FRIDAY 27th July 2018

In the name of Allah

Yemeni’s gain upper hand in war
The top of the list in international affairs is the Yemen war. This
war has prolonged and the attacking ones want to make this
reach to some decisive point either in the battle field or
through negotiations or one by one exiting from the war. The
way Qatar has quietly walked out of this battle and other
nations like UAE is also intending to quietly separate from this
war. Eventually all the nations will get out and Ale Saud will be
pursed to exit. The main reason is that they do not see any
possibility of winning this battle. This is because Yemeni war
has defeated them on every front. Specifically the Hudaydah battle has proven that the war with Yemen is not easy
and they are losing more and the battle is going more in the favor of Yemeni warriors.

One example of that is they have done a drone attack on Abu Dhabi airport, which has panicked them. First they were
launching missiles but now they have gone forward into technology by using unmanned drones, and this technology
has come in the hands of Yemeni forces and they are using it. This has changed the balance of war. The think tank of
Saudi is serious now that this war is not in their favor. The other thing they have done is that Yemeni’s have attacked
a Saudi Ship in Babul Mandab which is a canal on the oil route. It’s one end meets the Indian Ocean and Sea of Oman
junction; and along with that this strait connects the Red Sea with Indian Ocean Sea. This is amongst the few key sea
routes. On one hand is Babul Mandab and Suez Canal is an important source of income for Egypt. The energy of Middle
East, oil and gas is transported from Red Sea and specifically the Suez Canal. Since Babul Mandab is with Yemen’; they
have warned the ships passing through this route that they can come under attack. They did the first attack to prove
their words on Saudi Ship and Saudi has stopped its ship from this route after being afraid. This is effecting the oil
prices and if the Yemeni war spreads into the sea then not just Ale Saud and Arab nations but all countries buying and

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selling oil will get affected. In the Yemen war, the Yemenis are in much better position. They have got approach to the
new means of technology. It is very astonishing that they are besieged from all directions but still the weapons are
reaching Yemen, that too missiles and drone.

Syrian army take over Golan Heights

In Syrian war also there is important progress; the last positions of
terrorists have been finished by Syrian forces and every day they
are clearing areas under terrorists. One recent progress is the area
near Golan heights where the terrorists have made an important
places of refuge is also now under Syrian control. In one area ISIS
along with American have made a reply operation in which also the
losses have been on people. This was the first operation of ISIS
after a long time. America is making full efforts to protect this
capital and use them. They are providing all types of logistics
support and supplying weapons to them.

Iraq crisis enhancing

The crisis in Iraq is ongoing and becoming more serious
with no agreement reached on forming the government.
There are some or the other obstacles in the path of
formation of government. There is no party having single
majority seats to form the government. The alliance,
forums that are being formed are also not stable with a lot
of foreign intervention. The country that is interfering the
most inside Iraq is Saudi Arabia. First they were influencing
the Sunni population and have formed terrorists groups
but now they are buying Shia groups and getting their
support to use them against Iran which has created all this complex situation. Due to this political instability the living
needs problems are coming on people; like no electricity, water and people are adding to political instability. If these
issues enhance and political stability is not achieved then this can reach the stage of civil war. The same political
disagreements that are there between the parties can turn into armed conflicts. This is because all the groups are
armed and they have this readiness. Similarly there is a lot of penetration of Europe and America in Iraq as well. The
biggest objective of America and Saudi is to get Iranian influence and penetration out from Iraq. They want to do the
same in Syria and Yemen; the way Iran has full control of Hezbollah in Lebanon they want to keep Iran away from Iraq.
The want to keep Iran away from all Arab nations. The American pressure on Iran is also for this reason. First they had
this fear that Iran should not export their revolution to these nations and now when Iran has entered into this countries
they are doing all the activities to keep Iran out from Iraq. There are other elements also but all those together combine
towards this main aim to keep Iran out from Iraq.

Atrocities increase in Gaza and Kashmir

In Gaza, Israel is continuously bombarding and attacking them. With the help
of Egypt, Jordan they decided on some peace but Israel does not abide by it
and continuously bombing the unarmed people of Palestine. The way Ale
Saud is after destruction of Yemen, similarly the Israelis in much more
aggressive manner are destroying Gaza and Palestine. There is complete
silence on this from Islamic states and there is no voice in favor of Palestine
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apart from Iran and Hezbollah. The same state of Gaza is being repeated by India in Kashmir. The atrocities are ongoing
in Kashmir and every day some incident is happening and the believers in Kashmir are victim of aggression from India.
There also there is no voice raised for them in their favor. The global institutes are also not speaking for Kashmir.

Trump’s threats makes Roohani Revolutionary

America has started certain type of wars. In Middle East they
have a fundamental role in all crisis. They are creating fear in
Arabs against Iran. In order to tackle Iran they are putting
restrictions on Iran and trying to lobby international institutes
creating panic in Iran. They are taking compensation from
Arab states for all this. With China the tensions are increasing.
As Trump has announced for trade war with everyone in the
world. First he has opened two fronts in this trade war with
China and European Union by applying taxes on goods coming
from China and Europe to America. This means these things
will become expensive in America and hence the demand for these goods will reduce in the American market and this
will give an economic impact on China and Europe. With this he has also included Turkey as well. America has applied
pressure on certain countries more on oil imports from Iran. Though he has threatened everyone to stop buying oil
from Iran by November this year. They should not be also selling to Iran all what they have been doing. In November
America is going to impose new sanctions on Iran and all those countries who work with Iran will also come under
secondary sanctions. In lieu of this many Europe companies have stepped out.

This was a big mistake by Iranian government from the beginning of the nuclear agreement. This was a wrong step
which they took as a result of wrong analysis. After the nuclear agreement rather than giving more opportunity to
independent nations they gave more business to European companies. In a way they enticed them that Iranian market
is open for you and thus they wanted to make them their companions and gain their sympathy. The result has been
that European companies have come under American pressure and have terminated their agreements with Iran. Many
companies have left Iran and some are waiting for their agreements to end and then they will walk out. At that time
when the nuclear agreement was done, and some relaxation was given; then Iran should have given more
opportunities to independent nations to come and invest their capital instead they gave opportunities to slave
countries of America and this was a big mistake which Iranian economists did and the outcome of that can be seen
now, that all those European nations are leaving all agreements and are also bearing losses.

They should have done more agreements with China, Russia, India, and Turkey who are independent nations who look
at their own interests and not America. If their interest is with Iran they will trade with Iran and if with America they
deal with America. If they would have been given more opportunity it would have been better. In this Turkey was also
there who was buying oil. All the others who were under American influence. Korea and Japan were big customers
who left buying oil from Iran. The big oil customers left out for Iran are China, India and Turkey. America has now put
more pressure on these three countries; India, China and Turkey as well to stop buying oil from Iran. If they do this,
then Iran will not be able to sell oil and as their economy is oil dependent, the economy will fall. As such due to
restrictions the economy of Iran is under trouble and if the oil exports stop from Iran then whatever Trump desires
becomes a possibility. That is if the oil economy of Iran stops then God forbid the economy of Iran will become zero
and then it will become unbearable for people and people will raise in rebellion against the government and situation
would become dangerous. The rebellion which Trump desires can then become practical. This is his attempt.

Against this attempt of Trump, China has given a blunt reply that we are independent and we will trade with
whomsoever we want and we will not listen to your dictation. They only go after their own interests. At present it is
in interest of China to buy cheaper oil from Iran. Similarly Turkey also said we are free in our trade and will not listen

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to America. Turkey is buying Gas also from Iran and during winter they need more energy from Iran and also being an
industrial nation they need energy. It is not that Turkey is the partner of Iran or likes Iran because the biggest trade
partner of Turkey is Israel. India is also a trading nation who only cares for their interests. Amongst all these trading
nations India is the shrewdest as they do not buy oil from Iran but instead take oil free taking advantage of their
situation. India wants to make some ports in Iran for their own benefit but not giving anything to Iran. America has
warned India also to buy oil and India is in a difficult situation now to take a decision as they keep on buying oil from
secret routes.

There is open enmity between Iran and America which was there since revolution but now there is open public enmity
being expressed with Trump. Trump has broken the nuclear agreement and trying to apply restrictions on Iran. This
action of Trump has given some positive effects on Iran. The first big effect was on President Roohani, who has his
second tenure. In both the tenures his policy was not revolutionary and there was conflict between him and the
Leader. He was presenting very soft, smiling diplomacy, just and moderate in front of West. He said also that he wants
to do a smiling politics. His Foreign minister would go there and smile, and he would be soft, smiling on various issues
coming from west. This was his raw thought that this way Europeans and West will become their friends. He was giving
this impression that due to revolution and tough policies of Leader Iran has been cut off from the world but now is the
time for friendship. He made this atmosphere which was very harmful. He did the nuclear agreement and considered
this as a big success by rolling back his atomic plans. The Europeans took the opposite effects and considered Iran as
weak and Iran cannot show resistance, perseverance in front of them. And now they need Europe and America support
and cannot survive. They are just filthy people that whenever they see a nation weak they dominate. They adopted
more hardness and stubbornness.

Iran said we agreed on nuclear and atomic, they came back said that you stop your missiles program, then shut down
IRGC, and then support to Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestine. They kept all these proposals and then the most shameful
thing which Trump said was to end the Wilayat e Faqeeh system in Iran and make it like American democracy. Then
also Roohani thought that we can show a merciful face of Islam to them. And Trump pounced on them. When trump
has shown his beastly nature, this impression has ended in Iran that they cannot become soft without smiles. They are
very filthy which the Leader has said from before that they are not worth negotiating and they will deceive. But they
had made the situation at that time as the Leader wants to put the nation into hardness and President Roohani wants
to develop the nation. Thus Leader said you experiment and see and the outcome was the same as now. Now they
changed their tone and want to cut off Iran from the entire world.

First they were taking support from UN but now Russia, China are with Iran. Now America has only got out of this
agreement and they alone want to paralyze Iran and this system
of Wilayat e Faqeeh in Iran. For this he is threatening on
everything and the most important step he wants to take is to
end all oil exports from Iran. As a result President Roohani has
become revolutionary; we don’t know if this is temporary or will
remain forever. The Leader has been saying that our survival is
with the revolutionary spirit and the day we leave the path of
revolution we will die. This is what they did, they did this
foolishness and America came on their head. Now the President
has given a revolutionary statement, and it is the first time he has given such a strong statement. Prior to this he has
given all weak, loose, timid and cowardly statements with pragmatism. It is the first with extreme courage he has
threatened trump that if Iranian oil does not gets sold, then the oil of any country will not get sold. This was an
earthquake, blast across the world which President Roohani did and this was appreciated by everyone in the country.

Then when trump replied and threatened to destroy Iran. The commander general of IRGC, Qassem Solaymani replied
to him that you don’t need to talk to our President, I am enough for you. Iran has a very strong strategic positon with
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them that is Strait of Hormuz. This strait is that sea are which is quite narrow around 20, 21 kms. It is the same like
Babul Mandab which is also a strait. Since this is a strait, and the depth of the sea is in the center, it is easy to close.
Since the shores are near, then even ordinary weapons can become danger to the ships passing through. Even if forces
or ordinary persons start to fire on these ships, then no ship can pass through this. President Roohani said that if Iran
is stopped from selling oil then it is not that Arab nations can sell. He said it is not that only Strait of Hormuz which we
will close, there are many other straits which we can close. Babul Mandab is the Strait under Yemen control which
ends up in Suez Canal at the other end. In Yemen there are Iranian sitting and they have not just threatened but have
practically taken a step to bring down a Saudi Ship. As a result of this Saudi has stopped using the Red sea, due to
which oil shortage will come across the world and inflation will go.

Sipah e Quds, is the force that fights outside Iran. General Qassem Solaymani threatening that I will fight with you,
Trump. The commander of IRGC is General Jafri, but the statement was given General Qassem Solaymani, this means
this war will be fought outside Iran. It would be fought on American posts outside in Arab states. American bases are
there in Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and they have embassies and other bases in these countries. General Qassem
Solaymani Coming out in the field means this war can start and if this proceeds then all the trading routes will stop.
The Suez Canal which is also the life line for the trading routes. Since Iranians want to go outside and do something
which means they can do anything. America and everyone has taken this very seriously. As such the Red sea was a
dangerous route due to Somali pirates and they have made the routes insecure. But IRGC has high experience and it
is an organized force with their wings as Hezbollah and Yemen. They are telling America that you will come here and
do aerial attack. This is the current position and the most positive thing which Imam and Leader says is that these
threats and hard steps of enemies against us is always positive for us. The first effect is on President Roohani that he
has left his disgraceful smiling attitude and become revolutionary and told him that we will disgrace you in a such
manner that no one will dare to think to confront us so do not step on lions tale. The track on which President Roohani
was bringing in more dangers but Trumps actions and statements have made him revolutionary. This is good that
though he could not become revolutionary with Leader’s guidance but has become revolutionary with Trumps
threatening.

The same pressure of America is also on Turkey and Turkey has refused. America has warned Turkey that we will put
heavy taxes on the goods coming from Turkey to America. In reply Turkey has said we will also apply taxes on goods
coming from America. The way China has started a trade war with America. In Europe sitting in the EU gathering Trump
has announced that EU is our enemy and Europeans are also regretting that his crazy person is about to drown them
and they also want to get rid of them. But all these have common enmity with revolution even though they have rifts
amongst themselves. Like at present German Chancellor is very upset on Trump; France President has opposed Trump
severely but when the enmity of Iran comes they all unite. This is the situation of the war and new possibility of changes
are there in upcoming days to see in which direction this goes.

Uniqueness in Pakistan Elections

This analysis is long and is covered as a separate article available at www.politicalmarkaz.com

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