NOTE:

Responses to 1.5oC question

Author: Catherine Murupaenga-Ikenn
Date: 1 December 2018

PURPOSE
1. This note responds to a query from a colleague (dated 23 November 2018) which asks:

“You said in your February 2018 report "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change is wrong: keeping global temperatures below 1.5°C is not possible now".[…]
What is the basis for your assertion that the IPCC is wrong? Can you please provide
the evidence for that assertion. Thanks.”

EVIDENCE FOR ASSERTION RE 1.5oC NOW NOT POSSIBLE

"If you really look seriously at the feasibility, it looks like it will be very hard to reach
the 1.5C,".

"I am relatively sceptical that we can meet 1.5C, even with an overshoot. Scientists can
dream up that is feasible, but it's a pipedream."
Prof Arthur Petersen, University College London,
former IPCC member.1

“The window of opportunity for action is almost closed”.

- Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General,
World Meteorological Organization2

2. My assertion is based on no single piece of data, and not on a linear approach to

problem-solving. Rather, my assertion is based on taking a complex system approach
and from triangulating a variety of different data sources over a period of time, e.g.:

2.1 Increasing expert:

a. doubt expressed about the feasibility of maintaining the 1.5oC limit3: e.g.
according to the ninth annual UN Environment Programme “Emissions Gap
Report” report (November 2018)4 “emissions by 2030 will need to be around 25
percent lower than 2017 levels to limit global warming to 2C, and 55 percent
lower to limit the rise to 1.5C[…] If the emissions gap is not closed by 2030, it is
very plausible that the goal of a well below 2C temperature rise increase is also
out of reach"5; or

b. admission that humanity has already passed the 1.5oC threshold due to carbon
dioxide6 and other tipping points breached (or on the verge),7 e.g.:

i. as of October 2018 the IPCC warned that humanity must act even faster
than previously as:
 “[1.5oC] could be reached in as little as 11 years — and almost
certainly within 20 years without major cuts in carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions. Even if such cuts were to begin immediately it would only
delay, not prevent, [1.5oC] of global warming.”8 [my emphasis];

2.2 Recognition of the impotency of the Paris Agreement and its mechanisms, in particular
the way in which the IPCC’s reports are produced – including the political nature of the
reports, divergent scientific opinion regarding crucial factors such as tipping points, and
(equally important) what it omitted from the reports9;

2.3 Acknowledgement that humanity has some formidable mobilizing barriers to overcome
to achieve our climate mitigation / adaptation aspirations – the most difficult challenges
arguably being:

a. local, domestic and international politics which typically makes progress at a

glacial pace and is increasingly corrupt; and
b. so-called economic constraints; and

2.4 Indigenous peoples’10 and scientists’11 mixed feelings of hopelessness.

3. The upshot is this: keeping the average global temperature warming to 1.5oC may/ may
not be technically feasible according to ‘the science’. However, supporting science is
necessary, but insufficient: from political, economic and social psychology standpoints,
achieving the level of ‘all of society’ mobilisation required is highly unlikely within the
12 year time-frame.

United Nations Failures

Structural problems

4. While obviously there are policy achievements to be grateful for, the United Nations
continues to be criticised for its inability to create or facilitate meaningful systemic
change, or enduring outcomes for those in true need. On the assumption that the way
the UN conducts its internal business reflects its outer results, this is easy to see:

“ “I think there has been incremental progress but I don’t think we can say
there’s been a fundamental change in the way the UN does business[…] What
we have now is another multiplication of targets and goals […] but there’s no
operational clarity around them.” ”12

4.1 In addition to structural impediments, the UN member States themselves are often at
odds:
“G77 countries say that behind claims of greater efficiency and modern
management methods, wealthier nations are tightening their grip on the
UN.[…]

Officials and diplomats of all kinds bemoan a lack of assertive leadership.

[…] “It would be great to see what difference a strong secretary general
would make,” said one top official. “We all say it knowing that it is unlikely
that we will ever get one because the stronger member states have such an
 interest in not having a strong secretary general. They want a secretary
general they are able to influence, lobby.” ”13

The Paris agreement

4.2 While celebrated as a milestone, this agreement is a fitting microcosmic example of the
failed UN macrocosm. Many criticise the agreement as (among other things)14:
a. Not legally binding;
b. Not providing an action plan, especially how to keep the required levels of fossil
fuels in the ground (this was the impetus for the rise of non-governmental
responses such as the “Drawdown project”15;
c. Relying primarily on a greenhouse gas reducing mechanism, the INDCs (Intended
Nationally Determined Contributions), which even if implemented “will not
decrease CO2 emissions, will not keep global warming below 2 degrees C, and will
not mean the end of fossil fuels.”16 (And bear in mind, successive warnings have
already been issued over the years that a 2oC ‘event horizon’ could arrive sooner
than earlier predictions of 205017); and
d. Having a design that was overly-influenced by disingenuous corporate agendas18
(therefore the agreement itself is arguably a disingenuous, dumbed-down version
of what it ought to be).
4.3 In that context, it’s hard to see how countries will be compelled to take all necessary
action to prevent breaching the 1.5oC threshold.
IPCC report
4.4 Similarly with successive IPCC reporting which has been criticised for dumbing down
the truth19 since reporting began. And the latest special 1.5oC report summary has also
been slammed for leaving out critical information for policy makers20 (who, many
suspect, don’t have time to read the full report).

Mobilisation barriers/ impotent society

“As well as the science, there is also the politics.[...] the report will likely say that it
can be done, if the world is willing to take some very tough steps.[...]"There is no easy
answer; it is a much more complicated answer,"[...] "It has physical elements, it has
social elements, it has political elements.”
- Prof Jim Skea, Co-chair, IPCC Working Group III21

Politics non-responsive to the will of the people

“[S]ince the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in 1990: Each
report says we have to start reducing greenhouse gas emissions immediately. Although
estimated CO2 emissions have recently flattened, measured greenhouse gas
concentrations not only have not decreased, they have continued to increase at an
accelerating rate.”

“Barring a drastic change in policy, we will not get anywhere near 100 % renewables
by 2050.”
- Earl J Ritchie, Lecturer, Department of Construction Management,
 University of Houston22

5. There is a continuing trend globally of people’s growing mistrust in State institutions,23

perhaps now reaching crisis levels,24 and for good reason. As with the UN,
Governments face a culture of politics that diminishes the prospects for real change25:
“Western politicians have relatively short political horizons; they are often in
office for terms of less than five years. So they find their duties regularly
interrupted by elections that distract from the job of addressing long-term policy
challenges. As a result, politicians are naturally and rationally drawn to focus
their efforts on seducing their electorates with short-term sweeteners — including
economic policies designed to quickly produce favorable monthly inflation,
unemployment, and GDP numbers.[…]

Because democratic systems encourage such short-termism, it will be difficult to

solve many of the seemingly intractable structural problems […] without an
overhaul of democracy.”

5.1 For example, research shows26 that the USA Government more than ever ignores the
will of the ordinary people,27 and instead is greatly influenced by the elite class and
corporations, arguably reducing the nation to a “corrupt oligarchy”28:

“economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have

substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average
citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent
influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-
Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of
Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism.” 29

5.2 This extinguishment of participatory democracy in the USA is problematic as it reflects

citizens’ perceptions in other countries (including New Zealand30) and is a key
barometer for global trends.

5.3 So on the one hand, citizens’ awareness of climate crisis, and associated demands for
urgent, transformation action,31 are increasing. The bad news is that Governments are
impotent32 with “weak state institutions”,33 and/ or actively listening to powerful rival
corporate and industry interests.34 These forces are not only representing the sector
largely responsible for our climate demise,35 they actively lobby36 to retain the Life-
destroying status quo and undermine attempts to make meaningful action. As a result,
only relatively superficial change is made, while the root causes of our climate
catastrophe (primarily systemic capitalistic economic violence against the biosphere
and society37) push on relentlessly. Governments have consistently failed to correctly
handle and prevent other highly significant crises from cyclically re-occurring, like
economic recessions and depressions. Confidence is therefore low that Governments
can, in this time of not just one but many converging significant crises, respond
collaboratively in any time-frame that matters.

5.4 The unprecedented rise in social justice and environmental defence NGOs38 gives cause
to hope, as citizens have been able to force some nominal policy changes and climate
progress with their Governments. However, this is at the same time discouraging,
because our climate situation has continued to decline regardless of the apparent surge
 in pockets of disjointed civic climate action: the net gain in terms of climate mitigation
/ adaptation is simply not enough.

5.5 Worse, climate crisis is a “threat multiplier”,39 which could increase the chances of
political and socio-economic instability and conflict.40 As Governments (with limited
capacity) become increasingly and chronically occupied with reacting to climate-
related emergencies, it is predicted they will have less capability and attention to give to
effectively and urgently responding with mitigation and adaptation measures.

Economics

“[T]here remains the apparent contradiction between the ethos of global capitalisation,
which requires waste and redundancy, and a manageable future world with
containable climate change.”
- Al Jazeera.41

6. Associated with the disconnect between policy and citizens’ aspirations, indicators of
environmental42 and social decline43 make it horrifically obvious that Governments are
failing to fulfil their obligation of correctly prioritizing or budgeting their activities44 in
the interests of the wellbeing of their citizens.

6.1 A key factor is the structural violence and profoundly life-destroying effects of rigged
capitalistic economic operating systems (particularly the post 1980’s neo liberal brand).
These are built on a web of profit-driven corporate entities, and various market-based
apparatuses (e.g. the emissions trading scheme, in terms of a climate change response),
both of which Governments seem to be incapable of decoupling from.45 This situation
has led eminent experts to label so-called leaders’ ongoing devotion to these systems as
economic “suicide”46 and to condemn corporations (now the foundation of practically
all economic activity) as psychotic47 and pathological.48

6.2 Another (more subtle, but none-the-less revealing) indicator of an impending perilous
(i.e. 2oC+) climate scenario in the near term is the number of super wealthy elites who
are preparing apocalyptic bunkers and boltholes in countries predicted to be a more
safer bet in a climate-hostile future.49 A percentage are surely hyper-anxious, but
common sense also says these oligarchs being well-connected, they would have the
inside scoop on what’s coming way before the 99% even knew what hit us.

6.3 That said, now the inconvenient truth regarding disastrously poor State performance
and pathological corporate agendas can’t be hidden, more countries are admitting and
embracing the proposition that they need to abandon conventional ineffective
mechanisms, and explore how to reform the failed economic system in radical and
progressive ways.50 But again, the progress with these policy innovations (assuming
their desire for change is sincere, but we can’t be too naïve) is likely to be painfully
slow and unlikely to keep pace with the ‘hockey stick’ trajectory of worsening climate
crisis effects.

Social psychology

“The problem of climate change is defined predominately as a scientific issue[…]But,

while these scientific and technical components of the issue are critical, climate change
is equally a sociocultural issue.”
 - Andrew Hoffman, P. Devereaux Jennings51

7. Elements of the factors outlined above indicate a societal decline, the type of which has
been cyclical throughout human history and arguably marks an inevitable result of the
collective human condition.

7.1 However, even if these circumstances were sufficiently dealt with, there is still the
complexity of the individual and collective human psyche to overcome. Typically, the
egoic human mind resists accepting many hard truths, fears change, is debilitated by
confusion and/or grief,52 often acts selfishly53 (particularly when under chronic
stress54), and displays other characteristics that in many situations impede much needed
rapid transformation. Addressing this problem is not the domain of climate scientists,
hence growing calls for social scientists to “play a greater role in helping natural
scientists convince people of the reality of climate change and drive policy”55 and
influence the climate change dialogue:56

“when we believe in something, we filter information in a way that affirms our

already-held beliefs. "More information...doesn’t help skeptics discover the
best evidence,"[…] "Instead, it sends them searching for evidence that seems
to prove them right."”

7.2 The mainstream media of course (both the news and the entertainment industries) has a
huge influence on the public’s perceptions about climate crisis, and their motivation to
take action. However, the integrity of that sector has also been roundly criticised.
Aside from the phenomena of ‘fake news’ and mass distraction, a myriad of
fundamental reforms are necessary. But again, it is unlikely that such improvements
will be made in the short-term. Continuation of the same media behaviour may be
expected given that mainstream media control is now concentrated in a handful of
major corporations.57 These entities have their own ‘depraved’58 agendas (see above),
and a reputation for leveraging their power to control the narrative, manufacture
consent,59 or pacify or confuse the masses (depending on the situation). It is unlikely,
therefore, that the media industrial complex can be depended on to assist mobilising the
masses in the short-term to demand radical climate action from their elected officials,
business and industry or elsewhere.

Regards,

Catherine Murupaenga-Ikenn

1
Ref “IPCC: Climate scientists consider 'life changing' report” (1 October 2018) at
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45653099.
2
Ref “UN report: Greenhouse gasses at highest level in 5 million years” (23 November 2018) at
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/report-greenhouse-gasses-highest-level-5-million-years-
181123063503929.html.
3
E.g. one report states “The major outstanding question about the 1.5C target is: is it feasible? In the new
draft, the scientists write “there is no simple answer”. On current levels of pollution, the world is warming
roughly 0.2C each decade. If that continues, the 1.5C threshold will be crossed in the 2040s, the report says.”:
“Warming of 2C ‘substantially’ more harmful than 1.5C – draft UN report” (27 June 2018) at
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/27/warming-2c-substantially-harmful-1-5c-draft-un-report/.
4
Downloadable at
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26879/EGR2018_ESEN.pdf?sequence=10.
5
Ref “UN warns that world is falling behind Paris climate goals” (28 November 2018) at
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/warns-world-falling-paris-climate-goals-181127161514568.html.
6
See for example references to scientific tracking of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in “Goodbye World:
We’ve passed the carbon tipping point for good” (29 September 2016) at
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/z43wpx/goodbye-world-weve-passed-the-carbon-tipping-point-
for-good; and “Have We Passed the Climate Change Tipping Point?” (16 March 2017) at
https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2017/03/16/have-we-passed-the-climate-change-tipping-
point/#de97f7b7e123.
7
For a comprehensive overview of numerous tipping points breached, see article by Prof. Guy McPherson (2
August 2016), at https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/climate-change-summary-and-update/; also
“Earth's climate monsters could be unleashed as temperatures rise” (5 October 2018) at
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2018/oct/06/earths-climate-monsters-could-be-
unleashed-as-temperatures-rise.
8
Ref “Climate change impacts worse than expected, global report warns” (7 October 2018) at
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/10/ipcc-report-climate-change-impacts-forests-
emissions/.
9
For example see commentary by Paul H Beckwith (M.Sc., B.Eng., Physicist, Engineer, and part-time professor
at the University of Ottawa), “Abrupt Climate Change Will Rapidly Blow Past 1.5C and 2C” (10 October 2018)
at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyZs6LdQ1cQ.
10
Ref “Farmer’s public suicide in India opens debate over compassion and climate” (23 April 2015), at
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/farmers-public-suicide-in-india-opens-debate-over-
compassion-and-climate/2015/04/23/09f50ff6-9381-4a8c-bba6-
15cceede34fd_story.html?utm_term=.3398a72617cf; “The Torres Strait Islands Are Being Buried By Sea And
Nobody Seems To Care” (2 November 2017) at
https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/helen-szoke/the-torres-strait-islands-are-being-buried-by-sea-and-
nobody-seems-to-care_a_23263868/; “Solving the Suicide Crisis in the Arctic Circle” (23 March 2018) at
https://psmag.com/environment/solving-the-suicide-crisis-in-the-arctic-circle.
11
For example, see “Climate scientists reveal their fears for the future” (27 June 2017) at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIy0t5P0CUQ.
12
Quote by Adnan Amin, a development economist who was head of the Chief Executives Board for
Coordination (which represents all UN programs as well as associated organisations such as the World Bank
and the International Monetary Fund): “70 years and half a trillion dollars later: what has the UN achieved?” (7
September 2015) at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/07/what-has-the-un-achieved-united-
nations.
13
Ref “70 years and half a trillion dollars later: what has the UN achieved?” (7 September 2015) at
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/07/what-has-the-un-achieved-united-nations.
14
For one run-down of the agreement’s failures, see “The Paris COP21 failure demonstrates climate justice lies
beyond the “Red Line”” (21 December 2015) at http://www.movementrights.org/the-paris-cop21-failure-
demonstrates-climate-justice-lies-beyond-the-red-line/.
15
Ref “Project Drawdown: the most comprehensive plan ever proposed to reverse global warming” (2017) at
https://www.drawdown.org/.
16
Ref “100% Renewable Energy? Here's Why It's Not Happening Anytime Soon” (16 October 2016) at
https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2016/10/27/100-renewable-energy-its-not-happening-anytime-
soon/#7abe6b436302. See also “IPCC concludes Paris accord is not enough to limit global warming” (11
October 2018) at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/ipcc-climate-change-report-paris-climate-accord-
181009134051255.html.
17
Ref “Big Climate Danger Could Arrive as Soon as 2036” (27 March 2014) at
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/big-climate-danger-could-arrive-as-soon-as-2036/; “Global
warming set to pass 2C threshold in 2050: report” (29 September 2016) at https://phys.org/news/2016-09-
global-2c-threshold.html.
18
Ref “Corporate influence & the UN climate summit in Paris” (December 2015) at
https://corporateeurope.org/cop21; “Marrakech climate talks: giving the fossil fuel lobby a seat at the table”
(6 November 2016) at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/07/marrakech-climate-talks-
giving-the-fossil-fuel-lobby-a-seat-at-the-table; “Fossil fuel companies undermining Paris agreement
negotiations – report” (1 November 2017) at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/01/fossil-
fuel-companies-undermining-paris-agreement-negotiations-report; “Polish Coal Company Announced as First
Sponsor of UN Climate Talks in Katowice” (27 November 2018) at
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/11/27/polish-coal-company-announced-first-sponsor-un-climate-talks-
katowice.
19
Ref “IPCC's political fix on 1.5°C will undermine its credibility” (19 September 2018) at
http://www.climatecodered.org/2018/08/ipccs-political-fix-on-15c-will.html; “Politicians must set aside
blinkered ideologies in the climate endgame” (20 August 2018) at
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/20/politicians-must-set-aside-blinkered-ideologies-
in-the-climate-end-game; and “Michael Mann: We Are Even Closer To Climate Disaster Than IPCC Predicts” (9
October 2018) at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSg4KpijU9k&index=11&list=PLyaWCGWaXTWv5DB5khZM2jyvdkYrwnThz
.
20
Ref “The IPCC global warming report spares politicians the worst details” (8 October 2018) at
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/08/world-leaders-climate-change-ipcc-report.
21
For Prof. Skea’s bio, see https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/j.skea; for quote, see “IPCC: Climate scientists
consider 'life changing' report” (1 October 2018) at https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-
45653099.
22
Ref “100% Renewable Energy? Here's Why It's Not Happening Anytime Soon” (16 October 2016) at
https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2016/10/27/100-renewable-energy-its-not-happening-anytime-
soon/#7abe6b436302.
23
E.g. see “2018 Edelman Trust Barometer” annual global study, at
https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2018-
10/2018_Edelman_Trust_Barometer_Global_Report_FEB.pdf and media reports such as “Trust Is Collapsing in
America” (21 January 2018) at https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/01/trust-trump-
america-world/550964/. Past indicators of mistrust include OECD Reports - e.g. see World Economic Forum
commentary at “Why governments need to do more to regain citizens’ trust” (9 July 2015)
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/07/why-governments-need-to-do-more-to-regain-citizens-trust/,
and “A question of confidence: the countries with the most trusted governments” (15 November 2017) at
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/11/the-countries-with-the-most-and-least-trusted-governments/.
24
Ref “Politics in crisis and trust issues: How Kiwis feel about how the country is run” (30 August 2017) at
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/95883516/politics-in-crisis-and-trust-issues-how-kiwis-feel-about-
how-the-country-is-run.
25
Ref “Why Democracy Doesn’t Deliver” (26 April 2018) at https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/26/why-
democracy-doesnt-deliver/.
26
See Pew Research Center, “Beyond Distrust: How Americans View Their Government” (23 November 2015)
at
http://www.people-press.org/2015/11/23/1-trust-in-government-1958-2015/.
27
See “Study: US is an oligarchy, not a democracy” at https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-
27074746.
28
Ref “Study: Politicians listen to rich people, not you” (28 January 2015) at
https://www.vox.com/2014/4/18/5624310/martin-gilens-testing-theories-of-american-politics-explained. For
more commentary on US oligarchic trend, see for example “4 ways to stop the U.S. from becoming a Piketty-
style oligarchy” (1 May 2014) at https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/05/01/4-ways-to-
stop-the-u-s-from-becoming-a-piketty-style-oligarchy/?utm_term=.b529a569bfaa.
29
See abstract Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Volume 12, Issue 3 September 2014 , pp. 564-581 (for the
full article see https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-
american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B).
30
E.g. Victoria University, “New Zealanders’ distrust in government growing” (March 2016): item at
https://www.victoria.ac.nz/sog/about/news/news-archives/2016-news/new-zealanders-distrust-in-
government-growing, with full report at https://www.victoria.ac.nz/vbs/about/news/news-archives/2016-
news/new-zealanders-distrust-in-government-growing/IGPS-Who-Do-We-Trust-Survey-March2016.pdf.
31
E.g. see the demands of recently-established movement “Extinction Rebellion” at https://rebellion.earth/.
32
E.g. see “The political will to prevent climate change is lacking, even as the cost climbs” (8 October 2018) at
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-political-will-to-prevent-climate-change-is-lacking-even-as-the-
cost-climbs-20181008-p508g2.html.
33
Ref United Nations University, “Political Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation” (8 August 2011) at
https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/political-barriers-to-climate-change-adaptation.
34
See “Meat and dairy companies to surpass oil industry as world’s biggest polluters, report finds” (18 July
2018) at https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/meat-dairy-industry-greenhouse-gas-emissions-fossil-
fuels-oil-pollution-iatp-grain-a8451871.html.
35
E.g. in reference to just the fossil fuel sector, see “Exxon Knew about Climate Change almost 40 years ago”
(26 October 2015) at https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-
40-years-ago/ and “What Oil Companies Knew About Climate Change and When: A Timeline” (5 April 2018) at
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/04/05/climate-change-oil-companies-knew-shell-exxon/. For other
industries see for example “10 climate change villains” at
https://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/13/opinions/gallery/top-climate-change-contributors/index.html.
36
For example, see “Big business funds effort to discredit climate science, warns UN official” (20 September
2013) at https://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/sep/20/big-business-funding-climate-change-sceptics.
37
For example, companies’ externalized costs of production: see “New UN report finds almost no industry
profitable if environmental costs were included” (9 April 2015) at https://www.exposingtruth.com/new-un-
report-finds-almost-no-industry-profitable-if-environmental-costs-were-included/, with the full 2013 report
referenced in the article (“Natural capital at risk: the top 100 externalities of business”) at
https://www.trucost.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TEEB-Final-Report-web-SPv2.pdf.
38
For commentary on the NGO increase in number and influence, see for example “NGOs - do they help?” (1
December 2014) at https://newint.org/features/2014/12/01/ngos-keynote, “The power shift and the NGO
credibility crisis” at https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/ijnpl8&div=25&id=&page=;
“When NGOs beget NGOs: Practicing Responsible Proliferation” (29 April 2009) at
https://sites.tufts.edu/jha/archives/451.
39
Ref “Climate Change Is the ‘Mother of All Risks' to National Security” (6 November 2015) at
http://time.com/4101903/climate-change-national-security/.
40
E.g. ref “Military experts say climate change poses 'significant risk' to security” (14 September 2016) at
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/14/military-experts-climate-change-significant-
security-risk. See also World Economic Forum commentary on “profound social instability” and other risks at,
“Appendix A: Descriptions of Global Risks and Trends 2018” at http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-
2018/appendix-a-descriptions-of-global-risks-and-trends-2018/.
41
Ref “IPCC concludes Paris accord is not enough to limit global warming” (11 October 2018) at
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/ipcc-climate-change-report-paris-climate-accord-
181009134051255.html.
42
It’s widely acknowledged by informed commentators that the Earth is in a period of 6 th mass species
extinction, with rates of extinction now believed to be anywhere between 100 times to 1,000 times higher
than baseline: see respectively “Will Humans Survive the Sixth Great Extinction?” (23 June 2015) at
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/06/150623-sixth-extinction-kolbert-animals-conservation-science-
world/, and “Species Extinction Happening 1,000 Times Faster Because of Humans?” (30 May 2014) at
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/05/140529-conservation-science-animals-species-
endangered-extinction/.
43
Refer for example “How to spot if society is DOOMED: Researchers reveal the signs that show civilization is
set to collapse” (1 September 2016) at https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3767950/How-spot-
society-DOOMED-Researchers-reveal-signs-civilization-set-collapse.html; “Is western civilisation in terminal
decline?” (17 November 2015) at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/17/is-western-
civilisation-in-terminal-decline.
44
The world’s military spending could be diverted to fast-tracking climate responses to give the best prospects
for avoiding humanity’s species extinction, yet Governments choose not to E.g. “$1.7 Trillion Global Spending
on Military in 2017: Highest since End of Cold War” (22 May 2018) at http://www.ipsnews.net/2018/05/1-7-
trillion-global-spending-military-2017-highest-since-end-cold-war/.
45
E.g. the emissions trading scheme which has not only failed to curb greenhouse gas emissions, but seen an
acceleration of atmospheric CO2: ref “Have We Passed the Climate Change Tipping Point?” (16 March 2017) at
https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2017/03/16/have-we-passed-the-climate-change-tipping-
point/#de97f7b7e123.
46
Ref “Prof. Noam Chomsky on The America’s “Economic Suicide” (7 May 2012) at
http://www.4thmedia.org/2012/05/prof-noam-chomsky-on-americas-economic-suicide/. See also Alternet’s
Laura Flanders interview with Prof. Chomsky on “America’s Economic Suicide” (4 May 2012) at
https://chomsky.info/20120504/.
47
Ref “Why Corporations Are Psychotic” (16 March 2011) at https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/our-
humanity-naturally/201103/why-corporations-are-psychotic.
48
Ref Canadian documentary film written by University of British Columbia law professor Joel Bakan, “The
corporation - the pathological pursuit of profit and power” (2003) at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOafbpaVw90&t=93s.
49
Ref “Doomsday Prep for the Super-Rich” (30 June 2017) at
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/30/doomsday-prep-for-the-super-rich; “Survival of the
Richest” (6 July 2018) at https://medium.com/s/futurehuman/survival-of-the-richest-9ef6cddd0cc1;
“Foreigners face ban on buying homes in New Zealand after apocalypse bolthole fad hikes prices” (10 August
2018) at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/10/foreigners-face-ban-buying-homes-new-zealand-
apocalypse-bolthole/.
50
E.g. many countries, including New Zealand, are investigating the merits of shifting away from Gross
Domestic Product as a measure of progress towards some kind of “doughnut” economic model, wellbeing
index, or even sovereign money system: see respectively the New Zealand Treasury’s information on “Living
Standards” at https://treasury.govt.nz/information-and-services/nz-economy/living-standards; the Doughnut
economics model at https://www.kateraworth.com/doughnut/; and “Sovereign Money Referendum: A Swiss
Awakening to Fractional-Reserve Banking?” (12 June 2018) at https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-
manly/sovereign-money-referendum-swiss-awakening-fractional-reserve-banking/.
51
Andrew Hoffman, P. Devereaux Jennings, The Social and Psychological Foundations of Climate Change, The
Solutions Journal, Volume 3, Issue 4, July 2012, Pages 58-65, at
https://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/article/the-social-and-psychological-foundations-of-climate-change/.
52
See for example, “If you’re suffering from climate grief, you’re not alone” (15 October 2018) at
https://grist.org/article/climate-grief-un-ipcc-report/; “I Understand Why My Friends Don't Talk About Climate
Change” (20 June 2016) at https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/nick-fillmore/why-we-avoid-climate-change-
talks_b_10544546.html.
53
For example, “Voters generally favor policies that enhance their own well-being with little consideration for
that of future generations or for long-term outcomes”: ref “Why Democracy Doesn’t Deliver” (26 April 2018) at
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/26/why-democracy-doesnt-deliver/.
54
Leading socio-economic commentators predict that climate crisis will exert pressures which States, societies
and communities “cannot tolerate for long.”: ref the World Economic Forum, “How can we prevent climate
change leading to conflict?” (28 April 2015) at https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/04/how-can-we-
prevent-climate-change-leading-to-conflict/.
55
Ref “Climate Debate Needs More Social Science, New Book Argues” (2 October 2015) at
https://www.insidescience.org/news/climate-debate-needs-more-social-science-new-book-argues. See also
geophysicists’ call for the same, at around 1:35 mins into Prof. Stephan Lewandowsky’s video presentation
“The cognition of climate change denial” (March 2013) at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBOt7ecarc0&t=0s&list=PLyaWCGWaXTWv5DB5khZM2jyvdkYrwnThz&in
dex=121.
56
“Why Doesn’t Anyone Know How to Talk About Global Warming?” (1 May 2014) at
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/talking-about-climate-change-how-weve-failed-and-how-
we-can-fix-it-180951070/.
57
Ref “Chart: These 6 Companies Control Much of U.S. Media” (24 July 2018) at
http://fortune.com/longform/media-company-ownership-consolidation/.
58
Ref “The Depravity of Climate-Change Denial” (26 November 2018) at
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/26/opinion/climate-change-denial-republican.html.

59
Ref Edward Herman & Noam Chomsky, “A Propaganda Model” (Excerpted from Manufacturing Consent,
1988) at https://chomsky.info/consent01/.