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año tiempo ventas

2000 1 2292
2 2450
3 2363
4 2477
2001 5 2063
6 2358
7 2316
8 2366
2002 9 2268
10 2533
11 2479
12 2625
2003 13 2616
14 2793
15 2656
16 2746
2004 17 2643
18 2811
19 2697
20 2736
2005 21 2692
22 2871
23 2900
24 2811
2006 25 2497
26 2792
27 2838
28 2780
2007 29 2778
30 3066
31 3213
32 2928
2008 33 2874
34 3000
35 2913
36 2916
2009 37 2910
38 3052
39 3116
40 3210
2010 41 3243
42 3351
43 3305
44 3267
2011 45 3246
46 3330
47 3340
48 3300
Trimestre año tiempo
Año 1 2 3 4 1994 1
1994 77.4 88.8 92.1 79.8 2
1995 77.5 89.1 92.4 80.1 3
1996 74.4 185.2 162.4 178.1 4
1997 129.1 158.4 160.6 138.7 1995 5
1998 127.2 149.8 151.7 132.9 6
1999 103 136.8 141.3 123.5 7
2000 107.3 136.1 138.6 123.7 8
2001 106.1 144.4 156.1 138.2 1996 9
2002 111.8 149.8 158.5 141.8 10
2003 119.1 158 170.4 151.8 11
2004 127.4 178.2 189.3 169.5 12
2005 151.4 187.2 199.2 181.4 1997 13
2006 224.9 317.7 341.4 300.7 14
2007 244.9 333.4 370 326.7 15
2008 127.4 178.2 189.3 169.5 16
2009 151.4 187.2 199.2 181.4 1998 17
2010 224.9 317.7 341.4 300.7 18
2011 244.9 333.4 370 326.7 19
20
1999 21
22
23
24
2000 25
26
27
28
2001 29
30
31
32
2002 33
34
35
36
2003 37
38
39
40
2004 41
42
43
44
2005 45
46
47
48
2006 49
50
51
52
2007 53
54
55
56
2008 57
58
59
60
2009 61
62
63
64
2010 65
66
67
68
2011 69
70
71
72
ventas
77.4
88.8
92.1
79.8
77.5
89.1
92.4
80.1
74.4
185.2
162.4
178.1
129.1
158.4
160.6
138.7
127.2
149.8
151.7
132.9
103
136.8
141.3
123.5
107.3
136.1
138.6
123.7
106.1
144.4
156.1
138.2
111.8
149.8
158.5
141.8
119.1
158
170.4
151.8
127.4
178.2
189.3
169.5
151.4
187.2
199.2
181.4
224.9
317.7
341.4
300.7
244.9
333.4
370
326.7
127.4
178.2
189.3
169.5
151.4
187.2
199.2
181.4
224.9
317.7
341.4
300.7
244.9
333.4
370
326.7
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2 año
1994 1 77.4 77.1634 0.2366 0.05597956
2 88.8 80.0088 8.7912 77.2851974
3 92.1 82.8542 9.2458 85.4848176
4 79.8 85.6996 -5.8996 34.8052802
1995 5 77.5 88.545 -11.045 121.992025
6 89.1 91.3904 -2.2904 5.24593216
7 92.4 94.2358 -1.8358 3.37016164
8 80.1 97.0812 -16.9812 288.361153
1996 9 74.4 99.9266 -25.5266 651.607308
10 185.2 102.772 82.428 6794.37518
11 162.4 105.6174 56.7826 3224.26366
12 178.1 108.4628 69.6372 4849.33962
1997 13 129.1 111.3082 17.7918 316.548147
14 158.4 114.1536 44.2464 1957.74391
15 160.6 116.999 43.601 1901.0472
16 138.7 119.8444 18.8556 355.533651
1998 17 127.2 122.6898 4.5102 20.341904
18 149.8 125.5352 24.2648 588.780519
19 151.7 128.3806 23.3194 543.794416
20 132.9 131.226 1.674 2.802276
1999 21 103 134.0714 -31.0714 965.431898
22 136.8 136.9168 -0.1168 0.01364224
23 141.3 139.7622 1.5378 2.36482884
24 123.5 142.6076 -19.1076 365.100378
2000 25 107.3 145.453 -38.153 1455.65141
26 136.1 148.2984 -12.1984 148.800963
27 138.6 151.1438 -12.5438 157.346918
28 123.7 153.9892 -30.2892 917.435637
2001 29 106.1 156.8346 -50.7346 2573.99964
30 144.4 159.68 -15.28 233.4784
31 156.1 162.5254 -6.4254 41.2857652
32 138.2 165.3708 -27.1708 738.252373
2002 33 111.8 168.2162 -56.4162 3182.78762
34 149.8 171.0616 -21.2616 452.055635
35 158.5 173.907 -15.407 237.375649
36 141.8 176.7524 -34.9524 1221.67027
2003 37 119.1 179.5978 -60.4978 3659.9838
38 158 182.4432 -24.4432 597.470026
39 170.4 185.2886 -14.8886 221.67041
40 151.8 188.134 -36.334 1320.15956
2004 41 127.4 190.9794 -63.5794 4042.3401
42 178.2 193.8248 -15.6248 244.134375
43 189.3 196.6702 -7.3702 54.319848
44 169.5 199.5156 -30.0156 900.936243
2005 45 151.4 202.361 -50.961 2597.02352
46 187.2 205.2064 -18.0064 324.230441
47 199.2 208.0518 -8.8518 78.3543632
48 181.4 210.8972 -29.4972 870.084808
2006 49 224.9 213.7426 11.1574 124.487575
50 317.7 216.588 101.112 10223.6365
51 341.4 219.4334 121.9666 14875.8515
52 300.7 222.2788 78.4212 6149.88461
2007 53 244.9 225.1242 19.7758 391.082266
54 333.4 227.9696 105.4304 11115.5692
55 370 230.815 139.185 19372.4642
56 326.7 233.6604 93.0396 8656.36717
2008 57 127.4 236.5058 -109.1058 11904.0756
58 178.2 239.3512 -61.1512 3739.46926
59 189.3 242.1966 -52.8966 2798.05029
60 169.5 245.042 -75.542 5706.59376
2009 61 151.4 247.8874 -96.4874 9309.81836
62 187.2 250.7328 -63.5328 4036.41668
63 199.2 253.5782 -54.3782 2956.98864 400
64 181.4 256.4236 -75.0236 5628.54056
350
2010 65 224.9 259.269 -34.369 1181.22816
66 317.7 262.1144 55.5856 3089.75893 300
67 341.4 264.9598 76.4402 5843.10418 250 f(x) = 2.8454016335
68 300.7 267.8052 32.8948 1082.06787
200
2011 69 244.9 270.6506 -25.7506 663.0934
70 333.4 273.496 59.904 3588.48922 150
71 370 276.3414 93.6586 8771.93335 100
72 326.7 279.1868 47.5132 2257.50417
50
TOTAL 192893.012
MSE 2679.06962 0
0 10 20
Chart Title
400

350

300

250 f(x) = 2.8454016335x + 74.3178403756

200

150

100

50

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2
1994 1 77.4 102.3281 -24.9281 621.41017
2 88.8 103.047 -14.247 202.977009
3 92.1 103.8267 -11.7267 137.515493
4 79.8 104.6672 -24.8672 618.377636
1995 5 77.5 105.5685 -28.0685 787.840692
6 89.1 106.5306 -17.4306 303.825816
7 92.4 107.5535 -15.1535 229.628562
8 80.1 108.6372 -28.5372 814.371784
1996 9 74.4 109.7817 -35.3817 1251.86469
10 185.2 110.987 74.213 5507.56937
11 162.4 112.2531 50.1469 2514.71158
12 178.1 113.58 64.52 4162.8304
1997 13 129.1 114.9677 14.1323 199.721903
14 158.4 116.4162 41.9838 1762.63946
15 160.6 117.9255 42.6745 1821.11295
16 138.7 119.4956 19.2044 368.808979
1998 17 127.2 121.1265 6.0735 36.8874023
18 149.8 122.8182 26.9818 728.017531
19 151.7 124.5707 27.1293 735.998918
20 132.9 126.384 6.516 42.458256
1999 21 103 128.2581 -25.2581 637.971616
22 136.8 130.193 6.607 43.652449
23 141.3 132.1887 9.1113 83.0157877
24 123.5 134.2452 -10.7452 115.459323
2000 25 107.3 136.3625 -29.0625 844.628906
26 136.1 138.5406 -2.4406 5.95652836
27 138.6 140.7795 -2.1795 4.75022025
28 123.7 143.0792 -19.3792 375.553393
2001 29 106.1 145.4397 -39.3397 1547.612
30 144.4 147.861 -3.461 11.978521
31 156.1 150.3431 5.7569 33.1418976
32 138.2 152.886 -14.686 215.678596
2002 33 111.8 155.4897 -43.6897 1908.78989
34 149.8 158.1542 -8.3542 69.7926576
35 158.5 160.8795 -2.3795 5.66202025
36 141.8 163.6656 -21.8656 478.104463
2003 37 119.1 166.5125 -47.4125 2247.94516
38 158 169.4202 -11.4202 130.420968
39 170.4 172.3887 -1.9887 3.95492769
40 151.8 175.418 -23.618 557.809924
2004 41 127.4 178.5081 -51.1081 2612.03789
42 178.2 181.659 -3.459 11.964681
43 189.3 184.8707 4.4293 19.6186985
44 169.5 188.1432 -18.6432 347.568906
2005 45 151.4 191.4765 -40.0765 1606.12585
46 187.2 194.8706 -7.6706 58.8381044
47 199.2 198.3255 0.8745 0.76475025
48 181.4 201.8412 -20.4412 417.842657
2006 49 224.9 205.4177 19.4823 379.560013
50 317.7 209.055 108.645 11803.736
51 341.4 212.7531 128.6469 16550.0249
52 300.7 216.512 84.188 7087.61934
2007 53 244.9 220.3317 24.5683 603.601365
54 333.4 224.2122 109.1878 11921.9757
55 370 228.1535 141.8465 20120.4296
56 326.7 232.1556 94.5444 8938.64357
2008 57 127.4 236.2185 -108.8185 11841.4659 Chart
58 178.2 240.3422 -62.1422 3861.65302 400
59 189.3 244.5267 -55.2267 3049.98839
350
60 169.5 248.772 -79.272 6284.04998
2009 61 151.4 253.0781 -101.6781 10338.436 300
f(x) = 0.0303790905x^2 + 0.6277280243
62 187.2 257.445 -70.245 4934.36003 250
63 199.2 261.8727 -62.6727 3927.86733
200
64 181.4 266.3612 -84.9612 7218.40551
2010 65 224.9 270.9105 -46.0105 2116.96611 150
66 317.7 275.5206 42.1794 1779.10178 100
67 341.4 280.1915 61.2085 3746.48047
50
68 300.7 284.9232 15.7768 248.907418
2011 69 244.9 289.7157 -44.8157 2008.44697 0
0 10 20 30 4
70 333.4 294.569 38.831 1507.84656
71 370 299.4831 70.5169 4972.63319
72 326.7 304.458 22.242 494.706564
TOTAL 182982.115
MSE 2541.41827
Chart Title

f(x) = 0.0303790905x^2 + 0.6277280243x + 101.6691482227

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2

1994 1 77.4 92.6494772 -15.249477 232.546553


2 88.8 94.1343775 -5.3343775 28.4555835
3 92.1 95.6430765 -3.5430765 12.553391
4 79.8 97.1759555 -17.375956 301.92383
1995 5 77.5 98.7334021 -21.233402 450.857364
6 89.1 100.31581 -11.21581 125.794394
7 92.4 101.923579 -9.5235793 90.6985618
8 80.1 103.557116 -23.457116 550.236308
1996 9 74.4 105.216834 -30.816834 949.677277
10 185.2 106.903153 78.2968473 6130.3963
11 162.4 108.616498 53.7835022 2892.66511
12 178.1 110.357303 67.7426972 4589.07302
1997 13 129.1 112.126008 16.9739921 288.116408
14 158.4 113.92306 44.4769399 1978.19818
15 160.6 115.748914 44.8510861 2011.61993
16 138.7 117.604031 21.0959693 445.039921
1998 17 127.2 119.48888 7.71112038 59.4613775
18 149.8 121.403937 28.3960628 806.336384
19 151.7 123.349687 28.3503125 803.740219
20 132.9 125.326623 7.57337749 57.3560466
1999 21 103 127.335242 -24.335242 592.204004
22 136.8 129.376054 7.42394618 55.1149768
23 141.3 131.449574 9.85042612 97.0308948
24 123.5 133.556326 -10.056326 101.129701
2000 25 107.3 135.696844 -28.396844 806.38075
26 136.1 137.871668 -1.7716679 3.13880702
27 138.6 140.081348 -1.4813478 2.19439126
28 123.7 142.326442 -18.626442 346.944357
2001 29 106.1 144.607519 -38.507519 1482.82905
30 144.4 146.925155 -2.5251553 6.37640927
31 156.1 149.279936 6.82006384 46.5132707
32 138.2 151.672457 -13.472457 181.507105
2002 33 111.8 154.103324 -42.303324 1789.57118
34 149.8 156.573149 -6.7731495 45.8755536
35 158.5 159.082559 -0.5825595 0.33937555
36 141.8 161.632188 -19.832188 393.315681
2003 37 119.1 164.22268 -45.12268 2036.05622
38 158 166.854689 -8.8546893 78.405522
39 170.4 169.528882 0.87111768 0.75884601
40 151.8 172.245935 -20.445935 418.036253
2004 41 127.4 175.006534 -47.606534 2266.38206
42 178.2 177.811377 0.38862285 0.15102772
43 189.3 180.661174 8.63882611 74.6293166
44 169.5 183.556645 -14.056645 197.589256
2005 45 151.4 186.498521 -35.098521 1231.90619
46 187.2 189.487547 -2.2875474 5.23287314
47 199.2 192.524479 6.67552096 44.5625801
48 181.4 195.610084 -14.210084 201.926482
2006 49 224.9 198.745142 26.1548582 684.076607
50 317.7 201.930446 115.769554 13402.5897
51 341.4 205.166801 136.233199 18559.4846
52 300.7 208.455025 92.2449752 8509.13545
2007 53 244.9 211.79595 33.1040504 1095.87815
54 333.4 215.19042 118.20958 13973.5049
55 370 218.639293 151.360707 22910.0635
56 326.7 222.143442 104.556558 10932.0738
2008 57 127.4 225.703752 -98.303752 9663.62774 Chart Title
58 178.2 229.321124
400 -51.121124 2613.36932
59 189.3 232.996471 -43.696471 1909.38162
350
60 169.5 236.730724 -67.230724 4519.97025
2009 61 151.4 300 -89.124826 7943.23455
240.524826
f(x) = 91.188314224 exp( 0.0159254872 x )
62 187.2 244.379736
250 -57.179736 3269.52218
63 199.2 248.296429 -49.096429 2410.45931
200
64 181.4 252.275895 -70.875895 5023.39247
2010 65 224.9 150 -31.41914 987.162371
256.31914
66 317.7 260.427187
100 57.272813 3280.17511
67 341.4 264.601074 76.7989263 5898.07508
50
68 300.7 268.841856 31.8581444 1014.94136
2011 69 244.9 273.1506050 0 -28.25060510 798.096679
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
70 333.4 277.528411 55.8715891 3121.63447
71 370 281.97638 88.0236197 7748.15763
72 326.7 286.495638 40.2043624 1616.39076
TOTAL 187195.246
MSE 2599.93397
50 60 70 80
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2

1994 1 77.4 -8.1392 85.5392 7316.95474


2 88.8 30.7692307 58.0307693 3367.57019
3 92.1 53.5292036 38.5707964 1487.70633
4 79.8 69.6776614 10.1223386 102.461739
1995 5 77.5 82.2033783 -4.7033783 22.1217678
6 89.1 92.4376343 -3.3376343 11.1398026
7 92.4 101.090574 -8.6905744 75.5260833
8 80.1 108.586092 -28.486092 811.457441
1996 9 74.4 115.197607 -40.797607 1664.44475
10 185.2 121.111809 64.088191 4107.29622
11 162.4 126.461855 35.9381447 1291.55024
12 178.1 131.346065 46.753935 2185.93044
1997 13 129.1 135.839102 -6.7391023 45.4154996
14 158.4 139.999005 18.4009949 338.596614
15 160.6 143.871782 16.7282181 279.83328
16 138.7 147.494523 -8.7945227 77.3436303
1998 17 127.2 150.897565 -23.697565 561.57457
18 149.8 154.106038 -4.3060379 18.5419623
19 151.7 157.140993 -5.4409932 29.6044072
20 132.9 160.02024 -27.12024 735.507402
1999 21 103 162.758978 -59.758978 3571.13545
22 136.8 165.370286 -28.570286 816.261244
23 141.3 167.865497 -26.565497 705.725621
24 123.5 170.254496 -46.754496 2185.98286
2000 25 107.3 172.545957 -65.245957 4257.03486
26 136.1 174.747533 -38.647533 1493.6318
27 138.6 176.866011 -38.266011 1464.28758
28 123.7 178.907436 -55.207436 3047.86096
2001 29 106.1 180.877217 -74.777217 5591.63216
30 144.4 182.780213 -38.380213 1473.04072
31 156.1 184.620804 -28.520804 813.436247
32 138.2 186.402953 -48.202953 2323.52472
2002 33 111.8 188.130259 -76.330259 5826.30843
34 149.8 189.805995 -40.005995 1600.47966
35 158.5 191.433153 -32.933153 1084.59255
36 141.8 193.014469 -51.214469 2622.92179
2003 37 119.1 194.552455 -75.452455 5693.07299
38 158 196.049424 -38.049424 1447.75866
39 170.4 197.507506 -27.107506 734.816875
40 151.8 198.92867 -47.12867 2221.11157
2004 41 127.4 200.314741 -72.914741 5316.55943
42 178.2 201.667409 -23.467409 550.71927
43 189.3 202.988246 -13.688246 187.368081
44 169.5 204.278717 -34.778717 1209.55914
2005 45 151.4 205.540186 -54.140186 2931.15969
46 187.2 206.773928 -19.573928 383.138638
47 199.2 207.981135 -8.7811353 77.1083376
48 181.4 209.162926 -27.762926 770.780079
2006 49 224.9 210.320349 14.5796512 212.566229
50 317.7 211.454387 106.245613 11288.1302
51 341.4 212.565968 128.834032 16598.2077
52 300.7 213.655964 87.0440363 7576.66426
2007 53 244.9 214.725196 30.174804 910.518797
54 333.4 215.774441 117.625559 13835.772
55 370 216.804434 153.195566 23468.8815
56 326.7 217.815866 108.884134 11855.7545
2008 57 127.4 218.809397 -91.409397 8355.67783
58 178.2 219.785648 -41.585648 1729.36608 Chart Title
59 189.3 220.745209
400 -31.445209 988.80119
60 169.5 221.688643 -52.188643 2723.65449
350
2009 61 151.4 222.616483 -71.216483 5071.7874
62 187.2 300 -36.329234 1319.81327
223.529234
63 199.2 224.427382
250 -25.227382 636.420782
64 181.4 225.311384 -43.911384 1928.20966
f(x) = 56.1331948307 l n(x) - 8.1391736335
200
2010 65 224.9 226.181681 -1.2816806 1.64270521
66 317.7 150 90.6613104 8219.4732
227.03869
67 341.4 227.882811
100 113.517189 12886.1522
68 300.7 228.714426 71.985574 5181.92286
50
2011 69 244.9 229.5339 15.3660996 236.117016
70 333.4 230.3415830 0103.058417
10 10621.0372
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
71 370 231.13781 138.86219 19282.7079
72 326.7 231.922899 94.7771007 8982.69882
TOTAL 258843.565
MSE 3595.04951
50 60 70 80
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2

1994 1 77.4 52.619 24.781 614.097961


2 88.8 66.6397889 22.1602111 491.074955
3 92.1 76.5148117 15.5851883 242.898094
4 79.8 84.3965387 -4.5965387 21.1281676
1995 5 77.5 91.0650159 -13.565016 184.009656
6 89.1 96.9028469 -7.8028469 60.8844199
7 92.4 102.129687 -9.7296873 94.6668154
8 80.1 106.884728 -26.784728 717.421673
1996 9 74.4 111.262404 -36.862404 1358.83679
10 185.2 115.330079 69.8699208 4881.80583
11 162.4 119.137702 43.2622984 1871.62646
12 178.1 122.723451 55.3765491 3066.56219
1997 13 129.1 126.117248 2.98275221 8.89681076
14 158.4 129.343028 29.0569717 844.307605
15 160.6 132.420277 28.1797232 794.0968
16 138.7 135.365091 3.33490875 11.1216164
1998 17 127.2 138.190944 -10.990944 120.800844
18 149.8 140.909236 8.89076406 79.0456856
19 151.7 143.529713 8.17028666 66.7535841
20 132.9 146.060779 -13.160779 173.206106
1999 21 103 148.509736 -45.509736 2071.13607
22 136.8 150.882975 -14.082975 198.330198
23 141.3 153.186127 -11.886127 141.280021
24 123.5 155.424179 -31.924179 1019.15319
2000 25 107.3 157.601572 -50.301572 2530.24815
26 136.1 159.722282 -23.622282 558.012221
27 138.6 161.789883 -23.189883 537.770676
28 123.7 163.8076 -40.1076 1608.61958
2001 29 106.1 165.778356 -59.678356 3561.50615
30 144.4 167.704808 -23.304808 543.114078
31 156.1 169.589381 -13.489381 181.963405
32 138.2 171.434294 -33.234294 1104.51829
2002 33 111.8 173.241582 -61.441582 3775.068
34 149.8 175.013119 -25.213119 635.70138
35 158.5 176.750634 -18.250634 333.085634
36 141.8 178.455724 -36.655724 1343.6421
2003 37 119.1 180.129871 -61.029871 3724.64515
38 158 181.77445 -23.77445 565.224487
39 170.4 183.390742 -12.990742 168.759385
40 151.8 184.97994 -33.17994 1100.90845
2004 41 127.4 186.54316 -59.14316 3497.91334
42 178.2 188.081443 -9.8814431 97.6429183
43 189.3 189.595768 -0.2957683 0.08747891
44 169.5 191.087053 -21.587053 466.000852
2005 45 151.4 192.556159 -41.156159 1693.82945
46 187.2 194.003899 -6.8038995 46.2930479
47 199.2 195.431039 3.76896131 14.2050694
48 181.4 196.838299 -15.438299 238.341084
2006 49 224.9 198.226364 26.6736363 711.482872
50 317.7 199.595878 118.104122 13948.5837
51 341.4 200.947453 140.452547 19726.9179
52 300.7 202.28167 98.4183303 9686.16774
2007 53 244.9 203.599078 41.3009222 1705.76617
54 333.4 204.900201 128.499799 16512.1984
55 370 206.185535 163.814465 26835.1788
56 326.7 207.455556 119.244444 14219.2375
2008 57 127.4 208.710713 -81.310713 6611.432 Chart Title
58 178.2 209.951437
400 -31.751437 1008.15372
59 189.3 211.178138 -21.878138 478.652912
350
60 169.5 212.391209 -42.891209 1839.65578
2009 61 151.4 300 -62.191024 3867.72348
213.591024
62 187.2 214.777943
250 -27.577943 760.542923
63 199.2 215.952308 -16.752308 280.639816
f(x) = 52.6188073356 x^0.3407906756
200
64 181.4 217.114448 -35.714448 1275.52182
2010 65 224.9 150 6.63532042 44.0274771
218.26468
66 317.7 219.403304
100 98.2966959 9662.24043
67 341.4 220.530612 120.869388 14609.4089
50
68 300.7 221.646883 79.0531173 6249.39535
2011 69 244.9 222.7523840 022.147616210 490.516903
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
70 333.4 223.847373 109.552627 12001.7781
71 370 224.932099 145.067901 21044.696
72 326.7 226.006799 100.693201 10139.1206
TOTAL 241169.281
MSE 3349.57335
50 60 70 80
POTENCIAL 2679.06962
CUADRATICO 2541.41827
EXPOTENCIAL 2599.93397
LOGARITMICO 3595.04951
POTENCIAL 3349.57335
Trimestre
Año 1 2 3 4
2000 2292 2450 2363 2477 2000 1 2292
2001 2063 2358 2316 2366 2 2450
2002 2268 2533 2479 2625 3 2363
2003 2616 2793 2656 2746 4 2477
2004 2643 2811 2697 2736 2001 5 2063
2005 2692 2871 2900 2811 6 2358
2006 2497 2792 2838 2780 7 2316
2007 2778 3066 3213 2928 8 2366
2008 2874 3000 2913 2916 2002 9 2268
2009 2910 3052 3116 3210 10 2533
2010 3243 3351 3305 3267 11 2479
2011 3246 3330 3340 3300 12 2625
2003 13 2616
14 2793
15 2656
16 2746
2004 17 2643
18 2811
19 2697
20 2736
2005 21 2692
22 2871
23 2900
24 2811
2006 25 2497
26 2792
27 2838
28 2780
2007 29 2778
30 3066
31 3213
32 2928
2008 33 2874
34 3000
35 2913
36 2916
2009 37 2910
38 3052
39 3116
40 3210
2010 41 3243
42 3351
43 3305
44 3267
2011 45 3246
46 3330
47 3340
48 3300
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2

2292

1994 1 2288.16 3.84 14.7456


2 2450 2310.32 139.68 19510.5024
3 2363 2332.48 30.52 931.4704
4 2477 2354.64 122.36 14971.9696
1995 5 2063 2376.8 -313.8 98470.44
6 2358 2398.96 -40.96 1677.7216
7 2316 2421.12 -105.12 11050.2144
8 2366 2443.28 -77.28 5972.1984
1996 9 2268 2465.44 -197.44 38982.5536
10 2533 2487.6 45.4 2061.16
11 2479 2509.76 -30.76 946.1776
12 2625 2531.92 93.08 8663.8864
1997 13 2616 2554.08 61.92 3834.0864
14 2793 2576.24 216.76 46984.8976
15 2656 2598.4 57.6 3317.76
16 2746 2620.56 125.44 15735.1936
1998 17 2643 2642.72 0.28 0.0784
18 2811 2664.88 146.12 21351.0544
19 2697 2687.04 9.96 99.2016
20 2736 2709.2 26.8 718.24
1999 21 2692 2731.36 -39.36 1549.2096
22 2871 2753.52 117.48 13801.5504
23 2900 2775.68 124.32 15455.4624
24 2811 2797.84 13.16 173.1856
2000 25 2497 2820 -323 104329
26 2792 2842.16 -50.16 2516.0256
27 2838 2864.32 -26.32 692.7424
28 2780 2886.48 -106.48 11337.9904
2001 29 2778 2908.64 -130.64 17066.8096
30 3066 2930.8 135.2 18279.04
31 3213 2952.96 260.04 67620.8016
32 2928 2975.12 -47.12 2220.2944
2002 33 2874 2997.28 -123.28 15197.9584
34 3000 3019.44 -19.44 377.9136
35 2913 3041.6 -128.6 16537.96
36 2916 3063.76 -147.76 21833.0176
2003 37 2910 3085.92 -175.92 30947.8464
38 3052 3108.08 -56.08 3144.9664 Chart
39 3116 3130.24 -14.24 202.7776
4000

3500
f(x) = 22.1604971776x + 2265.963652
3000

2500
Chart
4000
40 3210 3152.4 57.6 3317.76
3500
2004 41 3243 3174.56 68.44 4684.0336
f(x) = 22.1604971776x + 2265.963652
42 3351 3196.72 154.28 23802.3184 3000
43 3305 3218.88 86.12 7416.6544 2500
44 3267 3241.04 25.96 673.9216
2000
2005 45 3246 3263.2 -17.2 295.84
46 3330 3285.36 44.64 1992.7296 1500

47 3340 3307.52 32.48 1054.9504 1000


48 3300 3329.68 -29.68 880.9024 500
TOTAL 682697.214
0
MSE 14222.8586 0 10 20
Chart Title

f(x) = 22.1604971776x + 2265.9636524823


Chart Title

f(x) = 22.1604971776x + 2265.9636524823

10 20 30 40 50 60
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2
1994 1 2292 2296.455 -4.455 19.847025
2 2450 2317.556 132.444 17541.4131
3 2363 2338.703 24.297 590.344209
4 2477 2359.896 117.104 13713.3468
1995 5 2063 2381.135 -318.135 101209.878 Chart Ti
6 2358 2402.42 -44.42 1973.1364 4000
7 2316 2423.751 -107.751 11610.278
3500
8 2366 2445.128 -79.128 6261.24038
f(x) = 0.0230344636x^2 + 21.0318084634
1996 9 2268 2466.551 -198.551 39422.4996 3000

10 2533 2488.02 44.98 2023.2004 2500


11 2479 2509.535 -30.535 932.386225 2000
12 2625 2531.096 93.904 8817.96122
1500
1997 13 2616 2552.703 63.297 4006.51021
14 2793 2574.356 218.644 47805.1987 1000

15 2656 2596.055 59.945 3593.40302 500


16 2746 2617.8 128.2 16435.24
0
1998 17 2643 2639.591 3.409 11.621281 0 10 20 30

18 2811 2661.428 149.572 22371.7832


19 2697 2683.311 13.689 187.388721
20 2736 2705.24 30.76 946.1776
1999 21 2692 2727.215 -35.215 1240.09623
22 2871 2749.236 121.764 14826.4717
23 2900 2771.303 128.697 16562.9178
24 2811 2793.416 17.584 309.197056
2000 25 2497 2815.575 -318.575 101490.031
26 2792 2837.78 -45.78 2095.8084
27 2838 2860.031 -22.031 485.364961
28 2780 2882.328 -102.328 10471.0196
2001 29 2778 2904.671 -126.671 16045.5422
30 3066 2927.06 138.94 19304.3236
31 3213 2949.495 263.505 69434.885
32 2928 2971.976 -43.976 1933.88858
2002 33 2874 2994.503 -120.503 14520.973
34 3000 3017.076 -17.076 291.589776
35 2913 3039.695 -126.695 16051.623
36 2916 3062.36 -146.36 21421.2496
2003 37 2910 3085.071 -175.071 30649.855
38 3052 3107.828 -55.828 3116.76558
39 3116 3130.631 -14.631 214.066161
40 3210 3153.48 56.52 3194.5104
2004 41 3243 3176.375 66.625 4438.89063
42 3351 3199.316 151.684 23008.0359
43 3305 3222.303 82.697 6838.79381
44 3267 3245.336 21.664 469.328896
2005 45 3246 3268.415 -22.415 502.432225
46 3330 3291.54 38.46 1479.1716
47 3340 3314.711 25.289 639.533521
48 3300 3337.928 -37.928 1438.53318
2275.4 TOTAL 681947.753
MSE 14207.2448
Chart Title

(x) = 0.0230344636x^2 + 21.0318084634x + 2275.3693917669

10 20 30 40 50 60
año tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2
1994 1 2292 2312.82882 -20.828817 433.839617
2 2450 2331.40566 118.594344 14064.6185
3 2363 2350.13171 12.8682946 165.593007
4 2477 2369.00816 107.991836 11662.2366
1995 5 2063 2388.03624 -325.03624 105648.558
6 2358 2407.21715 -49.217152 2422.32801
7 2316 2426.55213 -110.55213 12221.7725
8 2366 2446.0424 -80.0424 6406.78575
1996 9 2268 2465.68922 -197.68922 39081.0283
10 2533 2485.49385 47.5061519 2256.83447
11 2479 2505.45755 -26.457547 700.001803
12 2625 2525.5816 99.4184036 9884.01897
1997 13 2616 2545.86728 70.1327162 4918.59789
14 2793 2566.31591 226.684093 51385.6778
15 2656 2586.92878 69.0712237 4770.83395
16 2746 2607.70721 138.292791 19124.8959
1998 17 2643 2628.65254 14.3474633 205.849704
18 2811 2649.7661 161.233901 25996.371
19 2697 2671.04925 25.9507535 673.441609
20 2736 2692.50334 43.4966576 1891.95922
1999 21 2692 2714.12976 -22.129759 489.726254
22 2871 2735.92988 135.070118 18243.9368
23 2900 2757.9051 142.094895 20190.9593
24 2811 2780.05683 30.9431659 957.479514
2000 25 2497 2802.38649 -305.38649 93260.9073
26 2792 2824.8955 -32.895496 1082.11367
27 2838 2847.5853 -9.5852984 91.877945
28 2780 2870.45735 -90.457347 8182.53162
2001 29 2778 2893.51311 -115.51311 13343.2776
30 3066 2916.75405 149.24595 22274.3534
31 3213 2940.18167 272.818332 74429.842
32 2928 2963.79746 -35.797459 1281.45807
2002 33 2874 2987.60293 -113.60293 12905.6265
34 3000 3011.59962 -11.599616 134.551087
35 2913 3035.78904 -122.78904 15077.1487 Char
36 2916 3060.17276 -144.17276 20785.7843 4000
2003 37 2910 3084.75233 -174.75233 30538.3761 3500
38 3052 3109.52932 -57.529322 3309.62292 f(x) = 2294.3987531736 exp( 0.0079
3000
39 3116 3134.50533 -18.505328 342.447153
40 3210 3159.68194 50.3180575 2531.90691 2500

2004 41 3243 3185.06078 57.939222 3356.95344 2000


42 3351 3210.64346 140.356541 19699.9587
1500

1000

500

0
2500

2000

1500
43 3305 3236.43162 68.5683787 4701.62256
1000
44 3267 3262.42692 4.57308318 20.9130898
2005 45 3246 3288.63101 -42.631009 1817.40291 500

46 3330 3315.04557 14.9544258 223.63485 0


0 10 20
47 3340 3341.6723 -1.6723037 2.79659975
48 3300 3368.5129 -68.512901 4694.01766
2275.4 TOTAL 687886.469
MSE 14330.9681
Chart Title

f(x) = 2294.3987531736 exp( 0.0079711181 x )


0 10 20 30 40 50 60
tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2
1 2292 1880.6 411.4 169249.96
2 2450 2100.14051 349.859494 122401.665
3 2363 2228.56347 134.43653 18073.1805
4 2477 2319.68101 157.318987 24749.2637
5 2063 2390.35727 -327.35727 107162.782
6 2358 2448.10398 -90.103977 8118.72662
7 2316 2496.92812 -180.92812 32734.9852
8 2366 2539.22152 -173.22152 30005.6948
9 2268 2576.52694 -308.52694 95188.8729
10 2533 2609.89778 -76.897777 5913.26803
11 2479 2640.08537 -161.08537 25948.4963
12 2625 2667.64448 -42.644483 1818.55195
13 2616 2692.99641 -76.99641 5928.44715
14 2793 2716.46863 76.531372 5857.0509
15 2656 2738.32074 -82.32074 6776.70427
16 2746 2758.76203 -12.762026 162.869307
17 2643 2777.96366 -134.96366 18215.1902
18 2811 2796.06745 14.9325531 222.981143
19 2697 2813.19216 -116.19216 13500.6176
20 2736 2829.43828 -93.438283 8730.71273
21 2692 2844.89159 -152.89159 23375.8388
22 2871 2859.62588 11.3741237 129.370691
23 2900 2873.70508 26.294917 691.422659
24 2811 2887.18499 -76.18499 5804.15265
25 2497 2900.11454 -403.11454 162501.332
26 2792 2912.53692 -120.53692 14529.1482
27 2838 2924.49041 -86.490411 7480.59112
28 2780 2936.00913 -156.00913 24338.85
29 2778 2947.12361 -169.12361 28602.7949
30 3066 2957.86125 108.138753 11693.99
31 3213 2968.24677 244.753233 59904.1449
32 2928 2978.30253 -50.302532 2530.34478
33 2874 2988.04884 -114.04884 13007.1379
34 3000 2997.50417 2.49583104 6.22917257
Chart Title
35 2913 40008776.95258
3006.68539 -93.685392
36 2916 3015.60795 -99.607953
35009921.74438
37 2910 3024.28603 -114.28603
3000
13061.2968
f(x) = 316.7331140967 l n(x) + 1880.6439602229
38 3052 3032.73266 19.2673356 371.230222
2500
39 3116 3040.95988 75.0401198 5631.01958
40 3210 200025927.8302
3048.97879 161.02121
41 3243 3056.79968 186.200319
150034670.5589
42 3351 3064.4321 286.567902 82121.1623
1000

500

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2000

1500

1000
43 3305 3071.88491 233.115087 54342.644
500
44 3267 3079.16638 187.833617 35281.4678
45 3246 3086.28421 159.71579 025509.1335
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
46 3330 3093.24559 236.75441 56052.6509
47 3340 3100.05725 239.94275 57572.5233
48 3300 3106.7255 193.274504 37355.0338
Err:502 TOTAL 1501950.62
MSE 31290.6379
229

40 50 60
40 50 60
tiempo registros pronostico Error Error^2
1 2292 1985 307 94249
2 2450 2151.34516 298.654841 89194.7141
3 2363 2255.0402 107.959798 11655.3179
4 2477 2331.63022 145.369777 21132.3721
5 2063 2392.82495 -329.82495 108784.498
6 2358 2444.01502 -86.015024 7398.58432
7 2316 2488.14905 -172.14905 29635.297 Chart Title
8 2366 2527.02337 -161.02337 25928.5262 4000
9 2268 2561.81678 -293.81678 86328.3019
3500
10 2533 2593.34628 -60.346284 3641.67402
3000
11 2479 2622.20235 -143.20235 20506.9123 f(x) = 1985.0394497315 x^0.1160554308
12 2625 2648.82614 -23.826141 567.684992 2500
13 2616 2673.5563 -57.556302 3312.72792 2000
14 2793 2696.65865 96.3413486 9281.65545
1500
15 2656 2718.34582 -62.345824 3887.00181
1000
16 2746 2738.79068 7.20932142 51.9743153
17 2643 2758.13571 -115.13571 13256.2313 500
18 2811 2776.49982 34.5001846 1190.26273 0
0 10 20 30
19 2697 2793.98329 -96.983289 9405.75826
20 2736 2810.67152 -74.671523 5575.83641
21 2692 2826.63786 -134.63786 18127.3527
22 2871 2841.94576 29.0542439 844.149088
23 2900 2856.65052 43.3494773 1879.17718
24 2811 2870.80065 -59.800652 3576.11803
25 2497 2884.43891 -387.43891 150108.913
26 2792 2897.60323 -105.60323 11152.0418
27 2838 2910.32737 -72.327373 5231.24893
28 2780 2922.64158 -142.64158 20346.6201
29 2778 2934.57301 -156.57301 24515.1069
30 3066 2946.14616 119.853839 14364.9427
31 3213 2957.38322 255.616784 65339.9404
32 2928 2968.30432 -40.304316 1624.4379
33 2874 2978.92781 -104.92781 11009.8463
34 3000 2989.27048 10.7295199 115.122597
35 2913 2999.34768 -86.347677 7455.92135
36 2916 3009.17352 -93.17352 8681.30478
37 2910 3018.761 -108.761 11828.9561
38 3052 3028.12213 23.8778731 570.152825
39 3116 3037.26798 78.7320179 6198.73064
40 3210 3046.20885 163.791146 26827.5395
41 3243 3054.95429 188.045707 35361.188
42 3351 3063.51318 287.486816 82648.6692
43 3305 3071.89381 233.10619 54338.4959
44 3267 3080.1039 186.896099 34930.1517
45 3246 3088.15069 157.849311 24916.405
46 3330 3096.04094 233.959057 54736.8401
47 3340 3103.78102 236.218985 55799.4086
48 3300 3111.37687 188.623131 35578.6854
0 TOTAL 1313091.8
MSE 27356.0791
Chart Title

1985.0394497315 x^0.1160554308

10 20 30 40 50 60
POTENCIAL 14222.8586
CUADRATICO 14207.2448
EXPOTENCIAL 14330.9681
LOGARITMICO 31290.6379
POTENCIAL 27356.0791

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