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Physics and Chemistry of the Earth

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/pce

the Earth journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/pce The study on ecological sustainable development in Chengdu

The study on ecological sustainable development in Chengdu

Yifan Li a , Jinyan Zhan a , * , Fan Zhang a , Miaolin Zhang b , Dongdong Chen c

a School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

b School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China

c Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430062, China

article info

Article history:

Received 23 May 2016 Received in revised form 10 February 2017 Accepted 2 March 2017 Available online xxx

Keywords:

Ecological footprint STELLA Ecological sustainable development System dynamics Chengdu

abstract

Ecological footprint is one of the important methods to study ecological sustainable development, but ecological footprint focuses on only the static calculation of ecological sustainable development and cannot dynamically predict its development. In this study, we combine ecological footprint with system dynamics software STELLA to construct a predictable model of ecological sustainable development. We introduce rate1 and rate2 into the model, which re ects the change in per capita consumption of bio- logical resources and energy due to the socio-economic development, and by changing the values of them to simulate a variety of scenarios. The results show that ecological sustainable development of Chengdu is in the state of ecological de cit, which is 1.43 million hm 2 in 2013, and different rate1 and rate2 will lead to different changes in the ecological de cit. When rate1 ¼ rate2 ¼ 0.1, the degree of ecological de cit in Chengdu is reduced from 1.43 million hm 2 to 1.24 million hm 2 in 2013 e 2018, and after 2018, it begins to increase, which will reach 1.32 million hm 2 in 2021. And when rate1 ¼ rate2 ¼ 0.05, the ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 will decrease gradually, which from 1.43 million hm 2 to 1.31 million hm 2 . These results re ect the impact of economic development on ecological sustainable development, and it can provide a reference for the balanced development of economic and ecological protection, which will help decision makers to do something for ecological sustainable development planning of Chengdu.

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Environment protection and sustainable development are the main hotspots at present ( Deng et al., 2016 ). The concept of sus- tainable development is commonly traced to the Bruntland Report in 1987 ( Harlow et al., 2013; Redclift, 2005 ), and since then more and more people put their eyes on research of ecological sustain- able development ( Verba and Ivanov, 2015 ). In the process of development, the city is facing a lot of risks, many scholars began to study how to realize ecological sustainable development of the city in order to solve these risks ( Campbell, 1996; Chiesura, 2004; Deng and Bai, 2014 ). Many methods have been used to study ecological sustainable development of a city, e.g., ecological network analysis ( Zhang et al., 2010 ), carbon footprint ( Ramaswami et al., 2012 ), and energy analysis ( Olaofe and Folly, 2013; Vollaro et al., 2014 ), which provide a great reference for the study of ecological sustainable development. But some experts consider ecological footprint as a

* Corresponding author. E-mail address: zhanjinyan.bnu@gmail.com (J. Zhan).

1474-7065/ © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

better method for analyzing sustainable development ( Coote, 2006; Du et al., 2006; Ferng, 2014; Li and Hou, 2011; Moffatt, 2000 ). The ecological footprint is a method that measures natural capital demand of human beings by evaluating the area of ecological productive land which is needed to meet the con- sumption pattern ( Wackernagel et al., 1999 ). The ecological foot- print was put forward by Rees (1995) , which was then improved by Wackernagel and Rees ( 1997 ). The ecological footprint reveals the relationship between the regional supply and demand of natural capital. It can make judgments on regional sustainable develop- ment by comparing human demand for natural capital and nature of renewable ability. The ecological footprint is also vividly likened to a footprint on the earth by a giant foot which is loaded with human and the things created by human, e.g., city and factory ( Haberl et al., 2001 ). When the earth cannot bear such a large footprint, it is not sustainable and is likely to collapse ( Li et al., 2016 ). Having a scienti c theoretical basis clear conceptual framework ( Bicknell et al., 1998 ) and a uni ed streamline index system ( Kitzes et al., 2009; Wang and Gao, 2002 ), the ecological footprint has been widely accepted by many experts and scholars,

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and now it has become a very popular determination method for quanti cation of ecological sustainable development ( Rees and Wackernagel, 1996 ). The traditional ecological footprint model can only calculate ecological footprint of past time and cannot predict the future ecological sustainable development. Many scholars have therefore turned their attention to the predictable model of ecological foot- print ( Ferng, 2014; Kitzes and Wackernagel, 2009 ). For example, they constructed ecological sustainable development forecasting model by combining the ecological footprint with gray prediction ( Gao and Xu, 2014 ), virtual ecological footprint ( Wei et al., 2013 ), system dynamics ( Jin et al., 2009 ), Arti cial Neural Network (ANN) and CA-Markov ( Wang et al., 2014 ). These methods point out the direction for dynamic prediction of ecological sustainable devel- opment, but little attention has been given to the effects of socio- economic development and population change. So our study aims to use the system dynamics method to construct ecological sus- tainable development forecasting model, which includes the socio- economic factors. System Dynamics (SD) is a method based on the system theory, which is an important branch of system science and management science ( Xia, 2009 ). Compared with other methods (gray predic- tion, virtual ecological footprint, ANN and CA-Markov), it can grasp the complex and nonlinear feedback of system, and make a good prediction ( Rashedi and Hegazy, 2016 ). Also, it can solve the problem of simultaneity (mutual causation) by updating all vari- ables in small time increments with positive and negative feed- backs and time delays structuring the interactions and control. And the most prominent advantage of it is to deal with the problem of high order, nonlinear, multiple feedback complex time-varying systems. STELLA is a system software based on the system dy- namics theory ( Costanza and Voinov, 2001 ), and it can predict the development of systems very well by setting different parameters in the dynamic prediction ( Wang and Zhu, 2007 ). The application of STELLA software can be a good solution to the existing problems in the current ecological footprint model, but few scholars have combined them up to now. Chengdu is an important central city in China, which plays an important role in the western development strategy and the Belt and Road Initiatives ( Taylor, 2014 ), and it is of great theoretical and practical signi cance to carry out the comprehensive evaluation of ecological sustainable development capacity in Chengdu. With Chengdu as the study area, this study combined the ecological footprint with the STELLA software to study ecological sustainable development. This study constructed a SD model of ecological footprint, which regards socio-economic development and people's living standards as impact parameter, to analyze and forecast ecological sustainable development of Chengdu.

2. Study area and data

2.1. Study area

Chengdu is located between 102 54 0 E-104 53 0 E and 30 05 0 N- 31 26 0 N, in the hinterland of the Chengdu Plain in the western part of Sichuan Basin ( Fig. 1 ). Chengdu is one of the most historically important cities in China. It is the capital city of Sichuan province, serving as a provincial political, industrial and cultural center and a major economic center for southwest China ( Qin, 2015 ). It has a sub-tropical climate, with the annual average temperatures of 15 e18 C, annual accumulated temperature above 10 C of 4500 e 5700 C, annual precipitation of about 1000 mm, and a non- frost period of 240-300 d. The annual sunshine hour is only 1000 e1600 h in Chengdu, which is one of the lowest value in China ( Zheng et al., 2010 ). Additionally, this region is an important

ecological buffer zone in the upper reaches of Yangtze River Basin, which has a certain impact on ecological balance of the Yangtze River Basin ( Peng et al., 2016 ). Chengdu is a typical mega city with an area of approximately 1.21 10 4 km 2 , which has 9 districts, 6 counties, and 4 county-level cities ( Chen et al., 2016 ). The population of Chengdu was 11.88 million, and its GDP was 910.89 billion Yuan in 2013, which ranked third in the sub provincial cities, second only to Guangzhou and Shenzhen. There is complex topography, diverse natural ecological environment and rich biological resources and mineral resources in Chengdu. However, associated rapid increases in resource con- sumption have caused resources inef ciencies ( Zhang et al., 2014 ). The con ict between economic development and environmental protection in Chengdu has become severe ( Peng et al., 2016 ). Thus, it is of signi cant theoretical and practical interest to choose Chengdu as the study area.

2.2. Data

Based on the traditional ecological footprint, this study added the socio-economic development and people's living standards data to make the model more accurate. The data used in this study can be categorized into four parts, i.e., land use data, biological resource consumption data, energy consumption data, population and economic development data of Chengdu. Except for land use data, all of these data can been found in the statistical yearbook of Chengdu in 2006 e 2014. The biological resource consumption data, energy consumption data, population data and economic devel- opment data was shown in Table 1. The land use data were extracted on the basis of the Landsat TM/ ETM images covering Chengdu city in 2005, 2009 and 2013, which were downloaded from the website of United States Geological Survey (USGS) ( Table 2 ). In this study, the method of human- computer interaction interpretation in ENVI software was used to interpret these remote sensing images. The land use of Chengdu was divided into ve categories, i.e., farmland, forest land, grass- land, water area and construction land ( Fig. 2 ). Finally, the spatial analysis tool and mathematical statistics tool in ArcGIS were used to get the land use change of transition probability matrix. In this part, it is worth noting that the original land use transfer matrix in this study is based on the land use data of 2005 e 2009, and we combined it with the land use data in 2009 to get the land use data of 2013 in Chengdu, which has slight difference with the real remote sensing data. It can be seen from the following table that the error in every land use type is less than 2% ( Table 3 ). Since the difference of land use transfer matrix prediction is small, the land use data of Chengdu in 2009 and 2013 can be used to get the new transfer matrix and predict the land use data during 2013 e 2017 and 2017 e2021.

3. Methodology

3.1. Calculation model of ecological footprint

Ecological footprint can be divided into two parts, the supply of ecological footprint and the demand of ecological footprint. The supply of ecological footprint also can be seen as ecological carrying capacity, which usually refers to the maximum population that can be carried for an organism, given a certain quantity of food, habitat, water and other life infrastructure present ( Rees, 1996; Xu et al., 2010 ). And in this paper, it means the maximum area of produc- tive land that Chengdu can provide. The demand of ecological footprint in this paper means the productive land area needed by the whole population in Chengdu under the certain living standard. The supply of ecological footprint was calculated as follows.

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Fig. 1. Location of Chengdu.

Table 1 The socio-economic and living standards data of Chengdu in 2013. a

Index

Value

Index

Value

Per capita consumption of biological resources data Grain (kg) Vegetable oil (kg) Pork (kg) Poultry (kg) Milk (kg) Vegetable (kg) Fruit (kg) Egg (kg) Red meat (kg) Aquatic products (kg) Tea (kg) Economic development data GDP (billion Yuan) Primary industry (billion Yuan) Secondary industry (billion Yuan) Tertiary Industry (billion Yuan)

73.70

Energy consumption data Raw coal (t) Washed coal (t) Other washed coal (t) Coal products (t) Coke (t) Natural gas (million m 3 ) Gasoline (t) Kerosene (t) Diesel (t) Fuel oil (t) Lique ed petroleum gas (t) Other petroleum products (t) Heat (million KJ) Electricity (million KWh) Population data Total population Rural population Urban population

5 616 379.34 108 231.05 91 716.53 26 201.35 803 173.50

9.16

30.46

9.47

19.20

97.43

2610.17

20.25

33 481.92

6.29

17 618.52

2.53

61 564.85

4.20

417.15

0.39

401.02

910.89

89 949.32 2 760 147.50 16 841.91

35.32

418.15

 

457.42

11 879 900.00 4 592 800.00 7 287 100.00

a Note: All of these data are from the statistical yearbook of Chengdu in 2014.

 

Table 2 Details of Landsat TM/ETM data in this study.

 

Year

Filename of Landsat TM/ETM images

 

2005

LT51290392005104BJC00

LT51300382005189BJC00

LT51300392005253BJC00

2009

LE71290392009123SGS00

LE71300382009226EDC00

LE71300392009242SGS00

2013

LE71290392013022EDC00

LE71300382013221PFS00

LE71300392013141EDC00

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et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (2017) 1 e 9 Fig. 2.

Fig. 2. Land use of Chengdu in 2005, 2009 and 2013.

Table 3 Area of prediction and interpretation in 2013.

Land use type

Area of prediction (hm 2 )

Area of interpretation (hm 2 )

Error size (%)

Farmland

643 142.68

638 567.68

0.72

Forest land

281 003.98

284 809.83

1.34

Grass land

64 720.44

65 893.74

1.78

Water area

19 391.14

19 391.46

0.00

Construction land

203 874.16

203 469.68

0.20

n

EC ¼ X ð a i r i y i Þ

i¼ 1

(1)

where EC is the supply of ecological footprint; i is the type of productive land including farmland, forest land, grassland, water

area and construction land; a i is the area of ecologically productive with land type i; r i is the corresponding equilibrium factor for all kinds of land; y i is the corresponding yield factor for all kinds of land. At the same time, 12% of the biodiversity conservation area should be deducted when calculating the ecological footprint supply. The calculation formula of the demand of ecological footprint is:

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rate of population is smaller than 0.8%, the natural growth rate of

population holds 0.8%, and when the urbanization rate is smaller than 65%, the natural growth rate of population keeps 0.6%. This assumption may be controversial, but in order to ensure that the population growth rate is not unlimited increase, we have to do it. The second part is ecological footprint supply model, which is shown as follows ( Fig. 5 ). And it is based on the land use data in 2009 e 2013. In this part, we use remote sensing to get the land use data, and use GIS to get the transfer matrix of it. The data in transfer matrix of land use is converted to transfer percentage, and the land change rate was put into the model in order to get the STELLA model of land use change in Chengdu ( Zhan et al., 2010 ). In this part, Tij means the percentage of land use of i line and j column in the transfer matrix; ma, mb, mc, md, and me is the corresponding coef cients of each land use type (GD, LD, CD, SY, and JSYD), which is obtained by multiplying the corresponding equilibrium factor and the corresponding yield factor; GD, LD, CD, SY, and JSYD are farmland, forest land, grassland, water area, and construction land, respectively. And in the nal accounting of the supply of ecological footprint, we deduct 12% of the biodiversity conservation area. When setting the model of biological resource consumption and energy consumption, we considered the factors of economic development, and we draw two rate of change (rate1 and rate2) into the model, which re ect the change of per capita consumption of resources brought by the social and economic development and the improvement of people's living standards. In this part, we assume that, with the increase of time, economic development and people's living standards is rising, and the lifting speed is consistent every year. Also, the upgrade for each com- modity consumption change of speed is the same. That is the in- crease rate of A commodity consumption and reduction rate of B commodity consumption is consistent from the change of eco- nomic and living standards. On those basis, according to the positive and negative correla- tion in consumption biological and energy with the economic growth rate in the statistical yearbook of Chengdu in 2006 e 2014, we qualitatively assume that with the economic development and improved of living standards, the consumption of grain, vegetable oil, pork, sugar, meat and wood is decreased, the vegetables, eggs, beef and mutton, fresh fruit, milk and all the energy consumption is increased on the whole. Based on the above assumptions, the prediction model of biological resources and energy consumption in Chengdu is constructed, and we can see it in Fig. 6 . Furthermore, YM, XJM, QTXM, MZP, JT, TRQ, QY, MY, CY, RLY, YHSYQ, QTSYZP, RL, and DL are raw coal, washed coal, other washed coal, coal products, coke, natural gas, gasoline, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, lique ed pe- troleum gas, other petroleum products, heat, and electricity, respectively. And Di means the demand for each biological resource or energy, Gi means the average production capacity of per capita consumption of good.

c j

EF ¼ N ef ¼ N X aa j ¼ N X p j

(2)

where EF is the demand of ecological footprint, N is the number of the population; ef is the demand of per capita ecological footprint; aa j is the conversion area of bio production which from per capita

trade; c j is per capita consumption of all goods; p j is average pro- duction capacity of per capita consumption of good; j is types of consumer goods and inputs. If EF is bigger than EC, it will show the ecological surplus, and if

EF is less than EC, the ecological de cit will appear. The regional

ecological surplus or ecological de cit re ects the utilization of

regional population on natural resources.

3.2. Model construction

The model construction of this study is mainly based on the

software of STELLA, which is made up of four modeling basic building blocks. The rst is Stock, which is the most basic building blocks for modeling, and it is used to indicate any amount that can

be accumulated. The second is Flow, which represents the activity,

and it can change the amount of stock in the system. The third is Converter, which contains the equations that produce the output values for each time period, and it also receives information and transfers it to other variables in the model frequently. Of course, Converters are also used to store constants. And the fourth is Connector, which looks like a line, and it is used to transmit in-

formation and adjust the ow of input. All of the building blocks are shown as follows ( Fig. 3 ). In this study, we considered the population, land, resources, economy and other factors comprehensively to build ecological sustainable development model of Chengdu, which includes three parts. The rst part is the population model, which is shown as follows ( Fig. 4 ). It is based on the population trends over the years in Chengdu, and considering the migration and transformation of urban and rural population, and adding the urbanization rate as the stable factor of model, which would give us a population prediction

of Chengdu. In this part, the total population of Chengdu in 2013 is 1.19

million, and the urbanization rate is 61.34%. According to the sta- tistical yearbook of Chengdu in 2006 e 2014, the population natural growth rate is Y ¼ 0.01248 e 0.00056*TIME, and the rate of urban population transfer from rural population is

Y ¼ 0.0042*TIME þ 0.0016. In order to ensure the sustainable

development of population, we assume that if the natural growth

of population, we assume that if the natural growth 4. Results In the model, we assumed

4. Results

In the model, we assumed that rate1 ¼ rate2 ¼ 0.1 and rate1 ¼ rate2 ¼ 0.05, we got ecological sustainable development prediction results of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 as follows ( Fig. 7 ). There is a big ecological de cit in Chengdu ( Fig. 7 ), no matter how much the rate1 and rate2 are. When the rate1 ¼ rate2 ¼ 0.1, the ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2018 is decreasing gradually, which is from 1.43 million hm 2 to 1.24 million hm 2 . And when the time after 2018, the ecological de cit of it will begin to increase. In 2021, the ecological de cit come to 1.32 million hm 2 . That is, in accordance with the status of land use and the per capita Fig. 3. The symbols of four basic blocks in STELLA. living standards to enhance the level of 10% per year in Chengdu,

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et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (2017) 1 e 9 Fig. 4.

Fig. 4. STELLA model of population.

Earth xxx (2017) 1 e 9 Fig. 4. STELLA model of population. Fig. 5. STELLA model

Fig. 5. STELLA model of ecological footprint supply.

the ecological de cit of Chengdu will begin to gradually increase from 2018. Also, when the rate1 ¼ rate2 ¼ 0.05, the ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 is decreasing gradually, which is from 1.43 million hm 2 to 1.31 million hm 2 . Therefore, if the per capita living standards to enhance the level of 5% per year in Chengdu, the ecological de cit of it will continues to decline. According to this trend analysis, Chengdu ecological de cit will reach the minimum in 2022 with 1.31 million hm 2 , followed by a gradual rise ( Fig. 8 ). According to results that every one percentage point increase in GDP, energy consumption increased conclusions 1.46% from Liu and

Lu (2007), and on the basis of the level of economic development in Chengdu over the years and China's economic development status of the new normal ( Yu and Zhang, 2015 ), we assumed that eco- nomic growth of Chengdu is 7.00% per year. That is, the energy consumption of Chengdu is 10.21% per year. It is very close to what we have previously assumed that rate1 ¼ rate2 ¼ 0.1, so we can take this situation as the prediction model of ecological sustainable development in Chengdu. In this model, we introduce the rate1 and rate2 innovatively, which re ect the change of per capita consumption of biological resources and energy brought by the social and economic

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et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (2017) 1 e 9 7 Fig.
et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (2017) 1 e 9 7 Fig.

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Fig. 6. STELLA model of demand for biological resource and energy.

STELLA model of demand for biological resource and energy. Fig. 7. The ecological deficit of Chengdu
Fig. 7. The ecological deficit of Chengdu in 2013e 2021.
Fig. 7. The ecological deficit of Chengdu in 2013e 2021.

Fig. 8. The ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013e 2029 when rate1 ¼ rate2 ¼ 0.05.

development and the improvement of people's living standards. And we set the rate1 ¼ 0.1 or rate2 ¼ 0.1, and analysis the sensitivity of the rate2 or rate1, respectively ( Fig. 9 , Fig. 10 ). Different rate2 lead to different ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 ( Fig. 9 ). When rate2 ¼ 0, rate2 ¼ 0.025 and rate2 ¼ 0.5, the ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 are both reduced, which is from 1.43 million hm 2 to 0.86 million hm 2 , to 0.95 million hm 2 and to 1.05 million hm 2 , respectively. When rate2 ¼ 0.075, the ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 is decrease and then increase, which reduced from 1.43 million hm 2 in 2013 to 1.16

which reduced from 1.43 million hm 2 in 2013 to 1.16 Fig. 9. The ecological de

Fig. 9. The ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e2021 when rate2 is different.

fi cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 when rate2 is different. Fig. 10. The ecological

Fig. 10. The ecological decit of Chengdu in 2013e 2021 when rate1 is different.

million hm 2 in 2020, and then increased to 1.17 million hm 2 in 2021. When rate2 ¼ 0.1, the ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 is also decrease and then increase, which reduced from 1.43 million hm 2 in 2013 to 1.24 million hm 2 in 2018, and then increased to 1.32 million hm 2 in 2021. And from the trend point of view, the smaller the rate2, the longer the duration of the ecological de cit reduction. For example, when rate2 ¼ 0.1, the ecological de cit has been reduced in 2013 e 2018, and when rate2 ¼ 0.075, the ecological

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de cit has been reduced in 2013 e 2020. It means that with the decrease of energy consumption growth rate, the ecological de cit showed a downward trend. And the faster the reduction of energy consumption growth rate is, the more obvious the decline in ecological de cit are. Different rate1 lead to different ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 ( Fig. 10 ). When rate1 ¼ 0, rate1 ¼ 0.025 and rate1 ¼ 0.5, the ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 are both increasing, which is from 1.43 million hm 2 to 2.06 million hm 2 , to 1.79 million hm 2 and to 1.58 million hm 2 , respectively. When rate1 ¼ 0.075 and rate1 ¼ 0.1, the ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 are decrease and then increase, which reduced from 1.43 million hm 2 in 2013 to 1.34 million hm 2 and 1.24 million hm 2 in 2018, and then increased to 1.43 million hm 2 and 1.32 million hm 2 in 2021, respectively. It means that with the increase of rate1, which re ects the changes in dietary composition of residents caused by eco- nomic growth and the improvement of living standards, the growth rate of ecological de cit showed a downward trend after 2013, even when the rate1 increased to a certain level, the ecological de cit began to show a downward trend. Additionally, Chengdu is an important city in China, and it plays an important role in China's western development strategy and the Belt and Road Initiatives . In the process of economic devel- opment, Chengdu is facing more serious ecological problems, and how to protect ecological sustainable development of Chengdu has become an important research. All of these study show that Chengdu has a de cit in ecological ( Peng et al., 2016; Yin et al., 2015 ). The same is true of this study. From the results of it, we know that there is a big ecological de cit in Chengdu, which means that the current ecological situation in Chengdu is not optimistic. In terms of the current development model in Chengdu, regardless of how the economic growth rate and living standards change, its ecological de cit in a short time will be reduced, but still dif cult to completely eliminate. It is gratifying that the results re ect the existence of Chengdu's ecological de cit may decline, which will encourage us to continue to conduct a more in-depth study of ecological sustainability in Chengdu.

5. Conclusion

In this study, in terms of the traditional ecological footprint method has some shortcomings in the prediction of ecological sustainable development. We construct ecological sustainable development forecast model based on the system dynamics soft- ware STELLA and the ecological footprint. The results show that there is a large ecological de cit in Chengdu, which is 1.43 million hm 2 in 2013, and it is necessary to strengthen ecological restoration and construction. At the same time, we introduce the factors (rate1 and rate2) that re ect change factors caused by economic growth and the improvement of people's living standards in the model, and through the simulation of different scenarios, we get that the different rate1 and rate2 lead different ecological de cit. When the rate1 ¼ rate2 ¼ 0.1, the degree of ecological de cit in Chengdu was reduced from 1.43 million hm 2 to 1.24 million hm 2 in 2013 e 2018. And after 2018, it began to increase, which is 1.32 million hm 2 in 2021. And when the rate1 ¼ rate2 ¼ 0.05, the ecological de cit of Chengdu in 2013 e 2021 is decreasing gradually, which is from 1.43 million hm 2 to 1.31 million hm 2 . This result shows that we cannot completely eliminate the ecological de cit in Chengdu, but in a short time we can reduce it. It means that we can take some measures to maintain ecological sustainable development of Chengdu. Also, the results show that the model has good prediction ability. Compared with other methods, the method adopted in this model takes into account the in uence of socio-economic factors,

which is more objective and scienti c. It can well re ect the sus- tainable development of Chengdu in the future. In the construction of the model and the simulation of the scene, we know that to achieve ecological sustainable development of Chengdu, we can take two measures. On the one hand, we can achieve ecological sustainable development of ecological environ- ment by reducing the speed of economic development. On the other hand, we can reduce the amount of energy consumed which is increased by economic development, or guide the dietary structure of residents by any other means to reduce consumption of biological resources. Obviously, the rst method seems to have a lot of limitations and unrealistic. So we can improve energy ef ciency to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP. And also, we can take measures to change the dietary structure of residents by guiding price or other ways, which would reduce the per capita consumption of biological resources. Of course, this article has some shortcomings. Firstly, due to the lack of data, the in uence of industrialization is not taken into ac- count in the selection of the factors affecting the sustainable development of Chengdu, which may have a certain impact on ecological sustainable development of Chengdu. Secondly, the hy- pothesis of STELLA model for biological resources and energy de- mand are still to be veried. Finally, and also most importantly, there are no exact values of rate1 and rate2, which were introduced into the model. If the exact values of them can be obtained through research, it will be very helpful for the prediction of ecological sustainable development model in Chengdu.

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the research funds from state key program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71533004).

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