New York State Senate

2018 Campaign Outlook

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Special Election Analysis

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 Special Election Results

On April 24, Democrats won two special

elections – once again giving our party a
numerical majority of Senate seats:
– SD-32 (Luis Sepulveda): 90% victory
– SD-37 (Shelley Mayer): 57% victory

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 SD-37 Special Campaign Spending
As of 11-Day Pre-Special Filing

$2,500,000

$2,000,000
$1,351,945
$1,500,000

$164,610
$1,000,000
$643,016
$500,000 $895,842

$375,572
$0 $142,207
Mayer Killian
Campaign Committee IE

 All data is derived from publicly disclosed campaign finance filings.

 Republicans and their allies tried hard to win this seat, outspending
Democrats 2-1 as of the 11-Day Pre-Special filing.
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 SD-37 Special Election Analysis

The competitive SD-37 special showed a pathway

for more Democratic gains in November,
especially in the suburbs:
– Sufficient funding to run a competitive campaign
– A strong candidate with an electoral base and broad
coalition of support
– A winning message that appeals to swing voters
– A robust grassroots field effort to mobilize Democratic
base voters

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 SD-37 Special Election Analysis
Results by Assembly District

2018
Assembly Mayer Latimer Clinton Latimer Latimer
% of
District 2018 2017 2016 2016 2014
Turnout
88 – Paulin 23% 54% 46% 56% 51% 47%
89 – Pretlow 3% 48% 39% 55% 55% 49%
90 – Mayer 18% 50% 41% 53% 52% 45%
91 – Otis 37% 65% 63% 66% 64% 63%
93 – Buchwald 20% 55% 49% 58% 52% 49%
Total 100% 57% 51% 59% 56% 52%

 Shelley Mayer won the SD-37 special election with the largest margin for a
Democratic Senate candidate since the district was drawn
 She outperformed past off-year Dem numbers in her own Assembly district
(AD-90) while building on George Latimer’s base in his old seat (AD-91) 6
 SD-37 Special Election Analysis
A Winning Message

 The Mayer campaign showed a clear messaging roadmap

for Democratic candidates in suburban districts:
– Trump
• Donald Trump is wildly unpopular in the suburbs and Democrats are
motivated to vote this year as a sign of resistance
– Taxes
• Thanks to the Trump Tax Plan, suburban voters now trust Democrats
as much as Republicans on taxes – their top issue
– Gun Safety
• In the wake of Parkland and the broader national conversation on
guns, voters are identifying gun safety as their top concern after taxes

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 SD-37 Special Election Analysis
Unprecedented Volunteer Energy

Shelley Mayer’s campaign recruited nearly

3,000 volunteers before GOTV:
– Doors Knocked: 90,000
– Phone Calls: 115,000
– Voters Contacted: 30,000

In the campaign’s last 5 days, volunteers

knocked on 70,000 doors in a historic GOTV
effort

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Post-Special Election Landscape

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 A Changing Senate Landscape

Pre-Special Elections Post-Special Elections

1 1

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31
31 31

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8

Dem Dem (Vacant) IDC GOP Felder Dem GOP Felder

 With a unified Democratic Conference under Andrea Stewart-Cousins,

Senate Democrats only need to net one seat in November to form a
governing majority 10
 DSCC vs SRCC
2016 vs. 2018 COH
$2,500,000

$2,000,000

$1,500,000
DSCC
$1,000,000 SRCC

$500,000

$0
2016 2018
 As of the 11-Day Pre-Special filing, the SRCC is in significantly worse
financial shape than it was two years ago
 DSCC was already on track to exceed 2016 cycle fundraising, and our
prospects look even brighter after two special election wins
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 2018 Campaign Overview

 Blue Wave is Coming

– In an anti-Trump midterm election, Senate Dems were
already poised to pick up seats in 2018
– That was before 5 Republican Senators announced they
would not seek re-election
 GOP Stretched Thin
– Now Senate Republicans – with fewer resources – will have
to spend to defend these open seats in addition to their
other vulnerable incumbents
 A Favorable Map for Dems
– Democrats have a host of offensive opportunities and
relatively few tough defensive races

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 2018 Battleground Districts
Defensive Races

Clinton Cuomo Obama

Senate District D/W R/C
2016 2014 2012

SD-08 (Brooks) 39% 35% 50% 52% 56%

 John Brooks is our top defensive priority, and Senate Dems are confident we
can hold the seat due to: Long Island’s shift to the left since Trump’s
election; ongoing Oyster Bay Republican corruption scandals; and Brooks’
solid record on taxes and ethics

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 2018 Battleground Districts
Finding a Competitive Advantage

In 2018, DSCC will primarily seek to build on

recent electoral trends by:
– Focusing on districts won by Hillary Clinton in
2016
– Taking advantage of partisan polarization by
competing in seats with a significant Democratic
enrollment edge

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 2018 Battleground Districts
Districts Clinton Won
Clinton Trump Cuomo
SD Member Region
2016 2016 2014
SD-55 Funke Rochester 56% 38% 47%
SD-07 Phillips Long Island 55% 42% 56%
SD-56 Robach Rochester 54% 41% 51%
SD-40 Murphy Hudson Valley 52% 45% 46%
SD-05 Marcellino Long Island 50% 47% 50%
SD-06 Hannon Long Island 50% 47% 51%
SD-50 DeFrancisco Syracuse 50% 45% 49%
SD-41 Serino Hudson Valley 49% 47% 45%

 Clinton won 8 Republican-held seats in New York, mostly in the New

York City suburbs
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 2018 Battleground Districts
Partisan Advantage

D/W % Of R/C % of
SD Region Dem Edge
Enrollment Enrollment

SD-22 (Golden) NYC 50% 22% +28%

SD-60 (Jacobs) Buffalo 46% 30% +16%

SD-56 (Robach) Rochester 43% 29% +14%

SD-07 (Phillips) Long Island 40% 30% +10%

SD-55 (Funke) Rochester 39% 32% +7%

SD-39 (Larkin) Hudson Valley 39% 33% +6%

 If anger at Trump drives Democrats out to the polls and back into
their partisan corner, Senate Dems could find opportunities in Dem-
leaning districts with historically popular GOP incumbents
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 2018 Top Pickup Opportunities
GOP Retirement Seats
Clinton Cuomo Obama
Senate District D/W R/C
2016 2014 2012

SD-03 (Croci) 36% 33% 45% 49% 55%

SD-39 (Larkin) 39% 33% 46% 45% 51%

SD-42 (Bonacic) 37% 32% 45% 39% 54%

SD-43 (Marchione) 30% 35% 46% 37% 53%

SD-50 (DeFrancisco) 33% 35% 50% 49% 55%

 If Assemblyman James Skoufis runs in SD-39, he will enter the race as

the immediate favorite
 SDs 42 and 50 are both swing districts that were practically off-limits
to Dems because of personally popular GOP incumbents 17
 2018 Top Pickup Opportunities
Suburban & NYC Incumbents
Clinton Cuomo Obama
Senate District D/W R/C
2016 2014 2012
SD-04 (Boyle) 36% 34% 44% 47% 52%

SD-05 (Marcellino) 35% 34% 50% 50% 49%

SD-06 (Hannon) 38% 36% 50% 51% 55%

SD-07 (Phillips) 40% 30% 55% 56% 54%

SD-22 (Golden) 50% 22% 48% 58% 52%

SD-40 (Murphy) 37% 32% 52% 46% 51%

 SDs 5, 7, and 40 are 3 of just 4 GOP-held Senate districts where

Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama’s numbers
 Senate Dems received 49% of the vote in SD-5 and SD-7 in 2016
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 2018 Top Pickup Opportunities
Hudson Valley & Upstate Incumbents
Clinton Cuomo Obama
Senate District D/W R/C
2016 2014 2012
SD-41 (Serino) 36% 31% 49% 45% 53%

SD-46 (Amedore) 35% 31% 45% 38% 54%

SD-55 (Funke) 40% 31% 56% 47% 56%

SD-56 (Robach) 43% 29% 54% 47% 59%

SD-60 (Jacobs) 46% 29% 50% 53% 56%

SD-61 (Ranzenhofer) 38% 37% 47% 45% 50%

 Democrats have held SDs 41, 46, 55, and 60 in recent years
 Partisan polarization will put districts with large Dem registration
advantages but popular GOP incumbents back in play
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Conclusions

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 Conclusions

 Special election wins show roadmap for 2018

– Senate Dems enter the fall campaigns with momentum, key
lessons for future victories

 GOP is on the ropes

– Republican Senators are retiring in droves, GOP fundraising is
down, and the party will have to defend 10-15 seats in
November with few real pickup chances

 Senate Dems poised for lasting majority

– Democrats only need to pick up one seat to form a governing
majority, and have a favorable map with many pickup
opportunities and few tough defensive races

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Thank You

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