PP 7767/09/2011(028730)

马来西亚
09 年 9 月 24 日
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

MARKET DATELINE

图表观察
2010 年 10 月 12 日

原棕油期货
原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil (CPO)
即将迈向 3,000 令吉至 3,300 令吉前进!

图 1∶
∶ 原棕油期货（
原棕油期货（CPO）
）（周线图）
线图）

原棕油期货 – 以一个突破缺口
一个突破缺口（
突破缺口（breakaway gap）
）发动一波
发动一波强劲
一波强劲突破
强劲突破!
突破

♦ 在我们昨日（2010 年 10 月 11 日）的“原产品和外汇”技术报告中，我们已提及原棕油期货可能会在近日大力突破
2,760 令吉主要技术阻力线。

♦ 同时，我们也指出，一旦成功突围，这标志着原棕油期货已成功摆脱自 2009 年底以来一直陷困于 2,500 令吉至 2,760 令

吉之间的交投区。

♦ 原棕油确实地在昨日以凌厉的姿态往上跳空，以 2,903 令吉报开，即远高于 2,760 令吉即日阻力水平（上周五的收盘）。

♦ 不止这样，尽管强大套利活动不断在午盘涌现，但该原产品还是成功在临尾冲高，并以 2,930 令吉挂收，即接近 2,940 令

吉全日最高点（请看图 1）。

♦ 有鉴于此，原棕油创下一根多头阳烛，并在 2,808 令吉至 2,886 令吉之间划出一根技术缺口。

♦ 技术而言，原棕油已在昨日以一根强劲的突破阳烛和一个巨大的突破缺口冲破了它在 2,500 令吉至 2,760 令吉之间所进行

将近 1 年的整盘走势。

♦ 这也符合了我们在周一报告中所提及的预测。

♦ 从看俏的动力解读，不断趋升的 10 周移动平均线（即 2,677 令吉）和多头突破形态看来，我们认为，原棕油将会在近期内

迈向下一道位于 3,000 令吉至 3,300 令吉之间的阻力区前进。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）。

Page 1 of 3
 2010 年 9 月 15 日

图 2∶
∶ 原棕油 费氏回调
费氏回调水平
回调水平（
水平（FR）
）

重返至
重返至牛市区域
牛市区域!
区域

♦ 根据图 2，自从原棕油在 2008 年 3 月从 4,486 令吉历史高峰掉头暴跌至 2008 年 10 月的 1,331 令吉谷底后，该原

产品一直处于“熊市区”，即低于费氏回调水平（Fibonacci Retracement level）的 50% FR 水平以下。

♦ 可是，昨日凌厉的涨势却显示原棕油又再有望超越该 50% FR 水平。从图表看来，原棕油昨日正恰好收在 50% FR 水

平上。

♦ 有鉴于此，假如它能冲破当前水平而进一步走高，那么它将会重返至 FR 图表的“牛市区域”。届时，这将能发动更多
涨势至靠近 3,280 令吉区域的 61.8% FR 水平，即接近 3,300 令吉阻力水平。

♦ 实际上，我们也不排除今日可能会即刻出现套利跌势，以回补昨日部分的技术缺口。但从该多头突破图表形态看来，我
们预期买盘动力将会在即日内进一步加强。

♦ 至于 2,760 令吉主要阻力转为支撑水平（resistance-turn-support level）和 10 周移动平均线（即 2,677 令吉）料

将为原棕油的较长期展望形成更强的扶持力。

Page 2 of 3
 2010 年 9 月 15 日

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.

Page 3 of 3