at such extensions of former (Jurassic)
transform faults (or "fracture zones”) into the African and North American continents,
respectively. While passive continental margins show generally some moderate
earthquake activity with Richter magnitudes of M=7 and smaller, there is a tendency for
the seismicity to increase where the transform faults and other pre-existing tectonic
features intersect each other and the continental margin. The seismicity near Accra
stands out along the West African coast and has been attributed to just such an
intersection of older faults systems (Sykes, 1978). The intersecting faults systems near
Accra consist of the east-north-easterly striking Coastal Boundary Fault Zones
(Amponsah, 2002) which is probably the extension onto the continental shelf of the
oceanic Romanche Fracture Zone (Sykes, 1978). This fault system closely coincides with
and parallels the coast of the Gulf of Guinea and just west of Accra intersects a
northeasterly striking tectonic feature known as the Akwapim Fault system. The latter

79
traverses the Accra Metropolitan Area at its northwestern outskirts. This faults system
abuts the northeasterly striking ridge made of quartzite and phyllites, just northwest of
Accra, and forms a north west-facing, northeasterly-striking steep escarpment through
which the Densu River has cut a narrow gorge near Weija.

Densu
River

Densu
River

Accra

Accra

(modified from Amponsah, 1999)

Geological Map of Ghana near and northwest of Accra

80
In the map above, triangles represent earthquake epicenters. The sparsely-dotted
pattern is a terrain of old granites. The darkest pattern outlines the elevated quartzite
ridge through which the Densu River cuts a gorge near Weija. Along the coast and the
northeast-striking Akwapim fault system is the east-northeast-striking Coastal Boundary
fault.

Seismicity Data
Both historical (Junner, 1941; Sykes, 1978) and some instrumentally-recorded
earthquake data from the Ghana Geological Survey are available for the period 1973-
1997 (Amponsah, 2002). These data indicate that Accra and the region have
experienced at least three, and perhaps four, severe earthquakes in the past 400 years,
ranging on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (MMI) from VIII to IX. The last major
damaging earthquake was in 1939, and had an estimated magnitude of 6.5 on the
Richter scale (Amponsah, 2002). It is unclear whether its epicenter was located some 30
km offshore on the presumed trace of the Chain Fracture zone; or closer to Accra near
the coast, implying near the presumed trace of the Romanche Fracture zone; or on the
Akwapim Fault zone, or the intersection of the latter two. Other historic damaging
earthquakes presumably with similar magnitudes occurred in 1906, 1862 and, farther to
the southwest, in 1636. More frequent smaller events, with magnitudes below M=5,
caused little or no damage.

Analysis and Evaluation

Analysis of the seismicity and estimates for the associated seismic hazard follow the
method outlined by Jacob et al (Jacob et al, 1995) in their seismic hazard assessment
for the Tappan Zee Bridge, New York. This bridge is located in a seismic setting
comparable to that of Accra. Note that this approach does not follow a fully probabilistic
seismic hazard analysis for Accra, and so a thorough fully probabilistic assessment is
required for the future. However, this analysis aims to establish a preliminary minimum
baseline estimate for the seismic hazard of Accra. This is to permit a comparison with
hazard values for Accra currently proposed by a draft seismic building code for Ghana.
There are comments on this draft code below.

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Following the pseudo-probabilistic approach by Jacob et al., histograms N(M) (i.e.,
frequency distributions of earthquakes as a function of magnitude M, binned in
magnitude increments of 0.1M) of the historically and instrumentally recorded seismicity
data are compiled separately. These distributions N(M) are then normalized and
combined to a single cumulative, normalized frequency distribution n(M), the
normalization being done by the area (S, in km2) and observation time (T, in years) for
which each of the three available data sets was collected. The three data sets with
different magnitude ranges, areas, and levels of completeness cover: (i) the period 1636
– 1939, M>6 , with presumed observation area S of 3 by 1.5 degrees in latitude and
longitude, with a sample period T≈400 years; (ii) a few M=4.5 to 4.7 events in 1964
and 1969 presuming an area S of 3 by 3 degrees and T=75 years; and (iii) the
seismicity detected by the modern seismic network in the period 1973 – 1997, which
was presumed to be complete for magnitudes M=2.0 to 4.9, and with assigned S of 3 by
3 degrees, and T=25 years). The combined normalized cumulative frequency
distribution is then

n= N/(S*T)
OR:
log (n) = log (N)-log(S)-log(T)

Note that n has the dimension of number of earthquakes [year-1 km-2] and reads as the
area-normalized, annualized, cumulative number of earthquakes with magnitude M and
larger.

A linear relationship between log (n) and the Richter magnitude M is fitted to the
observed cumulative distribution n(M), known as a Gutenberg-Richter relation, such
that:

log (n) = a - bM

To estimate the radius (d, in km) within which an earthquake of a given magnitude can
be expected for a given recurrence period T* (in years), the following equation applies

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 log d = (bM + a – log T* – log 2π)/2 (Jacob et al., 1995):

The results are presented in below. The recurrence periods of T= 475 years and 2,475
years correspond to a 10% exceedance probability in 50 years, and to a 2% exceedance
probability in 50 years, respectively.

T*=475 years T*=2,475 years

Magnitude
4 24.1 10.6
4.5 34.7 15.2
5 49.9 21.8
5.5 71.7 31.4
6 103.1 45.2
6.5 148.3 64.9
7 213.2 93.4

This compares distances (d, in km) expected for earthquakes with magnitudes M and
recurrence periods T* (years) for an unconfined seismic source with uniform cumulative
rate log n (y-1 km-2) = -3.7145-0.6311 M.

These values can be considered as a lower bound for the hazard because we assume
generously large areas S and observation periods T for the normalization of the rate
n(M). This under-estimation of the seismicity flux may be slightly compensated for by
equating the Richter magnitude M with moment magnitude Mw used below in the
ground motion attenuation relations. These are details that need to be clearly addressed
in future thorough, more quantitative, and fully probabilistic assessments taking all
uncertainties into account.

The two sets of magnitude-M vs. distance-d combinations for the two recurrence periods
T* can be translated into families of ground shaking levels. This is done by employing
ground motion attenuation laws that give the level of ground shaking as a function of
magnitude M and distance d form the earthquake. Using the set of distance and
magnitude combinations shown above, the 5% damped response spectral acceleration
Sa(To), given in units of g (1g = the Earth’s gravitational acceleration = 9.81 m/s2) are

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computed as a measure for ground shaking. For this purpose the ground motion
attenuation relations by Atkinson and Boore (1997) are chosen because they apply to
stable continental regions such as eastern North America, and - by tectonic analogy - to
the stable continental regions of Western Africa including Accra and vicinity. The
response spectral acceleration Sa(To) is given by Atkinson and Boore as a function of
shaking period (or fundamental building period) To. Note that To is proportional to the
height of a building. The approximate rule is that the fundamental building period To
(seconds) is approximately given by the number n of stories in the building divided by
10, or To ≈ 0.1 n. Hence, a 10-story building has an approximate fundamental response
period of 1 second, a 2-story building of 0.2s, and so on. The graph below shows a
family of Sa(To) curves for a number of M-d combinations from the figure above with the
common recurrence period of T*=2,475 years.

The envelop to the family of shown response spectra Sa (T) is a first-order

approximation to a probabilistic uniform hazard ground motion spectrum that can be
compared to the standardized ground motion spectra used in building codes.

0.3
Recurrence Period T* = 2475 years or 2% Exceedance Probability in 50 years

0.25

0.2

M=4.5
M=5
M=5.5
0.15 M=6
M=6.5
M=7
M=4
0.1

0.05

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Building Period T, seconds

This graph illustrates Response Spectral Acceleration (Sa), in units of gravitational

acceleration g, vs. Building Period To, in seconds, for various earthquakes with a given

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magnitude M – distance d combination per shown curve. These curves apply for a
common recurrence period of 2,745 years, or an exceedance probability of 2% in 50
years.

Earthquake Resilience and Risk Management

Effective risk management entails decreasing risk to make a city more disaster resilient.
Risk is defined as the regional sum of the local products of hazard, assets, and fragility.
Several strategies can make Accra more earthquake-resilient. In particular, Accra’s risk
can be reduced by lowering the product of assets and hazards through land use
planning and zoning. Since soft soils amplify ground motions, high-valued assets and
essential facilities should not be placed on soft sites or liquefiable soils. Another risk
reduction option is to manipulate the product of assets and fragility through appropriate
building and engineering codes.

Land Use Planning and Zoning

To lower the product of hazard and assets, Accra must locate its assets in low-risk
areas. To this end, Accra’s administrators, the Ghana Geological Survey, and the
Department of Town and Country Planning should design and implement judicious
zoning ordinances. As a first step, Accra’s soils must be characterized to estimate likely
locations of soil liquefaction in case of an earthquake. Similarly, areas near or above
faults or on soft soil sites are high-hazard zones.

The zoning ordinances must constrain or control development of structures in these

potential high-hazard areas, or insist on strict seismic code enforcement of seismic
design and construction codes for all structures. This is especially important for essential
structures (hospitals, fire houses, schools, police stations, emergency centers) and life
line infrastructure (water, sewer, electricity, transportation including bridges and
highways, railways and ports, and communication systems). Once the zoning
ordinances and code requirements have been promulgated, an enforcement agency
must be have the resources, manpower, and mandate to ensure that they are followed
and implementation is supervised during all phases of design and construction.

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Ghana is currently in the process of introducing a seismic building code. A preliminary
draft of this code (BRRI, 2003) and its proposed hazard levels for design and
construction can be compared with the lower-bound estimates of seismic hazard as
described above by the envelope of families of response spectral curves already shown
in the graph. They are for an exceedance probability of 2% in 50 years, which is the
hazard level considered in U.S. seismic building codes. This exceedance probability of
2% in 50 years implies, conversely, that the mapped ground motions not expected to be
exceeded with a 98% probability in a 50-year exposure time.

The response spectral peaks at very short building periods T≈ 0.05 s (high frequencies f
= 1/T = 20Hz) measure almost 0.3 g. Fixing a constant value of Sa≈0.25g at short
building periods T=0.1 seconds (i.e. for 1-story buildings) and a value of 0.025g at
T=1.0 s (i.e. 10-story buildings), one can compare the above obtained spectral shape
with the Ghana draft code spectra for rock sites, as shown in the graph below. They
include code spectra by GSHAP (1999) for the Accra region, spectra for the New York
City Seismic Building Code (Jacob, 1996), and spectra by the U.S. Geological Survey for
the NEHRP seismic code provisions (Frankel et al., 1996) that form the basis for current
U.S.-recommended seismic building codes. Minor corrections to some of the spectra in
the graph, in particular for normalization to common reference rock conditions, need to
be accounted for during future, more thorough approaches. This points to the necessity
that the hazard levels and design ground motions of the currently proposed draft version
of the Ghana Seismic Building Code (BRRI, 2003) should be revised downward.

The levels currently suggested for Accra by the Ghana draft seismic code are based on
peak ground accelerations PGA=0.35g≈3.5m/s2 which implies a response spectral peak
of Sa=2.5PGA=0.875g. This very high design level is comparable to some of the higher
seismic hazard levels on a global scale, including for the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt,
or along very active faults in California. The latter has the highest seismic design values
in the U.S., which greatly exceed the design values for less active regions such as New
York City (and by implication, Accra). The high design spectral values proposed by the
Ghana draft seismic code introduce unusually high safety factors against earthquakes.
They also imply unwanted high design and construction costs. To bring these costs
down to what is internationally good practice, the zone factors could be reduced to

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values suggested, for instance, by GHSAP (PGA of about 0.12g), or other values implied
by the graph.

Ground Motion Response Spectra for Building Codes

0.9

cu2475
0.8
cu475

0.7 NYC

Ghana Code Zone 3

0.6
USGS-NYC-2475

0.5 GSHAP 475

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Building Period (seconds)

(CU 2475, CU 475, Ghana Code Zone 3, and GSHAP 475) and New York City (USGS-NYC-2475
and NYC Building code)
Comparison of 5%-Damped Ground Motion Response Spectral Acceleration for Accra

This shows the high spectral amplitudes of the proposed Ghana Code spectrum for Zone
3. The comparison suggests that the Ghana Code Spectrum could be reduced in
amplitude for future applications.

The Ghana draft seismic code may need other revisions: in addition to seismic zone
parameters. The current draft seems modeled after the now outdated Uniform Building
Code (UBC). It used a single PGA value as the anchor for defining the level and shape of
the design ground motion spectra. This spectral form leads to unnecessarily high seismic
design levels especially for taller buildings that will become more numerous as Accra
develops. The spectral shapes can be better defined when short-period and long-period

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design levels are prescribed separately (as is the case with current U.S codes or the
International Building Code, IBC). The site factors used in the Ghana draft code are
another issue that needs revisions and could be modeled after those used in the IBC.
The Ghana-code site coefficients span a range from only 1 to 1.5. In contrast, many
modern codes suggest frequency dependent ranges up to about 4 between the hardest
rocks and softest soils.

Hazards and associated risks are related in many indirect ways, it is crucial to consider
the entirety of the natural and man-made hazards and risks for Accra in devising a
comprehensive strategy for multi-hazard risk mitigation to ensure the resiliency of Accra,
and minimizing catastrophic disaster losses.

For example, lowering the flood hazard and associated flood-related risks should also
lower the health hazard due to water-borne diseases. Lowering the earthquake hazard
should lower the overall secondary fire risks (as fires can result from poorly engineered
structures’ failing in earthquakes).

Goal and Objectives

Accra can be disaster-resilient. This requires a well-organized, dedicated administration
that understands the risks that the city faces. Specifically, it is important to realize that
while the hazards might appear low (earthquakes) or moderate (flooding), there is a
finite but real probability that severe events with high loss potential will occur. This
means that the city must plan to live with the risks that it faces or condemn itself to be
caught off-guard when a major natural disaster strikes.

With the help of appropriate experts, the city must plan adequate preventive and
reactive strategies to mitigate the overall natural hazard risks. Special attention must be
paid to reducing the risk to exposed essential facilities such as hospitals, emergency
services, schools, and essential infrastructure systems such as water, sewerage, electric
power, transportation, and communication hubs.

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The first step in determining a course of action for Accra is to establish a comprehensive
and detailed multi-hazard risk assessment, preferably in form of a map or series of maps
for the entire city. One of the maps should be a union of the high-risk zones for all types
of disaster, only a few of which have been discussed here. This map will constitute a
unifying document that will help to guide Accra’s development strategy towards a
disaster resilient future.

Preventive strategies must include accurate weather prediction, flood mitigation both
upstream of and within flood prone zones, strictly enforced land-use zoning, and
building and engineering codes. The administration’s decisions should be developed in
effective consultation with local and international experts in the appropriate fields, The
regulations need to be implemented by the government and its contractors, and must
be enforced by a trusted civilian authority with the ability to fine violators and provide
incentives for compliance.

Reactive strategies can only aim to reduce the damage during and after a disaster.
Accra’s strategy should include maintaining well-planned, redundant evacuation routes
communication systems, educating the population, training and employing professional
rescue workers, and devising well-understood processes for action in case of a disaster.
In the future, increasingly more preventive and mitigating actions should be undertaken
(hazard-conscious land use, enforcement of building codes, strengthening of the
infrastructure) so that the need to respond to a catastrophic event will be gradually
reduced.

One other strategy to reduce the impact of disasters is to distribute risk by offering
insurance. This option will become more attractive in Ghana as commerce and the
economy develop. However, insurance is difficult to sell as long as land title and
ownership issues are unclear, and as long as premiums are not affordable to a large
sector of the population. This sector may need protection from catastrophic events more
urgently than those with access to abundant resources. Also, insurance companies shy
away from offering policies where only the most vulnerable properties will be enrolled
because the safer buildings’ generally more affluent owners decline to participate,
precluding a spread of risk across a diversified portfolio. Another risk to insurers lies in

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the spatial concentration of insurers’ portfolios. A company selling insurance only in the
Accra market could be wiped out and become insolvent by a single local event, since it
could not compensate with funds from premiums collected elsewhere, i.e. “uncorrelated
risks” that are not concentrated on Accra. Hence, either national insurers covering all of
Ghana, or international insurers and reinsurers be necessary to sufficiently distribute the
risk.

The city’s primary concern should be to safeguard the most crucial structures. These
include hospitals, schools, power plants and sub-stations, dams, fire stations, water
delivery, communication and transportation networks. Not only is protecting these
expensive structures a necessary way to limit financial risk, it is also necessary to enable
adequate response in case of an emergency. Since large amounts of investments will be
made in the coming decades to satisfy the infrastructure and housing needs of Accra, it
is crucial that hazard- and risk-conscious land-use and building code enforcement be
implemented immediately. Otherwise, many of these capital investments are likely to be
wasted when hazardous events strike and destroy these expensive and essential assets.

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