UNCERTAINTY:

Uncertainty (σ) can be

defined as std. deviation
about the mean, doubt in
calculated AEP.

The uncertainty of individual

assessment processes must be
combined to define a total P50 = μ
uncertainty for the project. P75 = μ - 0.67σ
P90 = μ - 1.28σ
In classical approach it is assumed P90 = μ - 1.28σ
that uncertainty is normally distributed. P95 = μ - 1.96σ
value is the mean of the distribution.

P50 value is the mean of the

distribution.

If the individual uncertainty components are independent, the total uncertainty can
be calculated using the relationship below:

𝑁
𝜎 2 = ∑𝑖=1 𝑐𝑖 2 𝜎 2

σ - combined uncertainty
ci - sensitivity
σi - individual uncertainty component
N - number of uncertainty components

 Total uncertainty is more sensitive to changes in larger values.

 Individual uncertainty components has their specific way of estimation or
calculation related to their nature.
 Uncertainty Classes:

Generally, uncertainty coming from the numerical model is the highest, this shows
that proper and accurate numerical modeling of the site is very important in terms
financial risk.
Uncertainty Classes

Vertical Plant
Site Historic Wind Future wind Spatial
Extrapolatio Performance Other
Measurement Resource Variability variation
n & Losses

 Instrument Period of Extrapolation to Internal to Model input .Availability .O ther

Accuracy Representative Hub Height variability .Horizontal .Wake Effect
 Measurement Data .Climate change Extrapolation .Turbine
Interference Reference site .Wind speed .Other Performance
 Data Quality Wind speed .Frequency Uncertainty .Electrical Losses
 and Metadata Frequency .Distribution .Environmental
Distribution .(future) .Curtailment
(Past) .Other Losses
On site Data
Synthesis

Model
Uncertainty

UNCERTAINTY OF PHOTOVOLTAIC:

The uncertainty quantification of solar energy yield calculation is important for

managing the financial risk of an investment in photovoltaic system .The yield
estimation is subject to the uncertainties introduced by each element in the PV
modeling chain .The first and most important element is the solar resource .Apart
from uncertainties related with the measurement and /or estimation of solar resource,
also the long term variability of the resources must be taken into account.
Furthermore, variation on the performance of the various component affecting the
energy yield are quantified. Finally, also the simulation procedure used to estimate
the energy yield of a PV plant are subject to uncertainties and must be considered.
Thus, the correct identification and quantification of all uncertainty in data input and
modelling procedure allow developer and investor to certain the financial risk

Figure 1 illustrate the energy flow in a grid – connected photovoltaic system

describing the main energy conversion step taking place within the system. A
Limited but selected collection of measured and calculated parameter is shown in
fig 1 .Each of these parameter is linked to an uncertainty as it will be explained in
the next section of this document.

Fig 1.Energy flow in a grid-connected photovoltaic system

METHODOLOGY:

The uncertainties of the different steps in the modelling chain are classified in two
main groups: uncertainties by Matric, uncertainties in the PV Yield.

1. UNCERTAINTY METRICS:
The term “uncertainty” used in this report refers to the root mean square error
(RMSE) associated with the estimation of a quantity. The RMSE is composed of a
systematic part (MBE, Mean Bias Error) and a non-systematic part (σ, standard
deviation of the error) which represents the random contributions to the error around
the mean value. The definition of these accuracy measures are presented below in
equations (1) to (8), where is the actual quantity,
the estimated one, the average value and the variable n is the number of
samples. The RMSE, MBE and MAE are normalized over the average value “”
and presented as nrmse, nbme and nmae respectively.

2. UNCERTAINTIES IN PV ENERGY YIELD:

When a grid-connected photovoltaic system is considered, the viability of the

project will depend chiefly on the amount of AC energy that can be expected from
the system on a yearly basis. This amount depends essentially on the quantity of
solar radiation available at the site, and the actual performance of the system itself.
It is best evaluated using a procedure summarized schematically in Figure 1
 Global horizontal Eh
Radiation at site

Transposition model

Tilted radiation Eh
n plan of PV array

Performance ratio of
System PR

AC energy Eac
delivered

Figure 1 - Procedure to estimate the energy delivered by a grid-connected PV system.

The starting point is the solar resource. It is most generally provided as solar
radiation on a horizontal surface, Eh, expressed in kWh/m2 /day. Photovoltaic
modules are usually not horizontal, but tilted towards the South in order to maximize
the amount of incident solar energy. The amount of solar radiation incident on the
array, Et, can be calculated from Eh using what is called a transposition model.
Finally, the photovoltaic array converts this solar radiation into DC energy, Edc, and
the inverter converts the DC energy into AC energy, Eac, which is sold to the grid.
The efficiencies of these two conversions can be considered separately, but they are
often lumped together in a single number called the Performance Ratio of the system,
PR, which is a non-dimensional number simply defined as: PR = (Eac·G* )/(Et·P* )
where P* is the array rated power under so-called 'standard test conditions' (STC),
expressed in kW, and G* is a reference irradiance equal to 1 kW/m2.

UNCERTANITY OF WIND ENERGY:

The evaluation of a wind resource and the subsequent estimation of the annual
energy production (AEP) is a highly uncertain process. Uncertainty arises at all
points in the process, from measuring the wind speed to the uncertainty in a power
curve.

There are Three major aspects of site assessment uncertainty are presented here.
First, a method is presented for combining uncertainty that arises in assessing the
wind resource.
Second, uncertainty in wind turbine power output and energy production is
characterized.
Third, a method for estimating the overall AEP uncertainty when using a Weibull
distribution is presented.
While it is commonly assumed that the uncertainty in the wind resource should be
scaled by a factor between two and three to yield the uncertainty in the AEP,
Wind energy site assessment gauges the potential for a site to produce energy from
wind turbines. When wind energy development is under consideration, a site
assessment is undertaken. Specifically, wind energy site assessment is the process
of evaluating the wind resource at a potential wind turbine or wind farm location,
then estimating the energy production of the proposed project. The wind resource at
a site directly affects the amount of energy that a wind turbine can extract, and
therefore the success of the venture. The quality of the wind resource is primarily
quantified by the mean wind speed at the site, although the turbulence intensity,
probability distribution of the wind speed, and prevailing wind direction are also
important factors. Once the wind resource has been assessed at a site, the expected
annual energy production, AEP, of a selected wind turbine is calculated. This
calculation combines the expected wind resource with the wind turbine(s) power
curve and the expected energy losses in order to estimate how much energy the wind
turbine(s) will actually produce at the site. The AEP will ultimately help determine
the profitability of the undertaking.
The accuracy and precision of the wind resource assessment and AEP calculation
must also be determined when evaluating a potential site. Wind resource assessment
is an uncertain process, and a large number of factors ranging from wind speed
measurement errors to the inherent physical variations in the wind contribute to this
uncertainty. Overall, these various individual sources of error must all be accounted
for to provide an estimate of the total uncertainty of the wind resource. Furthermore,
power curves and energy loss terms are uncertain as well. When the wind resource,
the power curve, and the energy losses are combined to estimate the AEP, the
uncertainties from all the factors contribute to an overall AEP uncertainty. This
uncertainty is critical in estimating the risk associated with the potential venture.
This works aims to provide a method for site assessment uncertainty analysis
founded on a sound mathematical basis. The methods for combining uncertainty
sources in a given calculation rely heavily on the calculation itself. Thus, when
describing the determination of the wind resource uncertainty or the AEP
uncertainty, the actual method for determining the wind resource or the AEP must
be explained as well

FLOW DIAGRAME OF UNCERTANITY:

WAKE Other AEP

AEP LOSS Losses (P50)

AEP
(P75)

AEP Uncertainty
AEP
(P50) Determination
(P90)

AEP
(PXX)

However it is not easy to figure out the uncertainty of a project. Most of the
parameters are estimated, some of them are calculated.
There is no standard yet, but there is one coming, probably in 2018 (IEC 61400-15,
Assessment of Wind Resource, Energy Yield and Site Suitability Input Conditions
for Wind Power Plants)

Impact of environmental uncertainties on offshore wind farms

Uncertainties:
• Wind direction: up to 40% reduction in power output
• Wind speed
• Turbulence intensity

Horns Rev offshore wind farm with turbines in each other's wake

Wind direction aligned with turbine rows

Uncertainties in individual wind turbines:

Uncertainties:
• Wear and tear Surface roughness
• Production tolerances Geometry
Insect contamination Ice formation
Uncertainty Quantification performing multiple simulations:

Conventional CFD Simulation

 Model Parameter
 Initial condition Computer code Numerical solution
 Boundary condition

Uncertainty quantification in CFD:

Pre-processing Post-processing

Computer code

Input Existing black-box CFD Output quantity

Probability Simulation software of internet

Conclusion
Uncertainty quantification in wind power prediction:
• Uncertainty in wind direction results in 40% reduction of wind farm power output
• Also uncertainty in individual turbines by wear-and-tear and production tolerances
• Increasingly uncertain power production affects electricity grid stability
• Uncertainty quantification is discretization of probability space