Katayama 1

Kasey Katayama

Sally Neas

UWP 1Y

12/10/2018

Burglaries in Davis: Is There a Correlation?

Abstract

From the start of the 2018-2019 academic year at University of California,

Davis, there has been a sudden rise in the number of burglaries. I believe that

burglaries do not happen at random; there is a noticeable pattern and reoccurrence

of these incidences. I believe that students are connected to the cause and effect of

burglaries because of multiple reasons. Students can be inattentive, careless, and

naïve; these are observable mannerisms that burglars notice and look for. I used a

primary research method of sending out surveys to students in Davis, California. As

for my secondary research method, I did online research about past crime alerts and

crime reports. I also used scholarly sources from the University of California, Davis

online library to find resources that can prove that burglars do not target victims by

chance. My prediction is that the number of burglaries has gone up because there is

an association with students and why burglars would target them. From my primary

research method, I was able to draw explanations as to why students are targets of

burglaries. With these results, I am able to provide evidence for my argument that

students should be more aware of these burglaries for reasons that they could be

the targets because of how they are perceived to burglars.

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Introduction

In 2016, Davis, California there were 29 reported burglaries for that entire

year. Within the past three months, Davis has had 43 reports related to burglaries.

From these numbers, it is clear that the number of burglaries have gone up by 1.48

times as much as it was two years ago. The numerous crime-alert notifications that

students have been receiving of burglaries happening in the Davis, California area

these past three months has quickly surpassed last year’s crime alerts for burglaries.

Due to this occurrence, I started to notice the tendency and created a theory. The

theory is that the time students started to move back to Davis, California for the

school year, that was the start of ongoing burglaries and it is connected to whom

these burglars are robbing from. The main targets and sudden spark for burglaries

could be the students at the University of California, Davis. Through surveying I was

able to get further insight as to why it would make sense that burglars would target

the community of students in Davis, California. In addition to surveying the student

community, I also researched Davis online sources that provided past Davis crime

reports and articles that would prove that burglaries occur because of patterns in

the environment and pattern in the targeted victims.

Methods

The primary research method of this discourse community research project

is surveying. Surveys were sent out to the University of California, Davis student

community specifically women in the Alpha Chi Omega sorority. The survey was in a

form of an online link. This survey consisted of three questions. The first question

was “Are you aware of the recent burglaries in Davis?”. The second question was
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“Who do you think these burglars target?”. Lastly, the follow up question was “From

your previous answer, why do you think burglars target these people?”. There were

32 respondents to the survey.

Results

From the primary research of sending out a communal survey, I was able to

conclude that out of the population that responded to the survey, 32/32

respondents are aware of the recent burglaries in Davis. The second question of my

survey asks who do the respondents think are targets for burglars, 30/32 voted that

students are the targets, and 2/32 voted both students and local residents are the

main targets of the reoccurring burglaries. After collecting my results, I decided to

organize my data by theme. There are two separate themes in my primary research.

I split the answers to the second question into themes of who the directed victims of

burglaries are. The first theme is for the respondents who answered that students

were the targets of burglaries. Then, the second part of the theme is for the

respondents who answered that local residents were the targets of burglaries. The

third question asked for an explanation and reasoning to clarify their answer for

question two. I also separated question three by what the respondents answered in

question two since it is connected these questions are associated with each other.

The feedback that I have drawn from question three varied widely, but there were

multiple repeated answers. The repeated answers show that there is a common idea

among University of California, Davis students about why burglars pursue specific

targets. Fortunately, almost every recipient of the survey thought that students were

the victims of the burglaries and that was some support for my argument. The
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respondents’ explanations as to why students were more susceptible to crime is that

students are busy with school, internships, jobs, and other extracurriculars, which

means they are barely home, students can also be careless, irresponsible, and naïve.

As for the two respondents who selected local residents as the targets for burglars,

their explanations were that burglars would break into any place they can get into

which follows the counterargument of my argument that the logic of who burglars

violate is completely random. Below, is the data and evidence that supports my

hypothesis that students are the main targets for burglaries in Davis, California due

to their inattentive persona.

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This data is from

https://www.crimereports.com/city/Da
vis and I filtered the time span to be the
crime reports from the past three
months. This data shows that within the
past three months, there have been 43
thefts and burglaries in Davis. It also
shows the details of each crime report.

This data is from http://police-

statistics.universityofcalifornia.edu/2016/
ucd.pdf and it shows the number of thefts
from previous years from 2012-2016. I
drew my results and analysis from the
thefts from 2016 since they are the most
recent reported year.

With both of these sources, I was able to conclude that the number of burglaries in
Davis for the past three months have been greater than the number of burglaries in
Davis for the entire year of 2016. We can assume that the number of burglaries of
Davis, California is at an upward trend.
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Discussion

A lot can be concluded from the results section. Based off the results, I

discovered that the University of California, Davis student community agrees with

my observation that students are the main targets for the recent burglaries. With

this conclusion, I have support for my argument that there is a pattern in burglaries

and that burglars target specific victims for reasons that are all related to the

unaware, observant behavior of students. With evidence, it can be settled that

burglars target victims because of their translated oblivious appearance. From my

survey I was able to conclude and agree with the respondents’ explanations as to

why burglars pursue college students at the University of California, Davis. There

explanations varied; the overall frequent reoccurring explanations were that

students are busy with school and extracurriculars so they are usually not home

during the day, they are too careless and forgetful to lock the doors of their homes

or cars, and students have not lived in Davis as long as the local residents have so

they are not as familiar with the Davis surroundings. All these are mannerisms that

can be observed from the watchful eye. From the first part of my secondary research,

results confirmed the start of my theory that the number of burglaries has gone up

since last year. Online sources from the Davis police station and University of

California, Davis website confirmed that burglaries not only increased from last year

but from every year as long as six years ago. The number of burglaries has just been

increasing since 2012. Just from the past three months 43 reported burglary reports.

More evidence that was collected from the secondary research was from the

University of California, Davis online scholarly sources. The second part of my

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secondary research talks more about the mannerisms and traits of victims and the

environment that burglars pick up on. This evidence was another factor in my

theory that there is a cause and effect for burglaries. Burglars observe the patterns

and routines in communities and this influences the effect and trends of burglaries.

In “The Impact of Neighborhood Context of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Burglary”,

the authors, Nobles, M., Ward, J., & Tillyer, R., of this article describe the patterns

that are correlated to burglaries. The patterns that they describe to be connected to

the cause of rates of burglaries are residential instability, family disruption, and

population density. Another similar peer reviewed article from the University of

California, Davis library online resources is “Detecting Serial Residential Burglaries

Using Clustering”. The main idea of the article is that burglaries can be predicted

from previous burglary incidences. The aspects from the authors’ argument that are

predicted to trace future burglaries are the similarities in environment, behavior,

and traits of the victims. From the authors’ collective data method, they were able

to prove that burglaries usually occur because of characteristics in modus operandi,

residential characteristics, stolen goods, spatial similarity, or temporal similarity.

From their results, they were able to accomplish that the clustering method of

predicting burglaries by these characteristics have an accurate chance of reducing

burglary cases. The last scholarly source of my secondary research that supports my

theory that burglaries aren’t at random, and there is a pattern to them is an article

in The British Journal of Criminology called “Infectious Burglaries: A Test of the Near

Repeat Hypothesis”. This article argues that housing diversity can be a part in

repeated cases of burglaries and victimizations. Their argument is that physical

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construction and general appearance of victims are the main observant

characteristics that burglars are wary for. The evidence and research taken from

these online articles are relevant to my argument because it supports my argument

that burglars target specific victims according to their detected appearance of

seeming unconscious and negligent.

Conclusion

From my online surveys that I sent out to my sorority, I was able to conclude

that students are almost certainly the main targets of Davis burglaries. My surveys

also established explanations as to why students are targets; the respondents’

explanations also act as supportive evidence for my argument that burglars target

students in Davis due to observed routines and knowledge of the environment.

From my collected research, the number of burglaries has in fact gone up. The

increase in numbers shows more proof to my argument that burglaries have been

trending and it’s a result of a certain inclination. From my research methods, results,

and analysis of my data I can confirm my claim that there has been a recent spike in

the number of burglary reports and as we go more into my research we are able to

achieve the reasons as to why there is this incline. The discovered reasons explain

why burglars are targeting students which all supports my argument that burglaries

are not a crime at random, they occur because of observed sequences and

appearances.
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Works Cited

http://police-statistics.universityofcalifornia.edu/2016/ucd.pdf

https://www.crimereports.com/city/Davis,%20CA#!/dashboard?incident_types=A
ssault%252CAssault%2520with%2520Deadly%2520Weapon%252CBreaking%25
20%2526%2520Entering%252CDisorder%252CDrugs%252CHomicide%252CKidn
apping%252CLiquor%252COther%2520Sexual%2520Offense%252CProperty%25
20Crime%252CProperty%2520Crime%2520Commercial%252CProperty%2520Cri
me%2520Residential%252CQuality%2520of%2520Life%252CRobbery%252CSexu
al%2520Assault%252CSexual%2520Offense%252CTheft%252CTheft%2520from
%2520Vehicle%252CTheft%2520of%2520Vehicle&start_date=2018-08-
20&end_date=2018-11-
18&days=sunday%252Cmonday%252Ctuesday%252Cwednesday%252Cthursday
%252Cfriday%252Csaturday&start_time=0&end_time=23&include_sex_offenders=f
alse&lat=38.58735682017159&lng=-
121.71684265136719&zoom=11&current_tab=list&shapeIds=&shape_id=false

https://www.surveymonkey.com/analyze/uavsVwWj_2FqZxfEHvamI0S2tLEy8lkc9
8JD2895copc4_3D&tab_clicked=1

Townsley, M., Homel, R., & Chaseling, J. (2003). INFECTIOUS BURGLARIES: A Test
of the Near Repeat Hypothesis. The British Journal of Criminology, 43(3), 615-633.
Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/23639045

Borg, Boldt, Lavesson, Melander, & Boeva. (2014). Detecting serial residential
burglaries using clustering. Expert Systems With Applications, 41(11), 5252-5266.

Nobles, M., Ward, J., & Tillyer, R. (2016). The Impact of Neighborhood Context on
Spatiotemporal Patterns of Burglary. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency,
53(5), 711-740.