Unit 3: Phase 6 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3

Individual report

Presented by:
BRAYAN SHAMIR SIERRA FUENTES
CODE: 1.065.641.961
GROUP: 212066_30

Presented to:
Tutor: RICARDO JAVIER PINEDA

National University Open and Distance Unad

School of Basic Sciences, technology and engineering
Industrial Engineer
Cead Valledupar
2018
ms of Unit 3
 Problem 1. Markov chains (steady s

XYZ insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If
be charged for the new policy $ 1,730,000 (state 0); if you have had an accident in
2,280,000 (State 1); If you had accidents the first of the last two years you will be
accident the second of the last two years will be charged $ 1,670,000 (State 3). Th
following cases of accident, taken in four diffe

ESTADO E0 E1 E2 E3 TOTAL
E0 1585 1687 2156 1970 7398
E1 2100 2350 2670 1230 8350
E2 1750 1250 850 560 4410
E3 1279 1380 56 865 3580

ESTADO E0 E1 E2 E3
E0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1
E1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 1
E2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1
E3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 1

MATRIZ DE PROBABILIDADES DE TRANSICION

∑
W 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 = 1
X P= 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 = 1
Y 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 = 1
Z 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 = 1

EC1 0,2W-w+0,3X+0,4Y+0,4Z =0
EC2 0,2W+0,3X-x+0,3Y+0,4Z =0
EC3 0,3W+0,3X+0,2Y-y+0Z =0
EC4 0,3W+0,1X+0,1Y+0,2Z -z =0
EC5 W+X+Y+Z -1 =0

EC1 -0,8w+0,3X+0,4Y+0,4Z =0
EC2 0,2W-0,7x+0,3Y+0,4Z =0
EC3 0,3W+0,3X-0,8y+0Z =0
EC4 0,3W+0,1X+0,1Y-0,2z =0
EC5 W+X+Y+Z -1 =0

a.   What is the transition matrix resulting from proportionality

according to the accident history?

b.   What is the average premium paid by a customer in Payoff, according to

historical accident rate?

La prima promedio que se paga en la compañía es de 0,309413(us$100)+0,287046(us$400)+

arkov chains (steady state):

their accident history. If you have not had accidents the last two years will
u have had an accident in each of the last two years you will be charged $
ast two years you will be charged $ 1,650,000 (state 2) and if you had an
$ 1,670,000 (State 3). The historical behavior of each state is given by the
cident, taken in four different events.

p*q=
 EC1 0,2W+0,3X+0,4Y+0,4Z =W
q= wxyz EC2 0,2W+0,3X+0,3Y+0,4Z =X
EC3 0,3W+0,3X+0,2Y+0Z =Y
EC4 0,3W+0,1X+0,1Y+0,2Z =Z
EC5 W+X+Y+Z =1

E0 E1 E2 E3
W X Y Z
0.3094133 0.2870461 0.2236723 0.1798673 1

COEFICIENTES IGUAL A
W X Y Z INDEP
roportionality -0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0 0
0.2 -0.7 0.3 0.4 0 0
0.3 0.3 -0.8 0 0 0
0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0 0
1 1 1 1 -1 0
off, according to

9413(us$100)+0,287046(us$400)+0,223672(us$300)+0,179867(us$300)= us$ 266.82165

 Problem 2. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

In Colombia there are 5 main mobile operators such as Tigo, Comcel, Movistar, E
will call states. The following chart summarizes the odds that each client has to
operator or make a change of company.

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Tigo 0.25
Movistar 0.3, for ETB 0.1 and 0.15 for Uff (initial state).

STATE TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB

TIGO 0.18 0.28 0.19 0.18
COMCEL 0.21 0.23 0.17 0.25
MOVISTAR 0.19 0.16 0.23 0.26
ETB 0.18 0.19 0.23 0.21
UFF 0.22 0.23 0.19 0.17

current market TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF

0.25 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.15

ESTADO INICIAL
0.25 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.15

0.19500 0.21750 0.20200 0.21950 0.16600

 0.19519 0.21683 0.20251 0.21631 0.16917

0.19530 0.21693 0.20242 0.21618 0.16918

a.   Find the probability that each user stays with the mobile
company for the next period.
Teniendo en cuenta las matrices de transicion podemos observar que para

TIGO 0.25 0.19500 0.195185 0.1952966

COMCEL 0.2 0.21750 0.21683 0.21693
MOVISTAR 0.3 0.20200 0.20251 0.20242
ETB 0.1 0.21950 0.21631 0.21618
UFF 0.15 0.16600 0.16917 0.16918
ultiplication):

igo, Comcel, Movistar, ETB and Uff, which we

s that each client has to stay in their current
e of company.

market are for Tigo 0.25 for Comcel 0.2, for

5 for Uff (initial state).

UFF TOTAL
0.17 1
0.14 1
0.16 1
0.19 1
0.19 1

0.18 0.28 0.19 0.18 0.17

0.21 0.23 0.17 0.25 0.14
0.19 0.16 0.23 0.26 0.16
0.18 0.19 0.23 0.21 0.19
0.22 0.23 0.19 0.17 0.19

0.18 0.28 0.19 0.18 0.17

 0.21 0.23 0.17 0.25 0.14
0.19 0.16 0.23 0.26 0.16
0.18 0.19 0.23 0.21 0.19
0.22 0.23 0.19 0.17 0.19

0.18 0.28 0.19 0.18 0.17

0.21 0.23 0.17 0.25 0.14
0.19 0.16 0.23 0.26 0.16
0.18 0.19 0.23 0.21 0.19
0.22 0.23 0.19 0.17 0.19

ith the mobile

DISMINUYE LA PROBABILIDAD DE PERMANENCIA

AUMENTA LA PROBABILIDA DE PERMANENCIA
DISMINUYE LA PROBABILIDAD DE PERMANENCIA
AUMENTA LA PROBABILIDA DE PERMANENCIA
AUMENTA LA PROBABILIDA DE PERMANENCIA
 Problem 3. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

In Colombia there are 6 main mobile operators such as Avantel, Tigo, Comcel, Mo
and Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the odds that ea
to stay in their current operator or make a change of company.

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Avantel 0.1
for Comcel 0.15, for Movistar 0.35, for ETB 0.1 and 0.15 for Uff (initial sta

state avantel tigo comcel movistar etb

avantel 0.22 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.19
tigo 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.18
comcel 0.16 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.16
movistar 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.15
etb 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.12 0.18
uf 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.18

current market AVANTEL TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB

0.1 0.15 0.15 0.35 0.1

0.1 0.15 0.15 0.35 0.1 0.15

0.1705 0.1735 0.176 0.1695 0.1675 0.143

 0.17082 0.171685 0.17327 0.16277 0.1731 0.148355

0.17052335 0.171705 0.1732837 0.1625234 0.1733597 0.14860485

a.   Find the probability that each user stays with the mobile company for the ne

AVANTEL TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF

0.1 0.15 0.15 0.35 0.1 0.15
0.1705 0.1735 0.176 0.1695 0.1675 0.143
0.17082 0.171685 0.17327 0.16277 0.1731 0.148355
0.17052335 0.171705 0.1732837 0.1625234 0.1733597 0.14860485

para laa compañias avantel tigo comcel y etb existe un incremento de la pronbabilidad de que lus us

para las compañias Movistar y uf existe una tendencia a que la probabilidad disminuye.
 lication):

vantel, Tigo, Comcel, Movistar, ETB

marizes the odds that each client has
change of company.

market are for Avantel 0.1, Tigo 0.15

nd 0.15 for Uff (initial state).

uf
0.12
0.18
0.15
0.12
0.17
0.15

UFF
0.15

0.22 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.19 0.12

0.17 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.18
0.16 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15
0.18 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.12
0.15 0.19 0.19 0.12 0.18 0.17
0.14 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.18 0.15

0.22 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.19 0.12

 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.18
0.16 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15
0.18 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.12
0.15 0.19 0.19 0.12 0.18 0.17
0.14 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.18 0.15

0.22 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.19 0.12

0.17 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.18
0.16 0.19 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15
0.18 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.12
0.15 0.19 0.19 0.12 0.18 0.17
0.14 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.18 0.15

obile company for the next period.

de la pronbabilidad de que lus usuarios continuen usando el servicio

babilidad disminuye.
 Problem 4. Markov chains

person has bought Colombian there is a probability that they will continue to cons
Cola, 10% that Fanta buys and 30% that Coca Cola consumes; when the buyer cu
probability that he will continue to buy 30%, 20% buy Colombiana, 20% that Fa
Fanta is currently consumed, the likelihood of it continuing to be consumed is 20%
Pepsi Cola and 20% go to Coca Cola. If you currently consume Coca Cola the proba

At present, each Colombian brand, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola have the fo
respectively (30%, 25%, 15% and 30%) during w

STATE COLOMBIAN PEPSI COLA FANTA COCA COLA

COLOMBIAN 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3
PEPSI COLA 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
FANTA 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
COCA COLA 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5

MATRIZ DE PROBABILIDADES DE TRANSICION

W 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3

X P= 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Y 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
Z 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5

EC1 0,4W-W+0,2X+0,4Y+0,2Z =0
EC2 0,2W+0,3X-X+0,2Y+0,2Z =0
EC3 0,1W+0,2X+0,2Y-Y+0,1Z =0
EC4 0,3W+0,3X+0,2Y+0,5Z-Z =0
EC5 W+X+Y+Z -1 =0

EC1 -0,6W+0,2X+0,4Y+0,2Z =0
EC2 0,2W-0,7W+0,2Y+0,2Z =0
EC3 0,1W+0,2X-0,8+0,1Z =0
EC4 0,3W+0,3X+0,2Y-0,5Z =0
EC5 W+X+Y+Z -1 =0
Find the probability that each user stays with the mark or chang

At present, each Colombian brand, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Co

respectively (30%, 25%, 15%

COLOMBIAN PEPSI COLA FANTA COCA COLA

0.3 0.25 0.15 0.3

0.29 0.225 0.14 0.345

0.286 0.2225 0.1365 0.355

0.2845 0.22225 0.1359 0.3574

0.28408 0.222225 0.135815 0.3579

COLOMBIAN PEPSI COLA FANTA COCA COLA

0.3 0.25 0.15 0.3
0.29 0.225 0.14 0.345
0.286 0.2225 0.1365 0.355
0.2845 0.22225 0.1359 0.35735
0.28408 0.222225 0.135815 0.35788

Solo los usuarios que consumen coca cola presentan un incremento de probabilidad d
que continuen consumiendola, las demas marcas tieneden a bajar la probabilidad
 ains

they will continue to consume 40%, 20% of which will buy Pepsi
sumes; when the buyer currently consumes Pepsi Cola there is a
y Colombiana, 20% that Fanta consumes and 30% Coca Cola; if
ing to be consumed is 20%, 40% buy Colombian, 20% consume
nsume Coca Cola the probability that it will continue to consume is

and Coca Cola have the following percentages in market share

%, 15% and 30%) during week 3.

∑
= 1 EC1 0,4W+0,2X+0,4Y+0,2Z
= 1 q= wxyz EC2 0,2W+0,3X+0,2Y+0,2Z
= 1 EC3 0,1W+0,2X+0,2Y+0,1Z
= 1 EC4 0,3W+0,3X+0,2Y+0,5Z
EC5 W+X+Y+Z

a.   Find the transition matrix.

COEFICIENTES
W X Y Z INDEP
-0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 0
0.2 -0.7 0.2 0.2 0
0.1 0.2 -0.8 0.1 0
0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.5 0
 1 1 1 1 -1

ays with the mark or change to another for period 4

, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola have the following percentages in market share
ectively (30%, 25%, 15% and 30%) during week 3.

0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5

0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5

0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5

0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5

an un incremento de probabilidad de
as tieneden a bajar la probabilidad
 p*q=

0,4W+0,2X+0,4Y+0,2Z =W
0,2W+0,3X+0,2Y+0,2Z =X
0,1W+0,2X+0,2Y+0,1Z =Y
0,3W+0,3X+0,2Y+0,5Z =Z
W+X+Y+Z =1
 Problem 5. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

Suppose you get 6 types of Jeans brands in the Colombian market: Brand 1, Brand
Brand 4, Brand 5 and Brand 6. The following table shows the odds that you continu
same brand or change it.

At present, brand, have the following percentages in market share respectively (1

17%, 15%, 19% y 12%) during week 4.

STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5

BRAND 1 0.21 0.19 0.22 0.13 0.14
BRAND 2 0.17 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.19
BRAND 3 0.18 0.14 0.22 0.13 0.22
BRAND 4 0.21 0.16 0.15 0.22 0.17
BRAND 5 0.14 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.15
BRAND 6 0.2 0.13 0.21 0.15 0.17

MATRIZ DE PROBABILIDADES DE TRANSICION

U 0.21 0.19 0.22 0.13 0.14

V 0.17 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.19
W P= 0.18 0.14 0.22 0.13 0.22
X 0.21 0.16 0.15 0.22 0.17
Y 0.14 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.15
Z 0.2 0.13 0.21 0.15 0.17

p*q

q= uwxyz EC1 0,21U+0,17V+0,18W+0,21X+0,14Y+0,2Z =U

EC2 0,19U+0,18V+0,14W+0,16X+0,16Y+0,13Z =V
EC3 0,22U+0,15V+0,22W+0,15X+0,22Y+0,21Z =W
 EC4 0,13U+0,13V+0,13W+0,22X+0,15Y+0,17Z =X
EC5 0,14U+0,19V+0,22W+0,17X+0,15Y+0,17Z =Y
EC6 0,11U+0,18V+0,11W+0,09X+0,18Y+0,14Z =Z
EC7 U+V+W+X+Y+Z =1

0,21U-U+0,17V+0,18W+0,21X+0,14Y+0,2Z =0
0,19U+0,18V-V+0,14W+0,16X+0,16Y+0,13Z =0
0,22U+0,15V+0,22W-W+0,15X+0,22Y+0,21Z =0
0,13U+0,13V+0,13W+0,22X-X+0,15Y+0,17Z =0
0,14U+0,19V+0,22W+0,17X+0,15Y-Y+0,17Z =0
0,11U+0,18V+0,11W+0,09X+0,18Y+0,14Z-Z =0
U+V+W+X+Y+Z-1 =0

-0,79+0,17V+0,18W+0,21X+0,14Y+0,2Z =0
0,19U-0,82V+0,14W+0,16X+0,16Y+0,13Z =0
0,22U+0,15V-0,78W+0,15X+0,22Y+0,21Z =0
0,13U+0,13V+0,13W-0,78+0,15Y+0,17Z =0
0,14U+0,19V+0,22W+0,17X-0,85Y+0,17Z =0
0,11U+0,18V+0,11W+0,09X+0,18Y-0,86Z =0
U+V+W+X+Y+Z-1 =0

Find the probability that each user stays with the mark

At present, brand, have the following percentages in market s

17%, 15%, 19% y 12%) during wee

BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5

0.19 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.19

0.1832 0.1623 0.1957 0.1497 0.1726

 0.18419 0.160733 0.196795 0.149655 0.174083

0.18413558 0.16076814 0.1969274 0.14964149 0.17404705

0.18413336 0.16076647 0.19692652 0.14963828 0.17405672

BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5

0.19 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.19
0.1832 0.1623 0.1957 0.1497 0.1726
0.18419 0.160733 0.196795 0.149655 0.174083
0.18413558 0.16076814 0.1969274 0.14964149 0.17404705
0.18413336 0.16076647 0.19692652 0.14963828 0.17405672

el nrand 3 y el brand 6 presentan una alta probabilidad de que lus usuarios continuen u

para el brand 1,2 4 y 5 presentan una probabilidad desfavorable de que los usuarios con
ultiplication):

n market: Brand 1, Brand 2, Brand 3,

he odds that you continue to use the
it.

rket share respectively (19%, 18%,

g week 4.

BRAND 6
0.11
0.18
0.11
0.09
0.18
0.14

∑
0.11 = 1
0.18 = 1
0.11 = 1
0.09 = 1
0.18 = 1
0.14 = 1

+0,21X+0,14Y+0,2Z =U
+0,16X+0,16Y+0,13Z =V
0,15X+0,22Y+0,21Z =W
0,22X+0,15Y+0,17Z =X
0,17X+0,15Y+0,17Z =Y
+0,09X+0,18Y+0,14Z =Z
U+V+W+X+Y+Z =1

a.   Find the transition matrix.

COEFICIENTES
U V W X Y Z INDEP
-0.79 0.17 0.18 0.21 0.14 0.2 0
0.19 -0.82 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.13 0
0.22 0.15 -0.78 0.15 0.22 0.21 0
0.13 0.13 0.13 -0.78 0.15 0.17 0
0.14 0.19 0.22 0.17 -0.85 0.17 0
0.11 0.18 0.11 0.09 0.18 -0.86 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 -1

user stays with the mark or change to another for period 5

percentages in market share respectively (19%, 18%,

19% y 12%) during week 4.

BRAND 6
0.12 0.21 0.19 0.22 0.13 0.14
0.17 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.19
0.18 0.14 0.22 0.13 0.22
0.21 0.16 0.15 0.22 0.17
0.14 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.15
0.2 0.13 0.21 0.15 0.17

0.1365 0.21 0.19 0.22 0.13 0.14

0.17 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.19
 0.18 0.14 0.22 0.13 0.22
0.21 0.16 0.15 0.22 0.17
0.14 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.15
0.2 0.13 0.21 0.15 0.17

0.134544 0.21 0.19 0.22 0.13 0.14

0.17 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.19
0.18 0.14 0.22 0.13 0.22
0.21 0.16 0.15 0.22 0.17
0.14 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.15
0.2 0.13 0.21 0.15 0.17

0.13448034 0.21 0.19 0.22 0.13 0.14

0.17 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.19
0.18 0.14 0.22 0.13 0.22
0.21 0.16 0.15 0.22 0.17
0.14 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.15
0.2 0.13 0.21 0.15 0.17

0.13447864

BRAND 6
0.12
0.1365
0.134544
0.13448034
0.13447864

d de que lus usuarios continuen usandolos, ya que su probabilidad aumenta

sfavorable de que los usuarios continuen con ellos ya que su probabilidad decrece
0.11
0.18
0.11
0.09
0.18
0.14

0.11
0.18
0.11
0.09
0.18
0.14

0.11
0.18
0.11
0.09
0.18
0.14

0.11
0.18
0.11
0.09
0.18
0.14