Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Shipping Statistics
and Market Review
Volume 53 No 4 - 2009
Market Review
Analytical Focus
World Merchant Fleet
World Tanker Market
World Bulk Carrier Market
World Container and General Cargo Shipping
World Merchant Fleet by Ownership Patterns
World Passenger and Cruise Shipping/
ISL Cruise Fleet Register
World Shipbuilding and Shipbuilders
Major Shipping Nations
World Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffic
This “short comment” is an excerpt from the “Analytical Comment” published in the
ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No 4-2010.
The SSMR includes detailed statistical information concerning the “analytical focus”
and provides approx. 30 monthly/quarterly market indicators (Market Review).
For more information compare attached “contents”
Page
ISL Comment – World Bulk Carrier Market 5-14
FIGURES - COMMENT
Fig. 1 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Annual Tonnage Changes 1991- 2010 .................................. 5
Fig. 2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Tonnage Additions and Reductions 1994 – 2009 .................... 5
Fig. 3 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Size Development 1991 – 2010 ........................................... 6
Fig. 4 Bulk Carrier Fleet - Tonnage Development of Major Shipping Nations 2006-2010 ............ 8
Fig. 5 World Steel Production by Area 1994-2006 ................................................................ 8
Fig. 6 Overview on Major Commodity Markets 1997-2006 .................................................... 9
Fig. 7 World Seaborne Trade of Major Dry Bulk Commodities 1980 – 2009 .............................. 10
Fig. 8 World Seaborne Trade of Iron Ore and Coal by Major Regions/Countries 2002-2002 ........ 11
Fig. 9 Total Coal and Iron Ore Trade in the World’s largest Dry Bulk Ports
by Port Regions 2004-2009 ..................................................................................... 12
Fig. 10 Development of Dry Bulk Voyage Rates on the Tubarao to China Trade
January 2002 – March 2010 .................................................................................... 13
Fig. 11 Monthly Development of Bulk Indices 2002-2010 ....................................................... 13
Fig. 12 World Bulk Carrier Fleet - Share of the Ordered Tonnage on the Existing Fleet 1998-2010 14
Fig. 13 Bulk Carrier Fleet - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage, Quarterly 2001 – 2010 ............ 14
Fig. 14 World Bulk Carrier Order Book, Quarterly 2002 – 2010 ............................................... 14
15-18
ISL InfoLine Special – World Bulk Carrier Market
SEABORNE TRADE
3.4 Seaborne Coal Trade ............................................................................................. 35
3.5 Seaborne Iron Ore Trade ....................................................................................... 35
3.6 Seaborne Grain Trade ............................................................................................ 35
PORTS
3.7 World Dry Bulk Ports ............................................................................................. 36
3.7.1 Selected Major World Coal Ports - Traffic 2004 - 2009 ................................................. 36
3.7.2 Selected Major World Iron Ore Ports - Traffic 2004 - 2009 ........................................... 37
(4) FUTURE
BULK CARRIER TONNAGE SUPPLY- WORLD BULK CARRIER ORDER BOOK
4.1 Existing World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type and Major Areas of Build 2010 ........................ 38
4.2 Bulk Carrier Order Book and New Orders by Type 2010 – 2010 .................................... 39
4.3 Order Book by Major Countries of Build and Type 2010 ............................................... 39
4.4 Bulk Carriers on Order by Type and Delivery Schedule 2010 ....................................... 40
4.5 Bulk Carriers on Order by Countries of Build and Delivery Schedule 2010 ....................... 40
4.6 Bulk Carriers on Order by Ship Yard and Delivery Schedule 2010 .................................. 40
4.7 Additions to the Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type and
Major Countries of Build 2002 - 2009 ....................................................................... 41
4.8 Additions to the Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type and
Major Countries of Domicile 2002 - 2009 ................................................................... 42
1 WORLD BULK CARRIER FLEET 2009/2010 Fig. 1: World bulk carrier fleet – annual tonnage changes as of
January 1st, 1991-2010 (dwt- per cent)
The year 2009 undoubtedly was a difficult year for the
bulk industry, but it was not as bad as one would have 10.0 8.9
expected at the turn of the year. While markets 8.0 7.1 7.2
6.4 6.3
plummeted in early 2009, there soon were signs of relief 5.8
6.0 4.7 4.7
as China’s demand for ore and coal reached record
4.0
3.5 3.1 3.4 3.7
amounts. 2.4 2.0 1.6
1.7
Though charter rates recovered slightly, there is still a 2.0
0.4 0.0
considerable overcapacity in the market. Despite 0.0
cancellations of bulk carrier orders and postponements of -2.0 -1.3 -1.6
delivery dates, a total of 568 vessels with 43 mill dwt 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
entered the fleet, about 38 % less than anticipated, but still
by far the highest addition to the fleet during one year and
twice as much as in the preceding years. Thanks to the Fig. 2: World bulk carrier fleet – tonnage additions and reductions
increase in demand from China and increased scrapping, 1994-2009 (mill dwt)
much of the capacity could be absorbed, and shipyards
45
even recorded an increasing number of new orders during Additions Reductions
40
the second half of 2009 after two quarters with very little
35
ordering activity.
30
It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of 2010 3,088 mill dwt
25
bulks with 273 mill dwt were still on order, corresponding 20
to 60.4 per cent of the total world bulk carrier fleet. 15
10
1.1 Bulk carrier fleet development 5
As of January 1st, 2010, the total bulk carrier fleet for ships 0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
of 300 gt and over was composed of 7,772 bulk carriers
including 78 Ore/Bulk/Oil carriers (OBOs). The total Tab. 1: World bulk carrier fleet by type as of January 1st, 2006 and
bulk carrier fleet increased by 8.9 per cent in 2009. 2010
At the beginning of 2010, the following “Special types”, 2006 2010 Av. growth Average size
mill mill rate '06-'10 (1000 dwt)
can be distinguished: Ship type No dwt No dwt No dwt 2006 2010
%-share %-share av. ship Bulk carriers 6494 333.6 7694 447.2 4.3 7.6 51.4 58.1
Ship Type No of No 1000 dwt of dwt size (dwt) OBO carriers 137 8.1 78 4.0 -13.1 -16.2 59.0 51.2
Total 6631 341.7 7772 451.2 4.0 7.2 51.5 58.1
Bulk carrier
of which Bulk carrier 6465 83.2 405916 90.0 62787
Ore carrier 124 1.6 25755 5.7 207699
Wood chips carrier 163 2.1 7802 1.7 47865 Tab. 2: World bulk carrier fleet – tonnage reductions by type 2005-
Self discharging 93 1.2 3644 0.8 39180 2009
Cement carrier 407 5.2 2768 0.6 6800
Aggregates carrier 373 4.8 491 0.1 1318 2005 2008 2009 dwt-% average
Others 69 0.9 851 0.2 12335 Ship type No mill No of mill No mill change growth
OBO carrier dwt ships dwt dwt '08/'09 % '05-'09
of which Bulk/Oil carriers 39 0.5 3544 0.8 90872 Bulk carriers 49 1.7 76 3.3 282 11.6 246.0 60.7
Ore/Oil carriers 39 0.5 452 0.1 11585 OBO carriers 2 0.3 - - 4 0.2 - -6.9
Total Bulk and Total 51 2.0 76 3.3 286 11.8 252.7 55.1
OBO carriers 7772 100.0 451223 100.0 58057
286 bulkers with 11.8 mill dwt were sold to breakers, Tab. 3: World bulk carrier fleet – additions (newbuildings) by type
an increase of 253 per cent compared to 2008. 2005-2009
Between 2006 and 2010, the bulk carrier fleet 2005 2008 2009 dwt-% average
expanded on average by 7.2 per cent per year in Ship type No mill No mill No mill dwt change growth
dwt dwt dwt %- '08/'09 % '06-'09
terms of deadweight tonnage and the number of
Bulk carriers 319 24.0 333 22.7 567 42.8 99.3 89.0 15.6
carriers by 4.1 per cent.
OBO carriers - - - - 1 0.3 0.7 - -
During the period 2005-2009, 1,844 bulkers with 138 Total 319 24.0 333 22.7 568 43.2 100.0 90.5 21.7
mill dwt were added to the trading fleet. In the same
period, only 510 bulk carriers with 20.6 mill dwt
were reported to be broken-up, the majority in 2009. Fig. 3: World bulk carrier fleet – size development as of January 1st,
1990- 2009 (average dwt)
1.2 Age profile of the world bulk carrier fleet 60000
At the beginning of 2010, the average age of all bulk
carriers was 15.3 years compared to 15.7 years at the 55000
838 bulk carriers with 37.8 mill dwt (8.4 per cent)
Statistical details “ World bulk carrier fleet”
belonged to the Handymax class. Key figures p. 21/22
851 bulk carriers with 46.1 mill dwt were attributable Division of age and type p. 27, 28
Size class and type p. 27
to the “new” Supramax size class (50,000–59,999 Summer draught, length and breadth p. 28
dwt). At the beginning of 2010, these “newcomers”
had an average age of only 5.2 years Explanatory note
Major Open Registries
1,382 bulk carriers were attributable to the Panamax Countries permitting the registration of ships owned by non-residents.
size segment. With 99.3 mill dwt they had a share of In general, ISL figures on open registry flags are restricted to the top
ten major flags: Panama, Liberia, Bahamas, Malta, Marshall Islands,
22.0 per cent of the total bulk tonnage. Cyprus, St. Vincent, Antigua & Barbuda, Bermuda and Cayman
1,188 bulk carriers on order and 1253 trading vessels Islands. (01.01.2008).
Country of registration and country of domicile
belong to the Capesize segment (>80,000 dwt). Country of registration indicates the country of the port of registry of a
country (flag). The country of domicile indicates where the controlling
interest of the fleet is located in terms of the parent company. This
1.4 Ownership patterns of the world bulk carrier information is applicable to merchant vessels of 1000 gt and above.
fleet As of January 1st, 2009, the country of domicile information was
attributable to 7,078 bulk carriers with 414 mill dwt, whereas for 448
World bulk carrier fleet by flag carriers with 20.9 mill dwt this information is unknown.
Large shares of the bulk carrier fleet are attributable to ISL Market Review
open registry flags. As of January 1st, 2010, 277 mill dwt, Includes also specific up-dates (quarterly) of the merchant fleet with
aggregates for all ship types p.51
equal to 61.3 per cent of the total bulk carrier tonnage,
were registered for the top ten open registry flags (“Major
open registries”). Between 2006 and 2010, the yearly Fig. 4: Bulk carrier fleet – tonnage development of major shipping
average tonnage growth of these flags reached 8.6 per cent nations (controlled tonnage) as of January 1st, 2006-2010
(this represents a growth of 78 mill dwt in 5 years). (dwt – yearly average growth rate)
About 50 per cent of the registered bulk tonnage
120.0
registered in Panama belonged to Japanese and 11 per Japan
cent to Chinese ship owners. Hong Kong, Chinese and Greece
100.0
Japanese owners contributed most to the bulk fleet
80.0
registered in Hong Kong. The Greek ship owners control China, PR of
800
foreign flag.
600
2 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BULK CARRIER MARKET 400
2007/2008
200
consumption and trade patterns 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
ISL, based on International Iron and Steel Institute
Factors influencing the dry bulk market are largely related
to the world steel production, which is one of the major Fig. 6: Overview on major commodity markets 1996-2009 (Tonne-
drivers for the dry bulk market. China is by far the largest based Index 1996 = 100)
steel producer, the largest iron ore producing country and
due to the increasing imports of iron ore also increasingly 220 220
dominating the international iron ore trade. coal consumption coal production
200 200
Recent figures provided by the International Iron and China
China
46.6 per cent in world steel production in 2009. China’s 160 World World
160
average yearly production growth rate in the period 2000-
2009 was 18.1 per cent. 140 140
During the past decade, the development of seaborne Tab. 5: Dry bulk traffic of major ports by exporting and
importing Areas (port regions) 1998-2008 (mill
bulk trade was dominated by China’s soaring demand for
tonnes, per cent)
raw materials.
No average an.
World seaborne iron ore trade doubled between 2001 and of growth in % % share of total
2008 from 557 million tonnes in 2001 to 1.1 billion tonnes Port regions (a) Ports 98-03 03-08 1998 2008
in 2008. Almost three quarters of this growth (400 million Exporting areas 50 4.9 5.6 100.0 100.0
tonnes) were attributable to Chinese imports. Though Oceania 18 5.1 5.8 53.0 53.9
South America 19 5.7 7.1 29.2 32.5
nearby Australia is the most important exporter for China,
Africa 13 3.1 1.8 17.8 13.6
South American iron ore was also used to cover demand. Importing Areas 67 2.5 3.2 100.0 100.0
North Range/UK 25 0.6 1.7 32.2 27.2
2.3 Dry bulk port traffic – regional highlights Far East 14 5.3 4.2 43.7 52.2
US 14 -2.8 4.6 17.6 14.3
2008/2009 South East Asia 14 5.3 -0.2 6.6 6.3
The development of seaborne trade in major bulk (a) South East Asia: India, Pakistan, Thailand, Singapore,
commodities is mirrored in the development of the major Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines; North Range: 10 major North
Range ports (Europe)
exporting and importing ports’ development. ISL Port Data Base 2010
Between 1998 and 2008, the world’s largest ports’ dry bulk
traffic grew faster than in preceding periods. Due to
strong Chinese demand for iron ore and, more recently, Tab. 6: Coal and iron ore traffic of major ports by region 2005-
for coal, Australian and Brazilian ports of loading were 2009 (mill tonnes)
increasingly busy, causing congestion and long waiting Coal Iron Ore
times in the ports. Between 1998 and 2003, dry bulk mill t Growth rate mill t Growth rate
shipments increased by 4.9 per cent per year on average, 2009 2009/08 av. 09/05 2009 2009/08 av. 09/05
accelerating to 5.6 per cent between 2003 and 2008. Asia 245 -7.2 6.7 98 -16.5 -3.2
Oceania 235 -0.8 3.7 270 13.9 8.9
Europe 43 -14.6 -1.6 68 9.6 2.3
Leading exporting bulk ports America 94 -14.6 2.7 264 -10.3 2.8
The world’s largest dry bulk port, the port of Africa 73 -8.6 -2.4 55 25.1 14.5
Qinhuangdao, handled 206.3 mill tonnes of coal in 2009, Based on ports listed in table 3.7.1 and 3.7.2 on pages 36/37.
down 5.7 per cent from 2008. While demand has ISL Port Data Base 2010
weakened in most Asian importing countries, China’s coal
consumption actually increased in 2009. Hence, domestic
demand for coal shipments is likely to have dampened the
impact of decreasing exports.
The Australian ports of Newcastle, Hay Point and
SSMR Guide to relevant market information:
Gladstone together loaded 235 mill tonnes of coal in the Fearnleys Review, Fearnleys Monthly: www.fearnleys.com
fiscal year ending June 2009, approximately the same Platou: Platou Monthly, Platou Report: www.platou.com
amount as in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, the increasing Barry Rogliano Salles: BRS online market information:
www.brs-paris.com
demand from the Chinese economy was strong enough to ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook 2009
compensate the losses in other importing countries. Esso – Oeldorado: www.esso.ch
BP – Statistical Review of World Energy http://www.bp.com
The Chinese demand for raw materials also helped EIA Energy Information Administration: www.eia.doe.gov
International Grains Council: www.igc.org.uk
Australian iron ore ports to sustain and even expand their
cargo traffic. In the fiscal year 2008/2009, combined iron IHS Global Insight: World Trade Service
ore shipments in Port Hedland and Dampier grew by 13.9 IHS Global Insight's World Trade Service provides clients with the most
comprehensive view of international trading markets and
per cent to 270 mill tonnes. The Brazilian iron ore commodities. Forecasts are updated on a quarterly schedule and are
exports, by contrast, fell sharply. Tubarao and Sepetiba, delivered electronically via the Internet.
Exports by Country/Region with Trade Partner Regions/Countries
the most important ports for EU steel producers, faced a Imports by Country/Region from Trade Partner Regions/Countries
decline of 15.0 per cent to 166 mill tonnes. Real Value of Trade and Nominal Value of Trade
History for Total Value Data: since 1980.
Traffic rebound 2009/2010 History for Value by Volume: since 1995.
The quarterly development of bulk traffic of major ISL Port Data Base
The ISL Port Data Base contains structured, comparable data from
exporting ports reveals the impact of China’s increased 1980 onwards for approximately 400 leading world ports. This unique
demand in 2009. Iron ore exports of the three major data base is made possible by our network of port partners
Australian ports actually increased by 13.9 per cent in the throughout the world providing the broad information for our annual
ISL Port Data Base Survey. Since 2005, ports can provide their data
calendar year 2009. The record volume of 79.9 million via our online questionnaire.
tonnes loaded during the last quarter of 2009 was even 30 Cargo traffic and commodities (154 items)
per cent above the respective volume of 2008; the latter Total cargo traffic
Loading categories
had already been affected by the crisis. During the first Major bulk commodities
quarter of 2010, traffic was almost 30 per cent higher than Cargo traffic by continents
in 2008, i.e. before the crisis. Container traffic by continent (55 items)
TEU (laden/empty)
In Brazilian ports, the slump in Europe, in Japan and in Containerised cargo (tons)
Degree of containerisation
South Korea more than offset the increasing demand
60.00
49,400 daily (but still less than a third of the rates 50.00
realised during the “bulk boom”). 40.00
In 2009, the daily Capesize time charter rate 30.00
with the development of the contacting prices for new Fig. 10: World bulk carrier fleet - share of the ordered tonnage
vessels. Whilst a new Capesize vessel nowadays costs (dwt) on the existing fleet as of January 1st, 2000-
US$ 55 mill, an equal ship necessitated an investment of 2010
80
US$ 91 mill at the end of 2008, just at the start of the
70
economic crisis. Compared with 2008 the price level in
sharply. During 2009, 573 bulk carriers with 27 mill dwt 40.0
were added to the order book. Chinese shipbuilders 30.0
mill dwt
benefited from Chinese growth and have strengthened 20.0
their leading position. In 2009, Chinese shipbuilders were
10.0
by far the most active in contracting new bulk carriers. At
the same time, Chinese owners were most active in 0.0
0
According to IHS Fairplay, shipbuilders reported a
03/I 04/I 05/I 06/I 07/I 08/I 09/I 10/I
staggering 108 new contracts for bulk carriers with a
total of 2 mill cgt during the first quarter of 2010.
Tab. 7: World bulk carrier order book by type as of January
As of April 1st, 2010 the total order book for bulk 1st, 2006-2010
carriers comprised 2,970 carriers with 58.2 mill cgt (256
2006 2009 2010 cgt-%
mill dwt), a decrease of nearly 5 per cent compared to Ship type No mill No mill No mill change
January figures. cgt cgt cgt '09/'10
There is still a noticeable increase in ship-breaking Bulk carriers 832 15.8 3412 296.0 3076 60.5 -79.6
OBO carriers - - 13 4.14 12 0.67 -83.8
activity: during the first quarter 2010, 42 bulk carriers Total 832 15.8 3425 300.1 3088 61.1 -79.6
with 1.6mill dwt were sold to breakers. Note: Ordered tonnage at the beginning of period
3.2 Leading shipbuilding countries Statistical details “The world bulk carrier order book”
Bulk carriers on order by type p. 39
At the beginning of 2010, 98.6 per cent of the total bulk Bulk carriers on order by type and delivery schedule p. 40
carrier tonnage on order was attributable to yards in Asia New orders by type and major countries of build p. 41
New orders by type and major countries of domicile p. 42
(Japan, China, Philippines, Korea and Viet Nam). Table 15
shows the massive predominance of the major Asian Explanatory note
shipbuilding countries, which is not only reflected in the The compensated gross tons (cgt) concept was first devised by
order book at the beginning of 2010, but also in the shipbuilder associations, and adopted by the OECD Council Working
Party on Shipbuilding (WP6), in the 1970s to provide a more accurate
existing world bulk carrier fleet. Only 7.7 per cent of the measure of shipyard activity than could be achieved by the usual gross
existing bulk carrier tonnage was not built on Asian yards. ton (gt) and deadweight ton (dwt) measures. The compensated gross
tons (cgt) is calculated by multiplying the tonnage of a ship by a
coefficient, which is determined according to type and size for a
particular ship. Cgt is used as an indicator of the volume of work that is
necessary to build a given ship.
The new compensated gross ton system (cgt) coefficient for a 10,000 gt
bulk carrier is 7,987 cgt.