Automotive Megatrends Magazine Q3 2017

AUTOMOTIVE MEGA
MEGATRENDS
MAGAZINE Q3
2017
THE
AUTONOMOUS
VEHICLES
ISSUE
Informing the decisions of automotive
industry stakeholders since 1992.
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...to the Q3 2017 issue of Automotive

Megatrends Magazine. Automotive Megatrends Magazine
Autonomous cars will be ready to roll ISSN: 2053 776X

out onto our roads in 2021, according to
a number of OEMs. Regulators, to date Publisher:
understandably cautious about Automotive Megatrends Ltd
greenlighting autonomous vehicles 1-3 Washington Buildings
Stanwell Road, Penarth
(AVs) on public roads, now appear CF64 2AD, UK
increasingly interested - and there’s also
slow but growing consumer acceptance
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commercial and safety benefits for the
trucking industry, with a number of Managing Director:
start-ups preparing to compete with Gareth Davies
the major OEMs.
Editor:
For AVs to succeed, however, there’s a Martin Kahl
need for all stakeholders to play their
part – not just the OEMs and suppliers, Contributors:
but smart cities, telcos, infrastructure Christoph Domke
providers, service providers… Dane Jaques
Freddie Holmes
Megan Lampinen
Michael Nash
Nikolaus S. Lang
Xavier Boucherat
Martin Kahl,
Production:
Editor Anmol Mothy
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Contents
17
BMW's search for sheer driverless

pleasure
10 14
23 26
Autonomous trucking provides lucrative
From manufacturers to mayors, AV success requires multiparty buy-in
opportunities
The start-ups seeking success in

Solve motion sickness to win at autonomous driving
autonomous trucking
6 Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Contents
30 38
35 38
What AV developers can learn from the
AVs and cyber security inseparable, says software developer
drone experience
42 45
From F1 to Route 1: 3D printing shows
AV propulsion: it’s all about ‘pinpoint levels of control’
mainstream potential
48 52
Automation, electrification, and regulation boost demand for AHSS Data to displace drivers in a decade
55 58
In the pursuit of driverless cars, don’t
Steel still relevant? More than ever, says supplier
forget the powertrain
Multi-modal HMI essential to build trust

Automation - it's so much clearer in HD
in AVs
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Cities push for AVs
From manufacturers to
mayors, AV success requires
multiparty buy-in
Thanks to maturing technology and a broad range of benefits,
cities are speeding up the adoption of autonomous vehicles, writes
the Boston Consulting Group’s Nikolaus S. Lang
T
he tide has turned. Big cities
around the world are dropping
their earlier wariness and
beginning to embrace autonomous
vehicles (AVs). Public opinion is
similarly coming around as people
grow frustrated with rising traffic and
parking shortages. With the technical
problems largely solved, cities and
their industrial partners are now
working at solving the remaining
regulatory and commercial challenges.
Those developments were in full view

in Boston, where it took the municipal
and state governments only four
months to approve a series of AV
trials. The World Economic Forum
(WEF) and The Boston Consulting
Group (BCG) have been collaborating
on the future of urban mobility for
several years now, and have worked
with Boston as the partner city for AV
deployment since summer of 2016.
The successes so far are further
evidence that the future of urban
mobility will be autonomous.
Consumers and cities

pushing for AVs
The past year has seen a flurry of
activity around autonomous vehicles
across the key stakeholders. Cities,
consumers and automotive OEMs and
In Asia, Singapore has advanced testing with Boston-based start-up
suppliers are all making strides. In
nuTonomy and others, with a view to commercial activities from
2018. The testing includes the 2016 launch of nuTonomy’s self-driving BCG interviews with 50 city
taxi pilot programme in the city’s ‘one-north’ district policymakers worldwide back in 2015,

Cities push for AVs
Exhibit 1: Findings from customer and city research
1 Many consumers are very open to trying and buying a self-driving car (58%)
2 The key reason for this is not having to park a self-driving car (44%)
3
Consumers
Consumers want a traditional OEM to produce the self-driving car (46%)
4 To consumers, a self-driving car is electric or hybrid (66%)
5 Many are willing to pay more than $5K extra for a self-driving car
Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 They are slightly more reluctant to share a self-driving taxi, but will do it at a high discount
“
Cities expect self-driving vehicles to become a reality in the next 10 years
8 Key impediments to them are public acceptance and technological readiness

Cities
9 SDVs primarily seen as last mile solution complementing public transport
10 Cities prefer having many private players offering self-driving taxis
88% already expected to have

commercial AV operations by 2025. In
a separate customer survey with 5,500
respondents from 30 large cities, 58%
The tide has turned. Big cities

said they were willing to try out an
autonomous car. They were most
interested in avoiding the tedious
around the world are dropping

search for a parking space. Only 37%
were willing to share a robo-taxi, but
their earlier wariness and beginning

the number jumped to 50% when the
ride included a discount due to the
to embrace autonomous vehicles

economies involved (see exhibit 1 for
detailed research findings).
Recent examples across the world

show the push towards AVs. In the
United States, the state of California
has given out licenses for AV testing to Activity has also increased among initiative generated a broad citywide
dozens of commercial operators, while nearly all the automotive OEMs. GM plan for investments to improve
Ann Arbor officials worked with the has made big-play investments in ride- mobility for underserved residents,
University of Michigan to set up a 23- sharing provider Lyft and automation reduce carbon emissions, and
acre mini-city for testing driverless start-up Cruise; Ford created a new promote economic development. Early
cars. In Europe, Gothenburg sees company, Smart Mobility; VW founded activity focused on expanding public
considerable activity with the Drive its own mobility brand Moia, while transportation and bicycling. But AV
Sweden initiative and Volvo’s Drive Me Daimler launched several services for technology soon came to the fore.
project. In Asia, Singapore has its ‘moovel’ ecosystem, to name a few.
advanced testing with nuTonomy and The WEF working group chose
others, and is planning for commercial Boston shows the way Boston for the trials because it is a
applications from 2018. Japanese good mix of car-centric American
officials are encouraging AV trials in a Boston’s process is especially revealing. and public-transit-centric European
variety of environments, from cities like Back in 2015, the city government city archetypes. Winter weather and
Tokyo and Nagoya to small rural towns launched “Go Boston 2030: Imagining the irregular city layout would help to
with growing elderly populations. Our Transportation Future.” The test the limits of the technology. The
Cities push for AVs
Exhibit 2: How AVs Benefit Individuals and Society
Improved road safety More efficient public transport spending

— Substantial reduction in crashes by 87% feasible1 — Reduction in public transit losses in low density areas
Safety Improved reliability &

Decrease in pollution experience
— Decrease of emissions by up to 66%2 — More predictable, shorter travel times
Reliability
Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Freed up space Productivity boost
Benefits
— Need for parking reduced by ~48%2 — Over 1.2B hrs of driving time savings1
“
Access
Increased traffic efficiency Better affordability of transport
— Traffic time can be shortened by 30%2 — ~50% less cost for ride sharing vs. owning1
Equitable access to mobility

— Mobility for elderly, families and mobility impaired
1. Based on fleet modeling for model city with 5M inhabitants over 10 year horizon; 2. Based on simulation of Boston downtown core over 24 hour period
collaboration with local and state

governments culminated in January
2017 when nuTonomy, a start-up
based on research at the nearby
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology (MIT), began testing
As more cities embrace autonomous

autonomous cars in the up-and-
coming Seaport district next to
transport, conventional automotive

downtown. From kick-off to having
AVs on the road took just four
companies will have to move away

months, a blueprint for other cities.
from pure manufacturing and

The cars in question were electric
Renault Zoes, equipped with a range
of sensors to feed the autonomous
toward mobility services

driving software. Among the
autonomous hardware were three
Velodyne LiDAR sensors, a Mobileye
camera, two additional cameras and
a host of radars. Safety drivers rode
along to oversee the trials and take
over if necessary. They initially search of food. The ever-watchful AVs take over control involved the
limited activity by speed, time of day, initially saw the looming seagulls as a unusual behaviour of other traffic
and weather conditions. As the cars hazard and took steps to avoid them, participants, such as drivers going in
demonstrated “agile learning” and until the researchers adjusted the the wrong direction on one-way
reached milestones around programming to ignore such small streets, construction vehicles
performance, they expanded the flying objects. Snow was a more blocking the street, or emergency
testing, including South Station predictable challenge, and the cars vehicles expecting everyone to pull
downtown, one of the two busiest are learning to handle those obstacles over.
commuter hubs. as well.
A key next step is having passengers
That agile learning included some With 300 miles driven, the team has in the vehicles and testing the AVs as
issues for which researchers had not had no unanticipated system a real transportation option.
prepared. The Seaport district has failures. The most common Recently, nuTonomy announced a
numerous seagulls swooping low in scenarios for the safety drivers to partnership with ride-sharing

“
Cities push for AVs
Municipal leaders worldwide are looking

for new solutions to meet rising urban
challenges, and AV-based mobility services
are an essential building block
provider Lyft in Boston to define the and for individual. Safety is another A new future for the
automotive industry
on-demand AV user experience. In major benefit, and models have shown
addition, Optimus Ride and Delphi up to 90% reduction in crashes from
were approved as the next two AVs. Boston lost 22 people to traffic
companies to test AVs in Boston. fatalities in 2016, so there is substantial As more cities embrace autonomous
margin for improvement over human transport, conventional automotive
The benefits of drivers. And more people would have companies will likely have to go beyond
autonomy are
access to mobility services, including technology investments and redesign
residents on the outskirts and elderly their role. They’ll move away from pure
outweighing or disabled citizens. manufacturing and toward mobility
concerns…
services. They will need not just new
As people recognise the benefits business models but also a new kind of
around safety, reliability and access, product development, as the
While the AVs were zipping around they overcome their lingering traditional seven-year product lifecycle
Boston’s downtown, a team from concerns about AVs (see exhibit 2 for of cars cannot keep up with the fast-
BCG’s advanced analytics group holistic view of AV benefits). moving technology.
Gamma was conducting a complex
traffic simulation. They were drawing …but some questions Their target market will also change, as
remain
on real traffic and road information sales shift from private individuals and
from throughout the city to suggest families and toward fleet operators,
how AVs would influence traffic flows including potentially the municipalities
in the city, especially along the key Municipal leaders worldwide are themselves. Unit car sales will fall, but
metrics of Go Boston 2030. looking for new solutions to meet revenue could rise if the companies
rising urban challenges, and AV-based can capture a significant share of the
The team modelled out two different mobility services are an essential value created by autonomy. That’s
scenarios: first was “Private Car building block. Technologically, the AVs especially likely if they can help design
Evolution,” which presumed that a are ready, but commercial structures an effective business model for
third of current personal car trips are still emerging, as entrepreneurs try mobility services.
would convert to self-driving private out business models for managing
cars or self-driving taxis. The second robo transportation fleets. How should The sooner they do this, the greater
was “Robo-Transport Revolution,” they coordinate the various transport their likelihood of leading the way for
where self-driving taxis and modes? Should there be an open autonomous car design. Otherwise,
minibuses replaced personal car interface, with one unifying customer- the non-car innovators in this space,
trips entirely as well as a portion of facing app for everything? Helsinki is from Google to Uber or Lyft, will
public transit ridership. testing that with its recently launched gain customer loyalty and turn
Whim app. the manufacturers into commodity
In both scenarios, Boston needed operators.
fewer vehicles and parking spaces, The legal hurdles are also significant,
CO2 emissions fell dramatically, and especially around liability for road Ongoing trials in Boston and around
people spent less time in travel. Not traffic incidents. Germany as a first the world are demonstrating the
surprisingly, the robo-transport mover on the global stage recently potential for autonomous cars to solve
scenario had a more pronounced passed a law to broadly legalise the pressing urban problems around
impact, as parking spaces were cut in operation of AVs as long as a driver is safety, reliability and access. Cities are
half and emissions fell by two-thirds. ready to override the system. While now actively working to lay the
the new law doesn’t yet include groundwork for future mobility
These findings are just a few of the complete autonomy (SAE Level 5), it services. It’s time for the broader
overall benefits from autonomous paves the way for Germany to take a automotive ecosystem to catch up and
vehicles both for the city as a whole, pioneering role in the adoption of AVs. support this emerging new industry.
Self-driving trucks
Autonomous trucking provides

lucrative opportunities
Christoph Domke, Director - Mobility 2030, Global Strategy Group at KPMG
looks at the role of autonomous drive technology in commercial trucking
T
he trucking sector is currently
undergoing significant changes.
We are likely to see more
developments and disruptions in the
industry over the next ten years than
in the last 50 years combined. New
business models like digital freight
brokerage, last mile delivery, fleet
management systems, concepts such
as vans and drones, combined with
real time data, sensorisation and 3D
printing will continue to transform the
sector.
One of the biggest disruptions in the

market is autonomous truck and
platooning technology. In terms of
forecast revenue, it is currently in
second place, lagging behind
connectivity and telematics. While
autonomous trucks have operated
successfully for years in off-highway
vehicle environments like corn fields
in Iowa and mines in Australia, we now
expect to also see the technology
applied to on-highway vehicles.
Trends driving the future of

autonomous trucks are manifold. The
growth of populations in urban areas
is stoking demand for hub-and spoke
logistics, autonomous driving
technologies, and greater connectivity.
Moreover, high fuel expenditures and
volatile fuel prices are forcing fleet
operators to optimise total cost of
ownership and operational efficiency.
Furthermore, the convergence of
connectivity networks and the
leveraging of Big Data are resulting in
the development of smart and
While fully autonomous trucks are not expected to be seen connected cities, road networks and
vehicles. In addition, as the average
truck driver age (e.g. 49 in the US)
on the roads before 2030, truck platooning will become a
more common long-haul trucking application from 2023

“
Self-driving trucks
Autonomous driving technologies and vehicles

will usher new value chain partners into the
trucking landscape, and could include IT
companies, cyber security companies, and
algorithm-based developers
continues to increase, driver shortage the truck, the driver, and the and still pay wages for drivers of
remains a significant issue for the environment, ensuring that all are vehicles in operation. This is certainly
trucking market. Thus, OEMs have informed and functioning. Driveline not an easy undertaking, with
shifted their focus towards automated will be relied upon to handle the autonomous vehicle technology units
mobility as a solution to help older operation of the truck in autonomous (Level 3) costing between US$30,000
drivers and attract young drivers. mode, enabling technology such as and US$50,000 (retail).
ACC that can control speed.
The benefits of autonomous drive Algorithms and the operating system In addition, mismanagement,
technology are clear. It can improve (OS) will be the brain centre of the interpretation and storage of vehicle-
safety and lead to better fuel truck when driven in autonomous generated data can lead to cyber
consumption, heighten driver comfort mode, requiring no driver input. security issues, including hacking
and reduce stress levels as well as and/or identity theft. With
enhance fleet productivity and Driveline is expected to experience autonomous driving technology
management. In the distant future, the largest decrease in cost over the development receiving widespread
fully autonomous trucks (Level 4) forecast period due to its current OEM focus, the future of the market is
could help operators save on drivers’ maturity in the market. Amid its high also highly dependent upon the
salaries, thus completely transforming level of complexity, the demand and support of government policies – such
cost structures. While fully cost for algorithms is projected to be as market incentives such as toll and
autonomous trucks are not expected the highest by 2025. Consolidation tax reductions – and early consumer
to be seen in the market before 2030, and partnership potential in the adoption.
truck platooning will become a more sensor, connectivity, driveline and
common long-haul trucking algorithm market is high as many The role of the driver in the
application from 2023 onwards. OEMs and Tier I suppliers venture into autonomous truck of the future has
new technological areas, especially for also been under discussion in recent
From a technology standpoint, algorithms that will require a new type months, particularly amid significant
problems such as adverse weather of expertise. driver shortages in countries such as
conditions or interactions with cars the US and Japan. There is some way
while exiting highways still pose With technology available today, the to go until we see fully autonomous
challenges. Reliability on wireless capability exists to produce a trucks on our roads, so truck
communication, software, maps, and functional Level 3 autonomous truck. platooning still requires drivers to be
sensors must also be clearly However, the industry is currently at a present in the cab, even though not
addressed. Furthermore, in the years stage where technology has outpaced actively driving. Given that they still
ahead, fleets will need to be able to regulations, societal acceptance and need paying, their responsibilities
use multi-brand platooning, rather business case considerations. The could involve office management
than only being able to link trucks of a development of legislative guidelines duties or looking for freight via mobile
single brand. in key regions like Europe and the US apps.
in areas such as safety and liability is
The convergence and integration crucial to the testing and potential of In a future with fully autonomous
of sensors, connectivity, driveline autonomous trucks. Society needs to long-haul truck-trailer combinations
technologies, and algorithm be convinced as scepticism of operating in certain highway
components will be necessary for a autonomous driving on public roads corridors, the question arises as to
fully functional, Level 3 (limited self- remains high, even though the whether trucks are needed at all. For
driving automation) autonomous technology is available and has instance, trailers could be fitted with
truck. Sensors improve spatial proven capable in on-road engines or motors. This would make it
awareness and obstacle detection up demonstrations. The business case possible to lengthen the trailers under
to 360°, enabling ADAS technology for autonomous driving is still under current legislative restrictions in
and active safety functions and development. OEMs and suppliers will Europe and increase the revenue
reducing risk of accident. Connectivity need to persuade fleet managers to potential for fleet managers and
will facilitate communication between invest significantly in this technology individual drivers.
Self-driving trucks
Level 3 autonomous trucks will • V2X communication for

become more widespread by the connectivity: V2X will allow for a
middle of the next decade, enabled by smart, connected, and safer world
the convergence of advanced through communication between
technologies including sensors, radar, vehicles, devices, roads, and cities.
connectivity systems, cameras, and Without improved communication
safety systems. Key technology between vehicles, traffic could
growth has impacted the following worsen.
areas in particular:
• Driver information displays:
• LiDAR: The market is showing signs Driver information displays that
of moving towards solid-state LiDAR, prioritise alerts and smart displays
“
but the first generation of of vital information will be a future
commercialised LiDAR is likely to be trend; the market will move towards
fixed-beam laser scanners with two digitisation of information about
or three suppliers dominating the the truck and driver health.
space.
The advent of autonomous driving
• Sensor fusion: Stereo cameras and technologies and vehicles will continue
LiDAR are likely to emerge as strong to usher new value chain partners into
enabling technologies backed by the trucking landscape, and could
multiple layers of data stitching to include IT companies such as Google
create optimal mode transition. and Facebook, cyber security
The business case for autonomous driving is still

under development. OEMs and suppliers need to
persuade fleet managers to invest technology and
still pay wages for drivers of vehicles in operation
companies, and algorithm-based

• 48V power net: With a growing developers. Various leading non-
demand for power and the need to traditional players have already made
find a commercially viable power significant investments in the area in
network able to complement recent years or made announcements
autonomous driving, 48V to do so in the future. These include
architecture is likely to emerge as a Uber (via the acquisition of Otto),
go-to philosophy. Google’s Waymo and China’s Baidu.
• Deep learning through algorithms: Given that the number of autonomous

Complex driving scenarios posed for start-up companies working in the
highly automated driving would autonomous trucking sector is still very
require high-precision, map-based small compared to those in the car
data combined with a vehicle’s industry that offer such vehicle
sensory vision technology to ensure technology (over 100), the segment is
safety in all conditions. expected to see further growth and
competition over the coming years.
• HD mapping for algorithms and While shifting from pure hardware to
connectivity: More complex driving service providers, most OEMs will
scenarios thrown at high automation further develop in-house autonomous
would require a new layer of data solutions while also looking towards
validation and redundancy that can potential synergistic partnerships or
be provided by HD maps capable of acquisitions of algorithm developers
offering static data with high and Tier I and Tier II suppliers to assist
precision. in new technology expertise.

BMW on autonomous driving
BMW's search for sheer

driverless pleasure
No contradiction: sheer driving pleasure and autonomous driving are indeed
compatible, says BMW’s Dr Ian Robertson. By Martin Kahl
‘
Sheer driving pleasure’… ‘The
ultimate driving machine’… BMW is
a company bullish about the very
act of driving. At the heart of
everything BMW does, everything it
develops, produces and promotes, is
driving, and the driver. Yet BMW is
also at the forefront of driverless car
development.
BMW board member Dr Ian Robertson

speaks openly about his love for
driving – and for driving fast. He is also
a keen proponent of the hands-free
car. As the Member of the Board of
Management of BMW AG, Sales and
“
Brand BMW, Aftersales BMW Group, to
give him his full title, told Megatrends,
manual driving and automated driving
are highly compatible.
The OEM talks not of semi-

autonomous and fully-autonomous
driving, but of highly and fully
automated driving, and although the
company’s long-term planning includes
cars that require no driver, the focus is
on developing technology that enables
a driver in the driving seat to take time
off when the going gets tedious.
According to the five levels of

autonomy as defined by the Society of
Automotive Engineers (SAE), Level 3 is The word driving is very much in our
the first stage of hands off the wheel,
and eyes off the road. Even at Level 4, DNA. But congestion is more and more
fully automated driving, there needs to
be a driver in the driver's seat. “At of a challenge, so when you can't have
Level 5, the driver is not required,”
notes Robertson. “We are pushing that sheer driving pleasure, you are able
towards Level 4. We're in Level 3 at the
moment, and the length of time during to do something else. So, yes, I think
which you can take your hands off the
wheel and eyes off the road is the two fit very easily together
extending, but we're very conscious of
the limitations of the technology - Dr Ian Robertson, BMW Group
before we enable Level 4.”
Indeed, he believes Level 3 is

“probably not possible under all Automated driving levels as defined in
circumstances.” Some companies, he
says, are aiming for Level 4, bypassing
SAE International Standard J3016
Level 3. “Our view is that you need to
develop the technology through Level
3 to get to Level 4.”
Driver no driver
Level 5 technology, then, appears to sit
rather awkwardly with BMW's whole
ethos of driving pleasure. Robertson,
however, sees no contradiction. Quite
the opposite: “The two fit very easily
together. We are renowned for Sheer
Driving Pleasure, and the Ultimate
Driving Machine. The word driving is
AUTOMATED DRIVING SYSTEM
very much in our DNA. And it's very

MONITORS DRIVING ENVIRONMENT
much in the brand positioning that our

customers enjoy. But, of course, we live
in a world today where congestion is
HUMAN DRIVER
MONITORS DRIVING ENVIRONMENT
more and more of a challenge,

particularly in the urban environment,
but also on the highways. And there is
more than enough opportunity to
0 1 2 3 4
No Automation Driver Partial Conditional High Full
5
engage the technology so that when
Assistance Automation Automation Automation Automation
you can't have that sheer driving

pleasure, you are able to do something The first 25km, he says, involves varies between zero and 30kph, and
else. So, yes, I think the two fit very Autobahn driving with unrestricted then back to standstill. It’s here that the
easily together.” speed – some drivers frequently drive semi-autonomous technology works
at around 250kph (155 mph). “But the really well. I can take my eyes off the
Robertson cites the example of his own last 10km or so involves driving on the road, my hands off the steering wheel,
daily commute into Munich from 35 Mittlerer Ring, the Munich arterial, and and I can check my email. At that time,
kilometres (21 miles) south of the city. it's bumper to bumper traffic that I'm just effectively in a train of traffic.”
In 2017, BMW, Intel and Mobileye announced plans 'to bring solutions
for highly and fully automated driving into series production by 2021’

“
From the point of view of what you can do as a

passenger in an autonomous car, the flexibility
that many people were thinking about is not
possible because motion sickness will prevent it
The transition from Level 3 to Level 4 wheel and eyes off the road,” he says. control by, for example, putting their
will be two-fold, says Robertson. “The “We are restricting that technology hands on the steering wheel. “It can be
first is the technological development, because we know that if you go beyond as little as a touch,” notes Robertson,
the second is the legislative a minute, or a minute and a half, the “but it's definitely a conscious decision
framework that will enable this type of distraction is much greater and to acknowledge that you're still
technology in certain circumstances therefore, the ability to take control of responsible for the vehicle.”
but not all circumstances.” the vehicle, should you need to, is more
challenging.” The question is how and One man’s boring…
The most likely application of Level 4 when self-driving technology can and
technology is where traffic is cannot be activated. In 2014, BMW demonstrated its
controlled, such as on Autobahns autonomous drive technology at CES
and motorways, he notes. “You're “The last 10 kilometres of my journey in Las Vegas. There, the OEM
effectively segregated from that I mentioned takes, depending on emphasised the use of the
oncoming traffic by barriers, and you the traffic, between ten and 25 technology not for slow speed local
have lane discipline which makes it minutes. Because the Mittlerer Ring is city driving, where bumper to
easier to control. If you move into well controlled with segregated traffic, bumper and start-stop traffic is the
highly urban environments where it's quite easy for our technology right tedious, frustrating and increasingly
there are so many variables, now to enable me to take my hands common aspect of driving, but
the technology development has to off the wheel and my eyes off the instead for what it said were long
be much stronger.” Robertson road for that stretch of the journey. It stretches of boring highway driving.
expects the technology for both of can be done, and we know how to do The driving pleasure that a driver
these applications to be developed it. But we also know that if I do that, might get out of their vehicle
in parallel. and something happens, then the discussed then would come from
ability to come quickly back into the winding country lanes, mountain
The handover time is a crucial area of driving position is not as easy.” For roads and picturesque landscape.
debate. “The conscious time that this reason, BMW, like several other Clearly, what some people enjoy,
drivers are alert to the road condition is vehicle manufacturers pursuing others do not – a conundrum for
dependent on the amount of time they autonomous drive technology, those developing autonomous drive
are allowed to take their hands off the prompts the driver to take back technology. We put this to Robertson.
“
One person's excitement is another person's

tedious drive. I think the technology will suit
different people in different circumstances
“I see different applications. I like to environment where it is bumper to A cornerstone of BMW’s autonomous
drive at 250 kilometres an hour on a bumper, there isn't much for you to drive programme, says Robertson,
highway. But the thrill - and this is one enjoy. Of course you can enjoy the was the acquisition of HERE from
of the thrills of living in Germany - is other features of your car, but you're Nokia, in which BMW Group invested
that at that speed you are completely not going to enjoy sheer driving along with Daimler and Audi. The
alert and you are very conscious of the excitement. So one person's excitement OEMs have since been joined by Intel
excitement that the speed brings. For is another person's tedious drive. I and a number of other companies.
some people, that's not what they do. think the technology applications will “We realised very early that the digital
They get on the highway and they suit different people in different map was the framework foundation
drive at 120 kph, and they don't circumstances.” for autonomous driving. This doesn’t
overtake. For them, that could be the mean we require a significant
moment to switch on the autonomous From HERE to there processing capability in the
drive technology.” background. We will try to do most of
Bringing autonomous cars to market this in-car, but we obviously need a big
Robertson points out that BMW’s is about much more than developing back-end, artificial intelligence tool.”
automatic cruise control system is the vehicle technology. A range of
activated after 210 kph, adding a level stakeholders are involved, from Robertson points to BMW’s
of security with automatic braking. “On infrastructure to telecommunications, partnerships with Mobileye, an Israeli
the other hand, in the downtown and many are non-automotive players. start-up which was not originally an
automotive supplier, and Intel. “Intel
was not known in automotive either,
and it has become a much more
embracing supplier in this regard.
Mobileye then was acquired by Intel,
which tells you that the partnership
selection was a good one.”
In December 2016, Tencent bought

into HERE, followed a month later by
Intel. Delphi is working closely with
HERE, and at the time of writing,
Continental and Ford are both
thought to be preparing similar
announcements about joining HERE.
“And although I won’t name names,
there are many others now saying
they want to be part of this
partnership, because they can see
that this technology, and the way
we're structuring it, is likely to be one
of the industry standards, if not the
industry standard.” Robertson
emphasises that the partnership
which is developing will not be
unique to BMW - but this is its
strength, he says: “We fundamentally
believe that the standardisation of
this technology will be one of the
things that the regulators want.
Because the regulators, of course,
HD mapping is crucial to BMW's autonomous drive programme. In 2015, BMW
want to see vast amounts of testing
Group, Audi and Daimler acquired HERE from Nokia. Intel and other have since
before they allow or enable.”
bought into what Dr Ian Robertson believes could become the industry standard

“
Level 3 is probably
not possible under
all circumstances.
Our view is that you
need to develop
the technology
through Level 3 to
get to Level 4
Testing times more open than others to In-flight

entertainment
autonomous vehicles being tested on
It is widely recognised that testing and their public roads. Is Robertson
validation are essential for the satisfied with the support the
successful implementation of industry is receiving from With no-one driving, the question
autonomous drive technology. municipalities and local or national arises as to how people might occupy
Varying cumulative mile or kilometre governments on this technology? themselves in their autonomous cars.
distances are cited by different OEMs The notion that people might sit in
and technology companies as the “We're at a very early stage of the autonomous cars and work, or read,
minimum required for validating regulatory framework. Many or watch movies projected onto the
autonomous drive technology. At governments, such as the UK, car’s windows is countered by the
BMW, around 250 million kilometres Germany, the US and China, are fact that a small but significant
of testing and analysis is seen as the encouraging the pilot application of number of people suffer some
required distance to prove and this type of technology with the very degree of motion sickness.
improve the technology. “The mistake clear statement that there has to be a
some companies have made is to driver in control when needed. The The success of the fully autonomous
enable that technology straight away. piloting of the technology is enabled car with a fully customisable interior
And then, of course, things can go in several countries now. So, that's will depend on understanding and
wrong. We will enable the technology useful. And as I said, the ability to overcoming the causes of motion
as its robustness develops in the next reach Level 4 and Level 5, where the sickness, an area of research that, due
three or four years.” driver can do other things, or even get to the lack of conclusive findings, is in
in the back, is something that no its relative infancy. How can vehicle
In 2017, BMW announced testing of regulator has fully accommodated. manufacturers accommodate motion
adapted 7 Series vehicles in Silicon sickness and other passenger
Valley, in partnership with Intel and “But they're enabling the pilot because reactions into the type of use that
Mobileye as part of a plan ‘to bring the pilot has, in essence, limited risk. might be envisaged for a fully
solutions for highly and fully In such a situation, an engineer would automated vehicle when the driver is
automated driving into series be seated behind the wheel working not driving and people are sitting in
production by 2021’. Regulators on developing the technology but also the back, maybe watching films on
naturally want testing to prove the on hand to be a driver should the their windows instead of looking
technology, but some authorities are need arise.” through those windows?
Robertson has spoken publicly about thing that is probably now very clear is “From the point of view of what you
the strange sensations he that if you try to view images when the can do as a passenger in an
experienced when participating in side panorama is moving past you, it autonomous car, the idea of moving
BMW autonomous vehicle research. doesn't work too well.” Trains and the seats so they face each other right
“We have a very extensive programme planes offer something interesting to to left isn't going to happen. Moving
and a very realistic simulator, which look at outside, including sight of the the seats so you can look at a screen
we've been running now for about horizon; occupants also generally do that is on the side window probably
three years. I sat in it for what was due not sit facing the window, they only isn't going to happen either. The
to be a two to three hour session, but face forwards or backwards, and travel direction of travel will therefore be the
after 15 minutes I was feeling so ill I with the direction or face in the direction in which you can do other
had to pull the plug on it, literally.” opposite direction of travel. things, such as watch a movie or read
Furthermore, trains and planes rarely a book, or use some other device. But
There are many ambitious suggestions brake suddenly, and their long history the flexibility that many people were
as to how people might view images as established means of transportation thinking about is not possible because
and movies or surf the web in their includes deep familiarity with their motion sickness will prevent it.”
autonomous cars, he notes, “but one respective travelling sensations.
Are we there yet?
(No.)
It’s often said that autonomous drive
2021 – the year of autonomous driving? technology is ready, with the mass
rollout of autonomous cars being
held back merely by the regulators.
Robertson, however, disagrees. Asked
2021 is an important year for the automotive industry. It's the year
that’s being targeted by numerous OEMs for the commercial launch whether the technology currently
of autonomous drive technology. available is sufficient to bring
autonomous vehicles successfully to
market, his reply is short and sweet:
❍ Audi claims the new A8, unveiled in July 2017, is ‘the first “No, it's not.”
production automobile in the world to have been developed for
This explains why BMW has said it will
take at least another four years to
highly automated driving’. In 2020-2021, Audi plans to
introduce a Level 4 Highway Pilot feature enabling hands-free develop the earliest deployable
driving at highway speeds where permitted; the vehicle will be technology. “And for Level 5, even
longer.” Is Level 5 really a viable
proposition in the foreseeable future?
capable of lane changes and overtaking
“It's basically the amount of data and
❍ BMW Group, Intel, and Mobileye are ‘collaborating to bring the artificial intelligence to interpret it,
and the systems to manage it
securely, that require development,”
solutions for highly and fully automated driving into series
production by 2021’. In May 2017, Delphi joined the explains Robertson. “And we know
collaboration from the vision systems of 18 months
ago to the vision systems of today,
that we're making massive progress,
❍ Daimler is working with Bosch to develop fully automated and but we're still not there. It's still not
driverless driving, targeting highly automated (SAE Level 4) and enough. Compared to flying a plane
across the Atlantic, which has very
few variables, driving a car, in most
fully automated (SAE Level 5) driving ‘by the beginning of the next
decade’ circumstances, has thousands and
thousands of variables.”
Underlining the complexity of

❍ Ford plans to produce a high volume, fully-autonomous vehicle
for ride-sharing purposes in 2021 developing this technology,
Robertson ends on a note of caution
and reality: “At the end of the day,
accidents happen because of human
❍ Kia plans a staged launch of autonomous drive technology to
2030; by 2020, it will commercialise partially-autonomous drive error. We will see many fewer
technology; within a decade Kia expects to have fully-autonomous accidents because human error will
be avoided. What we don't have yet
is the technology to simulate the
car technology ready for market
capability of the human to make a
❍ Renault-Nissan Alliance has committed to launching more decision that, in many instances,
avoids an accident. And of course,
that same decision-making in some
than ten vehicles with autonomous capabilities by 2020
instances unfortunately results in
an accident.”

AVs and motion sickness
Solve motion sickness to win

at autonomous driving
Companies developing autonomous vehicle tech will ignore motion sickness
at their peril. By Megan Lampinen
A
utonomous cars are coming, at their phone in a car experience "a
bringing with them a new high degree" of motion sickness. With
definition of the daily commute. even more such activity expected to
As the responsibility of driving passes take place in self-driving vehicles – to
to artificial intelligence (AI) systems, which should be added the seemingly
everybody becomes a passenger with myriad possibilities being conjured up
time on their hands. The question by interiors and electronics suppliers –
then will be about how to spend Cilimingras was keen to offer up a
that time – sleeping, catching up on large dose of reality: "These are things
work, watching a film or reading. that need to be taken care of."
Proponents suggest the possibilities
are limitless – but are they really? Most passengers who have tried to
read in the back of a car for any length
The elephant in the of time find out the entertainment
room
value comes at the cost of motion
sickness. That won't go away just
because the car can drive itself. "It's
"When vehicles can start catering probably the elephant in the room of
“
more to our needs, we will see the whole scenario," warned Phil
commuting not as a grind but as part Morse, Technical Liaison, Commercial
of entertainment or work. It's going to Group at simulator provider Ansible
be part of our lives and not just this Motion. "If you have ever
kind of weird twilight zone in between, endeavoured to read a book or
which is what it is today," predicted engage in some visual task inside a car
Luis Cilimingras, Managing Director of as a passenger, then you know what
design and innovation specialist IDEO happens."
London. However, already there's a
problem – and it comes in the form of The problem was flagged by Dr Ian
motion sickness. Cilimingras estimates Robertson, Member of the Board of
that about one-third of people looking Management of BMW, Sales and
Your eyes, focused on a stationary object, tell you

that you are not moving. But your vestibular system,
or sense of balance, tells you that you are moving
- Janet Weisenberger, Ohio State University
“
The challenge is to make sure that the vehicle is

behaving in a predictive way. Hard braking or rapid
steering – we don’t often do this as humans. If a
vehicle is doing this, it can cause motion sickness
- Chris Rockwell, Lextant
Brand BMW, Aftersales BMW Group, "mismatch of sensory input" to the significant obstacle to some of the
at a recent future-proofing event brain. As she told Megatrends: "If your biggest benefits promised by
hosted by the UK's Society of Motor eyes are fixated on your phone, or a autonomy. Megatrends was told in
Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). book, or a map while driving, different confidence by one senior OEM
"When you start to do things rather sensory systems are sending different engineer, "If you are in the autonomous
than concentrate on the roads, other messages to the brain. Your eyes, car business but you're not looking at
things happen to you. It's not focused on a stationary object, tell motion sickness, you might as well give
very helpful to say to your children you that you are not moving. But your up."
when they are unwell, 'Read a book. vestibular system, or sense of
You'll feel better.' That doesn't balance, tells you that you are Nobody wants to give up such a
generally help." moving." promising field of development just
yet. Lextant has been tackling the
But it gets worse. Just sitting in a self- UMTRI flagged three main factors visual and vestibular conflicts
driving car increases the chance of behind motion sickness: conflict specifically. The Columbus, Ohio-based
motion sickness. Robertson found between vestibular and visual inputs, supplier describes itself as 'a human
this out firsthand during a session in inability to anticipate the direction of experience company' that uses design
an autonomous vehicle simulator. "It motion, and lack of control over the research and insight translation to
was to be a two-hour session at least direction of motion. A similar develop a deep understanding of
but after a quarter of an hour I had to explanation came from Adrian Simms, people and their experiences, resulting
get out. I wasn't feeling too well," he Business Manager (Laboratory Test in human-centred design. Chief
commented. Systems) at simulator company AB Executive Chris Rockwell told this
Dynamics. He told Megatrends: "A publication: "We are doing a ton of
The University of Michigan's driver has an expectation of what research with simulators in this area,
Transportation Research Institute things will feel like. From a visual point and usually it has to do with
(UMTRI) predicts that up to 22% of of view, you expect things to come at predictability. The challenge is to make
adults are likely to experience motion you in a certain way. If suddenly it sure that the vehicle is behaving in a
sickness in self-driving cars, and that's comes in to you in a completely alien predictive way. Hard braking or rapid
not counting those who decide to way, it doesn't work. That's one part of steering – we don’t often do this as
read a book, text messages or check motion sickness." humans. If a vehicle is doing this, it can
social media. For those engaging in cause motion sickness." He also
activities that increase the severity The other part involves an agreement suggested that there were potential
and frequency of motion sickness, between the senses – the vestibular steps to take to mitigate motion
37% will be affected. conflict flagged by Morse and UMTRI. sickness "through lighting or with the
As Simms elaborated: "The air in the cabin, for example."
The biological accelerations of velocity that apply to
explanation
the body are detected by your inner Visteon, too, is tackling the visual and
ear system, the vestibular system. vestibular conflicts. "In an
You have your eyes telling your body autonomous car, you don’t know
What specifically happens that makes you are doing something and you when it will decide to exit the road or
someone feel nauseous when also have your inner ear telling you change lanes. The technology we are
travelling in a moving vehicle? A quick what you're doing. The two of them building in the cockpit, like augmented
search of the Internet reveals the need to marry together very closely. reality, can prepare the occupants,"
multitude of conflicting views on the If there's any disagreement between explained Visteon's Upton Bowden,
causes of motion sickness. Morse puts those senses, that can cause motion New Technology Planning Director.
it down to "fundamental disruptions sickness." "Otherwise it's like a rollercoaster."
that are a result of visual and Yanfeng Automotive Interiors is also on
vestibular conflicts."
Janet Weisenberger, Senior Associate
Take action the case. "Motion sickness is a big issue
for autonomous vehicles, and as far as
Vice President for Research at Ohio There may be consensus on the causes, I know no OEM has solved it,"
State University (OSU) and Director of but the jury remains out on the commented David Muyres, Executive
the Driving, describes it as a solution. The problem poses a Director, Global Research & Advanced

Development at Yanfeng Automotive use a single front screen for the visual
Interiors. "We are doing considerable display, so that drivers get peripheral
research to find out what we can do to vision cues that tell them they are not
mitigate it." moving. This helps to minimise
Design change
simulator sickness to some degree."
For Yanfeng's Dominique Taffin, Senior

OSU's Weisenberger noted that some Manager, Industrial Design, the key is in
approaches look to the vehicle design, "the behaviour of the envelope - that is,
particularly the windows: "Suggestions the box in which you will be sitting. You
to the problem included designing cars want to make movement as smooth, as
with large amounts of window space, predictable and as linear as possible."
so that even if someone is engaging in He would not share any trade secrets,
another activity, he would still receive but emphasised that the supplier was
motion cues from his peripheral vision. working with many customers and
Other recommendations relate to the there was "very big interest out there".
direction that seats in the vehicle face,
“
Give it time
because facing forward is likely to
produce a better visual movement
match than facing backward."
Not everyone is affected, however, and
She suggests this approach makes for some of those that are, there's the
good sense, having experienced chance that they will eventually
something similar at the Ohio State overcome it. As Weisenberger
University Driving Simulation observed: "People differ in their
Laboratory where two simulator set- susceptibility to motion sickness, and
ups are in use. One set-up features a for many people, repeated exposure to
surround screen and a vehicle cab the environment allows them to adapt
You have your eyes telling your body you are

doing something and you also have your inner ear
telling you what you're doing. The two need to
marry together very closely. Any disagreement
between those senses can cause motion sickness
- Adrian Simms, AB Dynamics
mounted on a motion platform. "This and reduce the symptoms. A small

set-up is very immersive for the driver percentage of people find it much
and the movement cues help to harder to adapt and continue to
create a better match between the experience symptoms."
visual and vestibular signals to the
brain," she explained. Taffin echoed this sentiment, adding:
"Humans evolve and adapt to
The other set-up is a drive-on situations. Maybe this will be
arrangement, with which researchers something that disappears at some
can test mass-production vehicles by point." That said, he emphasised that
mounting their front wheels onto motion sickness remains "a serious
turntables and instrumenting the matter that has to be taken into
pedals. Notably, in this set-up, no consideration." After all, OEMs and
motion cue is available. "We have suppliers can ill afford to develop
found that the incidence of simulator products that exclude even a small
sickness is higher with this second percentage of their customer base –
set-up, and the best way to combat it particularly if the thing that excludes
is not to have a surround screen," those potential customers is an
explained Weisenberger. "Rather, we uncontrollable sensation of nausea.
Autonomous truck start-ups
The start-ups seeking success

in autonomous trucking
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares for the arrival of self-driving
trucks, numerous start-ups are looking to get involved – but will they be able
to keep pace? By Xavier Boucherat
W
hile most of the narrative a vehicle’s lifetime total cost of but it can also create income
about autonomous drive ownership (TCO), and is likely to prove generation possibilities for drivers and
technology is focused on a more economically attractive fleets through initiatives such as Uber
passenger cars, the likelihood is that it prospect for fleet operators than for for trucks.
is in trucking, rather than in passenger passenger car buyers.
cars, that self-drive technology will Making headlines
first be adopted. Autonomous driving technology is
currently much more applicable to the
Nonetheless, the technical challenges
Highways, where heavy trucks spend truck sector than to cars for a variety of
for truck manufacturers are
most their time, are far less complex reasons, says Sandeep Kar, Chief
considerable, and agile tech start-ups
environments than built-up urban Strategy Officer at Fleet Complete, a
are now scrambling to bring solutions
areas, and the technology required to global commercial vehicle IoT solutions
to OEMs. Several tech start-ups are
navigate them autonomously is, to provider. Autonomous driving can not
currently the subject of considerable
some extent, already available in cars only increase fleet and vehicle safety,
attention, with headlines being
such as Tesla’s Model S. What’s more, and reduce operating expenses such
grabbed by companies such as
autonomy has the potential to lower as fuel and maintenance, he notes,
Starsky Robotics, Peloton Technology,
Nikola Motor, TuSimple, Embark and
Uber Advanced Technologies Group
(which acquired Otto).
There are several unique issues that

will require resolution, explains Xiaodi
Hou, Chief Technical Officer at self-
driving tech company TuSimple.
“In a highway scenario, for example,

the focus is on long-range sensing,” he
says. “LiDAR is being widely used as a
primary sensor, but quite often the
maximum range it can achieve is 100
metres. This is not enough for highway
driving, particularly for trucks carrying
cargo, which require far greater
braking distances at any speed.” In
addition, truck trailers run passively
and do not steer themselves; this
presents particular challenges when
developing motion control systems
which could allow trucks to swerve
around obstacles and change lanes
when necessary.
Smaller companies may find

themselves better equipped to cope
The first version of Peloton’s platooning technology
with the lightning-quick pace of
should be on the road by the end of 2017

change in the tech industry, which
NIKOLA MOTOR
remains at odds with the conservative
nature of global, mass-volume OEMs.
Several have tried to adapt, and the
automotive industry’s presence in
Silicon Valley is more noticeable than
Chief Executive Trevor Milton
ever. But Hou believes the disconnect Established 2014
between Silicon Valley and the
traditional automotive industry Where Salt Lake City, UT, USA
players creates opportunities for
small, innovative tech start-ups. When Nikola aims to launch the Nikola One in 2020
The complete solution Recent funding Nikola is yet to reveal its backers, but raised
activity US$110m in a recent funding round, and is
“Autonomous is a completely new valued at over US$1bn, making it a ‘unicorn’
problem,” says Hou. “If you want to start-up
solve a problem, you first have to
identify it, and this requires What Nikola’s ground-up truck design will first come to
collaboration between different groups. market in the Nikola One. The hydrogen-
Our mapping team is in constant powered semi has a range of up to 1,200 miles
communication with our perception (1,931 km), and will have autonomous
and localisation teams, and unlike the
capabilities on the highway
traditional corporate way of doing
things, we can be flexible and efficient.
Of course, there’s nothing to stop OEMs
working the same way we do, but this challenge for start-ups will be to “but these will need to be fully
can’t really involve more than a hundred understand the high demands of the integrated, tested and validated by
people, meaning there’s little difference sector. That’s according to David OEMs before they’re offered on
between them and ourselves.” Alexander, Managing Director of existing vehicles. Reputations are hard
commercial vehicle consultancy Truck to build and easy to lose.”
In other words, autonomous is not a Technology. “There will be a need for
problem that can be solved by simply new systems and components to bring The ones who succeed will be those
throwing manpower at it. The automated driving to market,” he says, who can extend the lives of vehicles,
and help fleet owners get greater
value. TuSimple is offering what it
calls ‘the complete solution’,
EMBARK developing everything from HD maps
and localisation to motion planning,
Chief Executive Alex Rodrigues which enables the truck to swerve
around obstacles and change lanes
Established 2016 when necessary. At present, suggests
Hou, there is no single ‘black box’ that
Where San Francisco, CA, USA can enable autonomy. Instead, the
solution will be more akin to a
When Testing Level 2 autopilot system, with a permit computer in the 1950s – “you have a
for on-road testing in Nevada and closed-road crew of people each tending in their
trials in California own way to a big, room-sized
monster. The technology is just not
Recent funding N/A, but backed by Palo Alto, CA seed venture mature enough that it can solve all
activity fund Maven Ventures, which also invested in the logistics of autonomous driving
Chariot and Cruise Automation by itself.”
What Self-driving tech that takes over control of the Turnkey solutions
truck on highways, and hands back to the
driver for local road driving Where TuSimple is taking an holistic
approach, others are looking to make
ground in the self-driving truck sector
by appealing to specific needs of the
industry. Starsky Robotics is one, a
start-up based in the US where
trucking distances mean that truck
drivers can find themselves on the
road for lengthy periods, sometimes
weeks at a time. The company has
built a robot which, along with
enabling autonomous driving down
highways, allows drivers to remotely
perform the tight, precise driving

done in the first and last mile of a
journey, such as delivery yards and STARSKy ROBOTICS
depots. This could allow drivers to
spend more time with their families, Chief Executive Stefan Seltz-Axmacher
and help reduce fatalities on the road
– in the US in 2015, 745 drivers were
killed on the job. Established 2015
Another name is Peloton Technology, Where San Francisco, CA, USA

a start-up dedicated to enabling on-
highway platooning, in which When Launch targeted for end-2017
electronically connected self-driving
trucks will be able to safely follow each Recent funding March 2017 - US$3.75m seed funding, with
other at small distances to reduce air-
activity investors including Abstract Ventures, Hydrazine
drag, and thus increase fuel efficiency.
Peloton plans to roll out its initial Capital and Trucks Venture Capital
technology in late 2017, which will
handle acceleration and braking tasks,
What Along with developing a self-driving truck tech
leaving drivers to steer. As autonomy system, the company has built a robot which
increases, steering too could be made can be retrofitted to vehicles to handle the
autonomous. This has the potential to physical controls, allowing for remote control in
help solve worldwide truck-driver built-up urban environments. The goal: to allow
shortages – one driver in a lead vehicle drivers to spend less time away from home
could plausibly lead a platoon of
driverless trucks.
Some companies have even bigger

goals. Nikola Motor plans to begin
Wanted: start-ups, not will be reluctant to take on technology
upstarts
that doesn’t come with the OEM’s
delivering its own Class 8 zero- signature of approval.
emissions trucks at the end of the year,
which not only feature a hydrogen- Nikola Motor’s ambitions are clear, “There will definitely be opportunities
electric powertrain, but autonomous but underline one challenge that all for technology companies,” he
capabilities that will enable hands-free companies moving in on the segment suggests, “but probably only in
highway driving. This, says Chief will face - the trust which the world’s partnership with major truck OEMs to
Executive Trevor Milton, will free up largest fleets have built with industry implement specific systems. Unlike
drivers to plan routes, order food for giants like Daimler and Volvo. Large consumer vehicles, commercial
collection at a particular truck stop, or fleet-owners will be wary of vehicles are expected to give reliable
even watch movies via the vehicle’s 21- companies without an established service for a decade or more, covering
inch monitor. financial position, says Alexander, and hundreds of thousands of miles. Fleet
managers want to be sure they can
count on the OEM being around to
provide support and spare parts. There
PELOTON TECHNOLOGy will be a small number of purchases of
advanced vehicles from new OEMs by
large fleets for evaluation, but these
Chief Executive Josh Switkes tests will run for years before
significant orders are placed.”
Established 2011
Nikola’s Milton is all too aware of the
Where Mountain View, CA, USA setbacks a smaller outfit like his is
likely to face, and the company is
When The first version of the tech, which automates exploring alternative ways it could
potentially profit from its technology.
acceleration and braking, should be on the road
“Many other countries have reached
by end-2017, with steering tech to follow later out and asked how we do what we
do,” he previously told Automotive
Recent funding April 2017 - US$60m Series B funding, led by
World, “and so we’re beginning to
activity Omnitracs with other backers including Intel share this technology with other
Capital, Denso International America and BP groups in other countries.” Details on
Ventures distribution deals are unavailable, but
Milton is resigned to the fact that
What Peloton’s platooning technology allows trucks Nikola won’t be pushing thousands of
to safely follow each other at close distances. units any time soon: “There is no way
Cutting air-drag improves efficiency, which our company could go and serve a
could mean big savings for fleets global footprint in the next ten years.
It will take five years to market here in
the US. We do not want to make the

whole world wait 20 years for this

technology.”
uBER ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES GROuP
The future of start-ups in any sector (FORMERLy OTTO)
is, by definition, unclear, and whether
TuSimple, Starsky or Peloton will
master the market is an impossible Chief Executive n/a
call to make. Some industry giants
have made their intentions clear with Established 2016
acquisitions – in August 2016, Uber
acquired the company previously Where San Francisco, CA, USA
known as Otto for US$680m. The self-
driving truck company, headed up by When Commercial launch TBC. The tech was demo’d
former Google star Anthony
in 2016, when a beer delivery truck drove itself
Levandowski and since absorbed into
120 miles along a highway in Colorado
Uber’s Advanced Technologies
Group, developed its own technology
Recent funding Otto was acquired by Uber for US$680m in
which was introduced to the world in
October 2016. A high publicity demo activity August 2016
saw a truck hauling a trailer of
Budweiser beer drive itself through What Otto has developed retrofitted self-driving
Colorado. Since then, Waymo has technology for long haul trucks. However, its
revealed that it too is testing trucks, future remains uncertain following accusations
and a lawsuit filed by the company from Waymo that former Chief Executive
against Levandowski over stolen Anthony Levandowski stole trade secrets
trade secrets continues. before resigning from Waymo to establish Otto
in January 2016
Disruption
Ultimately, says Alexander, everyone
involved has plenty of work to do to managers must be convinced of the As self-driving technology gains
help realise any sort of autonomous benefits of investing in automated traction, and proliferation of this
vision for trucks. “The key challenge driving at Levels 1 and 2, before technology increases in commercial
will be dealing with a customer base moving higher. Then the drivers must vehicles, notes Fleet Complete’s Kar,
of professional drivers,” he be trained on how to get the best out advanced sensing, computing,
concludes, “some of whom are of that new technology. It will be analytics, and machine learning areas
literally offended by the idea of important to get all participants on will require ground-breaking and fast-
needing assistance. First, the fleet board for maximum results.” moving technology development and
evolution. “This will attract several early
stage companies and also established
TuSIMPLE
companies,” he says, adding, “The
potential for upside improvements in
efficiencies, effectiveness, safety,
security, TCO reduction, and driver
Chief Executive Mo Chen workload reduction in trucking is
attractive and substantial. This will lead
Established 2015 start-up and emerging company
activities in trucking to increase in the
Where HQ in Beijing, China and research lab in San next several years, ultimately benefiting
Diego, California. TuSimple plans to serve both trucking globally.”
markets
And over those next several years, as
When The company has a license to test self-driving the specialist tech start-ups advance
vehicles in California, as well as Hebei province their technology offerings and move
in China, with trials scheduled for late 2017 through their funding rounds, it’s
reasonable to expect a wave of M&A
Recent funding Yuan 50m in angel investment since December activity with truck OEMs and service
providers seeking to secure
activity 2016, with another round of funding currently
technology for future fleets. Just as
in progress small AI start-ups and mobility
service providers are proving to be of
What TuSimple hopes to offer a complete portfolio of
considerable interest to the big
autonomous truck solutions, and is developing suppliers and the light vehicle OEMs,
numerous components including mapping, so the self-driving truck technology
perception, localisation, motion planning and start-ups are likely to be ever more
control systems desirable for the major truck
manufacturers.
Autonomy & cyber security
AVs and cyber security

inseparable, says software
developer
“
Autonomous vehicles may present more risks than benefits if developed without
cyber security in mind. As Green Hills Software’s Dan Mender tells Freddie Holmes,
what use is there in an autonomous vehicle that can be hacked?
E
very year, groups of skilled
hackers pick apart the cyber
vulnerabilities of various
There is a core tenet tied to

products on the market, from
smartphones and connected cars to
autonomous vehicles where you

domestic appliances and online
streaming services. The idea is to find
weaknesses in design and flaunt them
can’t have safety without security

to the manufacturer, occasionally for
reward, before ultimately presenting
the findings to audiences at dedicated
conferences such as DEF CON and
Black Hat in Las Vegas. Incidentally,
the city is also home to CES, the
world’s largest annual consumer
electronics conference. strengthen as a result, with vehicle to be stopping people from being able
manufacturers scrambling to ensure to hack in and take over control of the
Automated vehicles remain a popular their vehicles are not subject to a vehicle,” he elaborates. “That is
target, with the potential to control malicious attack in future. something we have been discussing
how – and where – a vehicle moves of for the last five to seven years, and
much interest to hackers around the As Dan Mender, Vice President of now it is becoming a more
world. Tesla, given its capabilities both Business Development at Green Hills commonplace topic in many different
in terms of connectivity and Software, tells Megatrends, cyber circles.”
autonomous driving, has fallen prey to security is a core aspect of making an
trophy hunting over the last few years, autonomous vehicle viable. “There is a If not now, when?
first with the Model S, and more core tenet tied to autonomous
recently with the Model X. Other vehicles where you can’t have safety Megatrends spoke to Mender back in
OEMs such as Mitsubishi and Nissan – without security,” he explains. “This is April 2015 at a time when in-vehicle
the former now owned by the latter – really what an autonomous vehicle infotainment (IVI) systems were being
have also been targeted, with needs – you can’t have one without targeted by hackers. For OEMs, he said
steering, braking and private vehicle the other, you need to have both.” then, it was not a case of ‘if’ the
data being compromised. connected and autonomous car will get
In essence, Mender points to the fact hacked, but ‘when’ it will get hacked,
While all of these activities have been that while a vehicle’s software may be and how severe the consequences will
carried out as research scenarios, it extremely effective at detecting be. More than two years later, the
raises the question of whether the potentially dangerous scenarios on automotive cyber security landscape
industry is up to the challenge of the road and avoiding them, this has unfolded just as Mender expected
keeping hackers at bay. The means nothing if the vehicle can then it would: more hacks, and of increasing
relationship between cyber security be hacked and controlled remotely. complexity. “Just recently, there was
and automated driving continues to “One of the major challenges is going another Tesla hack where researchers

“
Autonomy & cyber security
One of the major challenges is going to be

stopping people from being able to hack in and
take over control of the vehicle. That is something
we have been discussing for the last five to seven
years, and now it is becoming a more
commonplace topic
“
were able to take over the brakes, open “We are going to start seeing that kind “I believe there is a false impression
doors, and do certain other things to of thing with the automotive industry,” about how far the technology for
the car,” he observes. suggests Mender. “Once there is a autonomous vehicles has progressed.
larger target base, you will start to see These vehicles have been tested in a
Mender refers to the second round of things that are very malicious, and very managed and contained way with
attacks presented by a Chinese these people will be looking for a people in the car as a fall-back,” he
research group in July 2017, which ransom – be it for financial gain, or even observes. “The current systems on the
exposed gaps in the on-board Wi-Fi political gain.” road today are not built for
and 3G connectivity systems of a
Model S. The team had previously
exploited cyber security vulnerabilities
in this car a year earlier, and managed
to gain remote access while the driver
If we don’t get the cyber security

searched for nearby charging stations.
The touchscreen was disabled, brakes
aspect right, and built in from the

controlled remotely and windscreen
wipers disabled whilst driving through
heavy rainfall.
“If we don’t get the cyber security beginning, there will be chaos when
it comes to autonomous vehicles
aspect right, and built in from the
beginning, there will be chaos when it
comes to autonomous vehicles,”
affirms Mender. As the autonomous
fleet grows in future, he suggests there
will be two main forms of cyber attacks
on vehicles: those that are dangerous,
and those that are inconvenient. While No room to cut corners production, they are proof of concept
both are motivated by monetary gain, vehicles, and many companies have
the former will have malicious intent In various languages, there is often a not thought about the necessary
to cause harm. single term for both safety and approach for security.”
security. For the autonomous car,
“Somebody may want to cause harm however, there are distinct differences Creating an autonomous vehicle that
by taking over a fleet of vehicles, and between the two terms and the works is completely different to
people’s lives will be at risk,” he says. industry needs to ensure that both developing a driverless car that
“They are doing it for financial gain, to needs are met. cannot be hacked, and in the pursuit
contact a company and ask for a of launching the first mass-produced
ransom, and we are already seeing There have been calls for the industry fully autonomous vehicle, Mender
more of that happen in other to slow the rollout of autonomous warns that some companies are
industries.” For example, the recent vehicles until cyber security standards likely to cut corners. “They will do so
‘WannaCry’ cyber attack that began in have caught up with advances in because they can, due to gaps in
June 2017 held various global autonomous driving capabilities. regulation,” he concludes. “In order
organisations – including national However, Mender suggests that this is to be first, people will work to ‘best
medical and transport services – to a likely to occur without regulatory practices’ and everyone will feel
reported US$300 (€254) ransom per intervention, and instead will occur better - until the system gets hacked,
targeted user. naturally. vehicles crash, and people die.”
AVs and drones
What AV developers can learn

from the drone experience
Dane Jaques, a partner at Steptoe & Johnson, LLP, and a member of Steptoe's
Energy and Transportation Groups, outlines ways in which autonomous vehicle
developers and regulators can learn from unmanned aircraft systems
• Both rely on similar

technologies
• Both must demonstrate their
safety in order to be accepted
• Both must prove an economic case
to be accepted
• Both technologies are highly
disruptive
T
• Both face challenges posed by a
patchwork of state and local
regulation
here are striking similarities • Both have challenges relating to
between the nascent sharing of data, privacy and cyber
autonomous vehicle industry and security
the development of unmanned aircraft
systems, or drones. Understanding the While all of these common attributes
development of drones can help guide make the drone experience relevant
regulators and the autonomous vehicle to autonomous vehicles, it is the
industry as they navigate the political, regulatory aspects that are the
legal and business landscape on the most urgent and potentially the
way to acceptance and implementation most important. The successful
of autonomous vehicles. implementation of autonomous
vehicles requires a regulatory
There are several attributes that environment that promotes innovation
autonomous vehicles share with and allows the development and
drones, including: implementation of key technologies.
The successes and failures of the drone
• Both require a modified regulatory regulatory experience in the US present
scheme before they can operate many lessons for the developers and
fully regulators of autonomous vehicles.

“
AVs and drones
The successful implementation of autonomous

vehicles requires a regulatory environment that
promotes innovation and allows the development
and implementation of key technologies
“
Regulatory commercial use of drones as the FAA of ‘waivable’ restrictions, such as
framework
and the industry gained more daylight-only operation, inclement
experience, and as the rapidly- weather limitations, altitude
advancing technology became more restrictions and visual line-of-sight
In the US FAA Modernization and mature and better accepted. These requirements. This resulted in the
Reform Act of 2012 (‘the Act’), ‘Section 333 Exemptions’ provided current system where regulations
Congress tasked the US Secretary of relief from regulations with which allow basic commercial drone
Transportation to work with drones could not reasonably comply, operations without any exemptions or
government and industry to develop a but placed rather significant waivers from the FAA, but also
comprehensive plan to safely restrictions on the operation of allow more advanced commercial
accelerate the integration of civil drones such as limiting operating operations where the operator applies
unmanned aircraft systems into the altitude, establishing maximum for one or more of the designated
national airspace system. The existing
FAA regulatory scheme did not allow
the operation of unmanned aircraft,
The primary criticisms of drone

since operation would violate several
regulations that were created with
regulation have been the slow pace

manned aircraft in mind. These
regulations applied to drones in ways
that ranged from critical to downright
of regulations and extremely

trivial, and include ‘seeing and
avoiding’ other aircraft, formal
conservative acceptance of new

certification of aircraft, mandating
aircraft registration numbers at least
technologies
6” (15.25cm) high and having the flight
manual onboard the aircraft, among
others.
The Act also called for the Secretary of

Transportation to determine whether vehicle weights, imposing airspace waivers and can demonstrate that it
certain drone operations could be restrictions and limiting operations to meets performance-based standards
safely conducted in the national daytime, not over people and within and can ensure operational safety.
airspace system before completion of direct line-of-sight of the operator. Based on its experience with these
the required plan and formal This also had the benefit of allowing waivers, the FAA is already considering
rulemaking. This addition to the Act (requiring) the applicants to propose updated regulations for Part 107. It is
was critical to the timely integration of their own operations and restrictions, also still possible to obtain regulatory
drones. Rather than following the and make their own unique case that exemptions for larger drones and
traditional, time consuming regulatory the proposed operations could be operations that would violate
process, the FAA was able to ‘pick the conducted safely. regulations not listed as ‘waivable’,
low hanging fruit’ and allow some again provided that the applicant can
commercial drone operations before Restrictions and establish an equivalent level of safety
exemptions
formal regulations were adopted or for the operations.
even proposed. This also allowed the
FAA to gain real-world experience with The primary criticisms of drone
drone operations before it tackled the After the FAA approved certain drone regulation have been the slow pace of
formal rulemaking process. operations through exemptions, it regulations and extremely conservative
developed a new set of regulations, acceptance of new technologies. Drone
At first, the FAA offered regulatory FAR Part 107, which essentially technology has far outpaced the FAA’s
exemptions pursuant to the Act to codified the terms of private regulatory framework and highly-useful
individual persons and companies exemptions the FAA had already been technologies remained sidelined for
and allowed for very limited granting. Part 107 also includes a list many years.
AVs and drones
“ In charting the path forward for autonomous

vehicles, governments should consider lessons
learned from unmanned aircraft systems
Lessons for AV A slight twist when it comes to communications systems) could create
regulation
autonomous vehicles is that the US inconsistent standards that would
federal government has exclusive make the manufacture and operation
control over the national airspace and of autonomous vehicles unnecessarily
Autonomous vehicle regulators and certification of aircraft, but limited difficult, stunt innovation and delay the
industry members can learn valuable control over autonomous vehicle implementation of autonomous
lessons from the drone experience. technology. In fact, if an autonomous vehicle technologies.
The first is that industry should be vehicle is compliant within the existing
free to determine the direction and Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards In charting the path forward for
explore the limits of autonomous (FMVSS) and thus maintains a autonomous vehicles, governments
vehicles, subject to appropriate conventional vehicle design, there is no should consider lessons learned from
safety oversight. The Act and federal legal barrier to manufacturing unmanned aircraft systems. The first is
subsequent FAA regulation of drones and selling an autonomous vehicle. ‘do no harm’. Many states in the US and
provides a model for autonomous The FMVSS would, however, prohibit governments in other countries already
vehicle legislation and regulation certain vehicle design characteristics allow autonomous vehicle testing on
because it encouraged innovation such as cars without driver operated public roadways. This system is working
and allowed manufacturers and controls and cars that lack mandated and should not be disturbed. Federal
operators to develop key technology warning systems, visibility and control legislation should, however, grant the
and propose their own methods of force limitations. US Department of Transportation
ensuring safe operation. Under a exclusive authority to regulate the
similar statutory and regulatory Unfortunately, this lack of a performance of autonomous vehicle
scheme, autonomous vehicle comprehensive federal standard could technology and expressly preempt
manufacturers and operators could allow a patchwork of harmful state and state and local laws in that area. In the
propose exemptions and limitations local regulations. While state regulation US, the National Highway Traffic Safety
consistent with available technology. of autonomous vehicle licensing, Administration (NHTSA) should be
The government’s role would be to insurance, traffic laws and terms for allowed to grant all exemptions
decide whether the industry testing autonomous vehicles would be necessary to allow deployment of
proposals ensure safety and, if so, appropriate and unlikely to harm the autonomous vehicle technologies and
grant the appropriate exemptions. development and deployment of collect data needed to establish formal
As the government gains experience autonomous vehicle technologies, regulations. This type of regulatory
and knowledge from the exemption state or local regulation of scheme would allow the rapid
process, it can then contemplate autonomous vehicle performance (e.g. development and implementation of
formal regulations based on that design, construction, mechanical beneficial autonomous vehicle
experience. systems, software systems and technologies.

Ride-handling for AVs
AV propulsion: it’s all about

‘pinpoint levels of control’
What are the potential challenges and opportunities for propulsion systems in
autonomous vehicles? Michael Nash investigates
W Heightened senses
hile human drivers in vehicles than in conventional vehicles.
conventional cars seek The reason is that the three main
responsiveness and driving A 2015 study by Michael Sivak and factors contributing to motion
pleasure, users of autonomous Brandon Schoettle of the University of sickness – conflict between vestibular
vehicles (AVs) expect to be able to sit Michigan Transportation Research (balance) and visual inputs, inability to
back, relax and access entertainment. Institute (UMTRI) listed some of the anticipate the direction of motion and
To enable this, however, the ride must activities that people could do while lack of control over the direction of
be smooth and the interior of an AV travelling in a fully self-driving vehicle. motion – are elevated in self-driving
must be comfortable and quiet. Much These included reading, texting, vehicles.”
of this can be influenced by the watching movies or television, playing
powertrain. games and working. Speaking to Megatrends, Gerard
DeVito, Vice President and Chief
As such, powertrain engineers are Any one of these activities may result Technology Officer at Eaton’s Vehicle
faced with a long list of challenges, in either a moderate or a severe level Group, suggested that this issue could
from mimicking a natural but smooth of motion sickness, argued Sivak in the be addressed with the development
driving style to dramatically reducing report: “Motion sickness is expected to of intelligent powertrain systems. “As
noise, vibration and harshness (NVH). be more of an issue in self-driving soon as somebody is on a computer
“
When an AV goes over a pothole it can be very

startling for the vehicle occupants. We’re working
on technology that can detect potholes and adjust
the shock absorption on the required side of the
vehicle so that the occupants don’t feel it at all
- Gerard DeVito, Eaton
and not driving, they will have a automated cars, and not in AVs that present in the majority of new vehicles
heightened sense of what the vehicle require a significant contribution to the in the near future, which could mean
is doing,” he said. “To combat this, the driving task from a human, like Level 2 mild hybrids using 48-volt (48v)
acceleration and deceleration will and Level 3 autonomous cars. That’s systems, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
have to be smoother and dampened.” the view of Mark Buchanan, Senior (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs)
Manager of Advanced Engineering at or fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).
Limiters can be installed to ensure the BorgWarner, who told Megatrends that
AV can only accelerate at a certain drivers of Level 2 and Level 3 AVs will Joel Maguire, BorgWarner’s Director of
pace, while sensors on the vehicle can likely “expect and require a more Electrification, agrees with this view.
be linked to the powertrain to make traditional performance and response “The future we see is that all vehicles
sure the AV keeps sufficient distance from the propulsion systems in these will have some form of electrification,”
between itself and the vehicle in front. vehicles.” he explained to Megatrends. And this,
If the car ahead brakes suddenly, the he added, includes AVs.
greater the distance, the smoother Enhanced levels of
control
the AV’s braking process. The marriage of electrification and self-
driving technology is one that DeVito
Linking the powertrain to various described as mutually beneficial. “We
sensors and using artificial intelligence Another issue that could be challenging see this trend happening in both the
(AI) could also enable AVs to produce a when considering propulsion systems passenger car and commercial vehicle
'natural' driving style, similar to that of in AVs is manoeuvrability. “Consider space,” he predicted. “Once these
a human driver. This, DeVito claimed, moving an autonomous 80,000lb truck vehicles include a reasonably-sized
could also reduce motion sickness. in close proximity, just by a few inches,” electric motor, it becomes much easier
DeVito said. “This is often the case to control the propulsion of the vehicle.
“You'd be surprised how hard it is to when loading or unloading heavy-duty This is because they are inherently less
emulate what a driver is doing and vehicles (HDVs), or even when complex than internal combustion
ensure the ride is smooth so the squeezing a passenger car into a tight engines (ICEs).”
vehicle occupants don't feel like the AV spot at a busy urban car lot. How do we
is doing something it shouldn’t,” he do this? There are some unique DeVito believes the level of control AVs
mused. “There will be considerable algorithms that Eaton holds as have when it comes to propulsion
interaction with camera systems, intellectual property giving us the ability must be greater than the level of
radar and LiDAR. We will have to use to manoeuvre with pinpoint levels of control that a human driver would
the information from these to provide control.” have over a conventional, non-
data that will be fed through very autonomous vehicle.
sophisticated algorithms, allowing the The development of electrified
system to act accordingly.” powertrain architectures can have an He provides an example to justify this,
impact on this level of control. Like describing a scenario whereby a
Motion sickness may only be a cause many experts, DeVito thinks that there person can see that he or she is about
for concern in Level 4 and Level 5 highly will be some form of electrification to drive over a pothole: “The driver

acknowledges the pothole and knows He also highlighted the fact that some amounts of electrical energy. With
exactly when the car will ride over it, first-time EV drivers are highly autonomous cars, the energy demands
and when to expect it. One company conscious of the ‘whine’ that comes increase significantly due to the huge
came to us for help with this, because from the electric motor. This, he volume of data that is being processed
they found that when an AV goes over added, will be a difficult challenge to and all the assistance systems needed
a pothole it can be very startling to the overcome, but one that is being to allow secure autonomous driving.”
vehicle occupants. We’re working on mitigated with sound dampening
technology that can detect potholes techniques. Kyle Landry, another analyst at Lux
and adjust the shock absorption on Research, thinks an intelligent link
the required side of the vehicle so that Saving or consuming between the powertrain and
energy
the occupants don’t feel it at all.” autonomous driving systems could
make the powertrain more efficient.
unusual silence Some AV demonstrations to date have
“It’s definitely possible through the
clever usage of power and fleet
highlighted numerous advantages of connectivity,” he said. “For example, the
This type of technology can also be using self-driving technology, one of US SuperTruck programme is
beneficial when considering NVH. which is a potential reduction in fuel investigating the use of 3D mapping to
When coupled with electrification, consumption. “We’ve already seen this better decide how to modulate the
“
DeVito thinks that this will allow AVs to with some semi-autonomous driving throttle up and down hills for optimum
operate in a smooth and quiet manner. features, like platooning,” DeVito efficiency. But only minor
observed. “Taking that human improvements can realistically be
For Christopher Robinson, Analyst at element of unpredictability out of the expected from these types of systems.”
Lux Research, the rollout of AVs will equation leads to fuel savings, and I
change the characteristics that OEMs think we can get much more out of With bumps, jerks, sudden acceleration
look for when designing new models. highly automated vehicles.” and sharp braking accounted for in the
“Although chassis, suspension and earliest stages of an autonomous
engine design varies between vehicle The autonomous car or truck could be vehicle’s development cycle, and the
segments and OEMs, most consider linked to street furniture, such as traffic development of an appropriate – and
driving feel as an important quality, lights, with vehicle-to-infrastructure clean – propulsion system seen as no
making sure the vehicle is responsive (V2I) technology. On-board computers larger challenge, some of the major
and fun to drive,” he told Megatrends. that link to the powertrain would then hurdles to delivering the perfect
Most OEMs consider driving feel as an important

quality, making sure the vehicle is responsive and
fun to drive. This is true even for hybrid vehicles,
but without someone behind the wheel, the design
focus can move towards comfort and smoothness
- Christopher Robinson, Lux Research
“This is true even for hybrid vehicles, as adjust the speed of the vehicle to make autonomous vehicle can quickly be
the fourth-generation Prius moved to sure that it does not need to stop at overcome. However, a “greater level of
a double wishbone rear suspension to any traffic lights on its intended route. control” will be required for an AV
improve handling. But without powertrain than for a manually-driven
someone behind the wheel, the design Buchanan, however, has reservations car, as AVs require precise and accurate
focus can move towards comfort and about AV efficiency; he believes the regulation of throttle and deceleration.
smoothness.” number of electrical systems used in an
autonomous vehicle will mean they are As the automotive industry moves into
While it greatly reduces NVH, less efficient than those that are not into an era in which manually-driven
electrification also causes issues as the autonomous. “Efficiency of AV cars share the roads with AVs,
noise of the electric motor fails to mask powertrains will be a major concern,” powertrain development will become
other noises in the vehicle that would he stated. “As the trend towards hybrid polarised. Human drivers will continue
otherwise be drowned out by the ICE. and EVs continues to pick up pace, to expect responsiveness and driving
DeVito described the autonomous EV efficiency regarding high battery- pleasure; those in the AVs they drive
as a “much quieter environment,” and powered driving range will be key for alongside, though, will expect to derive
thinks that occupants may be more those vehicles to be successful. Already their pleasure from comfort, blissfully
aware of moving parts such as today, cars do feature plenty of ignorant of the vehicle’s propulsion
windscreen wipers. technology that consumes large system.
3D printing
From F1 to Route 1: 3D printing

shows mainstream potential
3D printing has earned its place in the high-pressure world of motor racing.
Can that same technology and know-how be scaled up for the mainstream
auto industry? Michael Nash investigates
C
ar factories have changed about, but still very much in its
drastically since Henry Ford infancy, is additive manufacturing, or
decided to adopt the belt- 3D printing.
driven assembly line approach for
the Model T. From what was once The value of 3D printing to
something of a dirty, labour-intensive motorsport is undeniable; where it
and hectic scramble, modern sits in mainstream vehicle
assembly lines are now typically manufacturing will become clear in
pristinely clean, automated and the coming years. What is already
highly efficient. certain is that 3D printing will have a
role to play, and as with many other
A handful of advanced manufacturing technologies, motorsport is the
technologies is becoming increasingly perfect test-bed. Here, Megatrends
commonplace on the most modern looks at the potential trickle-down
production lines, and one much talked from race track to production line.

“
3D printing
Getting from the

production of
low-volume, niche
parts to medium- or
high-volume is
definitely a bridge
that is possible to
cross
- Jeff Schipper, Proto Labs
Ford is one of the few vehicle a bridge that is possible to cross,” Jeff houses the latest fused deposition
manufacturers speaking openly Schipper, Director of Special modelling (FDM) and PolyJet-based
about its work in 3D printing. Operations, Proto Labs, tells 3D printing solutions, which are used
“Automotive has really embraced Megatrends. “I don’t think it’s realistic to create a variety of race-ready parts
trying to have a more flexible for us to dream of making millions of – from hydraulic line brackets to rear-
manufacturing environment,” Ellen parts a year for vehicle wing flap extensions and carbon
Lee, the OEM’s Technical Leader of manufacturers, but a figure in the tens fibre brake cooling ducts. Shortly
Additive Manufacturing Research was of thousands is realistic.” after the expansion, McLaren Racing
quoted as saying in a recent One of the developments that could said that it would use the solutions
Automotive World special report on 3D help bridge this gap is the use of new to produce components for its 2017
printing. “For an industry that has 3D printing processes – several of MCL32 race car with the goal of
these cycles of upturns and which are already showing benefits accelerating design modifications
downturns, being able to very quickly over existing techniques. and reducing weight.
modify the manufacturing floor to
Promising techniques
change the product in a very quick Scott Crump, Founder of Stratasys,
and easy way lends itself well invented FDM Technology over 20
to some additive manufacturing years ago. It works by heating
processes.” “When considering automotive, I thermoplastics to a semi-liquid state
think most of our technology will before depositing layers in small
To date, however, while 3D printing has initially be adopted in low-volume, doses along the extrusion path.
been used to great success in vehicle high-value products,” says Andy
development and in motorsport, its Middleton, President of Stratasys PolyJet 3D printing works in a similar
application has remained limited as EMEA. “Our work with McLaren is a way to inkjet printing, but instead of
a manufacturing option in the great example – the volume is applying ink on paper, it layers UV-
mainstream automotive industry. It is relatively low but the value is high, cured droplets of liquid photopolymer
an increasingly common technique which makes it economically viable onto a build tray. These accumulate
used by OEMs for prototyping or in to use additive manufacturing. and harden to form the 3D printed
low-volume production runs, but a Today, the cost structure of using part straight out of the machine, with
variety of factors have prevented it additive manufacturing as opposed no post-curing needed.
from being used to build components to conventional techniques in high-
used in mass-market vehicles. These volume applications doesn't quite Various 3D printing solutions are
include the quality of the finished part stack up.” in use by a number of other
when using some existing 3D printing companies. Proto Labs, for example,
techniques, the cost of the processes In January 2017, McLaren Racing and uses stereolithography (SL), which
and the materials, and the time it takes Stratasys announced a new four-year involves focusing an ultraviolet laser
to print a single part. partnership that would see the to draw on the surface of liquid
expansion of the Formula 1 team’s thermoset resin, turning it solid. The
“However, getting from the production rapid manufacturing capacity at the process is repeated thousands of
of low-volume, niche parts to McLaren Technology Centre at times, layer upon layer, until the final
medium- or high-volume is definitely Woking in the UK. The facility now part is formed.
3D printing
“ We’ve got about 20 jobs that we are doing for

McLaren Automotive, using 3D printing to make parts
for their next-generation road cars. We can make
these in just a few hours, whereas before, the road car
team would have to wait days for injection moulding
and other such techniques
- Neil Oatley, McLaren Racing
“This is a very accurate process,” and represents a huge step forward in a scenario in which the McLaren
Schipper confirms. “However, it’s not making 3D printing production- Racing team demands a small change
really viable for production parts friendly in mid-volume applications,” to a certain part just days, or even
because the end result isn’t engineering he affirms. hours, before an event.
grade. So we use it for marketing trials.”
Taking low-volume
“This is by no means uncommon in
Other processes used by Proto Labs the F1 space,” he affirms. “We take
include selective laser sintering (SLS), motorsport feedback from the track and use it to
applications…
whereby a CO2 laser fuses layers of modify parts before they are fitted to
nylon powder into a solid, and direct the cars again. 3D printing allows us to
metal laser sintering (DMLS) which make these small but vitally important
involves a fibre laser system to draw Neil Oatley has over 25 years’ changes in very short spaces of time,
on atomised metal powder, welding it experience working with McLaren, giving us a type of flexibility that we
into a solid. Like SL, both of these and many more as an engineer in F1. never had before.”
processes involve building up the As the Design and Development
material layer upon layer. Director at McLaren Racing, he is While he is predominantly focused on
tasked with identifying new methods F1, Oatley adds that a select few of the
“SLF results in very high quality parts of manufacturing that enhance the components printed at the facility in
that are functional, but it’s expensive,” company’s race cars. Woking are now being used by
Schipper reveals. “DMLS is probably McLaren Automotive in its high-end
the most exciting and the most “At the moment, we’re using 3D performance vehicles: “We’ve got
production-friendly. It also opens up printing to create some smaller about 20 jobs that we are doing for
new design freedoms, although it’s components like the blanking panels the McLaren Automotive team at the
still quite expensive at the moment.” for cooling outlets,” Oatley explains to moment, using 3D printing to make
Megatrends. “Before we had 3D parts for their next-generation road
Another process that holds significant printing, these would take a couple of cars. And just like for the F1 team, we
potential, adds Schipper, is multi-jet days to make with the proper tooling can make these in just a few hours,
fusion. At Rapid + TCT – a 3D printing techniques. But now we can make whereas before, the road car team
exhibition held in April 2017 in Fort them in about three to four hours.” would have to wait days for injection
Worth, Texas – Proto Labs and HP moulding and other such techniques.”
announced that they were When it comes to F1, this time
collaborating on developing the multi- advantage is hugely beneficial As well as cost, time is an important
jet fusion technology. “It’s a much because the rate of component factor for 3D printing, says Middleton.
faster and more economical process, development is so quick. He describes Stratasys, he says, is busy examining

3D printing
new 3D printing techniques to reduce Fabian Krauss, Business Development we have to take on a consulting role to
both: “Cost and speed have a huge Manager at Electro Optical Systems help them find parts that can be
impact on the use of additive (EOS) also thinks that the on-going redesigned for the process.”
manufacturing for higher volume R&D in materials will be essential to
parts in automotive. It's not going to the success of 3D printing in mass- From F1 to Route 1 -
with complements
fly if we're printing 50 components an market vehicles. Looking ahead, he
hour, so we need new technologies, thinks this will open up a variety of
and these will come through the different benefits. “We’ll be able to
forming of partnerships.” replace parts traditionally made out Ford’s Lee welcomes the idea of closer
of metal with high-temperature collaboration between OEMs and
...to the mainstream plastics,” he says. “We’ll also be able providers of 3D printing technology.
to introduce new materials with While this could help to make 3D
In November 2016, Stratasys began metal-like properties, but with much printing more viable for use in
working with Siemens to integrate less weight.” EOS also works in F1, as mainstream production, she firmly
“
the tech company’s digital factory the official Technology Partner of believes that the technology will
solutions with Stratasys’ additive Williams F1, and it too sees its remain just one of many options in the
manufacturing solutions. “With a motorsport work benefiting its vehicle manufacturing process.
seven-axis robotic arm, which is mainstream customers. Speaking in
theoretically unlimited in size, we can November 2015 when EOS entered a “We won’t replace all of the
start moving multiple printing three-year technical partnership with conventional manufacturing that we
heads,” Middleton notes. “This Williams F1, Stuart Jackson, the have today,” the Automotive World 3D
potentially means we can produce supplier’s Regional Manager for the printing report quoted her as saying. “It
higher volumes of components in a UK, said the company’s Advanced will likely act as an add-on. There are
shorter space of time, but we still Engineering business enables some cases where it makes sense, and
have to address the cost issue.” Williams to pursue technical others where it does not. Just because
Today, the cost structure of using additive

manufacturing as opposed to conventional techniques
in high-volume applications doesn't quite stack up
- Andy Middleton, Stratasys
Aside from new 3D printing innovation “that transfers Formula you can print something, doesn’t mean
techniques, Middleton thinks the One technology solutions focusing on that you should.” Based on existing
development of materials could go a sustainability and energy efficiency to and anticipated technologies, OEMs
long way in making 3D printing more mainstream industries such as need smart decision-making to decide
viable for use in the production of automotive, motorsport, transport, upon which applications to focus.
mainstream vehicles. “They need to energy and other sectors.”
have the relevant properties for each Middleton shares a similar view. “We
application, which could be thermal However, the problem with using new can print everything really, but it doesn’t
resistance for use under the hood, or materials, says Phil DeSimone, Vice necessarily make commercial sense for
strength and durability for chassis President of Business Development everything. I think 3D printing will
parts,” he says. “Continued research and Co-Founder at Redwood City, remain a complementary technology
and development in materials is California-headquartered 3D printing alongside existing manufacturing
absolutely vital, and we’ve made specialist Carbon, is that they will processes for the next ten years or so.”
quantum strides in this area over the need to be tried and tested before
last seven years or so. In the future, I adoption. This, he thinks, requires McLaren Racing now has around five
think it will definitely facilitate further closer co-operation between 3D years of experience in using 3D printing
adoption of additive manufacturing in printing technology providers and to make parts for its race cars. Looking
automotive.” Indeed, at the time of vehicle manufacturers. ahead, Oatley expects this experience
the Stratasys-McLaren Racing to be leveraged by McLaren Automotive
announcement, Ilan Levin, Chief “The automation validation cycle is our as it starts to introduce 3D printed parts
Executive of Stratasys, said, “Stratasys biggest restriction,” says DeSimone. into its road cars. “We’ve already learnt
will also gain invaluable feedback and “OEMs have been using the same a lot from using 3D printing,” he says,
insights from working with ultra-high materials for the last 40 years. Once “but we’re still learning every single
performance automotive applications, they find a material they like, they stick day.” As the technology and materials
which we can then apply to our to it… We know the process better than evolve, he concludes, 3D printing is
mainstream automotive and anyone else, and if we want to see likely to play a greater role in all types
aerospace customers.” further adoption within automotive, of vehicle manufacturing.
AVs, EVs and AHSS
Automation, electrification,
and regulation boost demand
for AHSS
Without adequate protection, EV collisions could be disastrous. AHSS can
solve this, and meet the tougher demands of automation and emerging
market regulation. By Xavier Boucherat
T
he material mix used in
automotive manufacturing is
diversifying for several reasons,
including cost-effective lightweighting
and improved vehicle performance.
But as autonomous driving technology
and electrification continue to
transform the industry, so too will the
way vehicles are designed and
assembled change. Some of the
“
challenges around how best to build
tomorrow’s vehicles are clear; for
example, how best to safely house
large, heavy batteries?
Past incidents have already

highlighted the importance of this,
particularly as electric vehicles (EVs)
penetrate the market further. Despite
adding shielding to the vehicle’s
undercarriage in 2014, Tesla’s Model S
made headlines more than once in
2016 with reports of vehicles catching
fire. In one incident, a fatal crash in
Indianapolis, Indiana, set the lithium-
Fundamentally, EVs require the

ion battery on fire, leaving firefighters
to dodge exploding battery cells.
same crash performance as

Kenneth Olsson, Business Development
Specialist as SSAB, argues that the
cars with internal combustion

Swedish company’s brand of advanced
high strength steel (AHSS) is a
engines, but with essential

compelling solution. An alternative
chemical composition used in the
production process produces a steel
additional requirements to
called DOCOL which, whilst not suitable
for exposed panels, can be used for
protect the battery

shock-absorbing components in door
beams and chassis components, as
well as for lightweighting purposes
across other components such as seat
frames and bumpers.

“
AVs, EVs and AHSS
Steel is already the most cost-effective

material, and here we see two competing
technologies – cold-formed steel and
hot-stamping technology. And cold-formed
gives a clear cost advantage
Electrification opens up what he sense. The major benefit over Speculation continues, says Olsson: “It’s
believes could be a major new competing materials such as not yet clear how the future of
application, particularly as aluminium and carbon fibre is cost - autonomous cars will pan out. One
governments adjust to the reality of Olsson argues that AHSS can produce school of thought suggests that in the
more EVs on the road. “Fundamentally, crash-resistant components with the future, it will be impossible for cars to
EVs require the same crash same weight as aluminium at a lower crash, and as such there will be little
performance as cars with internal- cost. What’s more, all OEMs and Tier need for advanced high strength steels.”
combustion engines, but with essential 1s are completely familiar with
additional requirements to protect the forming and welding steel, making it Great news for safety, but not so great
battery,” Olsson says. Legislation on ideal for insertion into a complicated, for SSAB. Luckily, says Olsson, this is
the matter is already incoming in multi-material mix. Furthermore, no an unlikely outcome which in any case
North America, and the rest of the equipment overhaul is necessary. would take several decades to
world will almost certainly follow. This materialise. For all the hype around
will require electric vehicle Self-driving steel the self-driving revolution, the
manufacturers to ensure that cars evidence, he argues, suggests that any
involved in a crash that punctures the The materials industry will also be change will happen very slowly.
battery, whether from the front, rear paying close attention to the rise of
or side, leak as little harmful, autonomous driving, but how this “We should expect a certain number of
flammable battery fluids as possible. might affect the material mix is less autonomous cars by 2030,” he says,
certain. As Olsson points out, one of “but at that stage, the transition will be
Different OEMs will doubtlessly the main goals behind development far from complete. We also believe that
pursue different options, and of self-driving technology is to greatly a combination of legislation and
optimisation of the vehicle as a whole, reduce the number of collisions, customer demand will mean that crash
Olsson admits, will definitely require injuries and deaths on the road, and performance will remain high like it is
OEMs to adopt multi-material the potential is clear. But could this today, regardless of autonomous
strategies. But for force-absorbing change the way safety is approached functions. Ultimately, people want to
components, AHSS makes the most by OEMs? feel safe in the car they’re sitting in.”
AVs, EVs and AHSS
Customer expectation alone means front, side and rear impact testing.
a decreased risk of collisions is This, says Olsson, will be the
unlikely to dampen the necessity for beginning of the end for
quality crash performance. Of manufacturers appearing to build the
course, Olsson adds, the hope is that same vehicles in different markets,
deaths and injuries on the road can but working to different safety
be reduced, but moving forward, the standards.
company’s offering will remain as
important to customers as ever. “If you consider a conventional car
“
which is built in several locations
Indeed, says Olsson, the general around the world, the exteriors
demand for AHSS is only increasing match regardless of where it was
as OEMs seek to toughen vehicles made,” he says, “but up until recently,
without adding weight, and earn the the interiors are completely
highest safety and efficiency ratings different. In many cases, you find
they can. Car production is increasing mild steel being used, which is the
worldwide, and there is currently no cheapest material available.”
firm indication of autonomous cars
meaning less traffic on the roads, and New regulations will require higher-
thus less demand for materials, says strength steels, and Olsson believes
Olsson. SSAB can provide this whilst
We should expect a certain number of autonomous

cars by 2030, but at that stage, the transition will be
far from complete. We also believe that a
combination of legislation and customer demand
will mean that crash performance will remain high
like it is today, regardless of autonomous functions
Emerging markets respecting the extreme cost-
catch up
sensitivity of a market like India.
“Steel is already the most cost-
effective material, and here we see
But while material suppliers consider two competing technologies – cold-
how best to navigate the formed steel and hot-stamping
autonomous, electrified landscape, technology,” he explains. “And cold-
so too will they need to pay attention formed gives a clear cost advantage.”
to the needs of emerging markets
such as India, which in terms of Therefore, says Olsson, SSAB’s focus
safety and crash performance has will be on cold-forming, whereas
traditionally lagged behind European other competitors are leaning
and North American markets. In towards hot-stamping.
2013, road-related fatalities in India
came to 16.6 deaths per 100,000 This, he concludes, will give the
inhabitants, compared to Germany’s company a clear advantage moving
score of 4.3. forward. This, combined with a larger
role in designing vehicles, can help
This will change in India from October OEMs to produce safer cars in
2017 onwards, with the introduction markets like India. The earlier SSAB
of the Bharat New Vehicle Safety can become involved, he says, the
Assessment Program, the world’s bigger a benefit an OEM can reap,
tenth NCAP programme which will particularly in emerging markets
standardise components such as where education around the material
airbags, ABS and seat-belts, as well as may still be required.

Driven by data
Data to displace drivers in a

decade
Within a decade, a quarter of all cars will be capable of Level 4 or 5
autonomy, believes Mindtree. Megan Lampinen talked to the
company to learn more about an auto industry driven not by
drivers, but by data
I
n terms of technology, much can Predicting monetisation aspects in this
happen in a decade. Consider, for autonomous ecosystem is a guessing
example, the changes in consumer game at the moment, but Mindtree
electronics in the decade since the expects the traditional OEMs to
introduction of the iPhone. Across continue playing a starring role in the
the automotive industry, an set-up. After all, the industry may
unprecedented rate of change is transition to an autonomous car-
revolutionising mobility concepts, sharing scenario but someone still has
and automated driving in some form to provide the cars. "Asset ownership
or other is generally expected to will still lie with automotive OEMs," JP
pervade the global transport industry suggested. "There is a revenue stream
within the next ten years. While this that they will tap into."
should entail massive safety and
emissions improvements, the road That said, he also expects the
towards that goal is riddled with technology players, including some of
potholes. the Tier 1s, to grab a larger slice of the
pie moving forward. This is due to the
The vision rising software content in vehicles as
well as the system integration which
will be required by the many vehicle
"Our vision is that all cars will have
variants. "System integration is a huge
some level of automation, from Level
task, and some of the Tier 1s will be
1 to Level 5, by 2026. About 25-30% of
active in that," noted JP.
cars will have full autonomy at Level 4
Filling the gaps

and 5, meaning in some cases there is
no driver, no steering wheel." That’s
the view of Murali JP, Senior Director
and Automotive Business Leader at This transition to a fully
Mindtree. connected, highly autonomous
future will come in phases,
The company, headquartered in albeit quickly moving ones. The
Bangalore and New Jersey, operates industry is already off and
in five key connected vehicle areas – running, but there are some
infotainment, telematics, navigation, substantial holes that need
safety systems and diagnostics – and to be plugged before such
collaborates with global OEMs and a transition can be
suppliers on technology to support completed.
autonomous vehicles. Notably, its
client list also includes aftermarket "The transition is
system manufacturers, and it imminent," said JP.
believes these will play an important "With the shift
role in autonomous mobility. "In the towards connected
next ten years, every car will be cars, we see major
connected, including aftermarket challenges in
cars," said JP. "The entire ecosystem terms of the
will transform into the connected explosion of
and autonomous space." data that is going
“
Driven by data
Vehicle manufacturers and Tier 1s are putting

safety ratings and standards compliance first and
foremost. Many of those things continue to
evolve. That is the journey that our customers
are taking
to happen. Handling this data will be Connected Vehicle Segments, legal wider adoption, then you will see the
a major issue. Who will support the issues are a big grey area. "The most benefits of the autonomous car,"
data transfer between the car and the hotly debated topic at the moment is Gopal explained. This, he noted, is
back-end for the analytics and insights where responsibility lies when a self- particularly true for vehicle-to-
into customer behaviour? Then there driving car has an accident. That is a everything technology.
Evaluating the
is the information that needs to be legal point where governments will
“
pushed in as part of the content into need to come forward and work with
the car. Connectivity will be a big issue the industry," he told Megatrends. technology
from the use case perspective and Then there are the regulation aspects
even from the safety angle." and the official standards, many of When it comes to evaluating
which are yet to be finalised. "The autonomous technology, OEMs and
One significant concern stems from industry is going ahead with the suppliers will need to pursue a mix of
interruptions in connectivity. At present, implementation of autonomous simulation and real world testing. The
in many markets, connectivity is not technology, but there are open items number of vehicle manufacturers and
necessarily guaranteed everywhere a in many areas that still need to be technology companies granted road
car may travel. "That means some of standardised," cautioned Gopal. testing permits is steadily growing,
with new regions passing legislation to
support on-road pilots on an almost
regular basis. At the time of writing,
California alone has issued
autonomous vehicle testing permits to
Our vision is that all cars will have

36 companies. However, this approach
is much more expensive than
some level of automation, from Level

simulated evaluations. The key will be
in achieving the right balance.
1 to Level 5, by 2026. About 25-30%

"For verification, companies need to
simulate scenarios as much as
of cars will have full autonomy at

possible during the development and
integration phases," recommended
Level 4 and 5, meaning in some cases

Gopal. "It is very expensive to do
multiple rounds of road testing.” As
there is no driver, no steering wheel

much as possible, he said, they try to
complete those rounds of testing
through simulation. “That is currently
happening and it will continue to
happen." At a later stage, real world
testing is essential and, Gopal added,
unavoidable.
the things for safety could be done with The execution of the connected car
edge computing, but not all," he itself will play an important role in JP shared a similar view. "When we
warned. "There will be numerous safety realising a successful autonomous speak to industry players, we keep
cases that need to be addressed." Along future, and this includes pricing hearing that simulation is good for all
with these technology holes come cyber strategies for automated features. the base use cases. Simulation can
security and privacy concerns. "When these automated features realistically create the scenarios to
come to market, they will carry a price gauge the car's response for around
For Prasanna Gopal, Senior Director premium. As things move forward, 65% to 70% of the time. The
in Mindtree’s Solutions in Networking people will want to see lower costs for remaining 30% has to be done in a
& Communications, Semicon and wider adoption. Once you have this real world scenario."

“
Driven by data
With the shift towards connected cars, we see

major challenges in terms of the explosion of data
that is going to happen. Handling this data will be
a major issue. Who will support the data transfer
between the car and the back-end for the
analytics and insights into customer behaviour?
Notably, gathering all the necessary Giving it the green number of miles. But the questions
light
data for these vehicles cannot be keep coming, observed JP: "Is it
done by one party alone. JP predicts disengaging once every 50,000 miles? If
that consortia will be required, and so, what is the driving condition - is it in
already the announcements are After all the simulations and the road an urban environment or on the
“
flooding in. BMW is working on testing, at some point an autonomous highway? There could be a measure,
autonomous technology with a group vehicle will need to be deemed safe although there is no number attached
consisting of Intel, Mobileye and enough for public use. "It is very hard to it at this point in time."
Delphi. The UK Autodrive project, to quantify what constitutes ‘safe
which kicked off in late 2015, is enough’," observed JP. "It is very In general, Mindtree backs this
conducting on-road trials using cars subjective to the end customer and the approach as a feasible one from a
provided by project partners Ford, early adopters to begin with." customer acceptance perspective. "In
Jaguar Land Rover and Tata Motors any given geographical area, driving the
European Technical Centre. In fact, Some industry players have suggested car around with a fewer number of
almost all major interested parties are various ways of measuring safety, such disengagements per so many miles
partnering up. as the number of disengagements per could be a good measure to quantify
that this is safe enough to go. In the
end, though, the person who will
decide is the user," JP commented. This,
he suggested, would entail more user
surveys to fully understand consumers'
When we speak to industry players,

views.
we keep hearing that simulation is

"Vehicle manufacturers and Tier 1s are
putting safety ratings and standards
good for all the base use cases.

compliance first and foremost," said
Gopal. "Many of those things continue
to evolve. That is the journey that our
Simulation can realistically create

customers are taking."
the scenarios to gauge the car's

Concluding, JP confirmed that
Mindtree's Connected Car Center of
response for around 65% to 70% of

Excellence is working with "all the
leading Tier 1s, global vehicle
the time. The remaining 30% has to

manufacturers and semiconductor
suppliers." Again, the partnership
aspect was flagged as pivotal to the
be done in a real world scenario

industry's future development, with JP
adding: "There is a confluence in terms
of partnerships as the players work
together to solve some of the critical
challenges that connected and
autonomous cars face through this
disruption."
Steel unlimited
Steel still relevant? More than

ever, says supplier
Michael Nash discusses innovations in steel with Brad Davey of ArcelorMittal,
who outlines the role that new material products can play in forward-looking
T
mobility concepts
“
he list is long and growing of autonomous passenger cars to BMW, Intel, and Mobileye plan to
OEMs, suppliers and market within a few short years. ‘bring solutions for highly and fully
technology companies with automated driving into series
licenses to test autonomous driving 2021 is proving to be a key date; production’. Others, too, are looking
technology on public roads in various Ford, for example, has said it will at 2021 as the start of commercial
parts of the world. And the produce a high-volume, fully autonomous drive programmes.
pressure’s on – several have autonomous vehicle for ride-sharing
announced plans to bring their first purposes in 2021, the same year that The rise of autonomous driving
technology will see active safety and
advanced driver assistance systems
(ADAS) play an increasingly important
role. These technologies are already
Right now, we don’t see any limits

becoming more widespread in all
vehicle segments, and are no longer
confined to high-end luxury models.
to what we can do with steel. We While they often take the limelight,
are working on grades beyond what

active safety features can only do so
much in the event of a crash, and many
we have currently announced, and

experts believe that crashes will still
occur despite the potential mass rollout
we think steel will remain the

of autonomous vehicle technology.
Blake Zuidema, ArcelorMittal’s Director
dominant material of choice in

Automotive Product Application, has
said, “While vehicle autonomy and
connectivity will improve safety and
vehicle design
reduce injuries due to vehicle crashes,
no technology is perfectly reliable.
There is no reason to believe that
vehicle autonomy will prevent all
crashes. When they do occur, even in
those much more infrequent
occasions, occupants will still need the
strength and safety of steel to protect
them.” Furthermore, he said, the
scenarios that cannot be anticipated
are the scenarios for which there
remains a need for a strong steel safety
cage in autonomous vehicles.
As such, the continued development

of passive safety features is just as
important as ADAS technology, and
will continue to be even as highly
autonomous vehicles hit the market.
That’s the view of Brad Davey, Chief
Marketing Officer for the steel

“
Steel unlimited
Today, vehicle occupants sit in distinct locations

in the vehicle, which allows OEMs to design
accordingly and identify areas that need crash
absorbent or high-strength steels. But if people
are strapped in differently, safety becomes much
more challenging
supplier’s global automotive to grow at an annual rate of 1.01% and lightweighting needed for
business, who believes that vehicle between 2015 and 2035. With this autonomous vehicles at a lower cost
safety starts with choosing the right increase in miles comes the increased than any other lightweight material.”
materials in design. likelihood of a crash occurring.
Furthermore, increased mileage
Four pillars for future-
proofing
“Autonomous vehicles are going to means that consumers will spend
change the world as they start to roll more money on fuel. As a result,
out,” Davey predicted. “The timeframe reducing fuel consumption through
for it is quite uncertain, but it will vehicle lightweighting is likely to remain With these trends in mind, Davey
certainly bring issues that may not a crucial strategy for OEMs, alongside outlined a number of approaches that
have been foretold. For example, there the use of crash-absorbent materials in ArcelorMittal is taking to prepare for
is likely to be an increase in the number certain areas. According to Zuidema, the future of the automotive industry
of miles that vehicles travel, because it “Autonomous vehicles will be subject and the rollout of autonomous
makes driving so convenient.” to the same fuel economy regulations vehicles.
as non-autonomous vehicles and the
A recent report by the US Federal weight reduction and fuel economy “There are four pillars that drive our
Highway Administration (FHWA) improvement afforded by today’s innovations,” he explained, “the first of
suggests that the miles travelled by advanced steel solutions will still be which covers new products and
light-duty passenger cars is projected needed. Steel still provides the safety solutions.”
Steel unlimited
“
S-in motion is ArcelorMittal’s steel demonstrator to
promote its capabilities in automotive structural BIW
applications, including mild steels, press hardened steels
(PHS) and advanced high strength steels (AHSS)
When it comes to autonomous cars, the hot topic

right now is safety. I don’t see the automotive
industry reaching zero collisions, so there will
always be a role for safety solutions
ArcelorMittal is preparing to roll out the Commercial production commences The third pillar sees the company
next generation of its core steel grades, in 2017. focus on quality and service leadership
Usibor and Ductibor. An aluminium- on a global basis for its customers,
silicon coated press hardened steel, “The second pillar is our work on said Davey, “and then finally we are
Usibor 2000 boasts greater strength downstream technologies with always working on expanding our
than its predecessor Usibor 1500. It is various different partners,” Davey geographical footprint.”
designed for use in strength-critical continued. “Here we have solutions
passenger compartment parts, such as like laser welded blanks for cold
rockers, pillars, roof rails and cross formed steels and press hardened The safety challenge
members. Ductibor 1000 is also a high- steels.”
strength press hardenable steel, but it Looking ahead, Davey stressed the
offers enhanced energy absorption in Also known as tailored blanks, laser- uncertainty that comes with the rise of
localised areas of the vehicle. This welded blanks (LWBs) are sheets of self-driving vehicles. “It will likely lead
makes it suitable for use in front and metal that combine several grades to some level of increased automotive
rear rails as well as lower B-pillars. of steel, each of which can vary in production, but we don’t think that in
thickness and have different and of itself will have a measurable
Both of these grades of steel are coatings. This is often done in impact on ArcelorMittal,” he admitted.
available for qualification testing in vehicle design in order to cater to “When it comes to autonomous cars,
Europe, and Ductibor 1000 is also highly specific requirements in the hot topic right now is safety. I don’t
available for testing in North America. localised areas. see the automotive industry reaching

“
Steel unlimited
Autonomous vehicles are going to change the

world as they start to roll out. The timeframe for
it is quite uncertain, but it will certainly bring issues
that we may not have foretold
zero collisions, so there will always be example. Several forward-looking grades beyond what we have
a role for safety solutions.” concepts and prototypes, such as currently announced, and we think
Volkswagen’s Sedric, the Mercedes- that steel will remain the dominant
Among the companies considered as Benz F 015 and the Yanfeng material of choice in vehicle design.”
forerunners in self-driving vehicle Automotive Interiors XiM17 concept
technology is Tesla. However, amidst include highly flexible and adaptable In Zuidema’s words, “Autonomous
the enthusiasm for its Autopilot seating platforms. vehicles will continue to need the
“
system, which enables semi- safety, affordability, light weight, and
autonomous vehicle operation, the “Today, passengers sit in distinct environmental friendliness of advanced
company has been the subject of a locations in the vehicle, which allows steel body structure solutions well into
series of negative headlines. the OEM to design accordingly and the future.”
identify areas that need crash
In May 2016, a Tesla driver was killed absorbent or high-strength steels,” Clearly, any proponent of a particular
when his vehicle collided with a Davey observed. “But if people are material would favour theirs over
tractor-trailer in central Florida. This strapped in differently, then the another, but many of a material’s
prompted an investigation by the typical crumple zone areas may properties are best exploited when
National Highway Traffic Safety change, for example. Safety becomes used for specific applications, rather
Administration (NHTSA), which much more challenging.” than for an entire vehicle. It often
concluded that it had not found a
“safety-related defect trend” with the
Autopilot system. The crash was
preceded by a fatality in January 2016,
when a 23-year old Chinese driver was
The inherent safety of the vehicle

killed when his Tesla Model S collided
with a street-sweeper truck at
through its use of crash absorbent

highway speed. Other Autopilot-
related crashes have also been
and strong materials will remain.

reported.
Such incidents aside, Davey thinks
This is where steel will continue to

that self-driving technology could
struggle in certain conditions. “When
play a key role

there is black ice on the road and the
tyres lose grip, it doesn’t really matter
what sensors or computers you have
on board,” he stated. “Therefore, the
inherent safety of the vehicle through
its use of crash absorbent and strong
No limits?
materials will remain. This is where
steel will continue to play a key role.” goes unmentioned, for example, that
the aluminium-bodied Ford F-150
OEMs and suppliers are currently Despite the challenges presented by sits on a high-strength steel frame.
exploring how autonomous driving autonomous driving and future And it is in the direction of a multi-
could also allow for occupants – no mobility, Davey remains confident in material mix that the automotive
longer tasked with driving the vehicle steel’s ability to outperform the industry appears to be heading. Steel
– to adjust their positions; this variety of other materials vying for a may be one of the oldest automotive
includes not only seat location but place in vehicle design: “Right now, materials, but the efforts of its
also switching from upright seating we don’t see any limits to what we suppliers have ensured that it
to a bed-like configuration, for can do with steel. We are working on remains highly relevant.
Powertrains of the future
In the pursuit of driverless

cars, don’t forget the
powertrain
Automation will play a significant role in future vehicle propulsion development,
W
learns Freddie Holmes
hile much attention is placed whether the vehicle drives on an
on the autonomous car in autonomous-only basis, or whether
terms of safety and driving the driver can swap between
comfort, rarely does the discussion conventional and automated driving.
turn to its effect on powertrain
architecture.
Going fully
With all aspects of driving taken out of autonomous
the hands of a human operator, what
will be required of the engine and its According to the scale of automation
associated drivetrain and devised by Society of Automotive
transmission? The answer, says Dean Engineers (SAE), a Level 5 vehicle has
Tomazic, Chief Technology Officer at no requirement for a human operator
FEV North America, will depend on to drive the vehicle manually, and will

“
Robo-cabs will have a completely different set of

requirements to a vehicle that you and I currently
drive. With an autonomous-only EV, for example,
why would you need a 300kWh motor when
150kWh would be fine?
typically be used in a ride-share Smooth operation and many drivers said to be ‘driving
environment, or as a personal shuttle. drowsy’. In July 2017, one Uber driver
In this case, the would-be driver will Automation will also have an impact on in Utah reportedly worked a 20-hour
most likely use travel time as an the lifecycle of a powertrain, and shift behind the wheel to maximise
opportunity to catch up on work, engineers will face something of a profits, and according to the European
browse the web or simply relax. This Catch-22 situation. In many cases, Transport Safety Council, no
“
means that harsh acceleration and autonomous cars will be far better professional driver should drive
braking is completely unnecessary in utilised than a traditional vehicle continuously for more than two hours
practically all scenarios, and here, the through the rise of on-demand mobility without “at least a 15-minute break”,
aim of the game is comfort. services. The powertrain will be subject although it says this is a “rule of
to less aggressive driving – a plus point thumb.”
“With respect to the powertrain, the in terms of maintenance – but it will
requirements for an autonomous- also clock up far more mileage. Driverless vehicles will suffer no such
only vehicle will be simplified,” issues, and will ultimately be able to
explains Tomazic. “Robo-cabs will have Autonomous ride-share services will operate continuously, pending
a completely different set of have hundreds of vehicles in operation mechanical failure. “With autonomous
requirements to a vehicle that you within a city, which may run 24 hours city driving through a ride-share or
and I currently drive. With an
autonomous-only EV, for example,
why would you need a 300kWh motor
when 150kWh would be fine?”
We are looking at a wide variation of

But the same can also be said for an
automated vehicle of Level 4 and
powertrain technologies that we will

below, which will be able to transfer
between human and computer-
see in the field. It depends on who

driven control. In most cases, these
vehicles will be privately-owned by
we are talking about, where people

those who still want to drive in
certain situations, and do not want to
live and what they want to do with

relinquish their travel needs to a
computer.
the vehicle
“Think about a vehicle that in the
morning can drive you to work while
you drink a coffee and check email,
but then on the weekend allows you to
go for a drive in the countryside and
have some fun,” continues Tomazic. a day, seven days a week – a stark robo-cab model, the stress on
“The requirements are completely contrast to human working conditions components in the vehicle will not be
different in terms of driving dynamics; today. as high as it is now,” agrees Tomazic.
in the morning, you want a mellow “From an acceleration perspective,
experience so you don’t spill your In May 2016, New York City authorities the time-to-torque will also look
coffee, but then the power and torque announced proposals to cut cab different because it has to be a
requirements are vastly different if you driver shifts to no longer than 12 smooth ride. Passengers may be
want to drive sportily.” hours, due to road safety concerns, talking or reading email, and they
don’t want to be jerked around. The that automation could spell the end
requirements of the powertrain there for diesel and gasoline cars.
are not as aggressive,” he affirms.
“ICEs will be part of the mix,” he says. “It
Indeed, demand in terms of is not only battery electric vehicles
acceleration and braking will not be as (BEVs) that will see autonomous driving
“
high as a privately-owned vehicle capability.” For example, rural dwellers
outside of the city, and this is likely to may want to commute into the city, and
extend the lifetime of the engine, would be likely to do so in autonomous
drivetrain and its associated mode. However, the same consumer
components. However, that is not to may wish to travel out of town – from
say that these vehicles will run Detroit to Chicago for instance. “These
constantly for a duration of ten years drivers might be limited from a range
before being replaced or repaired, perspective with an EV, so an ICE may
points out Tomazic. be required here,” suggests Tomazic.
With autonomous city driving through a ride-

share or robo-cab model, the stress on
components will be reduced. From an acceleration
perspective, the time-to-torque will also look
different because it has to be a smooth ride
Uber, for example, requires that its As for automated fuel-cell vehicles
vehicles were manufactured no (FCVs), don’t hold your breath. Today, a
earlier than 2010 in order to operate lack of infrastructure to support these
in New York City, and future vehicles vehicles outside of well-invested
may well be refreshed even more regions such as California will prove a
frequently. In future, Tomazic particular sticking point. “An FCV with
suggests that ride-share vehicles may autonomous drive capability is
operate for a maximum period of probably not so high on the list of the
four-years before simply having the OEMs right now,” he remarks. “FCVs are
powertrain replaced or updated. really the minority now, and even by
“There is an inherent benefit [of 2035 could still only account for just 1%
autonomous driving] from a of all sales. Within the next ten years, I
powertrain perspective as we know do not see them playing a major role.”
it,” he affirms.
The underlying trend is that there will
Don’t forget the ICE be no single answer to the powertrain
as vehicles approach full automation.
Writing for Automotive World in July Powertrain architecture will vary
2017, Lisa Jerram, Principal Research depending on a range of factors, and
Analyst at Navigant Research, noted will include both traditional combustion
a likely “shift to electric vehicles in engines and electrified variants. “We are
these automated shared mobility looking at a wide variation of
services”. But despite this, Tomazic powertrain technologies that we will
points out that it is “definitely see in the field,” Tomazic concludes. “It
possible” for vehicles of Level 4 and depends on who we are talking about,
below to use traditional ICE where people live and what they want
propulsion, and debunks the myth to do with the vehicle.”

HD maps for AVs
Automation - it's so much

clearer in HD
High-definition mapping is essential for the transition from driving
automation to autonomous driving, believes TomTom. By Megan Lampinen
F
rom the traditional road atlas to different driving situations. The third
the Waze app, maps today are is mapping, but the maps are far
an essential part of a trip. from average.
Specifically, they help drivers plan - or
simply follow - a visual route from A "With automated driving, the map
to B. But take away that driver from has a different function. You are no
the equation, as autonomous longer looking for a map to get you
technology promises to do, and maps from A to B; it's more of a map that
suddenly need to play a different role. helps you with localisation,
It is a role contingent upon smart and perception and path planning," he
connected technology, and without it, told Megatrends.
autonomous vehicles will never find
their way to market. Localisation
TomTom specialises in maps and Individuals tend to take it for granted
increasingly in maps for automated that they know exactly where they
vehicles, but it knows that maps are, i.e. in the middle of the road, in a
alone won't build an autonomous specific position within the lane, at
fleet. "We see three core building roughly a specific latitude and
blocks to a driverless future," said longitude. An autonomous vehicle
Tomaso Grossi, Senior Product does not necessarily know where it is
Marketer at TomTom Automotive. To located on the road. GPS positioning,
start with, the vehicle needs sensing with an accuracy level of about 5
capability, consisting of what it can metres, won't cut it for autonomous
see through the sensors, such as driving. "A high definition map allows
cameras, radar and LiDAR. A second you to enable accurate positioning at
pillar is what Grossi refers to as decimetre level, whereby the vehicle
'driving policy', the instructions to the can see where it is in the lane," said
vehicle regarding how to behave in Grossi.
“
HD maps for AVs
With automated driving,

the map has a different
function. You are no
longer looking for a map
to get you from A to B;
it's more of a map that
helps you with
localisation, perception
and path planning
A handful of different techniques This is a question that OEMs will need vehicles, as highlighted by recent
exists on the market for localisation, to address for many different white hat hacks. Researchers at the
some of which involve using sensors technologies. As Grossi added: "Sure, University of Washington, University
to correct GPS measurements. some technologies might be feasible, of Michigan, Stony Brook University,
TomTom tried and tested this and might even be the right and UC Berkeley figured out a way to
“
approach but found it very technology for short-term trick the vision systems used by an
expensive and not necessarily implementation, but when you are autonomous car by putting stickers
scalable. "While it might be scalable looking at global implementation, on street signs. The stickers
for a small track or a quick your mind needs to be focused on disrupted the way in which the
demonstration, these technologies the scalability of the technology." machines read and classified signs.
are difficult to scale for global For example, a stop sign could be
implementation in vehicles on the Perception and path misinterpreted as a 45mph sign,
planning
road. We strongly believe that leading to disastrous safety
providing an HD map and consequences.
localisation layers represents a
much more scalable approach," he Perception is the second key role "As a human, if you see a stop sign
explained. maps will play in autonomous with stickers on it, you still know that
While it might be scalable for a small track or a

quick demonstration, these technologies are
difficult to scale for global implementation in
vehicles on the road. We strongly believe that
providing an HD map and localisation layers
represents a much more scalable approach

“
HD maps for AVs
As a human, if you see a stop sign with stickers

on it, you still know that it's a stop sign and that
you should stop there. A vehicle could interpret
it as something different. If those stop signs were
also represented in a high-definition map, it
would help address that issue
it's a stop sign and that you should In general, as automation increases, innovation at different stages - every
stop there. A vehicle could interpret so will the navigation options. time there's a bigger gap."
it as something different," Grossi Drivers already have the choice of
observed. "If those stop signs were the shortest route, the fastest route One way to build trust is to share the
also represented in a high-definition and the most economical route, but information that the car has with its
(HD) map, it would help address that there could be more. Specifically, occupants. "When an automated
issue. It aids perception by also TomTom envisions an 'effortless vehicle changes lanes, slows down or
providing redundancy to the car route', which is a route that includes accelerates, occupants are not always
sensors." Essentially, explains Grossi, the most automated driving time aware of why it is doing this. We
the vehicle thought-process would possible. "The route might take thought of having different screens
run as follows: This looks like a stop longer but the occupant would be that show what the vehicle is seeing,"
sign but it’s not clear – what does the able to be more productive during he said. Notably, what the vehicle is
HD map say? The map confirms that that time," Grossi explained. seeing doesn't necessarily mean only
it is indeed a stop sign, and so this what the sensors are telling the
vehicle must stop. This sort of experience will require a vehicle, but also what the on-board
leap of faith from vehicle occupants map is telling the vehicle. This includes
Path planning is the third main role - faith that the vehicle knows what it such information as the number of
for maps of the future. This tackles should do and that it will do exactly lanes and the road geometry of these
the question of how the vehicle that. Drivers have already been lanes. "We thought of it as overlaying
knows exactly in which lane it needs building that trust through the the TomTom HD map onto the road
to be in order to travel from one automated features available at the or, at the same time, overlaying what
point to another. "This is not just moment. "When we introduced the the sensors are seeing onto a screen,
navigation as in, 'take a right at the portable SatNavs, the key there was for example," he added.
next exit'. It is also recognising that to build trust in a small box, a small
the vehicle needs to turn into the piece of hardware that was telling This technology has not yet been
right lane now if it wants to be able people to go left or right," said implemented, but TomTom is
to turn right off the highway, for Grossi. "We were building trust in conducting such user experience
example," said Grossi. "This is the innovation in this little machine." exercises with an eye towards the
difference between the use of maps future. "It was more of an exercise of
for navigation and the use of HD Trust in the machine understanding how we would want
maps for autonomous or automated to portray our technology to make
driving. This is the pillar where The next step involved building other the passenger feel safer and more
TomTom is specifically active." services like traffic, parking or informed," Grossi clarified.
weather for automotive clients.
Future vision "Drivers have begun to trust a system While his team is specifically focused
that tells them to go in a different on product marketing for TomTom's
If these are the building blocks of direction than usual because there unit on autonomous driving, the
autonomy, what does the navigation might be traffic or there might not be realisation of Level 5 autonomy won't
experience of the future look like parking available. That was another come any time soon. As Grossi
with such maps supporting it? level of trust. Now with our cautioned: "What we have now is more
TomTom recently conducted a user autonomous driving products, we driving automation than autonomous
experience exercise to examine ways need to build trust into this new driving. The very end goal of driverless
of bridging normal navigation and technology," he said. "You could see autonomy, of robo-taxis, is still very far
autonomous driving. it as a path towards building trust in away in the future."
Multi-modal HMI
Multi-modal HMI essential

to build trust in AVs
The human-machine interface is evolving to incorporate artificial intelligence,
allowing for the safe operation of self-driving technology. By Michael Nash
T
he rollout of highly automated achieved with a multi-modal human- working on technology that bridges
vehicles is by no means just machine interface (HMI) incorporating the gap between non-autonomous
around the corner, but several artificial intelligence (AI). This is a and autonomous driving.
OEMs are currently testing self-driving relatively new area, but one that could
technology on public roads and some be critical to market acceptance of The OEM has plans for a specific
have plans to bring their efforts to self-driving technology. manoeuvre for the human driver to
“
market before 2025. Aside from transfer control responsibility to the
developing the technology and Next-gen evolution car. Speaking to Automotive World in
ironing out any glitches to ensure it his previous capacity as Senior
operates safely and efficiently, Most HMI systems on the market Technical Leader – Safety and Driver
OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers are faced today are relatively simplistic in Support Technologies at Volvo Cars,
with a great number of issues before comparison to advanced, multi- Erik Coelingh said, “It's about pushing
the widespread rollout of highly modal concepts that use AI, but two pedals. It has to be very clear
autonomous vehicles is realised. several companies are eager to push when it's on or off. We do not want it
the boundaries. Volvo Cars, for to be able to activate or deactivate by
One of the primary challenges is example, has a team of experts mistake.” Coelingh, who is now at the
establishing trust between car and dedicated to HMI research and Autoliv-Volvo driver assistance
driver, something which could be design. The team is presently systems joint venture Zenuity, added
The system needs to be intuitive but also needs to

make sure that it only adds to the safety of vehicle
occupants and other road users
- Malin Ekholm, Volvo Cars Safety Centre

“
Multi-modal HMI
The use of multi-modal HMI allows drivers to

access controls and functions much faster
than with conventional control concepts
involving buttons and switching
- Thomas Vöhringer-Kuhnt, Continental
at the time, “Once the car is driving in the US alone, and that nearly one- the current situation are our
autonomously, we also have to third of all US drivers between 18 and watchwords when it comes to
provide trust to the driver. If you want 64 years old read or send text or email developing new concepts for a holistic
to sit relaxed, read a book, do messages while driving. human-machine dialogue. Only in this
something else, then you need to way can drivers place their trust in
trust the vehicle you are in.” Continental is one of many suppliers fully automated driving systems.”
currently developing HMI technology
Crucially, the HMI must be developed with two goals in mind – reducing A suite of multi-modal functions will
with safety at its core, said Malin driver distraction and enabling be necessary to provide relevant
Ekholm, Senior Director at Volvo Cars autonomous driving. It recently information to vehicle occupants,
Safety Centre. “The system needs to announced that it was researching making sure they know how the car is
be intuitive but also needs to make and testing a range of display and behaving and why. Thomas Vöhringer-
sure that it only adds to the safety of control concepts that are designed to Kuhnt, Head of HMI User Experience
vehicle occupants and other road maximise the relationship between & Design at Continental, told
users,” she said. It cannot, she added car and driver. Megatrends that the use of multi-
for clarity, be detrimental. modal HMI also “allows drivers to
“On the road towards fully automated access controls and functions much
As such, techniques like voice driving, our biggest challenge will faster than with conventional control
command and gesture control could be the new role of drivers and concepts involving buttons and
play a greater role in minimising driver the resulting new needs and switches."
distraction. This, added Ekholm, will requirements,” explained Karsten
continue to be important regardless Michels, Head of System and Advanced Raising questions
of autonomous driving technology Development in Continental’s Interior
rollout, as vehicle occupants are likely division. “Up to now, drivers have This view was echoed by Arnd Weil,
to need to remain vigilant and aware been solely occupied with the task of Senior Vice President and General
behind the wheel for a long time. driving; in the future, however, they Manager at Nuance Automotive. “If
will become critical users and the driver wants to listen to music, for
A recent paper published by the US monitors in the cockpit. To meet this example, it’s tedious to go through
National Highway Traffic Safety challenge, they have to know at all various apps and select it with buttons
Administration (NHTSA) states that times how the vehicle is behaving and on the steering wheel,” he explained
distracted driving leads to over 420,000 the vehicle’s current driving mode. to Megatrends. “It’s so much easier if
injuries and 3,100 fatalities every year Transparency and an awareness of we use natural language voice
Multi-modal HMI
recognition technology. The same idea

goes for inputting a destination into the
navigation system, accessing the phone
book and writing emails.”
Weil is confident that multi-modal HMI will

Autonomous cars –
play an increasingly important role as What passengers want to
consumers demand greater levels of
connectivity, convenience and a more do instead of driving
personalised driving experience. However,
the most benefits will be seen when
combining these different modes with AI.
“AI is a big field and probably needs a

Nuance research from 400 drivers in the UK and US
narrower definition,” he says. “If we’re

sheds light on what drivers plan to get up to behind
talking about deep learning, which many

the wheel while their cars drive themselves
people consider as AI, it is dependent on

the data obtained to actually do that
learning. This raises the question of data
Touch or talk? Hey car! Could
privacy, data ownership, and who has
How do passengers prefer to
you please…
access to what data and can leverage it.”
interact with a self-driving car?
With the use of AI, the HMI can become

66 % Touchscreen 70 %
a personal on-board assistant that

learns about driver and vehicle
56 % Voice
… set destination and
occupant preferences. It can access data

Knobs, buttons or manage my route 68 %
31 % physical controls
stored in the Cloud on previous driving 9% Gestures
scenarios and identify patterns. “When

…
stations 60 %
connected cars become autonomous,

6% Eye movement
these assistants must leverage AI to

keep their passengers connected,
informed and engaged in the event they
need to take the wheel,” Weil noted.
My car, your car, our car?
“But what happens if somebody hacks Car ownership vs. shared mobility
that history and knows the car? This

person could basically control it
remotely, which is a huge issue and a
bottleneck for rolling out the 14% 52% 25%
technology.”
Bold expectations ... would like to use an ... would like to own an ... would rely on a mobility
autonomous car though a autonomous car, but may service when necessary
Investment in AI across the automotive

mobility service for most occasionally use a mobility
industry has been growing. In January

trips, but would still like to service
own one and use it every
2017, Nissan’s Chief Executive Carlos

now and then
Ghosn confirmed the launch of Seamless

Autonomous Mobility (SAM) – a system
58 % All by themselves?
that marries cameras, radars and LiDAR

Drivers expect to spend most time alone,
with AI, allowing cars to become smart

when in an autonomous car
enough to know when they should or

should not attempt to negotiate difficult
driving tasks. If deemed necessary, the Top 5 activities to do while
car can request help via a command
centre, and a person can access the driving in a self-driving car
situation before taking action over the
wireless network.
... with a
A month later, Ford announced that it co-passenger
would spend US$1bn over the course of ... alone
five years on developing a virtual driver
71 % Having conversations
system for autonomous vehicles with

63 % Relax, look out the window 58 % Listen to radio
Pittsburgh-based start-up Argo AI. At the

64 % Listen to radio 56 % Relax, look out the window
23 % Messaging
time, the then Ford Chief Executive Mark

42 % Talk on the phone
42 % Browse the internet 24 % Look up places
Fields said that this would help to

36 % Messaging
strengthen the company’s “leadership in

bringing self-driving vehicles to market in
the near term.”
Online survey conducted by Nuance through SurveyMonkey amongst 400 drivers in UK and US, April 2017

Multi-modal HMI
“ The system needs to be intuitive but also needs to make

sure that it only adds to the safety of vehicle occupants
and other road users - Malin Ekholm, Volvo Cars Safety Centre
“
At CES in 2017, Mercedes-Benz technology, which is used for image will be extremely important for the
declared that it was working with recognition and understanding the safe rollout of self-driving technology.
Nvidia to launch an AI-powered car car’s surroundings,” Alex Mankowsky, “If we look five or ten years out, the
“within 12 months”. This is just part of a Futurist at Daimler’s Futures Studies HMI must be trustworthy, intelligent
an on-going collaboration between & Ideation unit, recently told and users must be able to interact
the two companies that is focused on Automotive World. “Advancements in with it just as they would with another
deep learning and AI. this field have exceeded our boldest human,” he suggested. “Think about
expectations from a few years back.” movies where intelligent car systems
“The hottest trend in developing talk to drivers and can provide a long
advanced driver assistance systems Weil thinks that on-going investments list of helpful services, from taking
(ADAS) seems to be deep learning in AI from both OEMs and suppliers over the driving task to paying for fuel.
This is the direction the industry is
heading in.”
In the autonomous car of the future,

occupants could give the vehicle a
Transparency and awareness are

variety of commands through a range
of media, from voice and gesture to
our watchwords when developing

haptic control. A concept car recently
showcased by ZF at its 2017 Global
new concepts for a holistic

Press Event was able to navigate
around a track without input from the
human-machine dialogue. Only in

driver, but the passenger could take
control by using a round haptic
this way can drivers place their

controller positioned on the centre
console.
trust in fully automated driving

While only a prototype, it provided a
glimpse into the future and the
systems
evolving interaction between vehicle
occupants and their cars. With a
variety of new, smart HMIs on the
- Karsten Michels, Continental cusp of entering the market, the
possibilities seem limited only by the
rate at which consumers are ready to
accept innovative technologies.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine Q3 2017

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AUTOMOTIVE MEGA

...to the Q3 2017 issue of Automotive

Autonomous cars will be ready to roll ISSN: 2053 776X

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BMW's search for sheer driverless

The start-ups seeking success in

6 Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Multi-modal HMI essential to build trust

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Those developments were in full view

Consumers and cities

10 Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Exhibit 1: Findings from customer and city research

Consumers want a traditional OEM to produce the self-driving car (46%)

4 To consumers, a self-driving car is electric or hybrid (66%)

8 Key impediments to them are public acceptance and technological readiness

9 SDVs primarily seen as last mile solution complementing public transport

10 Cities prefer having many private players offering self-driving taxis

88% already expected to have

The tide has turned. Big cities

around the world are dropping

their earlier wariness and beginning

to embrace autonomous vehicles

Recent examples across the world

Exhibit 2: How AVs Benefit Individuals and Society

Improved road safety More efficient public transport spending

Safety Improved reliability &

Equitable access to mobility

collaboration with local and state

As more cities embrace autonomous

transport, conventional automotive

companies will have to move away

from pure manufacturing and

toward mobility services

12 Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Municipal leaders worldwide are looking

Autonomous trucking provides

One of the biggest disruptions in the

Trends driving the future of

14 Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Autonomous driving technologies and vehicles

Level 3 autonomous trucks will • V2X communication for

The business case for autonomous driving is still

companies, and algorithm-based

• Deep learning through algorithms: Given that the number of autonomous

16 Automotive Megatrends Magazine

BMW's search for sheer

BMW board member Dr Ian Robertson

The OEM talks not of semi-

According to the ﬁve levels of

Indeed, he believes Level 3 is

very much in our DNA. And it's very

much in the brand positioning that our

more and more of a challenge,

you can't have that sheer driving

18 Automotive Megatrends Magazine

From the point of view of what you can do as a

One person's excitement is another person's

In December 2016, Tencent bought

20 Automotive Megatrends Magazine