THE PRESENT AND FUTURE OF THE

ASHEVILLE REGIONAL ECONOMY

Dr. Mike Walden

Reynolds
Distinguished
Professor

North Carolina
State
University

October 2018

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 THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

DEVASTATING RECESSION

2ND LONGEST RECOVERY

RECOVERY HAS ACCELERATED

NEXT RECESSION – 2020 (??)

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NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMY

RECENT STRONG GROWTH

LED BY IN-MIGRATION

TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMY

METRO VERSUS RURAL GROWTH

SLOW GROWTH IN MID-PAY JOBS

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ions) Perc

NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION PROJECTIONS

NUMBER (MILLIONS) % OF TOTAL

2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050

Total 9.6 11.6 13.4 100.0 100.0 100.0

Population
Under 18 2.3 2.4 2.6 23.9 20.5 19.5

18-24 1.0 1.1 1.2 9.9 9.4 9.0

25-44 2.6 3.0 3.2 26.9 26.1 24.1

45-64 2.5 2.8 3.5 26.3 24.1 26.1

65&+ 1.2 2.3 2.9 13.0 19.9 21.3

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COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH 2010-2050

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FOUR SECTORS TO WATCH FOR FUTURE GROWTH

TECHNOLOGY

TOURISM

AGRIBUSINESS

RETIREMENT

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 THE REGIONAL ASHEVILLE ECONOMY IS
OUT-PERFORMING BOTH THE US AND NC

2009-2018
Asheville NC US

Jobs 17.8% 16.7% 14.1%

Hourly 25.6% 21.5% 22.0%

earnings

GDP (09-17) 26.3% 12.6% 16.8%

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 RECENT KEY DRIVERS IN THE
ASHEVILLE REGIONAL ECONOMY
from 2009-2017

Manufacturing share increased from 18% to 23%, while declined

for the state

Education/Health Care sector grew 3 times faster than in the state

Financial sector grew twice as fast as in the state

Retail sector grew 1.2 times faster than in the state

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GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING IS DUE TO
MORE THAN BREWERIES

INCREASE IN PRODUCTION VALUE

(2008-2016, SUBTACTING GENERAL INFLATION)

BREWERIES: 1400%
MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS: 530%
MOTORS/GENERATORS: 310%
AIRCRAFT ENGINES/PARTS: 150%
PRINTING: 88%
RELAY/INDUSTRIAL CONTROLS: 58%
COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT: 47%
PLASTICS PACKAGING: 40%

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OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE ASHEVILLE
REGIONAL ECONOMY (I)

TOURISM WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ANCHOR

ENHANCED TOURIST OPPORTUNITES RELATED TO

FOREIGN TRAVELERS

WITH 65+ AGE GROUP RAPIDLY INCREASING,

RETIREMENT LIVING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A KEY
FACTOR IN THE ASHEVILLE ECONOMY

ASSOCIATED SECTORS – FINANCE, HEALTH CARE – WILL

ALSO EXPAND

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OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE ASHEVILLE
REGIONAL ECONOMY (II)

DON’T DISCOUNT OTHER SECTORS LIKE

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

SMALL SHARE OF ASHEVILLE ECONOMY (2% OF GDP),

BUT IS FOOTLOOSE

ASHEVILLE COULD USE ITS QUALITY OF LIFE AND

RECREATIONAL ASSETS TO ATTRACT TECH, AS
LONG AS TRAINING OPPORTUNITIES ARE
AVAILABLE

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STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES
SLOW PRODUCTIVITY

AGING POPULATION/SLOW LABOR

FORCE GROWTH

“INVISIBLE” UNEMPLOYMENT

HOLLOWING-OUT OF LABOR MARKET

URBAN/RURAL DIVIDE

TECHNOLOGY AND UNEMPLOYMENT

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 HOPEFULLY I’VE GIVEN YOU SOME DIRECT
INFORMATION, UNLIKE OTHER ECONOMISTS

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QUESTIONS? BUT QUIETLY!

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