Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
2000 1 2292
2 2450
3 2363
4 2477
2001 5 2063
6 2358
7 2316
8 2366
2002 9 2268
10 2533
11 2479
12 2625
2003 13 2616
14 2793
15 2656
16 2746
2004 17 2643
18 2811
19 2697
20 2736
2005 21 2692
22 2871
23 2900
24 2811
2006 25 2497
26 2792
27 2838
28 2780
2007 29 2778
30 3066
31 3213
32 2928
2008 33 2874
34 3000
35 2913
36 2916
2009 37 2910
38 3052
39 3116
40 3210
2010 41 3243
42 3351
43 3305
44 3267
2011 45 3246
46 3330
47 3340
48 3300
Trimestre año tiempo
Año 1 2 3 4 1994 1
1994 77.4 88.8 92.1 79.8 2
1995 77.5 89.1 92.4 80.1 3
1996 74.4 185.2 162.4 178.1 4
1997 129.1 158.4 160.6 138.7 1995 5
1998 127.2 149.8 151.7 132.9 6
1999 103 136.8 141.3 123.5 7
2000 107.3 136.1 138.6 123.7 8
2001 106.1 144.4 156.1 138.2 1996 9
2002 111.8 149.8 158.5 141.8 10
2003 119.1 158 170.4 151.8 11
2004 127.4 178.2 189.3 169.5 12
2005 151.4 187.2 199.2 181.4 1997 13
2006 224.9 317.7 341.4 300.7 14
2007 244.9 333.4 370 326.7 15
2008 127.4 178.2 189.3 169.5 16
2009 151.4 187.2 199.2 181.4 1998 17
2010 224.9 317.7 341.4 300.7 18
2011 244.9 333.4 370 326.7 19
20
1999 21
22
23
24
2000 25
26
27
28
2001 29
30
31
32
2002 33
34
35
36
2003 37
38
39
40
2004 41
42
43
44
2005 45
46
47
48
2006 49
50
51
52
2007 53
54
55
56
2008 57
58
59
60
2009 61
62
63
64
2010 65
66
67
68
2011 69
70
71
72
ventas
77.4
88.8
92.1
79.8
77.5
89.1
92.4
80.1
74.4
185.2
162.4
178.1
129.1
158.4
160.6
138.7
127.2
149.8
151.7
132.9
103
136.8
141.3
123.5
107.3
136.1
138.6
123.7
106.1
144.4
156.1
138.2
111.8
149.8
158.5
141.8
119.1
158
170.4
151.8
127.4
178.2
189.3
169.5
151.4
187.2
199.2
181.4
224.9
317.7
341.4
300.7
244.9
333.4
370
326.7
127.4
178.2
189.3
169.5
151.4
187.2
199.2
181.4
224.9
317.7
341.4
300.7
244.9
333.4
370
326.7
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2 año
1994 1 77.4 77.1634 0.2366 0.05597956
2 88.8 80.0088 8.7912 77.2851974
3 92.1 82.8542 9.2458 85.4848176
4 79.8 85.6996 -5.8996 34.8052802
1995 5 77.5 88.545 -11.045 121.992025
6 89.1 91.3904 -2.2904 5.24593216
7 92.4 94.2358 -1.8358 3.37016164
8 80.1 97.0812 -16.9812 288.361153
1996 9 74.4 99.9266 -25.5266 651.607308
10 185.2 102.772 82.428 6794.37518
11 162.4 105.6174 56.7826 3224.26366
12 178.1 108.4628 69.6372 4849.33962
1997 13 129.1 111.3082 17.7918 316.548147
14 158.4 114.1536 44.2464 1957.74391
15 160.6 116.999 43.601 1901.0472
16 138.7 119.8444 18.8556 355.533651
1998 17 127.2 122.6898 4.5102 20.341904
18 149.8 125.5352 24.2648 588.780519
19 151.7 128.3806 23.3194 543.794416
20 132.9 131.226 1.674 2.802276
1999 21 103 134.0714 -31.0714 965.431898
22 136.8 136.9168 -0.1168 0.01364224
23 141.3 139.7622 1.5378 2.36482884
24 123.5 142.6076 -19.1076 365.100378
2000 25 107.3 145.453 -38.153 1455.65141
26 136.1 148.2984 -12.1984 148.800963
27 138.6 151.1438 -12.5438 157.346918
28 123.7 153.9892 -30.2892 917.435637
2001 29 106.1 156.8346 -50.7346 2573.99964
30 144.4 159.68 -15.28 233.4784
31 156.1 162.5254 -6.4254 41.2857652
32 138.2 165.3708 -27.1708 738.252373
2002 33 111.8 168.2162 -56.4162 3182.78762
34 149.8 171.0616 -21.2616 452.055635
35 158.5 173.907 -15.407 237.375649
36 141.8 176.7524 -34.9524 1221.67027
2003 37 119.1 179.5978 -60.4978 3659.9838
38 158 182.4432 -24.4432 597.470026
39 170.4 185.2886 -14.8886 221.67041
40 151.8 188.134 -36.334 1320.15956
2004 41 127.4 190.9794 -63.5794 4042.3401
42 178.2 193.8248 -15.6248 244.134375
43 189.3 196.6702 -7.3702 54.319848
44 169.5 199.5156 -30.0156 900.936243
2005 45 151.4 202.361 -50.961 2597.02352
46 187.2 205.2064 -18.0064 324.230441
47 199.2 208.0518 -8.8518 78.3543632
48 181.4 210.8972 -29.4972 870.084808
2006 49 224.9 213.7426 11.1574 124.487575
50 317.7 216.588 101.112 10223.6365
51 341.4 219.4334 121.9666 14875.8515
52 300.7 222.2788 78.4212 6149.88461
2007 53 244.9 225.1242 19.7758 391.082266
54 333.4 227.9696 105.4304 11115.5692
55 370 230.815 139.185 19372.4642
56 326.7 233.6604 93.0396 8656.36717
2008 57 127.4 236.5058 -109.1058 11904.0756
58 178.2 239.3512 -61.1512 3739.46926
59 189.3 242.1966 -52.8966 2798.05029
60 169.5 245.042 -75.542 5706.59376
2009 61 151.4 247.8874 -96.4874 9309.81836
62 187.2 250.7328 -63.5328 4036.41668
63 199.2 253.5782 -54.3782 2956.98864 400
64 181.4 256.4236 -75.0236 5628.54056
350
2010 65 224.9 259.269 -34.369 1181.22816
66 317.7 262.1144 55.5856 3089.75893 300
67 341.4 264.9598 76.4402 5843.10418 250 f(x) = 2.8454016335
68 300.7 267.8052 32.8948 1082.06787
200
2011 69 244.9 270.6506 -25.7506 663.0934
70 333.4 273.496 59.904 3588.48922 150
71 370 276.3414 93.6586 8771.93335 100
72 326.7 279.1868 47.5132 2257.50417
50
TOTAL 192893.012
MSE 2679.06962 0
0 10 20
Chart Title
400
350
300
200
150
100
50
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2
1994 1 77.4 102.3281 -24.9281 621.41017
2 88.8 103.047 -14.247 202.977009
3 92.1 103.8267 -11.7267 137.515493
4 79.8 104.6672 -24.8672 618.377636
1995 5 77.5 105.5685 -28.0685 787.840692
6 89.1 106.5306 -17.4306 303.825816
7 92.4 107.5535 -15.1535 229.628562
8 80.1 108.6372 -28.5372 814.371784
1996 9 74.4 109.7817 -35.3817 1251.86469
10 185.2 110.987 74.213 5507.56937
11 162.4 112.2531 50.1469 2514.71158
12 178.1 113.58 64.52 4162.8304
1997 13 129.1 114.9677 14.1323 199.721903
14 158.4 116.4162 41.9838 1762.63946
15 160.6 117.9255 42.6745 1821.11295
16 138.7 119.4956 19.2044 368.808979
1998 17 127.2 121.1265 6.0735 36.8874023
18 149.8 122.8182 26.9818 728.017531
19 151.7 124.5707 27.1293 735.998918
20 132.9 126.384 6.516 42.458256
1999 21 103 128.2581 -25.2581 637.971616
22 136.8 130.193 6.607 43.652449
23 141.3 132.1887 9.1113 83.0157877
24 123.5 134.2452 -10.7452 115.459323
2000 25 107.3 136.3625 -29.0625 844.628906
26 136.1 138.5406 -2.4406 5.95652836
27 138.6 140.7795 -2.1795 4.75022025
28 123.7 143.0792 -19.3792 375.553393
2001 29 106.1 145.4397 -39.3397 1547.612
30 144.4 147.861 -3.461 11.978521
31 156.1 150.3431 5.7569 33.1418976
32 138.2 152.886 -14.686 215.678596
2002 33 111.8 155.4897 -43.6897 1908.78989
34 149.8 158.1542 -8.3542 69.7926576
35 158.5 160.8795 -2.3795 5.66202025
36 141.8 163.6656 -21.8656 478.104463
2003 37 119.1 166.5125 -47.4125 2247.94516
38 158 169.4202 -11.4202 130.420968
39 170.4 172.3887 -1.9887 3.95492769
40 151.8 175.418 -23.618 557.809924
2004 41 127.4 178.5081 -51.1081 2612.03789
42 178.2 181.659 -3.459 11.964681
43 189.3 184.8707 4.4293 19.6186985
44 169.5 188.1432 -18.6432 347.568906
2005 45 151.4 191.4765 -40.0765 1606.12585
46 187.2 194.8706 -7.6706 58.8381044
47 199.2 198.3255 0.8745 0.76475025
48 181.4 201.8412 -20.4412 417.842657
2006 49 224.9 205.4177 19.4823 379.560013
50 317.7 209.055 108.645 11803.736
51 341.4 212.7531 128.6469 16550.0249
52 300.7 216.512 84.188 7087.61934
2007 53 244.9 220.3317 24.5683 603.601365
54 333.4 224.2122 109.1878 11921.9757
55 370 228.1535 141.8465 20120.4296
56 326.7 232.1556 94.5444 8938.64357
2008 57 127.4 236.2185 -108.8185 11841.4659 Chart
58 178.2 240.3422 -62.1422 3861.65302 400
59 189.3 244.5267 -55.2267 3049.98839
350
60 169.5 248.772 -79.272 6284.04998
2009 61 151.4 253.0781 -101.6781 10338.436 300
f(x) = 0.0303790905x^2 + 0.6277280243
62 187.2 257.445 -70.245 4934.36003 250
63 199.2 261.8727 -62.6727 3927.86733
200
64 181.4 266.3612 -84.9612 7218.40551
2010 65 224.9 270.9105 -46.0105 2116.96611 150
66 317.7 275.5206 42.1794 1779.10178 100
67 341.4 280.1915 61.2085 3746.48047
50
68 300.7 284.9232 15.7768 248.907418
2011 69 244.9 289.7157 -44.8157 2008.44697 0
0 10 20 30 4
70 333.4 294.569 38.831 1507.84656
71 370 299.4831 70.5169 4972.63319
72 326.7 304.458 22.242 494.706564
TOTAL 182982.115
MSE 2541.41827
Chart Title
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2
2292
3500
f(x) = 22.1604971776x + 2265.963652
3000
2500
Chart
4000
40 3210 3152.4 57.6 3317.76
3500
2004 41 3243 3174.56 68.44 4684.0336
f(x) = 22.1604971776x + 2265.963652
42 3351 3196.72 154.28 23802.3184 3000
43 3305 3218.88 86.12 7416.6544 2500
44 3267 3241.04 25.96 673.9216
2000
2005 45 3246 3263.2 -17.2 295.84
46 3330 3285.36 44.64 1992.7296 1500
10 20 30 40 50 60
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2
1994 1 2292 2296.455 -4.455 19.847025
2 2450 2317.556 132.444 17541.4131
3 2363 2338.703 24.297 590.344209
4 2477 2359.896 117.104 13713.3468
1995 5 2063 2381.135 -318.135 101209.878 Chart Ti
6 2358 2402.42 -44.42 1973.1364 4000
7 2316 2423.751 -107.751 11610.278
3500
8 2366 2445.128 -79.128 6261.24038
f(x) = 0.0230344636x^2 + 21.0318084634
1996 9 2268 2466.551 -198.551 39422.4996 3000
10 20 30 40 50 60
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2
1994 1 2292 2312.82882 -20.828817 433.839617
2 2450 2331.40566 118.594344 14064.6185
3 2363 2350.13171 12.8682946 165.593007
4 2477 2369.00816 107.991836 11662.2366
1995 5 2063 2388.03624 -325.03624 105648.558
6 2358 2407.21715 -49.217152 2422.32801
7 2316 2426.55213 -110.55213 12221.7725
8 2366 2446.0424 -80.0424 6406.78575
1996 9 2268 2465.68922 -197.68922 39081.0283
10 2533 2485.49385 47.5061519 2256.83447
11 2479 2505.45755 -26.457547 700.001803
12 2625 2525.5816 99.4184036 9884.01897
1997 13 2616 2545.86728 70.1327162 4918.59789
14 2793 2566.31591 226.684093 51385.6778
15 2656 2586.92878 69.0712237 4770.83395
16 2746 2607.70721 138.292791 19124.8959
1998 17 2643 2628.65254 14.3474633 205.849704
18 2811 2649.7661 161.233901 25996.371
19 2697 2671.04925 25.9507535 673.441609
20 2736 2692.50334 43.4966576 1891.95922
1999 21 2692 2714.12976 -22.129759 489.726254
22 2871 2735.92988 135.070118 18243.9368
23 2900 2757.9051 142.094895 20190.9593
24 2811 2780.05683 30.9431659 957.479514
2000 25 2497 2802.38649 -305.38649 93260.9073
26 2792 2824.8955 -32.895496 1082.11367
27 2838 2847.5853 -9.5852984 91.877945
28 2780 2870.45735 -90.457347 8182.53162
2001 29 2778 2893.51311 -115.51311 13343.2776
30 3066 2916.75405 149.24595 22274.3534
31 3213 2940.18167 272.818332 74429.842
32 2928 2963.79746 -35.797459 1281.45807
2002 33 2874 2987.60293 -113.60293 12905.6265
34 3000 3011.59962 -11.599616 134.551087
35 2913 3035.78904 -122.78904 15077.1487 Char
36 2916 3060.17276 -144.17276 20785.7843 4000
2003 37 2910 3084.75233 -174.75233 30538.3761 3500
38 3052 3109.52932 -57.529322 3309.62292 f(x) = 2294.3987531736 exp( 0.0079
3000
39 3116 3134.50533 -18.505328 342.447153
40 3210 3159.68194 50.3180575 2531.90691 2500
1000
500
0
2500
2000
1500
43 3305 3236.43162 68.5683787 4701.62256
1000
44 3267 3262.42692 4.57308318 20.9130898
2005 45 3246 3288.63101 -42.631009 1817.40291 500
500
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2000
1500
1000
43 3305 3071.88491 233.115087 54342.644
500
44 3267 3079.16638 187.833617 35281.4678
45 3246 3086.28421 159.71579 025509.1335
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
46 3330 3093.24559 236.75441 56052.6509
47 3340 3100.05725 239.94275 57572.5233
48 3300 3106.7255 193.274504 37355.0338
Err:502 TOTAL 1501950.62
MSE 31290.6379
229
40 50 60
40 50 60
tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2
1 2292 1985 307 94249
2 2450 2151.34516 298.654841 89194.7141
3 2363 2255.0402 107.959798 11655.3179
4 2477 2331.63022 145.369777 21132.3721
5 2063 2392.82495 -329.82495 108784.498
6 2358 2444.01502 -86.015024 7398.58432
7 2316 2488.14905 -172.14905 29635.297 Chart Title
8 2366 2527.02337 -161.02337 25928.5262 4000
9 2268 2561.81678 -293.81678 86328.3019
3500
10 2533 2593.34628 -60.346284 3641.67402
3000
11 2479 2622.20235 -143.20235 20506.9123 f(x) = 1985.0394497315 x^0.1160554308
12 2625 2648.82614 -23.826141 567.684992 2500
13 2616 2673.5563 -57.556302 3312.72792 2000
14 2793 2696.65865 96.3413486 9281.65545
1500
15 2656 2718.34582 -62.345824 3887.00181
1000
16 2746 2738.79068 7.20932142 51.9743153
17 2643 2758.13571 -115.13571 13256.2313 500
18 2811 2776.49982 34.5001846 1190.26273 0
0 10 20 30
19 2697 2793.98329 -96.983289 9405.75826
20 2736 2810.67152 -74.671523 5575.83641
21 2692 2826.63786 -134.63786 18127.3527
22 2871 2841.94576 29.0542439 844.149088
23 2900 2856.65052 43.3494773 1879.17718
24 2811 2870.80065 -59.800652 3576.11803
25 2497 2884.43891 -387.43891 150108.913
26 2792 2897.60323 -105.60323 11152.0418
27 2838 2910.32737 -72.327373 5231.24893
28 2780 2922.64158 -142.64158 20346.6201
29 2778 2934.57301 -156.57301 24515.1069
30 3066 2946.14616 119.853839 14364.9427
31 3213 2957.38322 255.616784 65339.9404
32 2928 2968.30432 -40.304316 1624.4379
33 2874 2978.92781 -104.92781 11009.8463
34 3000 2989.27048 10.7295199 115.122597
35 2913 2999.34768 -86.347677 7455.92135
36 2916 3009.17352 -93.17352 8681.30478
37 2910 3018.761 -108.761 11828.9561
38 3052 3028.12213 23.8778731 570.152825
39 3116 3037.26798 78.7320179 6198.73064
40 3210 3046.20885 163.791146 26827.5395
41 3243 3054.95429 188.045707 35361.188
42 3351 3063.51318 287.486816 82648.6692
43 3305 3071.89381 233.10619 54338.4959
44 3267 3080.1039 186.896099 34930.1517
45 3246 3088.15069 157.849311 24916.405
46 3330 3096.04094 233.959057 54736.8401
47 3340 3103.78102 236.218985 55799.4086
48 3300 3111.37687 188.623131 35578.6854
0 TOTAL 1313091.8
MSE 27356.0791
Chart Title
1985.0394497315 x^0.1160554308
10 20 30 40 50 60
POTENCIAL 14222.8586
CUADRATICO 14207.2448
EXPOTENCIAL 14330.9681
LOGARITMICO 31290.6379
POTENCIAL 27356.0791