Technological Forecasting

Introduction to Technology Forecasting

Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 1

 Contents
 Definitions of Technology Forecasting
 Why Technology Forecasting ?
 Model of Technology Forecasting
 Elements of Technology Forecasting
 Objectives of Technology Forecasting

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 Technology Forecasting
 Three definitions of technology forecasting
from leading experts

 Technology forecasting is
 A group of techniques that predict the
direction, character, rate, implication, and
impact of technological advances
-Vanston

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Technology Forecasting TF Intro - 4
 Technology Forecasting

 A prediction of the future characteristics of

useful machines, procedures, or techniques
-Martino

 Anticipation of the character, intensity, and

timing of changes in technology
-Porter

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 Why Technological Forecasting?
 It is Indispensable
 It improves Quality of Decision making
 Scanning the technological environment
 Anticipating emerging technological changes
 Identifying suitable technologies by
evaluating various alternatives
 Planning for future technology needs

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 Technological Forecasting Model
Viewed as a Input – Process – Output System

INPUTS
Forecasting PROCESS
Problems Forecasting OUTPUT
and process and Forecast
Objectives, Techniques
Data Inputs

REVIEW
 Elements of Technological Forecasting

1. Forecasting problems & objectives

2. Data inputs for forecasting
3. Forecaster
4. Forecasting process
5. Forecasting techniques
6. Forecast (output)
7. Review Mechanism

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 Objectives for Technology
Forecasting
 The first step in a technology
forecasting project is to determine the
purpose the forecast is to serve.
 Vanston suggests five purposes
 Projections of the rates at which new
technologies will replace older ones
 Important to companies dependent on the old
as well as the new technology

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 Objectives for Technology
Forecasting
 Assistance in the Management of Technical
Research and Development
 Forecasting the technology emergence process can
facilitate allocation of R&D resources
 Evaluation of the Present Value of Technology
Under Development
 Forecasting the commercial value of a technology
in the development process

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 Objectives for Technology
Forecasting
 Identification and Evaluation of New Products
or Processes that May Present the
Organization with New Opportunities or
Threats
 Forecasting new business opportunities or threats
to present markets

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 Objectives for Technology
Forecasting
 Analysis of New Technical Developments that
Might Change Organizational Strategies or
Operations
 Forecasting technology changes that might change
the internal operations of the organization itself.

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