Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Academic and Research Vice-rector

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Phase 8 – Final Project

1. General description of the course

Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering

Unit
Academic Level Professional
Academic Field Disciplinary training
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be yes ☒ No ☐
enabled
Number of Credits 3

2. Description of the activity

Type of the Number of

Individual ☐ Collaborative ☒ 2
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☐ ☐ Final ☒
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the activity: Delivery Environment of the activity:
125 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity:
Deadline of the activity: Sunday, May 27, 2018
Monday, May 14, 2018

Competence to develop:

Differentiate the algorithms, their characteristics and application in different risk

environments and/or uncertainty, for the taking of decisions and the optimization of the
expected results.

Topics to develop:

The academic course consists of three (3) academic credits, whose field of training is the
discipline and has a professional nature- elective in the program of industrial engineering
that offer the UNAD; in addition, it is theoretical. After you understand and internalize the
knowledge of the three preliminary courses of operations research (linear programming
methods deterministic, probabilistic methods) and the support in the acquired knowledge
in statistics and probability and Statistical Inference, the student is able to start the course
of decision theory, where it seeks to understand the methods, operations and definitions
on the different techniques of application in the decisions that depend on the type and
quality of the information obtained.

Steps, phases of the learning strategy to develop

Phases and stages of the learning strategy to be developed:

Phase 8. Final Project, taking into account the following steps:

Stage 25. Individual activity: Individual review of the activity guide and bibliographical
references required and complementary for the development of the activity.

Group activities:

Stage 26. Discussion and analysis of the problems raised, revision of the algorithms to be
applied and development of the activities proposed in the Collaborative Learning
Environment.

Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the problems
solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the contributions of all the
participants in the activity. To divide among the members of the collaborative groups the
proposed problems is not a methodology of the course, as the qualification will be done
according to the contributions presented individually.

Stage 27. Development of practical activities, use of Excel Solver. Review of the guides in
the Practical Learning Environment

Stage 28. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and Monitoring
Environment.

Activities to develop

Phase 8. Decisions under a risk environment, Unit 3.

Stage 25. Individual activity: With the reading and analysis of the problem contained in
the integrated guide of activities which is in the Collaborative Learning Environment, the
scenarios are reviewed, preparing to discuss the solution of the problem.

Do not forget to gather the necessary information to learn new concepts, principles and
skills that will help you in the process. In the Collaborative Work forum and in the
discussion topic called Phase 4. Collaborative work 2, start the activity by calling
colleagues, identifying the roles and pointing out the one you will assume.

Stage 26. The team should use the knowledge they already have, the details of the
problems that are proposed and that will be discussed for its subsequent resolution. It
outlines the possible algorithms that will need to solve each of the decision problems
under risk environment. Generate a list of response methods group, then solve them
according to the following indications of the problem:

Problem 1. Decisions under a risk environment:

A company dedicated to manufacturing different turned parts must decide whether to

manufacture a new product at its main plant, or if it buys it from an outside supplier. The
profits depend on the demand of the product. Table 10 shows projected profits, in millions
of pesos.
 Table 1. Decision alternatives according to the states of nature

According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision
Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable

(F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

P(F/low) = 0,2 P(D/low) = 0,8

P(F/low average) = 0,36 P(D/ low average) = 0,64
P(F/high medium) = 0,28 P(D/ high medium) = 0,72
P(F/high) = 0,5 P(D/high) = 0,5

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

Problem 2. Decision in uncertainty:

The company is thinking of acquiring machinery with new technology to carry out its
workshop work. The purchase will be decided according to several alternatives presented
by the seller (adaptability), this to facilitate the implementation in the workshop. The
decision variables presented below represent the cost of adaptation that will arise after
acquiring the machinery and training the workers in their use. Table 11 shows the costs in
millions of currency units per technology.

Event

Fits Fits
Alternative Does not fit Fits well
acceptably successfully

Technology 1 800 810 820 860

Technology 2 900 840 840 820
Technology 3 810 860 880 900
Technology 4 680 810 800 910

Table 2. Uncertainty adaptation new technology

Determine the optimal size of the premises to be purchased, using the methods of
LAPLACE, WALD, HURWICZ AND SAVAGE

Problem 3. Decision in uncertainty:

PLAYER B
65 82 72 65 68

PLAYER A
78 89 56 89 81
92 86 83 64 72
89 88 76 67 75
67 59 89 65 79
Table 3. Game strategy data

Find the saddle point of the data given below in table 12 for players A and B.

Problem 4. Decision in uncertainty:

In order to determine the decision conditions in the market, the Game Theory will be
used, using the graphical solution of the type (2 x N) and (2 x M) to estimate the strategy
and value of the game for the following data:

Table 4. Data for matrix strategy mxn

Problem 5. Markov decision problem:

An insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you
have not had accidents the last two years are charged US $ 6000 (State 1); If you have
had an accident in each of the last two years you will be charged $ 6300 (State 2). If you
had accidents the first of the last two years US $ 5800 (State 3). The probabilities of the
state according to historical data of three years are:

STATES E1 E2 E3
E1 0,20 0,30 0,50
E2 0,25 0,35 0,40
E3 0,20 0,15 0,65
Table 5. Transition matrix of Markov chains

Determine what the average payment that the company will receive according to the data
in the table.

Problem 6. Markov decision problem:

Suppose you get 6 types of Jeans brands in the Colombian market: Brand 1, Brand 2,
Brand 3, Brand 4, Brand 5 and Brand 6. The following table shows the odds that you
continue to use the same brand or change it.
 STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6
BRAND 1 0,21 0,18 0,13 0,23 0,15 0,1
BRAND 2 0,13 0,16 0,2 0,14 0,19 0,18
BRAND 3 0,15 0,14 0,17 0,16 0,15 0,23
BRAND 4 0,16 0,16 0,15 0,19 0,17 0,17
BRAND 5 0,16 0,19 0,13 0,14 0,16 0,22
BRAND 6 0,15 0,19 0,16 0,18 0,15 0,17

Table 6. Probabilities of change and permanence in the brand

At present, brand, have the following percentages in market share respectively (19%,
18%, 17%, 15%, 19% y 12%) during week 4.

PART 19. PRACTICAL WORK ENVIRONMENT.

Step 27. Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use
of the WinQSB or the Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed
activities, remember to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the income
and results table for the problems raised. In this same space, you can carefully review the
Guide for the use of educational resources.

PART 20. USE OF E-PORTFOLIO

Stage 28. Individually fill out the e-portfolio journal, so that it can verify the recording of
its difficulties and strengths with the activity of the practical environment, recognizing the
contribution for its professional life the use of the algorithms of the course, the which is in
the Evaluation and follow-up environment, to record what is identified in the e-portfolio in
the conclusions of the collaborative work that is found in the Collaborative Learning
environment and thus consolidate the definitive group work.

PART 21. RISE OF COLLABORATIVE WORK

Step 29. The leader of the group should upload a single PDF file in the Evaluation and
Monitoring Environment, in the designated space called Phase 6. Collaborative Work 3.

Step 30. Individually fill in the Self-Assessment and Co-evaluation survey, which is in the
Evaluation and monitoring environment, this allows identifying the individual and group
strategies used for the development of activities.

Environment Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and monitoring

for the environment
development
Individual:
None in this activity.

Collaborative:

Expected Product: PDF file marked with its Working

Group_212066_FINALPROJECT, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards,
with the following content:
Products to
Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively in the
deliver by
consolidation and generation of collaborative work.
student
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the proposed
theme.
Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the WinQSB or
Solver that performed in the practical learning environment.
Next page. Conclusions with what is stated in the e-portfolio.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that supports the
solution of problems.
 General guidelines for the collaborative work

Distance learning and in virtual learning environments

requires a solid planning process against suggested activities
for students. In this sense, when working on elements that
require the joint participation of the members of the group,
the need arises to articulate the learning strategy based on
Problems SBP and to direct it to facilitate the process of
student training. This approach emphasizes self-learning and
self-training, which are facilitated by the dynamics of the
approach and its eclectic constructivist conception.
Planning of activities
for the development of
In the ABP approach, cognitive autonomy is fostered, taught
collaborative work
and learned from problems that have meaning for students,
error is used as an opportunity to learn rather than punish
and an important value is given to the self-evaluation and
formative, qualitative and individualized evaluation. The
resources needed to solve the problems are in the Knowledge
Environment. Whenever you have considered these aspects
you can then begin to develop the phases corresponding to
the individual and collaborative work of the course.

Recognition of actors as subjects:

The students at the beginning of the course, in the space

destined to do so, will be recognized as participants of a
collaborative group, they will be able to present their
strengths to the service of the group and they will define the
channels of communication (contact data, institutional and
personal email address, skype, social networking links.) of
which will be available to interact effectively and proactively.

Planning of academic activities:

According to the elements that make up the principle of

responsible action, students must design a work plan based
Roles to perform by the on the analytical reflection of the activity agenda, the
student in the evaluation plan, the guides and rubrics given for the
collaborative group development of each academic activity. They will also design
a proposal for the planning of their collaborative work that
responds to the particularities and needs of the learning
strategy and mobilizes the work to be developed.

Staging of the principles of collaborative work:

It is important that students internalize each of the principles

of collaborative work and implement them from the beginning
of the academic year and thereby ensure excellence in their
learning processes and the presentation of academic products
that meet the expected quality in the course.

Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the student,

this principle materializes when defining the ways and
 mechanisms that will enable interaction in collaborative work.
The intention is for students to participate in the different
spaces of Collaborative Work and the general forum of the
Initial Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

Principle of growth. Each student can contribute to the

process of the other peers. From this idea, in the same
scenario where interactions occur, students can contribute to
others in terms of suggesting greater participation to those
who do not intervene frequently, offering information search
strategies, proposing technological resources that support the
process being carried out, among others that allow the team
to advance and that each one can strengthen its formative
process.

Principle of Responsible Action. Students should organize

their work to achieve the goals set. It is important that each
one assumes actions in the development of the work that
contribute in the achievement of good results of the
equipment. The aim is to ensure that the organization of
responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of individual
efforts, allow a successful collaborative exercise. It is also
important to consider aspects of evaluation in the student's
exercise, through the following scenarios:

Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the process in

which the student, through an instrument designed (Survey)
recognizes and presents its strengths and difficulties in the
development of collaborative work. A score has not been
assigned on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow him / her
to progress in his / her formative process based on the
difficulties identified during the development of the activities,
their individual participation and their interaction with the
group.

Compiler: Consolidate the document that constitutes the

final product of the debate, taking into account that the
contributions of all the participants have been included and
that only the participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of the alerts
to warn those who did not participate, that they will not be
Roles and responsibility included in the product to be delivered.
for the delivery of
products by students Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the rules of
submission of work required by the teacher.

Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the criteria

present in the rubric. You must inform the person in charge of
the alerts so that you inform the other members of the team
in case any adjustments need to be made on the subject.
 Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the products and
send the document in the stipulated times, using the
resources destined for the shipment, and indicate to the other
partners that the delivery has been made.

Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are notified of

new developments and inform the teacher through the work
forum and messaging of the course, which has been sent the
document.

Unit 1. Decisions in an environment of risk

Sanderson, C. (2006). Analytical Models for Decision Making.

New York, USA: McGraw-Hill Education Editorial. Retrieved
from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?url=http://se
arch.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=2
34098&lang=es&site=ehost-live

Gilboa, I. (2001). A Theory of Case-Based Decisions.

Camdridge, UK: Cambridge University Press Editorial.
Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?url=http://se
arch.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=e000xww&A
N=72982&lang=es&site=ehost-live

Rokach, L. (2008). Data Mining With Decision Trees: Theory

And Applications, Bern, Switzerland: H. Bunke, University
Bern, Switzerland. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=t
Use of references rue&db=nlebk&AN=236037&lang=es&site=eds-live

Narahari, Y. (2014). Game Theory And Mechanism Design.

New Jersey, USA: IISc Lecture Notes Series. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?url=http://se
arch.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=e000xww&A
N=752585&lang=es&site=ehost-live

Unit 2. Decisions in an environment of uncertainty

Joyce, J. (1999). The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory.

Camdridge, UK: Cambridge University Press Editorial.
Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=t
rue&db=nlebk&AN=228167&lang=es&site=eds-live

Prisner, E. (2014). Game Theory. Washington, District of

Columbia, USA: Mathematical Association of America
Editorial. Retrieved from:
 http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=t
rue&db=nlebk&AN=800654&lang=es&site=eds-live

Owen, G. (2013). Game Theory: Monterey, California, USA:

Naval Postgraduate School Editorial. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?url=http://se
arch.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=5
25603&lang=es&site=ehost-live

Abdi, M. (2003). A design strategy for reconfigurable

manufacturing systems (RMSs) using analytical hierarchical
process (AHP): a case study: Manchester, UK: International
Journal of Production Research. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=t
rue&db=buh&AN=10149095&lang=es&site=eds-live

Unit 3. Markov decision processes:

Ibe, O. (2013). Markov Processes for Stochastic Modeling:

Massachusetts, USA: University of Massachusetts Editorial.
Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=t
rue&db=nlebk&AN=516132&lang=es&site=eds-live

Dynkin, E. (1982). Markov Processes and Related Problems of

Analysis: Oxford, UK: Mathematical Institute Editorial.
Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?url=http://se
arch.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=e000xww&A
N=552478&lang=es&site=ehost-live

In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article 99, the

mistakes that infringe upon the academic order, among
others, are the following: paragraph e) “To plagiarize is to
present as your own work the whole or part of a writing,
report, task or document of invention performed by another
person. It also implies the use of cites or lack of references,
or includes cites where there is no coincidence between them
and the reference” and paragraph f)”To reproduce, or copy
for profit, educational resources or results of research
products, which have intellectual rights reserved for the
Plagiarism policy
University”.

The academic punishments that the student will face are:

a. In case of academic fraud proved in the academic work

or evaluation, the score achieved will be zero (0.0)
without leading to disciplinary measures.
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic work of
any nature, the score achieved will be zero (0.0),
without leading to disciplinary measures.
 4. Evaluation rubric

Rubric evaluation format

Phase 8 – Final Project
Type of
Individual activity Collaborative activity X
activity
Moment of
Initial Intermediate, unit Final X
Evaluation
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
The student Participation in the
The student participated in the effective
Individual participated actively forum, but his elaboration of the
student and effectively in the contributions are work is limited, so
14
participation elaboration of the fairly effective in the the achievement of
in the forum requested product. creation of the final the objectives is
product. inadequate.
Until 14 points Until 7 points Until 0 points
Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated

Although the
document presents a
The document basic structure, it
The basic norms for
presents an lacks some elements
the construction of
excellent structure, of the requested
reports are
all the exercises are body or does not
nonexistent like the
Structure of solved according to comply with the
algorithms applied 15
the Report the proposed norms for written
to the themes of
methodology and works. Not all
the theory of
algorithms of the problems are solved
decisions.
theory of decisions. according to the
algorithms of the
course.

Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points

 Although the subject
The objectives of the matter is treated,
work were the body of the
satisfactorily document does not The document
fulfilled, the decision adequately solve the leaves unresolved
Problems problems under a situation, the decision algorithms
under a risk risk environment are conclusions are not under a risk
12
environment solved correctly and relevant according environment, so
the analysis of their to the results efficiency decisions
results leads to an obtained by the are left unanswered.
optimal decision different decision
making. algorithms under a
risk environment.
Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points
Although the
The objectives of the
proposed theme is
work were
treated, the body of
satisfactorily met, The document
the document does
the problems of leaves unresolved
not adequately solve
decision in decision algorithms
Problems of the situation, the
uncertainty are in uncertainty, so
decision in conclusions are not 12
solved correctly and that optimality
uncertainty relevant according
the analysis of its decisions are left
to the results
results leads to an unanswered.
obtained by the
optimal decision-
decision in
making.
uncertainty.
Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points
The objectives of
the work were
satisfactorily Although the theme The document
fulfilled, the criteria is treated in a leaves unresolved
of game theory partial way, game theory, so
Game theory were defined decisions are not the decisions of
12
correctly and the correctly defined each player have
analysis of its according to game not been found
results leads to an theory. correctly.
optimal decision-
making.
Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points
The objectives of
the work were
Although the theme The document
satisfactorily met,
is treated in a leaves the Markov
the criteria of the
partial way, decision
Markov theory were
Criteria of the decisions are not unresolved, so that
defined correctly 12
Markov defined correctly optimality decisions
and the analysis of
according to are not defined
its results leads to
Markov's theory. correctly.
an optimal decision-
making.
Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points
 There are no
Writing is excellent,
spelling errors, but The document
ideas are
Writing and the document presents
correlated, and the
spelling presents a medium deficiencies in
body of the text is 16
articulation of the writing and spelling
coherent in its
ideas and structure errors.
entirety.
of paragraphs.
Until 16 points Until 8 points Until 0 points

Although references
are presented in the
The references used
final report, they The use of citations
to solve the
are not adequately and references
problems are
articulated with the proposed in the
adequate, as they
References work, since they do syllabus and the 12
lead to the solution
not lead to the integrated guide to
and analysis of the
solution and activities.
problems proposed.
analysis of the
problems proposed.

Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points

Although the use of
The practical
The use of the the practical
environment of the
practical environment in the
course has been no
environment of the final report is
longer explored, for
Use of the course is excellent, evident, the
that reason the
practical the results and the solutions found by
evidence in the use 20
learning analysis of these the application lack
of the application to
environment are shown correctly analysis and
solve the problems
in the final work conclusions
raised has been
presented. pertinent to efficient
limited.
decision making.
Until 20 points Until 10 points Until 0 points
Final score 125