Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam China and U.S. Bomber
Patrols over the South China Sea
and Leadership Change
October 1, 2018

We request your assessment of the following issues:

Q1. Recently the US sent B-52 strike bombers over South China Sea. At the same time
a lot of naval ships from Japan, Canada, United Kingdom have sailed through the South
China Sea and visited Vietnam.-Do you think China would take some measures against
Vietnam in the coming months? Why?
ANSWER: China has already vented its displeasure at U.S. continuous bomber
presence patrols by cancelling a U.S. Navy port visit to Hong Kong, conducting live fire
drills in the South China Sea, and by criticizing outside powers for conducing freedom
of navigation patrols in the South China Sea.
The U.S. has staged continuous bomber presence patrols from Anderson Air Force
Base on Guam since 2004. B-52s have flown towards China’s east coast and then
turned back before entering Chinese air space. Other bombers (B-1B Lancer and B-2
Spirit) have flown over the South China Sea. U.S. bombers from North Dakota and
Diego Garcia also have flown over the South China Sea. The pace of these exercises
has stepped up under the Trump Administration.
In September, Vietnam appears to have set a record in naval port visits by external
naval powers by hosting warship visits from South Korea, Canada, the United
Kingdom, Japan, India and New Zealand. In addition, Vietnam has dispatched a
Gepard-class frigate to visit Japan before taking part in an international fleet review
and then participation in a China-ASEAN maritime exercise.
China is more likely to direct its anger at external powers rather than Vietnam because
Vietnam still conducts joint naval patrols with China in the Gulf of Tonkin and
participates in reciprocal friendly port visits.
Q2. The U.S. sanctioned a China's military entity following China's purchase of arms
from Russia. Do you think the U.S. will do something like this with Vietnam since
Vietnam also is negotiating with Russia on the purchase of military equipment. Why?
ANSWER: Secretary of Defense James Mattis has secured an exemption for Vietnam
from punitive action for purchasing weapons from Russian defence entities that are
under U.S. sanctions. Nonetheless, U.S. pressures on Vietnam to cease military
weapons and equipment purchases from Russia led Vietnam to abruptly cancel a
 2

string of joint activities scheduled for this year as a sign of displeasure at U.S.
interference in its affairs.
Secretary Mattis also has secured an exemption for India that decided to continue
defence procurements from Russia.
Q3. What do you think of China's expectations of Vietnam in appointing a new
president following the death of Tran Dai Quang? And how will China react to the
appointment of new members to the Poliburo between now and the next 13th
National Party Congress in 2021?
ANSWER: The current eighth plenum of the Communist Party of Vietnam’s Central
Committee will consider who should replace the late Tran Dai Quang as state
president. President Quang’s reported support for a law on demonstrations in the
wake of mid-year anti-China protests would not have endeared him to Beijing.
The Politburo apparently faces two choices. Either they can appoint a placeholder as
president who will serve until the next national party congress and then retire, or the
Politburo can appoint a new president who will continue to hold office after the next
national party congress. The new president could well use this position as a stepping
stone to become the next party secretary general.
The key question here is whether Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong will be able to
advance his successor or not. It is rumoured that Tran Quoc Vuong is Trong’s choice.
China would be pleased with this appointment. If Vuong is not appointed this will
indicate that Trong is entering a “lame duck “period in office.
There are also two other vacancies on the Politburo and it is too early to tell whether
these vacancies will be filled and if so who is promoted from the Central Committee.
Chinese diplomats in Hanoi and Chinese officials in Beijing will be quick to make their
displeasure known if anyone they perceive as anti-China is promoted.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam China and U.S. Bomber Patrols over
the South China Sea and Leadership Change,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
October 1, 2018. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer).
To remove yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading
and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.