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The Key Difference
The Mittals are expanding. POSCO is also geared into an expansion mode. We feel
Nippon Steel and US Steel - among the top ten largest steel producers in the world -
would also be having a similar strategy in place (in the medium term future) for their
expansions either organically or inorganically. This is the living and practical example of
what is going on in the steel industry - which is, in technical or financial terminology,
called as CONSOLIDATION. Significantly, this consolidation is happening in the global
STEEL industry, which comes under the category of COMMODITY.
Now let's look at the domestic scenario. Tata Steel - which is among the lowest cost
steel producer in the world - did not want to miss the lucrative business opportunity and
went on to acquire Corus - the largest producer of steel in the UK with a capacity thrice
that of Tata Steel - in its attempt to expand globally. The AV Birla group too (non-ferrous
metals - which is again a commodity), does not want to miss the bus, just as Agarwals of
the Vedanta group (again a non-ferrous metals player) are doing in their effort to expand
their capacities. All these names are India's leading business houses or empires.
This scenario of consolidation unfolding at the global and domestic levels among the
major commodity giants in their attempts to grab a larger share of the global market has
been driven largely by the prices of their respective commodities, viz. steel, aluminum or
zinc. This is the general scenario in the commodity-type businesses in which the most
successful investor WARREN BUFFETT does not like to take an exposure. Why?
Simply because price remains the sole determining or motivating factor for buying these
commodities, regardless of the brand name. For instance, a buyer of steel would be happy
to buy steel from the cheapest producer of steel regardless of the brand. The utility of the
steel manufactured by Tata Steel would also be fulfilled by steel produced by any other
steel producer such as Jindal Steel or SAIL. Hence, irrespective of the brand of the
commodity, the cheapest would be the winner. However, the moot question is - If Warren
Buffett would not be interested in a commodity business, then which type of companies
attract him? The answer: Consumer Monopolies. So which type of companies fall under
this category? Warren liked companies like Coca Cola, Wrigley (makers of chewing
gum), UST (makers of tobacco), Marlboro etc. While some of these brands may be
unknown to investors in India, they are consumer monopolies in the US or across the
globe. He believes in consumer monopolies that are 'bomb-proof', which, in other words,
rule the markets, in addition to their inherent pricing power.
Let's understand this taking live examples of India's two leading companies. The first
is Tata Steel operating in the commodity business, while the second is ITC, owners of
Superbrands such as Gold Flake, Wills and many more. Before taking through the
historical financial data since last nine-ten years which would make the picture clearer,
let's understand the basic first. If Tata Steel wants to increase the finished steel prices,
then it may have to lose some of its business to its competitors whose products are
available cheaply. In sharp contrast, it is quite hard to convince a smoker of ITC's Gold
Flake cigarettes to switch over some other brand despite umpteen number of hikes in
Gold Flake prices. This is the crucial difference between a commodity player and a
company operating in the consumer monopoly space - at least in the Indian context.
Ideally, investors following Warren's strategy should look at the key difference such
as an upward trend in EPS over a longer period of time of, say, 5 to 10 years. ITC shows
an consistent upward trend (in 2005-06, ITC declared a bonus and split the share, hence
the decline in EPS) since 1997, while Tata Steel's EPS has been quite erratic until 2002 -
when the steel cycle started on its upward move. But for the cycle, Tata Steel's EPS
would have still remained erratic. Hence, unlike Tata Steel, ITC's growth has been
consistent and not cyclical, which makes it one among the most likely consumer
monopolies in India. Also, the difference in returns generated by these two companies
since 1997 is huge. While Tata Steel generated around 344 per cent return from 1997 till
date, ITC has generated a return of 778 per cent in the same period-more than double that
of Tata Steel. Hence, a consumer monopoly presents a lucrative investment opportunity
than a commodity play over a longer period of time. The key difference lies in searching
such consumer monopolies and holding them forever as they would continue to grow into
the distant future.
HISTORICAL EARNINGS
Year EPS (Rs)
ITC Tata Steel
Mar' 06 5.95 63.35
Mar' 05 88.28 62.77
Mar' 04 64.31 47.48
Mar' 03 55.41 27.53
Mar' 02 48.48 5.09
Mar' 01 41.00 15.05
Mar' 00 32.29 11.49
Mar' 99 25.40 7.67
Mar' 98 21.44 8.75
Mar' 97 14.14 12.75
Recommendations
Spanco Telesystems Face Value - Rs 10 Buy Rs 175
Ticker: 508976 Equity: Rs 15.82 crore H/L: Rs 224/75
● Spanco Telesystems has come out with a fairly impressive quarter over and
above H1FY07 numbers, which calls for re-rating of this counter, especially
after restructuring of its business action (by de-merging its BPO business) and
consequently reducing the equity capital
● During the September ended 2006 quarter, the company has reported a top
line growth of around 178 per cent to Rs 123 crore as against Rs 44 crore
reported during the previous corresponding quarter. Its bottom line too kept
pace with its top line growth and soared by 184 per cent to Rs 9.11 crore
against Rs 3.2 crore. While on the other hand for the first half of the current
fiscal its top line grew by 127 per cent to Rs 182 crore while its bottom line
grew by 14 crore. The reduction in the equity capital was to the tune of 21 per
cent (during H1FY07 over H1 FY06), which currently stands at Rs 15.82
crore (Rs 19.97 crore)
● The company has recently received a letter of intent from the Indian Railway
Catering and Tourism Corporation for setting up a call center for 'Railway
inquiry system'. Given the fact that it is a leading provider of networking and
integrated solution systems to various MNC's in addition to satisfying the vast
requirement of the defense sector, we feel investors with the long-term time
horizon of atleast 4-6 quarters in the perspective can enter at current levels of
Rs 174
Technicals
Momentum To Sustain
Sensex has continued its upward march, has gone on to touch and sustain above the
psychological figure of 13000 by posting an all time high of 13300.69 on 7.11.06
indicating the sustainability of its intermediate uptrend. Sensex is comfortably quoting
above the 55-week EMA, the 200-day EMA and also the 55-day EMA indicating
significant stability at lower levels. Sensex is receiving support at 12654 level, the
sanctity of which followed by 12100 level needs to be maintained for the current ongoing
positives to sustain.
Trend (Index): Up Last Index Closing: 13072.51
Support: 13030, 12925 Resistance: 13135, 13200
55 WEEK EMA: 10739.31 100 WEEK EMA: 9474.89
MACD: BUY MODE RMI: BUY MODE
ROC: SELL MODE RSI: BUY MODE
STOCHASTIC: SELL MODE
Street Talk
Value Pick
With many fund houses getting bullish wireless telecom segment, Bharti Airtel (BSE
Code: 532454) looks like a value pick on a long term basis. Investment community can
expect some good in offing in near term horizon.
Momentum Call
Nitco Tiles (BSE Code: 532722) has seen a sudden jump in the volumes in last two days,
with some news in the offing the counter may stay in a momentum for short term to
medium term.