Production

Size of
Batch Production
20 1.4
30 3.4
40 4.1
50 3.8 14
70 6.7
80 6.6 12
100 7.8
120 10.4 10
150 11.7 Cost of 8
Batch
6

0
0 20 40 60

3780

Obtain ∑x2 , ∑xy, and ∑y2

Size of Cost of
Batch Batch X2 Y2 XY
(x) (y)

20 1 400.00 1.96 28.00

30 3 900.00 11.56 102.00
40 4 1,600.00 16.81 164.00
50 4 2,500.00 14.44 190.00
70 7 4,900.00 44.89 469.00
80 7 6,400.00 43.56 528.00
100 8 10,000.00 60.84 780.00
120 10 14,400.00 108.16 1,248.00
150 12 22,500.00 136.89 1,755.00
Total 660.00 55.90 63,600.00 439.11 5,264.00
Average 73.33 6.21 7,066.67 48.79 584.89 5264
73.3333333 6.21111111 7066.66666667 48.79 584.88889
b 5,264.00 4,099.33 1,164.67
63,600.00 48,400.00 15,200.00 0.08
a 6.21 5.62 0.59

14
 y = 0.59 + 0.08x
Size of Cost of 14
Batch Batch
(x) (y) x y
12
20 1 10.13 2.19 1
30 3 35.13 2.99 0
40 4 43.88 3.79 0 10
50 4 40.13 4.59 1
70 7 76.38 6.19 -1 8
80 7 75.13 6.99 0
100 8 90.13 8.59 1 6
120 10 122.63 10.19 0
150 12 138.88 12.59 1 4

X Y 0
6 5 0.00 20.00
10 3
14 7
19 8
21 12
70 35
14 7

Coefficient of Correlation
num 47,376.00 36,894.00 10,482.00
de 369.86 28.76 10,637.59 0.985
 Production

40 60 80
Size of Batch 100 120 140 160

14
14

12

10

0
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00
 x y
Time Enrollment
1 907
2 981
3 1014 Linear Trend of Enrollment
4 1015 1400

No. of Student Enrolled

5 1050
6 1071 1200
7 1123
1000
8 1118
9 1175 800
10 1216
600
400
200
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Time

Time Enrollment y = 900.2 - 30.33t

ty t2 y2 Linear Trend of Enrollme
t y
1 907 907 1 822649 1 930.53
2 981 1962 4 962361 2 960.86
3 1014 3042 9 1028196 3 991.19
4 1015 4060 16 1030225 4 1021.52
5 1050 5250 25 1102500 5 1051.85
6 1071 6426 36 1147041 6 1082.18
7 1123 7861 49 1261129 7 1112.51
8 1118 8944 64 1249924 8 1142.84
9 1175 10575 81 1380625 9 1173.17
10 1216 12160 100 1478656 10 1203.5
Total 55.00 10,670.00 61,187.00 385.00 11,463,306.00
Average 5.50 1,067.00 6,118.70 38.50 1,146,330.60

What is the value of the slope

b = ∑ty - n (Ave t * Ave y)
61,187.00 58685 2,502.00
∑t2 - n Ave t2 385.00 302.5 82.50 30.33

a = Ave y - b Ave t 1,067.00 30.33 5.50 900.2

Y = a - bx
y = 900.2 - 30.33x

Coefficient of correlation
n∑ty - ∑t∑y 611870 586850 25,020.00
Sqrt ((n∑x2 – (∑x)2)(n∑y2 – 28.72281323
(∑y 885.528091 25,434.86 0.984
f Enrollment

Enrollment

8 10 12

Linear Trend of Enrollment

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
CYNTHIA M FERRER
MSEM

P5. Use the Problem P4 to create the following two naïve forecast:
a. Use the actual value in the previous period to forecast the amount which will be spent on advertising apparel and
accessories in January of Year 5.

Total #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

Average #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
b. Use the actual value in the same month of the previous year to forecast the amount which will be spent on
advertising apparel and accessories for January of Year 5.

Year Month Actual Cost Forecast

1 January 6.7
February 6.2 6.7
March 12.1 6.2
April 14.4 12.1
May 11.1 14.4
June 7.4 11.1
July 6.4 7.4
August 12.9 6.4
September 21.1 12.9
October 15.4 21.1
November 16.5 15.4
December 11.6 16.5
2 January 7.9 11.6
February 8.4 7.9
March 15.1 8.4
April 15.9 15.1
May 11.8 15.9
June 5.5 11.8
July 7.6 5.5
August 13 7.6
September 23.2 13
October 17.2 23.2
November 16.7 17.2
December 11.9 16.7
3 January 8.8 11.9
February 10.3 8.8
March 20.4 10.3
April 17.3 20.4
May 15.7 17.3
June 9 15.7
July 8.9 9
August 20 8.9
September 32.6 20
October 24.2 32.6
November 22 24.2
December 16.9 22
4 January 7.4 16.9
February 17.4 7.4
March 26.1 17.4
April 26.6 26.1
CYNTHIA M FERRER
MSEM

May 17 26.6
June 10.4 17
July 7.9 10.4
August 24.7 7.9
September 35.6 24.7
October 24.8 35.6
November 22.2 24.8
December 19.8 22.2
5 January 7.4 19.8

P6. Use the data for Problem P4 to complete the following:

a. Construct the worksheet for single-factor exponential smoothing with a = 0.20 to obtain the forecasts for the month
of February through December of Year 1. Assume that the forecast for January of Year 1 is the same as the actual for
January of Year 1.
Ft = a (At - 1) + (1 - a ) Ft-1

Forecast
Year Month Actual Values Demand
1 Jan 6.7 6.70 Actual vs
Feb 6.2 6.70 25
Mar 12.1 6.60
Apr 14.4 7.70 20
May 11.1 9.04
Jun 7.4 9.45 15
Jul 6.4 9.04
Aug 12.9 8.51 10
Sep 21.1 9.39
Oct 15.4 11.73 5

Nov 16.5 12.47

0
Dec 11.6 13.27 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Actua l Val ues
a 0.2
Initial Forecast = 6.7

b. Draw the graph of the actual values and the forecasted values

25

20

15

Actual Values
10
Forecast
Demand
 15
CYNTHIA M FERRER
MSEM
Actual Values
10
Forecast
Demand

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
 CYNTHIA M FERRER
MSEM

dvertising apparel and

will be spent on
 CYNTHIA M FERRER
MSEM

e forecasts for the months

e same as the actual for

Actual vs Forecast
25

20

15

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Actual V
Actua l Val ues Forecast Dema
10 nd
Forecast
Demand

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CYNTHIA M FERRER
MSEM
 CYNTHIA M FERRER
MSEM

Actual Values

Forecast
Demand

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

CYNTHIA M FERRER
MSEM
 Produced in
Price Manpower No. of Days No. of Man-Hours
May
a b c d e = (c x d) x 8 hrs

Window
$ 40 1,728 12 9 864
Fans
864

Produced in
Price Manpower No. of Days No. of Man-Hours
May
a b c d e = (c x d) x 8 hrs

(12 x 11 x 8) -
Desk Fan $ 25 1,872 12 11 (2 *1 * 8) =
1,040 mhrs.
1056
16
1040

Produced in Direct
Price No. of Days No. of Man-Hours
May Material Cost
a b c d e = (c x d) x 8 hrs

Window
$ 40 1,728 $7 9 (12 x 9 x 8) = 864
Fans

(12 x 11 x 8) -
Desk Fan $ 25 1,872 $5 11 (2 *1 * 8) =
1,040 mhrs.

18144 12096 0.0484848485

21840 9360 0.0495238095

Produced in
Price Manpower No. of Days No. of Man-Hours
May
a b c d e = (c x d) x 8 hrs

Window (12 x 10 x 8) =
$ 40 1,730 12 10
Fans 960
 960

1.8020833333
-0.1979166667
-0.0989583333
-9.8958333333