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Argus LNG Daily

Daily LNG prices, news and analysis

Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Market Commentary prICES

Asia-Pacific: March prices stable as February gains Argus Asia-Pacific des spot LNG $/mn Btu
Delivery Bid Offer Midpoint ±
Spot LNG prices for deliveries to northeast Asia in March
were little changed today, although second-half February Northeast Asia (ANEA™) 2H Feb 11.64 12.24 11.940 +0.210
1H Mar 10.32 10.89 10.605 -0.090
pushed higher on the back of a recent tender. 2H Mar 9.78 10.41 10.095 +0.005
Prices for second-half February had been expected to 1H Apr 8.42 9.07 8.745 -0.140
weaken as buyers move their requirements to March on China 2H Feb 11.64 12.24 11.940 +0.095
1H Mar 10.34 10.94 10.640 -0.105
expectations of higher supply and lower prices. 2H Mar 9.78 10.41 10.095 -0.050
But a cold spell that has caused temperatures across 1H Apr 8.45 9.14 8.795 -0.105
northeast Asia to fall below zero has resulted in urgent India 2H Feb 10.02 10.62 10.320 nc
1H Mar 9.44 10.10 9.770 +0.110
demand for prompt deliveries, with a few northeast Asian
2H Mar 9.00 9.60 9.300 +0.150
utilities still seeking February cargoes. A cargo recently of- 1H Apr 7.88 8.92 8.400 +0.020
fered by the 9mn t/yr Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) plant
Argus US Gulf Coast (USGC) fob LNG $/mn Btu
for 5-6 February loading may have been the last available
Price ±
spot cargo for February. And competition for supply may
Feb 8.75 -0.25
have been one of the reasons behind a higher-than-expected
Mar 6.85 -0.45
transaction price for a cargo scheduled to be delivered in Apr 5.90 +0.10
the second half of February. May 5.55 nc
The APLNG cargo changed hands at around $11.95/mn Jun 5.20 nc
Btu, while market values for second-half February were Jul 5.25 -0.05
some 10-15¢/mn Btu lower. Benchmark price snapshot $/mn Btu
A short-lived suspension to loadings at the 22.6mn t/yr Market Delivery Price
Bontang LNG plant in Indonesia last week has raised con-
NBP Feb 7.10
cerns among term offtakers over cargo delays, and may have
Zeebrugge Feb 6.75
contributed to the higher APLNG transaction price. Bon- Peg Nord Feb 6.64
tang’s term offtakers include Japan’s Jera, Kansai Electric, PSV Feb 7.30
Kyushu Electric, Osaka Gas and Toho Gas. PVB Feb 7.72
Average bids for second-half February are at $11.64/mn TTF Feb 6.55
Nymex Henry Hub (30 Jan) Mar 3.20
Btu today, against offers at around $12.24/mn Btu. First-half
JCC ($/bl) Nov 57.76

Latest price snapshot $/mn Btu


USGC fob Atlantic Basin fob
Asia des prices
Feb: 8.75 (2H Feb): 8.625
Argus Middle East-India (MEI) Index™ Northeast Asia (ANEA) (2H Feb): 11.940
Mar: 6.85
Trinidad and Tobago fob (2H Feb): 10.360 Southeast Asia (ASEA) (2H Feb): 11.370
Apr: 5.90
(2H Feb): 8.450 China des (2H Feb): 11.940
May: 5.55
India des (2H Feb): 10.320
Latin America des Jun: 5.20
Jul: 5.25 West Africa (AWAF) fob
Argentina: 9.92
(2H Feb): 8.725
Brazil: 9.7
Australia fob
Chile: 10.21
10.99
Mexico Gulf coast: 9.92
Mexico Pacific coast: 10.3

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

March bids are some $1.32/mn Btu below second-half Febru- Argus Middle East des spot LNG $/mn Btu
ary, while offers are at around $10.89/mn Btu. Delivery Bid Offer Midpoint ±

Unfulfilled February demand is likely to roll over into 2H Feb 10.07 10.73 10.400 -0.315
March, and possibly April, although this has not translated 1H Mar 9.32 10.12 9.720 -0.315
into many deals yet. The steep backwardation between 2H Mar 8.95 9.58 9.265 -0.265
February and April provides a huge incentive for buyers with 1H Apr 7.88 8.90 8.390 -0.435
some flexibility around their demand to look for cheaper
forward cargoes. Argus Middle East-India (MEI) Index $/mn Btu

The spread between second-half February and first-half Delivery Bid Offer Mid ±

March is $1.335/mn Btu, and is at 51¢/mn Btu between the 2H Feb 10.04 10.68 10.360 -0.158
two halves of March. First-half April is at a $1.35/mn Btu 1H Mar 9.38 10.11 9.745 -0.103
discount to second-half March. 2H Mar 8.98 9.59 9.282 -0.058
The lack of data points for March and April has kept 1H Apr 7.88 8.91 8.395 -0.208
some buying at bay, especially as recent March and April
transactions indicate easing prices. But there is some uncer- Argus Atlantic Basin fob spot LNG index $/mn Btu
Loading Bid Offer Midpoint ±
tainty as to whether colder weather and issues at Bontang
may lend some stability to March prices, at least in the near Atlantic Basin 2H Feb 8.28 8.97 8.625 -0.170
1H Mar 7.75 8.48 8.115 -0.090
term. 2H Mar 6.65 7.53 7.090 -0.130
The most recent data point for March comes from South
Argus Atlantic Basin fob spot LNG $/mn Btu
Korean steelmaker Posco’s award of a tender for a first-half
Loading Bid Offer Midpoint ±
March delivery cargo at the mid-$10s/mn Btu yesterday.
Iberian peninsula reload 2H Feb 8.20 9.10 8.650 -0.215
Posco is the only buyer to show its requirement for the 1H Mar 7.68 8.60 8.140 -0.135
period so far. But Japanese buyers are possibly in discussions 2H Mar 6.70 8.10 7.400 -0.015
for March. Northwest European reload 2H Feb 8.20 8.80 8.500 -0.200
1H Mar 7.68 8.30 7.990 -0.125
Indian buyers have been more actively seeking March
2H Mar 6.70 7.30 7.000 -0.240
cargoes. State-controlled refiners IOC and Bharat Petroleum West Africa (AWAF™) 2H Feb 8.45 9.00 8.725 -0.090
likely awarded their early- and mid-March cargoes in the 1H Mar 7.90 8.55 8.225 nc
2H Mar 6.55 7.20 6.875 -0.125
high-$9s/mn Btu last week.
Trinidad and Tobago 2H Feb 8.15 8.75 8.450 -0.075
State-run gas distributor Gail may have secured two car- 1H Mar 7.60 8.25 7.925 nc
goes at around $9.10/mn Btu despite having sought just one 2H Mar 6.25 6.90 6.575 -0.175
1-17 March cargo through its tender. The March transactions Argus Latin America des spot LNG $/mn Btu
put the spread between March deliveries to northeast Asia Delivery Price ±
and India at 79.5-83.5¢/mn Btu, a little above the 60-70¢ dif- Argentina Prompt 9.92 -0.03
ferential for shipping between the two markets. Brazil Prompt 9.70 -0.03
The ANEA, the Argus assessment for deliveries to north- Chile Prompt 10.21 -0.03
east Asia, is up by 21¢ to $11.94/mn Btu for the second half Mexico Gulf coast Prompt 9.92 -0.02
of February, down by 9¢ by $10.605/mn Btu for the first half Mexico Pacific coast Prompt 10.30 +0.08

of March, up by 0.5¢ to $10.095/mn Btu for the second half Key netbacks $/mn Btu
of March, and down by 14¢ to $8.745/mn Btu in the first half Delivery Price ±
of April. Southeast Asia (ASEA) 2H Feb 11.37 +0.16
The MEI, the Argus assessment for deliveries to the 1H Mar 10.20 -0.06
Middle East and India, is down by 15.8¢ to $10.36/mn Btu for 2H Mar 9.70 +0.03
the second half of February, down by 10.3¢ to $9.745/mn Btu 1H Apr 8.45 -0.11
Australia fob Prompt 10.99 +0.17
for the first half of March, down by 5.8¢ to $9.283/mn Btu for
Middle East fob (Asia-Pacific bound) Prompt 10.69 +0.16
the second half of March, and down by 20.8¢ to $8.395/mn
Middle East fob (Europe-bound) Prompt 6.94 +0.09
Btu for the first half of April.
Argus Northeast Asia swaps $/mn Btu
Delivery Price ±

Apr 8.60 nc
May 7.72 nc
Jun 7.02 nc

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 2 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Atlantic: NE Asia draws west Atlantic supply buyers, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has said. Firms
Cargoes loaded from Trinidad and Tobago and the US Gulf were said to have booked capacity until late this year. But
Coast have continued to travel the long way, either around some shippers have criticised the operation of the canal for
Cape Horn or via the Cape of Good Hope, to reach Pacific it not being in line with how the LNG industry works.
basin markets amid limited available capacity on the Panama The ACP is considering adding more slots to ease transit
Canal and despite the much higher costs of shipping this through the route but has not given a timeline on when this
winter. could happen.
The 155,000m³ Gaslog Skagen was due to deliver a Sabine Pass' four trains at peak capacity could produce
Trinidadian cargo to Chile's Quintero terminal on 2 February enough LNG for 307-308 loadings/yr, not far below the 365
having set off from 14.8mn t/yr Point Fortin on 16 January. slots/yr available on the canal.
And there were five deliveries to Pacific markets in And if new supply from the Maryland-based 5.75mn t/
January which had loaded at Sabine Pass and which had yr Cove Point facility, which is due to start in early March,
traversed the Atlantic Ocean and gone south of the Cape of heads through the Panama Canal it could lead to further
Good Hope, rather than using the Panama Canal. congestion.
Some vessels were still able to transit through the canal Northeast Asian markets still provided the highest net-
with the 160,000m³ Yari LNG making the voyage on Wednes- back for west Atlantic cargoes even when accounting for the
day, but there have been congestion issues since the Panama greater shipping costs for making these voyages.
Canal was reopened, traders have said. But even with these higher shipping costs, northeast
One slot per day is available to LNG carriers for transit Asian delivered prices kept a wide enough premium over
through the canal and firms which have booked long-term other buying markets to still offer the highest netback value.
capacity have been slow to release this capacity to potential A delivery to northeast Asia from the US Gulf Coast could
Global supply highlights
Supply Loading period First reported Last updated Comments

Tender closes 9 Feb. Bids valid until 14


8 des cargoes from Russia's Sakhalin LNG May 2018 - March 2019 30 Jan 30 Jan
February.
Possibly awarded to NE Asian utility in high
1 des cargo from Australia’s APLNG 5-6 Feb 29 Jan 30 Jan
$11s/mn Btu: traders
Jan-Jun 2019, Jul-Dec 2019, Tender closes on 29 January, bids valid until
24 Cove Point cargoes from Gail 23 Jan 23 Jan
Jan-Dec 2020 31 January.

1 des cargo from Australia’s APLNG 4 Feb 18 Jan 18 Jan Likely awarded at high $11s/mn Btu: traders

Likely awarded at mid-to high $11s/mn Btu:


1 fob cargo from Australia’s APLNG 15-16 Jan 9 Jan 15 Jan
traders
Likely awarded at mid-to high $11s/mn Btu:
1 des cargo from Papua New Guinea LNG End Jan 8 Jan 15 Jan
traders

1 des cargo from Angola LNG 10-11 Jan 3 Jan 8 Jan Tender withdrawn due to production issues.

1 des cargo from Angola LNG 26-27 Dec 15 Dec 29 Dec Cubal headed to Aliaga, Turkey.

1 des cargo from Angola LNG 24-25 Dec 12 Dec 29 Dec Sonangol Sambizanga headed to China.

11 fob/des Bontang cargoes, from Per-


Feb-Dec 2018 20 Dec 28 Dec Tender closed 8 Jan. Bids valid until 9 Feb.
tamina
1 des Bintulu cargo from Malaysia’s Awarded to a Japanese buyer at around
Mid-Jan 15 Dec 20 Dec
Petronas $10.80/mn Btu

13 fob Bontang cargoes from PPT Energy Feb-Nov 20 Dec 20 Dec Proposals to be submitted by 27 December.

2 fob Bontang cargoes from Indonesia’s


2H Feb, 2H May 12 Dec 12 Dec Tender closed 14 Dec, valid until 31 Dec.
PGN
Likely awarded at $9.40/mn Btu to Japanese
1 fob cargo from Australia's Pacific LNG 2H January 6 Dec 8 Dec
utility: traders.
1-3 fob or des Bonny (Nigeria) cargoes Bids due 18 October, validity expired 20
Jan-Sep 2018 13 Oct 20 Oct
from Galp October.
4-6 des or fob Bonny (Nigeria) cargoes Bids due 18 October, validity expired 20
Oct 2018 onwards 13 Oct 20 Oct
from Galp October.  Duration: up to five years

22 cargoes from Indonesia's Tangguh Feb-Dec 2018 10 Oct 10 Oct Tender closed 25 Oct.

Through bilaterals. Cargoes from Cove


4 fob cargoes from Gail Feb, May, Aug, Nov 2018 9 Oct 9 Oct
Point, linked to Henry Hub: traders
4 des cargoes from Papua New Guinea $8.50-8.60/mn Btu for Nov cargoes, $8.80-
3, 27 Nov; 6 Jan 2018; 1 Mar 25 Sep 29 Sep
LNG (PNG LNG) 8.90/mn Btu for Jan, Mar cargoes: traders.

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 3 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018
Global demand highlights
Demand Delivery period First reported Last updated Comments

Likely awarded at around $9.90/mn Btu:


1 des cargo from BPCL 14 Mar 24 Jan 31 Jan
traders.

4 des cargoes from Mexico's CFE 5-7, 17-20 Feb, 1-4, 15-17 Mar 24 Jan 31 Jan Likely awarded to portfolio players.

1 des cargo from South Korea's Posco 2-5 March 24 Jan 31 Jan Likely awarded at mid $10s/mn Btu: traders.

2 des cargoes from Mexico's CFE 12-14 Feb, 23-25 Feb 30 Jan 30 Jan Tender closes 31 Jan.

Possibly awarded at around $9s/mn Btu:


1 cargo from India's Gail 1-17 Mar 24 Jan 30 Jan
traders.
Likely awarded around $10.10-10.30/mn Btu:
1 des cargo from Japan's Tohoku 19-22 Mar 18 Jan 25 Jan
traders.

1 des cargo from IOC 2 Mar 24 Jan 25 Jan Likely awarded at $9.80/mn Btu: traders.

1 des cargo from India's GSPC 1H Feb 24 Jan 24 Jan Bids are due 24 Jan and expire 25 Jan.

9 des cargoes from Argentina's Enarsa April-June 24 Jan 24 Jan Bids are due 6 Feb, validity expires 9 Feb.

Likely awarded in the high $10s/mn Btu:


1 des cargo from India's Gail 5-15 Feb 16 Jan 16 Jan
traders.
Likely awarded at around mid $10s/mn Btu:
1 des cargo from India’s Gail 6-22 Feb 8 Jan 16 Jan
traders.
Likely awarded at around mid $10s/mn Btu:
1 des cargo from Kuwait's KPC 25-26 Feb 15 Jan 15 Jan
traders.

3 des cargoes from Pakistan LNG 7-8, 17-18, 27-28 April 8 Jan 8 Jan Bids due 07:00 GMT on 6 February.

1 des cargo from India’s BPCL 2H Feb 5 Jan 5 Jan Likely not awarded: traders

Tender closed 9 Jan, bids valid until 10 Jan.


1 des cargo from India’s IOC 19 February 5 Jan 5 Jan
Possibly unawarded: traders.
Likely awarded at around mid $10s/mn Btu:
1 des cargo from India's Gail 20 Jan - 10 Feb 3 Jan 3 Jan
traders
Vitol (2), Trafigura (1) and BB Energy (1)
4 des cargoes from Pakistan LNG 8-9, 17-18, 22-23, 27-28 Mar 24 Nov 2 Jan
were lowest bidders.
Tender closes 4 January. Delivery Feb, May,
6 des cargoes from India's Petronet Feb-Dec 2018 27 Dec 27 Dec
Jul, Sep, Nov, Dec
BB Energy (1), Gunvor (1) and Trafigura (2)
4 des cargoes from Pakistan LNG 6-7, 16-17, 21-22, 26-27 Feb 30 Oct 22 Dec
lowest bidders. Bids valid until 22 Dec.

2 des cargoes from India’s Gail 1H Feb, 2H Feb 21 Dec 21 Dec Tender closed and validity expired 22 Dec.

Tender closed 14 Dec, validity expired same


2 des cargoes from India’s Gail 2H Dec/ 1H Jan, Feb 12 Dec 21 Dec
day. Likely unawarded: traders.
Likely awarded for around mid-$10/mn Btu:
1 des cargo from India’s IOC 11 February 15 Dec 15 Dec
traders.
One cargo awarded at around $9.60/mn Btu:
2 des cargoes from India’s Gail 2H Jan, 2H Feb 4 Dec 8 Dec
traders
Tender closed 28 November, bids expired 12
3 cargoes from India’s BPCL May, August, October 2018 22 Nov 22 Nov
December.
Likely 13.5-15.5pc Brent-linked to GNF (5),
12 des cargoes from Egypt's Egas Jan-Mar 2018 20 Oct 7 Nov
Vitol (3), Trafigura (3), Glencore (1): traders.
Awarded to several sellers. Indexed  at an
6 des cargoes from India's IOC Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov '18 25 Sep 16 Oct
average of 15.5pc of Brent: traders.

1-3 fob or des cargoes from Galp Jan-Oct 2018 13 Oct 13 Oct Bids due 18 October, valid 20 October

4-6 fob or des cargoes from Galp Oct 2018 onward 13 Oct 13 Oct Duration: up to five years

achieve just under $8.40/mn Btu without transiting through continue to keep the shipping market tight with spot charter
the Panama canal, compared with around $7.75/mn Btu for a rates for dual-fuel diesel electric (DFDE) carriers east of
delivery in India. Suez at $78,000/d on Wednesday, only slightly lower than
This was despite shipping costs for a vessel carrying a US rates in the mid-$80,000s/d in recent weeks.
cargo to Chinese, Japanese and South Korean ports without But these northeast Asian markets may not be sufficient-
crossing the canal around 50¢/mn Btu higher than reaching ly above other premium markets in the summer, with some
these ports via the canal. traders expecting the reference markets to move closer to
And firms continuing to make these long journeys may the Atlantic basin and potentially to Iberia.

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 4 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

LNG spreads and oil-linked snapshot

European hubs to LNG price spreads $/mn Btu


Northeast Asia China India Middle East Middle East-India (MEI)
2H Feb Mar avg 2H Feb Mar avg 2H Feb Mar avg 2H Feb Mar avg 2H Feb Mar avg

NBP 4.84 3.43 4.84 3.44 3.22 2.61 3.30 2.57 3.26 2.59
TTF 5.39 3.83 5.39 3.85 3.77 3.02 3.85 2.97 3.81 3.00

NBP - USGC fob LNG Spread $/mn Btu Snapshot of oil-linked LNG prices (30 Jan 2018) $/mn Btu
Mar 10pc 11pc 12pc 13pc 14pc
Feb 18 -1.65
Mar 18 0.08 601 5.68 6.25 6.82 7.39 7.96
Apr 18 0.53 301 6.15 6.76 7.38 7.99 8.61
May 18 0.52 311 5.87 6.45 7.04 7.63 8.22
Jun 18 0.48
101 6.40 7.03 7.67 8.31 8.95
Jul 18 0.54
Contracts defined as: Oil-linked LNG on six-month crude average (601) contract;
Oil-linked LNG three-month crude average (301) contract; Oil-linked LNG
Japan-oil linked $/mn Btu three-month crude average plus one month lag (311) contract; Oil-linked LNG
one-month crude average (101) contract. For more oil-linked LNG forward curve
Mar 8.88 prices, please see the appendix at the back of the LNG Daily report.

UK gas and European LNG prices

NBP $/mn Btu Northwest Europe small-scale free-on-truck (25 Jan 2018)
Delivery Bid Offer Midpoint ± February ± 18 Jan

Feb 7.10 7.11 7.10 +0.372 €/MWh 21.80 -0.40

Mar 6.92 6.93 6.92 +0.319 $/mn Btu 8.00 +0.02


$/t Marine gasoil equivalent 322.67 +0.02
Apr 6.42 6.45 6.43 +0.189

May 6.05 6.08 6.07 +0.151 Competing fuels snapshot (25 Jan 2018)
Jun 5.67 5.70 5.68 +0.103 Gas €/MWh ± 18 Jan $/t MGOe ± 18 Jan

Jul 5.78 5.81 5.79 +0.099 TTF 17.800 -0.550 263.461 -2.618
2Q18 6.05 6.08 6.06 +0.147 Zeebrugge 18.042 -0.509 267.036 -1.957
3Q18 5.91 5.93 5.92 +0.111

4Q18 6.98 7.01 6.99 +0.147 Oil products €/MWh ± 18 Jan $/t ± 18 Jan

1Q19 7.60 7.63 7.61 +0.145


Gasoil bunker Rotterdam prompt 40.642 -0.240 601.500 +8.750
2019 6.42 6.45 6.44 +0.093
Gasoil diesel 10ppm German
42.314 +0.294 626.250 +17.000
2020 6.16 6.19 6.18 +0.047 NWE barge prompt
Fuel oil bunker 380cst Rotter-
Argus European des spot LNG $/mn Btu 25.181 -0.174 369.000 +5.000
dam prompt
Delivery Bid Offer Midpoint ±

NW Europe 2H Feb 6.75 9.40 8.075 +0.125


1H Mar 6.55 8.90 7.725 +0.150
Iberian peninsula 2H Feb 7.10 9.40 8.250 +0.150 Freight
1H Mar 6.75 8.90 7.825 +0.050
Italy 2H Feb 6.00 9.40 7.700 +0.075
Argus spot LNG freight $/day
Price ±
1H Mar 5.80 8.90 7.350 +0.075
Greece 2H Feb 5.80 9.55 7.675 -0.050 Freight west of Suez (steam turbine) 50,000 nc
1H Mar 5.65 9.05 7.350 nc Freight east of Suez (steam turbine) 50,000 nc
Turkey 2H Feb 7.25 9.55 8.400 +0.150 Freight west of Suez (DFDE) 78,000 nc
1H Mar 6.90 9.05 7.975 +0.050 Freight east of Suez (DFDE) 78,000 nc

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 5 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Global shipping highlights


Vessel Capacity m³ From To Loading Arrival Notes

LNG Abuja II 175,000 Bonny, Nigeria Dahej, India 12 Jan 31 Jan

Wilpride 156,000 Ras Laffan, Qatar Port Qasim, Pakistan 27 Jan 31 Jan

Wilforce 156,000 Montoir, France Indian Ocean 16 Jan 1 Feb Via Suez.

Iberica Knutsen 138,000 Point Fortin, Trinidad Dalian, China 6 Jan 1 Feb Via Panama.

Gaslog Skagen 155,000 Point Fortin, Trinidad Quintero, Chile 16 Jan 2 Feb

Methane Becki Anne 170,000 Bioko Island, Eq. Guinea Northeast Asia 9 Jan 3 Feb

LNG Benue 145,700 Bonny, Nigeria Aqaba, Jordan 15 Jan 3 Feb

Excelsior 138,000 Point Fortin, Trinidad Hadera, Israel 19 Jan 4 Feb

Yari LNG 160,000 Sabine Pass, US Manzanillo, Mexico 27 Jan 5 Feb

GDF Suez Point Fortin 154,000 Snohvit, Norway TBC 30 Jan 5 Feb

Golar Celsius 160,000 Sabine Pass, US TBC 16 Jan 6 Feb In Mediterranean.

Fedor Litke 172,600 Yamal, Russia Montoir, France 24 Jan 6 Feb


Via Cape of Good Hope. Likely NE
Maran Gas Pericles 174,000 Sabine Pass, US TBC 2 Jan 7 Feb
Asia.
Maran Gas Agamemnon 174,000 Bonny, Nigeria Pacific Basin 14 Jan 9 Feb
Pyeongtaek, South Transhipped from Fedor Litke at
LNG Jurojin 155,300 Yamal, Russia 11 Jan 9 Feb
Korea Montoir
Maran Gas Ulysses 174,000 Sabine Pass, US Atlantic Ocean 25 Jan 10 Feb

Methane Princess 138,000 Point Fortin, Trinidad TBC 20 Jan 10 Feb Headed South. Likely Chile

Provalys 153,500 Dunkirk, France Everett, US 29 Jan 10 Feb Via Zeebrugge. Yamal reload

Christophe de Margerie 172,600 Yamal, Russia Gate, Netherlands 31 Jan 10 Feb

Malanje 160,000 Soyo, Angola Hazira, India 28 Jan 11 Feb

Lobito 160,000 Soyo, Angola Ningbo, China 21 Jan 12 Feb


Pyeongtaek, South
Methane Kari Elin 138,200 Isle of Grain, UK 13 Jan 12 Feb Via Suez.
Korea
SCF Melampus 170,000 Bioko Island, Eq. Guinea China 16 Jan 12 Feb

Maran Gas Lindos 160,000 Bioko Island, Eq. Guinea Indian Ocean 23 Jan 12 Feb

Maria Energy 174,000 Sabine Pass, US TBC 18 Jan 13 Feb Via Panama

LNG Lokoja 148,000 Bonny, Nigeria Aqaba, Jordan 23 Jan 13 Feb

Marib Spirit 166,000 Bonny, Nigeria Boryeong, South Korea 18 Jan 14 Feb Via Cape of Good Hope.

Methane Jane Elizabeth 145,000 Bonny, Nigeria Boryeong, South Korea 20 Jan 15 Feb

LNG Imo 148,300 Bonny, Nigeria Futtsu, Japan 22 Jan 20 Feb

Maran Gas Troy 160,000 Sabine Pass, US TBC 31 Jan 2 Mar

Arctic Discoverer 140,000 Hammerfest, Norway Canaport, Canada 25 Jan

Maran Gas Alexandria 161,870 Sabine Pass, US Northeast Asia 6 Jan Via Panama.

Golar Crystal 138,000 Sabine Pass, US TBC 9 Jan In Red Sea

Maran Gas Sparta 162,000 Sabine Pass, US TBC 13 Jan Via Mediterranean.

SK Audace 180,000 Sabine Pass, US Pacific Ocean 18 Jan Via Panama

SCF Mitre 170,000 Sabine Pass, US TBC 20 Jan In Atlantic.

Corcovado LNG 160,000 Sabine Pass, US TBC 26 Jan

Rioja Knutsen 173,000 Sabine Pass, US Pacific Ocean 30 Jan Via Panama.

LNG Akwa Ibom 142,600 Bonny, Nigeria Pacific Basin 8 Jan Likely northeast Asia.

Clean Ocean 162,000 Barcelona, Spain Aliaga, Turkey 26 Jan Reload.

Gaslog Gibraltar 174,000 Sabine Pass, US TBC 31 Jan

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 6 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

News

Upstream issues could delay Bontang LNG cargoes production-sharing contract expired at the end of last year.
Upstream production issues at Indonesia’s Mahakam gas Total had owned Mahakam in a 50:50 partnership with Japa-
block could force term deliveries from the 22.6mn t/yr nese upstream firm Inpex.
Bontang LNG export facility to be rescheduled, with the The extent of the recent fall in output is unclear, but
prospect of delays intensifying after cargo loadings were another stakeholder at Bontang put it at “more than 100mn
temporarily suspended last week. ft³/d of gas.” That is equivalent to 2,178 t/d of LNG, and
“Upstream production at Mahakam has not totally would mean the loss of around one 60,000-65,000t LNG
stopped but has impacted (LNG) inventory levels, which are cargo a month.
very low at Bontang,” a term offtaker said. “So we are look- Upstream regulator SKK Migas has asked Pertamina to
ing to see if ADPs (annual delivery programmes) should be look into the cause of the issues at Mahakam, but the source
changed because term deliveries may be affected, espe- of the problem has yet to be identified.
cially for February. A lot of buyers need LNG in February and Indonesia’s energy and resources ministry had forecast
cargoes were scheduled based on the ADP.” that Mahakam production would fall by around 20pc this
Bontang’s term customers include Japan’s Jera, Kansai year, to 1.1bn ft³/d (11.3bn m³) from 1.351bn ft³/d in 2017.
Electric, Kyushu Electric, Osaka Gas and Toho Gas. Long-term Last year’s output declined by around 13pc from 2016. The
contracts with Taiwan’s CPC and South Korea’s Kogas expired projected fall in output comes even as Pertamina plans to
last year, and it is unclear if they have been renewed. invest $1bn in operations and $700mn to check the decline.
Two February cargoes from Bontang, part of a 13-cargo A rescheduling of Bontang’s February term deliveries is
strip offered through a tender in December, may now no likely to keep prices in February and first-half March sup-
longer be offered, an official at a Bontang stakeholder said. ported. Argus will stop assessing second-half February prices
The deadline for bid submissions was 27 December, but the from tomorrow. A few consumers in northeast Asia may still
tender has yet to be awarded. Bontang offered cargoes for be seeking February deliveries, as sub-zero temperatures
loading on 11-15 February and 19-23 February. across the region may have contributed to a more rapid
Cargo loadings at Bontang were halted last week for drawdown in LNG stocks. But supplies for such a prompt
around four days, but have since resumed. Mahakam is one delivery are almost non-existent, and may force consumers
of Indonesia’s biggest gas blocks and a source of feed gas for to seek cargoes in March instead.
Bontang. The decline in Mahakam production has reduced The production issues affecting Mahakam and Bontang
LNG inventory levels at Bontang, and may have led to the likely drove a Japanese utility to buy a 5-6 February load-
temporary suspension in cargo loadings. ing cargo from the 9mn t/yr Australia Pacific LNG plant this
The fall in output at Mahakam may also have affected week. The utility probably paid very close to $12/mn Btu,
the gross heating value of cargoes exported from Bontang, above market expectations for a cargo that is expected to
especially as production from its other feed gas source — arrive in the second-half of February.
the Jangrik field operated by Italy’s Eni — is rising. Feed gas The ANEA, the Argus assessment for northeast Asian
from Mahakam has a high heating value, while the lean gas deliveries, is assessed up by 21¢/mn Btu to $11.94/mn Btu for
produced at Jangrik has a lower heating value. The plant’s the second half of February today.
contract with Japanese customers specifies a high heating
value, so an imbalance in the proportions of feed gas supply APLNG operates above rated capacity
may make it difficult for Bontang to fulfil term deliveries. The 9mn t/yr Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) plant produced
The exact issues affecting Mahakam are unclear, but they at above its rated capacity during October-December, but
appear to have caused a larger-than-expected drop in output may see reduced production over the next two quarters
since mid-January. because of maintenance.
“Production has been falling at Bontang since the sec- Australian utility and gas firm Origin Energy’s share of
ond week of January because supply from Mahakam is not LNG production from APLNG rose to 886,000t for October-
enough,” the term offtaker said. “Everyone is observing the December from 825,900t during July-September and from
change in operatorship from Total to Pertamina, but that can- 657,000t a year earlier.
not account for production dropping at the snap of a finger. This implies that APLNG's total LNG production on a
Indonesia’s state-owned Pertamina took over operations 100pc basis was 2.36mn t or an anualised rate of 9.45mn t/
of the Mahakam block from Total on 1 January, after Total’s yr, up from 2.2mn t or 8.8mn t/yr during July-September and

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 7 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22 | Wednesday 31 January 2018

from 1.75mn t or 7mn t/yr for the same period in 2016. But Gate stocks were 1.49TWh this morning, the lowest
Origin's share of APLNG sales were even stronger at since late August, even as regasification has mostly remained
922,000t during October-December, up from 788,000t dur- just above boil-off since the start of the winter.
ing July-September and from 661,000t a year earlier. Origin And if the Christophe de Margerie unloads, it will be the
has a 37.5pc stake in APLNG and is the upstream operator. second delivery to the terminal since the start of the winter,
ConocoPhillips operates APLNG's downstream facilities with compared with five full deliveries until mid-February last
a 37.5pc share, while China's state-controlled Sinopec, the year.
project's main long-term customer, owns the remaining 25pc.
A planned maintenance shutdown was completed at Egypt pushes for quicker Zohr ramp up: minister
APLNG in November, with train two at half rates for 10 days. Egypt is in talks with Italy's Eni to accelerate the develop-
Excess upstream gas volumes were directed into the domes- ment of the 850bn m³ Zohr field, given the target to stop
tic market during these shutdowns. The firm has shutdowns importing LNG by the end of the year, Egypt’s oil minister
planned for the current quarter and next quarter. It plans to Tarek el-Molla said.
take down a single train from 8-23 March and again from 14- Egypt can stop importing LNG if the second phase of
29 April, cutting overall production across the two months production from Zohr is achieved before the end of the year,
by 375,000t — equivalent to about six cargoes with typical resulting in the country saving around $250mn/month, he said.
volumes of 60,000t each. Production is scheduled to reach over 1bn ft³/d (10.3bn
A total of 35 cargoes were loaded and shipped during m³/yr) by the end of June, having started at 350mn ft³/d in
October-December, up from 32 in the previous quarter, with December.
the increase largely because of loading timings. A further two units of 350mn ft³/d are expected start
The average LNG price received was $374.88/t during Oc- production in the first half of this year to meet the June
tober-December, down from $385.38/t during July-September target, and two more units are expected to take production
but up from $337.60/t for October-December 2016. The aver- to around 1.7bn ft³/d by the end of this year.
age LNG price received by the APLNG venture in the latest Plateau production is expected at 2.7bn ft³/d by the end
quarter is above the average price received for all Australian of 2019.
LNG exports in October and November of about $340/t, based Egypt has been able to bring new production sites on
on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. stream on time or ahead of schedule in recent months. The
Origin's revenues from its share of LNG sales rose to first 19.8mn m³/d phase of the West Nile Delta (WND) devel-
A$449.3mn ($363.8mn) from A$385.2mn during July-Septem- opment started early in March last year, while the start-up
ber and from A$297.7mn in the same quarter a year earlier.

Argus Latin America


APLNG total upstream gas production on 100pc basis was
169PJ (4.5bn m³) equivalent (PJe), which was in line with the
169.2PJe during July-September, as increased LNG produc-
tion offset lower domestic gas production.
Origin's share of APLNG production for the domestic market
LNG Summit
in east Australia fell to 10.4PJ during October-December from May 21-22, 2018 | Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
16.6PJ during July-September and from 15.9PJ a year earlier. Network and do business with 140+ industry
professionals from across the LNG supply chain
Another Yamal LNG cargo heads to the Netherlands
A second cargo from Russia’s recently commissioned 5.5mn
t/yr Yamal LNG complex is expected to arrive at the Nether-
lands’ 8.7mn t/yr Gate terminal.
The 172,600m³ Christophe de Margerie is scheduled to
arrive on 10 February, having left Yamal today.
The cargo may be for transshipment rather than delivery to
the terminal. A previous cargo loaded at Yamal was taken to
Gate for a transshipment operation at the end of December. argusmedia.com/Latin-America-LNG
The empty 164,500m³ BW GDF Suez Brussels has de- Market Reporting
clared its arrival at Gate on 18 February, and could receive Natural Gas/LNG Consulting
the cargo. illuminating the markets Events

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 8 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

of the second phase was brought forward to this year from But the targeted capacity is still subject to change, the
a 2019 start-up. The Atoll field has quickly reached plateau firm’s deputy chairman Mark Gyetvay said.
production of 8.5mn m³/d after starting in December, while A final investment decision (FID) on the project is ex-
the older Nooros field is producing above initial expecta- pected in early 2019. A first train is scheduled to be com-
tions, reaching around 34mn m³/d. missioned in 2023, and the second and third trains in 2024
These additions may be enough this year to offset strong and 2025. Novatek plans to complete front end engineering
increases in domestic demand and declining output from studies this year, the firm said earlier this month.
older fields. The 1.5 trillion m³ Utrenneye gas field in the Gydan
Zohr reaching 48.1mn m³/d by the end of the year alone peninsula will feed Novatek’s new liquefaction capacity.
would entirely displace the country's LNG demand, which Forecast Utrenneye production of 4bn-5bn m³/yr in 2023
was 12.4mn m³ — 19.6mn m³/d of gas — last year, judging by should rise to a 15-year 30bn m³/yr plateau by 2026.
vessel size.
The initial December output could cut LNG imports by Brazil’s LNG send-out dips in November
one-quarter and result in Egypt saving about $60mn/month, Brazil’s November LNG send-out reached 8.76mn m³/d in
el-Molla said, although the 9.91mn m³/d would potentially November, up more than six-fold from November 2016, but
displace more than half of the country’s 2017 LNG demand. down slightly from October because of weaker demand from
Aggregate Egyptian production could reach 197mn m³/d thermoelectric plants.
by the end of this year, assuming the end of year Zohr target Thermoelectric plants absorbed 42.47mn m³/d in Novem-
and an additional 400mn ft³/d from the start-up of WND's ber compared with 45.21mn m³/d in the previous month,
second phase. This is also accounting for a 3.7mn m³/d re- when thermoelectric generation peaked.
duction in output from more mature fields in the second half But thermoelectric plants absorbed 16pc more natural gas
of the year. than in November 2016, when demand reached 36.49mn m³/d.
Aggregate demand may have reached 149mn m³/d by the The late onset of the rainy season, resulting from the La Nina
end of last year, and could rise to 160mn m³/d if growth is weather pattern, kept thermoelectric plants online longer to
at 7pc/yr, in line with the increase in 2016 from 2015. There make up for the decline from hydroelectric generation.
is ample scope for demand to rise faster this year as new Pipeline imports of Bolivian natural gas fell 5pc to 26.44mn
gas-fired capacity is brought on line. New capacity alone m³/d in November compared with the same period of 2016 and
could add up to 42.8mn m³/d of gas demand, if running at eased slightly from October imports of 27.5mn m³/d.
full capacity. Total domestic gas demand averaged 94.43mn m³/d in
About 10.9GW of additional gas-fired capacity are November, down from 96.78mn m³/d in October. November
planned to come on stream this year, including two 4.8GW demand was up by 8pc from the 87.13mn m³/d consumed in
gas-fired plants located in Burullus and New Capital, ex- November 2016.
pected to start operating in May at 60pc efficiency. And Total thermoelectric dispatch averaged 15,871MW in No-
two 650MW units with a planned 42-45pc efficiency in South vember, up from an average of 13,594MW in November 2016,
Helvan are expected by the end of March. according to the national systems operator (ONS).Thermo-
Egypt's gas-fired capacity has been significantly underuti- electric output eased from October though, when it peaked
lised in recent years because of constraints in gas supplies, at an average of 17,694MW.
giving ample scope for higher power sector gas demand at Domestic gas production reached 113.41mn m³/d in No-
these plants as supply increases. vember, down slightly from 114.6mn m³/d in October, but up
from the 111.11mn m³/d in November 2016.
Novatek eyes higher Arctic LNG 2 capacity Domestic producers supplied 65.10mn m³/d of gas to
Russian independent gas producer Novatek’s Arctic LNG Brazilian consumers in November, up from 62.64mn m³/d in
2 project could have a capacity of 19.8mn t/yr instead of November 2016.
18.3mn t/yr as previously planned. In the first 11 months of 2017, LNG send-out averaged 5.3mn
THe increase is the result of the project's three planned m³/d, compared with 4.03mn m³/d in the same period of 2016.
liquefaction trains having a higher capacity of 6.6mn t/yr Brazilian state-controlled oil company Petrobras, which owns
instead of the previously planned 6.1mn t/yr. the country’s only two LNG regasification terminals, transferred
Novatek plans to license liquefaction technology from all shipments to the Bahia terminal in November because of a
Germany's Linde which allows for higher liquefaction capac- planned outage for maintenance at the Pecem regasification
ity, the firm said. terminal in Ceara state that started on 18 September.

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Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

The Pecem terminal, which had been responsible for the increasing LNG imports, particularly as the domestic supply
bulk of LNG send-out prior to its maintenance period, came shortfall could worsen unless new discoveries start replacing
back online in early December. reserves at a faster rate. The additional cost from importing
Thermoelectric generation has continued to ease since LNG instead of using gas from the Gulf of Thailand would be
October as spring rains started to replenish depleted hydro- around 110bn baht ($3.3bn) in 2020.
electric reservoirs late in 2017. The concession for Bongkot is scheduled to expire in
The government was able to suspend the electricity 2022-23 and PTTEP is prepared to participate as a bidder to
surcharge for January and February after it took high-cost continue as operator of the gas block. The firm had warned
thermoelectric plants offline. last year that any regulatory uncertainty delays to bidding
Hydroelectric reservoirs in all four subsystems recovered cold discourage investment as the concession heads towards
in January and will end the month slightly above 31 January expiry.
2017 levels. The ONS is currently projecting that reservoirs Shell’s sale of its Bongkot stake is part of its $30bn di-
in the southeast/center-west grid will reach nearly 40pc vestment programme for 2016-18. The company had acquired
of capacity on 28 February, up from 31pc on 30 January. the interest through its $54bn takeover of UK-listed BG. The
Precipitation levels in the region are expected to reach 87pc deal with PTTEP is expected to be completed in the second
of their historic average in February. quarter of 2018, subject to completion conditions stated in
Rainfall in the northeastern grid region, which continues the agreement.
to suffer from a prolonged drought, is forecast to reach just
28pc of the long-term average in February. Reservoirs in the Mexico to launch online natgas trading platform
region reached 18pc of capacity on 30 January, only slightly CFEnergia, the fuels and natural gas supply subsidiary of
higher than one year earlier. Mexico’s state-owned utility CFE, will launch an online natu-
This means that while LNG demand will likely ease during ral gas trading platform by the end of February.
the first four months of 2017, it should increase once the dry The platform will be used “by at least the six generat-
season begins in May. LNG send-out will likely peak in the ing companies which consume about 3.1Bcf/d," Guillermo
third quarter, before the rainy season begins in November. Turrent, CEO of CFEnergia, told Argus on the sidelines of the
Energy Mexico 2018 conference held in Mexico City yester-
Shell sells Thai Bongkot gas field stake to PTTEP day. "Then the idea is to open it up to the rest of the big
Shell has agreed to sell its 22.2pc stake in the Bongkot industrials: Grupo Alfa, Arcellor Mittal, etc.”
natural gas and condensate field in Thailand to the project’s As part of the groundbreaking 2014 energy reform, CFE
operator Thai state-controlled upstream firm PTTEP for was legally divided into separate generation, supply and
$750mn. distribution divisions. CFEnergia is prohibited from supply-
The deal expands PTTEP’s stake in the field ahead of ing natural gas on more favorable terms to CFE generating
the expiry of its concession in 2022-23, and boosts the firm’s divisions compared with other companies and so the trading
share of the country’s dwindling gas supply amid a shift to platform “will provide a transparent, public index of natural
LNG imports. gas prices in seven different zones across the country,” Tur-
Shell previously tried to sell its stake in Bongkot to rent said.
Kuwait's state-owned KPC for $900mn, but the deal was ter- The platform will start with day-ahead pricing, with
minated in October after the firms failed to reach agreement initial minimum contracts of 2.5mn cf/d but it will eventually
with the Thai government on how to treat the transaction. be used for week-ahead pricing and some forward markets,
PTTEP’s stake in Bongkot will increase to around 67pc af- he said.
ter the deal is completed, with the remaining 33pc owned by "CFEnergia will initially be the market maker as it will
Total. The stake increase will boost PTTEP’s sales by around be the only company making offers," but Turrent hopes that
35,000 b/d of oil equivalent. Sales from Bongkot are around once a clearing house system is up and running, other com-
860mn ft³/d (8.9bn m³/yr) of gas and 27,000 b/d of conden- panies will participate as buyers and sellers.
sate, with the field accounting for about 30pc of Thailand’s Most of Mexico's natural gas imports come from pipeline
domestic gas output, according to PTTEP. supply from the US as well as a small complement of LNG
Thailand expects its LNG imports to reach 35mn t/ into the Manzanillo and Altamira terminals.
yr by 2036, from 3.82mn t last year, because of a growing US gas pipeline imports to Mexico in October last year
demand-supply gap and dwindling domestic gas supplies. were 4.3 Bcf/d, up from 4.1 Bcf/d in September 2017 and
But Thai officials are mindful of the cost burden of up from 4.2 Bcf/d in October 2016, according to the latest

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Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

information from the energy ministry. ing vessels or through truck-to-ship transfers.
LNG imports averaged 700mn cf/d in October 2017, down The firm plans to continue to supply French Brittany
from 850mn cf/d in September, and up from the 508mn cf/d Ferries with LNG from 2019 with supplies from ISO tanks
imported in October 2016. trucked from France’s 9.4mn t/yr Dunkirk terminal. ISO
Despite a recent uptick in LNG imports, CFEnergia’s focus tanks moved on trucks could perform a bunkering option
is on pipeline supply. The government will add an additional more quickly than using a vessel, Total said, and the firm
8,000km of natural gas pipelines by the end of this year, plans to develop an LNG bunker supply chain based on the
increasing import capacity by 6.2 Bcf/d to a total of a little truck loading model at Dunkirk.
over 11 Bcf/d, said Turrent. Total is well positioned to supply the growing European
CFEnergia expects to buy around 60 LNG cargoes of LNG bunker market given its offtake from liquefaction facili-
around 3 Bcf each this year, similar to last year’s levels. ties in west Africa, the US Gulf coast, Norway and Russia, it
The company will likely buy fewer cargoes in 2019 once full said. The firm acquired must of French company Engie's LNG
pipeline import capacity is reached. business last year.
Once the pipeline network is complete and the LNG ter- Tenders for the construction of the bunker vessel are
minals become largely idle, they could be used for natural under review, Total said today at the LNG bunkering summit
gas storage, said Turrent. in Amsterdam. The largest LNG bunker vessel at present is
Under a draft gas storage policy published last month, Shell’s 6,500m³ Cardissa.
gas pipeline administrator Cenagas will be required to keep The targeted 2020 delivery would coincide with the
at least 45Bcf (1.26bn m³) of gas in storage by 2025, repre- introduction of tighter International Maritime Organisation
senting five days of domestic consumption. (IMO) marine fuel sulphur regulations. But shipowners have
In the second quarter, Cenagas is expected to tender been mulling other options to meet the stricter sulphur
technical studies on potential natural gas storage sites, in limits.
preparation for awards of long-term storage contracts in 2019. Total expects global demand for LNG as a marine fuel
A rise in storage capacity would allow domestically pro- to climb to 10mn t/yr by 2025 from 400,000 t/yr in 2014.
duced gas to better compete with LNG imports, strengthen- But some market participants have said LNG will continue
ing Mexico's energy security, the government says. to hold a minority share of the bunker fuel market over the
State-run Pemex produced 4.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in next decade.
December, 0.2pc more than in November but down by 11pc
from December 2016. Record Spanish LNG truck-to-ship bunkering in 2017
While Turrent agrees that storage is required, he says Spain set a new record in LNG bunkering from trucks last
that a phased policy introduction would best suit the fledg- year and system operator Enagas expects this growth to
ling market. continue to 2030.
“Let this market evolve and give it a little bit of time," he Trucks loaded 2,117m³ of LNG onto ships last year, Enagas
said. "We only have a handful of natural gas marketers and said at the LNG bunkering summit in Amsterdam today.
if we all of a sudden tell them they have to pay 50¢/Btu on The figures for 2016 were unavailable but there were
storage, that is probably going to kill the market." 1,000m³ of truck-to-ship transfers in 2015 and 200m³ in
2014.
Total considers large European LNG bunker vessel But truck-to-ship bunkering was only a small share of
Total plans to commission a 20,000m³ dedicated LNG bun- Spain's small-scale LNG market, with 58 loadings out of the
kering vessel in northern Europe in 2020 to serve existing 38,000 performed last year.
supply deals and capture growing demand for LNG as a Spanish utility Gas Natural Fenosa performed its first
marine fuel. truck-to-ship bunkering operation last year at Barcelona, and
Total plans to use the vessel to supply French shipping the firm will supply LNG to Spanish ferry company Balearia
firm CMA CGM with around 300,000 t/yr of LNG in 2020 — in a 10-year deal signed earlier this month.
the largest contract by volume for LNG bunker fuel to date. Enagas expects long-term demand to climb steadily to the
CMA CGM has ordered nine LNG-fuelled container ships end of the next decade. LNG bunkering demand across Iberia
for 2020 delivery that will each have 18,000m³ fuel tanks — could be as high as 1.98mn m³/yr by 2030, the company said.
enough for a return journey from Europe to Asia. The largest share — 1.23mn m³/yr — of demand will be
Total's vessel will be targeted to supply ships with larger from ships bunkering at islands in the Atlantic, including the
tanks rather than those already supplied by smaller bunker- Azores and Canary islands. Around 513,000m³/yr of demand

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Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

will come from Spain’s Mediterranean coast, and around next two years, when the vessels will probably be scrapped.
234,000m³/yr from the Atlantic coast. These new vessels are expected to put enormous pres-
Enagas is developing small-scale LNG infrastructure at sure on the Capesize market as they will not only cover the
existing import terminals across Spain to prepare for this new iron ore for export but also much of the existing ore that
expected demand growth. is shipped on the spot market. Vale appears to be pushing to
A jetty-based LNG bunker station at Cartagena was reduce its spot market requirements to almost zero, which
tested last year on a newbuild ferry headed to Canada. would remove one of the key drivers of the Capesize market.
Flows of up to 1,000 m³/hr are targeted for the station when The Brazil to China Capesize market is one of the main
it begins commercial operations, although Enagas did not driving factors of Capesize spot rates as there is a high
provide a date for this. volume of cargoes and each cargo keeps a ship off the spot
A bunker station at Barcelona is under construction and market for at least three months — as well as generating
planned for the end of June, Enagas said. A 600m³ capacity more profits for owners than any other route. Conversely,
LNG bunker barge will also be available at Barcelona by the routes like west Australia to north China have a high volume
end of the year. A similar LNG bunker barge is already avail- of cargoes but only keep ships off the spot market for 4-6
able at Bilbao. Studies are underway at Sagunto, Huevla weeks. In addition, shipowners hoping for a Brazil to China
and Murgados to accommodate small-scale LNG vessels and cargo need to ballast towards Brazil, which reduces the vol-
carriers at existing LNG infrastructure without disrupting ume of tonnage elsewhere and pushes rates higher in other
large-scale operations, Enagas said. regions.
Without this key route, the majority of owners are likely
Small Scale LNG vs. Gasoil and fuel oil €/MWh
to keep their vessels close to Australia, where the surplus of
Northwest Europe small-scale free-on-truck tonnage will swamp any increase in rates and keep the cost
Gasoil bunker Rotterdam of freight in that market close to or even below breakeven
Fuel oil bunker 380cst Rotterdam levels for owners. There will still be requirements in the
45
Atlantic basin for a few ships for transatlantic or west Africa/
40 Canada to China voyages, but this will not be sufficient to
absorb the surplus of available tonnage from the loss of the
35
Brazil to China market.
hhhhhhhhhhh

30
Japan's K-Line to cut spot exposure
25 Japanese shipowner K-Line made a loss in the final three
months of 2017, but made a profit in the first nine months of
20
its financial year. The firm intends to continue to reduce its
2 Nov 17 30 Nov 17 28 Dec 17 25 Jan 18
exposure to the spot freight market in the dry bulk, LNG and
U-Ming orders two new Valemaxes tanker sectors.
Taiwanese shipowner U-Ming has ordered two new The shipowner made a 3.9bn yen ($35.8mn) loss in the
325,000dwt Valemaxes from Beihai Shipbuilding in China for quarter ending 31 December, but a ¥9.3bn profit for the first
$72mn-75mn each. nine months of the financial year.
The two ships have been ordered on the back of a con- The bulk shipping segment — which includes dry bulk,
tract of affreightment with Brazilian iron ore producer Vale tankers, LNG and car carriers — made a ¥5.4bn profit over
to carry material for 25 years between Brazil and China. The the three quarters, up from a ¥5.6bn loss over the prior cor-
vessels will be delivered in 2020 and will be capable of being responding period.
retrofitted to use LNG, although they will use traditional The Japanese firm did not break down its bulk shipping
fuel initially. results, but said the dry bulk losses "shrank" as the supply-
A total of 36 Valemaxes are already on the water. The demand gap narrowed and K-Line reduced operational costs.
exact number on order is not known but contracts indicated The Capesize dry bulk market "remained on an uptrend",
that there are at least 35 on order and possibly up to 30 more. because of increased Chinese demand for high-grade iron
Some of the ships on order have been earmarked for the ore, and smaller dry bulk vessel classes were supported by
output from Vale’s new S11D mine while others are to re- China's appetite for grain and for more coal over the winter.
place the 50 VLOC (250,000 dwt) tanker conversions. These The shipowner intends to guarantee more stable dry-bulk
conversions are on contracts to Vale that will expire over the income by increasing the number of medium- and long-term

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Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

contracts for its fleet. ket, specifically with regards to a limited downturn in the
K-line intends to secure more term contracts for the LNG Capesize market before Chinese celebrations in September.
carriers, oil tankers and thermal coal carriers that com- Demand for Capesize vessels from Australia and Brazil rose
prise its Energy Transportation subdivision, and to reduce sharply from November, the firm said. The Panamax market
its exposure to spot market rate fluctuations. The Energy was boosted by South America and US grain export volumes
Transportation business logged "a smaller profit" year-on-year which remained firm.
for the nine months ending 31 December. Mol blamed weak first half very large crude carrier
K-Line's fleet includes 55 dry bulk carriers and 10 thermal (VLCC) markets on Opec production cuts, seasonal spring
coal carriers, 41 LNG carriers and 10 oil tankers. and summer demand slumps. In October-December, "the
market continued at low levels regardless of the winter
Mol's profit up on dry bulk carrier recovery demand period due to an oversupply of vessels for cargo
Japanese shipping firm Mitsui OSK Lines' (Mol) profit in- from the Middle East", the firm said.
creased by 60pc on the year in October-December 2017, on Weakening liquid petroleum gas (LPG) price variations
the back of a recovery in the dry bulk segment. caused by reduced arbitrage trading between the US and
Mol's profits in the third quarter of its 2017-2018 financial Asia-Pacific weighed on LPG carrier demand.
year reached $259mn, compared with a profit of $163mn Mol's liquid natural gas (LNG) division was stable on the
during the same period a year earlier. The company at- back of long term time charter contracts.
tributed the increase to the dry bulk sector's recovery, on The company forecasts profits of $90mn for the full 2017-
the back of support from grain exports from North America, 2018 financial year, up from profits of $47mn in the previous
steady volumes of Brazilian iron ore exports and increased financial year. Mol expects the dry bulk market will continue
winter coal imports to China. to improve over the course of this quarter and the short-
The bulk carrier segment generated higher profits in the term demand for large crude tankers should also improve
first nine months of the financial year. This was helped by until the end of the winter season and soften thereafter as
continued cost reducing measures and a more “upbeat” mar- markets remain oversupplied.

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Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Freight costs and netbacks

Freight cost $/mn Btu

Ain Sukhna and

Mina al-Ahmadi

Milford Haven
Jebel Ali and

Shenzen and
Map ta Phut
Manzanillo
Dahej and

Singapore
route via

Quintero
Altamira

Incheon
Escobar

Pecem
Aqaba

Qasim

Taipei
Aliaga

Tokyo
Angola - 0.93 1.22 1.16 0.75 1.82 1.22 1.79 1.44 0.77 0.54 1.15 1.65 1.30 1.89
Suez 1.35
Panama 1.63
Bintulu and Tangguh - 1.03 0.74 1.70 0.44 0.89 1.43 0.31 1.80 1.68 0.30 0.25 0.46
Suez 1.49 2.29 1.87
Panama 2.36
Bonny - 0.85 1.13 1.27 0.80 1.93 1.33 1.85 1.55 0.70 0.50 1.21 1.70 1.41 2.00
Suez 1.27
Panama 1.54
Bontang - 1.08 0.70 1.74 0.45 0.86 1.48 0.33 1.74 1.71 0.30 0.21 0.48
Suez 1.46 2.60 1.84
Panama 2.31
Dampier - 1.13 2.11 0.73 1.60 0.68 0.90 1.57 0.44 1.60 1.56 0.53 0.32 0.69
Suez 1.46 1.84
Panama 2.39
Gladstone - 1.59 2.43 1.18 1.34 0.78 1.35 1.19 0.78 1.74 1.21 0.66 0.66 0.70
Suez 1.87 2.25
Panama 1.97
Rotterdam - 0.51 0.92 1.12 2.26 0.70 1.61
Suez 0.91 1.39 2.29 1.42 1.90 2.12 1.71 2.36
Panama 1.46 1.61
Papua New Guinea - 1.45 2.57 1.04 1.48 0.69 1.20 1.22 0.64 1.87 1.35 0.60 0.52 0.61
Suez 1.74 2.12
Panama 2.04
Ras Laffan and UAE - 0.49 0.18 1.57 1.15 0.04 2.24 0.81 1.80 0.98 0.66 1.22
Suez 0.94 2.07 1.33 1.73
Sakhalin - 1.50 1.12 1.98 0.26 1.28 1.03 0.66 2.25 1.67 0.37 0.64 0.17
Suez 1.85 3.01 2.23
Panama 1.88
Singapore - 0.88 0.51 1.65 0.48 0.65 1.60 0.15 1.65 1.81 0.31 0.55
Suez 1.26 2.40 1.65
Sagunto - 0.25 0.94 1.00 2.14 0.25 0.61 1.49
Suez 0.64 1.11 2.01 1.14 1.62 1.84 1.48 2.08
Panama 1.47 1.62
Trinidad and Tobago - 0.91 0.41 0.77 1.93 2.04 0.67 0.30 1.27 1.89
Suez 1.33 1.83 2.75 1.86 2.58 2.83
Panama 2.17 0.82 0.97 2.31 2.01
USGC - 1.13 0.09 1.10 2.69 0.56 2.16 0.82 0.65 1.59 2.04 2.76
Suez 1.51 1.99 1.45 2.82
Panama 2.22 0.84 0.99 2.37 2.07

Netbacks $/mn Btu (front half month)


South Iberian NW North-
India China Japan Taiwan Greece Italy Turkey US Gulf
Korea peninsula Europe east US

Middle East 10.10 10.89 10.72 10.79 10.97 7.08 6.76 6.65 7.46 6.77 11.29 1.36
Australia 9.65 11.35 11.25 11.26 11.44 6.56 6.24 6.14 6.94 6.25 10.71 0.94
Nigeria 9.03 10.08 9.91 9.98 10.16 7.62 6.86 6.92 7.54 7.35 12.16 2.15
Norway 8.68 9.48 9.35 9.42 9.60 7.82 7.00 7.05 7.68 7.77 12.41 2.29
Algeria 9.23 10.04 9.91 9.98 10.16 8.12 7.52 7.56 8.21 7.81 12.43 2.31
Trinidad and Tobago 8.48 9.36 9.11 9.19 9.67 7.61 6.82 6.87 7.49 7.37 12.71 2.70
Russia 9.32 11.66 11.76 11.72 11.67 6.24 5.93 5.83 6.58 5.93 10.67 0.89

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 14 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Appendix

Full methodology of oil-linked LNG prices available at http://www.argusmedia.com/methodology-and-reference/. A subset of


the oil-linked LNG prices are published in the print edition of Argus LNG Daily. The full series is available electronically.

Oil-linked LNG on six-month crude average (601) contract (30 Jan 2018) $/mn Btu
Delivery 10pc 10.5pc 11pc 11.5pc 12pc 12.5pc 13pc 13.5pc 14pc 14.5pc

Feb 5.41 5.68 5.95 6.22 6.49 6.76 7.03 7.30 7.57 7.84
Mar 5.68 5.97 6.25 6.54 6.82 7.11 7.39 7.67 7.96 8.24
Apr 6.02 6.32 6.62 6.92 7.22 7.52 7.82 8.12 8.42 8.72
May 6.29 6.61 6.92 7.24 7.55 7.87 8.18 8.49 8.81 9.12
Jun 6.50 6.83 7.15 7.48 7.80 8.13 8.46 8.78 9.11 9.43
Jul 6.68 7.01 7.34 7.68 8.01 8.34 8.68 9.01 9.35 9.68
2Q18 6.27 6.59 6.90 7.21 7.52 7.84 8.15 8.46 8.78 9.09
3Q18 6.75 7.08 7.42 7.76 8.09 8.43 8.77 9.11 9.44 9.78
4Q18 6.73 7.07 7.41 7.74 8.08 8.42 8.75 9.09 9.43 9.76
1Q19 6.62 6.95 7.28 7.61 7.94 8.27 8.60 8.94 9.27 9.60
2019 6.46 6.78 7.10 7.43 7.75 8.07 8.39 8.72 9.04 9.36
2020 6.10 6.40 6.71 7.01 7.32 7.62 7.93 8.24 8.54 8.84

Oil-linked LNG on three-month crude average (301) contract (30 Jan 2018) $/mn Btu
Delivery 10pc 10.5pc 11pc 11.5pc 12pc 12.5pc 13pc 13.5pc 14pc 14.5pc

Feb 5.87 6.16 6.45 6.75 7.04 7.34 7.63 7.92 8.22 8.51
Mar 6.15 6.46 6.76 7.07 7.38 7.69 7.99 8.30 8.61 8.92
Apr 6.53 6.85 7.18 7.51 7.83 8.16 8.49 8.81 9.14 9.47
May 6.72 7.05 7.39 7.72 8.06 8.40 8.73 9.07 9.40 9.74
Jun 6.86 7.20 7.54 7.89 8.23 8.57 8.92 9.26 9.60 9.94
Jul 6.82 7.16 7.50 7.84 8.19 8.53 8.87 9.21 9.55 9.89
2Q18 6.70 7.03 7.37 7.71 8.04 8.38 8.71 9.05 9.38 9.72
3Q18 6.79 7.13 7.47 7.81 8.15 8.49 8.82 9.16 9.50 9.84
4Q18 6.68 7.01 7.35 7.68 8.01 8.35 8.68 9.02 9.35 9.68
1Q19 6.56 6.89 7.21 7.54 7.87 8.20 8.53 8.85 9.18 9.51
2019 6.41 6.73 7.05 7.37 7.69 8.01 8.33 8.65 8.97 9.29
2020 6.06 6.37 6.67 6.97 7.28 7.58 7.88 8.19 8.49 8.79

Oil-linked LNG on three-month crude average with one month lag (311) contract (30 Jan 2018) $/mn Btu
Delivery 10pc 10.5pc 11pc 11.5pc 12pc 12.5pc 13pc 13.5pc 14pc 14.5pc

Feb 5.50 5.78 6.05 6.33 6.60 6.88 7.15 7.43 7.70 7.98
Mar 5.87 6.16 6.45 6.75 7.04 7.34 7.63 7.92 8.22 8.51
Apr 6.15 6.46 6.76 7.07 7.38 7.69 7.99 8.30 8.61 8.92
May 6.53 6.85 7.18 7.51 7.83 8.16 8.49 8.81 9.14 9.47
Jun 6.72 7.05 7.39 7.72 8.06 8.40 8.73 9.07 9.40 9.74
Jul 6.86 7.20 7.54 7.89 8.23 8.57 8.92 9.26 9.60 9.94
2Q18 6.47 6.79 7.11 7.43 7.76 8.08 8.40 8.73 9.05 9.38
3Q18 6.82 7.16 7.50 7.85 8.19 8.53 8.87 9.21 9.55 9.89
4Q18 6.72 7.05 7.39 7.72 8.06 8.40 8.73 9.07 9.40 9.74
1Q19 6.60 6.93 7.26 7.59 7.92 8.25 8.58 8.91 9.24 9.57
2019 6.44 6.76 7.08 7.41 7.73 8.05 8.37 8.69 9.02 9.34
2020 6.09 6.39 6.70 7.00 7.30 7.61 7.91 8.22 8.52 8.83

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 15 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Oil-linked LNG on previous-month crude average (101) contract (30 Jan 2018) $/mn Btu
Delivery 10pc 10.5pc 11pc 11.5pc 12pc 12.5pc 13pc 13.5pc 14pc 14.5pc

Feb 6.29 6.60 6.92 7.23 7.54 7.86 8.17 8.49 8.80 9.12
Mar 6.40 6.71 7.03 7.35 7.67 7.99 8.31 8.63 8.95 9.27
Apr 6.90 7.25 7.59 7.94 8.28 8.63 8.97 9.32 9.66 10.01
May 6.85 7.19 7.54 7.88 8.22 8.57 8.91 9.25 9.59 9.94
Jun 6.82 7.16 7.50 7.84 8.19 8.53 8.87 9.21 9.55 9.89
Jul 6.79 7.13 7.47 7.81 8.15 8.49 8.83 9.17 9.51 9.85
2Q18 6.86 7.20 7.54 7.89 8.23 8.58 8.92 9.26 9.60 9.95
3Q18 6.75 7.09 7.43 7.77 8.10 8.44 8.78 9.12 9.46 9.79
4Q18 6.64 6.97 7.30 7.64 7.97 8.30 8.63 8.96 9.30 9.63
1Q19 6.52 6.84 7.17 7.50 7.82 8.15 8.47 8.80 9.13 9.45
2019 6.37 6.69 7.01 7.33 7.65 7.97 8.28 8.60 8.92 9.24
2020 6.04 6.34 6.65 6.95 7.25 7.55 7.85 8.15 8.46 8.76

Japan oil-linked des LNG (30 Jan 2018) $/mn Btu Australian Gas prices
Contract Price ±
Argus Wallumbilla Index (AWX) - Friday 26 Jan 2018
Feb 8.53 nc
Delivery Units Bid Offer Midpoint ±
Mar 8.88 nc
Feb A$/GJ 8.00 9.00 8.500 +0.025
Apr 9.29 -0.010

May 9.61 -0.020 Feb $/mn Btu 6.83 7.68 7.255 +0.091

Jun 9.90 -0.050

Jul 10.14 -0.070 Argus Victoria Index (AVX) - Friday 26 Jan 2018
Delivery Units Bid Offer Midpoint ±
2Q18 9.60 -0.030

3Q18 10.24 -0.080 Feb A$/GJ 8.54 9.46 9.000 -0.063

4Q18 10.23 -0.110


Feb $/mn Btu 7.29 8.07 7.682 +0.020
1Q19 10.07 -0.110
The AWX and AVX indexes, the first month-ahead indexes for Australia’s east
2019 9.84 -0.100 coast Wallumbilla and Victorian natural gas markets, are assessed each Friday and
reproduced through the week. The date shown is the date of the assessment. The
2020 9.34 -0.080 indexes will also appear in the east coast Australian gas markets page each Friday.

Japan, Korea and Taiwan LNG prices

Argus Japan, South Korea, Taiwan des spot LNG $/mn Btu
Delivery Bid Offer Mid ±

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan 2H Feb 11.63 12.25 11.940 +0.295

1H Mar 10.33 10.84 10.585 -0.060

2H Mar 9.79 10.45 10.120 +0.055

1H Apr 8.36 9.00 8.680 -0.100

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 16 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

competing fuels in asia and power market indicators

Japan: Fuel oil vs LNG S/mn Btu China: Coal vs LNG $/mn Btu

ANEA front half month Argus LNG China front half month (LHS)
Fuel oil LSWR V-500 Indonesia inc freight China domestic 5,500 kcal 90 days (RHS)
12.0 South China 5,500 kcal 90 days (RHS)
12.0 5.5
11.5
11.5
11.0
5.0
10.5 11.0
hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
10.0 10.5 4.5

9.5 10.0
4.0
9.0 9.5

8.5 9.0 3.5


3 Nov 17 1 Dec 17 2 Jan 18 30 Jan 18 3 Nov 17 1 Dec 17 3 Jan 18 31 Jan 18

Japan:Crude vs LNG $/mn Btu Japan: Coal vs LNG $/mn Btu

ANEA™ front half month ANEA front half month (LHS)


Minas prompt inc freight Coal del Australia - Japan (RHS)
Dubai front month inc freight Coal del Indonesia - Japan 6,500 kcal (RHS)
12.0 12.0 5.2

11.5 11.5 5.0

11.0 11.0 4.8


hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
10.5 10.5 4.6

10.0 10.0 4.4

9.5 9.5 4.2


9.0 9.0 4.0
3 Nov 17 1 Dec 17 2 Jan 18 30 Jan 18 3 Nov 17 1 Dec 17 3 Jan 18 31 Jan 18

India: Naptha vs LNG $/mn Btu India: Fuel oil, gasoil vs LNG $/mn Btu

Argus LNG India front half month


Argus India LNG front half month
Fuel oil HS 180cst Mideast Gulf inc freight
Naphtha LR1 Mideast Gulf fob
13 Gasoil 0.05% Mideast Gulf inc freight
17
16
12 15
14 hhhhhhh
hhhhhhh
11 13
12
10 11
10
9
9
6 Nov 17 4 Dec 17 3 Jan 18 31 Jan 18
6 Nov 17 4 Dec 17 3 Jan 18 31 Jan 18

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 17 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Europe: Front month base load break even $/mn Btu South Korea: Fuel oil, coal vs LNG $/mn Btu

Spain UK Turkey ANEA™ front half month (LHS)


11.0 Fuel oil HS 180cst South Korea del (LHS)
Coal del Indonesia - South Korea 5,800 kcal (RHS)
10.0 12.0

4.20
9.0 11.0
hhhhhhh 4.10 hhhhhhh
8.0 10.0
4.00
7.0 9.0
3.90

6.0 8.0 3.80


15 Dec 17 3 Jan 18 17 Jan 18 31 Jan 18 3 Nov 17 1 Dec 17 3 Jan 18 31 Jan 18

Atlantic benchmarks vs LNG S/mn Btu USGC diesel vs LNG $/mn Btu

ANEA™ front half month NBP front month ANEA™ front half month USGC diesel
Nymex gas front month Ice Brent front month 15
14
14
12
13
10
12
hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
8 11
6 10

4 9

2 8
7 Aug 17 4 Oct 17 30 Nov 17 30 Jan 18 31 Oct 17 30 Nov 17 29 Dec 17 30 Jan 18

us gulf coast indicative fob price

Indicative USGC fob LNG (30 Jan 2018) $/mn Btu US Nymex gas $/mn Btu
Contract Price ±
3.2
Mar 6.67 +0.04
Apr 6.40 +0.03
3.1
May 6.37 +0.03
2Q18 6.39 +0.03
3.0
3Q18 6.43 +0.02
4Q18 6.51 +0.02
1Q19 6.64 +0.03 2.9
hhhhhhh
Summer 2018 6.41 +0.02
Winter 2018-19 6.58 +0.03 2.8
Summer 2019 6.10 +0.01
Winter 2019-20 6.31 nc 2.7
2019 6.26 +0.01
2020 6.21 -0.01
2.6
2021 6.26 -0.01
Mar 18 4Q 2018 4Q 2020 4Q 2022
The US Gulf Coast indicative fob price is a derived price series based on the price of
Henry Hub gas futures. A subset of these prices is published in the print edition of
Argus LNG Daily. The full series is available electronically.
Argus LNG Daily also includes assessments of US Gulf Coast fob LNG prices (see page 1).
For more information, please see the Argus LNG Daily methodology:
http://www.argusmedia.com/methodology-and-reference/

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 18 of 19


Argus LNG Daily Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Bunker and Freight costs

Middle East bunker fuel - Fujairah $/t Asia Pacific bunker fuel $/t

380cst 180cst 380cst Sing 180cst Sing 380cst SKorea


475 180cst SKorea
450
450
425
425
400
400 hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
375
375

350 350

325 325
24 Oct 17 24 Nov 17 28 Dec 17 31 Jan 18 24 Oct 17 24 Nov 17 28 Dec 17 31 Jan 18

European bunker fuel - Rotterdam $/t Freight $/d

180cst 380cst Gasoil Rotterdam Gasoil Antwerp East Suez West Suez
650 51,000

600 50,000

550 49,000

500 48,000
hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
450 47,000

400 46,000

350 45,000

300 44,000
23 Oct 17 23 Nov 17 28 Dec 17 31 Jan 18 8 Dec 17 27 Dec 17 15 Jan 18 31 Jan 18

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