Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 3.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 3.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock
Analysis Excel (Ver. 3.0)
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters
Company
Current Stock Price (Rs)
Face Value (Rs)
No. of Shares (Crore)
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore)
Key Financials - Trend
Parameters
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR)
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x)
Average Return on Equity (5-Years)
Average P/E (5-Years, x)
Latest P/E (x)
Warning! Excel can be a wonde
the past. But it can be a we
destruction to predict the future
of what you are getting into. He
always equal garba
Details
AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD
49 Remember! Focus on decision
5.0 Look for disconfirming evidenc
1.1
53
Please! It's your money. Please
Details
results of this excel cause you
11.6% designed this excel to aid your
8.9% you alone are responsible for yo
26.0% live peacefully ever after! I am
1.7 wants you to do the hard wo
6.2% companies on your own. But I'd
compass instead of a map, for
17.9
map with territory and lose it
13.1
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze
past. But it can be a weapon of mass
on to predict the future! So be very careful
you are getting into. Here, garbage in will
always equal garbage out.

ber! Focus on decisions, not outcomes.

disconfirming evidence. Calculate. Pray!

t's your money. Please don't blame me if

of this excel cause you to lose it all! I've
d this excel to aid your own thinking, but
are responsible for your actions. I want to
acefully ever after! I am not a sadist who
you to do the hard work by analyzing
es on your own. But I'd rather give you a
ss instead of a map, for you can confuse
ith territory and lose it all. All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Reserves 12 13 17 19 19 19 18 20 20 23
Borrowings 41 42 41 46 39 35 35 45 51 57
Other Liabilities 22 26 35 41 45 50 57 56 49 56
Total 81 86 97 111 109 110 116 126 125 141

Net Block 37 35 36 36 35 34 29 30 35 37
Capital Work in Progress 0 - - 0 0 0 - 1 3 1
Investments 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Other Assets 42 50 61 74 72 75 87 95 88 102
Total 81 86 97 111 109 110 116 126 125 141

Working Capital 20 24 26 33 27 25 29 39 39 47
Debtors 17 21 20 30 23 24 28 35 31 37
Inventory 20 22 30 31 40 40 47 49 48 54
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,618
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 67 70 62 78 59 60 65 71 60 56
Inventory Turnover 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 4 4
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.4 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.0 4.2 5.4 6.2 5.4 6.5
Debt/Equity 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0
Return on Equity 2% 11% 18% 9% 4% 3% 5% 7% 10% 6%
Return on Capital Employed 8% 5% 14% 12% 10% 9% 10% 12% 13% 14%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 89 110 117 142 141 142 159 184 189 241 284
% Growth YOY 23% 7% 21% -1% 1% 12% 16% 3% 28%
Expenses 81 103 104 131 132 133 149 171 175 224 264
Material Cost (% of Sales) 51% 54% 56% 57% 63% 56% 65% 66% 63% 67% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 5% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 10% 8% 8% 7% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 12% 10% 11% 9% 10% 7% 10% 8% 8% 8% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 9% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 17% 15% 10% 9% 9% 12% 5% 5% 5% 4%
Operating Profit 8 7 13 11 9 9 9 12 14 17 20
Operating Profit Margin 9% 6% 11% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Other Income 0 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -2
Other Income as % of Sales 0.3% 3.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% -0.5% -0.6%
Depreciation 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4
Interest 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 9
Interest Coverage(Times) 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2
Profit before tax (PBT) 2 3 6 3 2 1 2 3 4 4 6
% Growth YOY 106% 67% -53% -41% -13% 32% 58% 36% -8%
PBT Margin 2% 3% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2%
Tax 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
Net profit 0 2 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 4
% Growth YOY 412% 96% -45% -59% -24% 77% 50% 33% -27%
Net Profit Margin 0% 2% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
EPS 0.4 1.9 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.3 1.6 3.8
% Growth YOY 412% 96% -45% -59% -24% 77% 50% 33% -27%
Price to earning 25.7 10.0 10.7 6.8 10.6 14.0 12.3 12.5 15.2 35.4 13.1
Price 10 19 40 14 9 9 14 21 34 58 49
Dividend Payout 135.0% 31.7% 16.2% 12.1% 29.0% 46.4% 30.9% 29.3% 24.0% 18.4%
Market Cap 10 21 43 15 10 10 15 23 37 63
Retained Earnings -0 1 3 2 1 0 1 1 2 1
Buffett's $1 Test 4.0

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 11.6% 10.9% 11.3% 14.9%
PBT Growth 8.9% -6.6% 17.7% 25.3%
PBT Margin 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7%
Price to Earning 15.3 15.3 17.9 21.0

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 51% 54% 56% 57% 63% 56% 65% 66% 63% 67%
Change in Inventory 2% 2% 4% 0% 6% 0% 3% 0% -2% 3%
Power and Fuel 5% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 10% 8% 8% 7%
Other Mfr. Exp 12% 10% 11% 9% 10% 7% 10% 8% 8% 8%
Employee Cost 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 9%
Selling and Admin Cost 17% 15% 10% 9% 9% 12% 5% 5% 5% 4%
Other Expenses 1% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Operating Profit 5% 2% 3% 9% -5% 6% -1% 8% 11% 2%
Other Income 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% -1%
Depreciation 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Interest 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Profit Before Tax 2% 3% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Tax 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1%
Net Profit 0% 2% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Dividend Amount 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4%
Reserves 15% 15% 17% 17% 18% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16%
Borrowings 51% 49% 42% 42% 36% 32% 30% 36% 41% 41%
Other Liabilities 27% 30% 36% 37% 41% 45% 49% 45% 39% 40%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 46% 41% 36% 33% 32% 31% 25% 23% 28% 26%
Capital Work in Progress 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1%
Investments 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets 52% 58% 62% 66% 67% 68% 75% 76% 70% 73%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 21% 24% 20% 27% 21% 21% 24% 28% 25% 26%
Inventory 25% 26% 30% 28% 36% 37% 41% 39% 39% 38%
Cash & Bank 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Cash Flow Statement
AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 2 1 4 -2 8 11 6 1 12 9 52
Cash from Investing Activity -6 -0 -2 -3 -1 -1 1 -4 -10 -4 -32
Cash from Financing Activity 4 -0 -2 5 -7 -9 -7 3 -2 -4 -19
Net Cash Flow -0 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1
CFO/Sales 3% 1% 3% -1% 6% 8% 4% 0% 7% 4%
CFO/Net Profit 572% 61% 90% -91% 859% 1593% 495% 45% 504% 490%
Capex** 375 315 212 364 565 607 937 1156 1638 1238
FCF -373 -314 -208 -366 -557 -596 -931 -1,155 -1,626 -1,229 -7,355
Average FCF (3 Years) -1,337
FCF/Sales -417% -286% -178% -258% -395% -420% -586% -629% -862% -510%
FCF/Net Profit ### ### -5173% ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Earnings Power Value (Bruce Greenwald)
Read the book - Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained P
Explanation - Earnings power value (EPV) is a technique for valuing stocks by making an assumption about the sustainability
of capital but assuming no further growth. EPV formula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

Company Name AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD

Latest Year Ended Mar-18

Calculation of Normalized Earnings

(Rs Crore) Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Sales 142 159 184 189 241
EBIT 6 8 10 11 13
Less - Adjustment 0 0 0 0 0
EBIT (Adjusted) 6 8 9 11 13
EBIT Margin'(Adjusted) 4% 5% 5% 6% 6%
Tax Rate 49% 32% 36% 37% 36%
Earnings After Tax (Adjusted) 3 5 6 7 9
Depreciation 2 3 3 3 4
Maintenance Capex (See Table Below) 607 934 1,151 1,637 1,228
Earnings After Tax (Normalized, A) -601 -926 -1,142 -1,627 -1,216
Reported Profit After Tax (B) 1 1 2 2 3

EPV Process (as per Greenwald's book, slightly modified) -

1. Start with operating earnings, i.e. EBIT. Adjust any one-time charges. I deduct 0.5% of reported EBIT as this adjustment
2. Apply a tax rate to the adjusted EBIT. I use the actual tax rate calculated from the Income Statement. After reducing this tax,
3. Add back Depreciation
4. Subtract Maintenance Capex
5. After these four steps, you arrive at Normalized Earnings
6. Divide this Normalized Earnings number by the Discount Rate to arrive at EPV. I use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.
7. Note that Greenwald's process as per his book is slightly more detailed than what I have used here

Calculation of Maintenance Capex

(Rs Crore) Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Fixed Assets (PPE) 34 29 30 35 37
Net Sales 142 159 184 189 241
PPE/Sales 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.19 0.15
Change in Sales 1 17 25 5 52
Total Capex 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238
Growth Capex 0 3 5 1 10
Maintenance Capex 607 934 1,151 1,637 1,228

Calculating Maintenance Capex, as per Greenwald's book -

1. Calculate the Average Gross Property Plant and Equipment (PPE) / Sales ratio over 5-7 years
2. Calculate current year’s increase in sales
3. Multiply PPE/Sales ratio by increase in sales to arrive at Growth Capex
4. Maintenance Capex = Total Capex figure from the cash flow statement minus Growth Capex calculated above
(Bruce Greenwald)
nd by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained Page 93 onwards)
king an assumption about the sustainability of current earnings and the cost
rmula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

EPV with Different Cost of Capital

Discount Rate EPV Net Cash** Total EPV Per Share
10% ### 4,561 -7,599 -7,044
12% ### 4,561 -5,572 -5,166
15% -8,107 4,561 -3,546 -3,287
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 53
EPV as % of Market Cap -10457%

** Change the "Cash & Bank" number in "Balance Sheet" sheet

(Row #19) so that the correct number automatically reflects here

5% of reported EBIT as this adjustment

e Income Statement. After reducing this tax, we arrive at Adjusted Earnings After Tax

use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.

at I have used here

over 5-7 years

owth Capex calculated above

 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 4,618 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (1,537) (1,373) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,768) (1,409) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (2,033) (1,447) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (2,236) (1,421) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (2,460) (1,396) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (2,706) (1,371) Sales 11% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (2,841) (1,285) PBT 18% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (2,983) (1,205) FCF 17% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (3,132) (1,130) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (3,289) (1,059) 10 FY27
10 -32,891 (10,590) 10
Intrinsic Value (19,067) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 53 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -100% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 4,618 Year 1-3 20%
(1,604) (1,432) Year 4-6 15%
(1,925) (1,535) Year 7-10 10%
(2,310) (1,644) Discount Rate 12%
(2,656) (1,688)
(3,055) (1,733)
(3,513) (1,780)
(3,864) (1,748)
(4,251) (1,717)
(4,676) (1,686)
(5,143) (1,656)
(77,152) (24,841)
Intrinsic Value (36,842)
Current Mkt. Cap. 53
Premium/(Discount) to IV -100%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 1.6 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 7.1 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 36 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 53 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD
Mar/18

1.6
8.5
14.2

59
53

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (1,337) ###

53
Years 1-5 6-10 ###
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (4,561)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (1,537) 15% (1,373)
2 (1,768) 15% (1,409)
3 (2,033) 15% (1,447)
4 (2,338) 15% (1,486)
5 (2,689) 15% (1,526)
6 (3,011) 12% (1,526)
7 (3,373) 12% (1,526)
8 (3,777) 12% (1,526)
9 (4,231) 12% (1,526)
10 (4,738) 12% (1,526)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (4,833)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 53

Note: See explanation of DCF here

 Valuation
ES LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 0 2 4 2 1 1 1
Net Profit Margin 0% 2% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1%
Return on Equity 2% 11% 18% 9% 4% 3% 5%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 10
Current P/E (x) 16.7
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 199
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 64
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 53

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
2 2 3 26% 28%
1% 1% 1%
7% 10% 6%
 Intrinsic Value Range
AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair va
EPV -5,572 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two questio
Dhandho -19,067 ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Can
Ben Graham 36 59 understand this business?
DCF -30,430 Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less n
Expected Return 64 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and useful
Current Market Cap. 53 be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "ba
of-the-envelope".

Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in t

future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidenc
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18
Sales 50 47 45 48 46 62 64 70 68 82
% Growth YOY -8% 33% 41% 46% 49% 33%
Expenses 46 43 42 43 42 58 59 64 64 77
Operating Profit 3 3 3 5 4 4 4 6 4 6
Other Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1
Depreciation 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Interest 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2
Profit before tax 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2
PBT Margin 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2%
% Growth YOY -16% 52% 69% -37% 61% 23%
Tax 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
Net profit 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
% Growth YOY -14% 38% 28% -37% 77% 44%
OPM 7% 7% 7% 10% 8% 7% 7% 8% 6% 7%
COMPANY NAME AKAR AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 1.08
Face Value 5
Current Price 49.4
Market Capitalization 53.29

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 89.44 109.6 116.84 141.83 140.92 142.03
Raw Material Cost 45.85 59.63 65.7 81.2 88.37 78.98
Change in Inventory 1.68 2.37 4.47 -0.58 8.23 0.34
Power and Fuel 4.62 9.59 11.46 15.46 16.77 17.94
Other Mfr. Exp 11.07 11.49 13.23 12.47 13.51 9.72
Employee Cost 4.93 6.3 7.63 8.68 9.28 10.42
Selling and admin 15.52 16.57 11.26 12.95 12.67 16.86
Other Expenses 1.18 1.66 -0.7 -0.59 -0.67 -0.14
Other Income 0.25 3.93 0.26 0.11 0.09 0.09
Depreciation 2.14 2.63 2.41 2.29 2.36 2.41
Interest 4.41 4.63 4.89 6.22 5.38 4.91
Profit before tax 1.65 3.4 5.69 2.7 1.59 1.36
Tax 1.25 1.35 1.67 0.47 0.66 0.67
Net profit 0.4 2.05 4.02 2.23 0.93 0.69
Dividend Amount 0.54 0.65 0.65 0.27 0.27 0.32

Quarters
Report Date Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17
Sales 49.72 46.65 45.1 48.05 45.76 61.99
Expenses 46.39 43.43 41.73 43.48 42.17 57.7
Other Income 0.03 0.21 0.06 0.32 0.09 0.05
Depreciation 0.73 0.88 0.85 1.08 0.9 0.91
Interest 1.53 1.52 1.6 2.51 1.86 1.86
Profit before tax 1.1 1.03 0.98 1.3 0.92 1.57
Tax 0.41 0.32 0.06 0.63 0.31 0.58
Net profit 0.7 0.71 0.93 0.68 0.6 0.98
Operating Profit 3.33 3.22 3.37 4.57 3.59 4.29

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 5.39 5.39 5.39 5.39 5.39 5.39
Reserves 12.05 13.34 16.6 18.52 19.13 19.45
Borrowings 41.31 42.04 40.86 46.35 39.27 35.38
Other Liabilities 21.77 25.52 34.6 40.77 45.1 49.93
Total 80.52 86.29 97.45 111.03 108.89 110.15
Net Block 36.68 35.39 35.5 36.14 35.23 33.93
Capital Work in Progress 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.39
Investments 2.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16
Other Assets 41.64 49.74 60.79 73.72 72.49 74.67
Total 80.52 86.29 97.45 111.03 108.89 110.15
Receivables 16.51 20.89 19.85 30.46 22.73 23.52
Inventory 19.96 22.41 29.68 30.94 39.72 40.41
Cash & Bank 1.44 2.42 1.63 1.86 0.83 1.17
No. of Equity Shares 5394005 5394005 5394005 5394005 5394005 5394005
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 2.29 1.26 3.61 -2.01 7.82 10.99
Cash from Investing Activity -6.45 -0.26 -2.47 -2.93 -1.45 -1.41
Cash from Financing Activity 3.9 -0.03 -1.93 5.17 -7.4 -9.16
Net Cash Flow -0.26 0.97 -0.79 0.23 -1.03 0.42

PRICE: 9.529091 19.024762 39.946842 13.869474 8.978824 8.950769

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

158.78 183.59 188.67 241
103.29 120.57 118.11 161.46
5.45 -0.81 -3.17 6.62
15.51 13.95 14.36 16.77
15.43 14.45 14.93 20.2
12.45 13.09 15.39 20.97
8.37 8.89 9.45 9.77
-0.13 -0.46 -0.6 1.44
0.96 0.16 0.28 -1.32
2.66 2.9 3.14 3.7
5.81 6.71 7.15 8.45
1.81 2.83 3.86 4.97
0.58 1.01 1.41 1.77
1.23 1.84 2.46 3.2
0.38 0.54 0.59 0.59

Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18

63.67 70.03 68.09 82.48
59.28 64.49 63.76 76.52
0.07 -0.89 0.06 -0.97
0.94 0.96 0.95 0.95
1.86 2.87 1.96 2.11
1.66 0.82 1.48 1.93
0.48 0.39 0.43 0.52
1.19 0.43 1.06 1.41
4.39 5.54 4.33 5.96

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

5.39 5.39 5.39 5.39
 18.42 19.58 20.12 22.6
35.2 44.8 51.06 57
57.15 56.19 48.55 55.51
116.16 125.96 125.12 140.5
29.48 29.52 34.98 37.23
0.84 2.52 1.16
0.11 0.11 0.08 0.08
86.57 95.49 87.54 102.03
116.16 125.96 125.12 140.5
28.11 35.48 31.17 36.85
47.27 48.97 48.34 53.8
1.31 1.35 1.54 2.24
5394005 5394005 5394005 10788010

10 10 10 5

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

6.04 0.82 12.3 8.67
1.16 -3.63 -9.97 -4.47
-7.05 2.85 -2.14 -3.51
0.14 0.05 0.19 0.7

13.898889 21.227059 34.457368 58.011905

1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08

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