SD-34 (Klein)

District Analysis

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SD-34 District Map
AD-78: Rivera
AD-80: Gjonaj
AD-81: Dinowitz
AD-82: Benedetto
AD-84: Arroyo
AD-85: Crespo
AD-87: Sepulveda
AD-88: Paulin
AD-89: Pretlow

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SD-34 Council Map (Bronx)
CD-11: Cohen
CD-12: King
CD-13: Vacca
CD-15: Torres
CD-17: Salamanca
CD-18: Palma
CD-22: Constantinides

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 SD-34 Primary Turnout & Targeting
Likely Voters by CD

Likely Voters Pres Gov Mayor/West

2018 2016 2014 2013

Voters 25,734 35,479 14,168 21,212

 The likely voter pool is larger than probable turnout because of higher
primary participation in non-state races.

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 SD-34 Primary Turnout & Targeting
Likely Voters by Race/Ethnicity

White Latino Black Asian Uncoded

Total LVs 13,064 7,666 4,285 610 109

% of LVs 51% 30% 17% 2% 0%

 SD-34 will likely feature a majority white but diverse primary

electorate.
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 SD-34 Primary Turnout & Targeting
Likely Voters by Demographic

Group LVs Share

Non-White 12,545 49%

White College 7,013 27%

White Non-College 4,055 16%

Jewish 1,999 8%

White under 25 122 0%

Total 25,734 100%

 A candidate who can appeal to ethnic working class and college-

educated whites while making inroads with communities of color
will present a tough challenge to Klein.
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 Election Analysis:
2016 State Senate Primary

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 2014 Benchmark Poll
Horserace
70%

60% 58%
54%
50%
44%
40% 39% 42%
38%
39%
30%
30%
28%
20% 23%

10%

0%
Uninformed Informed Klein Neg Koppell Neg Koppell Pos
Klein Koppell

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 SD-34 Primary Turnout
By Race/Ethnicity

2014 Gov 2016 Pres

Race
Primary Share Primary Share

White 58% 47%

Latino 25% 34%
Black 15% 15%
Asian 2% 3%
Uncoded 0% 0%
Total 100% 100%

 Primary turnout in 2014 was whiter than in the 2016 Presidential primary.

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 2014 Senate Primary Results
Top Koppell Neighborhoods

% of Turnout Koppell Klein

Kingsbridge 17% 54% 46%

Van Cortlandt Village 6% 53% 47%

Riverdale 19% 51% 49%

Mount Vernon 3% 49% 51%

Pelham 2% 48% 52%

 Koppell performed best in his old Council district and the small
Westchester piece of the Senate district.
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 2014 Senate Primary Results
Top Klein Neighborhoods

% of Turnout Klein Koppell

Bronxdale 7% 84% 16%
Soundview 9% 84% 16%
Throgsneck 9% 84% 16%
Unionport 4% 84% 16%
Van Nest 2% 84% 16%
Allerton 3% 78% 22%
Pelham Bay 7% 77% 23%
Pelham Parkway 8% 77% 23%
Woodlawn 2% 64% 36%
Bedford Park 2% 63% 37%

 Klein won by large margins in smaller neighborhoods throughout the rest off
the district, demonstrating that a challenger will need to fight for votes ED
by ED with a strong field campaign
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SD-34 AD Map (Bronx)
AD-78: Rivera
AD-80: Gjonaj
AD-81: Dinowitz
AD-82: Benedetto
AD-84: Arroyo
AD-85: Crespo
AD-87: Sepulveda

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 2014 Senate Primary Results
By Assembly District

% of Turnout Klein Koppell

78 – Rivera 4% 72% 28%
80 – Gjonaj 17% 80% 20%
81 – Dinowitz 44% 48% 52%
82 – Benedetto 18% 82% 18%
85 – Crespo 7% 85% 15%
87 – Sepulveda 5% 82% 18%
88 – Paulin 3% 52% 48%
89 – Pretlow 2% 51% 49%
Total 100% 65% 35%
 Koppell won in areas encompassing about half of the district, but
couldn’t cut into Klein’s margins elsewhere.
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SD-34 Council Map (Bronx)
CD-11: Cohen
CD-12: King
CD-13: Vacca
CD-15: Torres
CD-17: Salamanca
CD-18: Palma
CD-22: Constantinides

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 2014 Senate Primary Results
By Council District

CD % of Turnout Klein Koppell

11 – Cohen 49% 49% 51%
13 – Vacca 34% 81% 19%
15 – Torres 4% 78% 22%
17 – Salamanca 1% 83% 17%
18 – Palma 12% 84% 16%
Total 100% 66% 34%

 Koppell won the largest overlapping Council District, but was blown
out everywhere else.
 Jimmy Vacca would clearly be the best candidate against Klein.

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Election Analysis:
Other Primaries

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 Gov & Presidential Primary Results
Cuomo vs. Clinton Performance
2014 Sanders Teachout Koppell
Share 2016 2014 2014
78 – Rivera 4% 36% 19% 28%
80 – Gjonaj 17% 38% 19% 20%
81 – Dinowitz 44% 39% 37% 52%
82 – Benedetto 18% 45% 23% 18%
85 – Crespo 7% 30% 12% 15%
87 – Sepulveda 5% 31% 13% 18%
88 – Paulin 3% 33% 46% 48%
89 – Pretlow 2% 34% 39% 49%
Total 100% 38% 28% 35%

 There’s a sizable base for a progressive, insurgent candidate (about 1/3 of

the district).
 A challenger to Klein would have to lock in that group’s support and then
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make headway among “regular” Democrats and/or voters of color.
 Conclusions
• Klein is formidable, but vulnerable
– Polling has shown that an anti-IDC message resonates in the district,
and a challenger will have a substantial progressive base to build on
– Beating Klein will requiring adding voters of color and/or “regular”
Dems to the challenger’s electoral coalition

• A lot has changed since 2014

– Koppell put up a strong challenge to Klein, but state-level voter
engagement and awareness of the IDC was nowhere near the level it’s
at today

• Grassroots organizing must start now

– A successful candidate must start building her coalition of support
soon to harness grassroots energy for both fundraising and campaign
infrastructure.
Thank You

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