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Meteorological predictions preserved in the Panchangam versus real-time

observations – a case study over Tirupati region – a semi-arid tropical site in
India
Article in Indian Journal of Science and Technology · April 2012
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Indian Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 5 No.4 (Apr 2012) ISSN: 0974- 6846
Meteorological predictions preserved in the Panchangam versus real-time observations – a case study over
Tirupati region – a semi-arid tropical site in India
Vanadeep K1*, Sada Siva Murty R2 and Krishnaiah M1

1
Department of Physics, Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati 517502, Andhra Pradesh, India
2
Rashtriya Sanskrita Vidya Peetha, Tirupati 517502, Andhra Pradesh, India
vanadeep303@gmail.com1*, ranisadasivamurty@yahoo.com2, profkrishnaiah.m@gmail.com1
Abstract
Panchangam is the traditional Hindu Almanac that has been in practice for 5,000 years. Invaluable meteorological
predictions are enshrined in it. They are generalized over a region, based on astrological phenomena like planet-star
conjunctions, transits, etc. Five components of Panchangam, namely Tithi, Vaaram, Nakshatram, Yogam and
Karanam, along with other terms, have been explained. Astrological conditions favouring scanty and copious rainfall
have been enlisted. General climatic summary of Panchangam months during the period of study (1992-2004) has
been furnished. Panchangam year starts from Chaitram (April) and ends with Phaalgunam (March). Popular ‘Pidaparthi
Panchangam’ was used for this study. To estimate rainfall quantity, an ancient unit ‘Aadhakam’ was employed, which is
equivalent to 1.6 cm of rain gauge. Maximum rainfall on any day of the year, mean annual rainfall, average South-West
and North-East monsoon rainfall, mean monsoonal rainfall, rainfall based on planetary reign, dominant cloud type and
resultant rainfall nature, direction of cloud origin and wind velocity over Tirupati region, which is a semi-arid tropical site
situated in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India, were compared with Panchangam predictions, using data provided by
India Meteorological Department (IMD). Correlation of individual observations with Panchangam predictions, ranged
from 9.7% to 94.4%. Overall, during study period, success rate of Panchangam predictions set against modern
observations was about 57%.
Keywords:Panchangam, Nakshatram, Conjunction, Planetary reign, Meteorological prediction.

Introduction (i) Theoretical methods
From times immemorial, Indians have been (ii) Observational methods.
employing phenomena like nature observation, study of Theoretical methods employ astronomical or
omens and prognostics, examination of winds, analyzing planetary factors and pertain to computation of planetary
the cloud patterns, planetary positions and conjunctions, positions and conjunction of planets and stars (Mishra et
nakshatram (star) influences and other aspects of al., 2002). The observational methods deal with
astrology, for predicting and forecasting the weather. The atmospheric changes, including cloud forms (sky
most important deciding factor in meteorological studies features) and biological and phenological indicators
is the estimation of the quantity of rainfall because (Mishra et al., 2002).
especially in a country like India, nearly 70% of the The term Vedam has its origin in the root word vid
population relies almost exclusively on agriculture and which means ‘to know’. Hence the Vedas are given the
agricultural production in India solely depends upon the utmost reverence as ‘store houses and treasures of
monsoon rainfall. Hence, accurate and astute predictions knowledge’, as popular English saying goes, "Knowing is
are inevitable for adequate preparations (Sandeep everything". There are six Vedangams which are meant
Acharya, 2011) for farming and these become even more to support, enhance, augment, preserve and protect the
indispensable to avert losses in agro forestry resources Vedas andthe principles enshrined in them. As the word
during times of adverse weather conditions and natural angam stands for ‘organ’ in Sanskrit, these Vedangams
calamities in many regions of the earth (Galacgac & can be declared to be the six limbs of the Vedas. They
Balisacan, 2009). are listed as follows:
Despite the extensive use of sophisticated advanced 1. Siksha (deals with the study of sounds and syllable
technology including satellites, weather prediction pronunciations)
models, etc., their success rate is minimal and they often 2. Chandas (deals with innumerable meters associated
fail to place themselves in considerable proximity to the with Vedic and Sanskrit slokams)
actual occurrence. Eventually, the methods enshrined in 3. Vyakaranam (deals with grammar as well as
ancient texts are being followed till date in some places to structures of words and sentences)
guesstimate the mysterious trends of rainfall and on the 4. Niruktam (elaborates on the meaning and
whole, of the weather. Weather lore has thus remained interpretation of intricate words and phrases)
an important form of local forecasting in many areas 5. Jyotisham (deals with the study of the transits,
through centuries (Burghart, 2000). conjunctions et cetera of celestial bodies like the Sun,
Indigenous methods of weather forecasting in ancient the Moon, planets, comets and stars as well as their
scriptures can be broadly classified into two categories: influences on the mankind and on the earth as a
Research article “Panchangam vs real-time observation” Vanadeep et al.
Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee) http://www.indjst.org Indian J.Sci.Technol.
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whole. Based on these predictions, auspicious times perennial Krishna river of Andhra Pradesh. The period of
for the performance of various rituals are determined) study was from 1992 to 2004, for a period of 12 years.
6. Kalpam (deals with various sacrifices, ceremonies and The Solar Cycle in the Sun has a duration of 11-12
rituals (from birth to death), associated with day-to-day years approximately wherein the Sun undergoes
life) significant changes in temperature, sunspots, emission of
The classical Hindu astrological almanac known as solar flares and its magnetic field, where the north and
Panchangam, prepared for public use from Vedanga the south poles of the Sun are reversed and interchanged
Jyotishyam period (1,400 BC – 1,300 BC) (Sivaprakasam (This is anticipated in mid-2012 as forecasted by the
& Kanakasabai, 2009) stands out as the best National Aeronautics and Space Administration; NASA)
exemplification for ancient traditional texts that employ and others.
theoretical methods. The book published yearly gives Right from the Vedic period, the Sun was attributed
information on daily basis and extensively used by the with twelve names and forms, one for every month. They
astrologers for making astrological calculations and the are called Dwaadasa Aadityas [Dwaadasa means
farmers to start the farming activity based on the ‘Twelve’ in Sanskrit and the word ‘Aaditya’ stands for the
prediction of rainfall (Bharadwaj Dinesh, 2004). More ‘Sun’, who is believed to be the Son of Aditi, the Mother of
significantly, the generation of hydro-electric power in Gods (Devatas)] which are listed in Table 1.
India is entirely at the mercy of monsoon rainfall. Jupiter takes one Earth Year to traverse through one
Kanani and Pastakia Astad (1999) opined that there Zodiac constellation (perceived from Earth’s time
was a need to identify and test old literature and oral perspective) and by the time it traverses through all the
traditions across different climatic zones. Comparative 12 constellations and completes one sidereal revolution
studies were undertaken by correlating the Panchangam around the Sun, it exhausts 12 Earth Years. The (Earth)
predictions with the actual rainfall recorded by IMD (Misra Year calculated on the basis of Jupiter’s revolution is
et al., 2002). Nakshatram (Star) also has considerable called a “Jovian (Jupiter) or Barhaspatya year”. Hence,
influence on the amount of rainfall (De et al., 2004). five revolutions of Jupiter around the Sun is the basis for
Rain forecasting based on Panchangam or Hindu constituting the 60- (Earth) year cycle which is in vogue in
Almanac is a common practice among farmers (Ravi the traditional Panchangams.
Shankar et al, 2008).However, it has been a prevalent Besides, in Hindu Mythology and numerology, Lord
notion that local forecasting combines empirical Vishnu, The Sustainer among the Hindu Trinity, is said to
observations and spiritual insights that draw from a be the Presiding Deity of this number and hence, this is
variety of religious traditions (Roncoli et al., 2001). revered as one of the most pious and auspicious
Hence, the need of the hour is to integrate the traditional numbers in India.
and scientific weather forecast systems to develop a
comprehensively decisive mechanism for rainfall Fig.1. Map of India showing the place of study, Tirupati
prediction in the coming years. (marked as a red point) situated in the State of Andhra
In the present study, the traditional weather Pradesh (shaded in orange)
predictions of the Panchangam for a period of 12 years,
from 1992-2004 were compared and correlated with the
actual recorded values over Tirupati region, a world-
renowned pilgrimage centre in India.
Materials and methods
Significance of the number 12
The day is composed of 24 hours, usually divided into
two halves of 12 hours each, i.e., forenoon and afternoon.
The Sun’s transit through the twelve zodiac constellations
constitute a solar year of 12 months (One constellation
per month). The contemporary Gregorian calendar also
has 12 months.
The number 12 has a great prominence in Indian
heritage. A period of 12 years is called a “Pushkaram” in
Sanskrit. Many great world-renowned festivities like
Kumbha Mela of Allahabad, etc. are held once in every
12 years. Special Pushkaram celebrations for rivers like
Ganga, Yamuna, Krishna, Kaveri, Godavari,
Tungabhadra, et cetera are organized by the respective
state governments of India with great pageantry and
grandeur. Moreover, the first year of study 1992 marks
the year of the pious Pushkaram celebrations of the
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It is also believed that exactly at 12:00 PM in the 3. Nakshatram (Star/Star Cluster in which moon is
afternoon, when the Sun is at the Zenith from our placed/aligned at that particular time)
perspective, Abhijit star is on the ascendancy which is 4. Yogam (Auspiciousness)
called “Abhijit muhurtham”. When no other Muhurtam 5. Karanam (half a Tithi)
(Auspicious time) is to be identified during the day, this Tithi (Lunar Day)
particular time is considered to be always auspicious for A tithi is an exact lunar day, which is approximately
marriages and other such pious ceremonies and also one-thirtieth of the time it takes the moon to orbit the
believed to bring about victories, by Hindus. earth. Mathematically, each tithi represents a 12-degree
Place of study: Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh, India longitudinal separation between the sun and the moon. A
Tirupati is the abode of the richest shrine in the world tithi may vary in length from day to day. There are 15
that of Lord Venkateswara, situated in Chittoor district of tithis in each fortnight. Their names are:
Andhra Pradesh at an average altitude of 182.9 meters Padyami/Prathama, Vidiya/Dvitiya, Tadiya/Tritiya,
above sea level at 13.39oN latitude and 79.250E Chaviti/Chaturthi, Panchami, Shasthi, Saptami, Ashtami,
longitude, as in Fig.1. This is a semi-arid region with Navami, Dasami, Ekadasi, Dvadasi, Trayodasi,
prevalent continental type of climate. This temple city is Chaturdasi and Amavasya/Purnima. Purnima, full-moon
an internationally renowned, spiritual, educational and a day, is the fifteenth tithi of the bright fortnight, and
buzzing commercial centre surrounded by industrial and Amavasya, new-moon day, is the fifteenth tithi of the dark
agricultural environs. fortnight. (In many Panchangams, the new moon is
Broadly, in a year, Tirupati has three distinct seasons: numbered as the thirtieth tithi).
Summer (March-May), Monsoon (July-September), and Table 2. Solar days with their English counterparts and ruling
winter (November-January). February, June and October planets
months are considered to be transition periods with Solar Day (Vaaram)
English Ruling Planet
relatively stable weather conditions with sunny days. Counterpart (King)
Geographically, since Tirupati is in proximity to the Bhaanu ( Ravi) vaaram Sunday Sun
coastal regions of Nellore and Chennai, this region Indu (Soma) vaaram Monday Moon
receives prominent amounts of rainfall whenever there Mangala (Bhouma)
are cyclonic formations in the Bay of Bengal, off the coast Tuesday Mars
vaaram
of Chennai and coastal Nellore. Due to this, along with Budha (Soumya)
Wednesday Mercury
the South-West monsoon, the North-East monsoon vaaram
(October-December) also brings copious rains to this Guru (Brihaspati)
Thursday Jupiter
region. vaaram
Table 1. The twelve Adityas and their ruling periods Sukra vaaram Friday Venus
The 12 Adityas Ruling Month Lunar Month Shani vaaram Saturday Saturn
1 Dhaata March – April Chaitram Vaaram or Vaasaram (Solar Day)
2 Aryama April – May Vaisakham The traditional Hindu calendar also recognizes the
3 Mitra May – June Jyeshtham solar day,Vaaram or Vaasaram. The vaasaram begins
with sunrise (at about 6:00 AM) and ends with sunrise the
4 Varuna June – July Ashadham
next day, based on the rotation of the earth on its axis.
5 Indra July – August Sravanam Each solar day is divided into 24 horas (hours). Horas are
6 Vivasvan Aug – Sept Bhadrapadam assigned to the planets in their descending sidereal
7 Tvashtha Sept – Oct Aswayujam period. There are seven days in the week, and each is
8 Vishnu Oct – Nov Karthikam most strongly influenced by a particular planet which is
9 Amshuman Nov – Dec Margasirsham tabulated in Table 2.
Nakshatram (Star)
10 Bhaga Dec – Jan Pushyam
In Hindu astrology, the term ‘nakshatram’ refers to 27
11 Pusha Jan – Feb Maagham particular stars/star-clusters, as listed in Table 3, which lie
12 Parjana Feb – March Phalgunam along the ecliptic .The ecliptic is the apparent yearly path
Panchangam, the Hindu almanac of the Sun as seen from the earth. ‘Na’ in Sanskrit stands
When we consider the etymology of the word for ‘negation (not)’ and ‘Kshatam’ means ‘destructible’.
‘Panchangam’, the Sanskrit word means ‘the one which Hence Nakshatram means an ‘indestructible entity’. The
consists of five organs/limbs’ (Pancha means ‘five’ and root word ‘tra’ in Sanskrit stands for ‘protection’. On the
anga stands for ‘organ or limb’). Panchangam deals with consummate, Nakshatram therefore signifies ‘something
the five attributes of Hindu calendar. They are: that is itself indestructible and protects’ or, in other words,
1. Tithi (Lunar Day) ‘that which safeguards everything from being destroyed
2. Vaaram or Vaasaram (Solar Day) or perished’. From these, we can effortlessly presume
that, by providing this particular nomenclature of
Nakshatram to a star, our ancestral think-tank was well
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Table 3. Nakshatrams and their modern counterparts the earth. All of the planets, one after another, pass
Nakshatram Name in Star Name in Modern through the ecliptic and align with each of the 27
Ancient Astrology Astronomy nakshatrams. The most important “nakshatram” (star/star
1 Ashwini Beta Arietis cluster) is the one with which the moon is currently
2 Bharani 41 Arietis aligned, as the moon’s influence is said to be the most
influential on daily life on Earth.
3 Krittika Alcyone-2-Pleiades
All the nakshatrams given in Hindu calendar are for
4 Rohini Aldebaran the Moon. This means that the nakshatram currently in
5 Mrigasira Lambda Orionis effect is the one that the Moon has “conjoined.” (Similarly,
6 Ardra Betelguese 7 the current raasi, the Zodiac sign/Constellation, is the one
7 Punarvasu Pollux 11 that the moon has conjoined), (Satguru Sivaya
8 Pushyami Delta Cancri Subramuniyaswami, 1997). The Hindu mythological
9 Aslesha Epsilon Hydrae legend has it that these 27 stars are the wives of the
10 Makha Alpha Leonis Moon, who is said to have exceptional affinity towards
11 Purva Phalguni Delta Leonis Rohini among them. Hence, the conjunction of Moon with
Rohini star has been attributed a distinctive prominence
12 Uttara Phalguni Beta Leonis
in astrology and is believed to have momentous impact
13 Hasta Delta Corvi on weather phenomena.
14 Chitra Spica 16 Based on the effects and results produced by these
15 Swati Arcturus 17 27 stars on the Earth and Mankind, the stars are
16 Visakha Alpha-2-Libra classified into various categories by ancient seers:
17 Anuradha Delta Scorpionis 1. Light: Ashwini, Pushya and Hasta
18 Jyeshtha Alpha Scorpionis 2. Soft: Mrigasira, Chitra, Anuradha and Revathi
3. Fixed: Rohini, Uttara Phalguni, Uttarashadha and
19 Mula Lambda Scorpionis
Uttara Proshtapada (Uttaraabhaadra)
20 Purvashadha Delta Sagittari 4. Moveable: Punarvasu, Swati, Sravana, Dhanishtha
21 Uttarashadha Sigma Sagittari and Shatabhishak
22 Sravana Alpha Aquibe 5. Sharp: Ardra, Aslesha, Jyeshtha and Mula
23 Dhanishtha Alpha Delphia 6. Dreadful: Bharani, Makha, Purva Phalguni,
24 Shatabhishak Lambda Aqurii Purvashadha and Purva Proshtapada
Purva Proshtapada (Purvaabhaadra)
25 Alpha Pegasi
(Purvabhaadra) 7. Mixed: Krittika and Visakha
Uttara Proshtapada These Nakshatrams are also called ‘Lunar Mansions
26 Gamma Pegasi
(Uttaraabhaadra) or houses or stations’ with respect to the moon’s
27 Revathi Zeta Piscium conjunction with them. In general, they are called by the
versed with the life-sustaining nature of a star (e.g., the name ‘Asterisms’.
Sun) from eons of time. This property of a star was (Further, it is to be noted that, to this group of 27
realized by the western astronomers very recently. nakshatrams, one more nakshatram namely, Abhijit is
When a planet comes into alignment with one of the sometimes added towards the end of Uttarashadha
stars from the view of an individual on the earth, the rays nakshatram. Abhijit is situated in the region of Vega star
of the stars combine with those of the planet to influence in the constellation of Lyra. Since this star is not
encountered on the path of the Sun (Solar Ecliptic) as all
Table 4. Seven Naadis and their associated effect on the other 27 nakshatrams are, this can be ignored while
weather
considering the main nakshatrams in astrology and
Saptaa (Seven) Naadis Effect on weather
Panchangam. It is also believed that exactly at 12:00 PM
Bright Sunshine with no in the afternoon, when the Sun is at the Zenith from our
1 Chanda/Vaata Naadi
rainfall;Windy
perspective, Abhijit star is on the ascendancy which is
Vaayu/Athivaata Sunshine and Cold Wind
2 called “Abhijit muhurtham”. When no other Muhurtam
Naadi with normal rainfall
Strong hot Winds (Auspicious time) is to be identified during the day, this
Vanhi/Agni/Dahana particular time is considered to be always auspicious for
3 (Westerlies) with increase
Naadi marriages and other such pious ceremonies and also
in temperature
4 Soumya Naadi Normal Rainfall believed to bring about victories, by Hindus).
5 Neera Naadi Very good rainfall Karanam
6 Jala Naadi Abundant Rainfall In Sanskrit, a ‘Karanam’ refers to ‘actions that could
Heavy to very heavy and be executed at that précise point of time’. An overview of
7 Amrita Naadi copious rainfall, causing the karanams in the panchangam would prefigure the
floods quality of time to perform a given activity at that instance
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and the ensuing consequences accrued from them. A conjoined on the day of Purnima or Full moon day (as
karanam is half of a tithi or lunar day. There are two perceived by an observer on the earth). They are:
karanams in a single tithi. The Karanam is calculated to 1. Chaitram (March-April)
be 6 degrees of longitudinal separation between the Sun 2. Vaisaakham (April- May)
and the Moon. Here, one may recall that a Tithi is 3. Jyeshtham (May-June)
calculated to be 12 degrees of longitudinal separation 4. Aashaadham(June-July)
between the sun and the moon. The names of the 11 5. Sraavanam (July- August)
karanams that rotate through the 30 tithis of a lunar 6. Bhaadrapadam (August-September)
month are: Bhava, Balava, Kaulava, Taitila, Gara, Vanij, 7. Aaswayujam (September-October)
Visti, Sakuni, Chatuspada, Naga and Kimtughna. 8. Kaarthikam(October-November)
Yogam 9. Maargaseersham (November-December)
In Sanskrit, Yogam means a ‘union’. So, it is a 10. Pousham (December-January)
planetary configuration, union or relationship. The yogam 11. Maagham (January-February)
is a factor used by astrologers for determining the 12. Phaalgunam (February-March)
auspiciousness of the day. This is an angle of the sun The actual durations of the months mentioned above
and the moon with the earth being the point of the may slightly vary depending upon the transit time of the
angle. Yogam is the period during which the combined lunar motion through the Nakshatrams (Stars).
longitudinal motion of the Sun and the Moon amounts to The nomenclature ‘Monsoon’ has been derived from
130 201 (13 degrees and 20 minutes). Hence, this truly the Arabic word ‘Mausam’ which has its root in the
represents the Luni-Solar aspect of the Panchangam. Sanskrit term ‘Maasam’.
Like the nakshatrams, there are 27 yogas. They are: Paksham (Fortnight)
Vishakambha, Priti, Ayushman, Saubhagya, Sobhana, The lunar month is the duration of one revolution of
Atiganda, Sukarma, Dhriti, Sula, Ganda, Vriddhi, Dhruva, the moon around the earth. This period is divided into two
Vyaghat, Harshana, Vajra, Siddhi, Vyatipatha, Variyan, pakshams (fortnights) as mentioned below. In Sanskrit,
Parigha, Siva, Siddha, Sadhya, Subha, Sukla, Brahma, paksham means ‘partial’.
Indra and Vaidhriti. 1. Bright Fortnight (Shukla Paksham): The period of
From these, we can infer that Tithi, Yogam and waxing of moon till Full Moon (Purnima)
Karanam are all a measure of the relationship between 2. Dark Fortnight (Krishna Paksham): The period of
the Sun and the Moon. In Hindu Astrology, both the Sun waning of moon till New Moon (Amavasya)
and the Moon have been perceived to cast an immense Ayanam
influence on daily life and thus, their motions and Each year is divided into two halves, each known as
conjunctions are precisely calculated. Ayanam. It is the six month period-Uttarayanam and
Raasi (Moon/Sun Sign) Dakshinayanam. Ayanam in Sanskrit stands for ‘path’.
Raasi in Sanskrit means a ‘grouping or Uttarayanam begins on the day of the winter solstice,
conglomeration’. This is the reason why a constellation is normally December 21, when the sun begins its apparent
called a raasi in astrology. It is the zodiac sign through northward journey (Uttaram in Sanskrit means ‘North’).
which the moon currently passes through. This is denoted Dakshinayanam begins on the first day of the summer
by the degree (angle) of the moon sign as perceived at solstice, normally June 21, marking Sun’s southward
06:00 AM in the morning. It is a known fact that moon movement (Dakshinam means ‘South’ in Sanskrit). The
travels 12o per day. The 12 raasis are: two days commencing the two ayanams are considered
1. Mesha (Aries); extremely auspicious by Hindus.
2. Vrshabha (Taurus) Samvatsaram (Year)
3. Mithuna (Gemini) According to the traditional Hindu Almanac
4. Karkataka (Cancer) (Panchangam), there are 60 years in all. This is based on
5. Simha (Leo) the time Jupiter takes to complete 5 revolutions around
6. Kanya (Virgo) the Sun. Jupiter travels through the 12 Zodiac
7. Thula (Libra) constellations (Raasis) to complete one sidereal
8. Vrischika (Scorpio) revolution around the Sun. The duration of this one
9. Dhanush (Sagittarius) sidereal revolution (one year) of Jupiter is equivalent to
10. Makara (Capricorn) the time taken by the earth to complete 12 sidereal
11. Kumbha (Aquarius) revolutions, i.e.
12. Meena (Pisces) One Jupiter Year = Twelve Earth Years
The Sun takes about one month to traverse through Five Jupiter Years = Sixty Earth Years
each of the twelve zodiac signs mentioned above, which It means that Jupiter takes one Earth Year to traverse
constitute the 12 months of a solar year. Likewise, there through one Zodiac constellation (perceived from Earth’s
are 12 lunar months or maasams based on the time perspective) and by the time it traverses through all
nakshatram (star/star cluster) with which moon is the 12 constellations and completes one sidereal
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revolution around the Sun, it would have exhausted 12 is used for determining the dates of religious festivals and
Earth Years. The (Earth) Year calculated on the basis of for selecting auspicious times for beginning many socio-
Jupiter’s revolution is called a “Jovian (Jupiter) or religious activities. Vedic Calendar uses both the solar
Barhaspatya year” and this system is known as month and the lunar month and would be known as a
“Barhaspatya varsha or Jovian (Jupiter) Year system”. “Luni-Solar Calendar”. For business purposes and
Hence, five revolutions of Jupiter around the Sun modern convenience, we use the Gregorian year which
constitute the 60-year cycle which is in vogue in the follows neither a solar month system nor a lunar month
traditional panchangams, the list of which is given as system (Satguru Sivaya Subramuniyaswami, 1997).
follows: Prabhava, Vibhava, Sukla, Pramoda, Prajapati, Rutu (Season)
Angirasa, Srimukha, Bhava, Yuva, Dhatri, Isvara, Table 5.The six Rutus (Seasons) in India
Bahudhanya, Pramathi, Vikrama, Vrisha, Chitrabhanu, Rutua (Season) Season Months
Subhanu, Tarana, Parthiva, Vyaya, Sarvajit, Sarvadharin, 1 Vasanta Spring March to April
Virodhi Vikrita, Khara, Nandana, Vijaya, Jaya, Manmatha, 2 Greeshma Summer May to June
Durmukha, Hemalamba, Vilamba, Vikarin, Sarvari, Plava,
Varsha / July to
Subhakrit, Sobhana, Krodhin, Visvavasu, Parabhava, 3 Rainy Season
Pravrut September
Palavanga, Kilaka, Sowmya, Sadharana, Virodhakrit, September to
Paridhavi, Pramadin, Ananda, Rakshasa, Anala (or Nala), 4 Sarath Autumn
November
Pingala, Kalayukta, Siddharthi, Raudra, Durmati, November to
5 Hemantha Winter
Dundubhi, Rudhirodgari, Raktaksha, Krodhana and January
Akshaya (Equated to earth years in practice). Trees shed their
January to
Hence, it is conventional in India to celebrate the 6 Sisira leaves and Winter
March
occasion of the completion of 60 years of age/life by a is at its peak
man, by the name “Shasthyabda Poorthi” (meaning Traditionally, there are six seasons (Rutus) in India,
‘Completion of 60 years’). each spanning over a period of about two months. The
Naadi six seasons in India are listed in Table 5.The word ‘rutu’ is
For predicting the monsoon and its subsequent derived from the Vedic Sanskrit word ‘Rta’ which means
effects on weather, almost all panchangams consider ‘order’ or ‘course of things’. Hence, this designates a fixed
three different Naadi Siddhantams (Capsular theories). or an appointed time, particularly the proper time for
These are known as ‘Naadi Chakras’. The word sacrificial rituals (Yagnyam).
‘Chakram’ in Sanskrit signifies a cycle. They are: The panchangam used for the present study
1. Dwi (Two) Naadi Chakras In Andhra Pradesh also, we use Panchangams of
2. Tri (Three) Naadi Chakras dominant lunar dependence with a ‘luni-solar’ nature.
3. Sapta (Seven) Naadi Chakras ‘Ama-anta’ month system (Ama- Amavasya (New Moon
Of these three, Sapta Naadi chakras are the most Day); Anta- ‘end’) is followed in these Panchangams.
significant and are said to have a pronounced influence Each month ends with Amavasya. Another aspect of the
on weather and especially rainfall. Table 4 lists all the lunar calendar is that a lunar year contains about 336
seven Naadis and their respective effects on weather days as it takes nearly 27-28 days for the Moon to trace
conditions. From the Panchangam, depending on the its orbit around the earth (28 days per one lunar month x
dominant Naadi Sanchaaram (Movement) of the 12 months = 336 days per one lunar year). This is 30
nakshatrams (stars) and grahas (Planets), during the days i.e., exactly one month shorter than the solar year
respective month, one can estimate the likely weather which has 365.25 days. So, just as every 4th year in a
conditions during that particular month. solar calendar must add an extra day (leap year) to make
(Generally, ‘Naadi’ in Physiology means a ‘nerve up for the discrepancy in the earth’s orbit around the Sun,
center’ or ‘neural junction’. Even our Pulse is also Similarly, for every 30 months or so, the lunar calendar
considered to be a naadi. According to Spiritual Science must add an extra month to compensate for this deficit.
and Metaphysics, there are about 72,000 such naadis in This leap month is known as Adhika Maasam (The
our human body. They are said to be the sustainers of Additional Month) in Panchangam terminology. It has
Life Energy (Prana Sakti) in various forms. Most of the been a convention to insert this Adhika Maasam after the
ancient forms of martial arts in ‘The Orient’ and elsewhere months of Aashadham, Sraavanam, Bhaadrapadam and
employ certain techniques that tactically target the nerve Aaswayujam, as the case may be. For instance, if the
centers (naadis) of the opponent’s body. In Astrology, month is to be added after Aaswayuja month in a
there is a system called ‘naadi jyotishyam’, wherein, even particular year, then, the original Aaswayuja month will be
the minutest details of the past and future of a person’s given the nomenclature ‘Nija Aaswayujam’ and the
life are revealed with great degree of accuracy, which can additional month, Adhika Aaswayujam. Thus, every
be seen in Vaideeswaran Koyil in Tamilnadu). second or third lunar year contains 13 months which
In India, several states use a solar-year calendar contributes considerably to the minimization of
while others use the lunar-year calendar. Lunar calendar dissimilarities between the solar and the lunar years,
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Table 6. King, minister and lord of clouds during the years in deliberation
Phalguna Krishna Paksha (Bahula)
Year Name in Christian Meghadhipathi
King Minister Amavasya, which normally occurs during the
Panchangam Era (Lord of Clouds)
month of March.
1 Angirasa 1992-1993 Saturn Moon Sun For every year, there will be a King,
2 Srimukha 1993-1994 Mercury Mars Mars Minister, Senadhipathi (Commander-in-chief
3 Bhava 1994-1995 Moon Jupiter Mercury of forces/army), Sasyadhipathi (Lord of
4 Yuva 1995-1996 Saturn Venus Jupiter Agriculture, Crops and Greenery),
5 Dhatru 1996-1997 Mercury Saturn Venus Dhanyadhipathi (Lord of food grains),
6 Iswara 1997-1998 Mars Sun Sun Arghadhipathi (Lord of Water),
7 Bahudhanya 1998-1999 Saturn Mars Moon Meghadhipathi (Lord of Clouds and Rainfall),
8 Pramathi 1999-2000 Jupiter Mercury Mars et cetera. Each of the above rulers for that
9 Vikrama 2000-2001 Mercury Jupiter Mercury particular year will be determined from the
10 Vrisha 2001-2002 Moon Venus Venus
seven ruling planets Sun, Moon, Mars,
11 Chitrabhanu 2002-2003 Saturn Sun Saturn
Saturn, Jupiter, Venus and Mercury. King,
12 Swa(Su)bhanu 2003-2004 Mercury Moon Sun
Minister and Meghadhipathi of all the years
thus, transforming the calendar into the one of a ‘Luni- of period of study are tabulated in Table 6.
Solar’ nature. The panchangam used for the present Cloud categories in panchangam
study was prepared by the famous Pidaparthi house, Panchangam also predicts the details of the
popularly known as “Pidaparthi Panchangam”. Erstwhile, predominant cloud types likely to occur during the year.
this was released by the well-known daily of Andhra During the study period (1992-2004), Pushkaram,
Pradesh ‘Andhra Patrika’ that came to be known as Samvartakam, Avartakam, Tamo, Vaayu, Varuna,
“Andhra Patrika Panchangam”. This was prepared as per Neelam, Kaalam and Dronam clouds were predicted to
the ‘Indian Ephemeris and Nautical Almanac’, the be prevalent. As per the ancient classification, the cloud
guidelines for which were laid down by the ‘Calendar types and the probable trend of rainfall they are expected
Reform Committee’ constituted by Government of India. to cause are given in Table 7. It is quite fascinating to
Moreover, this very Pidaparthi Panchangam has been note that the current classification of clouds into four
recognized and accepted by Government of India as a categories, interpreted based on their altitude in
atmosphere, namely Cirro, Alto, Strato and Cumuli,
Table 7. Basic cloud types and rainfall trends based on ancient knowledge,
Note: Dronam in Sanskrit means ‘a pot’. In Hindu mythology, Dronacharya (the mentor of Kauravas and Pandavas in the
Mahabharata) and Sage Agasthya are called Khumbha-Sambhavas or Drona Sambhavas as they are said to be born from
pots(cloning-test tube babies)). The very name ‘Dronacharya’ itself tells the story. Dronam clouds resemble the shape of a pot
which coincides with the description of the modern Cumulonimbus clouds with the imposing anvil at their top and they are said to
cause copious rains similar to the bountiful flow of water poured down from a pot
Cloud Type Resultant Rainfall Trend
1 Avartakam (May be Alto form Clouds like Altostratus and Altocumulus) Scattered Rainfall in certain places
Samvartakam (May be Strato form clouds like Stratus, Stratocumulus and Moderate to good and uniform showers across
2
Nimbostratus) various locations
Pushkaram (May be Cirro form clouds like Cirrus, Cirrostratus and
3 Low amounts of Precipitation
Cirrocumulus or even Fair Weather Cumulus)
4 Dronam (May be Cumuliform Clouds like Cumulus and Cumulonimbus) Abundant Rainfall is recorded all over the region
standard reference almanac. perfectly suits the four major ancient cloud types
Panchangams for a year are usually prepared before envisioned in the Panchangam, namely, Pushkaram,
the commencement of the intended year, during the Avartakam, Samvartakam and Dronam.
previous year itself. Hence, the main aim of this study is Table 8. Ruling planets (Kings) and their influence on the
to compare and correlate the meteorological predictions annual rainfall of that particular year
of the traditional Panchangam with the actual recorded Ruling planet (King) Nature of rainfall
values over the Tirupatiregion, using the data provided by 1 Ravi/Surya (Sun) Moderate
the India Meteorological Department (IMD). 2 Kuja/Angaraka (Mars) Scanty
This Panchangam is modeled on the Telugu system 3 Budha (Mercury) Good (Windy Weather)
of New Year which starts from the tithi Chaitra Shukla Guru/Brihaspati
4 Satisfactory
Padyami, which usually falls in the month of April and is (Jupiter)
Shukra/Bhargava
known by the name Ugadi. This is believed to be the time 5
(Venus)
Heavy
when Lord Brahma, the Creator among The Hindu Trinity, Very Scanty (With Strong
started the conception of this Universe. This is a principal 6 Shani/Manda (Saturn)
Winds)
festivity in Andhra Pradesh. The year ends with the tithi 7 Chandra/Soma (Moon) Very Heavy
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Our ancestors have also made an attempt to foretell Dronam and found this conversion factor to be 6.4 cm
the nature of rainfall based on the ruling planet (King) of (Balkundi, 1999).
that particular year which is tabulated in Table 8. Hence, 1 Aadhakam= 1.6 cm
Table 9. Panchangam predictions of some weather phenomena during the study period.
Direction of Parts of Rainfall
Year Cloud Type Type of Rainfall
Cloud Origin In Sea On Hills On Land
1992-93 Pushkaram Less Rain North-East 9 5 7
Less Rain with excess of
1993-94 Samvartakam North 7 10 4
wind
1994-95 Avartakam Less Rain North 7 10 4
1995-96 Tamo Scattered Rainfall West 9 5 7
Lack of Rain due to Windy
1996-97 Vaayu North-West 7 10 4
Weather
1997-98 Varunam Heavy Rainfall South-West 10 7 4
1998-99 Neelam Heavy Rains South-East 9 5 7
1999-
Kaalam Low Rainfall South 8 9 4
2000
Incessant and Consistent
2000-01 Dronam East 7 10 4
Rainfall
2001-02 Pushkaram Less Rain North-East 7 10 4
Weather remains Windy-
2002-03 Samvartakam North 9 5 7
Less Rain
2003-04 Avartakam Less Rain North 7 10 4
Note: Meanings of Cloud Nomenclatures in Sanskrit:
a) Pushkaram: 1. A blue lotus 2. The edge of an elephant’s trunk 3. Sky 4. Water 5. The son of Varuna (The Rain-God)
b) Samvartakam: 1. The name of the plough of Lord Balarama (Lord Krishna’s elder brother in the Hindu Mythology, who always holds
plough in his hands, which is his principle weapon) 2. A mythological mare
c) Avartakam: 1. that which recurs itself again and again 2. A cyclonic or whirlpool-like formation 3. That which is bent, curved and
retracted
d) Dronam: a pot
e) Tamo: 1. Darkness 2. Laziness
f) Vaayu: (that which generates and propels) Wind
g) Varunam: (of or related to) Varuna, The Rain-God
h) Neelam: 1. the color black 2. A hill 3. The name of a “Nidhi” (treasure)
i) Kaalam: 1. Thick black in colour 2. Time 3. Lord Yama (The Death-God) Generally, ‘kaala’ clouds originate in the southern direction for
which Lord Yama is believed to be the ruler
As per the Panchangam, when Sun is the King, it Therefore, 1 Dronam = 4 Aadhakams= 1.6 x 4 = 6.4 cm
results in poor crop yield. Under the rule of Mars, there is In the Panchangam, the dimensions of an Aadhakam
extensive damage to crops. When Mercury happens to of rainfall have been provided and hold good over a
reign over the year, there will be plenty of harvest. Good standard area of up to 100 yojanams in height and 60
harvest can be expected during the period of Jupiter’s yojanams in width. One Yojanam equals to 8 Mile or 13
kingship. There is every chance of variety of food grains Km. approximately (Richard Thompson, 1997).
being harvested during the rule of Venus. Saturn’s tenure In the Present Panchangam, the range of rainfall has
on the throne accounts for a poor yield. Moon is the been given in Deva Maanam calculation (The
benefactor of crops with copious rains that consequently mensuration standards of Gods. In Sanskrit, the word
results in a very good harvest. This system of determining ‘Deva’ means ‘Gods’’ and the term ‘Maanam’ refers to
the nature of rainfall was believed to be first popularized ‘Measurement’) in yojanams as specified above, which is
by Sage Parasara in his famous treatise ‘Krishi Parasara’. too huge and unviable to deal with practically. Hence, a
Measurement of rainfall localized term ‘Kuncham’ has been employed in the
The measurement of quantity of rainfall in the present present Panchangam. One Kuncham is considered to be
Panchangam is given in terms of an ancient traditional equal to 484 square yards. This is used extensively in
unit Aadhakam. It was found that one Aadhakam equals coastal Andhra Pradesh in land transactions.
in weight to 7 Lbs. or 11 OZ (Avoir dupois) (Tripathi, One Kuncham = 484 Square yards
1969). 1 Aadhakam equals to7 Lbs. or 11 OZ (Avoir Ten Kunchams = 4840 Square Yards = One Acre
dupois). Balkundi, a meteorologist, had found that one However, in this Panchangam, Kuncham has been
Aadhakam equals to 1.6 cm in modern measurements used as an equivalent measure to Aadhakam in
2
(when a standard rain gauge of area 200 cm is used) volumetric mensuration. Here, it has been envisioned as
and four such Aadhakams equal in quantity to one a vessel with a capacity to accommodate the volume of
rain water which measures the same as 1.6 cm or 16 mm
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of rain water collected in a modern rain gauge of area 200 parameters during the period of 12 years considered for
2
cm . the study.
According to Sage Parasara, an Aadhakamis the Panchangam also enshrines certain astrological
capacity of a circular vessel whose diameter is 20 symptoms and conditions including planet-planet
Angulams and depth is8 Angulams. Generally, one conjunctions, planet-star concurrences, planetary
Angulam is considered to be almost equal to 1 inch. alignments, transit paths, etc., which are supposed to
During some instances, 1 Angulam has been treated to foist their impact on the trend of rainfall during that
th
be 3/4 of an inch and even sometimes 1-3/8inch. Hence, particular month and also year, as a whole. An attempt
here, has been made here to enlist these astrological
Table 10.List of Kaarti Periods with Respective Rainfall Conditions
Kaartia Starts towards- Rainfall
1 Bharani Kaarti The end of the last week of April Chances of Good Rainfall
2 Kruttika Kaarti The end of the second week of May Low
Normal; Monsoon sets in immediately after
3 Rohini Kaarti The end of the fourth week of May
the completion of this Rohini Kaarti Period.
4 Mrigasira Kaarti The beginning of second week of June Low to Good
5 Ardra Kaarti The beginning of fourth week of June Good to Very Good
Punarvasu
6 The end of first week of July Almost No Rainfall
Kaarti
7 Pushyami Kaarti The end of the third week of July Normal
8 Aslesha Kaarti The middle of the first week of August Good
9 Makha Kaarti The middle of the third week of August Low Rainfall with dense clouds
Purvashadha
10 (Pubba/Purva) The end of August and beginning of September Low Rainfall with dense clouds
Kaarti
Uttarashadha
11 The end of second week of September Normal
(Uttara) Kaarti
12 Hasta Kaarti The end of September Normal
13 Chitra Kaarti The middle of second week of October Good
14 Swati Kaarti The middle of the fourth week of October Good Rainfall accompanied by Wind
15 Visakha Kaarti The end of the first week of November Low Rainfall accompanied by Wind
16 Anuradha Kaarti The end of third week of November Good Rainfall accompanied by Wind
Low to Normal Rainfall accompanied by
17 Jyeshtha Kaarti The middle of the first week of December
Wind
Normal to Heavy Rainfall accompanied by
18 Mula Kaarti The beginning of the third week of December
Wind
One Kuncham of rainfall = One Aadhakam of rainfall = conditions mentioned in the Panchangam from the
1.6 cm of rain water Chaitra month (March-April) of 1992 (Angirasa Year) to
Four Kunchams of rainfall = Four Aadhakams of rainfall = the Phaalguna month (February-March) of 2004
One Dronam Rain = 6.4 cm of rain water (Swabhanu year). It is to be retained that all these
Dronam in Sanskrit means ‘a pot’. Here, it represents conjunctions, transits, alignments, etc. are to be
a pot or a similar vessel with a capacity to accommodate considered from the view of an observer on the Earth (as
the volume of rain water which measures the same as 6.4 perceived from the Earth) and the term ‘Nakshatram’ shall
cm or 64 mm of rain water collected in a modern rain be often referred to as ‘Star’ from here onwards.
2
gauge of area 200 cm . Anaavrishti yogaha (astrological conditions favouring
Dominant cloud type, resultant nature of rainfall, scanty rainfall)
direction of cloud origin and proportions of rainfall 1. Kuja-GuruSama Saptakam (Sama in Sansktit means
occurring in sea, on mountains and on the remaining land ‘equal’ and Saptakam means ‘septet’. Mars and
portion (the total rainfall was considered to be of 21 parts) Jupiter are situated in 7th house from each other on a
for the corresponding year have been forecast in the mutual 1-7 axis)
Panchangam empirically. The following Table 9 presents 2. Movement of Mars in Uttaraabhaadra star
the Panchangam predictions for the fore stated 3. Saturn in curved orbit and Mars in linear orbit

2500
4. Mercury situated ahead of the Sun and Rahu (North 28. Mars in linear orbit and Saturn in curved orbit
Lunar Node), with Rahu in the middle 29. Movement of Mars in Makha star
5. Ravi-ShaniSama Saptakam (Sun and Saturn are 30. Mars in Leo Constellation
situated in 7th house from each other on a mutual 1-7 31. Mars ahead of all planets
axis) 32. Mercury appears in the East situated in Ardra star
6. Mercury situated ahead of all planets (Windy and its 3 counterparts (The quartet comprising Ardra,
Weather) Punarvasu, Pushya and Aslesha )
7. Jupiter situated ahead of Venus 33. Movement of Mars in Uttara Phalguni star
8. Saturn in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit 34. Mars and Jupiter in Kanya raasi (Virgo constellation)
35. Jupiter is situated ahead of Sun and all other planets
Fig. 2. Raahu and Ketu shown as Northern and Southern 36. Movement of Mars in Swati star
Lunar nodes respectively 37. Mars and Jupiter in Leo constellation
38. Mars and Jupiter situated in the same constellation
39. Venus appears in the East situated in Swati star and
its 2 counterparts (The triad consisting of Swati,
Visakha and Anuradha )
40. Movement of Mars in Jyeshtha star
41. Mars and Venus situated in the same constellation
42. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Mula star
43. Movement of Mars in Uttarashadha star
44. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Shatabhishak
star
45. Saturn ahead, followed by Mercury and Mars
respectively
46. Mercury-Jupiter-Saturn trio in curved orbits
47. Movement of Mars in Rohini star
9. Movement of Mars in Rohini star 48. Conjunction of Jupiter and Venus
49. Mercury-Venus-Saturn trio in curved orbits
10. Venus situated ahead of Raahu and Sun with Raahu
50. Movement of Mars in Aslesha star
(Northern Lunar Node as shown in Fig. 2) in the
middle 51. Mercury ahead, followed by Venus and Sun
11. Venus appears in the West, situated in the cluster of respectively
Makha nakshatram and its 4 counterparts. (Makha, 52. Mars in curved orbit and Saturn in linear orbit
Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra) 53. Movement of Venus in Makha star
12. Sun and Jupiter are situated in Simha raasi (Leo 54. Saturn ahead of Mars
Constellation) 55. Mars ahead of Saturn
13. Jupiter situated ahead of Sun 56. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Rohini star in
14. Saturn situated ahead of Venus the East
15. Saturn is situated ahead followed by Venus, which is 57. Conjunction of Sun, Mercury and Venus in Sun’s
followed by Jupiter and Sun respectively. orbital field (Excessive wind)
16. Movement of Mars in Ardra star 58. Good strong relation between Mars and Jupiter
17. Venus situated ahead and followed by Mercury, 59. Conjunction of Saturn and Mars
Jupiter and Sun taken in order. 60. Conjunction of Mercury and Mars
18. Sun and Jupiter situated in Kanya raasi (Virgo 61. Conjunction of Mars and Venus
Constellation) 62. Venus ahead of Mars
19. Venus ahead, followed by Mercury and Sun 63. Mars ahead of Venus
20. Mars and Venus in Sama Saptakam (Refer to points 64. Mercury and Venus in proximity with Mercury ahead
of Venus (Windy weather)
1 and 5 for the meaning of ‘Sama Saptakam’. This
Sanskrit astrological term will be used in original 65. Movement of Mars
without explaining its meaning again, from here 66. Jupiter situated ahead of Venus
onwards) 67. The rise of Venus
21. Venus ahead, followed by Saturn and Sun 68. Movement of Mars in Uttaraabhaadra star
22. Sun and Mars in Sama Saptakam mode 69. Conjunction of Mercury and Saturn
23. Mercury ahead of Saturn 70. Mercury ahead of Saturn
24. Sun and Jupiter in Sama Saptakam mode 71. Mercury ahead of Mars
25. Jupiter and Venus in Sama Saptakam mode 72. Saturn in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit
26. Mercury ahead of Venus ( Windy) 73. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Jyeshtha star
27. Movement of Mars in Aslesha star 74. Mercury rises in the East
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75. Venus ahead of all the other planets 24. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Swati star in
76. Mars in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit the East with Mercury ahead of Venus (This
77. Rise of Saturn particular conjuncture is known as ‘Jalaagama’,
78. Jupiter ahead of Mars where Jalam means ‘water’ (rain)and aagama
79. Movement of Mars in Revathi star means ‘arrival’ in Sanskritand this presages well for
80. Movement of Mars in Uttara Phalguni star a bountiful rainfall)
81. Sun-Jupiter-Saturn in Sama Saptakam mode (These 25. Ketu (Southern lunar node as shown in Fig. 2) in the
th
three are located in 7 house from each other middle of all the planets
mutually) 26. Mercury appears in Ardra star and ‘Bha’-
82. Mars ahead of Venus Chatushtaya Nakshatrams (4 stars beginning with
83. Saturn ahead of Mars and Venus the star ‘Bha’ranii.e.,Bharani, Krittika, Rohini and
84. Relation between Mars, Jupiter and Venus Mrigasira)
85. Relation of Sun, Mars and Jupiter in Mithuna raasi 27. Movement of Mars in Mrigasira star
(Gemini Constellation) 28. Venus ahead of Jupiter
86. Relation of Sun, Mars and Jupiter in Karkataka raasi 29. Conjunction of three or four planets in the orbital field
(Cancer constellation) of Venus
87. Conjunction of Sun and Saturn 30. Mercury ahead of Venus (Though windy, sometimes
88. Venus sets in Aslesha star and its 5 counterparts windy weather also favours rainfall as good rainfall is
(i.e., Aslesha, Makha, Purva Phalguni, Uttara sometimes accompanied by wind)
Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra) 31. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in the East,
89. Solar entry in Ardra star between sunrise and 12 situated in Punarvasu star
noon is especially bad and points towards coming 32. All planets trace their orbital paths ahead of the Sun
famine. 33. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in the west,
Suvrishti yogaha (astrological conditions favouring situated in Hasta star
copious rainfall) 34. Relation between Venus and Mars situated in Leo
1. All planets trace their orbits at the back of the Sun constellation
2. Mercury and Venus in proximity ahead of Sun with 35. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Aswini star
Venus ahead of Mercury (Rainy) 36. Rise of Venus in Bharani star
3. Mercury in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit 37. Relation of Mars and Venus in Jyeshtha star
4. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus 38. Venus sets in the West
5. Movement of Mars 39. Jupiter sets in the West situated in Shatabhishak
6. Venus sets star
7. Mars in Patanga Maargam (The Sun’s path; because 40. Mars sets in the West situated in Uttarashadha star
in Sanskrit, ‘Patanga’ stands for ‘Sun’ and ‘Maargam’ 41. Jupiter rises in the East in Shatabhishak star
means ‘Path’) 42. Saturn sets in the West in Revathi star
8. Rise of Venus 43. Mercury sets in Revathi star
9. Mercury rises and appears in the East, situated in 44. Conjunction of Mars and Saturn
Pushyami star 45. Movement of Mars in Bharani star
10. Jupiter sets 46. Mercury rises in Revathi star
11. Conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter 47. Mars in Soumya maargam (The path of Mercury;
12. Venus appears in the West situated in Swati star and because in Sanskrit, ‘Maargam’ means ‘Path’ and
its 2 counterparts (The triad consisting of Swati, the word ‘Soumya’ denotes ‘Mercury’ (Budha) as in
Visakha and Anuradha ) Hindu mythology, he is believed to be the son of
13. Rise of Jupiter Moon, who is also known by the name ‘Soma’)
14. Saturn sets 48. Saturn rises in the East
15. Venus in curved orbit and Mercury in linear orbit 49. Mercury sets in the East
16. Sun ahead, followed by Venus and Mercury 50. Mercury sets in the West after the Sun
respectively 51. Venus in Soumya maargam
17. Movement of Mars in Chitra star 52. Venus ahead, followed by Saturn and Mars
18. Venus appears in the East, situated in Makha star respectively
and its 4 counterparts (Makha, Purva Phalguni, 53. Sun ahead, followed by Venus and Mercury
Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra) respectively
19. Movement of Venus 54. Mercury rises in the East
20. Conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter 55. Mercury rises in the West
21. Movement of Saturn 56. Movement of Mars in Purva Phalguni star
22. Movement of Mars in Visakha star
23. Conjunction of Jupiter and Venus
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57. Venus appears in the West, situated in Swati star Group6: Dhanishthaadi Shatka Nakshatrams-
and its 2 counterparts (Swati, Visakha and Dhanishtha, Shatabhishak, Purvabhaadrapada,
Anuradha) Uttarabhaadrapada, Revathi and Aswini
58. Venus ahead of Sun When these astrologically predicted portents are
59. Sun ahead of all the planets amalgamated with contemporary technological prowess
60. Relation of Mercury and Venus in Aslesha star and dexterity, then, this would definitely provide a reliable
61. Movement of Mars inPurvashadha pedestal with immense impetus by unveiling a
62. Movement of Mars in Purvaabhaadra revolutionary and ground-breaking innovation in the
63. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Shatabhishak arena of rainfall prediction.
star Kaarti or Kartari
64. Mercury in curved orbit and Mars in linear orbit The moon stays conjoined with one nakshatram for
65. Venus in curved orbit and Mercury in linear orbit about one day and thus his stay in all the 27
66. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in nakshatrams, one per each day, constitutes the entire
Uttaraabhaadra star lunar month. This particular star in which the moon stays
67. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Sravana star for one day is called ‘Nitya (Daily) Nakshatram’ (meaning
68. Transit of Venus through stars situated in the ‘The daily star’, denoting the star with which the moon is
astrological celestial path of ‘Soumya maargam’ conjoined on that particular day of the lunar month).
69. Venus situated in Swati star which is on the Likewise, the Sun also stays in one nakshatram for a
astrological celestial path of ‘Soumya maargam’ period of about 13-14 days. The nakshatram with which
70. Mercury rises in Aswini star the Sun is conjoined during a month is called a ‘Maha
71. Mercury sets in Bharani star (Mega) Nakshatram’ (meaning ‘Mega Star’). This period
72. Mercury rises in Bharani star of Solar-Star conjunction during a given lunar month is
73. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Rohini star known as a ‘Kaarti’ in Telugu Panchangam (including the
74. Mercury sets in Mrigasira star Panchangam considered for the present study).
75. Mercury sets in Uttara Phalguni star Hence, a month may consist of 1 or 2 kaarti periods
76. Mercury rises in Purva Phalguni star which are usually named after the Nakshatram (Star) the
77. Mercury rises in Anuradha star Sun is conjoined with, at that particular time. These Kaarti
78. Mercury sets in Purvashadha star periods are said to be influential on weather phenomena,
79. Mercury rises in Mula star particularly rainfall. Depending upon the time of the year
80. Mercury sets in Sravana star and the star of solar conjunction, different Kaarti periods
81. Mercury rises in Revathi star have different results for rainfall in a given year and the
82. If the entry of Sun in Ardra star happens after sunset same Kaarti period may witness different types of rainfall
and before the next Sun rise, it is good for rainfall in different years depending upon the various astrological
and weather. factors prevalent at that time. There are about 18 Kaarti
83. Sun entering Aardra star during late evening or night periods in a given year. They are shown in Table 10.
indicates widespread and plentiful rainfall leading to These are however, much generalized predictions
good crops and easy availability of food grains. (The and the actual prediction for each Kaarti period in the
word Aardra in Sanskrit means ‘wet or dampened Panchangam differs for each year.
one’. Hence this name aptly suits the fore stated General Monthly Summary of Rainfall and Climate As
phenomenon). Envisaged In the Panchangam
Very recently, on 3rd of January, 2012, the conjunction of (a) Chaitram: Chances of some rainfall with normal to
Jupiter and Moon took place (observed from the Earth) moderate flash rains in some places. Weather will be
after sunset. This was clearly visible to the naked eye in windy occasionally. Overall, it will be cool and
the East sky on the day. This was expected to bring about pleasant during this season.
changes in Temperature. (b) Vaisaakham: Symptoms conducive for good rainfall
Note: Grouping of Stars – throughout the month. During the bright fortnight, there
Group 1: ‘Bha’ Chatushtaya Nakshatrams - 4 stars may be 1-2 normal to moderate flash rains
beginning with the star ‘Bha’ranii.e.,Bharani, Krittika, accompanied by wind. Heat wave intensifies towards
Rohini and Mrigasira. the end of this month around Amavasya time.
Group 2: Ardraadi Chatushtaya Nakshatrams- Ardra, (c) Jyeshtham: More Rains are expected during the dark
Punarvasu, Pushya and Aslesha fortnight than during the bright fortnight. First
Group 3: Maghaadi Panchaka Nakshatrams- Makha, monsoonal rains begin in this month. The Godavari
Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra and other rivers in the state flow with abundant waters.
Group 4: Swatee traya Nakshatrams- Swati, Visakha and (d) Aashaadham: Rainfall is expected to be scanty during
Anuradha the bright fortnight with normal rainfall in some places.
Group 5: Jyeshthaadi Panchaka Nakshatrams- Jyeshtha, Sky remains cloudy during the dark fortnight with 1-2
Mula, Purvashadha, Uttarashadha and Sravana instances of good rainfall.
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Table 11. Panchangam Predictions compared with the Modern Data
Prediction( Prediction Recorded Max. Rain Degree of Degree of
Year Yearly Mean(mm)
Aadhakam) (mm) on a given day (mm) Agreement (%) Agreement (%)
1992-93 1 16 53 30.2 12.23 76.4
1993-94 3 48 108.4 44.3 14.73 30.7
1994-95 3 48 70.6 68 12.72 26.5
1995-96 1 16 150.8 10.6 15 93.8
1996-97 3 48 185.6 26 18.11 37.7
1997-98 2 32 103.1 31 13.57 42.4
1998-99 1 16 103.8 15.4 13.64 85.3
1999-
4 64 43.6 68.1 9.32 14.6
2000
2000-01 3 48 65.9 72.8 8.14 17
2001-02 3 48 157.4 30.5 12.14 25.3
2002-03 1 16 101.8 15.7 11.85 74.1
(e) Sraavanam: Mostly, this month experiences Comparison with maximum rainfall and annual rainfall
symptoms of rainfall scarcity. There may be some We may recall here that the quantity of rainfall in
rains during the bright fortnight. Rains are awaited Panchangam is given in terms of Aadhakam units and
during the dark fortnight. also that the modern value of Aadhakam was established
(f) Bhaadrapadam: Sky remains cloudy with normal to Fig. 3. Wind directions on a 16-point compass, each
moderate rainfall during this month. separated by an angle of 22.5
0
(g) Aaswayujam: No considerable rainfall during this

month till Purnima (Full Moon) time. At around
Purnima, heavy rains occur due to the formation of
depression in the sea. During Amavasya (New Moon)
time, there will be rains accompanied by wind in some
regions, disturbing agriculture.
(h) Kaarthikam: Dominant symptoms of good rainfall are
perceived during this month. Rainfall ranging from
meager dew precipitation to normal showers can be
expected during the bright fortnight. Formation of
depression (low pressure area) in the sea during
Purnima and Amavasya periods, resulting in heavy
rains.
(i) Maargaseersham: Scarce rainfall during the month.
Sky remains cloudy and moist blow during this month.
There are chances of 2-3 episodes of heavy rainfall Fig. 4.Comparison of Panchangam rainfall prediction with
and these rains are unfavourable for agriculture. recorded maximum rainfall on a given day of the year
(j) Pousham: Probability of Scanty rainfall in this
particular month. Moderate rainfall is likely to occur
during the bright fortnight period. The dark fortnight
period experiences windy, moist and snowy weather.
(k) Maagham: No considerable rainfall in this month.
There are remote chances of 2-3 instances of rainfall,
which is usually uncharacteristic of this season.
(l) Phaalgunam: Occasional rains in the manyam (a
forest region in Northern Andhra Pradesh) region
resulting in filling up of ponds, lakes and other water
bodies situated there. Other than this, there will be
clear, dry and pleasant spring-time weather
conditions prevalent elsewhere, conducive for and
leading to the advent of summer later. to be 1.6 cm or 16 mm (approx.). The rainfall prediction in
Results and discussions this Panchangam may be treated as the maximum
Comparison with recorded data amount of rainfall on any single given day of that
To correlate the Panchangam prediction to the actual particular year in deliberation, or even the more generic
recorded values, the surface meteorological data average rainfall during the year. All these have been
provided by the National Data Centre, India incorporated in Table 11 and comparison of Panchangam
Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune was used. prediction with recorded maximum rain on a given day of
2504
the year and yearly mean are graphically represented in be applied to any or all of the regions of Andhra Pradesh
Fig. 3 and Fig.4 respectively. or even by considering Andhra Pradesh state as a whole.
Note: Adequate meteorological daily surface data for Evaluation employing bi-monsoonal precipitation
Tirupati region is not available for the year 2003-2004 An attempt has been made to examine the extent of
from the archives of IMD agreement of the almanac predictions with the average
Table 12. Panchangam predictions compared with Monsoonal Averages
Degree of
Panchangam Average South West
Agreement Average North East
Year Rainfall Prediction Monsoonal Degree of Agreement (%)
(%) Monsoonal Rainfall (mm)
(mm) Rainfall (mm)
1992-93 16 8.6 53.8 15.1 94.4
1993-94 48 9.8 20.4 19.8 41.3
1994-95 48 11.0 23.0 15.3 32.0
1995-96 16 12.5 78.1 11.8 73.8
1996-97 48 15.1 31.5 23.0 47.9
1997-98 32 9.3 29.0 16.8 52.5
1998-99 16 9.2 57.5 21.7 73.7
1999-2000 64 6.2 9.7 14.4 22.5
2000-01 48 6.4 13.3 12.5 26.0
2001-02 48 7.8 16.3 18.6 38.8
2002-03 16 8.7 54.4 14.1 88.1
rainfall measured during the traditional Varsha Rutu

Fig. 5.Comparison of Panchangam rainfall prediction
(Rainy Season), which temporally corresponds to the
with recorded yearly mean rainfall
modern South West monsoon period (June-September)
and also with North East monsoon period (October-
December). This is showcased in Table 12. The data has
been compared with the Panchangam prediction as it is
represented graphically in Fig. 5.
Tirupati receives heavy rainfall and often, majority of
its rainfall during North East monsoon time accompanied
by the formation of depressions in Bay of Bengal that
result in incessant rains for days together. The farming
season during the South West monsoons is known by the
name ‘Khareef’ and during North East monsoons; this is
called ‘Rabi’ in Southern India. Obviously, the highest
rainfall during a year occurs during either of the two
monsoons. But, there are some instances when isolated
Fig. 6. Comparison of Panchangam rainfall prediction with high rainfall episodes are witnessed during Summer
recorded average south-west rainfall, average north-east (Mostly in May and seldom in April) due to the convective
rainfall and average of total monsoon rainfall data. torrential rains (involving Cumulonimbus clouds). In
addition, there are some scattered rains observed during
the Maagha month (February), called “Maaghapaali”
rains, which have been effectively predicted in the
Panchangam. However, these inconsistent and discrete
cases specified above, have been included in general
overall rainfall analysis in Table 11 above and hence, not
been given much emphasis in further analysis and
calculations.
Assessment of rainfall based on planetary reign in
Panchangam
The Panchangam also predicts the nature of rainfall
in a year based on its quantity depending upon the
planetary reign of that particular year. Comparison of this
astrological forecast with the total recorded rainfall for a
Further, it has to be borne in mind that this Panchangam given year is shown in Table 13. The years ruled by
rainfall prediction is valid over the entire Andhra Pradesh Saturn experienced comparatively scanty rainfall (1992-
region and is not confined to one particular place. It can 1993, 1995-1996, 1998-1999 and 2002-2003). The reign
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Table 13. Comparison of the predicted effect of planetary rulership on annual rainfall, with recorded data
Year King Predicted Nature of Rainfall Recorded Total Annual Rainfall (mm)
1992-93 Saturn Scanty (with strong winds) 758.6
1993-94 Mercury Very Good (Windy) 1413.8
1994-95 Moon Heavy 1170.1
1995-96 Saturn Scanty (strong winds) 899.0
1996-97 Mercury Very Good (Windy) 1901.4
1997-98 Mars Destructive with damage to crops 1275.8
1998-99 Saturn Scanty (strong winds ) 1132.9
1999-2000 Jupiter Low to Satisfactory 727.2
2000-01 Mercury Good (Windy) 760.9
2001-02 Moon Heavy 1226.4
2002-03 Saturn Scanty (strong winds) 912.2
of Mercury yielded very good rainfall during 1993- In addition to this, the mean rainfall during the two
1994 and 1996-1997. The Moon’s royal sway over the monsoons was also associated with the Almanac
years 1994-1995 and 2001-2002 resulted in heavy rainfall predictions. The degree of association with mean South-
during these two years. Jupiter’s tenure during 1999-2000 West monsoonal rainfall was established as between
witnessed considerably low rainfall. All the above 9.7% and 78.1% (Table 12). The average association
observations were in significant correlation to the was determined to be 35.2%. In case of North East
predictions made in the Panchangam, positioning the monsoon, this association spanned from 22.5% to 94.4%
degree of correlation at an astounding 81.8%. (Table 12) and whose mean was computed to be 53.72%.
But, the term of Mars in 1997-1998 was expected to When it comes to the case of considering the normal of
bring low rainfall with extensive damage to agriculture. the total monsoonal precipitation, the extent of
But, the actual rainfall (1275.8 mm) was prominently correspondence to the traditional Panchangam estimates
above the normal range during this year. Likewise, the vary from 16.1% to 88.1% and the average of the extent
Kingship of Mercury during 2000-2001 recorded a of this relation stood at 45.8% (Table 14).
substantially low rainfall (760.9 mm.), that is quite
Table 14.Total monsoonal average compared with Panchangam prediction
Total Monsoon Rainfall Average of total Predicted Degree of Agreement
Year
(mm) Monsoon Rainfall (mm) Rainfall in Panchangam (mm) (%)
1992-93 661.0 11.4 16 71.3
1993-94 1283.7 14.6 48 30.4
1994-95 1012 13.0 48 27.1
1995-96 668.2 12.2 16 76.3
1996-97 1749 18.6 48 38.8
1997-98 1177.1 13.4 32 42.0
1998-99 1125.5 14.1 16 88.1
1999-2000 637.2 10.3 64 16.1
2000-01 710.9 9.0 48 18.8
2001-02 1086.2 13.0 48 27.1
2002-03 769.6 10.8 16 67.5
contradictory to the respective prediction. The extent of Evaluation based on predicted cloud type and nature of
disagreement was only 18.2%. resultant rainfall
Appraisal with aggregate monsoonal showers As per the modern meteorology, Cirrus (High
Further, the average of the total rainfall documented Altitude) clouds are not expected to give any rainfall or
during the two monsoons (South West & North East) has sometimes yield low rainfall based on the moisture
also been correlated with the rainfall predicted by the content in the atmosphere and the descent of the cirrus
Panchangam (Table 14). ice crystals on to middle and low altitude clouds, which
From the above statistics, we can notice that the aptly suits Pushkara clouds. During the period of study,
degree of agreement of the maximum rainfall on any this cloud was predicted to be dominant during the
given day of the year ranged from 10.6% to 72.8% (Table Panchangam year 1992-1993 and the total annual rainfall
11). The average extent of coincidence was 37.51%. in Tirupati during this year was also low (758.6 mm) (see
Similarly, the annual mean rainfall was also compared to Table 15). Also, the total rainfall during the two monsoons
the Panchangam prediction and the range of agreement in 1992-93 (661.0 mm) was the lowest during the period
extended from 14.6% to 93.8%, the average of which was of study (see Table 14). The prediction and actual rainfall
calculated to be 47.62% (Table 11). for 1999-2000 also were in great agreement with each
other (727.2 mm) (Table 15).
2506
Table 15. Cloud type predictions compared with real-time cloud observations
Dominant Cloud type Type of Rainfall Total Rainfall
Year Dominant Cloud Type Observed
Predicted Predicted (mm)
Cirrus in the form of hooks,
1992-93 Pushkaram Less Rain 758.6
progressively invading the Sky
Stratocumulus & Cumulus, other
Uniform Rain-Very
1993-94 Samvartakam than that formed from spreading of 1413.8
windy
Cumulus
Altocumulus in 2 or more layers;
1994-95 Avartakam Less Rain 1170.1
opaque at places
Stratocumulus not formed by
1995-96 Tamo Scattered Rain 899.0
spreading Cumulus
Windy & Less
1996-97 Vaayu Semi-transparent Altocumulus 1901.4
Rain
Stratocumulus formed by spreading
1997-98 Varunam Heavy Rainfall 1275.8
Cumulus
Altocumulus, principally semi-
1998-99 Neelam Heavy Rainfall 1132.9
transparent
1999-2000 Kaalam Low Rainfall Dense Cirrus; like Cumuliform tufts 727.2
Cumuliform clouds formed by their
2000-01 Dronam Incessant rainfall 760.9
spreading
Windy & Uniform Stratocumulus not formed by
2001-02 Samvartakam 1226.4
Rainfall spreading out of Cumulus
Predominantly translucent
2002-03 Avartakam Less Rain 912.2
Altocumulus
Table 16.Observed direction of cloud origin compared with Panchangam prediction
Actual Direction of Cloud Dominant Wind Direction(s) during
Direction of Cloud Generation
Year Observed (using 8 points of the Year (using 16 points of
Predicted in Panchangam
compass) compass)
1992-93 North – East No definite direction* SSW, SW, NE, NNE
1993-94 North North – East SSW,SW, NE, NNE
1994-95 North No definite direction SW, SSW, NE, NNE
1995-96 West South – West NE
1996-97 North – West No definite direction SW, NE
1997-98 South – West North – East NE, SW, SSW, W
1998-99 South – East No definite direction SSW, NE
1999-2000 South No definite direction SW, ENE, NE, W
2000-01 East No definite direction SW, SSW, NE, ENE, W
2001-02 North – East No definite direction SW, NE
2002-03 North South W, SW, SSW, NE, ENE
*This means the cloud is at the center of the sky without orientation towards any direction or the particular cloud is spread over
multiple directions or it is invading and pervading the entire sky. NE=North-East; SW=South-West; SSW=South-South-West;
NNE=North–North-East; W=West; ENE=East–North-East. In Sanskrit, the East direction is called Purva, Prak or Prachi; West is
called Paschimam or Prateechi; North is known as Uttaram; South is known by the name Dakshinam; North-East is called
Ishanyam; South-West is termed Nairuti; North-West is called Vaayavyam and South-East has been given the nomenclature
Aagneyam. The rulers of the eight directions are: a). East: Lord Indra (King of the Gods. Hence, East is considered to be the King
or the most auspicious of all the directions as the Sun also rises in the East) b). West: Lord Varuna (The Rain-God. Clouds
originating in the West consistently yield copious rainfall) c). North: Lord Kubera (Lord of Wealth. As per the science of Vaastu -
the art of propitious construction, all the treasures like money valuables, cash boxes et cetera are to be placed at the North) d).
South: Lord Yama (Lord of Death. The South wind is generally thought to be non-beneficial and is of ‘howling’ nature.
Moreover,southern clouds normally result in miserly rainfall). e). North-East: Lord Ishaana (a form of Lord Rudra or Lord Siva,
after whom this direction is named ‘Ishaanya’). f). South-West: Lord Niruti (a Raakshasa or a demon, after whom this direction is
named ‘Nairuti’) g). North-West: Lord Vaayu (The Wind-God, after whom the direction is named ‘Vaayavyam’). h). South-East:
Lord Agni (The Fire-God, after whom this direction is named ‘Aagneyam’). All of the above mentioned rulers of the eight directions
are known as 'Ashta Dik Paalakas'. In Sanskrit, Ashta means 'Eight'; Dik means 'Direction' and Paalaka means 'Ruler'.
Altocumulus clouds visible on a warm and humid other cloud forms, into the form of Cumulus Congestus
summer morning portend rain or thunderstorm by late and occasionally into the most dreadful, impactful and
afternoon. Stratocumulus clouds generally appear as the power-packed variant, Cumulonimbus, the towering cloud
remains of a much larger cumulus cloud. Normal Rain or clusters often extending into the lower stratosphere. The
Snow may fall from Stratocumulus. Cumulus clouds outcome would be a showery precipitation, usually a
develop vertically into the atmosphere as opposed to thunderstorm, accompanied by gale winds.
2507
Further, it can be easily concluded that the prediction of region to which the wind blows, i.e., opposite to the wind
cloud type and rainfall in the Panchangam accords well direction (The direction from which the wind originates).
with the actual cloud types observed, based on the nature 16-point compass format is used to measure wind speed
of rainfall expected from them. However, there are which is shown in Fig. 6. Based on this modern scientific
discrepancies between the actual quantity of rainfall observation, we shall try to interpret the predictions of
recorded and the prediction in some cases (Table 15). Panchangam pertaining to the direction of cloud origin.
Hence, among the 11 years considered, 7 years It can be observed that the modern observations
witnessed the coincidence of the recorded rainfall with hardly coincide with the Panchangam predictions, with 7
the Panchangam predictions to some extent or the other, out of 11 modern observations unable to assign any
placing the scope of their association at a healthy rate of particular direction to the observed dominant cloud type
about 63.6%. (Table 16). During the years 1992-93, 1996-97, 1997-98,
Directions of cloud origin in almanac weighed with actual 2000-2001 and 2001-2002 the prediction for cloud
phenomenon direction was in good terms with the observed wind
Panchangam clearly specifies the direction of origin directions (mutually opposite directions). The years 1993-
of the cloud type that is dominant during a year. These 94, 1994-95, 1999-2000 and 2002-2003 showed some
predictions can be matched with the contemporary approximate resemblance (for instance, in 1994-95,
meteorological observations (Table16). when the predicted cloud direction was North, the
Wind Direction to the Rescue: Here, it is quite noteworthy observed prevalent wind direction was South-West and
that even during the instances where the modern South – South-West, where the anticipated wind direction
observations were unable to ascertain a specific direction was from South). The years 1995-96 and 1998-1999
of clouds; Panchangam was able to predict it well in exhibited no correlation at all in this regard (Table 16).
advance. Since we have no direct source in the above Hence, the overall percentage of perfect correlation was
data in Table 16 to verify these propositions, we need to 45.5%. The rate of proximate association was calculated
do so circuitously by considering the direction of to be 36.4% and the extent of total non-correlation was
prevalent wind during the year. Air always travels from only a trivial 18.1%. From these, it can be substantively
regions of high pressure to regions of low pressure. This asserted that the total magnitude of this degree of
pressure gradient facilitates the flow (blowing) of air agreement (to some extent or the other) was placed at
which is called ‘Wind’. From the surface level to the 81.9% with a mere disagreement of 18.1%.This sound
tropospheric altitudes, the wind flow occurs horizontally. relationship provides us with an adequate proof of the fact
For instance, the wind originating from the north would that our great ancestors were well aware of the
travel towards the south and vice versa. (On the other mechanisms of wind circulation and cloud formation.
hand, the winds occurring at the higher reaches of Measured wind velocity linked to Panchangam
atmosphere are vertical winds). The gradient is a predictions
consequence of Sun’s heat resulting in temperature In addition, the Panchangam repeatedly and
variations. Air at high temperature possesses high categorically asserts that the reign of Mercury induces a
pressure owing to thermal agitation of air molecules. windy weather during a given year though it witnesses
Therefore, air flow occurs till the equilibrium of good amount of rainfall. Saturn’s rule causes scanty
temperature and pressure is achieved. Furthermore, rainfall with stormy winds. The Kingship of Mars probably
winds converge in a low pressure zone, moving in an ends up with destruction of crops due to gale winds, hail
anti-clockwise direction. This is called a storms and other pervasive elements.
Table 17.Wind category based on
‘cyclonic circulation’. Going by the contemporary
wind velocity
On the other hand, in a high pressure Wind velocity
meteorology, wind velocities can be
zone, winds diverge out, moving in a Category categorized as shown in Table 17,
range (kmph)
clockwise direction. This is known as an 1 Calm (http://www.windfinder.com/wind/windsp
th
‘Anti-cyclonic circulation’. Hence, air 1 – 5 Light Air eed.htm; accessed on 15 of January,
begins to settle down in low pressure 6 – 11 Light Breeze 2012).
areas, where the air parcels or packets 12 – 19 Gentle Breeze The range of maximum wind
come under the influence of boundary 20 – 28 Moderate Breeze velocity during the period of study varied
layer and other local endemic factors, 29 – 38 Fresh Breeze from 28 km/h to 72 km/h. So, from the
where they begin to rise in atmosphere 39 – 49 Strong Breeze classification provided above, we can
thereby accumulating more and more High Wind, Near easily infer that this range corresponds
50 – 61
water vapour. Consequently, they reach Gale to moderate breezes, fresh breezes,
their saturation point and form clouds. 62 – 74 Gale Wind strong breezes, high winds nearer to
From all these, one can arrive at a 75 – 88 Severe Gale gale speed and finally, gale winds.
general conclusion that clouds are 89 – 102 Stormy Wind Except during 1993-1994 (72 km/h) and
formed in areas of low pressure at a 103 –117 Violent Storm
118 - 133 Hurricane

2508
Table 18. Panchangam wind speed predictions matched with on-site measurements
Panchangam Measured Maximum Measured Annual
Planetary No. of Days with Wind
Year Prediction with Wind Velocity on any Average Wind Velocity
Reign Velocity >=28kmph
respect to Wind given day (kmph) (kmph)
1992-93 Saturn Strong Winds 38 15 14
1993-94 Mercury Very Windy Weather 72 14.5 6
Usually calm with
1994-95 Moon 38 14 2
heavy rainfall
1995-96 Saturn Strong Winds 28 13.1 2
1996-97 Mercury Windy Weather 34 13.1 10
1997-98 Mars Destructive to Crops 46 15.5 44
1998-99 Saturn Strong Wind 34 14.2 10
Low to Satisfactory
1999-2000 Jupiter Rainfall with light or 34 14.7 18
no breezes
2000-01 Mercury Windy Weather 36 14.1 17
Heavy Rainfall with
2001-02 Moon 34 13.9 16
composed weather
2002-03 Saturn Strong Wind 38 15.2 29
1995-1996 (28 km/h), all the other years had their shorter than the lunar month. This calls for a deduction of
maximum wind speeds spanning from 34 km/h to 46 km/h a lunar month from the calendar. This eliminated month is
(Table 18). These winds can be very convincingly tagged known as ‘Ksheenamaasam or Kshayamaasam’.
as extending from fresh breezes to strong breezes and Panchangam predictions maintained a vigorous rate
when these are prevalent on a given day, it can be of positive association with the authentic observations.
declared that the weather is ‘Windy’. By considering the This extended from 10.6% to 72.8% in case of maximum
annual average wind speed, it can be concluded that
rainfall recorded on any given day of a particular year and
gentle breezes were dominant during the years under
consideration (Table 18). Except during the four years from 14.6% to 93.8% pertaining to the total mean annual
1993-94, 1995-96, 1999-2000 and 2001-2002, all the rainfall during the period of study. During the period of
other seven years complied with the predictions of the South-West monsoon, this relationship fluctuated
Panchangam to a pronounced level. The height of between 9.7% and 78.1%. During North-East monsoon
concurrence was established at around 63.6%, while the time, this vacillated from 22.5% to 94.4%. The observed
degree of disagreement was placed at about 36.4%. total monsoonal mean rainfall corresponded to the
From all these comparative observations, it can be
Panchangam predictions to an extent stretching from
vividly stated that an Apposite blend of ancient
knowledge and modern technical prowess would 16.1% to 88.1%.The prediction of rainfall based on the
undoubtedly work wonders for the field of Science and in planetary crown of a given year coincided with the actual
this context, would unquestionably augur marvels in the total annual rainfall to an extent of 81.8%. When it comes
arena of weather forecasting and monsoon prediction, in to the issue of comparison of predicted dominant cloud
particular. type during a year and the resultant rainfall, with the
Conclusion recorded measurements, the scope of this association
Though most of the Predictions in Panchangam are
qualitative and usually generalized over a given area, say was found to be 63.6%. Further, the direction of cloud
a state, an in-depth study and analysis of the propositions origin as foreseen in the Panchangam was discovered to
enshrined in the almanac, in conjunction with the modern be likened to the real-time observations at a rate of
sophisticated meteorological science will result in the 81.9%. When the predicted nature of wind velocity was
evolution of a more accurate, reliable and accountable under deliberation, the height of concord with the on-site
weather forecasting in the near future. Our ancient observations during the period of study was established
Indians did not have the luxury of sophisticated and
to be 63.6%. Hence, to summarize at a bird’s eye view,
automated weather mapping devices. Yet, they were able
to develop astonishingly erudite and pertinent theories the degree of association between predictions and
and principles often without even looking at the sky, recorded data was of the order ranging from a meager
which significantly coincided with the modern findings of 9.7% to a staggering 94.4% in case of individual
late. The calendar system and time scales in the observations. On the whole, the general trend of
Panchangam are immaculate. A year with an Panchangam predictions versus actual observations
Adhikamaasam occurs around 7 times in 19 years. emerged out to be 56.75% (57% (approx.)).
Sometimes, due to the varying speeds of Earth’s rotation
around the Sun, it so happens that a solar month may be
2509
Besides, the numerical weather prediction (NWP) practices in Ilocos Norte Province, Philippines. Forest
models like T80, T170, MM5 and Eta, run at the National Ecol. Manage. 257, 2044-2053.
Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting 6. Kanani PR and Pastakia Astad (1999) Everything is
(NCMRWF) failed to predict nearly one third of the cases written in the sky! : Participatory meteorological
of high rainfall spells at most of the locations situated assessment and prediction based on traditional beliefs
north of 200 N or the Eastern peninsula or in the Bay of and indicators in Saurashtra. J. Asian Int. Bioethics. 9,
Bengal. It was also noted that no particular NWP model 170.
has performed satisfactorily in predicting high amount of 7. Khaladkar RM, Narkhedkar SG & Mahajan PN (2007)
rainfall in different parts of India at the same time Performance of NCMRWF models in predicting high
(Khaladkar et al, 2007). On the consummate, during the rainfall spells during SW monsoon season– A study for
study period, the mean success rate of Panchangam some cases in July 2004, Indian Institute of Tropical
predictions set against the modern observations was put Meteorology (IITM), Pune, Research Report No. RR –
at 57 %( approx.). When viewed from this germane 116.
perspective, Panchangam can be conferred with the 8. Mishra SK, Dubey VK and Pandey RC (2002) Rain
status of a full-fledged ‘Scientific Weather Prediction forecasting in Indian almanacs (Panchangs): A case
Model’. With rapid climatic changes and global warming, for making Krishi-Panchang. Asian Agri-Hist. 6(1), 29-
drastic vagaries of the weather phenomena have been a 42.
commonplace occurrence during the recent decades. 9. Ravi Shankar K, Pochaiah Maraty, Murthy VRK and
This is the reason why many weather prediction models Ramakrishna YS (2008) Indigenous rain forecasting in
have recurrently failed to function as anticipated. This Andhra Pradesh, Central Research Institute for Dry
predicament applies to all the traditional scientific texts land Agriculture, Hyderabad. pp: 1-67.
and treatises, including the Panchangam. With the 10. Richard Thompson (1997), Planetary diameters in the
climatic trends being rendered capricious day by day, the Surya-Siddhanta. J. Scientific Exploration. 11(2), 193-
effectiveness and efficacy of all the traditional, indigenous 200.
as well as the present-day scientific methods is to be 11. Roncoli C, Ingram K, Kirshen P and Jost C (2001)
once again inspected and re-evaluated. Burkina Faso A: Integrating indigenous and scientific
Given this existing milieu, there is an impending rainfall forecasting. World Bank Indigenous
necessity to amalgamate this traditional knowledge gifted Knowledge Series No. 39.
to us as an irreplaceable heritage by our forefathers, with 12. Sandeep Acharya (2011) Prediction of rainfall
the latest cutting-edge decorous technological variation through flowering phenology of night-
innovations, in order to accomplish an apropos, flowering jasmine (Nyctanthes arbor-tristis L.;
comprehensive as well as a seemly and fittingly fulfilling Verbenaceae) in Tripura. Indian J. Traditional
meteorological monitoring and forecasting mechanism in Knowledge.10 (1), 96-101.
the visible imminent future. 13. Satguru Sivaya Subramuniyaswami (1997) Vedic
Acknowledgement Calendar – The Kadavul Hindu Panchangam, The
Our heartfelt thankfulness to National Data Centre, Saivite Series, Himalayan Academy, Kapaa, Hawaii.
India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune for the 14. Sivaprakasam S and Kanakasabai V (2009)
supply of the requested data essential for carrying out this Traditional almanac predicted rainfall – A case study.
study. We express our profound gratefulness and IndianJ. Traditional Knowledge. 8 (4), 621-625.
appreciation to Ms. Haripriya Chinthapally, USA for her 15. Tripathi RPM (1969) Indigenous methods of rainfall
invaluable support and cooperation in statistical data prediction, M.Sc (Ag) Thesis, Department of Extension
programming and article formatting. Education, BHU, Varanasi.
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Meteorological predictions preserved in the Panchangam versus real-time

Article in Indian Journal of Science and Technology · April 2012

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Vanadeep K1*, Sada Siva Murty R2 and Krishnaiah M1

Keywords:Panchangam, Nakshatram, Conjunction, Planetary reign, Meteorological prediction.

Research article “Panchangam vs real-time observation” Vanadeep et al.

(g) Aaswayujam: No considerable rainfall during this

rainfall measured during the traditional Varsha Rutu

Research article “Panchangam vs real-time observation” Vanadeep et al.

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