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GLOBAL WARMING -is it a crisis?

Introduction:
We are talking about the so called ‘human influenced global
warming for the past two decades. All the top leaders of the countries
were arguing about human induced climate change. It took its final shape
at Copenhagen, Denmark. The reality is, we haven’t understood the real
reason for the climate change and whether we are solely responsible for
the climate change. The report presented by the IPCC doesn’t have a
valid proof to support their own consensus. The climate changes
frequently, rapidly sometimes unpredictably. This has been conventional
knowledge amongst earth environmentalists since 1970, yet we don’t read
much about natural climate change in daily news. In 2007, the daily
media in pursuit of circulation needs started screaming about human
induced global warming. we will see whether the reasons stated by the so
called environmental scientists worth proving our part in global warming
and will decide whether human influenced global warming is existing or
not.

Climate:
There is no established theory of climate like that of
Copernican theory, Newton’s theory etc. It is solely based on hypothesis.
The currently used hypothesis for global warming is that 20th century
warming is caused by human emitted green house gas (GHG),
carbondioxide. But there is no proof supporting this hypothesis due to the
following reasons.

1. In 20th century there is no close relationship between increase in


CO2 and temperature rise.
2. The 20th century rates and magnitude of temperature change
fall well within the previously established natural limits inspite of
increase in GHG emissions from humans.
3. The deterministic computer models were not able to track the
temperature change between years 1990-2006.

Without knowing the exact theory it is impossible to predict


how the climate works.
Carbodioxide:

When we think about global warming ,the first thing that


comes to our mind is CO2.It is a colorless , odorless gas present in the
earth’s atmosphere through time in trace amounts ranging from few
hundreds to several thousand parts per million. Is it a main reason for
temperature increase? The answer is NO. All estimates of CO2 levels
during the recent past are very low by the standards of early geological
history (e g: Cenozoic age-1000ppm).It is therefore very clear that there is
nothing inherently unusual or dangerous about the extra CO2
contributed by the human activity. To say the truth we contribute only
3% of the atmospheric CO2 at present. There is also another myth that
present increased levels of CO2 is harmful for plants.Actually,CO2 helps
with absorption in plants.CO2 in the range of 200-1000ppm has been
proved to be beneficial for plant growth. CO2 has a property of trapping
IR radiations but it is not a valid proof to say that it is solely responsible
for temperature rise taking into account the following facts:

1. The relationship between increasing CO2 and increasing


temperature is not linear, it is logarithmic.
2. As predicted by IPCC an increase from 280ppm (pre-industrial
time) to 380 ppm at present must have caused 75% of warming
already. But it was not so.(only by 2100 we will have ~1deg c
increase)
3. The ice core data (used for estimating climate) shows that
changes in temperature precede changes in CO2 by 800 years.
4. Extensive glaciatation (cooling) has occurred nearly 444 and
353 million years ago when atmospheric CO2 was up to 17 times
higher than today.

Computer models:

The models used by the IPCC are deterministic. The


modelers themselves acknowledge that they can’t predict the future
climate. They predict that green house warming trends must increase
with altitude and must attain a peak at 10 km but the real-time
observations shows a decreasing trend. There is another approach for
determining the climate change called the empirical approach. It analyses
a portion of a climate record to establish pattern of past temperature
change and project it into the future. With this method and available data
,analysis showed that cooling occurred in 20th century and not any kind of
warming.

Consensus:

Science is not based on consensus. Politics is based on


consensus. Consensus (general agreement) is irrelevant in science. Science
deals with experiments, proofs and reproducible results. Therefore the
statements such as “there is a consensus that dangerous global warming
will occur” convey sociological rather than scientific information.

Global temperature:

The average global temperature cannot be measured


accurately. The data sets used for predicting the temperature change by
the IPCC are inaccurate because of the following reasons:

1. In a planet where 70% of it is water and mere 30% of it is land,


the temperature sensing equipments were placed non-randomly.
About 90% of those equipments were placed in land .
2.The number of sites for measuring temperature varied
dramatically in the last century.
in 1850-200 sites
in 1965-14000 sites
in 2000-5000 sites
3. The measuring equipments doesn’t take into account the
environmental changes took place over the years.
A simple example of how they arrived at the mean global
temperature is , obtaining the mobile phone numbers of ‘n’ persons,
taking the mean value of it and saying,” this is the mobile phone number
related to n persons”. The processes that control the climate change such
as ocean currents and atmospheric circulation are driven by regional and
local temperature differences and not global temperature statistic.
Moreover 100 year long interval is too short to predict long term climate
change. The temperature change as predicted by IPCC is not a dangerous
level. When we look back at past, temperature change at the rate of 15
deg c,-2.5 to +2.5 deg c have occurred in a century. Rate of change of 1deg
c is natural too. The satellite data has shown no substantial increase in
tropospheric (at a altitude of 10 km) temperature in the past decade.

Melting of Ice:

People argue that due to temperature rise Ice bergs in north


and South Pole are melting.CO2 is in no way causing temperature rise. It
has been proved that, increase in temperature drives high the CO2 levels
and not the vice-versa. The other phenomenon that we have failed to take
into account is the increased solar activity for the past 60 years. It is the
major reason for the melting of iceberg. Even then, the rate of melting is
well below the natural limits recorded in the previous years.

IPCC:

International Panel for Climate Change(IPCC) is the one to


which most of the countries will ask for suggestion relating to climate
issues. It is actually consisting of scientists , business people and policy
makers. Any decision established by IPCC will be influenced by those
listed above. Many distinguished scientists refused to participate and
even resigned from it because finally the decision provided by IPCC is
political and not scientific. Even Al gore, ex-chairman of IPCC has said
that” there is no convincing evidence for temperature increase by
CO2.We must have a sensitive approach towards limiting CO2 rather
than a scientific approach.”

Media:

It is very much evident that media has failed to be a public


‘watch dog’. They must have analyzed the truth, hypothesis, research
before providing the news to the people. This global warming is a way to
restrict the growth of developing countries by imposing rules,
prohibitions, laws and agreements. People must be informed about the
existing bogus science and their hypothesis. They must know the exact
science and not political consensus.
Conclusion:

We have failed to distinguish between the new, unreal


human induced global warming and the real, natural climate change.
The natural climate change is a disaster.We have to treat it just like the
geological hazards such as earth quake,tsunami etc.Reducing CO2
emissions is not a solution.Climate has changed in the past,changing at
present and will change in future also.We cannot stop or prevent the
natural process.The only thing that we can do is to adapt measures in
such a way as to tackle its effects in an efficient way securing lives of
humans and their properties.So human induced global warming doesn’t
even exist,we have to concentrate on the natural climate change and must
be in a position to face the challenges arising out of it.