Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
WDIV/DETROIT NEWS
600 SAMPLE
OCTOBER 3, 2018
Page Topic
2 Methodology
3 Key Findings
33 Cross-tabulation Report
METHODOLOGY
The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a Michigan statewide survey of November 2018 likely general election voters. The 600
sample, live operator telephone survey was conducted on September 30-October 2, 2018 and has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a
95% level of confidence. 65.0% of respondents were contacted via landline telephone. 35.0% of respondents were contacted via cell
phone telephone. This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4 and the Detroit News.
• Voters were asked generally speaking if they would vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate for State
Representative. By a margin of 47.2%-34.5%, voters chose the generic Democratic candidate over the generic Republican
candidate – a lead of 12.7% for the Democratic candidate. The generic ballot test remains unchanged from 12.2% in
September.
• Among ‘definite’ voters, Democrats hold a generic ballot lead of 48.4%-34.8% -- a lead of 13.6% for the Democrats.
• Among Independent voters, Democrats hold a generic ballot lead of 28.4%-17.6% -- a lead of 10.8% for the Democrats.
• Men choose the Democratic candidate by a margin of 42.7%-37.2% -- a lead of 5.5% for the Democratic candidate.
• But women choose the Democratic candidate by a margin of 51.3%-32.1% -- a lead of 19.2% for the Democratic candidate.
• While women continue to drive Democratic leads, Democrats continue to do well with male voters also.
• Among Metro Detroit voters, Democrats hold a lead of 50.2%-30.0% on the generic ballot test. But among out-state voters,
Democrats also hold a 4.8% lead on the generic ballot test.
• Democrats hold a lead among all age brackets on the generic ballot test – including a 8.6% lead among senior voters.
• There are differences by gender and region on the generic ballot test:
Region/Gender Dem GOP
Outstate Men 37.9% 43.6%
Outstate Women 49.7% 35.3%
Metro Men 47.3% 31.1%
Metro Women 52.8% 28.9%
• Voters were asked if they wanted Republicans or Democrats to have control of the US House of Representatives. By a margin
of 49.2%-39.8%, Michigan voters want Democrats to take control of the US House – a lead of 9.4% for Democrats.
o Independent voters want Democrats in control of the US House by a margin of 36.3%-30.4% -- a lead of 5.9%.
o While outstate voters give Democrats a narrow lead of 47.8%-43.0%. Metro Detroit voters want Democrats to control
the US House by a margin of 54.5%-36.2% -- an 18.3% Democratic advantage.
• Men are statistically tied on who they want to control the US House at 43%.
• But women want Democrats to control the US House by a margin of 54.5%-36.2% -- a lead of 18.3%.
• Voters were asked on a one to ten scale how motivated they were to cast a ballot in November. Voters are now motivated at
9.5 on a 10.0-point scale. Voters registered at 9.4 in the September survey.
o Of the ten distinct regions of the state, every region came in between 9.3 and 9.6 in motivation to vote.
o Every partisan affiliation came in between 9.2 and 9.6, including Independent voters at 9.3.
o All age groups reported a motivation between 9.0 and 9.7. 18-29 year old voters are motivated at a 9.0.
o The only major difference in motivation was that Definite voters came in at 9.8 while Probable voters came in at 8.0 –
making ‘definite voters’ an important cross-tabulation to consider.
o Other than ‘probable’ voters, we see no demographic group motivated below 9.0 on a 10.0 scale to vote.
o Again, these are the highest levels of motivation we have ever measured.
• Bill Schuette has 97.3% name identification breaking 28.7% favorable to 40.7% unfavorable. In early September, Schuette’s
name identification was 26.2% favorable to 41.3% unfavorable. In the past month, Schuette has done nothing to improve his
favorable/unfavorable standing with voters. Schuette’s name identification has increased from 88.4% to 97.3%.
o Independent voters, which are narrowing in number as the election gets closer, continue to view Bill Schuette
unfavorably by a margin of 25.5% favorable to 39.2% unfavorable.
• Gretchen Whitmer has 97.8% name identification breaking 38.3% favorable to 27.0% unfavorable. In early September,
Whitmer’s name identification was 39.3% favorable to 19.1% unfavorable – Whitmer’s unfavorable has increased by 8%.
Whitmer’s name identification has increased from 80.9% in early September to 97.8%.
o Independent voters view Gretchen Whitmer favorably by a margin of 35.3% favorable to 24.5% unfavorable.
In September, Whitmer held a lead of 49.8%-36.1%, with 10.0% undecided and 4.1% going to third party candidates.
• Among DEFINITE voters, Whitmer holds a lead on Schuette of 48.4%-34.9% -- a 13.5% lead among definite voters.
• Among men, Whitmer leads 45.2%-36.8% -- a lead of 8.4%. But among women Whitmer continues to lead 48.4%-33.7% -- a
lead of 14.7%.
• Whitmer leads among Independent voters by a margin of 8.6%. In early September she lead by 13% among independents.
[NOTE: The cell size for independent voters is small given that it represents just 17% of the survey.]
• The chart below compares the Governor’s race by gender and region. A clear sign of problems for Bill Schuette is that the
race is tied among out state men.
• Voters were asked which candidate had a better plan on four key issues facing voters: Education, Economy, Roads and Health
Care. Whitmer holds a lead on all four issues.
• Among Independent voters, Whitmer holds leads on three of the four policy issues, with the economy being tied. Whitmer
holds leads of more than 20 points among Independent voters on Education and Health Care.
US SENATE RACE: STABENOW HOLDS 18 POINT LEAD: JAMES STRUGGLES WITH NAME ID
• Debbie Stabenow has 98.8% name identification breaking 48.5% favorable to 32.2% unfavorable. Her favorable has fallen
slightly from the early September survey when it was 54.3%.
• John James has 58.0% name identification breaking 22.2% favorable to 16.5% unfavorable. 19.3% have no opinion of him.
But 39.5% of likely voters still do not know who John James is. John James name identification in early September was
54.3% reflecting a minor increase in his name identification over the past month.
▪ The early October numbers are largely unchanged from the early September numbers.
▪ Debbie Stabenow continues to hold a large lead and is above the 50% threshold making her likely to get re-
elected.
• Debbie Stabenow holds large leads in both out-state and Metro Detroit.
• Among men, Stabenow leads 50.4%-36.4% -- a 14%-point lead. Among women, Stabenow leads 54.8%-33.0% -- a 21.8%
point lead.
• Among Independent voters, Stabenow continues to lead 42.2%-26.5% -- a 15.7% lead among independent voters.
• Dana Nessel continues to lead Tom Leonard in the Attorney General’s race by a 7.4% margin. One in four voters continues to
be undecided in this race. [NOTE: Chris Graveline take less than 1% of the vote.]
Nessel 38.9%
Leonard 31.5%
Third Party 5.9%
Undecided 23.8%
In September, Nessel held a 12.9% lead in the race. The Attorney General’s race has shown a tightening with Nessel
dropping by 3.4% and Leonard increasing by 2.1%. It should be noted that Libertarian candidate Lisa Lane Gioia captures
4.2% of the vote. In a close race, the Libertarian candidate could play a role in this race.
• Nessel leads among men by a margin of 37.9%-32.7% -- +5.2%. Nessel leads among women by a margin of 39.7%-30.5% --
+9.2%.
• But Leonard holds a minor lead among Independent voters at 26.4%-22.6% -- a 3.8% lead for Leonard among independent
voters.
• Jocelyn Benson continues to lead Mary Trader Lang in the Secretary of State’s race by a 12.6% margin. Again, one in four
voters continues to be undecided in this race.
Benson 41.3%
Trader Lang 28.7%
Third Party 6.8%
Undecided 23.2%
• Benson leads among men 38.9%-27.4% -- a lead of 11.5%. Benson leads among women 43.6%-29.8% -- a 13.8% lead.
• Benson leads among independent voters 22.6%-15.6%. But a whopping 45.1% of independent voters have made no decision
in the Secretary of State race.
• Voters were asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Donald Trump:
• 36.0% view Donald Trump favorably
• 55.7% view Donald Trump unfavorably.
• But it is Trump’s favorable/unfavorable number that appears to be driving results on nearly all ballot questions. As
the listing below shows, Trump’s favorable/unfavorable drives voter positions on every race. And by looking at how
undecided voters view Donald Trump, we can show the difficulty Republican candidates face.
The US Senate race appears to define the ceiling for Democratic candidates with the remaining undecided voters more
favorable than unfavorable to Donald Trump.
The Governor’s race shows that undecided voters are relatively split in their opinion of Donald Trump portending the
potential that undecided voters will simply split between the two candidates.
But in the Attorney General and Secretary of State races, Republican candidates are swimming against a strong anti-
Trump tide with undecided voters breaking sharply against Donald Trump.
Senate Race
Governor Race
Attorney General
Secretary of State
• For the first time, voters were read the exact ballot language of Proposal 1 to legalize recreational marijuana in Michigan. By
a margin of 62.0%-35.0%, voters support legalization with only 3.0% undecided.
▪ 45.7% strongly SUPPORT legalization while only 28.7% strongly oppose legalization.
• Definite voters support the proposal 61.5%-34.5%. 45.6% of definite voters strongly support the proposal while 29.5%
strongly oppose the proposal.
• The differences by age are significantly larger than the differences by party affiliation. The ONLY partisan affiliation
opposed to this proposal are strong Republican voters at 36.1%-60.7%. They differ sharply from Leaning Republicans,
Independent voters and Democratic voters.
• By a margin of 55.0%-22.7%, Michigan voters would support Proposal 2 to establish an independent redistricting commission.
▪ 35.0% strongly support the proposal while only 12.2% strongly oppose the proposal.
▪ 22.3% of voters remain undecided.
• These numbers -- which are the first to test exact ballot language – represent a sharp departure from the September survey
which saw muddled support at 37.8%-31.4% in support, with 30.8% undecided.
• The chart below compares the proposal by party affiliation. The strongest support comes from Democratic voters. But
Independent voters now support the proposal at 54-27% -- a 2-1 margin of support. Even a plurality of Republican voters
support the redistricting proposal.
• Outstate voters support the proposal 51.8%-25.4%. Metro Detroit voters support the proposal 58.4%-19.8%.
• By a margin of 71.6%-18.7%, voters STRONGLY support passage of Proposal 3 that would allow no reason absentee ballot
voting. Again this survey represents the first time we have tested specific wording that will appear on the ballot.
▪ 46.3% of voters strongly support this proposal while only 12.2% strongly oppose this proposal.
• All party affiliations support this proposal with only strong Republican voters showing stronger levels of opposition. Strong
Republican voters look very different from the remainder of voters on this proposal.
• Voters were asked if they approve or disapprove of the direction of the US economy. By a margin of 64.3%-29.9%, Michigan
voters approve of the direction of the US economy.
• The chart below compares approval of the economy by party affiliation. Only Strong Democratic voters disapprove of the
direction of the economy – but even 40% of Strong Democrats approve. There is strong and bipartisan agreement that the
US economy currently is heading in the right direction.
• By a margin of 40.3%-44.7%, Michigan voters narrowly oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the US Supreme Court.
15.0% of voters are undecided.
▪ 27.8% of voters strongly support the nomination but 37.0% strongly oppose the nomination.
▪ Among Independent voters, 39.2% support the nomination while 34.3% oppose the nomination.
• Men support the nomination by a margin of 45.8%-39.6%. But women strongly oppose the nomination by a margin of
35.2%-49.4%. 42.0% of women strongly oppose the nomination.
• In September, voters were split with 36.3% supporting the nomination and 38.8% opposing the nomination.
• 90.7% of voters have heard about the allegations made by women against Brett Kavanaugh.
• Men are split with 37.4% believing Brett Kavanaugh and 34.0% believe the women, with 27.5% unsure.
• But 48.0% of women believe the women bringing the accusations with only 29.7% believing Brett Kavanaugh. 20.8%
are unsure. This represents an 18.3% advantage of women believing the accusers over Brett Kavanaugh.
• Voters were asked if they support or oppose four key elements enshrined in the Bill of Rights: Free Speech, Freedom of the
Press, Freedom of Religion, and the Right to Bear Arms. In each case they were asked if they strongly support or oppose that
right or just somewhat support or oppose that right.
• While all four rights have overwhelming support, there are clear weaknesses in support for three of four of the rights. Only the
Freedom of Religion appears to have clear STRONG support.
o Freedom of Speech
▪ 25.0% of Leaning Republicans and 17.1% of Strong Republicans only ‘somewhat’ support free speech.
▪ 15.7% of female voters somewhat support free speech compared to 9.0% of males.
▪ And 18.2% of 40-49 years olds ‘somewhat’ support free speech.
o Freedom of Press
▪ 26.7% of Leaning Republicans and 25.9% of Strong Republicans only ‘somewhat’ support the right of free
press.
▪ 19.3% of voters over 65 only somewhat support the free press.
▪ 7.2% of voters oppose freedom of the press.
▪ Degradation in support for the free press clearly occurs with Republican voters.
▪ 26.5% of Strong Democratic voters and 26.0% of Leaning Democratic voters somewhat support the right to
bear arms.
▪ 23.0% of Strong Democratic OPPOSE the right to bear arms.
▪ 20.5% of female voters only support the right to bear arms, with 15.1% of women opposing the right to bear
arms.
▪ Only 60.7% of voters over 65 strongly support the right to bear arms. 14.3% somewhat support the right, but
22.2% of voters over 65 years old oppose the right to bear arms.
▪ Degradation in support for the right to bear arms clearly occurs with Democratic voters.
Hello, my name is __________. I’m not selling anything. I’m doing a survey of voters in our community. It should take
approximately ten minutes.
1. Yes…..CONTINUE 100.0%(600)
2. No….TERMINATE
B. Thinking about the General Election on November 6th of this year, would you say are definitely going to vote, probably going
to vote, probably not going to vote, or definitely not going to vote?
1. Generally speaking, do you think the nation is on the right track of would you say the nation is on the wrong track?
2. And what about Michigan, do you think things in Michigan are on the right track or would you say they have gotten off on the
wrong track?
3. If the election for State House was held today, generally speaking would you say you would vote for the [ROTATE]
Democratic candidate or would you vote for the Republican candidate?
I am going to read you the names of several people you might have heard of. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or
unfavorable impression of that person.
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Donald Trump as President of the United States? ASK: WOULD
THAT BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
10. If the election for United States Senator were held today and [ROTATE] John James
was the Republican candidate, Debbie Stabenow was the Democratic candidate, George Huffman was the US Taxpayers
candidate, Marcia Squier was the Green candidate, and John Howard Wilhelm was the Natural Law candidate, who would you
vote for to be Michigan’s United State Senator? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN?
12. If the election for Michigan Attorney General were held today and [ROTATE] Tom Leonard was the Republican candidate,
Dana Nessel was the Democratic candidate, Gerald Van Sickle was the US Taxpayers candidate, Lisa Lane Gioia was the
Libertarian candidate or Chris Graveline, who would you vote for to be Michigan’s Attorney General? IF DON’T KNOW,
ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN?
Voters will decide three different ballot proposals on the November ballot. I would like to read each of them to you and ask you if you support or
oppose the proposal.
• Allow individuals 21 and older to purchase, possess and use marijuana and marijuana-infused edibles, and grow up to 12 marijuana plants
for personal consumption.
• Impose a 10-ounce limit for marijuana kept at residences and require amounts over 2.5 ounces be secured in locked containers.
• Create a state licensing system for marijuana businesses and allow municipalities to ban or restrict them.
• Permit retail sales of marijuana and edibles subject to a 10% tax, dedicated to implementation costs, clinical trials, schools, roads, and
municipalities where marijuana businesses are located.
• Change several current violations from crimes to civil infractions.
Would you say you support or oppose this initiated law? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST
SOMEWHAT SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
Create a commission of 13 registered voters randomly selected by the Secretary of State: 4 each who self-identify as affiliated with the 2
major political parties; and 5 who self-identify as unaffiliated with major political parties.
• Prohibit partisan officeholders and candidates, their employees, certain relatives, and lobbyists from serving as commissioners.
• Establish new redistricting criteria including geographically compact and contiguous districts of equal population, reflecting Michigan’s
diverse population and communities of interest. Districts shall not provide disproportionate advantage to political parties or candidates.
• Require an appropriation of funds for commission operations and commissioner compensation.
Would you say you support or oppose this initiated law? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST
SOMEWHAT SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
This proposed constitutional amendment would allow a United States citizen who is qualified to vote in Michigan to:
• Become automatically registered to vote when applying for, updating or renewing a driver’s license or state-issued personal identification
card, unless the person declines.
• Simultaneously register to vote with proof of residency and obtain a ballot during the 2-week period prior to an election, up to and
including Election Day.
• Obtain an absent voter ballot without providing a reason.
• Cast a straight-ticket vote for all candidates of a particular political party when voting in a partisan general election
• Would you say you support or oppose this initiated law? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST
SOMEWHAT SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
I want you to think for a moment about the Michigan Governor’s race. I am going to read you four different areas, please tell me
whether you think [ROTATE] Bill Schuette or Gretchen Whitmer has a better plan in that area.
17. Education
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the direction of the United States’ economy? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY
APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
22. And would you say you want Republicans or Democrats to have control of the US House of Representatives after the
November election?
24. And have you heard about any of the allegations made by women against Brett Kavanaugh?
25. And would you say you believe Brett Kavanaugh or would you say you believe the
women making the allegations against him?
26. Do you support or oppose freedom of speech for all citizens even if it is used to criticize the country or its leadership? ASK:
WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST SOMEWHAT SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
28. Do you support or oppose allowing citizens to worship any religion they choose or no religion at all, even if it is religion with
which you do not agree? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE OR JUST SOMEWHAT
SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
29. Do you support or oppose the right of citizens to bear arms? ASK: WOULD THAT BE STRONGLY SUPPORT/OPPOSE
OR JUST SOMEWHAT SUPPORT/OPPOSE?
30. Generally speaking, would you say you tend to vote mostly for Republican candidates, do you vote mostly for Democratic
candidates, or would you say that you vote equally for both Republican and Democratic candidates? IF VOTE EQUALLY
ASK: WOULD YOU SAY YOU LEAN MORE TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR MORE TO THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY, OR WOULD YOU SAY YOU ARE AN INDEPENDENT VOTER?
31. Do you or does any member of your family belong to a labor union or teachers association?
32. And on a scale of one to ten, with one being very low and ten being very high, how motivated are you to vote in this
November’s election? You can name any number from one to ten.
SCORE: 9.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 DK/Ref
0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 1.5% 3.5% 7.2% 6.8% 77.8% 0.3%
35. And where would you say you primarily get your POLITICAL news?
38. TELEPHONE
39. This survey was commissioned by the news media. Occasionally, they choose to talk to several participants of the survey.
Can we release your name and telephone number to them if they want to talk to you? Or would you prefer that your opinions
remain confidential? IF YES, ASK:
AND CAN WE RELEASE YOUR RESPONSES OR WOULD YOU PREFER THAT YOUR RESPONSES REMAIN
CONFIDENTIAL?
Right Wrong
Definite 35.9% 52.7%
Right Wrong
Definite 40.1% 45.9%
Dem GOP
Definite 48.4% 34.8%
Schuette Whitmer
Definite 26.5% 44.0%
Schuette Whitmer
Definite 35.7% 38.9%
Schuette Whitmer
Definite 29.1% 43.7%
Schuette Whitmer
Definite 28.0% 47.1%
GOP Dem
Definite 39.5% 49.5%
Yes No
Definite 92.1% 7.6%