Transport Accessibility

Case for London Technical Report 1

Executive Summary
Colin Buchanan and Partners Accessibility

Executive Summary

Introduction

This study investigated the relationship between accessibility and

density of both population and employment. It studied that relationship
at two levels:

At a London-wide level where accessibility to/from each individual

ward (782) was measured in terms of rail only; and
At a local level where accessibility was measured for all public
transport (including buses).

The accessibility analysis was undertaken using CBP’s ABRA model

which represents all rail services and train station locations in London.
The model also includes all bus services and stop locations in South-
East London, from where the case studies were drawn. Accessibility is
measured in generalised time with weightings applied to walk time and
waiting time. It excludes fares.

A review was also undertaken of the extent to which teleworking could

alter transport demand in the future.

London-wide Analysis

The London-wide analysis determined the travel time required to access

all other wards from each individual ward. That information could then
be categorised and linked to data on population and employment
density, enabling us to quantify:

The population within X minutes (generalised time) of each ward

The number of jobs within X minutes (generalised time) of each
ward

Figure 1 shows that average accessibilities vary by location.

Accessibility is greater in Central London (LUL zone 1) than it is in Inner
London (between Zone 1 and the North/South Circular) and Outer
London. The number of people able to access an average ward within
60 minutes of generalised time is roughly 4.8 million for a ward in the
central area, 3.2 million within the inner area and 1.5 million in outer
London.

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Colin Buchanan and Partners Accessibility

Figure 1: Accessibility by population to London

CBP examined the relationship between accessibility (i.e. the number of

people able to access a given within ward within X minutes) and the
density of employment within that ward. The analysis included a number
of other variables (highway accessibility, Central/Inner/Outer
classification) and was carried out for a range of generalised time limits
(30, 45, 60 and 90 minutes). The relationship is shown in Figure 2 using
45 minutes as the time limit.

Figure 2: Accessibility and employment density in London wards

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Figure 2 shows that there is clearly a correlation between accessibility

and employment density (as we would expect), but also:

At low levels of rail accessibility, employment density increases with

respect to accessibility at a relatively low rate. This suggests that
there may be a base level of employment density, and that these
jobs are typically accessed by car, bus or walk.
There is a kink at high levels of accessibility. At that point, further
increases in accessibility are correlated with much higher increases
in employment density. These high levels of employment density are
dependent on rail access.

The study also investigated the relationship between population density

and accessibility to employment (i.e the number of jobs that people can
access from a ward within X minutes). This analysis was undertaken in
a similar manner and is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Accessibility and population density in London wards

Examining the relationship between population density and accessibility

also produced a statistically significant relationship. Population density
appears to increase in line with accessibility only up to a certain point,
beyond that point population density fell despite further rises in
accessibility. The most likely reason for this is that at very high levels of
accessibility residential development is squeezed out by commercial
development.

A final test looked at the relationship between house prices and

accessibility, shown in Figure 4. There is clearly a positive link between

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Colin Buchanan and Partners Accessibility

accessibility and house price, although the explanatory power of the

regression analysis is less than found for population density and
employment density. This suggests that there are many other factors
that contribute to house prices, but the link between house prices and
accessibility is nonetheless important.

Figure 4: Accessibility and house prices in London wards

Case Studies

In order to examine whether the London-wide analysis could be used to

inform decisions about transport improvements at a more local level,
CBP examined a number of case studies. The case studies comprised:

Two high density employment areas, the City and Isle of Dogs
Two regional centres, Lewisham and Bromley
Two local centres, Beckenham and Crystal Palace

For the case studies, more information was collected on employment

types, planning policies, development potential (measured by planning
permissions granted) and historic and expected growth in population
and employment.

It proved difficult to draw many firm conclusions from the case studies.
Those that could be drawn were:

If the Isle of Dogs is to achieve the growth forecast in the London

Plan then either accessibility must be improved or it would represent
one of the largest outliers from the accessibility curve
Lewisham has potential for higher employment densities than exist
at present and employment density in Lewisham is roughly at the

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level where employment density rises more steeply with increases in

accessibility. It may therefore be a location where improving
accessibility would have a disproportionate impact on employment.

Perhaps the biggest issue that is highlighted by the case studies is that
using ward level data is inadequate. Areas are too large and
accessibility varies too much within wards. In the City, where all the
wards have similar characteristics, this is not a problem. However, in the
regional and local centres, there are large differences both between and
within individual wards.

Information and Communication Technology

If information and communication technology (ICT) affects the demand

for transport, then there are important implications for the need for public
transport accessibility. Although some studies have found that
teleworking can improve productivity and reduce the demand for travel,
evidence suggests this is not typical. In most cases, a number of
practical issues restrict the implementation of teleworking, but it is the
issue of face-to-face contact that is most important. The overwhelming
issue preventing teleworking from replacing commuting (especially in
the central business districts of world cities) is that teleworking cannot
substitute for brainstorming, creativity, learning on the job and above all,
teamwork.

In many cases, ICT may generate more (or longer) trips than it replaces,
but in Central London the transport network is at or near capacity during
the peak period, and as a result, any potential for reducing demand
during that time is the focus of investigation. However, the type of
employment that exists in Central London is not conducive to
teleworking. Businesses in Central London pay premium rents for their
locations, and they do so because there are advantages of having
employees together in the central area. CBP examined the potential
reduction in commuting that could result from teleworking using the
assumption that Central London workers could work a maximum of two
days per week at home. CBP calculated the number of commuters on
London Underground (LUL) who are not engaged in client-facing work,
who are sufficiently senior, who do not (at present) telework at all, and
who live sufficiently far from work to make teleworking attractive. The
result is that the maximum possible reduction in AM peak trips from
teleworking is 9%, well below the forecast increases in central area
employment in the London plan.

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Conclusions

The study has found statistically significant relationships between

accessibility and employment density, accessibility and population
density and accessibility and property prices. The greatest explanatory
power is found in the relationship between accessibility and employment
density.

The case studies did not find a simple method for linking accessibility
improvements to potential generation of private sector investment. The
link between accessibility and employment density offers some insights
into London-wide trends, but in the brief analysis undertaken was unable
to provide much help at a ward level. It is possible that the analysis
would be more useful if undertaken at an individual site level.

Analysis of the impact of ICT suggests that increasing will not

significantly affect the need for expenditure on public transport capacity
to the central area.