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Considering macro-economic and firm specific factors the forecasts shown appear to be
overly optimistic. The following reasons can be cited for this:
o Revenue growth: It is forecasted that the company will achieve positive and
constant growth from 2014. However, macro and firm specific factors do not
indicate this:
Newspaper circulations have been dropping over the 5 years for 2005 to
2010 (From exhibit 1 of Case). The trend is not expected to reverse with
the newspaper industry facing stiff competition from TV and radio
broadcasting as well as digital media. MEG’s own newspapers have faced
declining circulations (exhibit 5) over the 10 years between 2001 and
2011
Advertising revenue has also shown a steep decline in the years between
2005 and 2010
Newsprint and pulp – key inputs for the newspaper industries, have
decreased in price after reaching highs in 2008 and 2010 (exhibit 2)
respectively, but are still around or higher than the 10 year average.
How much value, if any, does Buffett derive from the credit agreement?
What should MEG’s CEO Marshall Morton do? What are his options?
MEG has to create a short term strategy to fund a $225 mn loan which is due in 8 days’
time.
MEG needs to find a long term strategy to manage its print media which is making
substantial losses
MEG needs to restructure its debt. Currently, interest expense is one of the highest
expenses for MEG.
Option Feasibility
Sell the newspaper Most preferred route under the circumstance. The print industry is
division declining and MEG has not been able to turn around ths segment.
Moreover a ready buyer, BH, has already expressed interest.
Newspaper business has been characterized to be in steady decline
due to changing readership patterns and competition from other
media. The company should concentrate on its broadcasting and
digital media segments which is cost effective and >>>>>>
Sell the broadcasting or Both these segments together accounted for 51% of total revenue for MEG
digital media division in 2010 and 2011. While the print media industry is declining (revenue
segment declined 43% in 5 years between 2007 and 2011), the
broadcasting and digital media are considered to be growth areas. MEG
should hold on to these segments and attempt to grow inorganically to
increase market share.
Restructure debt MEG has a Debt to Capital ratio of 95% and is $658 mn in debt. Keeping
in mind that MEG is highly leveraged and already has a CCC+ or a
speculative bond rating, it will be difficult for MEG to restructure its debt
to get easier financing options.
Issue new equity Issuing new equity will help the firm recapitalize towards a more optimal
capital structure. However considering that the share price of the firm is at
a historical low, this method is not optimal to get additional funding.
Declare bankruptcy MEG can file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy but this option should be taken
only as a last resort. It is a costly and time consuming option which has to
maintain strict oversight by the creditors.
BH offer: Keeping in mind the extremely limited time within which the company has to
pay its debt or go into default, the CEO should accept BH’s offer of debt infusion and
buying the newspaper division. This will give MEG time to implement a long term
strategy to develop its broadcasting and media divisions.
Capital structure: While industry average (0% debt companies excluded) D/V ratio is
approximately 40% MEG has a ratio of 82%. MEG has to decrease this and bring it to the
levels of the industry average.
Sale of Tampa: Keeping Tampa after selling the rest of the newspaper division does not
make sense. MEG should focus on a long term strategy of developing its broadcasting
and digital media segments and in line with this should attempt to sell Tampa as well. A
sale at current valuations will yield _____ and can help MEG pay off debt and bring its
capital structure to more optimal levels.
Consolidate position in through M&A: MEG should explore opportunities to merge
with mid-sized media companies, focused into broadcasting and digital media. A merger
would help MEG to consolidate its position in this industry and possibly achieve a better
credit rating. A better credit rating will in turn help MEG refinance the loan from BH at
more affordable interest rates.
APPENDIX
d1 = 4.543738
N (d1) = 0.9999972
d2 = 3.285088
N (d2) = 0.9994902
CAPM
Market risk premium 6.00%
Risk free rate 1.76% 10 year government bonds
Equity beta 2.29%
Required rate of return 15.50% From CAPM
5. WACC calculation
All figures in $ mn
1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
EBIT*(1-Tax) $9.2 $8.9 $13.8 $18.3 $19.5
Non cash charges $20.0 $16.0 $12.0 $9.0 $6.0
Capex $5.0 $5.5 $5.9 $6.0 $6.0
Changes in Net working
Capital $14.4 -$0.2 $0.3 $0.3 $0.3
FCFF $9.9 $19.6 $19.7 $21.0 $19.2
Discounted FCFF 9.154007 16.87249 271.9044624
$ mn
Initial
outlay 354
NPV 59.44
Payments Discount PVCF ($ Payments ($ Discount PVCF ($
Q ($ mn) factor mn) Q mn) factor mn)