CUADRO C.1.

6
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA DEL MES EN 24 Hrs.
ESTACION CALACOA CODIGO CO 157418

CUENCA INAMBARI LATITUD 14°28'28" S REGION PUNO

RIO LONGITUD 69°32'32" W PROV SANDIA
TIPO CO ALTITUD 3494 DIST CUYOCUYO

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC MAX
1966 0.0 0.0 5.1 4.0 5.3
1967 15.0 23.8 38.1 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 38.1
1968 17.0 16.0 16.7 1.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 13.5 4.5 17.0
1969 20.0 8.8 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 13.2 20.0
1970 31.4 11.2 11.8 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 8.3 31.4
1971 16.5 18.9 7.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.2 18.9
1972 18.9 33.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.0 9.2 33.0
1973 26.9 35.0 36.1 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 4.2 0.0 0.0 36.1
1974 31.0 21.1 22.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 31.0
1975 18.0 13.5 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.4 19.4
1976 19.9 15.8 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.9
1977 40.7 16.5 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 17.4 40.7
1978 8.0 20.1 20.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 26.5 2.2 26.5
1979 12.3 7.3 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 15.4
1980 12.0 30.0 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0
1981 50.7 31.1 11.7 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.2 50.7
1982 16.1 23.2 3.4 3.8 0.0 0.0 4.2 23.2
1983 9.8 13.4 4.6 42.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 42.6
1984 19.5 48.4 14.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 12.3 9.2 48.4
1985 10.8 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 13.0 20.2
1986 20.9 17.5 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 20.9
1987 18.9 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.9
1988 12.9 5.2 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 12.9
1989 12.9 30.7 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.7
1990 18.7 3.1 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 17.4 18.7
1991 14.0 1.0 4.0 14.0
1992 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.4 16.4
1993 22.0 19.1 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 11.0 22.0
1994 20.1 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 20.1
1995 10.5 0.0 8.6 4.8 4.2 0.0 1.5 0.0 10.5
1996 17.2 14.7 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.2 17.2
1997 28.1 35.0 30.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 24.0 35.0
1998 31.5 24.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.1 24.2 31.5
1999 21.3 32.8 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 32.8
2000 22.1 31.7 14.4 2.5 4.0 3.0 0.0 8.9 31.7
2001 21.3 53.8 26.2 6.3 0.0 0.6 0.5 2.2 53.8
2002 8.8 60.6 22.1 3.1 0.0 6.2 4.9 12.4 60.6
2003 9.5 19.0 11.4 0.5 9.2 0.0 0.0 8.7 19.0
2004 23.5 20.0 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 23.5
2005 18.0 28.5 28.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.5 29.5
2006 27.0 25.0 10.6 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 27.0
2007 10.9 15.0 10.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 15.0
2008 30.1 40.1 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 60.0
2009 10.6 10.1 18.6 3.1 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.8 18.6
2010 9.6 7.6 5.4 9.6
0.0
0.0

N' DATOS 42 43 43 42 42 41 7 8 8 8 44 43 46
MEDIA 18.5 21.7 16.3 2.8 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.7 8.5 26.4
DESV.STD 7.7 14.0 11.2 6.9 1.6 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.9 5.0 7.0 13.6
MIN 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
MAX 40.7 60.6 60.0 42.6 9.2 6.2 0.0 0.0 5.1 8.3 26.5 29.5 60.6
MEDIANA 18.4 19.0 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 7.5 22.6
 CUADRO N° 16-A
Características Físicas de Subcuencas (HEC)

Perimetro Cauce L C MAX C MIN "CN" Curva

Sub Cuenca Nombre Area (km2) (m) (km) m.s.n.m. m.s.n.m. AREA A(HA) PENDIENTE
S(%)
Numero de
Escurrimiento
MC-1 Cuenca Alta del rio Sina 231.83 79522 24.9 4750 2700 2318.30 0.0823 68

FUENTE: ELABORACIÓN PROPIA (RESULTADOS DE ESTUDIOS DE CAMPO)

CALCULO DE PRECIPITACION MAXIMA PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Proyecto: Construccion del Puente Jerusalen

Estación: Ananea
Datos ActivosDatos Totales
Numero de Datos (n) 19 20
Minimo 22.5 22.5
Maximo 48.4 48.4
Promedio 35.85 35.56
Estándar Desviation 6.679 6.631
Mediana 36.00 35.5
Coeficiente de Variacion (Cv) 0.1863 0.1865
Skewness coefficient (Cs) -0.014 0.0935
Kurtosis Coeficient (Ck) 2.457 2.436

PRECIPITACION PARA UN PERIODO DE RETORNO DE: 100 AÑOS

Modelo Nb param XT P (Mi) P (Mi |x) BIC AIC

Lognormal (Maxim 2 56.403 33.33 55.06 315.123 311.555
Gumbel (Method o 2 58.102 33.33 36.48 315.947 312.378
Log-Pearson type 3 55.11 33.33 8.46 318.869 313.517

PRECIPITACION PARA UN PERIODO DE RETORNO DE: 200 AÑOS

Modelo Nb param XT P (Mi) P (Mi |x) BIC AIC

Lognormal (Maxim 2 60.252 33.33 55.06 315.123 311.555
Gumbel (Method o 2 62.698 33.33 36.48 315.947 312.378
Log-Pearson type 3 58.584 33.33 8.46 318.869 313.517
PRECIPITACION PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO 10000
2000
Modelo: Gumbel (Maximum Likelihood) 1000
200
T q XT Desv. Estand Intervalo de Confianza 100
10000 0.9999 62.96 5.73 51.73 - 74.20 50
2000 0.9995 55.02 4.788 45.63 - 64.40 25
1000 0.999 51.59 4.383 43.00 - 60.19 20
200 0.995 43.64 3.448 36.88 - 50.40 10
100 0.99 40.2 3.048 34.23 - 46.18 5
50 0.98 36.75 2.65 31.56 - 41.95 3
25 0.96 33.28 2.254 28.86 - 37.70 2
20 0.95 32.15 2.127 27.98 - 36.32 1.4286
10 0.9 28.6 1.735 25.20 - 32.00 1.25
5 0.8 24.89 1.347 22.25 - 27.53 1.1111
3 0.6667 21.94 1.071 19.84 - 24.04 1.0526
2 0.5 19.3 0.8714 17.59 - 21.00 1.0204
1.4286 0.3 16.57 0.7551 15.09 - 18.05 1.0101
1.25 0.2 15.14 0.7458 13.67 - 16.60 1.005
1.1111 0.1 13.37 0.7875 11.82 - 14.91 1.001
1.0526 0.05 12.07 0.851 10.40 - 13.74 1.0005
1.0204 0.02 10.75 0.9377 8.913 - 12.59 1.0001
1.0101 0.01 9.946 0.9992 7.987 - 11.90
1.005 0.005 9.253 1.056 7.182 - 11.32
1.001 0.001 7.944 1.173 5.644 - 10.24
1.0005 0.0005 7.471 1.217 5.086 - 9.857
1.0001 0.0001 6.523 1.309 3.958 - 9.089 5 0.8
3 0.6667
2 0.5
1.4286 0.3
1.25 0.2
1.1111 0.1
1.0526 0.05
1.0204 0.02
1.0101 0.01
1.005 0.005
1.001 0.001
1.0005 0.0005
1.0001 0.0001
PRECIPITACION PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Modelo: Lognormal (Maximum Likelihood)

T q XT Desv. Estand Intervalo de Confianza

10000 0.9999 72.51 9.3 69.98 - 116.7
2000 0.9995 66.72 7.698 63.2 - 102.2
1000 0.999 64.18 7.023 60.27 - 95.99
200 0.995 58.09 5.487 53.45 - 81.51
100 0.99 55.34 4.839 50.49 - 75.27
50 0.98 52.49 4.198 47.51 - 69.02
20 0.95 48.48 3.364 43.49 - 60.72
10 0.9 45.18 2.748 40.34 - 54.35
5 0.8 41.48 2.164 36.97 - 47.8
3 0.6667 38.3 1.786 34.16 - 42.72
2 0.5 35.23 1.569 31.43 - 38.36
1.4286 0.3 31.83 1.516 28.24 - 34.25
1.25 0.2 29.93 1.561 26.35 - 32.31
1.1111 0.1 27.48 1.671 23.79 - 30.14
1.0526 0.05 25.6 1.776 21.77 - 28.67
1.0204 0.02 23.65 1.891 19.64 - 27.28
1.0101 0.01 22.43 1.961 18.3 - 26.46
1.005 0.005 21.37 2.019 17.13 - 25.77
1.001 0.001 19.34 2.116 14.89 - 24.51
1.0005 0.0005 18.6 2.146 14.08 - 24.06
1.0001 0.0001 17.12 2.196 12.43 - 23.17
1.4286 0.3
1.25 0.2
1.1111 0.1
1.0526 0.05
1.0204 0.02
1.0101 0.01
1.005 0.005
1.001 0.001
1.0005 0.0005
1.0001 0.0001
PRECIPITACION PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Modelo: Log-Pearson type 3 (Méthode SAM)

T q XT Desv. Estand Intervalo de Confianza

10000 0.9999 58.39 12.57 69.98 - 116.7
2000 0.9995 56.27 9.791 63.2 - 102.2
1000 0.999 55.22 8.595 60.27 - 95.99
200 0.995 52.38 5.883 53.45 - 81.51
100 0.99 50.92 4.781 50.49 - 75.27
50 0.98 49.27 3.762 47.51 - 69.02
20 0.95 46.7 2.639 43.49 - 60.72
10 0.9 44.34 2.072 40.34 - 54.35
5 0.8 41.42 1.814 36.97 - 47.8
3 0.6667 38.69 1.742 34.16 - 42.72
2 0.5 35.79 1.71 31.43 - 38.36
1.4286 0.3 32.32 1.67 28.24 - 34.25
1.25 0.2 30.25 1.731 26.35 - 32.31
1.1111 0.1 27.44 2.013 23.79 - 30.14
1.0526 0.05 25.2 2.419 21.77 - 28.67
1.0204 0.02 22.77 3 19.64 - 27.28
1.0101 0.01 21.21 3.425 18.3 - 26.46
1.005 0.005 19.83 3.821 17.13 - 25.77
1.001 0.001 17.14 4.606 14.89 - 24.51
1.0005 0.0005 16.15 4.888 14.08 - 24.06
1.0001 0.0001 14.15 5.423 12.43 - 23.17
0.9999 62.96 5.73 51.73 - 74.20
0.9995 55.02 4.788 45.63 - 64.40
0.999 51.59 4.383 43.00 - 60.19
0.995 43.64 3.448 36.88 - 50.40
0.99 40.2 3.048 34.23 - 46.18
0.98 36.75 2.65 31.56 - 41.95
0.96 33.28 2.254 28.86 - 37.70
0.95 32.15 2.127 27.98 - 36.32
0.9 28.6 1.735 25.20 - 32.00
0.8 24.89 1.347 22.25 - 27.53
0.6667 21.94 1.071 19.84 - 24.04
0.5 19.3 0.8714 17.59 - 21.00
0.3 16.57 0.7551 15.09 - 18.05
0.2 15.14 0.7458 13.67 - 16.60
0.1 13.37 0.7875 11.82 - 14.91
0.05 12.07 0.851 10.40 - 13.74
0.02 10.75 0.9377 8.913 - 12.59
0.01 9.946 0.9992 7.987 - 11.90
0.005 9.253 1.056 7.182 - 11.32
0.001 7.944 1.173 5.644 - 10.24
0.0005 7.471 1.217 5.086 - 9.857
0.0001 6.523 1.309 3.958 - 9.089
62.88 6.321 50.49 75.27
58.27 5.488 47.51 69.02
52.11 4.394 43.49 60.72
47.35 3.573 40.34 54.35
42.39 2.762 36.97 47.8
38.44 2.184 34.16 42.72
34.9 1.768 31.43 38.36
31.25 1.533 28.24 34.25
29.33 1.521 26.35 32.31
26.96 1.62 23.79 30.14
25.22 1.761 21.77 28.67
23.46 1.949 19.64 27.28
22.38 2.082 18.3 26.46
21.45 2.204 17.13 25.77
19.7 2.452 14.89 24.51
19.07 2.546 14.08 24.06
17.8 2.74 12.43 23.17
XT Standard deviConfidence interval (95%)
72.51 9.3 69.98 116.7
66.72 7.698 63.2 102.2
64.18 7.023 60.27 95.99
58.09 5.487 53.45 81.51
55.34 4.839 50.49 75.27
52.49 4.198 47.51 69.02
48.48 3.364 43.49 60.72
45.18 2.748 40.34 54.35
41.48 2.164 36.97 47.8
38.3 1.786 34.16 42.72
35.23 1.569 31.43 38.36
31.83 1.516 28.24 34.25
29.93 1.561 26.35 32.31
27.48 1.671 23.79 30.14
25.6 1.776 21.77 28.67
23.65 1.891 19.64 27.28
22.43 1.961 18.3 26.46
21.37 2.019 17.13 25.77
19.34 2.116 14.89 24.51
18.6 2.146 14.08 24.06
17.12 2.196 12.43 23.17
CALCULO DE PRESIPITACION MAXIMA PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Proyecto: Construccion de 03 Puentes Vehiculares Tramo Checca Masocruz

Estación: Crucero
Datos ActivosDatos Totales
Numero de Datos (n) 40 46
Minimo 21 21
Maximo 46 46
Promedio 32.62 31.94
Estándar Desviation 6.002 6.135
Mediana 33.10 32.6
Coeficiente de Variacion (Cv) 0.184 0.1921
Skewness coefficient (Cs) 0.2638 0.2591
Kurtosis Coeficient (Ck) 2.374 2.406

PRECIPITACION PARA UN PERIODO DE RETORNO DE: 100

Modelo Nb param XT P (Mi) P (Mi |x) BIC

Gumbel (Maximum Likelihood) 2 62.88 33.33 35.36 133.672
Log-Pearson type 3 (Method of moment 3 50.547 33.33 33.29 133.792
3-parameter lognormal (Method of mom 3 51.456 33.33 31.35 133.913

PRECIPITACION PARA UN PERIODO DE RETORNO DE: 200

Modelo Nb param XT P (Mi) P (Mi |x) BIC

Gumbel (Maximum Likelihood) 2 67.479 33.33 35.36 133.672
Log-Pearson type 3 (Method of moment 3 51.896 33.33 33.29 133.792
3-parameter lognormal (Method of mom 3 53.141 33.33 31.35 133.913
PRECIPITACION PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Modelo: Gumbel (Maximum Likelihood)

T q XT Desv. Estandar Intervalo de Confianza

10000 0.9999 79.92 11.7 56.98 - 102.9
2000 0.9995 70.4 9.769 51.25 - 89.56
1000 0.999 66.31 8.939 48.78 - 83.83
200 0.995 56.78 7.019 43.02 - 70.54
100 0.99 52.67 6.196 40.52 - 64.82
50 0.98 48.54 5.378 38.00 - 59.09
20 0.95 43.04 4.302 34.60 - 51.47
10 0.9 38.78 3.495 31.93 - 45.63
5 0.8 34.35 2.698 29.06 - 39.64
3 0.6667 30.82 2.129 26.64 - 34.99
2 0.5 27.65 1.72 24.28 - 31.02
1.4286 0.3 24.39 1.492 21.46 - 27.31
1.25 0.2 22.67 1.483 19.76 - 25.58
1.1111 0.1 20.55 1.583 17.45 - 23.66
1.0526 0.05 19 1.725 15.62 - 22.38
1.0204 0.02 17.42 1.912 13.67 - 21.17
1.0101 0.01 16.46 2.044 12.45 - 20.46
1.005 0.005 15.63 2.165 11.38 - 19.87
1.001 0.001 14.06 2.41 9.335 - 18.78
1.0005 0.0005 13.49 2.503 8.588 - 18.40
1.0001 0.0001 12.36 2.694 7.078 - 17.64

Construccion de 03 Puentes Vehiculares Tramo Checca Masocruz

Prueba de Adecuacion (Adequacy test)

Gumbel (Maximum Likelihood)

Hypotheses
H0 : La distribución subyacente de esta muestra es Gumbel (The underlying distribution of this sample is Gumbe
H1 : La distribución subyacente de esta muestra no es Gumbel (The underlying distribution of this sample is not

Resultados
Statistics result : X ² = 8.00
p-value : p = 0.2381
Degrees of freedom : 6
Number of classes : 9

Conclusion
Aceptamos H0 en un nivel de significancia de 5% (We accept H0 at a significance level of 5 %)
PRECIPITACION PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Modelo: Lognormal 3 Param (Maximum Likelihood)

T q XT Desv. Estandar Intervalo de Confianza

10000 0.9999 60.46 8.14 44.51 - 76.42
2000 0.9995 56.46 6.281 44.15 - 68.78
1000 0.999 54.67 5.525 43.84 - 65.50
200 0.995 50.27 3.887 42.65 - 57.89
100 0.99 48.24 3.242 41.89 - 54.60
50 0.98 46.1 2.644 40.92 - 51.29
20 0.95 43.03 1.947 39.21 - 46.85
10 0.9 40.44 1.52 37.46 - 43.42
5 0.8 37.46 1.212 35.09 - 39.84
3 0.6667 34.83 1.072 32.73 - 36.93
2 0.5 32.23 1.003 30.27 - 34.20
1.4286 0.3 29.25 0.9654 27.36 - 31.15
1.25 0.2 27.55 0.9759 25.64 - 29.46
1.1111 0.1 25.3 1.074 23.20 - 27.41
1.0526 0.05 23.54 1.255 21.08 - 26.00
1.0204 0.02 21.66 1.574 18.57 - 24.74
1.0101 0.01 20.46 1.846 16.84 - 24.08
1.005 0.005 19.4 2.131 15.22 - 23.58
1.001 0.001 17.32 2.81 11.81 - 22.83
1.0005 0.0005 16.55 3.102 10.47 - 22.63
1.0001 0.0001 14.96 3.772 7.569 - 22.36
PRECIPITACION PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Modelo: Log Pearson type 3 (Method of moments)

T q XT Desv. Estandar
Intervalo de Confianza
10000 0.9999 56.95 8.295 N/D
2000 0.9995 54.02 6.265 N/D
1000 0.999 52.65 5.435 42.00 - 63.31
200 0.995 49.13 3.659 41.96 - 56.31
100 0.99 47.43 2.986 41.58 - 53.29
50 0.98 45.58 2.391 40.89 - 50.26
20 0.95 42.82 1.756 39.38 - 46.26
10 0.9 40.41 1.412 37.64 - 43.18
5 0.8 37.56 1.187 35.23 - 39.88
3 0.6667 35 1.075 32.89 - 37.11
2 0.5 32.36 1.014 30.37 - 34.35
1.4286 0.3 29.31 0.9822 27.38 - 31.23
1.25 0.2 27.54 1.012 25.55 - 29.52
1.1111 0.1 25.18 1.144 22.94 - 27.42
1.0526 0.05 23.32 1.334 20.71 - 25.94
1.0204 0.02 21.33 1.612 18.17 - 24.50
1.0101 0.01 20.07 1.822 16.50 - 23.64
1.005 0.005 18.95 2.024 14.98 - 22.92
1.001 0.001 16.78 2.444 11.98 - 21.57
1.0005 0.0005 15.98 2.605 10.87 - 21.08
1.0001 0.0001 14.35 2.93 8.609 - 20.10
 Construccion de 03 Puentes Vehiculares Tramo Checca Masocruz

Test for independence (Wald-Wolfowitz)

Hypotheses
H0 The observations are independent
H1 Observations are dependent (autocorrelation of order 1)

Results
Statistics val |U| = 0.8654
p-value : p = 0.3868

Conclusion
We accept H0 at a significance level of 5 %.

AÑOS

AIC
131.783
130.959
131.079

AÑOS

AIC
131.783
130.959
131.079
 XT Standard deviConfidence interval (95%)
10000 0.9999 79.92 11.7 56.98 - 102. N/D
2000 0.9995 70.4 9.769 51.25 - 89.5 N/D
1000 0.999 66.31 8.939 48.78 - 83.8 N/D
200 0.995 56.78 7.019 43.02 - 70.5 N/D
100 0.99 52.67 6.196 40.52 - 64.8 N/D
50 0.98 48.54 5.378 38.00 - 59.0 56.65
20 0.95 43.04 4.302 34.60 - 51.4 51.88
10 0.9 38.78 3.495 31.93 - 45.6 48.4
5 0.8 34.35 2.698 29.06 - 39.6 44.98
3 0.6667 30.82 2.129 26.64 - 34.9 42.11
2 0.5 27.65 1.72 24.28 - 31.0 39.14
1.4286 0.3 24.39 1.492 21.46 - 27.3 35.59
1.25 0.2 22.67 1.483 19.76 - 25.5 33.64
1.1111 0.1 20.55 1.583 17.45 - 23.6 31.39
1.0526 0.05 19 1.725 15.62 - 22.3 29.94
1.0204 0.02 17.42 1.912 13.67 - 21.1 28.65
1.0101 0.01 16.46 2.044 12.45 - 20.4 27.92
1.005 0.005 15.63 2.165 11.38 - 19.87 27.32
1.001 0.001 14.06 2.41 9.335 - 18.7 26.17
1.0005 0.0005 13.49 2.503 8.588 - 18.4 25.73
 1.0001 0.0001 12.36 2.694 7.078 - 17.6 24.78

Construccion de 03 Puentes Vehiculares Tramo Checca Masocruz

Results of the fitting

3-parameter lognormal (Maximum Likelihood)

Number of observations 40

Parameters
m -12.225116
mu 3.794492
sigma 0.132211

Quantiles
q = F(X) : non-exceedance probability
T = 1/(1-q)

T q XT Standard deviConfidence interval (95%)

10000 0.9999 60.46 8.14 N/D N/D
2000 0.9995 56.46 6.281 N/D N/D
1000 0.999 54.67 5.525 42 63.31
200 0.995 50.27 3.887 41.96 56.31
100 0.99 48.24 3.242 41.58 53.29
50 0.98 46.1 2.644 40.89 50.26
20 0.95 43.03 1.947 39.38 46.26
10 0.9 40.44 1.52 37.64 43.18
5 0.8 37.46 1.212 35.23 39.88
3 0.6667 34.83 1.072 32.89 37.11
2 0.5 32.23 1.003 30.37 34.35
1.4286 0.3 29.25 0.9654 27.38 31.23
1.25 0.2 27.55 0.9759 25.55 29.52
1.1111 0.1 25.3 1.074 22.94 27.42
1.0526 0.05 23.54 1.255 20.71 25.94
1.0204 0.02 21.66 1.574 18.17 24.5
1.0101 0.01 20.46 1.846 16.5 23.64
1.005 0.005 19.4 2.131 14.98 22.92
1.001 0.001 17.32 2.81 11.98 21.57
1.0005 0.0005 16.55 3.102 10.87 21.08
1.0001 0.0001 14.96 3.772 8.609 20.1
CALCULO DE PRECIPITACION MAXIMA PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Proyecto: Construccion de 03 Puentes Vehiculares Tramo Checca Masocruz

Estación: Tambopata - San Juan del Oro
Datos ActivosDatos Totales
Numero de Datos (n) 38 46
Minimo 18.4 12.6
Maximo 46 46
Promedio 32.58 31.13
Estándar Desviation 7.557 8.079
Mediana 32.60 29.2
Coeficiente de Variacion (Cv) 0.232 0.2595
Skewness coefficient (Cs) 0.2105 -0.01111
Kurtosis Coeficient (Ck) 1.954 2.65
PRECIPITACION PARA UN PERIODO DE RETORNO DE: 100 AÑOS

Modelo Nb param XT P (Mi) P (Mi |x) BIC AIC

Gumbel (Maximum Li 2 113.878 33.33 45.56 165.54 163.548
Lognormal (Maximum 2 105.229 33.33 43.42 165.636 163.644
Log-Pearson type 3 3 107.901 33.33 11.02 168.379 165.391

PRECIPITACION PARA UN PERIODO DE RETORNO DE: 200 AÑOS

Modelo Nb param XT P (Mi) P (Mi |x) BIC AIC

Gumbel (Maximum Li 2 122.038 33.33 45.56 165.54 163.548
Lognormal (Maximum 2 110.78 33.33 43.42 165.636 163.644
Log-Pearson type 3 3 114.666 33.33 11.02 168.379 165.391

PRECIPITACION PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Modelo: Gumbel (Maximun Likelihood)

T q XT Desv. Estand Intervalo de Confianza

10000 0.9999 168 20.59 127.6 - 208.3
2000 0.9995 149.1 17.19 115.4 - 182.8
1000 0.999 140.9 15.73 110.1 - 171.8
200 0.995 122 12.36 97.81 - 146.3 Construccion de Puente Jerusalen
100 0.99 113.9 10.92 92.48 - 135.3
50 0.98 105.7 9.479 87.11 - 124.3 Results of the fitting
20 0.95 94.76 7.591 79.88 - 109.6
10 0.9 86.31 6.174 74.21 - 98.42 Gumbel (Maximum Likelihood)
5 0.8 77.51 4.775 68.15 - 86.87
3 0.6667 70.5 3.777 63.10 - 77.91 Number of observations 20
2 0.5 64.21 3.059 58.22 - 70.21
1.4286 0.3 57.74 2.652 52.54 - 62.94 Parameters
1.25 0.2 54.33 2.631 49.18 - 59.49 u
1.1111 0.1 50.13 2.799 44.64 - 55.62 alpha
1.0526 0.05 47.04 3.041 41.08 - 53.01
1.0204 0.02 43.91 3.366 37.32 - 50.51 Quantiles
1.0101 0.01 42 3.594 34.96 - 49.05 q = F(X) : non-exceedance probabil
1.005 0.005 40.36 3.804 32.90 - 47.81 T = 1/(1-q)
1.001 0.001 37.24 4.232 28.95 - 45.54
1.0005 0.0005 36.12 4.393 27.51 - 44.74 T
1.0001 0.0001 33.87 4.728 24.60 - 43.14 10000
2000
1000
200
100
50
20
10
5
3
 2
1.4286
1.25
1.1111
1.0526
1.0204
1.0101
1.005
1.001
1.0005
1.0001

PRECIPITACION PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Modelo: 2-parameter lognormal (Maximum Likelihood)

T q XT Desv. Estand Intervalo de Confianza

10000 0.9999 76.56 8.377 60.14 - 92.98
2000 0.9995 69.17 6.811 55.82 - 82.52
1000 0.999 65.97 6.162 53.89 - 78.04
200 0.995 58.4 4.713 49.16 - 67.64
100 0.99 55.05 4.114 46.98 - 63.11
50 0.98 51.6 3.53 44.68 - 58.52
20 0.95 46.84 2.783 41.38 - 52.29
10 0.9 42.97 2.243 38.57 - 47.37
5 0.8 38.71 1.738 35.31 - 42.12
3 0.6667 35.12 1.413 32.35 - 37.89
2 0.5 31.72 1.219 29.33 - 34.11
1.4286 0.3 28.01 1.15 25.76 - 30.27
1.25 0.2 25.98 1.166 23.70 - 28.27
1.1111 0.1 23.41 1.222 21.01 - 25.80
1.0526 0.05 21.48 1.276 18.97 - 23.98
1.0204 0.02 19.49 1.333 16.88 - 22.11
1.0101 0.01 18.27 1.366 15.60 - 20.95
1.005 0.005 17.23 1.39 14.50 - 19.95
1.001 0.001 15.25 1.424 12.46 - 18.04
1.0005 0.0005 14.54 1.432 11.74 - 17.35
1.0001 0.0001 13.14 1.438 10.32 - 15.96
PRECIPITACION PARA DISTINTOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

Modelo: Log-Pearson type 3 (Méthode of Moment's)

T q XT Desv. Estand Intervalo de Confianza

10000 0.9999 68.8 14.94 N/D
2000 0.9995 63.64 10.87 N/D
1000 0.999 61.31 9.254 N/D
200 0.995 55.54 5.936 43.90 - 67.18
100 0.99 52.86 4.731 43.59 - 62.14
50 0.98 50.03 3.691 42.80 - 57.27
20 0.95 45.97 2.607 40.86 - 51.08
10 0.9 42.56 2.023 38.59 - 46.53
5 0.8 38.67 1.629 35.48 - 41.86
3 0.6667 35.31 1.428 32.51 - 38.11
2 0.5 31.95 1.305 29.39 - 34.51
1.4286 0.3 28.22 1.213 25.84 - 30.59
1.25 0.2 26.12 1.213 23.74 - 28.50
1.1111 0.1 23.42 1.324 20.82 - 26.01
1.0526 0.05 21.35 1.514 18.38 - 24.31
1.0204 0.02 19.19 1.804 15.65 - 22.72
1.0101 0.01 17.85 2.023 13.88 - 21.81
1.005 0.005 16.69 2.231 12.31 - 21.06
1.001 0.001 14.48 2.658 9.269 - 19.69
1.0005 0.0005 13.69 2.816 8.165 - 19.21
1.0001 0.0001 12.11 3.131 5.968 - 18.24
Construccion de 03 Puentes Vehiculares Tramo Checca Masocruz

Test for independence (Wald-Wolfowitz)

Hypotheses
H0 Las observaciones son independientes
H1 Observaciones son dependientes (autocorrelacion de orden 1)

Results
Statistics value |U| = 2.926
p-value : p = 0.003442

Conclusion
We REJECT H0 at a significance level of 1 %.
onstruccion de Puente Jerusalen

esults of the fitting

umbel (Maximum Likelihood)

umber of observations 20

59.915289
11.730553

= F(X) : non-exceedance probability

q XT Standard deviConfidence interval (95%)

0.9999 168 20.59 127.6 - 208.3
0.9995 149.1 17.19 115.4 - 182.8
0.999 140.9 15.73 110.1 - 171.8
0.995 122 12.36 97.81 - 146.3
0.99 113.9 10.92 92.48 - 135.3
0.98 105.7 9.479 87.11 - 124.3
0.95 94.76 7.591 79.88 - 109.6
0.9 86.31 6.174 74.21 - 98.42
0.8 77.51 4.775 68.15 - 86.87
0.6667 70.5 3.777 63.10 - 77.91
 0.5 64.21 3.059 58.22 - 70.21
0.3 57.74 2.652 52.54 - 62.94
0.2 54.33 2.631 49.18 - 59.49
0.1 50.13 2.799 44.64 - 55.62
0.05 47.04 3.041 41.08 - 53.01
0.02 43.91 3.366 37.32 - 50.51
0.01 42 3.594 34.96 - 49.05
0.005 40.36 3.804 32.90 - 47.81
0.001 37.24 4.232 28.95 - 45.54
0.0005 36.12 4.393 27.51 - 44.74
0.0001 33.87 4.728 24.60 - 43.14

Construccion de 03 Puentes Vehiculares Tramo Checca Masocruz

Results of the fitting

Lognormal (Maximum Likelihood)

Number of observations 38

Parameters
mu 3.456822
sigma 0.236955

Quantiles
q = F(X) : non-exceedance probability
T = 1/(1-q)

T q XT Standard deviConfidence interval (95%)

10000 0.9999 76.56 8.377 60.14 - 92.98
2000 0.9995 69.17 6.811 55.82 - 82.52
1000 0.999 65.97 6.162 53.89 - 78.04
200 0.995 58.4 4.713 49.16 - 67.64
100 0.99 55.05 4.114 46.98 - 63.11
50 0.98 51.6 3.53 44.68 - 58.52
20 0.95 46.84 2.783 41.38 - 52.29
10 0.9 42.97 2.243 38.57 - 47.37
5 0.8 38.71 1.738 35.31 - 42.12
3 0.6667 35.12 1.413 32.35 - 37.89
2 0.5 31.72 1.219 29.33 - 34.11
1.4286 0.3 28.01 1.15 25.76 - 30.27
 1.25 0.2 25.98 1.166 23.70 - 28.27
1.1111 0.1 23.41 1.222 21.01 - 25.80
1.0526 0.05 21.48 1.276 18.97 - 23.98
1.0204 0.02 19.49 1.333 16.88 - 22.11
1.0101 0.01 18.27 1.366 15.60 - 20.95
1.005 0.005 17.23 1.39 14.50 - 19.95
1.001 0.001 15.25 1.424 12.46 - 18.04
1.0005 0.0005 14.54 1.432 11.74 - 17.35
1.0001 0.0001 13.14 1.438 10.32 - 15.96

Construccion de 03 Puentes Vehiculares Tramo Checca Masocruz

Results of the fitting

Log-Pearson type 3 (Méthode SAM)

Number of observations 38

Parameters
alpha -105.143406
lambda 113.578203
m 2.581501

Quantiles
q = F(X) : non-exceedance probability
T = 1/(1-q)

T q XT Standard deviConfidence interval (95%)

10000 0.9999 68.8 14.94 N/D
2000 0.9995 63.64 10.87 N/D
1000 0.999 61.31 9.254 N/D
200 0.995 55.54 5.936 43.90 - 67.18
100 0.99 52.86 4.731 43.59 - 62.14
50 0.98 50.03 3.691 42.80 - 57.27
20 0.95 45.97 2.607 40.86 - 51.08
10 0.9 42.56 2.023 38.59 - 46.53
5 0.8 38.67 1.629 35.48 - 41.86
3 0.6667 35.31 1.428 32.51 - 38.11
2 0.5 31.95 1.305 29.39 - 34.51
1.4286 0.3 28.22 1.213 25.84 - 30.59
1.25 0.2 26.12 1.213 23.74 - 28.50
1.1111 0.1 23.42 1.324 20.82 - 26.01
1.0526 0.05 21.35 1.514 18.38 - 24.31
1.0204 0.02 19.19 1.804 15.65 - 22.72
1.0101 0.01 17.85 2.023 13.88 - 21.81
1.005 0.005 16.69 2.231 12.31 - 21.06
1.001 0.001 14.48 2.658 9.269 - 19.69
1.0005 0.0005 13.69 2.816 8.165 - 19.21
1.0001 0.0001 12.11 3.131 5.968 - 18.24