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UltraPoll - Manitoba
Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
15th November 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted between November three levels of government, President and CEO
3rd to November 5th, 2018 among a sample Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
of 735 adults, 18 years of age or older, living international public affairs.
in Manitoba. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from random was the only polling firm to correctly predict
digit dialing. a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
Research and was not sponsored by a third elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
party. special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Opinion Research and meets international and
3.61% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Canadian publication standards.
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
“The Pallister PCs hold a solid lead over the NDP despite losing two points since
we last polled in August,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet
Research. “The big mover in our poll is Dougald Lamont and the Liberals as
they have climbed five points”
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs have 42.3% (-2.6% from our previous
August release), while the NDP led by Wab Kinew come in with 28.7% support
(-0.5%). The Liberals with Lamont at the helm currently enjoy 18.1% (+4.5%),
and the Greens with James Bedomme as leader have 6% (-2.7%).
The poll also asked Manitobans about their impressions of the party leaders.
While every leader scored a net negative favourability rating, Wab Kinew had
the best score with -5.5%.
-30-
17.9%
35.1%
1.5%
2.5%
5.1%
All Voters
14.3%
18.1%1.5% 35.1%
42.3%
2.5%
14.3%
28.7% 23.6%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party Undecided
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
an Pallister Wab Kinew
21.6%
23.9%
26%
32%
6.4%
Brian Pallister Wab Kinew
14.7% 29.4%
Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
13.3%
40.9%
18.2%
Dougald Lamont
21.6% 12.9%
26%
33.3%
40.7%
39.8%
20.8%
45.9%
Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 35.1% 42.6% 27.8% 35.2% 34.4% 33.2% 38.4% 46.3% 28.3%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 23.6% 19.3% 27.9% 19.3% 25.5% 25.7% 25.1% 18.2% 26.9%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.5% 13.3% 14.9% 14.6% 9.9% 17%
Greens led by James Bedomme 5.1% 5% 5.2% 4.5% 6% 6.2% 3.5% 5.3% 5%
Manitoba Party, led by Steven Fletcher 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 3.7% 1.7% 2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.8%
Another Party 1.5% 2.6% 0.3% 2% 1.2% 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 2%
Undecided 17.9% 13.4% 22.1% 20.9% 17.9% 17.1% 14.2% 17.6% 18%
Unweighted Frequency 735 414 321 178 194 211 152 320 415
Weighted Frequency 735 362 373 217 186 190 141 278 457
This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from random digit dialing.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.61% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.82%, Females: +/-
5.47%, 18-34 age group: +/- 7.35%, 35-49 age group: +/- 7.04%, 50-64 age group: +/-
6.75%, 65+ age group: +/- 7.95%, Winnipeg: +/- 4.81%, Rest of Manitoba: +/- 5.48%.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.