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In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
12 November 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The United Conservative Party continues to hold a
significant lead over the governing NDP.
Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten
provincial polls. The poll surveyed 936 Albertans between November 2nd to 3rd. The poll
has a margin of error of +/- 3.27% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“The needle has not moved much for either the UCP and NDP since we last polled in July,”
said Joseph Angolano, Vice President of Mainstreet Research. “The UCP still hold a large lead
over the NDP.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP led by Jason Kenney currently enjoy just over
54% support while the NDP have 29.1% support. The Alberta Party with Stephen Mandel at
the helm have 5.5%. The Liberals led by David Khan are at 5.2%, and the Greens have 2.7%
support. The new Freedom Conservative Party comes in with 2.5%.
“The Wildrose and the PCs garnered a total of 52% of the vote in the last election, and the
UCP today has 54.3%”, continued Angolano. “This indicates that UCP support is most likely
an aggregate of pre-existing support for the two former small-c conservative parties.”
The poll also found that Albertans have a positive view of Kenney compared to Notley. While
respondents have +14.3% net favourability rating of Kenney, Notley has a -20% rating.
“Even though Kenney is seen more favourably than Notley by Albertans, he is polling
considerably behind his party,” Angolano added, “This indicates that the UCP lead is likely
not driven by leader popularity.”
The poll also found that a 49.9% of Calgarians do not support an Olympics 2026 bid, with
10.8% saying that they are undecided.
-30-
9.8%
0.6%
2.3%
26.3%
4.7%
2.2%
4.1%
All Voters
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
49.9%
9.8%
0.6% 0.7%
2.3% 2.7%
5.5% 26.3%
NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative
4.7% 2.5%
4.1%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
49.9%
54.3%
13.2%
16.3%
3.7% 31.3%
7.2%
45.4%
31.1%
51.8%
David Khan
19.5%
41.6%
David Khan
Rachel Notley
Stephen Mandel Derek Fildebrandt
31.5%
13.2%
34.1%
37.2%
Rachel Notley
Stephen Mandel Derek Fildebrandt 33.2%
22.6%
51.8%
25.4% 24.2%
11.1%
40.4%
Calgary respondents
48.4%
(the order of the next five questions were What is your gender?
randomized) Male
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable Female
opinion of Rachel Notley?
Favourable opinion What is your age group?
Unfavourable opinion 18 to 34 years of age
Not sure 35 to 49 years of age
Not familiar with Rachel Notley 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Jason Kenney?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Jason Kenney
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between November 2nd
and 3rd, 2018 among a sample of 896 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population
of Alberta.
This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.
The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing and respondents were dialed at
random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.27% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.18%, Females: +/- 5.26%,
18-34 age group: +/- 7.22%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.8%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.8%, 65+ age
group: +/- 8.28%, Calgary +/- 6.03%, Edmonton, 6.1%, Rest of Alberta: +/- 5.26%.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.