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Max Financial Services (MFS; holding company for life insurance) posted a EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS
steady Q3FY18 performance. Growth was below trend (individual APE up Absolute Rating BUY
<17% YoY) given its tilt towards lower-ticket, higher-margin protection Rating Relative to Sector Outperform
business (5% in 9mFY18 vs. 4% during 9mFY17, which should improve Risk Rating Relative to Sector Low
profitability) and diversified portfolio (ULIPs proportion curtailed at 40%). Sector Relative to Market Overweight
MFS delivered across critical business metrics—persistency, healthy AUM
accretion, stable expense ratio and distribution diversification. Moreover,
MARKET DATA (R: MAXI.BO, B: MAXF IN)
the company stated plans were afoot to raise ~INR50bn to drive growth
CMP : INR 524
through acquisition opportunities – a potential game changer as it would
Target Price : INR 720
reduce concerns about continuity of its partnership with Axis Bank. Growth 52-week range (INR) : 684 / 500
acceleration with sustained improvement in underlying metrics is Share in issue (mn) : 268.4
envisaged to drive rerating. Maintain ‘BUY’. M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 141 / 2,732
Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 1,158.2
Growth momentum below trend
Growth momentum was below trend with new business premium growth of 15.5% YoY SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)
on 14% growth in first year premium (FYP) and ~18% rise in single premiums. As a result,
Current Q2FY18 Q1FY18
individual APE also grew 17% YoY. Further, renewal premium growth was soft (up 7%
Promoters * 30.3 30.3 30.4
YoY) leading to mere 10% YoY growth in gross written premium (GWP). Growth looks
MF's, FI's & BK’s 30.9 30.0 26.2
optically lower due to: a) tilt towards lower-ticket protection business; and b) limited tilt
FII's 24.6 26.1 29.6
towards higher-ticket ULIPs (proportion curtailed at 40%), which are driving industry
Others 14.2 13.6 13.8
growth. Qualitatively, growth is being led by the more profitable protection business, * Promoters pledged shares : NIL
which should lead to sustained improvement in profitability. (% of share in issue)
Year to March Q3FY18 Q3FY17 Growth % Q2FY18 Growth % FY17 FY18E FY19E
Prakhar Agarwal
Gross Written Premium 30,440 27,750 9.7 28,010 8.7 1,07,804 1,26,585 1,51,165 +91 22 6620 3076
Sh.holder profit (pre-tax) 1,540 2,050 (24.9) 1,300 18.5 7,682 5,917 7,046 prakhar.agarwal@edelweissfin.com
Chart 1: AUM at INR503bn (up 23% YoY) Chart 2: Solvency margin at 280%
600 400.0
510 370.0
340.0
(INR bn)
420
(%)
330 310.0
240 280.0
150 250.0
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Shareholder profit (pre tax) 1,540 2,050 (24.9) 1,300 18.5 3,900 5,981 7,193
Conservation ratio 84.7 95.9 (11.7) 90.9 (6.8) 88.7 84.6 84.8
AUM (INRbn) 503 409 22.9 478 5.3 503 517 614
• The company saw robust 12% growth in revenues on the back of contribution from E-
commerce and digital channels
o Margins have been higher than peers mainly because of product mix, target
segments and specialized channels
• Strategic priorities for the company include deep integration with existing partners and
accelerated investment in proprietary channels. The company is looking to grow sales
from existing agents and not merely the number of agents.
• There is a keen focus on online sales and marketing because of cost advantage. Are also
looking to launch online ULIP.
o The current bid is for IDBI-Federal now and the acquiring entity will be Max Life
• Management has raised its guidance to deliver 25:25:25 for FY21-22 – Sales, Margins
and ROEV
• Partnership with Axis Bank till 2021 and that both parties are well informed about the
bidding for potential acquisition. There has been no interaction with the bank on own
manufacturing and severing the relationship.
• There is a fund raising of INR20bn at the promoter level, primarily to restructure the
existing debt. The product has been structured by KKR.
• No position or intention to start a bank as of now. Tie ups with Yes and LVB doing good
for the company.
• Total no of branches of Axis bank serving Max products is 3400 with 98%
activity. Total employees across all banks serving the products is 3500.
• Max is looking to open offices in metro cities with highly skilled people to directly target
above 10lakh income category
• Post the announcement of merger there has been no organisational change in the Max
Life /Max Financial services which has to be reversed. Most of the leadership positions
are intact with no major changes at any level has happened, which lends
management confidence in the continuity of the business momentum.
• Product mix: Working in the direction to achieve Par- 35-40% , ULIPs – 40% , non-par –
20-25% (of which 10% will be of protection and balance interest rate guaranteed
products) over next few years.
• Management stated that they are on course to meet the business targets of FY20 (viz.
growth at 20%, Margins of 20% and RoEV of 20%)
• Channel strategy : The management highlighted strong push towards building own
channel (the investment in doing so will increase with merger activity called off) and
maintain traction of banking channel (other bancassurance partners are gaining
traction). The online channel has seen a good traction (pure protection driven by
online channel has seen a very good traction) and the management aims to further
ramp up this channel. Aim to take Own channel proportion to 40% ( 32-33%)
Other data-points
• E-Channel procurement has growth > 60% YoY
• AUM registered a growth of 20%.
• Solvency ratio at 285% (post dividend), the management is comfortable with the
solvency closer to 180-200.
• Interest rate guarantees on non-par savings at 4.4-4.6%
• Axis bank partnership is the stable relationship, this is fully secured till 2021.
Company Description
Max Life Insurance
Max Life Insurance is a joint venture (JV) between Max India and Mitsui Sumitomo. This
business saw change in JV partner in June 2012 wherein extant JV partner, Mitsui
Sumitomo, acquired 26% stake in the then Max Yew York Life Insurance - 16.63% from New
York Life International Holdings (which wanted to exit the JV to focus on their core markets
in US and Mexico) and 9.37% from Max India (which in turn acquired it from New York Life
Insurance).
Investment Theme
The company’s strengths lie in: (i) huge scalability potential; and (ii) globally experienced
strategic partners provide technical know-how. Factoring in benefits of improving outlook
on macros augurs well for reversing the drop in financial savings (driven by insurance). In
the insurance space, we expect Max Financial Services to be first on the block to capitalise
on the same given its: 1) superior quality of book leading to best-in-class conservation
ratios; and (2) strategic partnership with Axis Bank and Yes Bank. Merger being called off,
necessitates to look at standalone entity. Max Life (standalone) operating metrics (growth,
persistency, opex, AUM) reflected in core RoEV potential of 18-20% is amongst best-in-class
Key Risks
Introduction of direct tax code: If the corporate tax rate is hiked to the proposed 30% from
the current 12.5%, margins and profitability of the company will be impacted.
Banks acting as brokers: If banks are permitted to act as insurance brokers it may exert
some pressure. However, we do not expect Axis Bank to opt for the broking model following
strict regulations attached to it. On the other hand, if at a later stage it is made mandatory,
as suggested by the Finance Secretary as per press articles, then it could be negative for
Max Life.
Financial Statements
Policyholders' account Balance sheet
Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
First year premium 26,465 32,203 39,184 47,639 Liabilities
Renewal premium 71,140 80,608 93,351 1,09,241 Net worth 25,093 25,908 26,877 28,043
Single premium 10,199 13,774 18,630 23,924 Policyholders' funds: 2,45,296 3,01,480 3,74,006 4,60,061
NBP 36,664 45,977 57,814 71,563 -Provision for linked liabilities 1,52,204 1,60,048 1,74,478 1,94,405
APE 27,485 33,580 41,047 50,031 Funds for future appropriations 15,565 16,492 17,419 18,296
GWP 1,07,804 1,26,585 1,51,165 1,80,804 Total 4,47,350 5,06,973 5,92,783 7,00,806
NWP 1,06,802 1,25,279 1,49,527 1,78,721
Assets
Income from investments 42,107 31,863 36,975 43,498
Investments
Other Income 192 183 183 183
-Shareholders' 32,303 37,392 43,451 50,740
Total income 1,49,101 1,57,324 1,86,684 2,22,401
-Policyholders' 2,55,483 3,17,972 3,91,426 4,78,356
Commissions 9,364 9,373 11,121 13,246
-Linked assets 1,55,910 1,60,048 1,74,478 1,94,405
Operating expenses 15,912 16,715 19,376 22,925
Fixed assets 1,623 1,623 1,623 1,623
Provision for tax - FBT 799 874 925 1,013
Net current assets 699 734 771 809
Expenses (incl commissions) 26,080 26,972 31,433 37,194
Others 0 -12,129 -20,299 -26,460
Benefits paid (net) 37,768 58,753 62,817 72,952
Change in liabilities (net) 78,693 66,148 86,314 1,05,108 Debit bal. in shareholders a/c 0 0 0 0
Surplus 6,553 5,451 6,120 7,146 Total 4,47,350 5,06,973 5,92,783 7,00,806
Approporations
Transfer to Shareholders' a/c 5,551 4,213 4,959 6,051 Combined Ratios (%)
Bal. being FFA-shareholders' 15,486 16,492 17,419 18,296 Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
AUM (INR mn) 4,43,695 5,15,412 6,09,355 7,23,501
Key Ratios (%) RONW 29.1 20.0 23.0 26.5
Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Investment yield on sharefolder 8.5 8.2 8.5 8.5
APE growth 27.1 22.2 22.2 21.9 Benefit paid/Lagged AUM 10.5 13.2 12.2 12.0
-FYP growth 27.1 21.7 21.7 21.6
-Single growth 27.7 35.1 35.3 28.4 Valuation
GWP growth 17.0 17.4 19.4 19.6 Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
-Renewal growth 12.3 13.3 15.8 17.0 Price /EV (x) NA NA NA 1.8
Conservation 82.5 82.6 82.7 82.4 ROEV (%) 17.3 18.5 18.5 18.4
Commission ratio 8.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 Price /Book (x) NA NA 1.9 1.8
Opex ratio 14.8 13.2 12.8 12.7 Price / AUM (%) NA NA 0.4 0.3
ROA (%) 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1
Shareholders' account
ROE (%) 29.1 20.0 23.0 26.5
Year to March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Contri. of EV to Valuation (%) NA NA NA 35.7
Transfer frm policyholders a/c 5,551 4,213 4,959 6,051
Income from investments 3,089 2,857 3,436 4,003
Contrib. to policyholders fund 2 - - -
PBT 7,682 5,917 7,046 8,476
Provision for taxation 1,083 828 986 1,187
PAT 6,599 5,089 6,059 7,289
Additional Data
Directors Data
Analjit Singh Founder & Chairman Emeritus Naina Lal Kidwai Chairman
Mohit Talwar Managing Director Aman Mehta Independent Director
Dinesh Kumar Mittal Independent Director Rajesh Khanna Independent Director
Sanjay Nayar Director Ashwani Windlass Director
Holding - Top 10
Perc. Holding Perc. Holding
Moneyline Port Inv Ltd 6.73 Jacksom National Asset 6.12
Icici Prudential Asset Mgmt Co 5.13 Motilal Oswal Asset Management 4.16
Xenok Ltd 4.13 Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Mgmt 2.84
Hdfc Asset Management Co Ltd 2.30 Boom Investment Pvt Ltd 2.09
Reliance Capital Trustee Co Ltd 1.95 Reliance Capital Trustee 1.86
*as per last available data
Bulk Deals
Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
21 Feb 2017 Gs Mace Holdings Ltd Sell 15000000 561.13
21 Feb 2017 Sbi Magnum Balanced Buy 2300000 560.00
21 Feb 2017 Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund Buy 1383915 560.00
*in last one year
Insider Trades
Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded
12 Apr 2017 Mr. Ashwani Windlass Sell 50700.00
12 Apr 2017 Mrs. Sandhya Windlass Sell 74300.00
03 Apr 2017 Mohit Talwar Sell 140000.00
27 Mar 2017 RAHUL KHOSLA Sell 487312.00
ABSOLUTE RATING
Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months
Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe
within the sector
SECTOR RATING
Ratings Criteria
Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return
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ADITYA
Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN
DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES
LIMITED, ou=HEAD RESEARCH, cn=ADITYA
Aditya Narain NARAIN,
serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c279
90f20bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c30092792
Head of Research
NARAIN
c20, postalCode=400005,
2.5.4.20=6b7d777d3c8c77e0e2c454e91543
f9f4d9b8311cf0678cd975097fc645327865,
aditya.narain@edelweissfin.com st=Maharashtra
Date: 2018.02.14 20:37:53 +05'30'
Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period
* 1stocks under review
Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period
> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn
Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period
Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11
640
580
(INR)
520
460
400
Dec-17
Aug-17
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